Quote:

Canada's politicians may be catching on pandering...

Fixed it for ya!

Carbon capture is projected to be 25% of global energy consumption by 2100.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/direct-co2-capture-mac...

What kind of expert would think this is a viable route?

You need to reduce the carbon, too... not just capture it.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

We aren't doing carbon capture now. If it becomes 25% of our energy consumption that will be entirely additional consumption. That's a lot of extra heating.

Quote (TugboatEng)

Carbon capture is projected to be 25% of global energy consumption by 2100.

You must have a doctorate in cherry picking. I am continually amazed at your ability to neglect everything in a document except for what you actually want the news to be.

For everyone else, here is what that study actually says, via direct quotes from the author of the study:

"Although DAC will use less resources such as water and land than other NETs [such as BECCS], a proper full life-cycle assessment needs to be carried out to understand all resource implications"

"Inappropriate interpretations [of our findings] would be that DAC is a panacea"

"Policymakers should not make the mistake to believe that carbon removals could ever neutralise all future emissions"

"Even under pessimistic assumptions about fossil fuel availability, carbon removal cannot and will not fix the problem."

Quote (TugboatEng)

What kind of expert would think this is a viable route?

Not even the author of the study thinks this solution is an 'instant' fix to the system. So, as usual, no one is saying the things you're arguing against.

Quote (The Article)

a proper full life-cycle assessment needs to be carried out to understand all resource implications

This is the part that will never be done.

None of those points address my comment.

Quote (dik)

You need to reduce the carbon, too... not just capture it.

Not sure that's true. If you can capture it at the production point and don't release it into the atmosphere, and find a way to store it long term (a lot of ifs). Then, by it's very nature, this carbon capture would be a reduction in emissions.

That being said, I'm not sure the technology is truly there yet. Maybe it is and I don't know about it.

For what it's worth, the CONCEPT of carbo swaps (where you can emit more carbon if you plant trees or such to offset it) is a valid one. That being said, I am highly skeptical. To me, the way it's been proposed is just a way for certain politically connected uber-environmentalists to profit off of the guilt / regulations that the illuminati are imposing on the rest of us.

I'm not onboard with the bio offsets. They turn the CO2 into CH4 which is 300x worse.

"Yet, previous hopes that CCUS was about to fulfil its potential have petered out. The past decade saw high-profile project cancellations and government funding programmes that failed to deliver. On average, capture capacity of less than 3 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) has been added worldwide each year since 2010, with annual capture capacity now reaching over 40 MtCO2. This needs to increase to 1.6 billion tonnes (GtCO2) in 2030 to align with a pathway to net zero by 2050."

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/carbon-capture-in...

I hope more of them come on line soon... there's not much increase in those operating, it would seem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

You hope more come online? Is there any real reduction in CO2 by running these units considering they are primarily fueled by fossil fuel? Will we even be able to build anymore with the refrigerant bans moving forward?

Breaking news:

"Scientists are predicting that global warming will pass 1.5C between now and 2027. This threshold, they suggest, will see more extreme temperatures and weather conditions around the world.

The unprecedented rise in relation to a long-term average is put down in part to human activity such as the burning of fossil fuel, but scientists say that if temperatures do breach the 1.5c threshold it is only likely to be temporary.

The rises are also partly due to changing global weather patterns but scientists have noticed a clear change between pre-and-post heavy fossil-fuel consumption."

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/05/17/global-warmi...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/world-to-likely-surpa...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I have a prediction.... We won't see any real "call to action" until valuable coastal regions start flooding frequently due to sea rise. At that point, there will be real money lost / at IMMEDIATE risk due to climate change.

The problem is that this is not an immediate crisis. Yeah, there are all sorts of theoretical "dangers" out there. But, none of those are really all that scary. At least not compared to the immediate dangers that face all of us every day.... Not being able to pay our bills, worry about our children's education, or their getting into drugs or such. Being able to afford our retirement and such. These are all more real and immediate compared to the dangers of global warming.

I concur... and by that time, who knows where this will go.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Breaking news:

"Scientists are predicting that global warming will pass 1.5C between now and 2027.

That's not news, it's a prediction, the same kind we've been hearing for several decades, other than the time frame is shorter. Either they're desperate to get their agenda enacted quickly, or they think the public's collective attention span is getting shorter, and we'll forget about the prediction by then.

It's just a matter of hanging on, and see what happens, and hope it's for the best. No magic globe... we don't know what the future brings, but based on past information, we may be able to make an educated guess.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

... but based on past information, we may be able to make an educated guess.

You'd think so, but up to this point, the so-called 'educated' guesses made in the past about the present, by the same supposed experts, have all been way off, always on the high side (except for the few that have been around long enough to have made predictions warning about global cooling).

Yup, the media has gleefully repeated all kinds of wild predictions that have not even come close to being true. This has been going on for at least 50 years. Maybe closer to 100 years. These predictions are almost never correct. What's more is that many of them predict true doomsday scenarios that have never materialized.

Heck, the left has done this with nuclear apocalypse (that's when I was a kid in the 1980s). Before that it was in the 60s and 70s it was that the world economy would collapse because of the rapid increase in population and we wouldn't have sufficient food resources to avoid mass starvation. There was all the Y2k panic as well. Every one of these had a pretty big political aspect of it. Trying to influence global politics and change government policy. Heck, the company I worked for spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to update engineering software that were

The religious right is susceptible to these sorts of doomsdays as well. I'm thinking of a small group of religious folks who believe that 2nd coming of has arrived. Not sure that there is very much negative consequences from these predictions for anyone outside of the people who wasted their time believing.

However, you can argue that threat of fascism in the 1930s and communism in the 1950/60s were right-leaning doomsday scenarios as well. These, of course, were genuine existential crises. There were immediate threats that materialized in continuing and ongoing problems in the world.

The part about mass starvation is happening in some parts of the world. Not due to production, but due to distribution, and apathy.

Meanwhile https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/private-jet-use-is...

and of course https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwilliams1/2021/...

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote (Josh)

Heck, the left has done this with nuclear apocalypse (that's when I was a kid in the 1980s).

That was a legitimate risk though wasn’t it?

Or are you referring to nuclear winter?

Quote:

That was a legitimate risk though wasn’t it?

Maybe around the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crises (1961 / 1962).

However, by 1980 (when I started hearing about it) the risk had pretty much ended. I remember sitting in on a school wide presentation in high school (say 1988) where they brought in scare mongers that used scare tactics for 45 minutes to try to convince us to become anti nuclear activists.

On a positive note...it's still 90 seconds until midnight...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The various nuclear apocalypse hypotheses all had a major flaw - they were based on propaganda that wildly exaggerated the strength of each bomb.

More recently, the govt's anti-smoking campaign had a similar flaw - it was based on wild exaggeration of the negative health effects of smoking.

I know someone that has real estate on Bikini Atoll... is anyone interested in buying some?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Things are cooling off, too...

https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-uppe...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Todays's weather report is brought to you by the Indian weather bureau. The annual frequency of tropical cyclones is falling. Annual Frequency of Cyclonic Storm (CS) between 1891 and 2016. Linear trend lines are indicated by dashed lines—black (1891–2018), blue (1951–2018). 10-year running mean is shown by a solid-green line. Source: Extreme Storms, Indian Meteorological Department, Govt. of India. Published June 13, 2020.

Assuming that cyclones are caused by temperature differentials, perhaps the decreasing temperature differential between the Arctic and the equator tends to suppress formation of cyclones, as has also been observed in the USA.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Yup... and things could be different, or the same elsewhere...

"Climate change is helping Atlantic hurricanes pack more of a punch, making them rainier, intensifying them faster and helping the storms linger longer even after landfall. But a new statistical analysis of historical records and satellite data suggests that there aren’t actually more Atlantic hurricanes now than there were roughly 150 years ago, researchers report July 13 in Nature Communications.

The record-breaking number of Atlantic hurricanes in 2020, a whopping 30 named storms, led to intense speculation over whether and how climate change was involved (SN: 12/21/20). It’s a question that scientists continue to grapple with, says Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist at Princeton University. “What is the impact of global warming — past impact and also our future impact — on the number and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms?”

Satellite records over the last 30 years allow us to say “with little ambiguity how many hurricanes, and how many major hurricanes [Category 3 and above] there were each year,” Vecchi says. Those data clearly show that the number, intensity and speed of intensification of hurricanes has increased over that time span."

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hurricanes-fre...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Did you read the rest of the article, or just the parts that support your viewpoint?

Quote (Science News article)

The team found no clear increase in the number of storms in the Atlantic over that 168-year time frame...More surprisingly — even to Vecchi, he says — the data also seem to show no significant increase in hurricane intensity over that time.

I read the whole thing... one of the reasons I posted it. There's a lot of uncertainty out there, and I have no idea of where it is really going. I suspect it could get really ugly. The problem is that the consequences are too great to 'just let it happen'. I also read the attached first reference... it gets 'really heavy'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

Assuming that cyclones are caused by temperature differentials, perhaps the decreasing temperature differential between the Arctic and the equator tends to suppress formation of cyclones, as has also been observed in the USA.

Makes sense. Insulating your house evens out the temperatures inside. I've been saying this for years. Most of the climate change predictions seem to lack common sense.

concur... and reduces the amount of fossil fuel required to heat/cool it.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

I have no idea of where it is really going. I suspect it could get really ugly. The problem is that the consequences are too great to 'just let it happen'.

I think this is the crux of where we disagree. I think because we "have no idea of where it is really going", that we should just "let it happen", i.e. not expend resources, limit productivity, or reduce the standard of living for the 'little people' (it's been clearly demonstrated the elites will not have their standard of living reduced), in an attempt to prevent something that may or may not happen.

Also, even drastic action by the US and a few other countries will have a negligible effect, anyway. I've heard the argument, 'but we have to lead'. However, in case you haven't noticed, everyone who matters isn't following.

or, maybe we have to quit causing the problem?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I don't usually post in this kind of thread, I don't much enjoy arguing to no purpose. But:

Quote (dik)

or, maybe we have to quit causing the problem?

Within 10 years or so, the whole of the developed world seems poised to convert wholesale to electric power with no apparent workable plan to provide said power. While the developing world seems poised to go its own way.

dik, what more would you have us do? Please, be specific.

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

Maybe start doing stuff... there doesn't seem to be much progress.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That's not at all specific, dik. We'd like to know specifically what legislation, regulations, etc. you'd propose.

There is tons of progress. Every conventional powerplant that is replaced with combined cycle is huge progress. It never gets reported, though.

Quote (Science News article)
The team found no clear increase in the number of storms in the Atlantic over that 168-year time frame...More surprisingly — even to Vecchi, he says — the data also seem to show no significant increase in hurricane intensity over that time.

Trouble is dik, when you pull little tricks like that it just wastes our time.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Yes, arguing with dik is a lot like wrestling with a pig in mud.

It's like arguing with an engineer, I suspect...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Engineer 1: This building has a structural deficiency.

Engineer 2: We must replace the building entirely.

Engineer 1: That is unreasonable, we can mitigate the deficiency.

Engineer 2: I guess we'll just have to wait and see

By denying there could be a very serious problem, that's exactly what you are doing... we'll just wait and find out. Another option might be to try and remedy the problem with the building... did you think of that option?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (GregLocock)

The team found no clear increase in the number of storms in the Atlantic over that 168-year time frame

What’s most disturbing is so many people (policy makers included) are completely sure they can see a clear major increase with their own eyes. They can SEE IT. It is NOT IN DISPUTE.

How did this mass hysteria occur where people are claiming to see first hand an effect that is so subtle that the majority of studies can’t even find it?

dik, you may not have recognized yourself in Tug's analogy. You are Engineer 2.

I am missing some details, though. Somewhere, management is trying to figure out how to get the government to subsidize the total replacement of the structure so they're going to side with Engineer 2.

Otherwise, the post was alluding to the problem of the all or nothing approach.

Sorry hokie, wrong again...as I noted, my solution would be "Another option might be to try and remedy the problem with the building... "

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

So your problem is that you're not really happy with how the building is being used so you want to use the mitigation process to simultaneously force a change of occupancy. "Remedy the problem with the building" doesn't mean fix the structural issues, It means to transform the building into one you like.

Remedying means making it fit of the purpose it was originally constructed for. I don't know where you come up with your definitions, or ideas sometimes.

A new really good article on climate change. It explains a lot:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHGt9l6U5fM

Quote (That's not at all specific, dik. We'd like to know specifically what legislation, regulations, etc. you'd propose.)

I missed Bridge's comment... in response, the problem is too difficult for me, and I don't have a solution. If I knew of a fix, I don't have the resources to implement it. You don't need a solution to recognise a possible problem. By putting out information, it allows that are more capable of possibly coming up with a solution. No matter how you look at it, it appears things are heating up, and it doesn't appear the anyone is seriously thinking that this could be a major problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I didn't say remedy, I said mitigate.

Aegrescit Medendo

dik,

You persist in saying there is a problem coming, but you have no idea what to do about it, and will just have to wait and see. The title of this Forum is "Climate Change Engineering Solutions", yet you have started 9 threads so far, and have offered not one specific solution. Do you wonder why we are sceptical of your contributions?

I don't have a solution that does not entail some serious 'cutbacks' and changes. There could be some serious changes to transportation, manufacturing, societies, geopolitics, etc.

By posting the most recent information I find, I'm providing others with the information and hoping that others may have a solution, or that others may decide there is not a serious potential problem. If you do not think the information is correct, that's your prerogitive; provide material to the contrary. With the current activity, we'll just have to wait and see what the outcome will be.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Wind turbines:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/us/floating-offshor...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Hokie)

Do you wonder why we are skeptical of your contributions?

Honestly, I'm not skeptical of dik's contribution. I think he is refreshingly honest about the issue. True, this forum is engineering solutions. But, a solution is rarely completely engineering in nature. Especially one which involves the entire world working together. Coming up with solutions that involve multiple nations is more political than engineering. Also, coming up with solutions that are affordable and cost efficient are economic as much as they are engineering.

In reality any "complete solution" for global warming is going to be multi-disciplinary and is so incredibly complex (politically and economically) that it's almost guaranteed to fail. That being said, there are smaller "partial solutions" that will help us. That's what I'm focused on. But, I tend to think that Dik's correct.... These are not complete solutions and eventually, less palatable solutions may very well be required. We just don't have the immediacy and clear necessity that demand those less palatable solutions. Maybe we will if things get worse. I believe that's a partial (but imperfect) summary of dik's position.

Where we are right now (IMO) is that we can afford and invoke these minor "solutions" without tremendous economic consequences. We're talking pushing the economy towards hybrid and electric cars (which the market is doing anyways), moving away from coal power as quickly as we can, encouraging nuclear power, hydro and other sources of power that don't emit CO2. Those are what I personally think we SHOULD be doing to set ourselves up what we fear may be coming.

But, Dik (and many, many other people in this world) don't believe this will be enough. That voice / contribution isn't trivial. He's much more honest and realistic about the chances of getting more dramatic changes implemented now than others with his beliefs are. I'm very happy to hear his contributions. It's better than living in a echo chamber where people only agree with me and never challenge me intellectually. Certainly we can be skeptical of him (just as he can be skeptical of you and me).

"I don't have a solution that does not entail some serious 'cutbacks' and changes." aye, and therein lies the rub, and part of my feeling that the CO2 thing has been oversold. The early strident calls for change, some 20 years ago, were backed up by threats of imminent doom and possibly "we're past the "legendry" tipping point" ... and there "legendry" works in both senses of the word !

And sure over that 20 years we've made some progress, clearly not enough for the "believers". And this on the back of much government subsidies (paid for by taxpayers and mortgaging our future). Some people are getting very rich, many are getting poorer, and not much is changing. T'was ever thus.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

Quote (Dik)

I don't have a solution that does not entail some serious 'cutbacks' and changes

That’s what it will take. We will have to largely revert to pre industrial quality of life. No more being carried around in 2 tonne metal cages to avoid the hassle of walking. No more large cushy air conditioned spaces.

As it is people want net zero with no significant reduction in quality of life, which is utter fantasy. It’s all the utter rubbish about “stopping big carbon polluters”, as though we’re not the ones fuelling it.

Maybe a start to a cleaner environment:

"The idea is that countries like China that burn a lot of coal to run their factories could be persuaded to cut emissions so their companies aren't boxed out of the EU market. Meanwhile, countries like the U.S., which already have fairly strict environmental regulations, might also begin taxing the emissions linked to imports in order to protect their own domestic industries."

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/17/1171238285/how-a-eu...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That's the right way to do this. Tariff imports from low cost countries until they meet out equivalent environmental and humanitarian standards.

Sadly, our current administration in the USA has no interest.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-vetoes-legi...

The reason China makes everything is because they don’t bother with the environmental and labour constraints that the West follows. That’s why we pay them to make all our stuff.

Telling them to meet environmental and labour standards is a total nonsense when the reason we engaged them in the first place is because they don’t.

Most of the West's decarbonising to date is a mirage, we've just exported the dirty work elsewhere.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Costs seem to be going up, too... I asked earlier if anyone knew how the insurance companies, or banks were accommodating climate change?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Fossil fuel power plants may become fossils:

"Coal and gas-fired power plants would have to eliminate nearly all their climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions in just a little over a decade, under proposed regulations issued today by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Owners of those plants have been allowed to spew climate-warming carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere for more than a century. If these proposed regulations are finalized, they would come close to putting a stop to that practice."

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/11/1169967646/an-epa-p...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Problems with CO₂ pipelines:

"Little did she know, her sons and nephew were just down the road in the Cadillac, unconscious, victims of a mass poisoning from a carbon dioxide pipeline rupture. As the carbon dioxide moved through the rural community, more than 200 people evacuated and at least 45 people were hospitalized. Cars stopped working, hobbling emergency response. People lay on the ground, shaking and unable to breathe. First responders didn't know what was going on. "It looked like you were going through the zombie apocalypse," says Jack Willingham, emergency director for Yazoo County.

Now, three years after the CO2 poisoning from the pipeline break, some in Satartia see the incident as a warning at a critical moment for U.S. climate policy. The country is looking at a dramatic expansion of its carbon dioxide pipeline network, thanks in part to billions of dollars of incentives in last year's climate legislation. Last week, the Biden administration announced $251 million for a dozen climate projects that focus on CO2 transport and storage."

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/21/1172679786/carbon-c...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Coal and gas-fired power plants would have to eliminate nearly all their climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions in just a little over a decade

Uh huh.

I have no idea of how this will play out... likely spend the next 30 years going through the US court system... or a bigger picture:



cut off the units...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

I have no idea of how this will play out.

See the way gas has increased in lockstep with the increase in wind energy? It's no coincidence.

One of the most misunderstood concepts is supply and demand. Demand reduces price, not increase. Reducing demand for gas will increase its price. The fixed costs such as production and transportation don't change as demand goes down and must be distributed amongst a smaller volume causing price per unit to increase.

Quote (Tug)

Demand reduces price, not increase. Reducing demand for gas will increase its price.

?

and from New Zealand...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/new-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"Demand reduces price, not increase. Reducing demand for gas will increase its price."

not how I remember economics ... price elasticity of supply is +ve ... increasing the quantity increases the price, reducing the quantity demand reduces the price.

Equilibrium price
When a product exchange occurs, the agreed upon price is called an equilibrium price, or a market clearing price. Graphically, this price occurs at the intersection of demand and supply as presented in Image 1.

In Image 1, both buyers and sellers are willing to exchange the quantity Q at the price P. At this point, supply and demand are in balance. Price determination depends equally on demand and supply.

Image 1. Figure 1, Graph showing price equilibrium curves



"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

Or maybe something like:



It's possible that the supply curve will be inelastic... I just don't know. Economics was the only course I failed in University... re-took the course... second time around it was based on linear dynamics... and scored over 80%... I understood the dynamics a tad better, it would seem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Another interesting development... working from home. If it is necessary to reduce the carbon footprint, many 'dynamic' societies may have to change their use of private transport a tad, and working at home might be an option or even necessary. This in contrary to the Tesla guru thoughts... The above modified supply-demand curves may reflect this. I found an interesting article...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/05/19/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Demand reduces price, not increase.)

I'm not so sure...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

What increases the price is reduced supply, either natural, or artificial through regulation and prohibition on extraction, and taxes.

That said, Tug is right that there is also an economy of scale that factors into the production cost. It's not the only cost, and I don't believe the primary one with regard to energy prices, though.

concur... as the modified S-D curve shows...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (See the way gas has increased in lockstep with the increase in wind energy? It's no coincidence.)

That it's increasing, is not really a good sign... It's great to see the energy output due to coal has dropped dramatically, and hope it continues to do so.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I believe the economy of scale factors in a lot more than we think. For example, gasoline prices in 1920 were $0.30 per gallon which is the equivalent of $10 today. Demand for gasoline is certainly higher today than it was in 1920.

Not a good example... I have no idea of what the supply, or the market, was back then. The price was likely determined by supply-demand... just like today, modified by big oil companies and/or government, just like today.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The main reason for the drop in gasoline prices is supplies of light, sweet crude oil from readily available (shallow) supplies, and advancements in drilling and extraction that make those processes more efficient and economical. Economy of scale is only one factor among many.

Transparent solar cells...

https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/highly-trans...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

...maybe a sign of the future? Spain seems to be motivated. Their weather of late has been pretty terrible, too.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/companies/spain-ha...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Transparent solar cells...

If the cell passes light, what is its source of energy?

Quote (TugBoatEng)

I believe the economy of scale factors in a lot more than we think. For example, gasoline prices in 1920 were $0.30 per gallon which is the equivalent of $10 today. Demand for gasoline is certainly higher today than it was in 1920.

Okay, I think I understand what you were saying now. Essentially, when the industry sees a strong and long term demand for an item, they do what they can to increase supply (because of the profit margins they're getting). They are able to reinvest these products into greater and more efficient means of producing their product.....

Th long term result is that the prices will go actually go down. Though this genuinely isn't a guarantee. It is dependent on the producers being able to operate in a relatively free market. This never really happened in communist countries. Did it? What happened the supply never really matched up with demand. You were always in a situation where the supply was inefficient. They might make a boatload of shoes of one particular type and size. But, they didn't make the boots that farmers needed. Or, they didn't make the sizes that women needed. There was no incentive for those supplies to get where they needed to go or be allocated the way they needed to be. No one had a profit incentive. Only in the black market was there an incentive to take risk to make a profit.

You see other cases where an 'in demand' product is completely replaced in the market with something less expensive to produce. See what's happening to coal now. See what happened to lamp oil, whale blubber, Block Buster Video, DVDs, CDs, et cetera.

Transparent solar cells...I just can't see it.

(LOL)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

79% transparent...

"Solar panels have long been criticized for their appearance, with some people arguing that the large, opaque panels spoil the look of homes and businesses. But now, a group of researchers has developed a highly transparent solar cell using a 2D atomic sheet that could change the perception of solar energy. These near-invisible solar cells have an average visible transparency of 79%, which means that they can potentially be placed almost anywhere, including building windows, car front panels, and even human skin.

Scientists have been trying to develop transparent solar cells for years, but suitable materials have not existed until now. To create the solar cell, the researchers controlled the contact barriers between indium tin oxide (ITO), one of the most widely used transparent conducting oxides, and a monolayer tungsten disulfide. They coated various thin metals onto the ITO and inserted a thin layer of tungsten oxide between the coated ITO and the tungsten disulfide.

"The way in which we formed the solar cell resulted in a power conversion efficiency over 1000 times that of a device using a normal ITO electrode," said Toshiaki Kato, the corresponding author of the paper and associate professor at Tohoku University's Graduate School of Engineering."

We'll have to see... like so many other things... I thought it was useful information. I don't know the conversion from solar energy to electrical energy to know how efficient current solar cells are. Can anyone provide the data?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Good solar cells are in the 20% region for light to electricity energy conversion.

The 1000x efficiency listed in the article is likely starting from a baseline efficiency of nearly 0%.

I can imagine an application where this technology will be useful. It can replace window tint, maybe reduce heating load by converting some absorbed light into electricity. But, it's never going to be useful for generation as it passes too much light energy being transparent.

1000x 0% = 0% ... just sayin'.

what is the efficiency of a "solar cell using ... a normal ITO electrode" ?

But sure, solar cells are getting more efficient ... at the cost of more elaborate raw materials.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

One of the challenges in rooftop solar panels is that they're always "on". Meaning that they're producing electricity whenever the sun is out even a little bit. Therefore, there are lots of safety considerations related to getting electrocuted or such. I know fire fighters have a big concern about this.

I think this is reasonably controlled with rooftop solar as they are very visible and you have visible and distinct connections in certain locations that fire fighters can be cognizant of.

That being said, I wonder how this is handled with Elon Musk's solar shingle type of roofs. Anything that looks like a regular roof could be at least a little problematic.
https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/solar/sola...

Now, if we start using any window surface as a solar panel, then this could certainly be an issue. What happens if the window gets broken? Say someone throws a rock through it. Could this produce an electrical short that could start a fire or such?

Not trying to crap on what is a truly interesting concept. Just pointing out that, as interesting as it is, there is a big gap between the early stages of a technology concept and when that concept becomes commercially viable. Just like with Fusion reactors. Excellent tech ideas..... But, years from being fully developed.

Quote:

there are lots of safety considerations related to getting electrocuted or such.

I thought most solar panels output low voltage electricity.

BridgeSmith -

I remember an article on this subject a number of years ago. Long before I ever considered having solar on my house. But, I don't remember much of the details. I know there were concerns and objections from firefighters in particular. I don't know if it was worry about an individual panel, or related to where the combiner box or transformers are located.

And, I don't know if the concern was "electrocution" (which was implied in my previous post) or the potential for it starting or feeding an existing fire. Or, even related to concerns about panels affecting the fire rating of a building.

Honestly, I should know more about this.... It's not like me to pay so little attention to the technology I've put on my house. I should probably have done some more homework before posting.

That being said, my desire was to demonstrate that the placement of an individual solar panel is actually a small part of the project. Having enough panels to generate a large amount of electricity is the goal. And, the process needed to invert that electricity from DC to AC and the ability to wire it through the house to the junction box or transformer or such is no small task. We've pretty much got that process down with roof top panels. But, we've got a lot of space up on the roof, and in the attic that isn't used for much else. It will be different when we start talking about doing that for windows and doors that move and can be more easily damaged / broken.

It's just another possible venue for 'green' power... I have no idea of where this will go. In the coming decades, there will likely be a couple of 'false starts'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

I have no idea of where this will go. In the coming decades, there will likely be a couple of 'false starts'.

More than a couple.... But, that's innovation. We've got 350 million people in the US. And, I have no idea how many companies.... Any one of which can take a financial risk and get a gain or a loss from it. Sometimes it's a small risk, sometimes it's a big risk. Sometimes it's a small loss or gain, sometimes it's big.

But, this is why the US is so innovative. Because the market and the system is set up in a way that encourages these types of risks. Look at how MicroSoft, Apple, Xerox, Facebook, Google and such were formed. The founders took risks. They innovated in ways the big companies didn't want to do and they became huge. Same thing with virtually everything Elon Musk has ever done, Pay Pal, Space-X, Tesla, etc.

Quote (dik)

It's just another possible venue for 'green' power... I have no idea of where this will go. In the coming decades, there will likely be a couple of 'false starts'.

They're all trying to be the next Solyndra.

Honestly, if you look at where we are now compared to where we were in 1973 when I was born, we should all be incredible proud of the innovations we've made as a country. For Example:

a) Virtually, every lightbulb in my house is an LED. Using something like 1/10th the amount of electricity. And, not generating any heat.
b) Similar savings for the types of TV's we have now vs those we had back then.
c) Our energy efficient fridge, dishwasher, clothes washer and such use maybe 25% of the electricity that the same appliances would have used back then.
d) Our cars get better gas mileage and emit a lot less pollution.... Though this will get even better when the next care I buy for my family is a hybrid.
e) My house has energy efficient windows most everywhere keeping the heat in during the winter and the heat out during the summer.
f) I work from home and barely drive now. Granted, this isn't a net gain over my parents because my Dad worked and my Mom stayed home with the kids. Whereas I work from home and my wife probably has a similar commute to what my Dad had back then. But, being able to work from home with Zoom meetings or MS Team meetings and such is HUGE.

Isn't it insane how much advances in efficiency we've made in just 50 years?!

Great Josh... how much more there is to go... and what damage has been done in those 50 years might be considered, too.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Great Josh... how much more there is to go... and what damage has been done in those 50 years might be considered, too.

One of the problems I have personally with Gen Z is that they have no perspective. They think communism / socialism will cure our problems for some insane reason. Really?! Have you studied history even a little. Do you have any idea the way the poor people lived in ANY of those countries that tried it?!

They think the disparity between rich and poor in the US is the worst in history. They call our society "end stage capitalism". Really? All the homeless people I know have cell phones, full stomachs and they live this way by CHOICE. The poor people in this country, for the most part have it better than rich people did 500 years ago.

They think race relations are as bad as they've ever been. Yeah, right? They think that having to show an ID to vote is genuinely racist and a huge civil rights violation.... like "Jim Crown on steroids" (though that comment was fed to them by an octogenarian).

They have no perspective. Pretending that society is headed in the wrong direction is comical if you have perspective.... unless you talk about how INDIVIDUAL rights are being trampled on for the preservation of "collective" rights.

"I thought most solar panels output low voltage electricity."

Each solar cell produces the gap voltage for its chemistry, about 0.6V for Si. To get usable voltage from them they are assembled in series, so for example my off grid solar runs strings of 140 cells, to give 80 V open circuit. When producing max power the controller drags this down to about 80% of OCV ie 64V, so the panel can hold my 48V battery at 60V for conditioning. I can assure you that 80V is enough to give you a fair old bang if you are clumsy, even on a cloudy day.

However for on-grid installations you need to comfortable exceed the AC voltage you want to generate, and for a given power the wiring gets smaller the higher you go. So my on grid house has 300V panels, ie about 500 cells in series. 300V will end all your worries about climate change.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote (JoshPlumSE)

The poor people in this country, for the most part have it better than rich people did 500 years ago.

Our adoption facilitator, a man with 30 years of splitting time between the US and Haiti, told me that the poorest people in the US have a standard of living that would be considered upper middle class, bordering on rich, in Haiti. We were only there for a week, but that seemed about right to me. Granted, that was 15 years ago, but AFAIK, not much has changed.

Human suffering...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Humans have been suffering for numerous reasons, including the climate, ever since Adam and Eve got booted from the garden. "Climate change" is just the current boogieman used as an excuse for people to pretend they care. The greatest source of human suffering is other humans - by far more direct means than the changing climate.

Quote (...by far more direct means than the changing climate.)

Let's hope that is not surpassed.

https://grist.org/drought/famine-somalia-kenya-eth...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (BridgeSmith)

The greatest source of human suffering is other humans - by far more direct means than the changing climate.

Yup, that is unquestionably the case.

Maybe we should be warming the planet instead of trying to cool it? 10x mortality from cold climates vs hot.

Quote:

It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.

https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-de....

Ya tug, even in Texas... when the wetbulb hits 35, watch the poeple drop like flies... it's not more heat we need!

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The other side of the picture is that because of humans allegedly causing the climate change, we need less humans.

I think you've hit on the ultimate goal for some of the elites at the forefront of the movement, hokie.

Quote (Tug)

It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.

According to climate experts the benefits of climate change don’t count.

I don't understand your comment, dik. People can be harmed by temperature extremes but overall, warmer temperature extremes are less harmful.

Quote:

Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).

Take a gander at climate change... some people are predicting 35C wetbulb in the not too distant future.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

We have that every summer here in Brisbane. And most people have no air conditioning. It's a matter of adaptation.

Yup. In the Middle East I worked all day in the sun at 140F+, you drink plenty of water but your body adapts nicely otherwise.

Quote:

The other side of the picture is that because of humans allegedly causing the climate change, we need less humans.

I'm waiting to see if politicians or AI pursue population control first. Its more than pollution, its the root cause of resource/energy scarcity and has a big impact on standard of living. It may be abhorrent to folks' morals but seems to be an inevitability.

...maybe drybulb temperatures.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

35C wetbulb at 70% relative humidity is about 40C drybulb, 104F. Not often experienced close to the coast in Australia, but common inland. Folks do adapt. Sure, their activities are restricted, but life goes on. The worst hot weather I have experienced was in the summer of 1966, when I was in officer basic training at Indiantown Gap, Pennsylvania. 115F for about 6 days in a row, and we were undergoing a lot of PT.

Catch...

"A wet-bulb temperature of 35C has been theorized to be the limit to human adaptability to extreme heat, a growing concern in the face of continued and predicted accelerated climate change. Although this theorized threshold is based in physiological principles, it has not been tested using empirical data. This study examined the critical wet-bulb temperature (Twb, crit) at which heat stress becomes un-compensable in young, healthy adults performing tasks at modest metabolic rates mimicking basic activities of daily life. Across six experimentally determined environmental limits, no subject’s Twb, crit reached the 35C limit and all means were significantly lower than the theoretical 35C threshold. Mean Twb, crit values were relatively constant across 36C–40C humid environments and averaged 30.55 ± 0.98C but progressively decreased (higher deviation from 35C) in hotter, dry ambient environments. Twb, critwas significantly associated with mean skin temperature (and a faster warming rate of the skin) due to larger increases in dry heat gain in the hot-dry environments. As sweat rates did not significantly differ among experimental environments, evaporative cooling was outpaced by dry heat gain in hot-dry conditions, causing larger deviations from the theoretical 35C adaptability threshold. In summary, a wet-bulb temperature threshold cannot be applied to human adaptability across all climatic conditions and where appropriate (high humidity), that threshold is well below 35C."

https://journals.physiology.org/doi/epdf/10.1152/j...

and from

"A wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C, or around 95 °F, is pretty much the absolute limit of human tolerance, says Zach Schlader, a physiologist at Indiana University Bloomington. Above that, your body won’t be able to lose heat to the environment efficiently enough to maintain its core temperature. That doesn’t mean the heat will kill you right away, but if you can’t cool down quickly, brain and organ damage will start."

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/10/102817...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

More of the earth is inhospitable due to cold than due to heat. An increase of several degrees will in total increase the habitable zone.

I agree, Tom... Winnipeg will likely benefit (subject to drought conditions), but at the expense of other areas.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Those physiologists know not of what they speak. May be difficult for a Canadian to understand, but it just ain't so.

Wet bulb is not the only criteria for inhospitable conditions. At 100% humidity, wet bulb and dry bulb coincide.

Quote (dik)

I agree, Tom... Winnipeg will likely benefit (subject to drought conditions), but at the expense of other areas.

Why drought conditions? Drought stricken California just experienced its wettest year in very recent history (climatologists don't like to look at that year before 1863). Less biased climate studies have indicated more precipitation with warming.

Remember that Earth supported the creation of life under much higher temperatures. Creatures with much less evolution were able to adapt and thrive. Dinosaurs likely went extinct due to cooling, not warming. Perhaps we should embrace this next stage of life.

Missed that tug, subject to drought 'or maybe storms', Winnipeg will likely have nicer weather. With climate change either is a possibility. There will also be places on earth that remain the same as they were. In addition to it being warmer it could also be wetter and/or drier. We don't know what, if anything, will change.

Prior to 1863, and even later, the data may be a little sketchy... but they have charted the CO₂ back a lot earlier and their data is pretty conclusive... CO₂ is going up and is higher than it has been for a couple of million years. They also have a pretty good idea of the effect of CO₂.

Earlier life was cold blooded, too, not warm blooded, and changes occurred over millennia, not decades. Things may be a little different, this time.

Hokie... being warm blooded creatures, we have to regulate our body temperatures. If your organs slowly break down due to overheating there could be serious long term issues. Sustained temperature may be 'for a long time' and not just a few days or a couple of weeks. With temperatures of 40C, and air that is not water saturated, there is evaporation, ie. cooling.

The Middle East and Africa (and occasionally Australia) experience high temperatures, but not with extreme humidity for extended periods of time. Even Siberia experienced it's first +30C temperatures lately (humidity was likely low). Things might be heating up a tad. The physiologists should prepare an LD₃₅ curve that shows lethal dry and wetbulb temperatures.

Maybe something to look forward to, and another issue to deal with.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Why drought conditions? Drought stricken California just experienced its wettest year in very recent history (climatologists don't like to look at that year before 1863). Less biased climate studies have indicated more precipitation with warming.

dik's right (and wrong) at the same time. The models (and common sense) suggest that higher temperatures will result in more humidity, more moisture in the air, more rain overall. However, with changes in global climate means that SOME places will be drier as well.

BTW, this is the reason why the left change the terms on us. We're not calling it "global warming" any more. It's now called "climate change". So, if it's colder somewhere it's still "climate change". It allows them to cry that the sky is falling when virtually ANYTHING happens. Big storm.... It's climate change. A lack of storms, also climate change. A very hot summer, climate change. A very cold winter, climate change. Higher acidity in the ocean, climate change. Lower acidity in lakes or rivers, climate change.

Quote (Missed that tug, subject to drought 'or maybe storms', Winnipeg will likely have nicer weather. With climate change either is a possibility. There will also be places on earth that remain the same as they were.)

and the error, sir?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Only that in the "overall sense" it shouldn't be drought. In an overall sense, it will be more humidity, more rain.

If I said, that human caused climate change is expected to lead to colder temperatures. That would be an "erroneous" statement. Right?

That's why I corrected my note to tug... It will likely be both, in the same locations (at different times), even. There could be significant, extreme, and erratic conditions. We just don't know. Different areas will be affected in different manners. Some places my remain, largely unchanged as far as weather goes.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

It will likely be both, in the same locations (at different times), even. There could be significant, extreme, and erratic conditions.

So what you're saying is we're all likely to experience changes in the weather. Good to know.

Quote (dik)

We just don't know.

Despite that, and everything else you'll admit that we don't know, you're still completely convinced about the course of action you think we should take?

We have no idea of what the end result will be. There will likely be significant changes, many of them quite extreme. There can also be significant lifestyle changes. We don't know, but things are pointing to more extreme weather... droughts and storms, and the concern is that they could get a lot worse. Storms are becoming much worse, and faster, not more frequent. We will reach a point where we likely will not be able to correct the problem. The next couple of decades could get pretty interesting.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

Storms are becoming much worse, and faster.

They are? Where's your evidence? The contention that hurricanes have gotten worse, is based on assumptions and estimates of how many and how bad they were before we had satellites. It's the same with other types of storms. We don't know what kind of weather events occurred in places and times where there was no one there that reported or recorded that it happened.

Quote:

We will reach a point where we likely will not be able to correct the problem.

We've never been able to "correct the problem" of changing climate, and we never will. We have to adapt, as we always have, very successfully, I might add.

Quote:

The next couple of decades could get pretty interesting.

Of course they will be "interesting". Weather extremes and climate shifts will continue to happen; nothing new. Our modern technology allows us to track the changes much better than ever before, and climate alarmists keep every one of the changes right in front of us 24/7. However, more awareness of the weather extremes does not equate to more extreme weather events.

For a start...

“Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas. Additionally, the global frequency of storms may decrease or remain unchanged, but hurricanes that form are more likely to become intense.”

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3184/a-force-of-natu...

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098662

https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/8-climate-c...

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-chang...

https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-leads-to-mo...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

“models predict...likely...may...more likely...”

I said evidence, not predictions and guesses.

Quote (Josh)

It allows them to cry that the sky is falling when virtually ANYTHING happens. Big storm.... It's climate change. A lack of storms, also climate change. A very hot summer, climate change

Most people don’t question it. They get told it’s a cold winter due to climate change, and they buy it. The automatic regurgitating of talking points is really sad. I heard someone recite this one the other day in response to Sydney’s recent cold weather - “climate change is increasing temperature extremes both hot and cold”. They hear an “expert” say it, and they copy it.

None of this is to say the earth isn’t warming, but what it shows is the appalling level of confirmation bias occurring regarding climate change, where people are prepared to interpret cooling as further proof of overall warming. As you say, everything is climate change. Anything that happens is taken as more proof.

Quote (I said evidence, not predictions and guesses.)

No definitive proof... the evidence is in the increase and severity of current events and records being broken due to increased CO₂. CO₂ is increasing and the records are being broken. I cannot imagine 30C in Siberia. There is a good potential for more severe stuff to follow. You can just 'hunker down' and see what happens. With the current [lack of] activity, there is likely nothing to reduce what might happen.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (BridgeSmith)

I said evidence, not predictions and guesses.

Some of it is just common sense. If you accept that the climate is warming then you accept the following:
a) You will have less artic ice because some will melt due to higher temperatures. Which should lead to higher sea levels. Simple logic.
b) You will have more moisture in the air because water evaporates faster at higher temperatures. Also, because the air is capable of holding more water when it is warmer. Again, it's simple logic.
c) More humidity SHOULD lead to more hurricanes (or a longer hurricane season) which are largely caused by the Coriolis effect in combination with warm waters and humid conditions.
d) More humidity in general means more precipitation in general.

Now, none of these things mean that there are "catastrophic" effects from global warming. Just common sense predictions based on what happens when temperatures increase.

You might also add some beneficial effects of global warming:
e) You should have longer growing seasons due to warming weather and more precipitation.
f) Longer growing season + more available water = larger food supply from farming. Where we'd be less likely to experience mass starvation in places like Africa and such which have had food supply issues in the past.
g) On the flip side, you will likely have more malaria and such diseases that spread better in warmer climates.

One man's good equals another man's bad. And ever it will be.

You're assuming these changes are in moderation. Current weather events might indicate something else...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Well, do they or do they not?

As usual, he has no idea.

Hang on dik, a few days ago you presented a paper that said both the intensity and frequency of cyclonic events in the USA were reducing. The reduced frequency is a trend that the Indian weather bureau found, and there's a similar chart for Australia.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote (a few days ago you presented a paper that said both the intensity and frequency of cyclonic events in the USA)

They are changing all over... some less intense, some more intense. Some more frequent and some less frequent. It depends on where you live in the world (or USA).

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That statement completely cancels itself out.

“Less intense” weather presumably counts as proof of global warming too, in the same way that cold does.

The total summation is greater... but parts of it can be less, but other parts will be much warmer so the net result is an increase in temperature. It climate change... ie, it's changing, but with a net increase. People froze to death in Texas, and Siberia hit +30C... doesn't that seem at least a little odd?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

People froze to death in Texas, and Siberia hit +30C... doesn't that seem at least a little odd?

Not at all. It's called weather, and it's been happening since long before the industrial revolution.

Somebody made a post saying that the Grand Canyon would have taken over a trillion years to form with the Colorado river flowing as it does today. Earth is 4.8 billion years old. 14000 years ago much of North America was covered in ice up to 2 miles thick (reference pending, I may have misread this). Maybe the Grand Canyon formed in those short years as the ice melted. Maybe our assumption of such a stable climate on Earth is wrong.

It's a start, and a lot further to go, I suspect...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/24/france-ba...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

So they will have more private flights. More CO2 is likely. Can you please provide some quantification of reduction when you post these articles?

...maybe private flights are next?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

🤣🤣🤣

That would have to start with the experts. You know: John Kerry, Bill Gates, Al Gore, everybody involved in the IPCC or WEF, etc...

Dik,

I hope you realise that Texas is quite large, and Siberia is many times that. Siberia is much larger than, you guessed it, Canada. Siberia does get hot and cold, like Canada

Also, private jet flights grew during the COVID manufactured crisis.

A regular headline:

https://businesstravelerusa.com/news/flying-privat...

A sensational headline:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/2...

but 30C set an all time record... The coldest I've been is -55C and Siberia gets a lot colder...

As far a size, Texas is about half the area of Manitoba. About 30 years back, I was joking with a Texas engineer, "Is there any truth in the matter that Clinton (pres at the time) was going to cut Alaska in half and make Texas the third largest state?" He replied, "There is nothing that 'expletive' would do that would surprise me."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Possibly helping to mitigate the carbon footprint of concrete...

https://www.on-sitemag.com/construction-materials/...({{*JobID}})

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

No point in arguing, but 30C is not an “all time record” high in Siberia.

Sad news for the people haters, global food production set a new record last year.

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-es...

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

I’m confused. I thought global warming was expected to decimate global food production?

Must be just a temporary anomaly…

Apparently this is with less fertilizer, too!

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-war-afte...

Quote (No point in arguing, but 30C is not an “all time record” high in Siberia.)

Sorry hokie... even worse, the temperature was 38C. Not anywhere near Death Valley, though... but it's working on it.

"The UN weather agency said Tuesday it has certified a 38 C (100.4 F) reading in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk last year as the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, the latest in a string of "alarm bells about our changing climate."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/wmo-heat-record-1....

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (I’m confused. I thought global warming was expected to decimate global food production?)

Not decimate, but may change it a bit. We don't know what the end result will be. Parts of the world be affected and others will not. It also depends a bit on how hot things get..

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Cutting flights seems to be catching... wait until the EU steps up...

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/05/26/spain-plans-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Good for France. Without short haul flights maybe the climate evangelists will stop holding their meetings there.

Are there maps of CO2 concentrations over the globe (other than the records in Hawaii), and how they change over the course of a year ?

I remember seeing, from the Hawaii data, that there is a huge seasonal variation.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

Heatwaves and definition...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTNrtArLJJw

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Who determines the definition? ISO? NIST?

@rb1957 yes indeed https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/earthday/gall_co...

They've turned the gain up to 11 on that one, the range is +/- 10 in 380

And here's an animation for a whole year. Now I'm confused, NH summer has the highest CO2!

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87146/a-y...

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

fewer deaths as a result of climate change.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65673...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

There is potentially a new battery in the works...

https://thedriven.io/2023/05/24/breakthrough-ev-ba...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

This may be another possible tool; the chemical conversion of CO₂.

https://scitechdaily.com/from-forgotten-formula-to...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Here's somebody who claims to have the solution to climate change.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jane-fonda-blames-wh...

At least Jane is honest about the moral sentiments driving so much climate activism - a pathological hatred of “white men”, and an undying allegiance to the “global south”.

With things heating up, some things may be slowing down:

"Antarctic alarm bells: Observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted."

"But there are signs this circulation is slowing down and it's happening decades earlier than predicted. This slowdown has the potential to disrupt the connection between the Antarctic coasts and the deep ocean, with profound consequences for Earth's climate, sea level and marine life.

Our new research, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, uses real-world observations to decipher how and why the deep ocean around Antarctica has changed over the past three decades. Our measurements show the overturning circulation has slowed by almost a third (30%) and deep ocean oxygen levels are declining. This is happening even earlier than climate models predicted.

We found melting of Antarctic ice is disrupting the formation of Antarctic bottom water. The meltwater makes Antarctic surface waters fresher, less dense, and therefore less likely to sink. This puts the brakes on the overturning circulation."

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-antarctic-alarm-bell...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Canadian nuclear energy may be an issue.

"In 2021, nine US nonproliferation experts sent an open letter to Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In their letter, the experts expressed their concern that the Canadian government was actually increasing the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation by funding reactors that are fueled with plutonium. Earlier that year, the Federal Government had provided 50.5 million Canadian dollars to Moltex Energy, a company exploring a nuclear reactor design fueled with plutonium. The linkage to nuclear weapons proliferation has also led several civil society groups to urge the Canadian government to ban plutonium reprocessing."

https://thebulletin.org/2023/05/canadian-reactors-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

As a solution to carbon proliferation, how about using CO2 as a fuel component?
Aluminum will burn in an atmosphere of CO2.
Rather than sequestering CO@, can we use CO2 along with aluminum to fire boilers?
The aluminum oxide may be reclaimed with hydro energy.
There may have to be many tons of aluminum transported long distances from smelter locations to CO2 boiler locations but fortunately aluminum is quite light. grin

--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

First step, I think, is we have to cut down on our production of it.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Some of "we" are, some of "we" are not. What to do?

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

The 'are' group is pitifully small... and will likely have to improve.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

It's warming in Asia... We'll have to wait and see if this continues, or perhaps gets worse.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/arti...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

It's also been unusually cool, cold, rainy in California over the last 9 months or so.

Quote (It's also been unusually cool, cold, rainy in California over the last 9 months or so.)

Expect "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly". The West can use a lot more water to help make up for the last 20 years... but, there is a limit to how much 'good rain' can fall before it becomes a different type of problem. Contrary to Californians, there are other places than California that will likely be affected. My biggest concern is that the systems are extremely powerful, and I have no idea of what is possible. I suspect strongly, that once they start, it will be really difficult to stop them.

Insurance costs appear to be increasing, too.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9741480/insurance-costs...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"Bangladesh was also at its hottest in 50 years"

Yes, I see.

Also

https://phys.org/news/2022-01-cold-deaths-india.ht....

A study of the correlation between temperature and mortality in the Indian city of Pune has found that cold, rather than heat, is by far the bigger killer. This is at odds with warnings and mitigating measures authorities have been taking in anticipation of climate change. Although South Asia is disproportionately affected by global warming, the finding is likely to remain true into the future.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Maybe the reality of climate change is coming home to roost...

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/01/1179573166/fema-law...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

This goes back to the comments about Katrina and New Orleans. It wasn't the intensity of the hurricane that caused the flooding but the poorly maintained levies. If the federal government isn't going to maintain the infrastructure then of course the insurance companies are going to have to charge more.

The only correlation to climate change is that governments are squandering their money on "carbon" projects and none is left for infrastructure.

Ah, so translated into English, market failure insurer raises rates to help cover replacement costs of more expensive houses built in high risk areas because cheap insurance was available. Not exactly a whole damn lot to do with the climate scary stories.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

I've wondered how banks and insurance companies are dealing with the possibility of climate change. I've had some interesting dealings with SF, regarding building collapses, and I'm not surprised it seems to be initiated by them. It seems to be catching on.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allstate-insurance-st...

Like Katrina... damage caused by climate change will be cumulative, I suspect. Poorly maintained facilities with be 'harder hit'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

SF needs to worry about earthquakes before climate change.

The reasons Allstate and State Farm are no longer issuing new policies in California is due to construction costs. It costs too much to rebuild in California. It has nothing to do with climate change.

That too... Climate change may be closer on the horizon. I keep wondering about Millennium Tower... and the potential for it to topple over due to quicking. it could be an interesting summer and fall. We'll have to see what ENSO brings this year...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Trade and commerce... it could get a lot more interesting.

"The dramatic shift, which was on display at meetings between U.S. and EU officials in Sweden this week, means that issues like climate and tech will grow more intertwined with trade, making cooperation more challenging as each side competes with an outdated rulebook."

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/us-europe...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I challenge you to post some piece of relevant information without using any of the following words:

may
could
might
wonder
wondering
possibly
possibility
probability
potential
potentially
likely
suspect
appear
appears
bit
smidge

bonus points will be awarded for any post completed without the use of the 'smiley smoking a cigarette' emoji

Sorry Swinny... I can't. It's not written in stone, it just a real possibility. We'll have to wait and see what the outcome is. Even statistics does not often deal in absolutes... just a degree of certainty. I cannot even provide you with that. Challenging the certainty only detracts from the possible outcome... a bit of a red herring IMHO.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

You forgot this:

Happy?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Reparations, if they happen will be interesting.

"Calculating the amount companies owe for causing global warming"

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-amount-companies-owe...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away... this has to have an impact on people, somewhere. (for tug)

"Some of the world's most important freshwater sources lost water at a cumulative rate of around 22 gigatonnes per year for nearly three decades. That's about 17 times the volume of Lake Mead, the United States' largest reservoir."

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

You know what's conspicuously missing from that article (unless I missed it), dik? The percentage reduction. Nothing like a little sensationalism to start off the morning "More than half..." Ok, 53% is slightly more than half, but that's not far off of saying half of the population is below average intelligence. "are drying up". Ok, by how much?

So, let's put it in perspective, shall we? I mean, 22 gigatonnes per year for 30 years sounds like a alot, but is it really, in grand scale of all the fresh water on Earth? Well, according to the USGS, there are 104,590 cubic kilometers of fresh water in streams, lakes, and swamps. That's (not coincidentally) 104,590 gigatonnes of water. So, the 660 gigatonnes supposedly lost from the largest lakes and reservoirs over the last 30 years amounts to a staggering 0.63%.

Btw, if you look at the link, you'll also notice that the 104,590 gigatonnes is only 0.4% of the fresh water contained in the polar ice caps. That means we're down by 0.0025% of our fresh water. Doesn't seem so dire, now does it?

quibble... just a distraction. It's a bit of a problem, but to me, it's a 'bunch', even if it's only 45%.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

but to me, it's a 'bunch', even if it's only 45%.

You're missing the point. Approximately half of the lakes, reservoirs, etc. they looked at had reductions averaging less than 2% of their volume. Assuming it's even possible to accurately measure that small of a change, it's still inconsequential.

but cumulative... and we don't know where this is going. Just take a gander at what's become the the 'Grand Canyon'... extreme weather may be on the way... either parched or flooding... we just don't know.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Ignorance is no reason to blow up the world's economy. Perhaps if we did know, but "we just don't know".

Also the water isn't gone. It might just be somewhere else. Water can't be in ice and in lakes and in aquifers at the same time. Currently, in California there is a lot of water stored in snow in the mountains. By the end of this year much that water will be in lakes.

Not only is the temperature likely going up, but it appears the CO₂ is also. This is not really a good sign, IMHO. from Forbes

"TOPLINE
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached an all-time record high last month, after growing at one of the fastest rates on record, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report published Monday—a dismal indication as scientists warn the devastating effects of climate change will continue to escalate and wreak havoc on the planet.

KEY FACTS
Carbon dioxide levels recorded at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Hawaii reached nearly 424 parts per million in May, up from 421 parts per million in May 2022—annual CO2 levels in the Northern Hemisphere peak in May.

The rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide is the fourth-biggest yearly increase on record, according to scientists from NOAA and the University of California San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography—marking an unwanted increase as scientists aim to plateau CO2 levels.

Levels as high as 420 to 425 parts per million are more than 50% higher than the pre-industrial era, and continue to rise even as countries work to reduce fossil fuel emissions in hopes of meeting the goal laid out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

KEY BACKGROUND
Scientists have warned for decades fossil fuel emissions need to be limited to stave off deadly impacts of climate change. That’s because rising carbon dioxide levels—which come from burning fossil fuels primarily for transportation and electricity—trap heat in the atmosphere that would otherwise escape, an Earth-warming effect that prolongs droughts and heat waves and causes more intense wildfires and storms. United Nations scientists warned in March the world is “on thin ice” as the global temperature approaches the critical 1.5 degree Celsius estimated to be the maximum temperature increase to avoid more deadly and catastrophic droughts, heat waves, storms and sea-level rise. U.N. scientists had also warned in October greenhouse gas emissions will rise 10% above 2010 levels by 2030 when they desperately need to drop.

TANGENT
State and federal lawmakers have sought to impose stricter limits on emissions and earmarked billions of dollars for climate change mitigation in recent years, but many companies and GOP lawmakers have slammed those measures, arguing they hurt coal, natural gas and oil production. A group of Republican lawmakers last summer heavily criticized a $370 billion measure in the federal Inflation Reduction Act to tackle climate change, including Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who accused Democrats of “sacrificing American families at the altar of climate change."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/06/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Currently, in California there is a lot of water stored in snow in the mountains. By the end of this year much that water will be in lakes.)

Californians may hate to hear this, but there are places in the world other than California. With possible increased precipitation, they could be in for a 'whole pile' of different 'hurt'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

All that money sent to China and the CO2 continues to rise.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Unexpectedly :)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

3 years in a row. High pressure forcing all Seattle's rain down south, drying out Seattle. And heating Canada as well, you know the fires.

Quote (dik)

Californians may hate to hear this, but there are places in the world other than California. With possible increased precipitation, they could be in for a 'whole pile' of different 'hurt'.

I use my California experience because despite all of the doom and gloom we see in the news, things appear to be quite normal. I've even heard things like California is experiencing unprecedented drought, unprecedented flooding, unprecedented burning and none of these things are true. It really casts a shadow on all of the other unprecedented stories I hear.

I'm with the government, and I'm here to help you (one of the three great lies).

"Republican lawmakers are making it harder for power companies to pivot away from coal. Their constituents may be paying the price."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/us/coal-plants-repu...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

I'm with the government, and I'm here to help you (one of the three great lies).

This is ironic, no?

Yup... was an expression of my youth 60 years back, and little has changed.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

What changed your mind?

This is an interesting video because we all know the history of that car but this line is ahead of its time. 120 in the shade in 1959! 13:20 for reference.

https://youtu.be/5EQXmhGhEZM

Nothing is unprecedented.

Quote (Ronald Reagan)

"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help."

This predated Ronald...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Country efforts on Climate Change.

"Every year countries pledge to cut their greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to curb the impacts of climate change.

But still global temperatures keep rising.

Just last month, scientists announced that average global temperatures would probably pass the 1.5C threshold for the first time in the next five years. As temperatures rise the world will see more devastating heatwaves, wildfires and floods."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65754...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Tranna going electric?

"NFI Group Inc. says it has signed a five-year deal to build up to 621 40-foot battery-electric buses for the Toronto Transit Commission.

The contract includes a firm order for 186 Xcelsior Charge NG heavy-duty transit buses, as well as the option for up to an additional 435 of the same buses."

https://winnipegsun.com/business/money-news/nfi-gr...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Canadian codes are starting to recognise climate change.

https://www.constructioncanada.net/bc-building-cod...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I wouldn't say that has anything to do with climate change. We have to build more efficient buildings because our population is growing and we are not increasing our power generation capabilities.

Developers love these policies because they price out individuals when talking things like home construction.

I suspect that it has a strong influence. With extreme heat and cold, proper building envelope design reduces the need to heating as well as cooling. This has a direct effect on the use of power (electrical energy). In addition, the cost of this commodity will continue to increase, with additional savings (in this case financial).

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Energy efficiency is contrary to managing extreme temperatures. Heating and air conditioning are already capable of handling the most extreme temperatures on Earth. These buildings are being built with less heating and air conditioning.

...and the environments can be more comfortable and enjoyable with less energy demand. When I put new windows in our place in Oshawa 25+ years ago. I used triple glazed, low E, argon filled units... far more intense than most glazing at the time. We used to be able to stand at the front windows and feel the cold outside... with the new glazing did not occur.

The main issue is reducing our dependence on energy... not accommodating heat or cold that may follow... my focus was to reduce my use of energy.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Insulation is great for a single family home but every highrise building I have experienced requires significant air conditioning to make it habitable. Most single family homes don't "require" air conditioning.

My experience is that energy efficient buildings meet their goals by not including laundry in the building. Laundry is the largest per capita energy load in most of our homes.

Yep. In Australia we generally use clotheslines. I always get energy bill shock when it’s been a rainy period and we resort to the clothes dryer.

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Energy efficiency is contrary to managing extreme temperatures

Uh ok.

You like being pedantic. What the heck does this mean?

Quote (The Article)

The newly introduced changes to the BC Energy Step Code require 20 per cent better energy efficiency for most new buildings in the province.

No understanding of efficiency. A 20% reduction in energy consumption is not a increase in efficiency.

Quote (TugBoatEng)

No understanding of efficiency. A 20% reduction in energy consumption is not a increase in efficiency.

Dude just stick to tug boats. You are so far out of your depth I don't even know where to start.

another possible feature of climate change:

"Tens of thousands of people in communities across the country have been forced to evacuate as firefighters battle to contain the blazes that have scorched more than 3.8 million hectares (9.4 million acres) so far.

list of 3 items
Wildfires prompt hazy skies, air quality warnings in Canada, US
Canada wildfires spread to new areas, prompting more evacuations
Photos: ‘Unprecedented’ wildfires on Canada’s Atlantic coast

But the emergence of smoke-filled, discoloured skies in parts of Canada that typically aren’t affected by wildfires has spurred widespread public concern and calls for authorities to better prepare for a problem that experts say is only going to get worse."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/canadas-re...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That one is a feature of arson, dik.

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-...


SwinnyGG, reducing a building's energy consumption may be accomplished by exporting services (I used laundry as an example earlier). This does not equal an increase in efficiency.

Quote (TugboatEng)

reducing a building's energy consumption may be accomplished by exporting services

You're making it clear you have zero understanding of how building energy efficiency is engineered, tested, or certified.

Just stop. You have no idea what you're talking about.

Tug... reassigning it is not reducing it... this works only if more efficient to reassign, else energy input may be greater.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

SwinnyGG, there are hundreds of ways to describe a building's efficiency. I'm poking fun at the article because they use dimensionless numbers (percentage) to describe undefined terms (efficiency). For example, I could reduce the size of individual apartments to increase the number of residents per square foot. That's an example of higher building efficiency but I doubt that is what the writers were thinking.

From the BBC, it may be starting...

"US scientists confirmed that El Niño had started. Experts say it will likely make 2024 the world's hottest year.

They fear it will help push the world past a key 1.5C warming milestone.

It will also affect world weather, potentially bringing drought to Australia, more rain to the southern US, and weakening India's monsoon.

The event will likely last until next spring, after which its impacts will recede."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65839...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (TugBoatEng)

SwinnyGG, there are hundreds of ways to describe a building's efficiency.

Again, you're demonstrating clear lack of knowledge of the field.

There are very well defined industry standards that describe exactly how building envelopes and MEP systems are evaluated with regard to energy efficiency. There are a couple of different systems approaches with their own methods - but they are all well developed. There is no ambiguity.

There are some very well defined standards that are used for energy efficiency of buildings. But, my impression has always been that these are like QB ratings in the NFL. They are specific rules about how they are calculated. However, they don't tell the whole story. You can manipulate the building to improve the rating in ways that do not improve the REALITY of the performance.

Didn't Tim Teabow have a terrible QB rating and a wonderful QBR (or vice versa). Whereas when anyone who knows football would watch a game and see that he was not an effective quarterback. He did some things well (rushing, avoiding turnovers). But, the proof is in the pudding.... no one in the NFL wanted him to run their offense because he just couldn't do it. Whether he wasn't very smart (he wasn't) or he couldn't throw the ball quickly or accurately (he couldn't). But, all the NFL cares about is winning games. He seemed to do that reasonably well. But, the reality is that TEBOW wasn't the reason why the Broncos won games. They had a historically good defense. He was, at best, a game manager. Which we saw when they signed a real QB (Peyton Manning) and what that did for the team.

I feel like all these LEED ratings are similar. They mostly measure how good of a job you do manipulating the rules of the LEED rating system. It's a good system, in that owners who want better energy efficiency can get something that has value and which increases the value of the building. But, they genuinely do not tell the whole story.

Quote:

There are very well defined industry standards that describe exactly how building envelopes and MEP systems are evaluated with regard to energy efficiency.

I am very aware of this. The problem is that we don't know exactly what industry standard is being used. It's NEVER stated or even implied.

Dik,
I thought these threads were about man made climate change. El Niño and La Niña cycles predate the industrial revolution.

Did you think for a minute that man made climate change may have a serious impact on ENSO? We'll may find out later this year, just how much.

"El Niño is developing rapidly, with an official watch currently in effect, issued by NOAA. A moderate to strong El Niño event is expected to occur, with global weather impacts in the second half of the year and over the Winter season of 2023/2024. Based on the latest global anomaly data, this El Niño might be something we have never seen before in such an environment.

Ocean anomalies have a known impact on the atmosphere and our weather on smaller and larger scales, especially during the Winter season, when the pressure systems are strongest."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

dik, you said man made correct? Right on it is man engineered climate change. Just look how it is being used, the new regs and all that, the changing of our lives.

Hold on to your hat, there could be a lot more changes coming.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

Hold on to your hat, there could be a lot more changes coming.

Hold onto your wallet; there's always changes when it comes to the weather and the climate. The politicians and opportunists will use every one as an excuse to pick your pockets.

That too...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The part about residential energy efficiency which always amazed me is that regulators set such a low standard in the southern states where HVAC drives much higher energy demand than in the north.

It's still a power requirement. My undergrad study was in hydraulics and water resources. Manitoba was in the enviable position that our peak hydro loads were in the winter and we exported hydro to the states in the summer, to service AC units. This has changed, we now have a high demand in the summer for AC. Additional improvements to the building envelope help reduce the building's energy consumption... it helps both north and south. From our perspective, it appears that many of the southern states are caught in a bit of a 'time warp'. This will change, I hope.

As an aside... a couple of days back, in western Manitoba, the news reports that we had hailstones the size of softballs... I've seen them the size of ping pong balls, but nothing that huge. This could be a feature of new climate conditions. I remember as a kid, reaching my hand out the window trying to catch a hailstone to see what they were like... only ever did that once... We'll have to see what happens.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

don't worry ... "they" will take away our AC ... as a first world luxury that we can't afford any more

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

It may reach a point, where most people will not be able to afford them...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Standards of dress & grooming may need adjusted accordingly :)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

As building density is increased so is the need for air conditioning. This is not related to an increase in temperature.

I haven't done any sums on it, but I suspect apartment buildings are/can be more energy efficient than individual homes, due to an economy of scale and the large number of 'interior' walls that would normally be exterior and a common roof. If this is the case, there may be more of this in future.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Yeah, dik, that reminds me of something I read a while ago:

Welcome To 2030: I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy And Life Has Never Been Better

Quote (Ida Auken)

Welcome to the year 2030. Welcome to my city - or should I say, "our city." I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes.

It might seem odd to you, but it makes perfect sense for us in this city. Everything you considered a product, has now become a service. We have access to transportation, accommodation, food and all the things we need in our daily lives. One by one all these things became free, so it ended up not making sense for us to own much.

I don't think we're going to get there, and if it does, I hope it's not in my lifetime.

Actually, if we don't stop using fossil fuels in the next 12 days, we'll reach the tipping point where it will to too late to do anything about climate change. Greta Thunberg said so.

Quote (dik)

I suspect apartment buildings are/can be more energy efficient than individual homes

Speaking in generalities - because building age is a major factor in energy consumption per capita for both single family and multi-family structures - multi family structures are MUCH more energy efficient from a consumption per household or consumption per capita standpoint. It is not particularly close, even give that there's quite a lot of old multi-family building stock in the US.

I dont doubt that multi families can be more efficient but would be curious to see a study of actual usage from an unbiased entity. IME regardless if they're condos or apartment complexes, building management tends not to care as much about being energy efficient bc the individual occupants are usually the ones paying the utility bills so the emphasis is more on cost than on using quality materials and methods.

Quote (because building age is a major factor in energy consumption per capita for both single family and multi-family structures)

Yes... and our original house that was constructed in about 1913 had 2x4@16 studs and the wood chip insulation was located in the bottom 2' of the walls... All new construction should be brought up to current energy standards, or better. This applies to single unit housing and/or high rise apartments. Every effort has to be made to minimise heat loss, in particular through doors and glazing.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

More possible events... we didn't need those pesky aardvarks, anyway.

"A trio of macro-biologists and life scientists, two with Queen's University Belfast and the third with Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, has found that the modern "sixth mass extinction" event is going to be even worse than prior research has shown.

In their study, reported in the journal Biological Reviews, Catherine Finn, Daniel Pincheira-Donoso and Florencia Grattarola, analyzed population trend data for more than 71,000 animal species to learn more about declines.

Over the past several decades, it has become clear that global biodiversity has been declining due to human activities including conversion of habitat, use of pesticides and herbicides and more recently, climate change. It is not known how many species are extinct due to such activities, but scientists have been trying to track species at highest risk of disappearing."

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-anthropocene-sixth-m...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I have experienced this. The denser the human population the lower the biodiversity of the region. In large metropolitan areas it seems the only animals that thrive are the scavengers. These include the rats, pigeons, seagulls, flies, and drug addicts.

...and from 1965:

"In a report from 1965, scientists from the US government warned that our ongoing use of fossil fuels would cause global warming with potentially disastrous consequences for Earth’s climate. The report, one of the first government-produced documents to predict a major crisis caused by humanity’s large-scale activities, noted that the likely consequences would include higher global temperatures, the melting of the ice caps and rising sea levels. ‘Through his worldwide industrial civilisation,’ the report concluded, ‘Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment’ – an experiment with a highly uncertain outcome, but clear and important risks for life on Earth."

https://aeon.co/essays/theres-a-deeper-problem-hid...

I first heard about global warming from a series of tapes on cybernetics prepared by Dr. Ken McLachlan of the University of Southampton, UK, that he had prepared in the mid sixties. He mentioned the term that we may 'already be on that slippery slope'. When I asked him what he meant, he explained.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (we'll reach the tipping point where it will to too late to do anything about climate change.)

I think the next couple of years will be interesting... it may give an inkling about the possible rapid rate of change in the weather as a harbinger to the future.

Quote (...or any clothes.)

In Winnipeg, you could freeze your thingamagiggers off... and in Florida, you would likely get thrown in jail.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

With respect to insurance, from Bloomberg:

"As escalating catastrophes take a toll on profitability, insurance companies are getting better at looking forward. The results aren’t pretty."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-09...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

@Tug... there's a question on a thread thread770-507717: Compass question excel that you may not frequent, but you may be able to answer... thanks...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Paywalled. Price of insurance is linked to the cost of rebuilding, and the riskiness of any individual site. Modern people have a penchant for building more expensive houses often in forests or floodplains. And of course it does the insurance industry no harm to announce that its getting worse... prepares the punters for sticker shock.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

The wealthy are responsible for a larger part of climate change. Even though they lose more money, will suffer far less than those that are less well off (aka the poor).

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Yes, and your bar chart indicates that fewer people are dying, and the people that are dying have more stuff. I don't see either trend as bad.

Meanwhile the net profitability of USA P&C insurance companies hovers around 9%. https://www.iii.org/table-archive/21113

Net profit after tax/net premiums written.

I wish I was working in an industry where that was the norm.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

The reduction in deaths is likely a result of better advanced notification of serious climate events.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

So we should focus on adaptations and forget about trying to change the weather?

For added info about fatalities...

https://www.monash.edu/medicine/news/latest/2021-a...

The problem is Tug, that we don't know where this event will stop, and what the end conditions will be. It may reach a point where you can no longer adapt, or at least reasonably.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Tornadoes... the article does not reference climate change, but has interesting information about tornadoes.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/09/weather/deadliest-t...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Declining damage from tornadoes since 1950

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

If you go from 1916 1961, you get a different answer. We'll have to wait to see how this 'shakes out'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Show the data.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

for data... look at the chart you posted...

Some news from down under...

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Wildfires are helping increase the temperature...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oehpBKiOV5s

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Greenburgers...

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-lab-grown-meat-carbo...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

No, the chart I posted 11 Jun 23 goes back to 1950, where's the data back to 1916?

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

sorry typo 1961...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

sorry typo 1961...

Just when I think maybe you're coming around, and that perhaps my feeling that you're deliberately LOOKING for bad data to support your alarmist point of view may be wrong, you post something like this.

Yes, depending on where you start, the trend in tornado damage can be up or down. What does it matter? Damage levels are not an indicator of tornado intensity or frequency, but only where a few happened to hit. Considering the increase in built structures and their cost (even relative construction costs continue to rise), the trend should show an increase in costs. Early warning most likely saves lives, but it doesn't help the buildings and such in the path of the tornado. Oddly enough, what does help is the urban heat island effect, which creates a 'bubble' of warmer air, which tends to deflect tornadoes around big cities.

Even if you were to look at the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, any trends would be based on speculation and assumptions about how many tornadoes that can be detected and classified now, were not detected, and the ones that were, we can only guess at the intensity. It's the same issue that we have trying to compare hurricanes now and in the past - depending on what you assume, you can make the numbers come out any way you want them to.

I agree that the start and end points for straight line fits are important, they are very heavily weighted compared with the ones near the middle. If that were my plot I think binning them in 10 year bins would make for a more convincing trend.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

I'm more interested to see how things are changing in 'real time'. There's no question that climate change could be a little 'blip' in geologic time, but I doubt it, and the changes are happening too quickly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (wrong, you post something like this.)

Sorry swinny... it was an accidental typo. my apologies...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Sorry swinny... it was an accidental typo. my apologies...

Dude. It's not the typo.

It's the attitude of 'that data looks bad for my argument, but I can make it look great for my argument if I pick an arbitrary cutoff'

That's pure intellectual dishonesty.

Quote (dik)

There's no question that climate change could be a little 'blip' in geologic time,

The long term geological data says basically, exactly this.

Quote (dik)

but I doubt it

Why - because you read a huffpost article about a wildfire? Because it doesn't 'feel right' based on the narrative you have already decided to fully commit to?

Here we are. Intellectual dishonesty again.

It may not just be climate that we sh0uld be concerned about:

"People once believed the planet could always accommodate us — that the resilience of the Earth system meant nature would always provide. But we now know this is not necessarily the case. As big as the world is, our impact is bigger.

In research released May 31, an international team of scientists from the Earth Commission, of which we were part, identified eight “safe” and “just” boundaries spanning five vital planetary systems: climate change, the biosphere, freshwater, nutrient use in fertilizers, and air pollution. This is the first time an assessment of boundaries has quantified the harms to people from changes to the Earth system.

“Safe” means boundaries maintaining stability and resilience of our planetary systems on which we rely. “Just”, in this work, means boundaries which minimize significant harm to people. Together, they’re a health barometer for the planet.

Assessing our planet’s health is a big task. It took the expertise of 51 world-leading researchers from natural and social sciences. Our methods included modelling, literature reviews and expert judgement. We assessed factors such as tipping point risks, declines in Earth system functions, historical variability, and effects on people."

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"But even now, with warming at 1.2℃, many people around the world are being hit hard by climate-linked disasters, such as the recent extreme heat in China, fires in Canada, severe floods in Pakistan, and droughts in the United States and the Horn of Africa."

As discussed FAIL. So 2 out of 5 ain't bad.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

The problem is that maybe it's just a start.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The US may have some catching up to do...

"China has reached its goal to have more non-fossil fuel installed electricity capacity than fossil fuels earlier than planned, with 50.9% of its power capacity coming from non-fossil fuel sources now, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported on Monday.

Back in 2021, the Chinese authorities said they would target renewables to outpace fossil fuel-installed capacity by 2025.
China is unmatched in renewable energy spending globally, investing in raising its solar and wind power capacity.

China’s wind and solar power generation has jumped in recent years to nearly equal domestic residential electricity consumption, but the relatively small share of household demand in overall consumption means that China still needs a lot of fossil fuels."

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The kids will be the ones that will be affected.

"HELENA, MONT. - Rikki Held decided to join other young plaintiffs in a lawsuit to force Montana officials to do something about climate change after watching wildfires blacken the sky over her family's ranch, drought stress the cattle and violent floods erode the banks of a nearby river.
Held and 15 other young people finally got their day in court Monday after suing state officials three years ago for failing to take action to curb global warming. The case is the first climate change lawsuit to reach trial among dozens filed across the U.S. in the last decade.

They are trying to persuade state District Judge Kathy Seeley over a two-week trial that the state's allegiance to fossil fuel development endangers their health and livelihoods and threatens future generations."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/you...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The North Atlantic is heating up... can the South Atlantic be far behind?

"He and other researchers said there are several factors that may be contributing to the off-the-charts warming, which is occurring alongside other climate woes including record-shattering wildfires in Canada, rapidly declining sea ice in Antarctica and unusually warm temperatures in many parts of the world, not including Southern California.

Underlying everything is human-caused climate change, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

But atop that are a handful of other potential factors, including the early arrival of El Niño; the recent eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano; new regulations around sulfur aerosol emissions or even a dearth of Saharan dust.

"The North Atlantic is record-shatteringly warm right now," Swain said during a briefing Monday. "There has never been any day in observed history where the entire North Atlantic has been nearly as warm as it is right now, at any time of year."

Nearly all of the Atlantic basin is experiencing anomalous warmth, including the Irminger Sea southeast of Greenland, the western Mediterranean Sea, and the tropics "all the way from Africa to at least the Caribbean," said Gregory Johnson, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory."

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ocean-temperatures-e...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Context, nothing unusual

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014166117

While instrumental studies are better than proxy based ones, at least we can check if the proxies are moving the same way as the instruments, unlike in the infamous hockey stick.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

dik,

Do you read those articles you link, or just the headlines? Best to read and digest, particularly if they come from Chinese sources. Some funny numbers there.

Quote (dik)

"People once believed the planet could always accommodate us — that the resilience of the Earth system meant nature would always provide. But we now know this is not necessarily the case. As big as the world is, our impact is bigger.

This quote stirred up something in my mind about the fundamental difference between me and the "environmentalists". Note: this isn't directed specifically at Dik, it's just his post that made me think about it.

The problem that I have with the "environmentalists" that I see in the political spectrum is that they don't really care about lowering CO2 emissions. They really don't. They are the biggest opponents to nuclear power plants (which have zero CO2 emissions). The oppose solar plants like Ivanpah in the Mojave desert (which has very low CO2 emissions). They generally are the ones most opposed to the construction of hydro power / dams (which have zero CO2 emissions). Why?

What these "environmentalists" actually care about is "human impact". They wish that the earth could return to a period when human impact on the environment didn't exist. It's like a religion with mother earth and the "natural" environment being their God and Heaven. They oppose Nuclear because they can't stand that it produces pollution. You can demonstrate to them that the pollution is VERY small compared to other forms of pollution. But, it offends them because the radioactive waste lasts hundreds of years. Maybe even thousands. And, long term human impact cannot be tolerated (in their minds).

They oppose Hydro Power because it necessitates the diverting or re-routing of rivers in order to create a reservoir and Dam. That's too much of a human impact for them. They worry more about fish that could be impacted.

They fight FOR solar projects in concept. But, they oppose them whenever they see the reality. Why? Well, Ivanpah uses a lot of land in the Mojave desert which think of as "unspoiled" nature before Ivanpah came along. They worry about desert tortoises, or tiny moths or such. They care about all of these things more than they care about CO2 reduction.

They want CO2 reduction by legislating away fossil fuels, as long as they are replaced by anything that has any human impact on the environment.


They are like the self flagellating priest from "The Scarlett Letter". They hate themselves for having an impact on the "pristine" world that is there god.

Folks like me, on the other hand, are concerned about CO2 emissions. As such, we want to reduce fossil fuel use. But, not because we think they are evil. We are 100% for other forms of power that emit less CO2. We are realistic about the trade offs of fossil fuels vs other sources of power.

Quote (Do you read those articles you link)

Yup... I'm aware some of the sources are Chinese, just like some of them are Australian and American... I generally consider the origin when I read articles. Do they use Australian coal? or is Australia selling their coal elsewhere? I see because of climate change the UK put one of their coal burners on line recently to accommodate their air conditioning.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I agree Josh... I'm pro nuclear and hydro, too, if done properly it is very renewable power and nearly carbon free. I agree that some of the environmentalists are 'out to lunch'. A lot of power in Canada is Hydro... and there have been some 'bad' engineering decisions made, but hydro is very green. I don't wear an engineering ring because of the bad engineering undertaken by Manitoba Hydro 50 years ago. My first experience with bad engineering.

Part of the solution is cutting down on energy requirements. This is essential to a solution, and no one seems to be addressing it. Fossil fuels have to go, and the sooner the better.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Nuclear may not be a better option.


Other users here have pointed out that there has not been a definitive link between GHG and global temperature. Here is an article linking the temperature trends to waste heat.

https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen....

Nuclear power generates a lot more waste heat than any other source of power.

However, the author makes a very fundamental oversight. In the case of electricity, all of the energy becomes heat eventually, it's not just the waste heat from generation inefficiency.

Concur... hydro is the best... It's a matter of reclaiming as much heat as you can from nuclear facilities.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Josh - that's why I call them the people-haters.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote (dik)

China has reached its goal to have more non-fossil fuel installed electricity capacity than fossil fuels earlier than planned, with 50.9% of its power capacity coming from non-fossil fuel sources now

More CCP propaganda from you, with your "capacity" sleight of hand.

China's actual electricity generation is two-thirds coal fired, and their coal usage is absolute terms continues to increase.

Not just China propaganda... catch the bar charts...



Coal is just an uglier fossil fuel than the others gas and oil... China's fossil fuel consumption is a fraction of the US.

and as far as coal goes...



considering their population is 5x that of the US, they still aren't doing so bad.

Using them as a scapegoat to prevent actively addressing the carbon problem is just a manner of deferring actions that will likely have to be taken in the near future. As Greta notes, "Rich countries are signing a “death sentence” for millions of poor people around the world by failing to phase out fossil fuels, the climate activist Greta Thunberg has told governments."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/1...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I love coal, and China and India buy lots of it. Without coal, Queensland would be third world.

If you're going to post quotes from Greta Thunberg, I can too, right?



Apparently, we only have a week left to stop using fossil fuels. Highly unlikely we're going to make it.

Quote (dik)

catch the bar charts...

and you miss the point as always. deliberately it seems.

You quoted Chinese "capacity" figures, to justify your false claim that china gets the majority of its electricty from non fossil fuel sources. But the reality is that when it comes to actual generation (not just capacity), the chinese grid is overwhelmingly powered by coal. And so what do you do when the talk moves to "generation"?, you do your useful ball and cup scam and flip back to "per capita" figures, so as to avoid the elephant in the room that your darling China is far and away the world's largest user of coal.

Coal consumption by country, China uses more than half of the total global figure

Country Yearly Coal Consumption
(MMcf) World
Share Cubic Feet
Per Capita
1 China 4,319,921,826,000 50.5 % 3,055.00
2 India 966,288,692,600 11.3 % 729.54
3 United States 731,071,000,000 8.5 % 2,263.27
4 Germany 257,488,592,900 3.0 % 3,132.70
5 Russia 230,392,143,100 2.7 % 1,585.90
6 Japan 210,559,949,300 2.5 % 1,648.05
7 South Africa 202,298,474,200 2.4 % 3,599.13
8 South Korea 157,124,158,500 1.8 % 3,081.87
9 Poland 148,799,901,400 1.7 % 3,916.90
10 Australia 129,642,679,100 1.5 % 5,343.29
11 Turkey 116,877,929,300 1.4 % 1,464.12
12 Indonesia 102,623,737,100 1.2 % 392.36
13 Kazakhstan 86,633,849,830 1.0 % 4,858.64
14 Taiwan 72,649,581,410 0.8 % 3,076.00
15 Ukraine 59,357,188,880 0.7 % 1,327.49
16 Vietnam 56,641,097,040 0.7 % 604.88
17 Czech Republic (Czechia) 49,418,771,720 0.6 % 4,653.87
18 Serbia 43,189,608,110 0.5 % 4,878.00
19 Canada 42,907,416,750 0.5 % 1,179.33
20 Thailand 42,674,985,870 0.5 % 618.74
21 United Kingdom 41,459,830,190 0.5 % 625.36
22 Greece 38,077,094,330 0.4 % 3,587.04
23 Bulgaria 35,234,236,840 0.4 % 4,926.52
24 Malaysia 33,022,853,070 0.4 % 1,076.20
25 Brazil 27,275,972,010 0.3 % 132.30
26 Romania 26,886,238,620 0.3 % 1,358.15
27 Mexico 22,478,332,230 0.3 % 182.26
28 Philippines 22,372,483,760 0.3 % 215.82
29 Spain 21,948,094,410 0.3 % 470.64
30 Italy 18,787,634,320 0.2 % 309.70
31 Netherlands 18,203,547,340 0.2 % 1,071.98
32 Chile 14,077,601,010 0.2 % 773.11
33 France 12,900,349,260 0.2 % 199.49
34 Hong Kong 12,303,072,610 0.1 % 1,698.49
35 Hungary 11,663,542,110 0.1 % 1,195.90
36 Colombia 11,385,457,170 0.1 % 236.34
37 North Korea 10,707,839,340 0.1 % 423.11
38 Pakistan 10,199,674,430 0.1 % 50.09
39 Israel 10,167,719,520 0.1 % 1,253.88
40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9,466,163,184 0.1 % 2,795.46
41 Mongolia 8,823,723,592 0.1 % 2,887.00
42 Morocco 7,153,991,900 0.1 % 203.66
43 Slovakia 6,708,666,633 0.1 % 1,232.76
44 North Macedonia 5,987,017,899 0.1 % 2,877.35
45 Finland 5,310,768,554 0.1 % 966.00
46 Portugal 5,290,177,075 0.1 % 512.34
47 Laos 5,247,933,857 0.1 % 766.59
48 Uzbekistan 4,770,797,680 0.1 % 151.73
49 Slovenia 4,143,583,290 0.0 % 1,997.67
50 Belgium 4,035,556,910 0.0 % 355.42
51 Denmark 3,985,952,960 0.0 % 697.90
52 Austria 3,886,745,060 0.0 % 444.34
53 Zimbabwe 3,388,555,286 0.0 % 241.52
54 Sweden 2,857,190,916 0.0 % 290.48
55 New Zealand 2,765,589,930 0.0 % 593.57
56 Ireland 2,474,685,950 0.0 % 527.00
57 United Arab Emirates 2,454,173,243 0.0 % 262.17
58 Kyrgyzstan 2,447,128,200 0.0 % 402.86
59 Sri Lanka 2,295,009,420 0.0 % 109.18
60 Bangladesh 2,099,900,000 0.0 % 13.29
61 Afghanistan 1,871,722,380 0.0 % 52.90
62 Guatemala 1,751,570,590 0.0 % 105.62
63 Cambodia 1,625,907,250 0.0 % 103.13
64 Puerto Rico 1,565,870,822 0.0 % 476.95
65 Tajikistan 1,511,267,010 0.0 % 174.44
66 Montenegro 1,500,243,910 0.0 % 2,391.73
67 Iran 1,472,686,160 0.0 % 18.51
68 Argentina 1,403,477,115 0.0 % 32.26
69 Botswana 1,356,943,610 0.0 % 628.24
70 Peru 1,267,656,500 0.0 % 40.99
71 Dominican Republic 1,215,241,660 0.0 % 116.88
72 Croatia 1,179,627,009 0.0 % 280.29
73 New Caledonia 1,155,220,880 0.0 % 4,213.20
74 Norway 824,527,880 0.0 % 157.02
75 Mauritius 772,967,330 0.0 % 612.56
76 Egypt 769,412,380 0.0 % 8.15
77 Singapore 761,679,182 0.0 % 134.72
78 Belarus 681,227,580 0.0 % 72.12
79 Madagascar 566,337,256 0.0 % 22.75
80 Ethiopia 539,255,173 0.0 % 5.20
81 Kenya 537,358,860 0.0 % 10.95
82 Myanmar 536,769,855 0.0 % 10.12
83 Senegal 448,640,170 0.0 % 29.92
84 Georgia 419,462,024 0.0 % 104.46
85 Kuwait 387,108,873 0.0 % 97.83
86 Panama 330,693,000 0.0 % 81.91
87 Tanzania 327,860,928 0.0 % 6.18
88 Nepal 283,302,995 0.0 % 10.39
89 Lithuania 272,313,067 0.0 % 94.24
90 Niger 261,247,470 0.0 % 12.57
91 Jordan 242,508,200 0.0 % 25.38
92 Switzerland 199,518,110 0.0 % 23.81
93 Nigeria 193,329,582 0.0 % 1.04
94 Zambia 183,692,986 0.0 % 11.23
95 Honduras 180,778,840 0.0 % 19.50
96 Venezuela 180,696,035 0.0 % 6.05
97 Togo 161,047,737 0.0 % 21.44
98 Eswatini 159,863,179 0.0 % 143.50
99 Moldova 137,788,750 0.0 % 33.89
100 Iceland 136,686,440 0.0 % 411.45
101 Lebanon 135,975,839 0.0 % 20.25
102 Yemen 133,379,510 0.0 % 4.91
103 Saudi Arabia 122,986,931 0.0 % 3.79
104 Bhutan 96,000,000 0.0 % 130.31
105 Albania 95,900,970 0.0 % 33.22
106 Oman 94,990,251 0.0 % 21.21
107 Luxembourg 89,198,115 0.0 % 153.99
108 Benin 87,775,843 0.0 % 8.07
109 Malawi 85,915,364 0.0 % 4.99
110 Jamaica 80,468,630 0.0 % 27.69
111 Latvia 67,861,344 0.0 % 34.37
112 Algeria 27,321,049 0.0 % 0.67
113 Estonia 19,762,405 0.0 % 15.01
114 Ecuador 13,555,288 0.0 % 0.82
115 DR Congo 12,538,033 0.0 % 0.16
116 Mozambique 12,125,410 0.0 % 0.44
117 Syria 5,526,160 0.00 % 0.32
118 Namibia 5,523,724 0.00 % 2.34
119 Tunisia 2,259,332 0.00 % 0.20
120 Cuba 2,066,443 0.00 % 0.18
121 Paraguay 1,679,929 0.00 % 0.25
122 Armenia 1,322,685 0.00 % 0.45
123 Uruguay 436,631 0.000 % 0.13
124 Cyprus 223,541 0.000 % 0.19
125 Trinidad and Tobago 198,416 0.000 % 0.14
126 Azerbaijan 178,010 0.000 % 0.02
127 Costa Rica 109,768 0.000 % 0.02
128 Malta 56,098 0.0000 % 0.13
129 Ghana 17,099 0.0000 % 0.00
130 Fiji 710 0.0000 % 0.00

Sources
Statistical Review of World Energy - British Petroleum
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote:

Coal consumption by country, China uses more than half of the total global figure

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, China also use more coal per capita than the US. The last number in each line is the per capita coal usage, right? 3,055 CF for China; 2,263 for US.

Interestingly enough, Australia tops the per capita coal usage:

5343.29 10 Australia 129,642,679,100 1.5 % 5,343.29
4926.52 23 Bulgaria 35,234,236,840 0.4 % 4,926.52
4878 18 Serbia 43,189,608,110 0.5 % 4,878.00
4858.64 13 Kazakhstan 86,633,849,830 1.0 % 4,858.64
4653.87 17 Czech Republic (Czechia) 49,418,771,720 0.6 % 4,653.87
4213.2 73 New Caledonia 1,155,220,880 0.0 % 4,213.20
3916.9 9 Poland 148,799,901,400 1.7 % 3,916.90
3599.13 7 South Africa 202,298,474,200 2.4 % 3,599.13
3587.04 22 Greece 38,077,094,330 0.4 % 3,587.04
3132.7 4 Germany 257,488,592,900 3.0 % 3,132.70
3081.87 8 South Korea 157,124,158,500 1.8 % 3,081.87
3076 14 Taiwan 72,649,581,410 0.8 % 3,076.00
3055 1 China 4,319,921,826,000 50.5 % 3,055.00
2887 41 Mongolia 8,823,723,592 0.1 % 2,887.00
2877.35 44 North Macedonia 5,987,017,899 0.1 % 2,877.35
2795.46 40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9,466,163,184 0.1 % 2,795.46
2391.73 66 Montenegro 1,500,243,910 0.0 % 2,391.73
2263.27 3 United States 731,071,000,000 8.5 % 2,263.27
1997.67 49 Slovenia 4,143,583,290 0.0 % 1,997.67
1698.49 34 Hong Kong 12,303,072,610 0.1 % 1,698.49
1648.05 6 Japan 210,559,949,300 2.5 % 1,648.05
1585.9 5 Russia 230,392,143,100 2.7 % 1,585.90
1464.12 11 Turkey 116,877,929,300 1.4 % 1,464.12
1358.15 26 Romania 26,886,238,620 0.3 % 1,358.15
1327.49 15 Ukraine 59,357,188,880 0.7 % 1,327.49
1253.88 39 Israel 10,167,719,520 0.1 % 1,253.88
1232.76 43 Slovakia 6,708,666,633 0.1 % 1,232.76
1195.9 35 Hungary 11,663,542,110 0.1 % 1,195.90
1179.33 19 Canada 42,907,416,750 0.5 % 1,179.33
1076.2 24 Malaysia 33,022,853,070 0.4 % 1,076.20
1071.98 31 Netherlands 18,203,547,340 0.2 % 1,071.98



Also interesting is that the ranking is similar but not the same for "Per capita energy consumption from coal"

That's correct... but coal is only one of the three fossil fuels that are the problem. They are all bad...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (China uses more than half of the total global figure)

That's correct. The chart was for the change in use, which is still increasing. This likely is not a positive thing. The numbers should be on the other side of the origin.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik (today))

but coal is only one of the three fossil fuels that are the problem. They are all bad...

Quote (dik (Yesterday))

Coal is just an uglier fossil fuel than the others...

Quote (dik)

The chart was for the change in use, which is still increasing.

No, that 50.5% for China is the "World Share" of the "Yearly Coal Consumption". IOW, China's consumption of coal is just over half of the world total.

@Bridge... 'will' is pretty definitive; maybe 'can' is still extreme.

We don't know where this is going, or what the scientist based his statement on. One thing for sure is that we have not decreased our carbon output and things have not improved, climate wise. We also do not know his timeline; it could be the event will occur in a century, or so. I don't think we are headed for an 'all humanity' situation, but it could get pretty ugly.

There was an article in the Washington Post last week about the oceans warming much greater than the models indicated. I suspect this is not good.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

@Bridge... 'will' is pretty definitive; maybe 'can' is still extreme.

The point is that Greta is an ignorant child (I know she's 20 years old now, but I think the description is still applicable), who knows only what she has been fed. Quoting her as some sort of expert or authority on the subject is laughable, and makes the poster appear ignorant, as well.

Quote (No, that 50.5% for China is the "World Share" of the "Yearly Coal Consumption". IOW, China's consumption of coal is just over half of the world total.)

It could be... the reason I posted the chart was that it was the 'change in use' and the numbers are going the wrong way, even for the 'good guys'. There's no question that China is the #1 user of coal, but the effects come from the use of 'all fossil fuels', not just coal. Their increase in use does not bode well.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Quoting her as some sort of expert or authority on the subject is laughable, and makes the poster appear ignorant, as well.)

Her statement was that she was informed of this by a climate scientist. Her actions are pretty astute for a 'child'; she was 15 at the time. She's done more to raise the awareness of what could be a real serious, and 'real' problem than anyone else that comes to mind.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

And what qualifies one to be a "climate scientist"? It is such a vague term. Think of the term "engineer". An engineer could give an opinion on a bridge design but what would the quality of that opinion be if we get more specific and say it's a software engineer giving it.

Quote (dik)

Using them as a scapegoat to prevent actively addressing the carbon problem is just a manner of deferring actions that will likely have to be taken in the near future

No one is using China as a 'scapegoat'... YOU are the one who brought China into the discussion originally. Any conversation on China is rebuttal to your ridiculous attempts to make China out to be some sort of fossil fuel consumption white night. None of us understand why you keep doing that.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

The point is that Greta is an ignorant child (I know she's 20 years old now, but I think the description is still applicable), who knows only what she has been fed.

I 100% agree.... What's more is that the way her parents have fed this fear into her (and the way the media has hyped her up) should probably be viewed as a form of child abuse. Not enough to get her removed from her family or anything that serious. But, the idea that the media has eaten up this quasi-abuse with such gusto is truly sad.

Look at the way the media reports on this poor girl. Look at the way they report on Global Warming. Look at the way they report on transwomen invading women's sports. Look at the way they report on trans indoctrination of young school kids vs the "don't say gay bill" which merely said that public schools cannot discuss gender and sexuality for K through 3rd grade. It's no wonder why the public has so little confidence in the media these days.

Quote (And what qualifies one to be a "climate scientist")

...anyone that does detailed study on climate and applies the scientific method of addressing questions.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (No one is using China as a 'scapegoat'... YOU are the one who brought China into the discussion originally. Any conversation on China is rebuttal to your ridiculous attempts to make China out to be some sort of fossil fuel consumption white night. None of us understand why you keep doing that.)

You misunderstand Swinny... they are not a white knight... they are just as bad as the other carbon emitters... just not as bad as they are painted.

On a per capita basis they output half the carbon that the US does. It reflects badly on them because they have 5x the population. India is also regarded as a 'bad carbon dude' but when their large population is considered, they output 1/10 that of the US.

It's just an excuse the west is using to permit them to defer any action.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Things are starting to warm up. What's worse is that every place is warming faster than every other place!

What to do?

(Posted mostly for the entertainment value)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

Quote:

On a per capita basis they output half the carbon that the US does. It reflects badly on them because they have 5x the population. India is also regarded as a 'bad carbon dude' but when their large population is considered, they output 1/10 that of the US.

It's just an excuse the west is using to permit them to defer any action.

No, it's recognizing the reality that unilateral action by the US, will not have a significant effect on global CO2 emissions.

It cannot be unilateral... it is a world problem that needs to be solved by all parties involved.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

New new nuclear reactor

"It has several advantages over uranium reactors, including safety, reduced waste, better fuel efficiency and suitability for use in arid landlocked areas
The tech is expected to strengthen China’s energy security as the nation has abundant thorium reserves"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/32...

at least Canada's produces plutonium, which is marketable...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

...not likely a good thing:

"Heatwaves this summer are leading to increased reliance on oil, gas, and coal as countries struggle to meet peak energy demands.

Europe and Asia are experiencing higher temperatures, posing risks of drought, environmental damage, and energy shortages.

Despite renewable energy growth, countries like the UK and India are resorting to coal and gas due to the limitations of green energy infrastructure."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Heatwav...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Getting warmer...

"Global temperatures have accelerated to record-setting levels this month, an ominous sign in the climate crisis ahead of a gathering El Niño that could potentially propel 2023 to become the hottest year ever recorded.

Preliminary global average temperatures taken so far in June are nearly 1C (1.8F) above levels previously recorded for the same month, going back to 1979. While the month is not yet complete and may not set a new June record, climate scientists say it follows a pattern of strengthening global heating that could see this year named the hottest ever recorded, topping 2016.

There has been “remarkable global warmth” so far in June, confirmed Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation arm, which said that the first few days of the month even breached a 1.5C increase compared with pre-industrial times. This is probably the first time this has happened since industrialization, the agency said.

The long-term warming conditions caused by the burning of fossil fuels will probably receive a further pulse of heat via El Niño, a naturally recurring phenomenon where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, typically causing temperatures to spike across the world."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/1...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

It cannot be unilateral... it is a world problem that needs to be solved by all parties involved.

Exactly my point. As long as China and India aren't reigning in their fossil fuel use, it's ridiculous for the US to ruin its economy in order to cut emissions. Are you going to make China and India to cut their CO2 emissions? Who do you think can?

Unintended consequences.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/federal-watchdog-...

Quote (Dik)

There's no question that China is the #1 user of coal, but the effects come from the use of 'all fossil fuels', not just coal.

China is the worlds largest consumer of coal.

China is also the worlds largest consumer of all fossil fuels.

Not correct, Tom. on a per capita basis... not even close. They have 5x the population of the US.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuels-pe...

Not on a



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (DIK)

Not correct, Tom

Yes, correct, dik. Your beloved China is the world's largest consumer of coal, and the world's largest consumer of all fossil fuels.

Their insane population does not reduce the staggering amounts of CO2 they emit, which are the world's largest by a long long way, a fact you have great difficulty reconciling yourself with.

Josh... it appears that some people are paying attention to Greta...

"The study by Climate Analytics says global fossil fuel use must drop by around 40% over the decade, with coal falling by 79%."

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Their insane population does not reduce the staggering amounts of CO2 they emit, which are the world's largest by a long long way, a fact you have great difficulty reconciling yourself with.)

Like it or not, Tom, the US per capita carbon footprint is twice that of China. I'm not siding with China, I'm simply stating the facts. I've not encountered any studies that show China is even close to #1 when it comes to a per capita. You have to account for their population being 5x that of the US.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Tom:



That shows the info... now consider the much greater population of China.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That may indeed be the problem. How do we go about reducing the population of China?

China did that on its own for a while. Now going the other way.

What to do? :)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

It seems that the more comfortable you make a population the more slowly it grows. The less comfortable, the faster. Families in poverty tend to have many more children than wealthy families.

Families that perform hard, laborious work that aren't even in poverty tend to have more children than families with intellectual or political parents.

Quote:

China did that on its own for a while. Now going the other way.

Actually, I read that China's population is expected to start declining by sometime this year, and continue declining over the next decades. Even with the loosening of the limits on the number of children allowed, the birth rate is below the replacement rate, and it continues to drop.

Quote (That may indeed be the problem. How do we go about reducing the population of China?)

That may be a real problem. I understand that China, like so many countries, wants to increase the birth rate.



Part of the carbon problem is that China's growth in the last two decades have likely increased their rate of carbon footprint. I don't know if this is true, but it is likely.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Even with the loosening of the limits on the number of children allowed

No limits anymore, as of 2021. They face a rapidly ageing population and a shrinking labour force.

Ocean temperatures...

"The ocean is rapidly heating up, hitting record-breaking levels. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that ocean surface temperatures spiked in April and May to the highest levels recorded since the 1950s. All this could have dangerous consequences for aquatic life, hurricane activity and global weather patterns."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9SbFryYDqc

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Let the good times roll.
In order to sustain the good life in America, it would be beneficial if China reduced their use of fossil fuel.
Reducing the use of fossil fuel is both a cost and an inconvenience.
What I am hearing from some is that the cost and inconvenience to Americans can be reduced if a people who presently use fossil fuel at less than half of the per-capita rate of the US, endure more cost and inconvenience.
What's wrong with this picture?

--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

I think you're 'bang on'... In the near future, it may not be an option to give up dependence on fossil fuels.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

If we really cared about reducing fossil fuel emissions the West should be replacing coal power plants with gas and nuclear in low cost of construction countries. It's more bang for your buck that way. We should be doing the same with refugees, paying to house/treat them in low cost of living countries.

Of course, this will never happen because it won't reduce our own per capita emissions.

Coal is just one of the three fossil fuels that is the problem... It's the summation of them that creates the overall problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Don't let perfect be the enemy of progress.

One politician who realizes that energy supply cannot be compromised in the name of arbitrary emissions regulations.

https://nypost.com/2023/06/16/youngkin-virginia-ha...

I tell you wut:

https://www.wearethemighty.com/tactical/how-a-wwii...

Storms had more menacing names before climate change. Typhoon Viper knocked the bow off this ship.

No one seems to take fossil fuel seriously...

"China has delivered its first smart floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) with land-sea integrated operation system, marking a breakthrough in the country's application of the digital twin technology. The offshore oil and gas FPSO with a storage capacity of 100,000 tons is the first of its kind in China and employs diverse cutting-edge technologies including artificial intelligence (AI), edge computing, cloud computing, big data and the internet of things (IoT). The ship can process oil and gas on the sea thus eliminating the need for piping from offshore rigs to onshore factories."

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I've not heard about this type of motor.

"Mercedes-Benz recently acquired British axial flux motor designer YASA. The company's high-performance motor technology was on full display in the automaker's new Vision One-Eleven electric vehicle concept unveiled today. YASA's motor technology has so far only been seen on low-volume hybrid cars like McLarens and Ferraris, but we're about to see a whole lot more of them—and for good reason."

https://www.thedrive.com/news/why-axial-flux-motor...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Continued in:

thread1618-507973: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part X

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

About taking fossil fuel, seriously. Seriously. Surely you are confused. Sounds like common sense. And a big beneficiary is shipbuilding, especially in Korea.

There is also a financial risk. It has to be eliminated, not bought and paid for.

"By putting a price on the cost of carbon, the Government of Canada aims to curtail greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but it comes with an increased risk for financial lenders and borrowers with high carbon emissions.

In a first-of-its-kind study, University of Waterloo researchers analyzed the effects of Canada's carbon price regime on the economy. The results indicate that as carbon costs rise, high-emitting carbon industries such as mining and energy are at the greatest risk of default, with total assets of $256 billion at risk of being lost and almost a quarter of the Canadian GDP exposed to climate risk."

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-canada-carbon-pricin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

There is also a financial risk. It has to be eliminated, not bought and paid for.

How do you propose to accomplish that?