karma-dharma
karma-dharma
(OP)
I have a few questions.
Ancient Rome's population peaked at around a million people. London in the 19th century was the first city to surpass that. According to the UN's data booklet, The World's Cities in 2018, the number of cities with at least 1 million inhabitants were 548. Tokyo was the most populous with more than 37 million people.
Consider the amount of structures and infrastructure (electrical and plumbing systems, etc.) built in a relatively short period of time. What will happen when everything starts to fail? Will we try to repair what is irreparable? In that hopeless state of things, will we hop into airplanes or spaceships to move to another plot of land or planet? Will we rebuild everything in our new home? What will happen to our old one? Will it be the post-apocalyptic world portrayed in films of the past? Will it be a laboratory for military personnel to retrieve images of mushroom clouds? In the new world, will we use the same plans or make them better? Are we all Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? Are we the end product of our own creation? Did the psyche bring the cycle? Is this not the definition of insanity?
Are you ready? I'm just curious...
Ancient Rome's population peaked at around a million people. London in the 19th century was the first city to surpass that. According to the UN's data booklet, The World's Cities in 2018, the number of cities with at least 1 million inhabitants were 548. Tokyo was the most populous with more than 37 million people.
Consider the amount of structures and infrastructure (electrical and plumbing systems, etc.) built in a relatively short period of time. What will happen when everything starts to fail? Will we try to repair what is irreparable? In that hopeless state of things, will we hop into airplanes or spaceships to move to another plot of land or planet? Will we rebuild everything in our new home? What will happen to our old one? Will it be the post-apocalyptic world portrayed in films of the past? Will it be a laboratory for military personnel to retrieve images of mushroom clouds? In the new world, will we use the same plans or make them better? Are we all Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? Are we the end product of our own creation? Did the psyche bring the cycle? Is this not the definition of insanity?
Are you ready? I'm just curious...
RE: karma-dharma
It's simply not the end when everything begins to fail. Old buildings (and their infrastructure) will stagger on for decades provided their owners think there's value in maintaining them or if there's a ready enough supply of tenants willing to swap a lot of dilapidation for an almost-affordable rent. Buildings between those extremes get knocked down earlier. It's the breadth of this spectrum that spreads the burden of renewing old housing stock and which cushions the shock.
RE: karma-dharma
But, the issue isn't really an issue; not all of the infrastructure collapses at the same time, and we either find the money to rebuild, or we abandon and move elsewhere. It's not like we're living cheek to jowl EVERYWHERE; there's still plenty of space in the world. Additionally, most buildings will continue to survive, so long as there aren't natural disasters like earthquakes or tsunamis, etc. Roads are a different matter, since there's tons of wear and tear, and we've deferred the repairs on lots of roads, so we might need to do like Schwarzenegger and repair our local streets ourselves.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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RE: karma-dharma
--- Best regards, Morten Andersen
RE: karma-dharma
A product recall exemplifies systemic failure within a time frame. Large-scale urban projects are typically built in one go. Carbon copy bridges of yesteryear will show signs of distress simultaneously.
How many parts of structures and infrastructure are inaccessible? The materials are left to their nature and struggle with time.
MortenA, which one?
RE: karma-dharma
Not so much. Just because the design is the same doesn't mean a) they were built exactly the same b) maintained exactly the same or c) exposed to the same things.
Differences in loading will create differences in wear, different environmental factors (even micro-climate factors like how much sun hits the deck) will change the stresses and damage caused. A bridge of identical design in New Jersey and Georgia will probably not last as long in New Jersey if the maintenance is the same due to heavier use of de-icing salts. Two bridges in New Jersey a mile apart - one near a manufacturing plant and one serving a primarily residential area. The manufacturing plant will have significantly more truck traffic and greater wear. Two bridges a quarter mile apart with similar traffic but with a city border between them - one city invests in maintaining a bridge and the other doesn't. One will fail earlier than the other.
We had a huge building boom and, in many cases, a large period of neglect. That's absolutely true. And it's true that a lot of it will age into obsolescence in a shorter period than is comfortable. But your use of hyperbole does nothing to engage intelligent discussion on the topic. Post-apocalyptic films of the past? Really? The level of apathy required to end up there is a bit hard to imagine, even if many governments are increasingly unable to function properly.
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
Umm...what?
RE: karma-dharma
Buildings last a very long time when they are useful and people care for them.
Ancient Rome's problem is that they lost control of their empire, their military, and north Africa where all their food came from. The population dropped and they stopped caring for their buildings and infrastructure. Medieval Bagdhad's problem is that Hulagu Khan captured the place and killed everyone.
--
JHG
RE: karma-dharma
One big area of concern is the amount of civil infrastructure - streets, water, sanitary sewer and stormwater pipes, treatment plants, fire and police stations, schools, and so on - needed to support suburban lifestyles. Compare the revenue they generate to the maintenance costs. I strongly suspect the ratio will be less than one. How much longer will this be sustainable? Will we have to triage neighborhoods? If so, how?
This chart represents the change in infrastructure per capita in Lafayette, Louisiana before and after suburbanization. Yes, now we have more durable materials than clay pipe and tar-macadam, but it still shows an increased burden in infrastructure costs per household.
My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5
Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. - http://xkcd.com/319/
RE: karma-dharma
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
What maintenance are you referring to? There are lots of buildings in excess of 200 years old that probably haven't anyone maintain their foundations.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
We are already at the point where perfectly good buildings are destroyed because it is economically 'better' to build something different.
The failure of infrastructure is going full speed, bridges are falling down due to no maintenance, for example.
I think what will happen is that the infrastructure will need replacing and will consume a higher and higher portion of budgets, but everyone will simply carry on as if this is fine.
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
More recently, New York City's strategic plan has this: much of the city's infrastructure was built a century ago and has suffered from historic disinvestment, neglect, and poor maintenance. On average, our sewer mains are 85 years old, water mains are 70 years old, and the electric grid dates back to the 1920s.
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
We've moved on. We will move on again.
RE: karma-dharma
And, the comparison picture belies your complaint; older buildings didn't get abandoned, they were torn down to build more suitable buildings. Such is the way of life.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
I never said nor implied that an entire city would get torn down. Buildings get fixed or replaced.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
The protagonist below embodies the world of construction. If you think it should stop, you see an issue. That's all.
RE: karma-dharma
Did not phamENG provide his thoughts here? Asking for someones thoughts is the same as discussing it, you can't ask for a thought, disagree but then shut out the person before they can provide context to their thoughts - that is called American politics :P.
A good current case study for not maintaining a city and people leaving is Detroit, but since we aren't encouraged to have a discussion here, I'll let you go research it for yourself.
RE: karma-dharma
Why do you think it should stop? Aren't there an every increasing number of people in the world? Are they supposed to live and work on the streets without housing and workplaces?
And if someone moves from, say, San Francisco to Boise, are they supposed to live and work on the streets without housing and workplaces?
Or are you advocating not allowing for more kids and not allowing anyone to move to a different city?
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
Pardon my frequent use of images. Was it Wordsworth who said a picture is worth a thousand words? Take a good look at this metropolitan aerial. I say a picture is worth a thousand worlds.
RE: karma-dharma
I was intrigued to find out yesterday that engineering predates science: Building a Cathedral without Science or Mathematics: The Engineering Method Explained
My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5
Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. - http://xkcd.com/319/
RE: karma-dharma
You continue to make assertions with no point to them. What exactly is wrong in the image, and what do you think should be in its place?
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
What is this discussion about?
RE: karma-dharma
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: karma-dharma
I'm guessing the OP took a philosophical class recently or just wants to confuse us with random statements.
RE: karma-dharma
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Why yes, I do in fact have no idea what I'm talking about
RE: karma-dharma
Again, pointless; there is no historical precedence for that level population, and they have to live and work somewhere.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
Random is reporting and deleting my previous post because I called this thread entertaining. That's random.
RE: karma-dharma
I've seen a lot of examples of 'bad planning' as well as changes to planning schemes that have been modified over time. Toronto, for example put their airport 'in the middle of nowhere, and eventually allowed housing to be constructed in the area. Homeowners complained about the noise and now the airport is closed during the night time. There are lots of this type of example.
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
This deterioration curve is for pavement, but a lot of other infrastructure would be similar. Proper preventive and corrective maintenance will prolong the lifespans of most facilities. The keys are planning it and funding it so you can stay near the top of the curve for as long as possible.
Some funding sources have adverse incentives. They will fund rehab or reconstruction, but not preventive maintenance. For example, the Federal Highway Administration will pay for 80% of a bridge replacement project. Perhaps they should pay for bridge cleaning and painting instead. NY State distributes highway funding to municipalities, but insists it goes to projects with ten year minimum design lives. Preventive maintenance like surface treatments have the lowest lifetime cost, but need to be reapplied more often than that.
And that's why I would take a long look at any candidate that held a ribbon cutting for a crack sealing project.
My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5
Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. - http://xkcd.com/319/
RE: karma-dharma
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
You are seriously confused, as with most non-engineers; reliability is not a timer, it's a random event. Just like sinkholes do not appear everywhere all at once, unless you do something stupid; Buildings, even on the same block will have different characteristics, due to the design, construction, and environment conditions.
A good example is the SF Millennium Tower, which started leaning even before it was completed, while none of the surrounding buildings had this level of issue.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
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Why yes, I do in fact have no idea what I'm talking about
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
Also, the X axis should really be in the number of truck axles crossing it, but that's pretty hard for most people to visualize.
Actual life depends mostly on weather, amount of truck traffic, pavement design, drainage, subsoil type, etc. Like any engineered product, it's a balancing act between initial costs, maintenance costs, and user costs.
My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5
Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. - http://xkcd.com/319/
RE: karma-dharma
So, what, you don't cross either tunnel? Is the Holland Tunnel collapsed? What was the cause of the flood? Have there been no years with the same conditions as the year of the flood?
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
NY State's Department of Transportation published Highway Bridge Data for 2022. In NY City, 105 bridges were considered poor/structurally deficient. In total, 1 was from the 1850s; 8 were from the 1860s; 2 from the 1870s; 18 the 1880s; 12 the 1890s; 93 the 1900s; 61 the 1910s; 54 the 1920s; 207 the 1930s; 111 the 1940s; 221 the 1950s; 338 the 1960s; 75 the 1970s; 44 the 1980s; 45 the 1990s; 77 the 2000s; 83 the 2010s; and 23 since 2020. Note that there are more bridges from the 1900s than from any decade after the 1960s. There are 1,126 bridges that are over 53 years old. This represents 76.44% of all bridges.
NY City's Department of Transportation published Bridges and Tunnels Annual Condition Report annually until 2020. For some reason, 2021 and 2022 are not available. In 2020, it operated 799 bridges, 4 vehicular tunnels and 53 culverts. Using 4 condition ratings (poor, fair, good and very good), 386 structures were rated fair and correspond to 48.37% of all bridges. These also correspond to 60.82% of total deck area and 65.13% of all bridge spans. Not good. The report has this: during 2020, Manhattan had the highest percentage of bridge structures rated fair - 58.56% - as well as the lowest percentage of bridge structures rated good - 25.97%. Bridges included in this report are the Brooklyn (1883), Manhattan (1909), Williamsburg (1903), Queensboro (1909), High (1848), Broadway (1960), Grand Street (1902), Hell Gate (1917), Macombs Dam (1895), Madison Avenue (1910), Pulaski (1954), Rikers Island (1966) and Roosevelt Island (1955).
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority operates bridges and tunnels on the Metro-North Railroad, Long Island Railroad and subway systems in addition to 7 bridges and 2 tunnels. These are the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge (1964), Triborough Bridge (1936), Bronx-Whitestone Bridge (1939), Throgs Neck Bridge (1961), Henry Hudson Bridge (1936), Cross Bay Veterans Memorial Bridge (1970), Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges Memorial Bridge (1937), Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel (1950) and Queens-Midtown Tunnel (1940).
The Port Authority of NY and NJ operates the Holland Tunnel (1927), Lincoln Tunnel (1937), George Washington Bridge (1931), Bayonne Bridge (1931), Outerbridge Crossing (1928) and Goethals Bridge (1928). The latter (of Gotham City fame) in Elizabeth, NJ was replaced in 2017/18.
Additionally, the NYC Department of Parks and Recreation, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, and Amtrak operate other bridges and tunnels.
Some other examples are Carroll Street Bridge (1889), Spuyten Duyvil Bridge (1900), Pelham Bridge (1908), Borden Avenue Bridge (1908), Wards Island Bridge (1951), Park Avenue Bridge (1956), Arthur Kill Vertical Lift Bridge (1959), Alexander Hamilton Bridge (1963), Joralemon Street Tunnel (1908), Uptown and Downtown Hudson Tubes (1908/09), North River Tunnels (1910), East River Tunnels (1910), 60th Street Tunnel (1920), Park Avenue Tunnel (1834) and Viaduct (1919).
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
It's a fun read, for those so inclined. Actually it's way more fun in voice. Start your next Zoom meeting with this.
RE: karma-dharma
If a bridge is a bubble and bubbles burst,
you're asking for trouble if you build the first
and quadruple and double to quench your thirst;
you'll collect the rubble when first comes to worst.
That's my New Yo'k say.
RE: karma-dharma
By this argument, the Lincoln Tunnel should have collapsed by now as well, and yet, both are still functional. You cannot predict the exact time of a total failure; such is the nature of random events.
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
Since Sparweb beat me to quoting the One Horse Shay (did you first read it due to its reference in one of J. E. Gordon's books?), I will post pics from when they let the public (me included) walk through the Thames tunnel (2011). The original Thames tunnel started 1825 finished 1843, it was relined ~ 2010 (complete with historical arches and detail work left distinguishable) as part of the overground upgrades.
RE: karma-dharma
...as the pavement condition index above illustrates, there may be a price to do that. If left too long, the cost may be prohibitive, without proper maintenance.
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
A section of the NYC subway system collapses with or without a train underneath. Notified of the event, authorities scramble to stop all service, close the system and send a team of engineers to evaluate the safety conditions of the remaining tunnels scattered throughout the five boroughs. Urged to hasten their investigation, the experts haven't a clue as to how to go about assessing the structural integrity of the tubes. Meanwhile, chaos is widespread as millions of people are left without transportation. Urged further to conclude their findings, the investigators have 2 options; delay or make believe all is good at the risk of a future collapse. Needless to say, delay won't bring a risk-free conclusion.
This can happen in any one of the nearly 200 subway systems in the world, prompting other cities to do something (nothing) about it. Is this plausible or is it groundhog-wash?
RE: karma-dharma
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
With many types of construction, you can make periodic inspections to look for signs of distress. For some types of construction, there may be no advance warning of a potential collapse. There is a good chance the collapse may be brought about by other issues.
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
After introducing Holmes' poem, Gordon wrote the following:
The entire physical world is most properly regarded as a great energy system: an enormous marketplace in which one form of energy is for ever being traded for another form according to set rules and values. That which is energetically advantageous is that which will sooner or later happen. In one sense a structure is a device which exists in order to delay some event which is energetically favoured. It is energetically advantageous, for instance, for a weight to fall to the ground, for strain energy to be released - and so on. Sooner or later the weight will fall to the ground and the strain energy will be released; but it is the business of a structure to delay such events for a season, for a lifetime or for thousands of years. All structures will be broken or destroyed in the end - just as all people will die in the end. It is the purpose of medicine and engineering to postpone these occurrences for a decent interval.
Alas, the plan is Times Square becoming the Great Pyramid and vice versa and so on... Is this a photograph?
RE: karma-dharma
but monitor as best you can... and check for other signs such as water infiltration, etc. There are often indications that things are amiss before they happen... not always, but often.
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
So, what? Did you pay extra to ensure that that house you live in will last 1000 years? Are you paying for annual inspections of your house to ensure it won't collapse while you sleep?
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm
RE: karma-dharma
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: karma-dharma
RE: karma-dharma
You'd have a tough time convincing me of even that...
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
RE: karma-dharma
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Why yes, I do in fact have no idea what I'm talking about
RE: karma-dharma
Now...go!
RE: karma-dharma
A little math will do. If we build at the same rate since 2020, we'll build 77 bridges in the 2020s. This is in line with the number of bridges built in the 2000s and 2010s (more or less 80).
If we continue to build at the rate we've been building in this millennium and replace the highway bridges that are over 53 years old, we'll need 147 years to replace them all and we'd still have 347 bridges to replace which correspond to the 23.56% of bridges that were less than 53 years old when we started. At that point the first bridge we built to replace the 76.44% stock will be 147 years old.