You are most likely correct but I cant help but see some unpredictable obsolescence factors involved in that industry.
I think that's a characteristic of any new emerging technological era..
It was true in the early days of automobile development, represented by the sheer quantity of early automakers that didn't make it through the consolidation phase...
True in the development of a national power grid.. the so called "War of the Currents" Edison promoting a DC system, Tesla backed to Westingshouse for an AC grid.
Was true in the early days of radio, with tremendous wars over patents, turf, etc.. Marconi, Deforest, Armstrong, Westinghouse and others..
And true in the early days of the personal computer, reflected by numerous companies we can name, but are no longer in the personal computer business as they became commodity products.
The Players seem to fall into these categories..
1. Companies that had the right idea, but too soon for the time and lack of suitable technology to implement.
2. Companies that invested tremendous R&D to advance the idea, but failed due to technological or other major problems, yet their technology helped others advance.
3. Companies that did nothing, except pontificate about how the idea to too far fetched, uncertain, and with doubt (so call FUD factor) only to later have their obsolete products over taken by #4.
4. Companies that had the vision and the guts to go for it, advanced the technology though their own R&D and spearheading others in the development of technology, and marketed successful products that did in #3.
Interesting wonderful times we live in to see this....