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Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII
16

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Happy New Year to everyone...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Great, let's shift from temperature to heat in our discussions. Real numbers.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I'll leave the heat side to you, bearing in mind that a 0.01 deg C rise in temperature of the oceans is equivalent in heat energy to 10 deg C in the atmosphere, you'll be able to get any number that is convenient, and no way of knowing what is right - we simply don't have the data .

Meanwhile, I've been banging on about urban heat islands (another heat effect!). Why it matters is that if you try and use the current temperature record and CO2 record to work out the climate sensitivity (CS), if you use data with lots of heating put in by cities, you'll overestimate CS, overestimate CO2's influence and overestimate the reduction in temperature seen by reducing CO2.

And luckily here we are - NA's trend in the last 50 years is 40% driven by UHI https://dailysceptic.org/2022/11/04/u-s-warming-ov... not CO2

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Heat or temperature... does't much matter... similar effects. We'll see what this year brings.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
The New Year is off to a good start... pipe

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/01/us/california-flood...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

CNN?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I couldn't find it on Fox...ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I wonder why people think building cities in known flood plains, surrounded by known flood plains, is not going to have consequences? Quick! Give that kid a jar of gasoline and some matches!

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...maybe because governments that get donations from rich property developers allow it to happen. There was a time when it didn't happen.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

I wonder why people think building cities in known flood plains, surrounded by known flood plains, is not going to have consequences?

Some flood plains like the Nile river valley have fertile soil replenished by the floods, resulting in highly productive farmlands that support feeding a large population. People have historically needed to live near food and commerce centers; there's lots of reasons for living near the oceans, while "empty" places like the Sahara and Sonoran deserts stay empty. This predates property developers.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Some flood plains like the Nile river valley have fertile soil replenished by the floods, resulting in highly productive farmlands that support feeding a large population.

It did until the Aswan High Dam was built. Now all the fertile soil is trapped behind the dam, and the Nile river valley is barren. Typical of man's attempts to control and improve upon the natural systems. The unintended consequences of acting without understanding are typically devastating. You'd think we'd learn to gather adequate factual data before charging ahead with half-baked 'solutions' to problems that may or may not exist, but apparently many either haven't learned that lesson, or just don't care, as long as they can make lots of money off of it (Yeah, I'm looking at you, Al Gore).

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

That was after millions of people wound up living there and got flooded out every year.

So, instead of doing the ecologically sound thing, they did the convenient thing, and destroyed the ecosystem. They tried to control nature, rather than adapt to it, and made a huge mess, for the people and the ecosystem. Now they're making the same blunder with temperature/climate.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

They tried to control nature, rather than adapt to it, and made a huge mess, for the people and the ecosystem.

And the alternative was to uproot millions of people and move into the desert? We're talking about moving 80% of Cairo out of the delta?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

2
People that build in a flood plain, especially one that "got flooded out every year" should expect everything they build to be washed away. If they don't want it to be washed away, they should not build in a flood plain. Again, picking a fight with natural Earth processes is an expensive battle that we're always going to lose, one way or another.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

No one starts off with a 1000-yr plan that says "we're going to have 10 million people living here 950 years from today, so we should plan our village with that in mind." Inevitably, the people that wind up living in a bad spot get to vote out politicians that tell them they were stupid for building their houses in a flood plain, and vote in politicians that promise to build a dam to stop the flooding.

We all "know" that's stupid, but people are, in general, not great thinkers or planners. If anything, human stubbornness tends to keep them stuck in those situations; few actually say, "WTF, this is crazy" and go find greener pastures.


No different than finding that median retirement savings for 65-yr olds is only around $160k; the "safe withdrawal rate" of 4% would allow $6400/yr withdrawal from those savings. These people didn't "plan" to have only $6400/yr of "play" money, did they?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

true, they don't. They set up shop somewhere convenient for a bunch of different reasons. Then they stay and adjust to the annual flooding (like the Egyptians did for thousands of years) or they move.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

We have them here in Tiburon California. 100 years ago they built a sea wall and it's deteriorating. Now, the wall needs to be rebuilt because of climate change?!. Now it's the duty of the taxpayers to rebuild the sea wall to protect the most expensive houses in the world because it's our fault for climate change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

how is the sea wall any different to any other social amenity (like a road) ? So it needs to be repaired and rebuilt ... SOP, no?

presumably the local taxes account for some of this localised expense ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

No one starts off with a 1000-yr plan that says "we're going to have 10 million people living here 950 years from today, so we should plan our village with that in mind."

Cairo was there many hundreds of years before the dam was built.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Cairo was there many hundreds of years before the dam was built.

Exactly my point; so who decided to build and not plan Cairo there without any consideration for NOT building Aswan hundreds years later? No one did, which is why Aswan had to be built to avoid moving or rebuilding the entirety of the largest city in the country.

My wife made a similar comment about our local Costco; "They should have planned for a larger parking lot 20 years ago to accommodate all the people today."

Doh!

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The sea wall is due for it's routine rebuild but if they can blame the need on climate change they get outside funding, which they don't need.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

No one did, which is why Aswan had to be built to avoid moving or rebuilding the entirety of the largest city in the country.
I don't follow your logic on that. The Nile valley has been flooding regularly for thousands of years. How did "the entirety" of Cairo suddenly end up in the flood plain, requiring the construction of a dam?

That aside, my point stands. Building the dam destroyed the Nile river valley. The city that relied on the fertile soil for it's existence, now has nothing, because of a dam that was built to 'save' it. Every time we try to outsmart nature, we screw up nature and screw ourselves.

That brings us back once again to the subject - trying to control, or even affect, the climate is a fool's errand. We don't know which direction the global temperature will go next year, much less in next century. A trend is only a trend until it's not. The next generation may look back and think us mighty foolish, especially if the global average temperatures start dropping again.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Or the climate improves as temperatures rise...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I've noticed that in the last several years, it's gotten a whole lot better... there must be a list of the thousand year events, somewhere. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
"water, water, everywhere..." with apologies to S.T.Coleridge pipe

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/world/glaciers-melt...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/07/weather/flooding-he...

Added

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coastal-residents-on-...

and another...

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-642062...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

It's the worst storm we've had in 5 years.

It takes a storm to end a drought.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...so, how many 1000 year events can you get in a week? ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

California is on a 20 year weather cycle. There have been storms like this regularly. This is not our biggest storm. This storm has not exceeded our 1983 storms. This storm is nowhere near the devastation of our 1861 storm. The current flooding, except for one town, is entirely caused by a lack of housekeeping, not special weather events.

Our seasons have ALWAYS been less severe since 1861.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

You are probably beginning an El Nino cycle, when the US west coast gets a lot of rain and the Australian east coast gets little. The reverse of the La Nina cycle we have been in.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII


dik (Structural)
(OP)
8 Jan 23 05:45
...so, how many 1000 year events can you get in a week? ponder
-------------------------------------------------------
As many as they wish to create. Geo Engineering to the max.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

...so, how many 1000 year events can you get in a week? ponder
Statistically speaking, it's only limited by the length of time for a single event. However, since we have only a couple hundred years' worth of actual data to work with, I would think definitions would probably need to adjusted.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Yup... was rhetorical... since accurate records have not been recorded until relative recently...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Meanwhile the pesky satellites are claiming the computer models are wrong, and the more recent ones are worse than the older ones.



Ignore the purple dashed trend line, that's someone trying to pick a trend from too little data. Bear in mind that the first 15 years of that plot was part of the real data used to train the models, therefore up to 1990 it merely indicates how well trained they are, not how good they are at predicting.

Why is CMIP6 doing such a bad job? Generally too little spatial resolution, but the fundamental model seems to be

(1)Ignoring Oceans -the 1 degree anomaly anomaly in 40 years is equivalent to 0.001 deg C of ocean warming.
(2)Ignoring Clouds
(3)Ignoring Secondary effects from changes in solar output
(4)Conscious or unconscious selection of worst case design decisions. You don't get grants if you predict there isn't a problem, and you don't get published if you go against the zeitgeist.
(5)over and underestimating feedback loops (clouds again)
(6)etc

Basically if you think CO2 is THE thermostat then you get this sort of result, because you assign all the other changes in the world since 1880 lumped in and correlated with the monotonic rise in CO2.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

All I know for sure is when I grow up I wanna be GregLocock :)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
My problem is that I don't want to grow up...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Somebody seems to be 'catching on'... pipe

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147805696/climate-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

What do you mean 'catching on'? NPR has been on the 'man-made climate change is destroying the planet' bandwagon from the beginning.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Can you please define what worse means when it comes to storms? It seems the worse a storm is the more beneficial it is. It takes big storms to end droughts.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Maybe it will slide into the ocean...

https://globalnews.ca/news/9399238/california-stor...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Ita not all doom and gloom in CA. We even got a double rainbow today.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Can you please define what worse means when it comes to storms? It seems the worse a storm is the more beneficial it is. It takes big storms to end droughts.

There is very little "perspective" given in California. Here we are always in one of the following situations:
a) In the middle of a drought.
b) Just got out of a drought.
c) Need to be prepared to go into a drought that will be right around the corner. (See the last atmospheric river event in 2016/2017).

We're just a relatively dry, arid state. We're not used to significant rain storms. We'll go years (maybe even decades) between events like we're experiencing now. As such, our infrastructure is not very well prepared to handle this degree of rain. Which means, roads will flood (or wash out completely), storm drains will get clogged up causing localized flooding.

In enough places, the brush cover has dried out died out to the point where we worry about mud slides as well.

Now, as far as the "drought" is concerned, these storms are a good thing. We'll get our reservoir levels up a bunch. My guess is that just about all of the reservoirs in NorCal will be filled this year. We'll get our snow back up as well. Snow pack is really important for us because that keeps of reservoirs full (from melting snow pack) for most of the year.



RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Some notes about current reservoir levels (from a site that's updated daily):
Shasta and Oroville (the big ones with more than 8 Million Acre-Feet between the two) are at about 50% of capacity.
Trinity and Melonnes (with 2.4 M each) are closer to 25% of capacity.
Don Pedro (2M) is at about 75% of capacity (which is about the historical average).
San Luis (2M) is at about 40% of capacity.
McClure, Folsom, and Pine flat (with 3M between them) are all right about in line with historical averages, which should be a big improvement over last year.
Millerton (0.52M) and Parris (0.12M) are approaching capacity (i.e. more than 75% full).

I expect all of those numbers will go up significantly between now and the end of the month. The next question is what happens with the reservoirs in the other western states, especially Lake Mead. I have a feeling Lake Mead will go up much more slowly.... Since it's fed by the Colorado river and snow / rain in the Rockies, not the Sierra Nevadas.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

As far as Global Warming is concerned, I think we are more likely to see more precipitation in California than we've seen historically. It will result in more flooding and problems for a bit. But, in the long run, we'll just work on the infrastructure a bit and we'll get it taken care of. I'd argue that (if precipitation does increases over historic levels) then that will be a good thing for the population of CA. More water, more CO2 free power, more agriculture, et cetera.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
There may be more to this earth than California... we'll have to see how it 'shakes out'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Dik's headline of course sensationalises a report described by its authors as

"This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of extreme events."

Or indeed, may not.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Josh... how's Mead Lake, doing... one of the larger ones, too. It has a capacity of nearly 30M A.ft.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

You can Google that. Josh explained what he thought Lake Mead would do in his above post but it is not his responsibility to explain what it is currently doing.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (Dik)

Josh... how's Mead Lake, doing... one of the larger ones, too. It has a capacity of nearly 30M A.ft.

I left out Lake Mead and Lake Powell because those aren't reservoirs for California. Not as affected by the California rains / storms. The information I was reading about them is that they are entirely fed by the Colorado River. Which (if you look at the path of the Colorado on a map) is mainly fed by the Rockies rather than the Sierra Nevadas. I'm not sure how much these current rains have hit the Rockies.

Even if the Rockies have been affected by these storms, it wouldn't be until the snow melts in the spring that the flow of the Colorado would increase. I also wonder how many states syphon off water from this river before it gets to Lake Mead and Lake Powell. My understanding is that there are basic issues with these reservoirs and the current use of water consumption isn't sustainable. At least in the desert areas of Arizona / Nevada / California where it's water is being consumed.

However, my post was mostly about California's water storage system as a whole. Which should be in pretty decent shape after this winter (fingers crossed). While Southern California and the Central Valley are quite dry. There is enough water storage in NorCal and the Sierras to solve that problem.... especially if we would be more willing to use "recycled" water or grey water.

However, I think you are correct in saying the worst "water issues" are currently associated with Lake Mead. Even if that doesn't affect people where I live and the vast majority of Californians.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
California is extremely dependent on the condition of Lake Mead...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Without it we wouldn't be able to buy electricity for Nevada and claim our net zero status.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (Dik)

California is extremely dependent on the condition of Lake Mead...

Nowhere in NorCal, the Bay Area, or the Central valley is dependent on Lake Mead. Not Fresno, Stockton, or Sacramento. Not anywhere in the Sierra Nevadas, Big Bear, Tahoe or Mammoth. Not Santa Barbara. Not LA or Orange County as far as I'm aware.

Maybe parts of San Diego, Riverside, or Imperial County? But, that is a relatively small sliver of the state. Not enough (IMO) for you to say that the state is "extremely dependent" on Lake Mead. Not sure what you're basing your claims upon.....

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

It's extremely important to California's energy laundering scheme.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Not enough (IMO) for you to say that the state is "extremely dependent" on Lake Mead.

Not Lake Mead, per se, but its level is certainly indicative of the health of the Colorado River itself, for which SoCal, which you live in is dependent on.

Quote (https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/california...)

The Colorado River is a major source of water for California
The Colorado River supplies roughly a third of all water for Southern California cities and suburbs. It also supports a
large farming industry in Imperial and Riverside Counties.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I think the issue is a little more difficult... California is in the position where their allocation of the water from the Columbia Colorado river is a high priority. If the situation remains the same, I can see in the future where the federal government may have to change this agreement... as a 'force majeure' causing a change to their water agreement. They need Lake Mead for water supply as well as Hydro power (a really clean source). I don't have a clue about how this will end. There are also international repercussions...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

That's a new one on me. I never knew that California had an allocation from the Columbia River. I suspect dik means the Colorado, but maybe Canadians don't know the geography well.

https://columbiainsight.org/for-drought-plagues-ca...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Sorry Hokie... wrong name.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I'm just looking at the 1982 paper, it's pretty good. https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Fi...


There's a lot there, including a pretty good estimate of CO2 ppm and temp (fig 3 p7), and hence a pretty good estimate of CS, and figure demonstrating that GCMs tend to give higher estimates of CS than 2 other approaches(muffled laughter) fig 5 p9. Actually on further reading we're about in line with their high fossil fuel use case, so far as CO2 ppm (417), but I think that puts their temperature estimate about 0.2 high, so not quite as good as I'd thought, but significantly better than CMIP6.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

2
greg, greg, greg ... really, the science is settled !?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

It assumes that the greenhouse effect is due to CO2, and then looks at the implications of various amounts of fossil fuel usage. I'm keen to find the source for the climate sensitivity estimates, but the refs aren't structured in the way that is usual these days.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

It's actually a pretty interesting document that Greg shared.

What I found particularly useful was the plots that showed the expected range of fluctuation and the natural range of fluctuations. This certainly demonstrates one of the things that is most challenging about "climate modeling" and why a single year (or even a decade) of data can be significantly up or down from the prediction just based on natural fluctuation.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Odd to see ExxonMobil being attacked for this. I think it demonstrates a highest level of ethics that they even commissioned such a study.

Personally, I like ExxonMobil because only their greases have useful product data sheets.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...and that they did absolutely nothing about the study may be a bit of a problem...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

I think it demonstrates a highest level of ethics that they even commissioned such a study.

40 years ago, it wasn't even an ethics issue to do the study, just diligent science; the 40 years of suppressing the information is the unethical part, since they immediately cut the budget of those scientists the year after

Here's an earlier (1978) Exxon document https://insideclimatenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2...

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
My first inkling of climate change came about 60 years back on a series of tape lectures given by Dr.Ken McLachlan on cybernetics. He made a comment about us 'maybe being on that slippery slope'. When I asked him about the reference, he explained that...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

5

Quote (dik)

...and that they did absolutely nothing about the study may be a bit of a problem...

There was nothing to do about this "study". It wasn't even a study, it was merely "mile high" / executive summary about research on a topic that they felt executives needed to be briefed about in case they were questioned about it.

The "study" was pretty clear about a number of things:
a) There wasn't any conclusive evidence that this was really happening (back in 1982-ish) and that given the margin of error caused by normal temperature variations, it would be mid 90's that any warming would actually be noticeable.

b) That the "results" from warming might be beneficial in some ways and negative in others. Result in more rain in certain areas, more drought in other areas.

c) That some scientists were concerned that the effects would not be reversible by the time the effects were noticeable enough to warrant action.

What action could Exxon have taken exactly? Let's say the CEO was "all in" and decided he had to campaign against fossil fuels and basically shut his company down. He would have been fired and replaced immediately.

Maybe, he could have spent their "public service money" less on wild life and endangered animals and such. Then put that money towards public service announcements about how the public should choose more fuel efficient cars. Would that have had any significant effect on consumer demand for fossil fuels?

Maybe he could have started a campaign to get rid of coal power plants and replace them with nuclear. Do you think the public would have supported that? Certainly not anywhere that coal is mined.

One of the problems with the left is they always thing there is some huge corporate "villain" out there like on some ridiculous episode of Captain Planet. LOL. The problem with global warning is about supply and demand. People want to be warm in the winter and comfortable in the summer. They want to be able to feed their families and live comfortably. Period. Abundant and cheap energy is what allows them to do all of this. So, unless you're willing to live "off the grid" like a hermit, compost your own feces and use that to grow your own crops then YOU are the closest thing to a villain that exists.

Providing a service or a commodity that the world consumers desperately want is NOT villainous.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Sorry Josh...

If they found out there may be environmental problems and ignored the possibility, it could open a 'whole can of hurt' for them in the future, if they are taken to task about it.

Concern about the future, of our earth, is not a matter of 'right' or 'left'... only referenced so to vilify those concerned and to detract from what could be a real serious problem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The "real serious problem" is that some want to destroy the economies of prosperous countries.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I have no idea of how this will 'shake out', but there could be some serious changes in the not distant future.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

You continue to say that, but my fortune teller says not to worry.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
It will be interesting if these events become bi-weekly: pipe

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64279891

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...and there's a price to pay for these new events... pipe

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-ocean-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

The "real serious problem" is that some want to destroy the economies of prosperous countries.

Including many politicians within those countries.

The other issue as I see it is the value many place on "research" by academia and govt, and mistrust of legitimate work by private industry. Having coordinated a Fortune 50's collegiate "research" program and worked in govt, I wouldn't trust either group to write a coherent report on current technology much less make meaningful predictions of the future.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (dik)

Concern about the future, of our earth, is not a matter of 'right' or 'left'... only referenced so to vilify those concerned and to detract from what could be a real serious problem.

Of course not. I don't think I ever implied that..... All I implied was that the left seems to view corporations that look after their own interests as some comical Captain Planet type villain. Rather than as totally normal people acting in a totally normal and legal way. Exxon is under ZERO obligation to save the earth. Understanding what academics are saying about their product's effect on the environment is not nefarious in any way. Say you (knowing what you know now!) were Exxon CEO back then. What could you have done that would have made a shred of difference in where we are now? The only think I can think of is PSA commercials encouraging energy conservation. Maybe investments in "bio-diesel" research. But, I seriously doubt any of that would have made a lick of difference.

Let's compare this to Ford and GM. Say, that there is a study that says (with a reasonable degree of certainty) something like spending too many hours in a car is bad for your health. What could they do about it? Stop selling cars? No, some other company would just ramp up their production of cars instead. They are not under any obligations to solve this problem. They shouldn't hide it (like tobacco companies did). They can conduct research to better understand why and how this is true.

What about soda companies? They know that sugary drinks contribute to obesity. Should they be responsible for slapping the coke out of a fat person's hand?! No. That person is responsible for his or her own actions. They can offer other beverages that are more healthy and see if consumers want to buy them. But, if consumers do NOT want to buy them what can they do?

Are we the US to blame because we have probably released more CO2 into the air than any other country over the last 100 years? Yes. Of course, China and other countries have now caught up to us. Do we just commit ritualistic hari-kari on our economy and move back to a pure rural economy? Would that even help? The second we move even 10% in that direction, there would be an insurrection and the government would be replaced with a new one that allowed people the freedom to live their lives how they prefer.

My point is there isn't a single "villain" we can point to for AGW. We can certainly make changes that will help:
1) Encourage CO2 free power (like Hydro, Geothermal, Nuclear, Solar, Wind) even if it costs more.
2) Force the most least efficient (by CO2 emissions per MegaWatt of power) sources of energy to be completely replaced by more efficient sources of power.
3) Federal mandates on fuel efficiency in new cars, trucks and such.
4) Encourage other countries to do the same.
5) Impose tariffs on imported goods based on how much CO2 was used to produced them and ship them to the US.
6) Help re-plant areas of the world where forests have been clear cut. We already do that in North America. But, spend some money to figure out how best to do this in the millions of acres of rainforest that have been burned down.
None of these are going to completely solve our problem. But, they will lessen the problem. Then we learn how to mitigate the damages associated with climate change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

Quote (My point is there isn't a single "villain" we can point to for AGW)


It might be that they are all responsible and there does not appear to be a remedy. I just hope it is not as serious as it could be.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

All I implied was that the left seems to view corporations that look after their own interests as some comical Captain Planet type villain.

I think that honest greed would be what you are describing, but commerce is also about trust, so finding out that a company not only knew the truth, but lied and foisted the exact opposite position is a form of evil, and should make everyone trust them less, and trust their product advertisements and their products less. Of course, those who paid attention already knew that companies are in the business of lying, after all, when did most people actually need two entire quarters' area of shampoo to clean their hair? The cigarette companies and Perdue Pharma are examples of public lying about the nonvirtues of their products.

But, the big difference is that while wasting 3/4 of your shampoo purchase is certainly evil, it's not existential, but lying about a potential global calamity is evil at a new level. And let's just say that the "right" is wrong here, and seems to adhere themselves to liars and villains, and I have to wonder where their alleged moral compasses have gone.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Of course there is no remedy if (1) CO2 is the thermostat and (2)70% of the world's population want to live what we call normal lives and (3)we aren't prepared to give them nukes.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Greg, one thing to note about oceans is that there isn't a lot of vertical exchange. Earlier I posted a link to a reference on alternative climate change. The author, in an attempt to include heat in climate models had to make a few assumptions. One of them was to only include the top 1m of oceans in the model. That greatly reduces the size of the sink.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (IRstuff)

but lying about a potential global calamity is evil at a new level.

I'm not surprised that's your position. You were probably a Captain Planet fan growing up and that's why you see them this way. LOL.

For what it's worth, can you point to anything that Exxon specifically said that's "lying about a potential calamity". I think most of the lying on this subject is done by politicians and activists. But, that's just my personal opinion.

Most of the "opposition" to AGW has always been more along the lines of.... "Wow, these claims are serious. How certain can we be about the timeline and the severity of the issues that will occur? Is that degree of certainty worth destroying the global economy? Are there other solutions that would be more reasonable? Other mitigation measures that would be more affordable?"

My stance has always been from an "energy economics" point of view. What's the most cost effective way of reducing CO2 emissions today? Maybe replace all coal power plants with combined cycle gas turbine plants instead? Maybe dramatically expand the use of nuclear power? Let's do THOSE things and do them NOW!!

Oh, wait, the hard core leftists / environmentalists won't let us do that because it's not a PEFECT solution?! Okay, I guess they're not really serious about CO2 reduction. We'll just have to putter along with more expensive, less efficient solutions than aren't very scalable (like solar and wind). We'll just have to continue puttering along until there are perfect solutions, we've made enough small and inefficient changes, or until the consequences become known and all we can do is mitigate.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

Quote (I'm not surprised that's your position.)


...seems like a natural axiom or corollary... it's not a difficult leap. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

"Wow, these claims are serious. How certain can we be about the timeline and the severity of the issues that will occur?

This is the classic gaslighting approach, "I'm just asking questions" kind of thing. I've never seen Captain Planet. The bottom line is that Exxon cut funding on their own climate research and cast shade on climate change https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/science/earth/2... just as you are casting shade by associating anyone who disagrees with you with Captain Planet.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22102015/Exxon-...

Quote:

My stance has always been from an "energy economics" point of view. What's the most cost effective way of reducing CO2 emissions today? Maybe replace all coal power plants with combined cycle gas turbine plants instead? Maybe dramatically expand the use of nuclear power? Let's do THOSE things and do them NOW!!

So, I'll ask my question, "Aren't there unintended consequences?"

You are doing exactly what Exxon Mobil has been doing. I'm hardly a poster child for climate change, and I've not advocated completely dropping fossil fuels; that's your contribution to the negative aspersions. I seriously wonder if you are really anywhere near the right of center position that you've previous claimed.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The main thought-crime Exxon committed (I think) was emphasizing the uncertainty in the science. They picked a climate sensitivity of 3 deg C/doubling for that summary report, with a range of 1.5-4.5. That is, reality could be in error by a factor of 300% depending on which CS you picked for your science.

The IPCC's range for CS is no better despite 32 years of taxpayer funding.

The simple fit for the last 32 years says 2 deg C/doubling.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...water, water, everywhere Part II: pipe

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-alarming-entire-glob...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I guess not everywhere... a possible sign of the future.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2023/01/17/arizona-w...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (IRStuff)

"Aren't there unintended consequences?"

Not sure what you're getting at exactly. Yes, there are always unintended consequences when the government is interfering with the economy. Many times these unintended consequences directly eliminate any benefit intended by said actions. An example for AGW would be the following:

Quote:

In order to lower to carbon footprint of your country, you take actions that dramatically increase costs of manufacturing in your country. Thereby sending all your manufacturing overseas.... in countries where the carbon footprint of manufacturing the same goods is higher (though the cost in todays dollars is dramatically less). Then importing those same goods halfway across the world, thereby increasing the carbon footprint some more.

This is where we are now. My suggestions have been the following:
a) Get rid of coal in the US. Replace with more carbon friendly sources of power. I often say Gas Turbines because these are so relatively easy to build, permit, construct, and they would very dramatically reduce the CO2 footprint for that power.

b) Add tariffs on any imported goods based on various considerations (based on desire to reduce CO2 emissions in other countries).
b1) Any goods that were shipped more than a certain number of miles.
b2) Any goods manufactured in a country, province or state that gets more than x% of power from coal fired power plants.
b3) Any company that intentionally released certain gases that should be cleansed or flared or what not.

c) In a similar way, we could put different tariffs on imports from any country whose human rights record we don't like.
c1) If they don't allow women to vote.
c2) If gay people are imprisoned solely for being gay.
c3) If their constitution calls for the destruction of a particular race of people or a particular country that is part of the UN.

d) Requiring better gas mileage from cars. Any cars that don't have that mileage could be heavily taxed. Maybe those taxes can be used to fund rebates on the CO2 emission friendly cars. I.e. make the people who are buying the worst cars (based on C02 emissions) subsidize the purchases of low emission cars.

There can still be "unintended consequences". No doubt. But, the idea is to leave the market as alone as possible, but to add some extra costs to things that are inefficient and reduce the costs of things that are efficient.

My suggestions are a little bit "protectionist". This is because we know the consequences of these actions will be detrimental to the US consumer. The price of goods (and energy) will go up. But, the idea is to "game the system" in a way that the rest of the world is encouraged to also reduce their carbon emissions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Recycling Lithium ion batteries:

https://www.csagroup.org/wp-content/uploads/CSA-Gr...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (IRstuff)

This is the classic gaslighting approach, "I'm just asking questions" kind of thing.

Not gaslighting at all. Here we have one group of politicians activists saying, "We have special information about what is going to happen over the next 30 years. You need to take actions x, y and z to prevent catastrophe."

Sure, we have a group saying, "Your arguments aren't convincing. Nah, nah, nah.... My fingers are in my ears, I can't hear you." I'll refer to those people who don't believe that a) Global Warming is happening (even if the amount of warming is debatable), b) That atmospheric CO2 levels have been increasing exponentially, primarily due to human activity, c) That the scientific theory tying the two together is very solid.

Then we have another group saying that "anyone opposes actions x, y or z must be viewed as a flat earther, a terrible person. Probably white supremacist too. "

We have another group saying, "The first groups arguments demonstrate that something is happening pretty convincingly. But, the catastrophic effects they claim are not as convincing. Let's talk about the cost of 'mitigation measures' as opposed to only talking about the costs of 'prevention'. After all, those actions (partial prevention in conjunction with mitigation) are much more affordable and realistic.

That last group is the group that I'm in. Instead of calling everyone who disagrees with us evil, let's figure out what affordable actions we can agree to take NOW to help with the issue. Plan for future mitigation as well.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Josh, the EU is proposing a tax rather like your proposal. It is protectionist no doubt, but I agree that manufacturing does not survive in high cost nations without some form of protectionism. 40 years ago Australia had a thriving clothing, shoe, and car manufacturing industries. Tariffs were removed, those industries have all gone, along with their ecosystems. The knock on effect of the car industry going is that the big toolmakers packed up. That meant passenger aircraft maintenance was no longer viable, so that went.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

I'll refer to those people who don't believe that a) Global Warming is happening (even if the amount of warming is debatable), b) That atmospheric CO2 levels have been increasing exponentially, primarily due to human activity, c) That the scientific theory tying the two together is very solid.

Response to a) Yes, the global temperature have been going up, not by as much as the alarmists would like us to believe from their cherry-picked data. Does that prove the temperature will continue to rise? As I said, a trend is only a trend until it's not. We don't know where the global average temperature will go next year, much less in the next century.

Response to b) The vast majority of the rise in atmospheric CO2 is the result of natural processes. In order to make it the result of human activity, you have to prove the 'forcing effect' of our minor contribution, which is still debatable.

Response to c) By the scientific definitions, AGW is not a scientific theory; it is a scientific hypothesis, one with as much evidence that doesn't support it, as evidence that does.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

BridgeSmith -

I mean no disrespect to you. You are free to believe differently than I do. However, I'm amazed that you're quibbling with me over the term "theory" vs "hypothesis". What is a theory, but a collection of hypothesis that join together to explain something?

Others on this forum will come down harder on you for not accepting items b and c of my statement. So, I'll leave that alone.

To all the rest of you, I will suggest that some "protectionist" actions related to AGW (as I have suggested) could still appeal to the BridgeSmith's of the world that don't buy into AGW at all. So, we have the potential to still move forward with collective political will even though we have serious belief and policy differences.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Josh,

Your proposals 17 Jan 1829 would destroy the economy of many developed nations. Yet you rail against government intervention. You can't have it both ways.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I wasn't around in 1829, or even 1929, so I'm not sure what proposals you are referring to.

Regarding government intervention, I think it needs to be done much LESS FREQUENTLY than we currently do it. However, if we want to make any progress on CO2 reduction, we must take some government action. I support actions to make the true cost (including the cost to society) of energy more reflected in the price of energy.

Now, the type of government actions that I prefer usually are more directly related to what their intent is. For example, I love the idea of gasoline taxes paying for the maintenance of our roads and highways. Why? Because that's taxing the people that use the government service. Right?

Building bridges, then charging a toll to anyone who uses them in order to pay off the construction loan and maintenance costs and such. That's great! The people who benefit from the bridge and use it are the ones who pay for it.

Similar things with electricity. Make the consumers of electricity pay for the construction of the plants and their effects. But, since coal has effects on the environment (i.e. something like 10 times the amount of CO2 emissions per MW power generated), it makes sense that this form of power should be dramatically more expensive when compared to other forms of generating power.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

What is a theory, but a collection of hypothesis that join together to explain something?

You should read up on the progression from hypothesis to theory, and the level of experimental evidence that is required to get there, before criticizing me for "quibbling" with you about it. There's not even close to enough congruent evidence for AGW to be considered a scientific theory, and enough evidence against it to raise questions of whether it can still be considered a valid scientific hypothesis.

Quote:

Others on this forum will come down harder on you for not accepting items b and c of my statement.

I invite any reasoned debate on those subjects. I'm open to being convinced that what you asserted are true, but I haven't seen evidence thus far that amounts to more than speculation, conjecture, and alot of assumptions thrown into computer models. The old adage about computers (garbage in; garbage out), still holds true regardless of how 'advanced' the programming may be.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

However, if we want to make any progress on CO2 reduction, we must take some government action.

Before that, we must establish that CO2 reduction is beneficial, warranted, achievable, and affordable.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Josh,

1829, or more correctly 18:29, was the clock time of your post, not the year.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

I invite any reasoned debate on those subjects. I'm open to being convinced that what you asserted are true, but I haven't seen evidence thus far that amounts to more than speculation, conjecture, and alot of assumptions thrown into computer models.

Do you admit that we can predict the surface temperatures of the planets in our solar system that don't have atmosphere? And, that this prediction is pretty darn accurate? I'm talking Mercury, the moon, pluto, any terrestrial objects in our solar system that don't have their own atmosphere. I should point out that this prediction also, includes the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. That's step 1. Pretty hard to deny.

Step 2: would be to then admit that we can also predict the surface temperatures of other planets (the one with atmospheres) based on the gas content in their atmosphere. Mercury (no atmosphere) is half the distance to the sun compared to Venus. Yet, Venus has higher temperatures. It's atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide. Demonstrating a pretty conclusive link between this atmosphere and an increase in temperatures compared to what a planet without an atmosphere would have. You can do similar things with Mars which has a VERY thin atmosphere (1% the pressure of ours).

Step 3: This step would be to look at the ice core data for the past few thousand years and admit that it shows a precipitous increase in atmospheric CO2 in the last hundred or so years. Same thing with the Mauna Loa data. Admit that this is a pretty strong indictor that there is a lot more CO2 in our air than there was 100 years ago.

Step 4: Did humans cause the increase in CO2, or was it natural. Or, is it a bit of both. See below link for the billions of tons of CO2 that are released each year from human activity. That 37 Billion tons each year. Just from fossil fuels.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-...

Also, we must admit that the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels has different carbon isotopes (or ratios of isotopes) than that release by regular plants. So, we can have a pretty good idea of how this (ratio of carbon isotopes) has changed over the last 50 years or more. This makes a pretty convincing case that fossil fuel emissions are a MAJOR source of the increased CO2. Make sense? Any major problems with my logic so far?

That's really all it takes for me to believe that there has been a man made change to the atmosphere in terms of CO2 content. And, that the CO2 changes are likely to cause some increase in temperature.

Now, I'm a skeptical person. So, I don't take the "fear mongering" of the alarmists very well. I believe in the basic premise that they're claiming. But, to move from their basic claims to catastrophe is a reach for me. However, I definitely see significant risk should we continue down the path exactly as we are. I feel they have made that case effectively and now I am more interested in how to handle our "solutions" in a way that doesn't kill more people than the original disease.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Step 2 relies on the same albedo.

Step 5 the CO2 effect saturates at very low ppm, we are now seeing the effect of ovrloading the filter shape and just looking at the shoulders of the reponse (hence the dependence on doubling)

Step 6 there are far stronger and faster effects on short and long term temperature, especially the greenhouse effect of water vapor, and many transport and albedo effects of H20. 80% of the greenhouse effect is water vapor, we have no way of knowing how that has changed, anthropogenically or not.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (GregLocock)

Step 5 the CO2 effect saturates at very low ppm, we are now seeing the effect of ovrloading the filter shape and just looking at the shoulders of the response (hence the dependence on doubling)

That's certainly a possibility. I think there is enough "uncertainty" associated with the predictions that we probably shouldn't be committing economic suicide in order to prevent what we probably can't prevent anyway.

However, I would suggest that the it's also possible that we haven't seen the full effect yet and that it might get worse. There is soooo much normal variation in temperatures that it takes decades to see even a small amount of change above normal variations.

I am plenty willing to consider that there are other effects as well. Water Vapor, particulate carbon and such.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Do you admit that we can predict the surface temperatures of the planets in our solar system that don't have atmosphere?

Predicting the surface temperature of a planet with no atmosphere is easy. All the gases, particulates, etc. and most of all, the varying levels and positions of water vapor swirling around in unpredictable patterns in our atmosphere is what makes prediction of temperatures on Earth virtually impossible.

Quote:

Step 2: would be to then admit that we can also predict the surface temperatures of other planets (the one with atmospheres) based on the gas content in their atmosphere.

I haven't seen evidence that we can accurately make those predictions, or even that there's a rational model that matches the surface temperatures of those planets. As far as I know, we don't have any idea what the surface temperature of Venus actually is, and if that's true, any models we have are worthless, because their accuracy cannot be verified.

Quote:

Step 4: Did humans cause the increase in CO2, or was it natural. Or, is it a bit of both. See below link for the billions of tons of CO2 that are released each year from human activity. That 37 Billion tons each year. Just from fossil fuels.

37 Billion tons sounds like alot, but as a percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere, is it really? Look it up and get back to us.

Quote:

Any major problems with my logic so far?

In addition to what I wrote above, plants don't release CO2; they absorb it.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Plants actually do release CO2. They respirate at night when they are not doing photosynthesis. Gotta keep that electron transport chain going 24/7.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Sorry, CO2 is certainly not released by plants (except when they decompose). I was thinking about the plant / animal respiration cycle. That comment was meant as a lead in towards talking about rainforest de-forestation and how that contributes to CO2 increases (because major sources of carbon storage have been removed or weakened).

37 Billion tons of CO2 represents about 0.01% of the weight of all the CO2 in the atmosphere of the entire earth. So, in 10 years it will have increased the CO2 by 0.1%. It's not astronomically large. But, it's not insignificant. Especially if you add it up over a 100 years as it continues to increase.

Here's my math (on how the 37 billion tons of CO2 emissions compare to the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere):

If we take the highest measured concentration of CO2 as 410.28 ppmv, the percentage content would be equal to 0.041028%.

0.041028% (CO2 atmosphere volume) * 28.971 g/mole (average molar mass of dry air) / 44.0087 g/mole (CO2). This will give us 0.0623240117 as the mass percentage of CO2 for the atmosphere.

Then I get, from another source, that the total weight of the earth's atmosphere is about 5.5 quadrillion metric tons. Though this might include a significant weight from water vapor.

Total weight of atmosphere * mass percentage CO2 / weight of the CO2 that is released each year.
(5.5*10^15) * 0.062324 / (37*10^9) = 0.011%

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Then you do agree that we should not commit economic suicide because of predictions that may be wrong, and all to prevent something which we probably can't prevent anyway. I agree, but a lot don't.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Yes. Reasonable mitigation measures should be tried. But, there's no way anyone is committing economic suicide. If the dems try, they will get voted out of office so fast, it will make their heads spin.

Same things will happen in the UK and China and India and everywhere else. If I've got the choice between feeding my family today, vs taking a risk 20 years down the road, we're all going to make the same decision. Regardless of what Greta T, Al G, or John K tell us from their towers of "purity"..... just not going to happen. It goes completely against human nature.

However, there are plenty of things we can do to move in the right direction. Small, but meaningful steps that will make the problem less severe and reduce the cost of mitigation when the time comes.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

Quote (If I've got the choice between feeding my family today,)


...and what happens if you have a massive dought, and millions cannot feed their families. I wonder what sort of political effect that will have?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Your decision, dik. I know what mine is. I don't live my life based on speculation.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

When (or if) that happens, then those people and those places will take action. I'm not sure what type of action we're talking about. It might be war. It might be developing new sources of water / irrigation. I don't know. But, when there is a clear problem (drought), then people will act.

The problem we have right now is we have a nebulous problem, "global warming". Does it mean there could be some flooding somewhere at some time? Sure. But, we don't know when and we don't really know where. Maybe they'll be drought too. But, we don't know when, we don't know where.

If you want me to stop feeding my family today and tomorrow because of some vague promise of future misery, that's a pretty hard sell. Not many people are going to be willing to do that.

Now, we might be willing to tighten our belts a bit and make some minor sacrifices. Like gradually increasing the price of certain energy and lowering the price of other energy so that we don't produce so much CO2 when we cool are house in the summer. I'm getting solar panels installed on my roof right now. It's a pretty big expenditure. But, I think it's worth it in the long run. In the short run (over the next 7 years that I'll be paying off the loan), it will be a major drain on our monthly income.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...if you look at the deforestation of the rain forests and other tracts of timbers... it may be that trees will have an overall negative impact on the carbon footprint.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

I'm getting solar panels installed on my roof right now. It's a pretty big expenditure. But, I think it's worth it in the long run. In the short run (over the next 7 years that I'll be paying off the loan), it will be a major drain on our monthly income.

That's you choosing to do something that's in your own best interest. That's different than the government, say, banning natural gas appliances. If installing solar panels had a payback period longer than the life of the panels, so it was a cost to you, rather than an investment, would you still be doing it?

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

That's different than the government, say, banning natural gas appliances. If installing solar panels had a payback period longer than the life of the panels, so it was a cost to you, rather than an investment, would you still be doing it?

Probably not. I don't have enough disposable income to make it worth the added expense. If I were rich and wanted to feel better about my carbon footprint, then I might have. But, I'm not.

Personally, I'm not quite convinced about the numbers they claim I'll see in 20+ years.... that's when previous generations of solar panels started really breaking down. But, I think it will be worth it overall. Especially with the government rebate that I'll see on my taxes next year.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Probably not. I don't have enough disposable income to make it worth the added expense. If I were rich and wanted to feel better about my carbon footprint, then I might have. But, I'm not.
The rest of us feel the same way. When you suggest "gradually increasing the price of certain energy", we feel like we're having those extra costs forced upon us, because we are. Btw, that part about "lowering the price of other energy" is not possible. There's no way to decrease the price of energy below it's natural level, without subsidizing it, which means you lower the price, you just made someone else pay for it.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

You can talk about replacing energy with energy all you want but we must first assess the true cost of each energy first. Obviously natural gas has a low CO2 footprint than coal. That's fine. I won't bite on other solutions until someone can demonstrate the benefit. And then they must demonstrate the benefit over other uses for the money. Carbon capture is an example of throwing money to the wind, literally.

Did anybody hear Al Gore's speech today? I won't comment.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The only currently available, expandable, carbon-neutral energy source with a true cost less than fossil fuels, is nuclear. The modern nuclear reactor systems are very safe (especially Thorium reactors), and would allow reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel (that radioactive nuclear waste sitting around at all of the nuclear power plants), dramatically reducing its volume and radioactivity.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Tipping points...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBKZWKeKYqE

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Btw, that part about "lowering the price of other energy" is not possible. There's no way to decrease the price of energy below it's natural level, without subsidizing it, which means you lower the price, you just made someone else pay for it.

There are plenty of ways to lower the price of energy. For example, CA puts all kinds of additional restrictions on refineries over what type of gasoline they must produce. This dramatically increases the cost of gasoline in CA. Eliminate those unnecessary regulations and the price goes down. Not below the "natural" level, of course.

However, that's not what I was talking about. What I was talking about was direct subsidies from one type of power to another. If we're saying that coal is bad (because it produces so much more CO2 per MW of power produced) then the extra taxes that coal pays goes directly to subsidize the cost of building CO2 free nuclear plants.

We're saying there is a price to society for emitting too much CO2. So, if you want the cost of power to better include that cost this is the way to do it. Force the more problematic power to pay for its own replacement. Once we've done that with coal, then we decide what to do next. It might be similar. Tax the most inefficient power plants (in terms of CO2 emissions) and use those taxes to again pay for nuclear (solar and wind as well, if you like).

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Maybe, people will have to 'cut back' on their use of it, too? Things may not remain as they are. ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

We're saying there is a price to society for emitting too much CO2.

I'm saying that's an unproven assumption, and as such, we shouldn't be interfering in the free market price of any energy sources.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I disagree... if something is harmful, then the use of it should be controlled and regulated. It's not happening yet, but could happen in future. I have no idea of how extreme climate change can be.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

if something is harmful, then the use of it should be controlled and regulated.

The key word there is "if". We haven't established that global temperatures will go up, and if they do go up, on the whole, it will be harmful to humans or the planet.

It's been shown mathematically that adapting to climate change, whatever direction it goes, will be far less expensive than the measures proposed to stop the Earth from warming. Why would we spend more on attempted prevention of something that may not happen, rather than dealing with the realities and challenges as they present themselves, so that we know what we need to do.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

You admit it, you have no idea.

BridgeSmith is correct. Interfering with the free market inevitably causes unforeseen consequences.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

I'm saying that's an unproven assumption, and as such, we shouldn't be interfering in the free market price of any energy sources.

That's fair enough. That's your belief. I think there are plenty of us who are more concerned about this issue. Therefore, at this point, it's a matter of public and political opinion. If enough of us have a similar belief they we will take some actions. I just hope they are rational and reasonable actions and not "green new deal" type actions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

It's been shown mathematically that adapting to climate change, whatever direction it goes, will be far less expensive than the measures proposed to stop the Earth from warming.

Do you have a reference for this?

Note: I tend to agree that "mitigation" measures for the problems that do occur are a lot more efficient than trying to stop a nebulous event or action from occurring. However, there are certainly some lower cost actions that we can take today (and that we are already taking today) that we should continue in the hopes of avoiding the worst aspects of global warming.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
I think we are beyond the 'if' stage... it's just a matter of finding out what the end result will be, and if we can mitigate it. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Hokie... you forgot to read to the end of the sentence, "I have no idea of how extreme climate change can be."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Given that there is now a climate change attribution group who have taken it upon themselves to generate a sciency sounding link between any newsworthy weather event and climate change you can look forward to many more headlines designed to make little girls wet their pants.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

"...headlines designed to make little girls wet their pants"

A la Paul R. Ehrlich types over the past 70 years. Play it again, Sam. Just plug in the current hysteria to generate fear. The "experts" are on the dole with grants so they will parrot the party line and hockey stick the model outputs.

Mean while, Gore, Obama and Kerry build mansions on the sea shore that the "experts" are warning will be flooded in 7 years from the ice caps melting due to warming caused by burning FFs and farting cows.

The emperor has no clothes!

Skip,

glassesJust traded in my OLD subtlety...
for a NUance!tongue

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

Quote (Interfering with the free market inevitably causes unforeseen consequences.)


...and, as we have observed, laissez faire capitalism may have a similar effect. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Real lassez-faire capitalism has never been tried.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

My parents live in Santa Cruz. The storms were so bad their dog enjoyed the aftermath.



The storm was so bad the President of the United States required a visit. The beach had to be steamrolled. Did they file an EIR?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

It's nice that with all the work they need to do, they had time to make that beach nice and smooth, so POTUS wouldn't trip during his useless the photo op.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...and down under, too.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64440319

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
...and as the number of buildings you design increases, the greater chance for a collapse. Funny how these extraordinary events seem to occur more and more often. I was thinking it was just an improvement on measuring things, but I'm not so sure anymore. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Dam, we made it eight days. I wouldn't have guessed it'd be that long. I owe myself a paczki.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
The real concerns about climate change: pipe

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/01/30/climate-chan...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

In "Stupid Global Warming News":

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/world/global-warmin...

TLDR Summary: A study used artificial neural networks – a type of machine learning or artificial intelligence – to predict when the world would hit 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I wonder what the CO2 footprint of this thread is?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
It shows where the 'real' concerns are... sad...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

We'll see. So far most of the alarmist predictions have failed. Unless the models take a big step forward in accuracy then they're as much use as ChatGPT's simulation of a bouncing ball which got higher on successive bounces. When I pointed out that that was impossible it suggested adding damping to improve the fit - just like a climate 'scientist'. The actual correct solution was more complicated.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Greg... we're not out of this, yet... We'll have to find out if there is anything to be alarmed about.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Since we aren't doing anything effective then CO2 will rise and rise, and even with the laboratory value of climate sensitivity due to CO2 (1.2 degC/2CO2), we'll see 1.6+/-0.6 of temperature increase by 2100 if the CO2 rises at 4ppm/y on average. If you can keep it to 2.8 ppm/y then you get about 0.2 less.

So whatever happens it is going to get warmer, adaptation will be both cheaper and less painful than any serious and politically impossible reduction in CO2 production. Silly targets like 50% net zero by 2030 are just politics, they aren't achievable, and attempts to meet them without proper planning will just cause waste and chaos.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The climate will change, always has. Perhaps we are having an effect on it. But we can adapt to whatever happens. Adaptation is the answer, not the foolish demolition of the world economy in the name of "doing something".

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Good points. But, I will point out the following:
a) There are relatively cheap and easy methods to slow down the increase by taking measures today. They won't stop the warming. But, slow it down to the point where it's easier to adapt to as it occurs. I'm talking about eliminating coal power plants. I'm talking about switching to nuclear, etc.

b) Adaptation will likely be cheaper for most places. But, that may not be feasible in some areas. Some places will become unlivable. Maybe because they're just too hot in the summer months. Maybe because of rise in sea levels.

c) We're also not the only ones on the planet. We might really damage the rest of the animal populations which, in general, would not be able to adapt in that time frame. It is possible that many animals will have to migrate to other lands, may die off or greatly reduce in number. Whole eco systems could be dramatically affected. All of these things could affect our ability to mass produce food at a rate to support our population.

I'm not predicting "the end of the world" like the AOC types tend to. I'm not even saying that this is a true "existential crisis" like the Gen Z folks have been led to believe. But, there is a middle ground here that exists between "there's nothing to worry about, we're better off ignoring the whole concept" and "we're all going to die in 20 years if we don't cripple our economy today".

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)
Like a carnival, "...round and round, she goes... where she stops, nobody knows." The downside is that we are in new territory and no one knows how this will end. The last few years could be a precursor to the future, and it could get a lot worse.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2356654-earth...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/3...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

They won't stop the warming. But, slow it down to the point where it's easier to adapt to as it occurs.

It's speculation, not fact, that slowing our output of CO2 will slow the warming of the planet. There's also only hypotheses predicting that the warming will continue, as opposed to the current warming being part of a cycle that could take a downturn at any time.

Quote:

I'm talking about eliminating coal power plants. I'm talking about switching to nuclear, etc.

Those are not cheap and easy methods, certainly not in the short term. shuttering a coal fired power plant that still has many years of service life left, and building a new plant of some other type, is a huge waste of resources and a significant cost to the customers of the utility.

I agree with building nuclear power plants. We have to get past the fearmongering about nuclear power plants. All the major incidents with nuclear power were at plants built in the 70s (or before) with mostly 60s era 'electronics' in the control and monitoring systems. Modern plants, especially the Thorium reactors coupled to breeder reactors, are very safe, in all aspects. That includes not only making nuclear waste from the reactor that could be used in a dirty bomb inaccessible, but also providing the ability to reprocess existing nuclear waste, drastically reducing its volume and radioactivity.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

"They won't stop the warming. But, slow it down" ... "It's speculation, not fact, that slowing our output of CO2 will slow the warming" ...

I agree, IF CO2 is driving the climate change, then lowering it is "better".

I think it's reasonable to think that our CO2 is having some impact on the environment, so reducing it is "better".
But making everything more expense (as the cost of energy goes up) isn't helping the bulk of humanity

But I see the current situation as an agenda for a subset of humanity to impose control over the rest. And if their measures don't change the climate trajectory significantly it won't be "I guess we were wrong, sorry" but "we were too late, if only you had listened".

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote:

Those are not cheap and easy methods, certainly not in the short term. shuttering a coal fired power plant that still has many years of service life left, and building a new plant of some other type, is a huge waste of resources and a significant cost to the customers of the utility.

Actually, it is pretty cheap and easy. Shutting down a coal plant is really easy. It emits something like 10 times the amount of CO2 as gas turbines do (per mega watt of power produced). So, just shutting one down an replacing it with a combined cycle gas turbine would be pretty darn quick and easy. I should point out the lead time to engineer and build a gas turbine plant is not very long (less than 1/10th the time it would take nuclear plant to get built).

And, the power from gas turbines is no more than a coal plant. Probably less.

The idea of expanding nuclear takes political will, which we don't really have right now. But, if we had the will to do it then it's cheap, clean, CO2 free and very, very safe. The biggest problem is the lead time and the politics of it. The green extremists (the same ones most concerned about global warming) will fight it every step of the way.

But, all of these expenses when added together will be fractions of what our government spends subsidizing solar panels on rich people's homes, or giving rebates to rick people when they buy a Tesla. And, the benefit goes to everyone, not just the virtue signaling, latte sipping rick liberals.

My biggest complaint is that we are wasting all kinds of tax payer money on programs that are VERY inefficient in terms of their ability to reduce CO2 emissions per dollar spent.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I think the problem is shutting down the CFPP means shutting down the coal mines ... which means employment, unions, politics, ...

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Sorry Josh, the carbon intensity of gas turbines is about half that of coal plants. I'm not saying a 50% reduction isn't worth having but itisn't the easy complete solution either.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/ful...

The political issue is that the first world is practically irrelevant, the increase in CO2 output is driven by China, India and other 'developing' nations (Indonesia is big and has lots of poor quality coal, for example, so when they industrialise what are they going to use?), so you have to put your nukes there.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Coal will remain a part of the power mix for years to come. Maybe not in all countries, but some.

Take the case of Australia, for example. A large emitter of CO2 per capita, as dik likes to point out, but an insignificant emitter globally.

Australia has an almost limitless amount of quality coal which is easily mined, and depends mostly on coal for its power. It also has gas, mostly coal seam gas, but not so much.

So a mixture of power sources, including coal, gas, wind, solar. What's notably missing? Nuclear, for a variety of reasons, but mostly because the same types (Extinction Rebellion and others) who call for all coal plants to be shut down immediately are the very ones who protest so heavily against nuclear power. Politicians listen to the squeaky wheel, so no nuclear plants will be built in Australia for the foreseeable future.

Then there are countries which have to import their power feedstock. Japan, China, India, etc. They get it from the most reliable and economical source, Australia. The market will rule, in spite of government intervention or international protocols.

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The "green extremists" don't like natural gas either, and if they succeed in getting rid of oil drilling, natural gas will get much more expensive, because much of the natural gas production is a 'by-product' of oil drilling. Of course, many of the 'greenies' don't realize how many things they use every day that come from oil, including most of the materials used to make the wind turbines and electric cars they love so much. Guess what they're using to heat the generators on the wind turbines right now so they don't get damaged from the cold? You guessed it - fossil fuels.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

I think part of the problem is that adversarial countries such as Russia and China do not have their own large industrial gas turbine manufacturers. The market is dominated by Siemens and GE. We saw how that affected one of Russia's gas compressors recently.

Perhaps a turbine manufacturer could license the technology to China so they can steal it and start building their own units instead of coal.

That would be an indirect way to cut the world's CO2 production.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

The "green extremists", with their gallon or so a second jet planes, are worried about exhaust gases? Sure

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Greg -

I recall looking this up awhile ago and finding out that the difference was huge. But, I can't find the sources I read back then.

However, the following article suggests it's more like 7.5 to 1.0 . However, that's with post production carbon capture.... maybe that's not implemented yet? And, closer to the 2 to 1 that you suggested without carbon capture for the gas turbines.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...

Also, the numbers I looked at recently suggest that China (while rapidly increasing their CO2 emissions) actually has a lot of low CO2 emission power as well. I certainly agree that places like China (as well as India and others) are a major issue with slowing down CO2 output. That's mostly because of a rapidly expanding economy. Not because their power is any less clean than ours. It's more because their economy is expanding so quickly that power demand is increasing so dang fast.

https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix


Hokie -

Quote:

Take the case of Australia, for example. A large emitter of CO2 per capita, as dik likes to point out, but an insignificant emitter globally.

Australia, as I understand it has dramatically moved away from coal power in recent years. And, plans to do even more of that over the next decade. Though they are still extracting their coal and selling it to other nations for power.

This is some of the goofiness of these policies. So, their energy prices will go up (because coal is so plentiful in Aus) when they shut down those plants. But, they will digging up the same amount of coal (probably more) and shipping it off to other countries instead. The result will be a net increase in the CO2 emissions per ton of coal extracted.... because of the cost of shipping that coal to china or india or where ever. I think the Australian government (if they're really serious about reducing CO2 emissions) needs to tax that coal extraction to subsidize their cleaner energy. Reducing the costs for the consumers of clean energy and increasing the costs for consumers of coal energy.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/mark...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

(OP)

Quote (I certainly agree that places like China (as well as India and others) are a major issue with slowing down CO2 output.)


China's per capita carbon is half the US and India's is about 1/10. They get blamed because their larger population yields a greater footprint. It's the political thing to do... and is an excuse for not doing anything. No one seems to be doing much about climate change, and we'll likely have to see how things will change. Once they start changing, there may be no turning back.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

dik,

Your LP is stuck.

Josh,

Don't worry about that. Australian governments, both at national and state level, have never seen a tax they didn't like. Queensland, where I live and where most of the coal is extracted, has just increased its royalty/tax so that the highest value coal will be taxed at 40%.

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/soaring-price...'s%20previous%20coal%20royalty%20regime,prices%20above%20%24150%20a%20tonne.&text=The%20new%20system%20introduces%20three,prices%20above%20%24300%20a%20tonne.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Stupid is as stupid does.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

What we should really be doing is converting coal plants to run on plastic. They have the ability to deal with the ash, they can burn pellets but I think high pressure injection of filaments into the furnace will reduce particulates. Scrubbers can be used to filter out acid gasses so we can burn those forever plastics into oblivion as well. This is an unpopular opinion but is a real path forward to reducing pollution.

Common plastics have better hydrogen to carbon ratios than coal. The CO2 emissions from burning plastic will be lower than coal and the CO2 emissions will be more beneficial than recycling plastic. It's a double win.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

Quote (GregLocock)

So they train the neural network on models which are known to run hot, and then predict it'll get hotter sooner than we thought. Do you realise how utterly stupid that is?

I'm glad someone finally commented on my linked article. That article is the epitome of stupid global warming reporting. Why would a Neural Network be better than the model built by and expert? Do the reporters really not understand that neural networks cannot think for themselves? They must be trained to think.... They will think whatever you want them to think based on the input your force them to learn.

That was truly some of the dumbest reporting I've reporting I've ever read.

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