Okay, this is clearer now.
1)We must distinguish between turndown within the compressor train and external turndown. External turndown can be down to 0% by combined action of VFD and the capacity recycle valve. Internal turndown is influenced by the performance curves on these 2 stages. If you can derive a combined performance curve for these 2 stages, you can find out what min speed ( at close to the surge line) is required to achieve the overall dp of 40.4bar. Someone has claimed that 40% turndown on flow is possible - you can check from this combined performance curve.
2)Since you have 2 parallel trains, each train will most likely have an antisurge valve for protection of each stage (so 2 antisurge valves for each train). There are 2 possibilities for capacity control
Option(a) a conventional approach where these antisurge valves are dedicated to antisurge function, and an overall (master) capacity recycle valve is installed to recycle gas from the combined discharge of the 2 compressors back to the common LP feed of the 2 compressors
Option(b) either the LP or the MP stage antisurge recycle valve on both the trains acts as the overall capacity recycle valves. In this case the master capacity controller goes through a signal selector( which chooses either of the signals from the master capacity controller or the stage antisurge controller) to act on the stage recycle valve.
At the moment, in theory, it seems to me that either of these schemes will work. But there may be concerns with low temperatures and / or hydrates in the LP side of the recycle line in option (a) which may be worse when stage 2 cooler exit gas is colder than normal( which may be due to a combination of turndown and winter time coolant temps). On the other hand, option (a) may be simpler and more stable / more responsive from a process control perspective. Detailed simulations should be carried out for each of these options and engineering solutions to problems found should be worked out for each problem encountered. Finally, weigh up these 2 options, developed in detail to the extent necessary for concept selection, and see which way to go - a team of process, rotating and process controls engineers, together with compressor vendor should ideally be part of this evaluation exercise.