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Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII
9

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Regarding the "will we have to make reductions" or not comments at the end of the previous thread.

What happens, economically when there is a scarcity of a product. What happened when whale blubber was made illegal back in the late 80's. You had a few rogue nations that violated this agreement / pact and continued to hunt whales for awhile.

What did others do? Well, the products that were made with whale blubber, soap, certain oils, hair conditioner, makeup products, et cetera. Well, what happened to these products? Did they cease to exist?

No they did not, rather they increased in cost for a short time. That increased cost meant that alternative sources were encouraged to be developed. Those places use either a petroleum based oil, vegetable oil. I remember a big selling point for JoJoba oil at the time. Jojoba oil is closer to a liquid wax than an oil and is made from the seeds of a particular shrub / plant found in the California / Mexico desert environment.

The same thing is happening now and will happen in the future. What we really are trying to do now is develop those alternatives so that the transition will be possible.

For power, we're already there. Nuclear, hydro, solar, wind and such cold (with the proper incentives) completely replace fossil fuels in the production of electricity. We just don't actually want to do this currently. But, if there were a scarcity of oil and gas, then we'd transition pretty fast.... however long it takes to build more nuclear plants.

For cars, planes, boats and other transportation, we're really not all that close. We're certainly getting more efficient. Hybrid technologies, electric vehicles, biodiesel, and such.

Honestly, when you look at how much food and such just rots in a dump I gotta think that (if there were genuine scarcity) we'd be able to recycle a lot of this waste into biodiesels. Or, maybe use it to ferment alcohol that we could use to power some transportation.

That being said, you can't really beat jet fuel for energy storage per kilogram. So, I don't really see jet planes moving off of fossil fuels anytime in the next few decades. Maybe we'll have to use a manufactured hydrogen or such like we do for rockets. But, that's got its own pretty severe drawbacks (i.e.... boom!).

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I should also point out that if / when scarcity of fossil fuels occurs one of the major changes will be in our choices. We'll bike more when we're traveling short distances alone. We'll take mass transit rather drive cross country. Flying would be a luxury reserved for the wealthy.

We'll find ways to get business done via zoom meeting and such rather than flying to Europe or such. We'll vacation closer to home. All kinds of things like this. You change your habits based on what's affordable.

In summary, the world (and humanity) will survive. But, that doesn't mean it won't be painful.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
The problem, Josh, is that we have no idea of where this will end up... somewhere between OK and ugly. Unfortunately, as I read things, once things start to move, it may not be possible to stop them.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Natural Gas = 38% of electricity production.
Nuclear = +9% (though California doesn't consider this to be 'clean')
Hydro = +10% (though California doesn't consider this to be clean or renewable for some crazy political reason)

From Josh's post in the previous thread.

Today's "green" designation of various energy sources seriously irks me. Hydro commonly isnt considered green/clean/renewable bc of a purported negative impact on marine ecology. In the northeast US we spent decades tearing out old water turbines that had produced power for decades with almost no maintenance and around which nature thrived. This was done to allow nature to "reclaim" watersheds which we damaged by removing the turbines. Those turbines also generated almost no landfill waste, unlike wind and solar. Similar in lunacy is declaring natural gas green/clean/etc while allowing comparatively lax standards for its hydrocarbons' emissions despite many climatologists declaring methane the worst of the greenhouse gases to allow to escape.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (CWB1)


From Josh's post in the previous thread.

Today's "green" designation of various energy sources seriously irks me. Hydro commonly isnt considered green/clean/renewable bc of a purported negative impact on marine ecology. In the northeast US we spent decades tearing out old water turbines that had produced power for decades with almost no maintenance and around which nature thrived. This was done to allow nature to "reclaim" watersheds which we damaged by removing the turbines. Those turbines also generated almost no landfill waste, unlike wind and solar. Similar in lunacy is declaring natural gas green/clean/etc while allowing comparatively lax standards for its hydrocarbons' emissions despite many climatologists declaring methane the worst of the greenhouse gases to allow to escape.
The off shore windmills are doing the same to marine life, that is a non issue, to the ones that wanted the dams destroyed.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Like it or not, the world may have to move away from fossil fuels because of their footprint. I know how or if this will happen.

My concern is that the extreme weather events of late (if you think they're extreme; there are a few that think this is normal) may just be the beginning of more extreme events in future. This might just be the beginning, and there may be a 'point of no return', and we may have already passed this. We have accoomplished things in decades that have taken millennia in the past. I just don't know... things could be rosey, but I don't think so.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

The problem, Josh, is that we have no idea of where this will end up... somewhere between OK and ugly. Unfortunately, as I read things, once things start to move, it may not be possible to stop them.

What does "where this will end up" actually mean? Are you talking about cataclysmic damage to the earth such that it will not be habitable for humans? That is highly, highly unlikely. I know that's what alarmists are pushing, but I just don't buy it.

It will be a little hotter. Some desert areas may be too hot to inhabit in the summer time. But, that's pretty much the way it is already. You just don't live there in the summer. Palm Springs, Vegas. The middle east, the Sahara.... etc. Those places may dry up and people will move away. But, most of the world will be affected only slightly.

Are we talking about dramatic rises in sea levels? Probably not. But, there will be a rise in sea levels. Will it be enough to send whole countries into the ocean? Almost certainly not. But, some beach front properties (currently owned by the elitists who say that we shouldn't be allowed to drive cars while they fly their private jets around the world) may get flooded out.

My point is that the most likely result is that there will be economic consequences. Cost of certain products goes up, cost of certain behaviors goes up. The world will adjust, people will innovate and make huge profits off of their innovations (just like they always have) and life will go on. Our economies will adjust and we'll keep on living and dominating this planet. Eventually, the excess CO2 will be absorbed by plant life and such and the temporary issues caused by our CO2 emissions will go away. This will probably occur over a much shorter period (100 or 200 years) than you might think. Worst case is it takes a thousand years. But, in the end our Global Warming blip will be no greater than the "ozone whole" crises that we dealt with in the 1980s.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (What does "where this will end up" actually mean? Are you talking about cataclysmic damage to the earth such that it will not be habitable for humans? That is highly, highly unlikely. I know that's what alarmists are pushing, but I just don't buy it.)


I have no idea... it could be OK, or it could get real ugly, when people are starving to death. The geopolitical changes could be massive. We just don't know where this is going... it may be totally new territory.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...another feature about climate change. Skies could be a lot more turbulent.

https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/climate-change-maki...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

I have no idea... it could be OK, or it could get real ugly, when people are starving to death.

I predict that plant growth (and food plan growth) will INCREASE globally when the temperatures increase. Maybe some specific areas will be hit hard. But, this will mostly only affect poor countries like the communist countries, the 3rd world and such.

It's pretty simple scientifically. Longer growing seasons, more CO2 to feed the plants. Are you anti-science? wink

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I sure hope you're correct, Josh... it's the aridification or desertification that may be a problem... it will be interesting when California has 45C weather... just a potential...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories did a study on California and determined that warming would cause an increase in precipitation. Are there any sources without a conflict of interest claiming aridification?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Do they want the amount of water that they've had lately... there may not be much to control the amount... There are just so many articles on aridification of the American West...

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2022-06-...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/10...

Tub, the latter article is very informative.



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Do they want the amount of water that they've had lately... there may not be much to control the amount... There are just so many articles on aridification of the American West...

We'd quickly figure out how to deal with it. Right? As long as there is an economic incentive to do so, we'll figure it out. That's generally how life and economics works.

We'll figure out how to deal with a wetter climate in certain areas. Maybe better flood control systems and such. Certain people in low lying area (i.e. flood planes) may have to move.

We'll figure it out with a more arid climate in certain areas. Heck.... LA and Southern California have barely any natural precipitation at all. Yet, LA is the 2nd largest metropolis in the US and we've found a way to support a population of 12.5 million people. If it gets more arid, then people may move towards the mountains and lakes or towards more mild weather at the coast (or both).

Heck, people may move to Northern California, Oregon, Washington or Alaska. But, that's just it.... we can move. We're very adaptable as a species. Even before technology, we had populations in the most extreme places imaginable. Middle of the Ocean (Hawaii and various islands). Middle of the desert (Saharan Africa, Arizona and such). Totally freezing conditions (Alaskan natives). Humanity finds a way.... even without modern technology and science. But, somehow Global warming is going to completely destroy us?!

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Our resident Chicken Little has no idea. He said so himself.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Remember Hokie... Chicken Little only has to be right, once.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

O, OK on that basis we don't need to collect any more data or do any more science. Because you can't make a rational decision based on that assumption. Chicken Littleites are an extreme example of the precautionary principle, discussed intelligently here

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC18527....

So you better get rid of your cell phone, there is a non zero chance it will cause cancer. And you better fit dry weather tires on a sunny day, and wet weather tires on a rainy day. And you better use slightly worn in tires than new ones or old ones.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It will be interesting to keep track of any changes... for the better, or for the worse. Realising, of course, that this is just a tiny 'blip' in geologic time...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

It's not a tiny blip! Sea levels have risen 400 feet in the last 14k years. Current observations and projections are slower than recent history. I don't understand the concern.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
The period of time is but a 'blip'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I don't understand what you're saying.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Generally items on a timeline are measured in time, not volume...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Plant growth is already up 30% due to the increase in CO2. Yields are at all time highs. Of course, that clashes with the “it’s all over!” school of thought, so we don’t hear much about it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

"Generally items on a timeline are measured in time, not volume..."

This doesn't make anything more clear.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tomfh)

Plant growth is already up 30% due to the increase in CO2. Yields are at all time highs. Of course, that clashes with the “it’s all over!” school of thought, so we don’t hear much about it.

Plant growth may be up but insect death is at an all-time high, too. Most like to blame pesticides but LED lighting has been shown to interrupt circadian rhythm of insects and is discussed as being the cause of the die-off. I removed all of the daylight temp fixtures from the outside of my house (inside, too).

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
New CO2 Levels...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carbon-dioxide-highes...

"Carbon dioxide levels are higher than they've been at any point in the last 3.6 million years" This is longer than the length of time, humans have been on earth. It may even be unhealthy:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fossil-fuel-air-pollu...



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

dik
Again not to worry Co2 has zero to do with the weather slash climate, as it is all caused by the winds aloft and high and low pressure areas.
The term "fossil fuel" is an invented term designed to affect a certain opinion, the correct nomenclature is "Mineral oil or fuel". Something that is fossilized is something that has turned solid, not into oil.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Invented or not... fossil fuel includes both oil, coal, and petroleum, and describes the source very well.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Invented or not... fossil fuel includes both oil, coal, and petroleum, and describes the source very well.

Oil is from minerals not from something that has no possible way to arrive at such depths, through hard rock and clay.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
They are all classified as fossil fuels...

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/...

"Feb 9, 2023Like coal and natural gas, petroleum was formed from the remains of ancient marine organisms, such as plants, algae, and bacteria. Over millions of years of intense heat and pressure, these organic remains (fossils) transformed into carbon-rich substances we rely on as raw materials for fuel and a wide variety of products."



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

They are all classified as fossil fuels...

You are wasting your time arguing with anything that dude says.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Thanks Swinny...

I know... it's for others that may not know and might be swayed by his comments.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Potential effects of Arctic warming:

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-arctic-extreme-winte...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Effect of temperature on dissolved oxygen in rivers:

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-temperature-stronger...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Regarding the artic warming, we have to remember that correlation does NOT equal causation. I think that's one of the major mistakes made by "alarmists". Especially since the research shows worse correlation with more extreme warming. This is the type of "messy" science that is genuine. Though the type of thing that is unlikely to gain much funding because it's not "sexy" enough.

The oxygen in River flow seems kinda like junk science to me. We know gases can dissolve in water. We know that effect changes with temperature. We can plot that effect. With colder temperatures resulting in the solvent being able to retain MORE solute. Plot those graphs. Study concluded for how this could be affected with higher vs lower temperatures. Not sure why they treat this as something so mysterious that they can't study it in a lab have have to completely rely on field readings. LOL.

Now, the flow is obvious as well, you agitate the water and you get more gas exposed to the water and more gas dissolves. Though that would be a function of temperature as well.

Not sure why light is supposed to be an important component. But,





RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...as the water warms, there is less dissolved oxygen. This can have an effect on aquatic life.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Sealevel rise:

https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-assessment-finds...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

If we average the last 14,000 years of sea level rise (well within the lifetime of modern humans) they would have experienced 20cm in 30 years. Your linked study indicates sea level rise has slowed, a lot. Why should we be worried?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Potential effects of Arctic warming:

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-arctic-extreme-winte...
I tried to read it, but I couldn't get past the first sentence without spewing my hot cocoa all over the keyboard:

Quote (Phys.org)

Pictures of melting glaciers and stranded polar bears on shrinking sea ice in the Arctic are perhaps the most striking images that have been used to highlights the effects of global warming.

Polar bears "stranded"? Give me a break! In case anyone is unaware, polar bears regularly swim up to 200 miles in the open ocean, and some have been known to swim all the way to Greenland (a 500 mile swim). Btw, the polar bear in the famous (or maybe infamous?) picture referenced was only about 200 yards offshore.

Sorry, when they start off with something that horrendously wrong, there's no reason to waste time on it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It's the loss of the sea ice and their manner of catching food that's the problem. They can swim incredible distances, for sure... but, it's tricky catching seals that way. Also, when they are malnourished, their reproduction rate suffers badly. They are at risk from climate change.

https://www.arcticwwf.org/wildlife/polar-bear/pola...

That's what they look like in the wild...



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

So... they look like polar bears?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scary...

"At the end of the last ice age, parts of an enormous ice sheet covering Eurasia retreated up to a startling 2,000 feet per day — more than the length of the Empire State Building, according to a study released Wednesday."

Hmmmm? No evil, man-made, capitalistic, environmental, greenhouse generating Homo sapiens with gas guzzling inventions, for comfort, travel, exploration and the betterment of mankind over 15,000 years ago???

Watch! The hand never leaves the wrist!

Skip,

glassesJust traded in my OLD subtlety...
for a NUance!tongue

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
... and they are not cute and cuddly... they are top of the food chain, up there, and everything is food to them.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

"CO2 has zero to do with the weather slash climate" ... I think this statement is just as wrong as "CO2 has everything to do with weather/climate change".

CO2 is (IMHO) one of the ways mankind is interacting (interrupting?) with global climate ... there's land use, waste heat, crops, species extinction, population, pollution, etc.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Yes, and when one talking point is obviously so bogus, the rest must be considered as dubious. What is the agenda, anyway? Just more money in the pockets of the 'scientists' and activists?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

If they have to use "experts say" as a debunk it's bogus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Blowing smoke?

I love that "fact check" by USA today. They dispute NOTHING about the posted graph of polar bear populations or the data that was presented, yet labeled it "false". LOL.

If you want to throw out the older data as "unreliable", fine. But, the graph still shows "reliable data" going back 30 years that shows a population growth. Maybe it's just that there is increased funding for polar bear population studies that help them better monitor "sub-populations" of polar bears. Okay. I will accept this counter point.

But, if this were a intellectually honest effort to "fact check" the facebook graph, it would have been labeled, "missing context" or "partly false". What they're really saying is, "This information is 100% correct, but you're too dumb to understand it".

The original Facebook post does an excellent job citing its sources. So, it is at least journalistically honest. It may be lacking important context. But, it's honest. Notice also, that nowhere in the "fact check" do they even mention the claim that a population resurgence could be related to the 1976 ban on Polar Bear hunting that Bjorn Lomborg claimed in his original post.

This is an excellent example of the dishonestly inherent in the "fact checker" industry.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

”…the most striking images that have been used to highlights the effects of global warming", completely ignoring that it was totally bogus

But it’s true. Those images have been perhaps the most striking images used to highlight the effects of global warming.

Once you realise this is how they talk, in misleading doublespeak, it all becomes a lot clearer.

The magazine industry is one of the worst culprits.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

never let truth get in the way of a good story (or picture).

what do you mean the lemmings were thrown off the cliff ??
But there is one myth that has held on tenaciously: Every few years, herds of lemmings commit mass suicide by jumping off seaside cliffs. Instinct, it is said, drives them to kill themselves whenever their population becomes unsustainably large.
Lemmings do not commit suicide.
But the biggest reason the myth endures? Deliberate fraud. For the 1958 Disney nature film White Wilderness, filmmakers eager for dramatic footage staged a lemming death plunge, pushing dozens of lemmings off a cliff while cameras were rolling.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Maybe you can get a job reporting weather for a TV station.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Thanks, Hokie, I don't need another job... I'm happy and busy with my current work.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect increased precipitation as temperatures warm up. If you have more heat, more water evaporates and goes into the air. It has to come down at some point. Right? More rain, more storms, more weather related events. I don't think any of that is a stretch if you accept the theory that the earth is warming.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
You're correct Josh, the problem is that we don't know how much this added precipitation will be. It could be a couple of springtime showers, or it could be something a lot different.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Just wait until someone correlates all of that extra precipitation with sea level rise.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
ICYC (in case you're curious)...

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Just wait until someone correlates all of that extra precipitation with sea level rise.)


Two somewhat independent issues, with the common causality of climate change.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Atmospheric moisture comes primarily from the oceans. A great deal precipitation occurs over land. Therefore, high rates of precipitation should lower the levels of the oceans. Isn't that a win? Rising sea levels are the worst thing ever, right?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Ya tug... On that reasoning, with 70% of the earth's surface covered by water, it would be interesting to see where, on land, the 6" drop in sea level will occur. I guess we'll have to wait and find out.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

When you grow the same crop on a field year in and year out in a field eventually the field starts losing productivity and becomes unhealthy.

Change is necessary. Ecosystems need to get mixed up every once in a while to thrive.

Example, San Francisco is an old and dirty city with deteriorating infrastructure. Is it best to keep bandaging? Or, let it become artificial reef and build a new SF 34 feet higher with the latest energy efficient buildings and loads of public transit?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
What they have done in past is to overdose it with fertilizer... using it year after year.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Yes, overdosing with fertilizer extended the viability of the field. However, it takes change to keep the field healthy.

Think about beaches. They're sandy, all of the nutrients have been washed away. Sea level rise exposes new land to the ocean to help bring new nutrients into the cycle. Rise is a good thing.

Sea level decline might be an issue though. Imagine all of that salty, briney mud being exposed. Lots of rot and methane production from that. Low tide stinks.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

predicted change in this century

Most of the sea level rise is predicted to be in the Arctic, most of the fall is around the Antarctic. This stuff is so easy to find out it just makes people who can't be bothered to look seem deliberately ignorant



Actual change so far since 1993



either way San Francisco seems safe.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Am I reading that right? A metre of rise around much of Australia since 1993? I doubt it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Yeah, I don't think the scale in the second graph is in meters. I would guess inches. Could be centimeters.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
another source...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sea-level-rise-us-coa...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Sorry, the caption didn't link

Regional sea level trends in millimeters per year from 1993 through mid-2018 with the global average rate removed. Red colors indicate that the local rate of sea level rise was greater than average, and blue colors indicate the opposite. Credit: PNAS.

Not quite as useful as this one, which doesn't remove the average rate.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

So, in the Australian parlance, ‘bugger all’.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Some humour...

https://thebulletin.org/2023/04/what-a-gas-how-ser...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (So, in the Australian parlance, ‘bugger all’.)


or in pommy, "bugger..."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

‘Bugger all’ means hardly any. ‘Bugger’ is what you should say when you are shown to be completely wrong.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Canada's greenhouse gas continues to rise

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-c...



on a positive note for generation of electricity it has dropped considerably... good for EV.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Hokie... yup, we knew that.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Pray for rain... careful what you wish for...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/us/tulare-lake-cali...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Natural changes. Humans must adapt, again and again.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Canada's greenhouse gas continues to rise

What, no blaming moose farts?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Nope... most of the increases are related to oil and gas... it looks like 'waste and others' have gone down. I was really impressed in the large reduction related to electricity. A lot of Canada's power is hydro.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Revegetation and climate change...

" And, as Sassan Saatchi, a senior scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, has said, tree planting will never be a substitute for decreasing fossil fuel emissions."

https://thebulletin.org/2023/04/how-plants-respond...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...a heads up. El nino may be coming on line:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
New info about fossil fuel producers:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/17/us/methane-oil-and-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Canadian government is full of hot air...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/topstories/emiss...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The only new info I see in that article, dik, is that a new study disputes the EPA's estimates of methane leakage, which the EPA still maintains are accurate. Oh, and a university has come up with a new technology to find leaks, so the oil drillers can fix them (which they do). So, as long as the university, and their resident eggheads, don't get too greedy, methane leaks should be decreasing in the future.

What's conspicuously missing in the article is any kind of quantitative assessment of whether the volume of methane leaks from US oil drilling are a significant factor in the greenhouse effect on a global scale.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I think so... I seem to recall seeing an article a few months back that had the global methane links. The real problem with methane is that it's about 30x worse than CO2.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It's not the link that I'd seen, but it's pretty good. I recall the earlier link was noting the new equipment to measure methane, globally. Some info from this link:

https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-emissions-from...






-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

New equipment? Does that introduce the same quality of date problems brought by Australia's modernization or thermometers?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

If the new equipment is more sensitive you can sure they’ll use it to their statistical advantage.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Any good statistical package would identify the change in equipment and would accommodate that. It's interesting comparing China to the US when they have 5x the population.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Well there is the obvious solution to climate change. Cut everybody's pay to pennies an hour and we will be low CO2 per capita just like China.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
We have no idea of how this will end up, Tug. China might surprise you...



They have improved the lot of the people, likely much better than the US has... The number of people that have improved is nearly twice the population of the US. I should have added a source.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/20...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Any good statistical package would identify the change in equipment and would accommodate that.

Any good climate scientist uses the data and the statistics available to them produce the clearest most compelling picture of climate change.

We saw it in climategate when dodgy selection of data and dodgy statistics were used to fashion the hockey stick. We see it with NOAA's gradually cooling of the past American climate. We see it in the Australian Bureaa of meteorology with their statistically cooling of the past, and their warming of the present via to changed instrumentation.

Climate scientists are on a mission to show warming, and when data is offered that appears to confirm it, they are often all too willing to accept it without sufficient scrutiny.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
A good stat package also identifies the manner in which the data is obtained and any possible variations. As this progresses, I suspect there will be a lot of snakeoil salesmen coming out of the woodwork, too. We could be in new territory and there could be a lot of uncertainty.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

What needs to be done to address climate change?

Education?

I would say that John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Gates are some of the most highly educated on climate change. They're also have the highest per capita emissions of any humans on Earth. Since they know so much about climate change it must be their income that leads to their CO2 output. To back this up, one could argue that Donald Trumps is very ignorant in climate change yet still has highest per capita CO2. Therefore, as China's per capita income increases so will their per capita CO2 output.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Therefore, as China's per capita income increases so will their per capita CO2 output.)


That's quite possible, Tug... and, maybe India's per capita will increase, too. Who's to deny them those excesses, if those with the ability to reduce theirs don't take up the cudgel? and set a good example. I haven't kept up with the increases, but I know that Canada has failed and our carbon footprint continues to grow, albeit not as quickly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Education?)


I think it's a failure of education and the lack of foresight by the government oligarchy that has placed us in this position. It will be interesting (in a Chinese curse fashion, to see where this leads. I'm not racist... and the Chinese curse, 'may you live in interesting times' is not really true... a Chinese friend told me the real curse was, "May your name be known to those in authority".)

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

So the oligarchy is going to use climate change in order to excuse the poor living conditions of the plebians while continuing with their extravagant lifestyles? Maybe it's time to stop supporting the oligarchy before they become totalitarian?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Unfortunately it's part of most governments...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Why do you support that position? The one where the oligarchy knows best?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Why do you support that position?)


It's easy... look up the definition of oligarchy and many governments fall into that category.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Okay?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Ghost forrests...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ghost-forests-chesape...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Is there any need for concern?

https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/04/21/el-nino-th...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

When the internet was beggining to catch universities used to publish their entire libraries for free. Microfilms were searchable. History was familiar. Today, everything is unprecedented because there is no history anymore.

Recently, it has been decided that it is dangerous for the general public to have access to free information.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Greg... how can a question be a lie? Maybe a statement can be one.

Tug... many of the sites I visit have CSV data available for free download.


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
concur... a bit of hyperbole... not the entire world, turned upside down... so, is there a need for concern?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

That is more than hyperbole. It is a concerted effort to spread a cultist philosophy by spreading untruths. When the unwashed buy the lies, the cultists make a lot of money.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (It is a concerted effort to spread a cultist philosophy by spreading untruths.)


https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/un-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
A different set of numbers; maybe not quite the same... it might be 'speeding up'.

"Rising seas is one of those climate change effects. Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another .13 inches (3.2 mm.) Research published in February 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to..."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/art...

"The global mean water level in the ocean rose by 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006–2015, which was 2.5 times the average rate of 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century. By the end of the century, global mean sea level is likely to rise at least one foot (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels, even if greenhouse gas emissions follow a relatively low pathway in coming decades."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understandin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Oooo...sea level could rise a foot over the next 80 years! The horror! The horror!
Given the rate of technological advancement, does anyone here seriously believe this would be a calamity? Of course, it's still assuming the trend of the last 50 years continues that long, which is nothing but speculation.

There's also the small matter of the satellite measurements diverging from the tide gauge measurements, which probably means the tide gauge measurements have some error. Looks to be about an inch over 20 years, with the tide gauge erring on the high side. If that's been consistent for awhile, the rise in sea level may only be a short term trend, since that is pretty much the entire rate of rise over the last century.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
For the earth, not heating up, that's a lot of ice.

"Just in time for Earth Day, a team of scientists funded by nasa and the European Space Agency has released the results of what might be thought of as the ice sheet’s latest checkup. The patient is not well. Over the past three decades, the researchers found, the rate of ice loss from Greenland has increased sevenfold. In one particularly warm year—2019—Greenland shed four hundred and forty-four billion tons of ice; these tons contained enough water to flood the entire state of California to a depth of three feet. Melt from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, too, the researchers found, has been accelerating; since the early nineteen-nineties, the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica has more than doubled. The new figures “are pretty disastrous really,” one of the scientists, Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute, told the Associated Press."

Water rise may be only one of a few issues to watch for. As it was noted earlier, people can relocate.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-heat...

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/04/22/dont-go-out-...

54C, that's a little toasty and may not be the 'upper end'. It will be interesting to see if California can match that... but they have air coditioners... or do they have the power to drive them? All sorts of potential issues.


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

"Funded by". That's the key. They are paid to make headlines.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
They are funded by the governments around the world, and peer reviewed by scientists paid for governments around the world. Makes sense that there is little action being undertaken by the governments around the world. Businesses, milking this cow, are free enterprise companies... meanwhile, the earth continues to heat up.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

“Funded by governments…and peer reviewed”

This is meant to reassure us?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Not us. We know a scam when we see it, but millions don't.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Depends... we'll have to see how things turn out... like a marriage, for better or for worse.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Yes, the "we'll see" approach is the safest. Any attempt to prevent or reverse climate change will be catastrophic to both the environment and the human race.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
and it may be catastrohpic if nothing is done... The longer we do nothing, the worse it may get, until there is no way to reverse it. We'll have to wait and see what happens. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Please, wait and see. The only path to catastrophe is trying to do something.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I don't agree... by doing nothing, it may make matters a lot worse.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugboatEng)

Please, wait and see. The only path to catastrophe is trying to do something.

The logic behind this is absolutely wild. This is like seeing a train coming from 30 miles away and deciding you'll just park on the tracks anyway.

Consequences being far in the future is not a reason to do nothing.

I don't share Dik's sensationalist views about potential short term consequences of the current climate change trend - but it's an incontrovertible fact that fossils fuels have a finite life. Saying we should just sit on our hands is obtuse thinking of the highest degree.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (I don't share Dik's sensationalist views)


When you think of the potential consequences, they are not sensational.

Quote (This is like seeing a train coming from 30 miles away and deciding you'll just park on the tracks anyway.)


...and the train is still coming, and the consequences, if they happen, may be delayed by a few decades/centuries. Just a 'blip' in geologic time.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

they are not sensational

I respectfully disagree.

Your posts in this thread and others appear to indicate that you believe the worst possible scenario to be not just a possibility, but an abject certainty.

Tug's posts indicate the opposite extreme - that everything is fine, scientific claims that human activity has any impact on long term climate are categorically wrong, and we should just stick our heads in the sand.

My personal opinion that neither of you are taking anything resembling a rational approach to evaluating the information we have available to us. You're both sensationalizing the issue, from opposite ends of the political spectrum. The truth, as is almost always the case in issues like this that are heavily politicized, lives in a much more nuanced position somewhere in the middle.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I'm generally pretty positive, but with climate change things could be real ugly. I'll be long gone when it happens...

When we were in grade school, we learned that dinosaurs went extinct because they only had a small brain. They managed to survive for hundreds of million years. The human race may not be that fortunate, albeit having a 'larger' brain. I don't know what is going to happen, but we may be on our way to it. Humans are as pernicious as cockroaches, so all may not be lost. Part of the problem may include civil unrest and geopolitical changes, I don't know... but, I've seen how a little Covid has affected society; imagine if things get worse.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

2

Quote:

it's an incontrovertible fact that fossils fuels have a finite life. Saying we should just sit on our hands is obtuse thinking of the highest degree.

Not really. We have more oil reserves than at any point in history. More importantly, so what if we didnt? Without the eco-concerns there's no justification for govt to be interfering in many of the markets which they currently do. Scarcity and demand drive market changes, no need for govt to do so. And given the fact that any govt action costs major dollars and allows potential corruption, there is good reason to demand govt sit on their hands.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (CWB1)

We have more oil reserves than at any point in history.

And higher consumption than any point in history, too - and that consumption is on a rapid upward trajectory, as it has been since the industrial revolution.

I'm definitely not a 'peak oil' whistleblower... but assuming that fossil fuel reserves are infinite is ignoring reality.

If we stopped discovering new oil reserves (and stopped exploring technology to extract oil from sources that aren't currently economically viable today) right now, in 50 years we would have zero. 50 years is not out of range for the lifetime of many, maybe the majority, on this forum - including me.

So yes, we'll keep finding more oil and as costs go up due to scarcity, currently known unviable sources will become viable. But the timelines we are talking about aren't a millenia away. On the time scale for which government should be making decisions, they're on the radar.

I have no great love for our government or any other national government - but you can't rely on private companies to move the technology forward. They don't care; oil costs going up are good for them. The governments of world economic powers - the US, the EU, China, Russia, etc - are the only entities with the financial resources and the long term duty to attempt to underwrite alternatives. It's the least of the several evils available to us.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

The logic behind this is absolutely wild. This is like seeing a train coming from 30 miles away and deciding you'll just park on the tracks anyway.

It's the logical response to the decarbonize at all costs even if it means increasing CO2 output side.

Tearing down and rebuilding 200 years worth of fossil fuels based infrastructure in 50 years using the 200 year old fossil fuel based infrastructure to do it seems so very illogical.

Until someone starts putting out real data on the carbon cost of decarbonization, it's probably safest to continue doing what we are doing

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tug)

It's the logical response to the decarbonize at all costs even if it means increasing CO2 output side.

It might be, but no one is saying that... you're saying that they're saying it so you can justify your own argument in favor of doing nothing.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

you can't rely on private companies to move the technology forward. They don't care; oil costs going up are good for them.

Why not? As the prices go up, the oil companies will have to adapt, with more efficient/economical extraction techniques, or by branching out into other, cheaper, sources of energy. If not, they will go out of business, as other energy sources become relatively cheaper. IOW, the consumer will drive the technology forward; the market will shift when scarity prices oil and other fossil fuels out of contention. It will happen naturally; no premature, heavy-handed government interference necessary.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

It will happen naturally

Any speed bumps in this plan are absorbed by society at large. If the major oil companies were smart, they would be working to bring these technologies to maturity sooner, rather than attempting to stifle them- which is what they do now.

Why you think all of these capitalistic entities are going to suddenly become altruistic in the 11th hour a few decades from now is beyond me.

I'm heavily in favor of the free market generally - but there are times where the free market works against the public best interest, and it's in those times that the government has a duty to step in. This is one of those times.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I don't think we should do nothing. I think our current approach with hard deadlines for decarbonization is worse than doing nothing.

For example, we could be phasing out conventional powerplants in favor of combined cycle. I can stand behind that. But building massive battery banks with no energy source to charge them seems like a step in the wrong direction.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It's not working with hard deadlines, either. Nobody is following them. Nearly everyone has failed with the Paris accord, and haven't come close. If you don't have 'real' hard deadlines, no one will do anything if left up to themselves.

...and like Covid, what's a million or two fatalities, anyway?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tug)

But building massive battery banks with no energy source to charge them seems like a step in the wrong direction.

Here in Australia we’re busy shutting down our coal generators, which are being “replaced” with “clean” batteries.

“Replacing” 2500MW continuous power sources with 700MW batteries that last for about 90 minutes…. No one has explained how any of this is supposed to work.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I think we will only find out when the lights go out.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Yup, in about 2027 persistent outages and increasingly expensive electricity will give one party or the other a chance to seize the initiative and propose a realistic (and probably taxpayer funded) energy policy. At the moment the energy companies aren't doing maintenance on their coal plants, so they are increasingly unreliable and being pulled out of service even earlier than scheduled. It's no skin off their nose, when the renewables are running the market price for power is close to zero (as I speak, 2c /kWh), or even negative, so it isn't worth running the coal generators , and of course when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing across the entire country then they make a fortune running gas peakers/batteries at anything up to $15/kWh.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Why you think all of these capitalistic entities are going to suddenly become altruistic in the 11th hour a few decades from now is beyond me.

It's not altruism, it's capitalism, i.e., when fossil fuels become scarce, they become expensive, and are replaced by less expensive alternatives. Artificially increasing the price, through onerous regulations, or artificially creating scarcity, by banning the use of certain energy sources, just makes all energy more expensive, and costs tax money to enforce the regulations and bans.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Australian politicians are the worst of all. The continent has plentiful supplies of coal and gas, but will soon have no power plants to use it. Plenty of uranium, but not the political will to use it. No automobile manufacturing, so totally dependent on imports. No or little manufacturing capability for solar, battery, wind...so all that stuff is imported as well. Without China, we are sunk. With China, we are sunk.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

in 50 years we would have zero

That claim has been around since the 19th century, always just a couple decades away yet here we are. Personally I'd rather govt address real issues that exist today rather than go looking for ones that may exist some day. Its not like we're trillions in the red with crumbling infrastructure or other pressing issues.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (hokie66)

Australian politicians are the worst of all. The continent has plentiful supplies of coal and gas, but will soon have no power plants to use it. Plenty of uranium, but not the political will to use it.

We get the politicians we deserve. The public has bought into the prevailing climate dogma, and politicians follow that lead. If the clear majority of the public said priority 1 (ahead of being a climate goodie two shoes) is energy security, we would see a different scenario. I suspect we need to hit the wall before people start to wake up.

Quote (Greg)

Yup, in about 2027 persistent outages and increasingly expensive electricity will give one party or the other a chance to seize the initiative and propose a realistic (and probably taxpayer funded) energy policy.

What sort of policy would be an option in your view, assuming we'd come to a real crunch?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

That's where the pessimism comes in. If we ever get to a "real crunch" the money will be gone and there will be nothing left to get the old infrastructure going again. Policy won't be of any help.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Tomfh- I looked at it in this thread. https://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=492616

Basically, even an expensive ($10B/GW) nuclear reactor is cheaper at supplying baseload power than renewables+battery storage. The quoted price for SMRs are a lot less than expensive nuclear (about half), but of course, the usual FUD is being spread around. If you have to go non nuclear then using natural gas peakers is cheaper than batteries and the massive overbuild of renewables and transmission lines that is needed for a solar/wind/storage system. I haven't worked out exactly what mix of natural gas, wind and solar and short term storage is cheapest, but I see no sign, ever, that offshore wind makes sense, it always costs a lot and its output correlates strongly with that of nearby onshore wind. Unfortunately due to several rather daft policies natural gas is, and will be, in short supply on the eastern seaboard, so a change is needed there as well.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (CWB1)

That claim has been around since the 19th century

I very much appreciate it when people parse a phrase out of context to reinforce a claim I never made. Thanks.

Quote (TugBoatEng)

If we ever get to a "real crunch" the money will be gone and there will be nothing left to get the old infrastructure going again. Policy won't be of any help.

Uhhhhh yeah. So, you do get it. That's a different phrasing of the exact same idea I just typed one post ago.

Quote (TugBoatEng)

I think our current approach with hard deadlines for decarbonization is worse than doing nothing.

No one actually thinks the 'deadlines' (they aren't really, but I'm quite sure you only read the bold headlines based on your opinions) are realistic - but in order to change the entire energy economy, aggressive goals must be set.

A fundamental change in the way humans extract energy from their environment must happen eventually - we can argue about whether it needs to be in the next century or the next millennia, but it's an absolute certainty.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Not a headline. California has banned the sale of gas powered cars in state starting in 2035.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-...

That's a deadline, not a headline. It's going to require substantial carbon investment in order to achieve. By executive order, too.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (A fundamental change in the way humans extract energy from their environment must happen eventually...)


Not only how they extract it, but how they use it. There could be big changes coming up, like it or not.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Not a headline. California has banned the sale of gas powered cars in state starting in 2035.

No one, including the executive who issued that order, actually thinks that's going to happen.

It's an aggressive goal in an attempt to drive the adoption of new technology the 'right' direction.

This thinking you're espousing makes me think you've never raised children or done anything difficult in your entire life.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

So what is going to happen? Are auto manufacturers just going to ignore the law?

Espousing? I have to listen to radio commercials daily telling me not to use my washing machine during the hours I'm normally home and awake. We nearly exceeded the grid capacity during last summer. Many green initiatives such as cold ironing ships in port have to be suspended when California's demand gets high. California is about to turn off 9% of its generation capacity in 2 years. California has no new generation projects in the pipeline.

It's not an aggressive goal. It's regressive.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugboatEng)

So what is going to happen? Are auto manufacturers just going to ignore the law?

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

We both know that you know that.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (I have to listen to radio commercials daily telling me not to use my washing machine during the hours I'm normally home and awake.)


Do you really think that will improve with time?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.)


That might depend on how things are in 2035...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The only thing that's going to change by 2035 is that used gas cars will be too expensive for the people that can't afford electric cars.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

Yup. Just look what happened in Denmark. The government started implementing farming legislation to curb emissions that would have destroyed the farming industry. Nothing motivates someone to vote like a threat to their livelihood. Now, one election later, a new pro-farming party is the MAJORITY in their legislature. LOL.

The same thing will happen here in California if they really try to ban gas powered cars. Legislation like this is just "virtue signaling" from the legislature and the governor. But, as soon as it becomes politically expedient to do so, they will 100% flip and claim they never supported such draconian legislation.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

"That might depend on how things are in 2035 ..." ... no, it will depend on how things are in 2035.

If (in the world of rainbows and unicorns) we've made a seamless transition to electric cars then gas powered cars will be banned. And presumably gas powered cars will be shipped off to the 3rd world, or scrap yards will get really busy (or just possibly, people will figure out how to convert them, efficiently, to EVs).

If in the world we anticipate, then the law will get changed, maybe to 2050, maybe never.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
In the coming years... there will likely be a few 'slip ups'. We're in new territory, perhaps.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Electric cars and fossil fuel power are not going to solve much...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

And you're ok with this?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Oceans warming, too...

"This month, the global sea surface hit a new record high temperature. It has never warmed this much, this quickly.
Scientists don't fully understand why this has happened.

But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world's temperature could reach a concerning new level by the end of next year.
Experts believe that a strong El Niño weather event - a weather system that heats the ocean - will also set in over the next months.

Warmer oceans can kill off marine life, lead to more extreme weather and raise sea levels. They are also less efficient at absorbing planet-warming greenhouse gases."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

Experts believe that a strong El Niño weather event - a weather system that heats the ocean - will also set in over the next months.

That's a reasonable, but probably overly simplistic summary.

What I mean by that, is El Niño is related to warming in a specific area of the pacific ocean at specific time of the year that has been associated with certain weather events affecting many countries around the Pacific ocean. My belief is that it's not necessarily associated with increased ocean temperatures overall. But, specifically related to ocean currents that can effect where those warm tropical waters are taken. In California, it is associated with more rain than would normally occur. Around Equador and Peru, it might be more extreme storms. In Alaska, it's associated with a drier winter than normal. I believe (though I'm not certain) it's supposed to also be drier in Hawaii, Polynesia and Australia.

I mention this because, I'm not sure that there the El Nino weather events are related to global warming. I haven't read anything definitive on the subject, but it does seem reasonable to assume that El Nino years would likely increase with an overall increase in overall ocean temperatures.

Note:
This past winter (while one of the wettest years for California in decades) was NOT considered an El Niño year. But, it sounds like the coming one might be....

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
We'll have to wait and see how this plays out...

"“We have to think climate change will influence El Niño in some way and will impact its impacts,” said Goddard. “But how El Niño events themselves change because of global warming? It’s hard to say, and harder to observe because there is so much variation in El Niño by itself from decade to decade. It’s a tough question to answer.”"

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

The politicos say the same thing about every emissions reg, usually while vomiting buzzwords like "industry partners." When the glad-handing stops they dont care if the required technology is expensive, unreliable, or limited-production bc that's the OE and customer's problem, not theirs.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

And you're ok with this?

In the same way that you're ok with acting like the problem doesn't exist.

Quote (CWB1)

The politicos say the same thing about every emissions reg, usually while vomiting buzzwords like "industry partners." When the glad-handing stops they dont care if the required technology is expensive, unreliable, or limited-production bc that's the OE and customer's problem, not theirs.

....and your point is?

The entire function of setting difficult goals like this is to drive innovation. That may not be the intended purpose in the minds of the lawmakers, but it's the end result - and in the long term it's net positive.

I'm quite sure that if there had been internet forums in the 70s, trolls like Tug would've been bitching and moaning to no end about the end of leaded gas. That was a government regulation passed against the best interest of the market but for the best interest of the public; it made cars more complicated and more expensive to make, and forced oil companies to change their entire product. In the end, the benefits to society far outweighed the negative short term economic impact.

This is a similar situation.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

The entire function of setting difficult goals like this is to drive innovation.

So, when it comes to climate policy, laws = goals = useless virtue signaling. Good to know.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Excellent reading comprehension.

You don't have to understand, the world will move on without you.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

In the same way that you're ok with acting like the problem doesn't exist.

Excellent reading comprehension.

I said rapid decarbonization is going to increase our carbon footprint. That's worse than doing nothing at all!

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

The entire function of setting difficult goals like this is to drive innovation. That may not be the intended purpose in the minds of the lawmakers, but it's the end result - and in the long term it's net positive.

That's a really good point. I remember when the first bit of this type of legislation was done in California in the 1990s. Like where they required a certain percentage of cars (2%?) be zero emission cars. The legislation was kinda crazy because it just wasn't practical and it was repealed not long after. But, GM had developed the EV1. It was very innovative with energy capture breaks, very low friction styling, light weight.... anything they could do to extend the range just a little.

Now, one could also argue that the legislation was written in a way that stifled other innovation. Once the market demanded high MPG cars, that led to the Hybrid cars like the Prius that were much more impactful (from a market share standpoint). Though you have to admit that the Prius used a lot of the same innovations that were developed originally by GM for the EV1.

Personally, I think that the legislators who do this type of laws are well intentioned idiots. But, some good came occasionally come from their aspirational idiocy. Then again how is California's "Bullet Train" going? :)

If we really wanted to use legislation to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles, then I think we could do exactly that. All we have to do is add a progressive sales tax against cars that have low gas mileage. And, a progressive tax break on the purchase of cars that have gas mileage above a certain point. Oh, and you could "ramp up" the tax over a course of 10 years so that we would have a much more "gentle" transition in our economy.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

I said rapid decarbonization is going to increase our carbon footprint. That's worse than doing nothing at all!

Yeah, and you were wrong about that.

The long term is what matters.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

whether we should use electric cars (or should want to) is a different discussion (see other never-ending threads).

but we have 400km electric cars now because of R&D and improvement of earlier designs.

to have electric cars as an option for gas powered is IMHO a sensible market choice. People can choose electric because either (or both) ....
1) they want to save the world from CO2, or
2) gas is too expensive and electric is (given it's limitations) still a reasonable option.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TubBoatEng)

I said rapid decarbonization is going to increase our carbon footprint. That's worse than doing nothing at all!

I would say it a different way. We want to use our current resources "efficiently" when it comes to decarbonization. Meaning we want to get the most reduction in CO2 emissions per dollar invested in the project.

That's why paying rich people to virtue signal to their friends (by subsidizing their electric cars and rooftop solar units) is probably not a very efficient way to do decarbonize our economy.

Replacing Coal powered plants with nuclear power would be a great way. Honestly, smaller scale nuclear plants would probably be a lot more cost effective (and environmentally friendly) than wind farms.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
This could have far reaching consequences... including an impact on our 'disposable' outlook... things may have to last for years, rather than to end of warranty. Things may have to be repairable.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Emissions rules are forcing me to replace engines in my boats so frequently I'm having to change them out before the warranty experies. Engines that would normally last 30 years are being phased out after 5 years. We recently went from EPA Tier 2 to Tier 3. To go to Tier 4 I will have to replace the brand new Tier 3 engines which are completely identical to the Tier 4. On this engine family Tier 4 is achieved entirely through aftertreatment. The regulatory bodies are stingy about certifying retrofits. The icing on the cake is that there is no DPF included with the Tier 4 package currently and a regulating body is going to require it in 2 years. That likely means another repower.

On top of that, my engines are light loaded. They operate at a 15% lifetime load factor. This means I'm going to have to routinely load bank generators and push on stationary objects to burn fuel to keep the SCRs functioning.

How does any of this make any sense? There needs to be some study of the cost/benefit.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

This could have far reaching consequences... including an impact on our 'disposable' outlook... things may have to last for years, rather than to end of warranty. Things may have to be repairable.

Exactly. I think one of benefits that fossil fuels have now is how established the technology is. The maintenance costs per MegaWatt of power produced is very, very low. Granted, hydro electric is probably even lower.

Solar and wind require a lot of maintenance in comparison.

It's interesting that for cars it's actually the opposite (or should be). Electric cars have a lot less complex parts. Electric motors are a lot simpler than an internal combustion engine and everything that has to support it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
You can bank on it...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-b...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I don't understand. Can you clarify the relevance? How is a bank trying to legislate guaranteed income a sign of climate change?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I dunno... it would be real interesting to see how they and insurance companies are dealing with this... doncha think...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

'I dunno'
'Dontcha think'
your little smoking emoji


None of these are helping change the impression that you're taking an extreme view. If you want to make an argument, make an argument...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Sorry Swinny... I was just wondering what other agencies whose future may depend on climate change issues are doing... I think it's a valid question.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

They're busy printing stories for you to post. Stoking fear so people blindly hand them money.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I think it is very valid to ask about insurance companies (and what premiums they're charging).

Drawing conclusions from this is less straight forward. Have premiums increased because weather related costs have gone up ? Have premiums increased because of a presumption that charges will go up (and the market is willing to go along) ? Critically, are some companies charging more for weather insurance (all other things the same ... like in the same place and same time) than others ? (then you'd expect, if you were Adam Smith, that the cheaper companies would get the business, and the market would converge on the cheaper prices. but in the real world, insurance prices always go up !?)

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
concur... I just wonder if they are doing anything. Unfortunately tug, the stories they are printing are becoming everyday events.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I'm with dik.... I think article about real companies "risk management" strategies are much more interesting than government or pseudo government talking heads.

When we see companies genuinely making economic decisions based on climate change that will be when things change. Meaning, when insurance rates for coast communities go way up (because of potential flooding / sea rise). When companies start moving manufacturing facilities to "safer" locations or such. This are people (and companies) putting their money where their mouths are. That's how you know they 100% believe it.

That's so much more interesting than a war of words between environmentalists and global warming deniers.

Say what you like about Greta Thundberg, but she lives her life in a way where it's clear she genuinely believes what she's saying. Al Gore, John Kerry, Leonardo DeCaprio.... Not so much. They aren't willing to give up their luxury lifestyles even a little. However, they are pretty insistent that the rest of us must give up our not so luxury lifestyles right now.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Say what you like about Greta Thundberg, but she lives her life in a way where it's clear she genuinely believes what she's saying. Al Gore, John Kerry, Leonardo DeCaprio.... Not so much. They aren't willing to give up their luxury lifestyles even a little. However, they are pretty insistent that the rest of us must give up our not so luxury lifestyles right now.

Some would say that's because Thundberg is just a useful pawn who doesn't really know anything, other than what her parents and handlers have told her to say. Of course DiCaprio is probably one of those useful(?) idiots, as well. Gore and Kerry are making millions off of this, so besides their obvious personal lifestyle hypocrisy, there's also a huge financial incentive for them to espouse the view that this is a crisis requiring continuing and expanded intervention.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Thundberg is just a useful pawn who doesn't really know anything, other than what her parents and handlers have told her to say.)


I don't think that's the case. I think she was instrumental in starting a concern for some real potential problems, without her parents assistance. I don't think she had handlers; initially she was not political. She had to become political because the issue is not being handled well, because it has become political. Her recent book is a great read... I wouldn't sell her short on her knowledge.

She is more active than the others mentioned because the others mentioned are on their way out (dying off) and she has a whole lifetime before her.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I respect Thundberg mostly because she believes what she's selling. Her arguments (that I've seen / read) are entirely based on emotion. Therefore, it has little effect on me.

Now, I do think she's a hypocrite, just an honest one who believes what she's saying and is willing to make personal sacrifices because of it.


FWIW, her hypocritical stance (IMO) was protesting wind mills in Norway because they were build on indigenous land. So, to use her language.... "How dare you? This land can make a huge reduction in carbon emissions in our power generation. How dare you sacrifice our future just to accommodate some livestock grazing rights. This is the World War of our generation. Wake up and choose the right side before it's too late."

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Being non-technical (originally a teenager) she's basing her comments on observations. There have been a few climate related events in the last few years. There can be some other issues related to 'going green'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

When I base my comments on observations I get called mean things like a denier or anti-science.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Being non-technical (originally a teenager) she's basing her comments on observations.

Or the propaganda she's been fed...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

There have been a few climate related events in the last few years.

You mean, "weather events"..... LOL.

I'm just teasing a little. It's a pet peeve of mine when people want to tie in any particular storm, hurricane, drought, or flood to global warming. If you want to say that this is global warming then you need demonstrate it with statistics. How many weather events per season on average, standard deviation based on the data we have. Then demonstrate how the number (or severity) is outside the standard deviation. Otherwise, you're just guessing.

Now, it's fine to suggest that global warming may lead to more of these types of storms than we've seen in typical years. But, don't pretend that this is conclusively tied to climate change when virtually ZERO actual scientists are saying this.... only activists and politicians.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

If you read the IPCC reports they even assign a confidence to their predictions. From memory precipitation predictions have a low confidence, and as we know, the frequency of big hurricanes has not increased. 'attribution science' is a religion, not science.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

It's a pet peeve of mine when people want to tie in any particular storm, hurricane, drought, or flood to global warming

Yep. Every single one is now attributed to climate change, on the basis that extreme weather is hypothesized to be consistent with climate change.

There's no statistical increase in extreme events as of yet. But people (including engineers who should know better) happily blame every storm on the climate boogie man.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
More summer weather... it could get worse in the coming years.

https://euroweeklynews.com/news/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

“Could”

“May”

“Potentially”

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
just a caution...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

just a caution...

Some would call it speculation and guesswork.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

When I base my comments on observations I get called mean things like a denier or anti-science.

That's because your knowingly 'select' your observations such that they support your political perspective.

So does Dik. You are opposite sides of the same coin.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
or a potential 'real' problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
concurr Swinny... The main difference is, that I hope I'm wrong. Another really big difference is that my perspective is not political. None of the political parties are addressing this... even the green party in Canada. By making it political, it's a red herring to avoid addressing what could be a serious problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...more ocean stuff:

"Since this record-keeping began in the early 1980s—the other squiggly lines are previous years—the global average for the world’s ocean surfaces has oscillated seasonally between 19.7 and 21 degrees Celsius (67.5 and 69.8 Fahrenheit). Toward the end of March, the average shot above the 21-degree mark and stayed there for a month. (The most recent reading, for April 26, was just a hair under 21 degrees.) This temperature spike is not just unprecedented, but extreme."



https://www.wired.com/story/an-ominous-heating-eve...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

In other news there's an El Nino. Funny to be talking about global average and then showing graphs for the bit in the middle (60N to 60S) only. I wonder if they are hiding anything? Oh yes, the Antarctic Ocean is cooling.




Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Oh yes, the Antarctic Ocean is cooling.)


Maybe, at least not warming up yet...

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-cha...

"Warmer air and ocean temperatures are generally expected to reduce the amount of sea ice present worldwide. While warming has already driven a noticeable decline in sea ice in the Arctic, extent in the Antarctic as a whole has not yet declined, which may reflect influences of wind patterns, ocean currents, and precipitation around the continent."

"The abyssal ocean circulation is a key component of the global meridional overturning circulation, cycling heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients throughout the world ocean1,2. The strongest historical trend observed in the abyssal ocean is warming at high southern latitudes2,3,4, yet it is unclear what processes have driven this warming, and whether this warming is linked to a slowdown in the ocean’s overturning circulation. Furthermore, attributing change to specific drivers is difficult owing to limited measurements, and because coupled climate models exhibit biases in the region5,6,7. In addition, future change remains uncertain, with the latest coordinated climate model projections not accounting for dynamic ice-sheet melt. Here we use a transient forced high-resolution coupled ocean–sea-ice model to show that under a high-emissions scenario, abyssal warming is set to accelerate over the next 30 years. We find that meltwater input around Antarctica drives a contraction of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), opening a pathway that allows warm Circumpolar Deep Water greater access to the continental shelf. The reduction in AABW formation results in warming and ageing of the abyssal ocean, consistent with recent measurements. In contrast, projected wind and thermal forcing has little impact on the properties, age and volume of AABW. These results highlight the critical importance of Antarctic meltwater in setting the abyssal ocean overturning, with implications for global ocean biogeochemistry and climate that could last for centuries."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01610-x

https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/article/antarctica-l...

and with the loss of sea ice, I suspect something is warming up.

https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/31/antarctic-...

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-antarctic-sea-ice-lo...

It seems to be warming all over, maybe a little slower in antarcticia.


and the effect on currents:

https://www.dw.com/en/deep-ocean-currents-around-a...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Nope... and they aren't either. Part of the rise in sealevel is a consequence of ocean heating... not just the top 1mm.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming...

It's that huge amount of energy input that has me a little curious/concerned.

Look up AMOC, which I mentioned earlier... pipe

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/01/02/clima...


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

dik

I know you say you're not political. But, you have a definite stance on a political issue. That's all that Skinny was saying.

It's like me saying that I'm adamantly pro-choice, but that it's not about politics for me.... Well, the abortion issue is extremely political, so politics comes into play in my stance. Even if I weren't cheering for Democrats or Republicans.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It's become political to detract from a real problem. With me, it was never a political issue.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

It's like me saying that I'm adamantly pro-choice, but that it's not about politics for me..

Yup. It’s like when you hear politicians accusing the other side of “playing politics”, as if they’re not doing exactly the same thing.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
You can be pro-choice without it being political. It depends on what your point of reference is. Unfortunately it's become political, which generally avoids a rational approach.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
More info... that could be improbable. Impossible is a pretty remote concept. It's likely reporterspeak and not statisticianspeak

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-statistically-imposs...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

2

Quote (dik)

You can be pro-choice without it being political. It depends on what your point of reference is. Unfortunately it's become political, which generally avoids a rational approach.

There is no "rational" approach to global warming that isn't inherently political. Your choices are:
a) The problem is real and catastrophic and we need to take drastic (and draconian) action right now that will result in extreme poverty, starvation, death and such for large numbers of the population. We need to force this action down the throats of the population..... Very political. Very ivory tower, very elitist.

b) The problem doesn't exist and it's made up by politicians to increase governmental power and control. Or, it's made up by extreme environmentalists that want mass genocide so that the human race goes back to purely hunter / gatherer societies that don't dominate their environments. This is also a very political approach.

c) The problem is real. It's short term and long term effects are not definitively proven. It would be wise to take reasonable (and affordable) steps now to lessen the projected impact. The economic and societal costs of these mitigation measures needs to be considered in addition, not solely the reduction in CO2 emissions that are our "goals". Bringing our economy to a net zero emission does little good if the economy has completely collapsed.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

The economic and societal costs of these mitigation measures needs to be considered in addition, not solely the reduction in CO2 emissions that are our "goals".

Good luck getting the climate zealots to admit there are societal/economic costs to their utopian visions. They consider any such costs negligible in comparison to the infinite cost of not achieving the climate goals.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I disagree, Josh... it's happening, politics, or no politics.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

What's "happening", dik? Global warming? Maybe, but with the vast majority of information gathering/research funded by governments looking to increase their power and control over their citizens/subjects, even that is questionable. Even if it's true that the planet has been warming over the last hundred or 200 years, that is no guarantee that it will continue for another hundred, 50, or 10. It's certainly no indication that it spell disaster for the planet or the human race. We are far more capable of adapting to changes in the climate than we ever have been, and we've adapted to past changes very well. Climate alarmism is all political fear-mongering in order to implement a Socialist agenda. In unguarded moments, several of the self-appointed leaders of the "green" movement have admitted as much.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tomfh)

Good luck getting the climate zealots to admit there are societal/economic costs to their utopian visions. They consider any such costs negligible in comparison to the infinite cost of not achieving the climate goals.

The same can be said of the opposite side.... Good luck getting the "deniers" to admit that there are long term societal / environmental costs to CO2 emissions that are not considered in our current energy economy. They consider such costs negligible / nebulous compared to any current costs associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels.

As with most things, the extreme views tend to be.... extreme. Whereas the real truth / compromise / practicality happens somewhere in the middle ground. This can be said about Global Warming, Abortion, and many other issues that are extremely politicized.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

If we don't know what the right thing is to do is (and we don't, when it comes to interfering with the changes in the climate), the best course of action is to not to interfere.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

the best course of action is to not to interfere.

Are we not "interfering" already? We do exist, and are doing things that impact the planet in some capacity.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

If we don't know what the right thing is to do is (and we don't, when it comes to interfering with the changes in the climate), the best course of action is to not to interfere.

Ludicrous logic. Absolutely ludicrous.

Our existence is interference. Even if you have your head in the sand regarding global warming, you can't believe that emissions in general are a good thing. Smog and acid rain are bad. Reducing them is good. Why so many people choose deliberate ignorance on this issue, whether that's the left side or the right side of the argument, is absolutely baffling.

The US has a choice - head in the sand, or attempt to be a technological leader. If we don't invest in energy technologies beyond fossil fuels, we will wind up being behind the power curve eventually, whether you believe that to be necessitated by climate or not.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Climate alarmism is all political fear-mongering in order to implement a Socialist agenda.

Conversely, ignoring climate change completely is the direct result of, by your own choice, being spoon-fed the narrative crafted by sources with a whole lot of big oil money in their pockets.

You're making an argument that is at best only tangentially true and is also impossible to win.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

In unguarded moments, several of the self-appointed leaders of the "green" movement have admitted as much.

Let's see your sources. I don't believe you.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Swinny, glad I wasn't the only one doing a double take on that one, nice post.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

Good luck getting the "deniers" to admit that there are long term societal / environmental costs to CO2 emissions that are not considered in our current energy economy.

Straw man. I admit it. I just don’t agree that the costs spent “fixing” it to be worth it. We’re not going to stop carbon emissions any time soon, but we will do a hell of a lot of damage trying to fix it. Countries are already starting to run out of power, and they haven’t even made a dent in CO2 emissions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Swinny)

Let's see your sources. I don't believe you.

The climate movement is very much a Trojan horse for those pushing socialism. Why do you think people like Thatcher, who originally supported climate action, did an about face when it became clear that climate action had become “a marvellous excuse for socialism”

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-01-16/exti...

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar...


https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/03/07/greta-...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Our existence is interference.

That could technically be said about every living thing on the planet.

Quote:

Smog and acid rain are bad.

Well, smog and acid rain are separate issues from CO2, which is good for plants, and not harmful to any animals in the concentration found in the atmosphere, or even at twice the level currently in the atmosphere. Nobody was talking about actual pollution, which I'm pretty sure nobody here is a proponent of increasing.

Quote:

Let's see your sources. I don't believe you.

Here's one to start with. I'll do some more digging later.

U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Curious what you think about this Bridge:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the...

I haven’t read from this group before so I don’t know the validity, but it does provide more insight into the more CO2 is good for plants stance.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Here's another:

The climate change protests are a Trojan horse for socialism

Quote:

The leader of the climate cult, teenage activist Greta Thunberg, essentially admitted as much when speaking to the United Nations on Monday. “We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth,” she said.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Curious what you think about this Bridge:

Typical of the prostitution many so-called 'scientists' eager to please their government benefactors, engage in. They admit that CO2 contributes to increased plant growth, but then try to say it doesn't matter because some areas will become too hot for plants to grow. This neglects the obvious other side of the coin - that a warming planet also allows places that were previously too cold (or too dry) to grow much plant life, too flourish with plant life. It also assumes that higher CO2 will drive continued warming, ignoring the many other factors that affect global temperatures.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I was just wondering that, with a mass extinction, there may not be a reason to do anything about climate change... ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The greening of the earth is a well known phenomenon, NASA has a page on it. The SA article ignores the more common issue with plants - lack of water. Extra CO2 means the pores on the leaves don't need to be open as much, so they lose less water to the atmosphere. Cherry picking? Seems they do it as well.


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The only thing going extinct is the proletariat and without them the socialists have no power.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Here's one to start with. I'll do some more digging later.

Here's another

So no one has actually said the thing you're saying they're saying, its all based on over analysis by right wing sources.

Thanks for that new information.

If someone shows up in this thread with some actual, real intellectual honesty I'll be shocked at this point.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Luceid)

I haven’t read from this group before so I don’t know the validity, but it does provide more insight into the more CO2 is good for plants stance.

More evidence that Scientific American went to the dogs years ago.

Net primary production (ie plant growth) is up 30% compared to 100 years ago, almost entirely due to the increase in CO2. The earth is significantly greener than 100 years ago. Global warming will cause a further increase in plant coverage if permafrost melts.

There are downsides to global warming. The effect on plants is not one of them. Plants like warmer wetter higher-CO2 environments. That’s why farmers put plants in greenhouses. Only our alarmist friends would tell us that no no, it’s actually a bad bad thing for plants.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

So the same EPA that is pushing for natural gas bans for home appliances is sunsetting HFC refrigerants at the same time. The R-410a phaseout begins this year. What do they expect us to use in our heat pumps?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Sorry tug... climate change is non-political...pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

sorry dik ... you've got to be kidding.

And maybe this is the key divide between the two camps. one sees the issue as a scientific certainty, the other sees it as a political problem.
And I think the "truth", such as it may be, is somewhere in between the two extremes. certainly we're impacting the environment (I don't see how anyone could object to that), the issue is how much. One camp thinks it is significant (even existential) and intends to apply significant political efforts to change our behaviour. The other thinks it is not significant in a global context (though it may well be significant in a local context, like a specific polluting factory) and would resist these political efforts.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (sorry dik ... you've got to be kidding.)


Climate change will kill socialists and capitalists with indifference. More likely the poor and downtrodden will be the worst to suffer. Quite serious... the indifference is non-political.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Climate change won't kill anyone except those who won't adapt.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Don't kid yourself, hokie... the wealthy (aka capitalists) will be less affected. Hurricanes, tornados, floods and droughts aren't fussy...

By adapting, that may include invading other countries with better climate conditions... all sorts of possibilities.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

It's warming up...

Besides the obvious cherry-picking, there's also the 'adjustments', that for some inexplicable reason, only decrease the temperatures in the past and increase the ones in the present. Of course, if they wanted to do it correctly, it would be just the opposite, due to the well-documented effects of urban heat islands.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

No units, no value. That's what I have to say for that graphic.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Thanks Luceid... I gave him the link, so he could find his own location... but he wasn't curious enough, I guess... It will be interesting to see what the next 20 years, will bring. I generally capture it without the timeline... makes a neat barcode.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

I generally capture it without the timeline... makes a neat barcode.

Yeah, it looks to me like about all it would be good for. smile

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Interesting, that graph that Luceid showed doesn't say what you think it says..... If the midline is the expected "average" temperatures then it shows that if you include all those years then the 'average' doesn't really appear to change. You just have a period of cold in the early 1900s and a period of heat in the 2000's that appear to cancel each other out.

This is kind of how averages work. That's statistics. You might get some extremes on one side or the other. But, the average can still remain the same.

Now, what would be really interesting is how this data was measured. Is it in the same location? Is this an amalgam of multiple locations. How many of those locations are in locations that haven't really changed since 1900. Meaning does this graph make any attempt to address the "Urban Heat Island" effect?

We've had satellites and weather balloons in the upper atmosphere for 50+ years now. How many of these have information on temperatures? What do these temperature readings say? Similar thing for Ocean temperature readings away from shore and not on the immediate surface. Those are much less "variable" data that doesn't need to be corrected as much. Let's look at THAT data and see what it says.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It says 0 is the average temperature from 1971-2000. The graph values are the differences in annual average compared to that... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Josh, there is no rocket science to determine the average temperature during a 'day' period. It's easy to calculate an average of a continuum of values. This is done for a 'yearly' period... just as easy... this average value is compared to the average temperature value for 1971 to 2000, with a plus or minus value depending on what the value.

At a glance, the graph shows the transition from 'blue' on the LHS t 'red' on the RHS... no rocket science or difficulty in understanding that, or there shouldn't be.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

...does this graph make any attempt to address the "Urban Heat Island" effect?

Doubtful. I've never seen data from any of the government-funded sources that do.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

It says 0 is the average temperature from 1971-2000. The graph values are the differences in annual average compared to that.

Why would they use such a narrow range of data to produce the average instead of the entire range?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

due to the well-documented effects of urban heat islands.

What exactly do you think the effects of urban heat islands are?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Why would they use such a narrow range of data to produce the average instead of the entire range?

Because if they used the entire range, it might not show what they want to show.... wink


Quote (SwinnyGG)

What exactly do you think the effects of urban heat islands are?

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Doubtful. I've never seen data from any of the government-funded sources that do.

First, the well document effects of "Urban Heat Islands" looks at the urbanization of temperature measurement statements over time. For example, the temperature censor may have been in a farmer's field or an orchard in 1900. Surrounded by ground, plants, streams and such. Then that area got developed, so in the year 1980, it is surrounded by concrete and asphalt with an exhaust vent from an air conditioning unit nearby. All of the changes to the environment mean that the temperature is artificially inflated based on it's surroundings.

Now, contrary to what BridgeSmith, all the major temperature recording folks tend to have statements about how they've accounted for this effect. There is, in fact, tremendous effort that goes into adjusting this data.
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/...

That being said, the HUGE controversy is that these research groups have not be very good at record keeping what they've done, where and why. So much so, that these groups (particular the CRU) has failed in it's main job of collecting reliable and transparent data. See link below. This isn't the controversy I remember, but it's the correct time frame (2009-ish). I remember one of the directors resigning or being fired. Basically admitting that they didn't do a good job of "record keeping" which was the research teams MAIN RESPONSIBILITY:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Un...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The Senate has just passed a bill like the House passed to reinstate tariffs on Chinese solar panels. There are more important things than rooftop solar. But Biden has promised to veto it.

https://rollcall.com/2023/04/28/with-defectors-on-...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It shows that in recent times there is a general shift in temperatures from cool to warmer... that's all it shows. It's an immediate visual display showing that recently (last few decades) things are generally warming up, and it does that well. In addition you can see how things have heated up elsewhere in the same period.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (dik will you at least acknowledge that "hurricanes decreasing, tornados decreasing, floods and droughts same as usual.")


I don't know about the frequencies of these events are, but from what I've read, the intensities are increasing. This latter is consistent with global warming.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understandin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (The Senate has just passed a bill like the House passed to reinstate tariffs on Chinese solar panels. There are more important things than rooftop solar. But Biden has promised to veto it.)


The bill might be in the best interests of the American manufacturers. The end result is the panels will become more expensive. Having the least costly solar panels will encourage people to buy them. Politics in action...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Buy cheap solar panels, along with cheap installation, stand back and watch your house burn. Not for me.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
You can buy good, inexpensive ones... not necessarily 'fire starters'. The expensive ones may be just as prone to causing fires. Mind you, if the cheap ones allow more of them to be purchased, then there may be a greater likelihood for a fire, just based on the numbers. You never know... and you don't know where the 'false starts' will occur.

Next step, the twilight zone. with apologies to Rod Stirling.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Thanks Greg... I'll take a peek. I've downloaded the US major storm data. Again with climate change, since the storm data indicates that the events are increasing in intensity, it may be an anomaly that they are increasing elsewhere, and not in the US. I'll look further.

https://res.cloudinary.com/engineering-com/raw/upload/v1683211782/tips/Most_Intense_3_4_5_Continental_United_States_Hurricanes_1851_-_1970_and_1983-2022_slwccv.ods

https://res.cloudinary.com/engineering-com/raw/upload/v1683211804/tips/North_Atlantic_Hurricane_Basin_1851-2022_sjtbkp.ods

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

The bill might be in the best interests of the American manufacturers. The end result is the panels will become more expensive. Having the least costly solar panels will encourage people to buy them

So instead of rewarding the countries who are abiding by (or at least very vocal about) all of these self imposed economic restrictions in the name of climate change, we should give our business to China who continues to build coal fired power plants, maintains terrible working conditions for workers, and where manufacturers go seemingly unpunished for their pollution of the water, air, and land? Resulting in a market flooded with more cheap, hard to recycle, throwaway products? Take a look at the Chinese electric vehicle industry and products - it's trash.

Seems like the bill would actually be in the best interests of everyone, especially those demanding climate action?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (all of these self imposed economic restrictions in the name of climate change)


It may the lesser of two evils? and, further delays implementing of 'green' power.

China seems to be doing some work:

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-...




Coal power is just a 'dirtier' type of carbon... but if you are using fossil fuels for the production of power, it still adds to the problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

GOP senator leaves top Energy Dept. official stumbling over basic questions about cost of the green agenda

News


Quote (Sen. Kennnedy)

"You just want us to spend $50 trillion and you don't have the slightest idea whether it's going to reduce world temperatures," he scolded Turk. "Now I’m all for carbon neutrality, but you’re the deputy secretary of the Department of Energy and you're advocating we spend trillions of dollars to seek carbon neutrality — and this isn't your money or my money, it’s taxpayer money — and you can’t tell me how much it's going to lower world temperatures? Or you won’t tell me? You know, but you won't?"

This is one of the major problems with these grand schemes to solve global warming - we don't know what effect, if any, it will have.

Quote:

Turk responded that he believes "in my heart of hearts" that "there is no way the world gets its act together on climate change unless the U.S. leads."

He may feel that in his "heart of hearts", but we don't know whether anyone would follow our lead, if we did move forward with this economic suicide. Most likely not anyone that matters.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dold)

So instead of rewarding the countries who are abiding by (or at least very vocal about) all of these self imposed economic restrictions in the name of climate change, we should give our business to China who continues to build coal fired power plants, maintains terrible working conditions for workers, and where manufacturers go seemingly unpunished for their pollution of the water, air, and land?

Yup. Don't forget they still have brutal concentration camps for the Uyghurs which is essentially "ethnic cleansing".

However, I will say that I did some research into the CO2 emissions (and growth) and such for China is not as bad as I thought it was. Yes, they still have some coal plants. Some of which are even relatively new. But, they have invested in a lot of more efficient power plants as well. They may not be doing quite as good as western Europe. But, they're not completely ignoring the issue either.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (but we don't know whether anyone would follow our lead, if we did move forward with this economic suicide)


I suspect, strongly, that if changes to accommodate/mitigate global warming are needed. These changes will be resisted by the US, even if essential for global recovery.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Yup. Don't forget they still have brutal concentration camps for the Uyghurs which is essentially "ethnic cleansing".)


Lets not go there... I keep thinking of Guantanamo Bay where people have been held for 20 years without being charged.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

However, I will say that I did some research into the CO2 emissions (and growth) and such for China is not as bad as I thought it was. Yes, they still have some coal plants. Some of which are even relatively new.



How bad did you think it was? They have over a thousand plants, with thousands of units overall:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/859266/number-...

And they’re building hundreds more.

https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-pe....

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Tom... with 5x the US population, China is nearly neck and neck with the US when it comes to coal plants.

You have to include all fossil fuels, and the US far exceeds China in this regard. Both are bad. Pointing out China's footprint is no excuse for not doing anything.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

It was the reported percentages of various types of power production for the country as a whole.... Granted, if we're relying on self-reporting, then the numbers may not be accurate.

As well as the per capita CO2 emissions. Same concept there. Though again, it may be a bad idea to rely on the self reporting of a country like China.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Quibble about the accuracy, and the problem is not solved... no matter how you cut it... it's still a bunch,

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

...with 5x the US population, China is nearly neck and neck with the US when it comes to coal plants.

Where do you get that? If I'm reading the info from the International Energy Agency correctly, China's coal consumption is about 35 times ours.

Quote:

You have to include all fossil fuels, and the US far exceeds China in this regard.

Here again, the US is not even close, unless you're comparing per capita numbers, which are irrelevant in a discussion of global emissions levels.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Where do you get that?)


From the statistica chart that Tom listed...



When it comes to carbon footprint per capita is the only way to go... it accommodates penalising countries with large populations and shows the contribution of the individuals that make up the country. If China had the same population as the US, the US would be nearly 2x further ahead...

from Worldometer, a little less than neck and neck... you have to look at all the fossil fuels consumed... including natural gas and petroleum... this is where the US excels. A lot of heating in China is likely by coal... a lot of heating in the US is by natural gas... both produce carbon.



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Bridge)

Where do you get that? If I'm reading the info from the International Energy Agency correctly, China's coal consumption is about 35 times ours.

What source is that? Can you provide a link?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Dik)

When it comes to carbon footprint per capita is the only way to go...

Yes we know that’s your position, that having the worlds highest carbon emissions is ok provided you’re sufficiently overpopulated.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
From Worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/energy/



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Instead of using per capita as metric, size of economy should be the rule. The largest economies are US, China, Japan, India, Germany. So US, Japan, and Germany are doing much better than India and China. The rest of the world is inconsequential.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
how about country area? makes about as much sense... private jets and automobiles are a measure of size of economy and have a big carbon footprint... not such a good metric, hokie.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

What source is that? Can you provide a link?

I did. "International Energy Agency" is the link. You just have to click on the country of interest, and then choose the parameter of interest from the drop-down menus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

When we're talking about curbing global emissions, per capita metrics are irrelevant; it's the totals by country that matter, since policies on emissions are set by nations. If the USA quit burning coal altogether over the next 10 years, but China increases the amount they're burning by 5% over that same time period, global emissions from burning coal remain constant increase, because China's coal-fired power plants don't have nearly as strict of emissions controls as ours.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

See Sheldon Whitehouse being schooled by a lady who does not have to read her answers to all the questions he reads. Pertinent to this thread is how she shows that wind and solar power are increasing emissions because the equipment is being manufactured using Chinese coal power.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-scholar-...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

None of what you say makes sense, dik. Until you or the Government can answer questions like the ones Senator Kennedy asked the Deputy Energy Secretary in the link which BridgeSmith posted 4 May 15:34, spending billions makes no sense. Like the Deputy Secretary, in your "heart of hearts" is not reason to destroy our economies.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The ex CEO on the Snowy2 hydro scheme blasts any ambition of 80% renewables by 2030 out of the water. He thinks it would take 80 years to build that out. Bowen is Minister for Unicorn Power.

https://omny.fm/shows/ben-fordham-full-show/it-s-b...

Here's a not very readable transcript

l, we've said this line a number of times Don't jump off the boat until you've reached the shore. And we say it about Australia's dramatic switch to renewable energy, where switching off coal at rapid rates. The backup plan isn't ready to go just yet. Take the massive hydro energy project Snowy 2.0. It's long been promised to store enough energy for 3 million homes. The project is disastrously delayed and overbudget. The former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, said in 2017 it would be up and running by 2021. Now they're saying 2029. It's gone from a $2 billion price tag to 10 billion, including all of the linked transmission lines. I wanted to have a chat to someone who knows about this backwards. His name is Paul Broad. He's one of Australia's leading experts on infrastructure. Now, Paul Broad was the CEO of Snowy 2.0 for a decade, but his tenure ended shortly after Chris Bowen became the federal Energy Minister. Paul Broad delivered Mr. Bowen some home truths about how the project was going. He was sent packing shortly after. Or maybe he decided to leave. Paul Broad, the former boss of Snowy 2.0, is on the line. Paul, thanks for joining us.

01:16
S2
Thanks. My pleasure. Ben. Did you leave or were you shoved?

01:20
S3
I put a combination of other words filtering down. In fact, I think when Bowen's elected that, you know, I was dead in the water, so I was only a matter of time, but I formally I formally resigned.

01:31
S1
Why were you dead in the water? What was it that was such a sticking point between where you stand and where Chris Bowen stood?

01:38
S2
Oh, a series of things.

01:40
S3
Particularly the gas plant at Kurri Kurri. Angus Taylor and I were very strong that you needed gas to keep the lights on gas. And we had more gas in NSW than we know what to do with. We need gas. So when the sun's not shining, when's not blowing Gas hydro are incredibly important and Chris Bowen was against, was against Kerikeri. Then he said, we're going to run, carry, carry 30% on hydrogen. There is no hydrogen in the heart and there won't be for another 1020 years at the earliest.

02:12
S1
You were just trying to help, right?

02:14
S3
Well, yeah, trying to help. I think in the in the 18 months leading up to it in the Senate estimates, the parliament is asking us lots of these sort of questions. So you got a sense of where Chris was coming from and that's his political view. I respect that. I just didn't agree with it. And there's no point being somewhere if you don't agree with it.

02:33
S1
You could have just drunk the Kool aid and said, Oh yeah, no, this is going to be the answer to all of our problems. It'll be able to carry the load. But you were being realistic and he didn't want to hear it.

02:43
S3
Yeah. Plus the fact the notion that you can have 80% renewable in our system by 2030 is to use the vernacular, the news vernacular. Yes, it's bullshit.

02:53
S2
It's bullshit.

02:54
S3
You can't. And the truth is, we need this transition. If it ever occurs, it will take 80 years, not eight. So there's massive changes need to occur. And I'm deeply concerned about the rush. The notion that somehow this is all magic. I'm going to wave a magic wand. We'll close a big baseload power plant. It's kept our lights on for years of my life and we're just going to close them and all these alternatives out there. Well, it's not. I can be absolutely 100% certain it's not available. And the transmission lines are miles late. 2.0, which is a part of the thing, is late. Like you need I think their own reports tell them you'll need at least eight, 82.0 to see their gold. That's 80 years, not eight.

03:37
S1
Let's just have a look at 2.0. So the biggest issue is these giant tunnelling machines. They weigh 2000 tonnes. They keep falling through the soft ground. Do we know how far along this project is? Is it halfway beyond? Halfway?

03:50
S3
Yeah. Look, look, I've got to defend 2.0. It was a huge part of my creation, and I'm quite proud of the the attempt to build a big pumped hydro. But it's complex. These tunnel boring machines have got to drill through, you know, heaps of rock. There's 28km of tunnels, 11m diameter. So and one of them's got actually bore uphill. So I've got to come in and get access to a cabin and then you've got bullet out of cabin which is 400m long kilometre under the mountain. So the complexity of this thing is enormous. So I'm not surprised that we've got delays. I suppose what worries me more is the lack of transmission. So you have this big power plant. It says no, used to. You haven't got a transmission line out the front to run it into the and where the people are. So the lack of transmission is going to be a big, big problem for us. The lack of transmission being because renewables, you know, the power plants we have are just up the road here and the hunter, all these new renewables are out west or somewhere else. There's no there's no power lines to get it here. So the notion you can have all this occurring without transmission and all the other investment which will cost the customer and the consumers a lot, the suggestion you can do all that and price. Is going to come down. It's just wrong. It's absolutely wrong. It's misleading. It's false. And suggest to keep suggesting that. I think eventually, eventually, you know, the average punter wakes up and there will be a there'll be a reaction.

05:15
S1
We're listening to Paul Broad, the former boss of Snowy 2.0, just on the timeline. I actually had a meeting with someone who's associated with the project about a month or so ago, and I said, What's going on with this thing? Because, you know, we were told it would be done by 2021 and now you're talking about 2027. And then they said to me, Oh, it might be late 20, 27. And I said, Well, that sounds to me like 20, 28. Now they're saying December 20th, 29. When I hear December 20th, 29, I think 2030. Realistically, when's it going to be done?

05:46
S2
Well, the.

05:47
S3
Transmission line is 27, so I suspect they'll get first power. I suspect now we're going, you know, something else will happen. I think the challenges for building it are still in front of them. You know, the biggest challenge they have for this whole project still to come. So there's lots of risk with it yet. But I suspect, given the fudges, the engineers do you know, I suspect the end of 27, middle 27, that sort of time frame. But then there's no point having it if the transmission line. So we've got to work out. Someone has got to tell us when are the farmers are going to agree to run the power lines over their properties, When are they going to agree to pay the farmers a reasonable annual sum to access their property and run the lines over their property? When all that's agreed and they work out the direction these things are going to come, You know, we haven't upgraded them in 50 years, let alone, let alone in five.

06:35
S2
So we've spoken.

06:36
S1
To some of those farmers and they're worried because they say, you know, they've got to knock down all of these trees to put the lines in. We're worried about bushfires. And the other issue is just that old line. It's my land. It's my property.

06:47
S2
Absolutely.

06:48
S3
And what happened? The truth of it, they had all these these shiny assets from Sydney Rock up to the farms. And so I'm going to put a power line over your property. Well, the farmer said, Get lost. You're not coming on my property as valuable. It is. It is their livelihood. It is what they live for. So they didn't they got off to a really bad start. All the people around Tumut and Gundagai, all those people are now up in arms because these things have got to be done right. You've got to sit down and you've got to be able to be flexible about the direction you go to minimise the impact on farmers. There's some power lines going right over the farmers house, so there's, you know, there's still a lot of work to be done on the transmission. There's still a lot of work to be done in 2.0 reports out saying you're going to need lots of 2.0. So it's really just the start of the journey. It's not it's not the end. And the I think the the notion that we can close these plants, you know, we can't Iran cannot close. Cannot close. Even now we're closing Liddell. We're on a knife's edge. You watch when it gets really hot or really cold, just how tight it gets in New South Wales if the lights don't go out, I'll be awfully surprised.

07:50
S1
A couple of quick ones. One of the private contractors went into administration in December. We've heard there are still unpaid bills to both workers and and to ongoing construction.

07:59
S3
Yeah, the contract has got a lot to answer for. And let me just I don't want to go in and go on here and beg the contractor, but they've got a lot to answer for. And I think they were trying gamed by not paying the local small contractors. And certainly when I was there, I was prepared to go and pay the contractors ourselves and then extract it from the contract. The big contractor later, I mean, they the major contractor has safety problems. The tragically lost to life down there a week or so ago. Um, the contractor has a lot of a lot, a lot of a lot of questions to answer. They're under a fixed price contract, so the price shouldn't be going up. But they are they're on a performance based contract and not performing. You sort of there is some big question marks and Cluff going broke halfway? Well, a month or 12 months ago, it's been a big problem. The guys were integral part of delivering it. So they've got a contractor, has a has a huge challenge in front of them and they've got huge questions to ask.

08:55
S1
Just on question marks, were were you hiding some of the delays from Chris Bowen? Because I see in the Financial Review, a spokeswoman for Mr. Bowen told the Financial Review that it was no secret that the Government was disappointed in the hiding of delays to major energy projects by the former government, including Snowy Hydro 2.0.

09:17
S2
That is just.

09:18
S3
Bullshit. The first meeting with Bowen, my first meeting with Bowen, he asked me and I said yeah, at 12 to 18 months when I was with last meeting of Angus, which was back in April when the contractor walked into Angus's office and said that we think going to be delaying going to the cost increase. Angus kicked him out of the office and said it's got to be delivered on time and on budget. That's the truth. I mean, what why does his office on this political spin, what is he trying to do?

09:43
S2
I mean, fake income, but just tell the truth.

09:45
S3
It's really easy in life. I find if you tell the truth, you can remember it. You're going to get yourself in too much trouble.

09:51
S1
I said at the start of my introduction, that line that a talkback caller said to me once about the switch to renewables Don't jump off the boat. Until you've reached the shore. Can you reflect on that for a moment before we say goodbye?

10:04
S2
Yeah, that's absolutely true.

10:05
S3
We can't make this transition to we absolutely convinced we what we've got. The alternative is going to work. There's going to be at a price point that it won't kill the economy. At the moment, we've got neither of those.

10:16
S1
Mark Colvin you say the idea of getting to 80% renewables by 2030 is complete BS. You say closer to 80 years?

10:23
S2
Yeah, well, you've got to build these things. You know, transmission lines.

10:26
S3
They say their own reports say you'll need 82.0 or their equivalents 12.1, 2.8, eight, ten years. So get eight. I can do my math. It's got to be 80, 70. So you'll be another generation before anything like.

10:42
S2
Anything like.

10:42
S3
What they're talking about occurs.

10:44
S1
We know it's never too late to learn a lesson. What would you say to Chris Bowen if he's listening this morning?

10:51
S2
Oh, take a big good and take.

10:52
S3
A big, deep breath. You know, you're a minister now. You've got responsibilities. You've got to you've got to put it all on the line and you've got to be you've got you've got to be honest to everybody about it.

11:02
S1
We really appreciate you coming on the line. You haven't mucked about. You're pulling no punches this morning. And we appreciate that, Paul.

11:08
S2
Thanks, Ben.

11:09
S1
Paul Broad, the former boss of Snowy 2.0. And I can only imagine the reaction in Chris Bowen's office right now. They won't be liking what they're hearing, but it sounds to me like he's just given a unfiltered view of Snowy 2.0 and also the transition to renewables. And you heard what he said about the government's targets, RBS. And he didn't put it the way I just put it then. He's also weighed into the other issue, which is just so obvious about needing to keep our major coal plant open. That is something that Chris Minns. Entertained during the election campaign. And thankfully since winning the election, he suggested that that is a must, that he's got to work out how we can keep the supply going and keep the prices low. And the discussions are underway with the operators. Like what you're hearing.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It's a start...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/03/us/new-york-natural...

I wonder who will follow?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Probably California, land of nuts and fruits.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I suspect Victoria in Oz is going that way. However the state currently only offers rebates on replacing electric water heaters with solar/gas so we're going the other way at the moment.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...and with time, maybe a few others.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Greg)

Paul Broad, the former boss of Snowy 2.0. And I can only imagine the reaction in Chris Bowen's office right now. They won't be liking what they're hearing, but it sounds to me like he's just given a unfiltered view of Snowy 2.0 and also the transition to renewables.

Bowen is a nasty piece of work. Spruiking his utter nonsense of 80% by 2030, and destroying anyone who points out that it's impossible.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

25 years ago we could write an entire article about a freak weather even without mentioning climate change.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Stormy-Reco...

And with all of the climate change since, we still haven't increased the frequency as the event hasn't occured again.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Things are starting to heat up in Alberta, too:

https://globalnews.ca/news/9675857/alberta-wildfir...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

5:1 caused by humans. That means with a match, not climate change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Another hot spot:

"Vietnam has recorded its highest ever temperature, just over 44C (111F) - with experts predicting it would soon be surpassed because of climate change."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65518528

Maybe they can move to higher ground?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

That would be wise.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Wind turbines...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65261147

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
and heating up in Spain, too.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65403...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I would suggest by the loss of ice, that something was happening. Climate change is just that... climate change... we don't know what the end result will be, some places could warm, some cool. If AMOC occurs, Europe and the UK could be in for some cooler times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2ETr6X1lOk

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

some places are cooler...



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...a cautionary tale.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/08/us/greenland-peterm...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
The problem is that we don't know if it's going to happen or how it's going to 'stop'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Here is the quote, and the data is in the link.

Quote (Making it all worse new studies have proven that clouds now contain "drug resistant bacteria" and "fungal pathogens".)


If you actually believe this garbage, you should just lock the door to your underground bunker and turn off your internet. You cannot be saved.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

The problem is that we don't know if it's going to happen or how it's going to 'stop'.

That's what I've been saying. I find it odd that you're saying this, but advocating action to mitigate it, anyway. Or were you referring to something other than global warming?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

I find it odd that you're saying this, but advocating action to mitigate it, anyway

The point you and TugBoat seem to be missing is that curbing emissions as a whole affects a lot of other things beyond temperatures. It's not about just that. There are benefits to air quality, energy independence, grid investment, energy economy robustness against price swings, etc etc etc.

Any negative consequences - and I don't disagree that there are some - are short term consequences that won't matter 100 years from now, while the benefits will.

Y'all seem determined not to look at the consequences of any choice any further out than about 2 weeks. Which is why other people are baffled by your point of view.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

The point you and TugBoat seem to be missing is that curbing emissions as a whole affects a lot of other things beyond temperatures. It's not about just that. There are benefits to air quality, energy independence, grid investment, energy economy robustness against price swings, etc etc etc.

Curbing actual pollution has benefits. Curbing CO2 doesn't help anything other than supposedly mitigating the greenhouse effect.

As far as energy independence, the war on fossil fuels has us going backwards on that one. It's not doing any favors for the economy, either.

Quote:

Any negative consequences - and I don't disagree that there are some - are short term consequences that won't matter 100 years from now, while the benefits will.

We have no idea what the world, or the climate, will look like in 100 years. Bankrupting our economy to forestall what may (or may not) happen decades from now, does not make sense to me.

Quote:


Y'all seem determined not to look at the consequences of any choice any further out than about 2 weeks. Which is why other people are baffled by your point of view.

Well, all y'all on your side of the argument seem determined to take extraordinary and detrimental steps to mitigate what you **assume** will be an insurmountable problem decades down the road. That baffles me.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

SwinnyGG, my point has always been that attempts to curb CO2 emissions seem to do the opposite. Besides, you're living in the 1990's. The climate change movement has been co-opted away and into something completely different. It's not about pollution anymore but environmental justice and social governance.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Curbing actual pollution has benefits. Curbing CO2 doesn't help anything other than supposedly mitigating the greenhouse effect.

I don't particularly care about CO2, specifically. CO2 emissions and general 'pollution' are inextricably linked. To attempt to ignore that is obtuse to say the least.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

It's not doing any favors for the economy, either.

The economy in the US is as powerful as it has ever been, despite 'climate change' ostriches crying about how terrible it is. This is complete BS.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Bankrupting our economy to forestall what may (or may not) happen decades from now, does not make sense to me.

Investment in infrastructure isn't 'bankrupting our economy'.

This is a completely ridiculous assertion that is fell back upon when there is nowhere else to go.

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Well, all y'all on your side of the argument seem determined to take extraordinary and detrimental steps to mitigate what you **assume** will be an insurmountable problem decades down the road. That baffles me.

Long term planning for investment in infrastructure is neither extraordinary, nor is it detrimental.

I do not assume that there is some insurmountable problem at any point. Humans adapt. But there will be a tipping point eventually with regard to fossil fuels - it may be climate driven, it may be geopolitical - and my contention is that diversifying our energy infrastructure over the coming decades means that there is much less probability of a sudden crisis further down the road, no matter what the potential cause of that crisis may be.

The argument that our current energy economy is completely fine, is insulated from any potential source of disruption, and requires zero long term investment is completely ridiculous, and it's the argument you're making if you're arguing against my point of view. I am not Dik. I do not think 2 billion people are going to die in 2024 because sea levels rise a half millimeter.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (I find it odd that you're saying this)


That's always been my contention... the problem is, I think we are in trouble, and have no idea of how bad this can get. The weather events of late, may just be a precursor. No one seems to be interested in mitigating it. In addition, there could be some serious geopolitical issues, too.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (Curbing CO2 doesn't help anything other than supposedly mitigating the greenhouse effect.)


And that is one of the major problems. The CO2 'blanket' is causing the earth to heat up with some really interesting consequences possibly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (SwinnyGG)

The argument that our current energy economy is completely fine, is insulated from any potential source of disruption, and requires zero long term investment is completely ridiculous

Nobody is making that argument. My personal argument is that the things we are doing are going to make those problems worse. That's why I said it's better to do nothing at all.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (My personal argument is that the things we are doing are going to make those problems worse.)


My concern is that we are not doing enough, and that things are going to get worse.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Meanwhile, there is no credible quantification of reduction from any action that has been taken.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Meanwhile, there is no credible quantification of reduction from any action that has been taken.

...nor any that's been proposed.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (there is no credible quantification of reduction from any action)


or implementation of any action that may be essential. Everyone's waiting to see what will happen and maybe try to react to it when it does.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I'm just curious to see what the effects of ENSO later this year.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

You have hundreds of years to compare to.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Maybe an anomaly... we'll see. It might be an inkling of what is coming. These are huge energy systems...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

My personal argument is that the things we are doing are going to make those problems worse

Yeah, we all know that. Your personal argument is categorically wrong. You've made it very, very clear that you will never conduct an impartial review of your own belief system. I suspect that it's because your ego won't allow you to do so, but that's neither here nor there in this context.

Thats why in your reality global warming can't possibly be real, and there's no such thing as a legitimate climate scientist, and climate measurements are easy to take, and on and on.

This is also why you and Dik are of the same cloth. You're operating on the same plane as you-know-who who posts hot garbage all the time.. the only difference is that when challenged, you make even more baseless claims instead of running away.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (This is also why you and Dik are of the same cloth.)


Nope... not even close.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

SwinnyGG, you are deliberately misinterpreting my comments to reinforce your biases.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugboatEng)

SwinnyGG, you are deliberately misinterpreting my comments to reinforce your biases.

You can think that all you want - but what I'm actually telling you is how you sound to everyone else. You may sound different in your head, but that's now how you're presenting yourself.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

And you speak for everyone else?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (TugboatEng)

And you speak for everyone else?

I speak for anyone who reads your long history of responding to these threads with logical fallacies aimed at eliminating the conversation around actual data and information, without ever making a single, actual argument.

If you want to make an argument, actually make one.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (dik)

My concern is that we are not doing enough, and that things are going to get worse.

My belief is that you are correct. We're probably not doing enough. Though I would say it a different way. More like... what we're doing is an inefficient use of our resources. Driven by what makes us "feel better" rather than what actually helps the environment.

Does anyone actually believe that outlawing plastic straws is going to do anything about the plastic waste in the pacific ocean? Not really. It just makes the nutty Californians feel as if they are doing something. So, they can pat themselves on the back and continue to talk about how morally lsuperior they are to the rest of the world.

Just like shutting down the San Onofre nuclear plant makes those same people feel good. But, that's actually EXTREMELY counterproductive to their stated goal of reducing CO2 emissions.

Things are going to get worse. This is probably true too. We can and should attempt to do more. But, not in counterproductive ways. Small steps forward. Punish the worst CO2 emitters with taxes and fees. Then use those taxes and fees for things that will help in the future. That's biasing the market in a way such that it will find greater efficiencies.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

...what we're doing is an inefficient use of our resources. Driven by what makes us "feel better" rather than what actually helps the environment.

I'll definitely agree with you there.

Quote:

Just like shutting down the San Onofre nuclear plant makes those same people feel good. But, that's actually EXTREMELY counterproductive to their stated goal of reducing CO2 emissions.

Demonstrating that's it's not really about CO2 for them, but about virtue signaling for some and for others, it's about forcing dependency and a reduced standard of living on the populace.

Quote:

Things are going to get worse. This is probably true too. We can and should attempt to do more. But, not in counterproductive ways. Small steps forward. Punish the worst CO2 emitters with taxes and fees. Then use those taxes and fees for things that will help in the future. That's biasing the market in a way such that it will find greater efficiencies.

This is where I diverge from your approach. Yes, regulations on actual pollution are a good thing. the rest will take care of itself. If fossil fuels become more scarce and more expensive, they will be replaced with less expensive alternatives. There's no reason to hamstring our economy and make everyone pay more for other sources of energy by imposing artificial scarcity.

You all know by now I'm a staunch opponent of imposing "green" energy solutions, but you probably don't know that if I could, I'd have grid-tied wind turbines at my house? If I ever manage to get out where I have enough space between me and my neighbors, to do it, I will, not to cut my CO2 emissions and help stop global warming, but because it has a good ROI.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

This is where I diverge from your approach. Yes, regulations on actual pollution are a good thing. the rest will take care of itself. If fossil fuels become more scarce and more expensive, they will be replaced with less expensive alternatives. There's no reason to hamstring our economy and make everyone pay more for other sources of energy by imposing artificial scarcity.

So, the root cause of our differences is the definition on what "pollution" is. Right?

If some corporation is dumping toxic waste into our water supply, that will kill people, animals fish and such... Then we will impose tremendous punishments against them so that they can never do that again. That's obvious. We all agree on that.

We might have lesser punishments for a plant that emits gasses into the air that cause the rain to be corrosive and acidic. We can easily measure the change in the rain. Then we'd want to demonstrate that there is a problem with the rain's acidity that can harm crops or such. This is why our government would force that plant to clean up it's emissions. Right?

The tricky thing is that C02 isn't a pollutant by it's nature. It's inherently natural. But, the amount of it that's being released into the air still affects the environment. It's like when processed waste water is released into rivers and streams. The processed water becomes a problem because of the AMOUNT of processed water that is being released. But, in this case the environmental effect of the released water is immediate. Therefore, we more and more stringent requirements for how the waste water must be treated before it can be released.

For CO2, the idea is very similar to the waste water case. We're releasing a lot of CO2. We've been doing it for awhile and we're just now beginning to understand that it is having an effect on our environment. Therefore, we want to take steps to prevent environmental damage from this gas. But, the effects are local, so passing requirements on a plant next door does next to nothing to solve the problem. We could just ignore the problem because there's no easy solution. But, if we want to come up with a solution, the ONLY option is to skew the system (i.e. free market) in a way that accounts for the extra environmental cost that isn't currently accounted for. This is a very, very challenging thing to do. Nearly impossible. But, it needs to be done GLOBALLY in order for it to be a true long term solution.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (It just makes the nutty Californians feel as if they are doing something)


It's like putting a bandaid on a slashed juggler.

I suspect that we have to seriously look at cutting back our use of energy... and that's not happening. It's not just a matter of finding a 'green' alternative.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...maybe a step in the right direction. We'll see where this leads.


"The Biden administration is announcing a climate rule that would require most fossil fuel power plants to slash their greenhouse gas pollution 90 percent between 2035 and 2040 — or shut down."

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/11/biden-rul...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Shutting down all the evil fossil fuel plants. Very Cambodian “year Zero” style thinking.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Don't insult Cambodians, Tomfh.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
...or Australians. Heating up even more...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-65541621

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Australia has some of the best coking (not coaking) coal. It is essential for steelmaking. The environmental extremists, like you, dik, would have us live in the Dark Ages.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tomfh)

Shutting down all the evil fossil fuel plants. Very Cambodian “year Zero” style thinking.

Khmer Rouge 1975 would be year zero. This would be same people (Pol Pot and such) that let to the "Killing Fields" and mass executions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Zero_(political...)

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
I dunno, hokie, things may have to change a tad...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Hokie -

I doubt the main use of Australian coal is for steel production. If that's all we were using Coal for then we'd be a lot better off from a CO2 emissions standpoint.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
It sounds like it is a good anthracite type...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Josh)

Khmer Rouge 1975 would be year zero

Yes that is what I was referring to. The mindless shutting down of the economy and society. Not a thought given as to the ramifications. No, just shut it down.

Net Zero. Year Zero. It’s the same logic; shut it all down, and build back better something in its place.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Tomfh)

Net Zero. Year Zero. It’s the same logic; shut it all down, and build back better something in its place.

I think your analogy is a powerful one. The kind of "us against them" attitude that let to mass slaughter / death of a population. No matter how "brilliant" the leaders of your society are, they should not be given total control or authority on ANYTHING.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Josh,

There are two main types of coal produced in Australia. Thermal coal and coking coal. The coking coal consists of about 47%, according to what I read recently.

But the article which dik linked was about a new coking coal mine, thus my response.

Both are essential to both the economy of Australia and the economy of the main customers, which include Japan, China, India. That will remain the case for many years.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
More interesting stuff, and something to look forward to...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/this-ho...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Some good news in the UK...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65557...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote:

Some good news in the UK...

You think so? I guess they'll find out if it's really a good thing. They'll just have to hope the wind blows when they need it to.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Your chosen article says that 42% of electricity is produced by windmills and solar, and that electricity is 18% of total energy requirements. So the 'renewables' produce about 7.5% of total energy. Hard to see that getting to 100. There wouldn't be any land or sea left.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

The 3rd year in a row, the Co2 gases have forced and maintained a high pressure area above Wa state causing the latest heat extreme.
What are the odds of that? No it can't be more of the same ole geoengineering can it? Ever since 2021 this has happened right along with all the other never happened before issues.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)

Quote (They'll just have to hope the wind blows when they need it to.)


or have enough batteries? I think they are needed for wind, and if it's cloudy, for solar.

It's a start hokie... more likely to follow...



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

I guess one could argue that CO2 increases the battery capacity of the atmosphere. It causes the atmosphere to store more energy to keep those wind turbines spinning more regularly.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
a beginning? I wonder what the rest of the year brings?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/hea...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Just check out the sat images, notice its the pressure areas that are positioned and causing this redirection of PNW weather up north. Geoengineering at its finest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkAup2B7Tug

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

Quote (Dik)

or have enough batteries?

Batteries don’t work for grid level storage. Batteries are good at buffering electrical supply for minutes at a time. Not for storing days worth of electrical power.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Not sure...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
Canada may be catching on...

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII

(OP)
We should move this on to Part IX...

thread1618-506948: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part IX

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

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