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Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI
10

Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Is this series of threads actually generating any useful discussion or information

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Yup...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

For what its worth, if mental gymnastics ever becomes an olympic sport, these threads would be prime scouting grounds

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (SwinnyGG)

Is this series of threads actually generating any useful discussion or information

Are you asking about how much it's generating per capita thread? Or the sum total?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (bradrs)

Are you asking about how much it's generating per capita thread? Or the sum total?

Amazingly, the value is the same either way.

- Andrew

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

0 does, after all, equal zero

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Skinny)

Dik cares about per capita

Only when measuring CO2 emissions, as it makes China look better, and countries like US look worse.

When Dik is comparing renewable energy, he happily uses totals.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (This question makes me wonder if you actually understand the volumes- emissions by China are nearly triple the US. Triple.)


I'm looking at the per capita values; these don't penalize a country for their large populations and are representative of individual usage. China has a population of 5x the US. It's easy to say I'm not going to do anything because they are doing worse... third world countries will suffer because of the excesses of others.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You penalize a country for its leadership which is representative of its population.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (When Dik is comparing renewable energy, he happily uses totals.)


If you look at renewable energy China still isn't doing too bad... if you look at the increase in renewable energy over the last 40 years, they are miles ahead, whether per capita or as a total. They've gone from almost nothing to a huge amount. The US has only doubled theirs.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

who is building more coal power stations ? who is burning more coal (if not now then in the near future) ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Didn't the Chinese build a dam that caused the rotation of the Earth to slow? Talk about climate change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Dik, the US is ahead of China on renewable energy per capita.

How about choosing one metric and one time frame to compare countries, rather than chopping and changing, and cherry picking whichever metric and timeframe happens to favour China in each particular instance.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

China is building or has planned 140 W of coal power stations per capita. If you say that's over 10 years that's +14W per capita per year. Australia is closing 8W of coal power stations per capita per year.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Yes they might be, but in the last 40 years, China has inreased their renewable energy by 30x whereas the US has only increased their renewable energy by 2.1x... big difference... even on a per capita basis. They are far ahead of the game.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You were just saying that China had almost no renewable energy a short time ago and now they have 30 times more. That's still zero.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Hurricanes

The ever reliable NYT claims

Hurricane Ian “rapidly transformed from a relatively weak storm into a strong one, [a] phenomenon that has become more common” due to climate change.

It also said, “Ian embodies several of the major hurricane trends in recent years, as the world copes with the effects of climate change. It’s a strong storm — and strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean, as its surface water has warmed.”


This bloke Neil L. Frank, Ph.D., Meteorology, was the longest-serving Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987) before becoming Chief Meteorologist of KHOU-TV, Houston, TX, until his retirement in 2008, since when he has continued his research on hurricanes independently, disagrees.

What we do know is that hurricanes were at least as frequent and powerful before the current period of global warming as they have been during it — indeed, we know they were actually more frequent and more powerful.

Climate-change activists and the mainstream media are wrong. There has not been an increase in the frequency, intensity, or speed of intensification of Atlantic hurricanes in the past several decades. You might clue your representatives in Congress about that so they won’t be so likely to cater to alarmists.


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Energy from coal, in recent years... China produces about half the worlds 'coal power' and seems to be fairly uniform over these years. I could not find anything that shows a long term useage.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Hurricane season has been pretty light this year... added info below. I guess there are differing opinions.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/9/28/2...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Dik)

even on a per capita basis. They are far ahead of the game.

They are not. The US produces more renewable power per capita than China.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Yes... the US does right now... but, if you look at the growth in the last 40 years China has increased their renewable power by a factor of 30 whereas the US has only increased it by a factor of 2.1. Forty years ago China's renewable power output was approx 10% of the US. As time progressed, China matched the total US renewable power output (not per capita) in 2012 and nearly doubled it by 2019, a short 7 years. They are rapidly moving ahead.

The crux if the matter is that all countries have to dramatically reduce their carbon footprint and at the same time have to dramatically increase their renewable power output.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (They are not.)


This was based on the rate of change...being roughtly 15x the US, or per capita roughly 3x.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

dik, I worry about you. There are statistics, then damn statistics. You seem always to look for ones glorifying China, and that makes me distrust and ignore your posts. Enough said.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

This was based on the rate of change

Why not use recent rate of change when measuring CO2 emissions then? Oh, that's right, because in that instance it would make China look bad to use recent rate of change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I am using the most recent values I could find. Can you provide me with a more recent source?

I'm not glorifying China... it appears they are doing pretty good based on the numbers I've encountered. All data indicates that they have about 1/2 the per capita carbon footprint as the US. Their coal component is higher, but less than others. People say they are 'spiking' in coal usage, but I've not encountered any numbers. Even the recent post I made that shows them leading the pack for coal seems pretty flat for the last few years. I don't know what their future consumption brings. They seem to be leading in renewable resources... There's not much more to add. People focus on China's use of coal (a downright ugly carbon product) but it is only part of their footprint. The US far exceeds them with oil and gas usage. The data I'm using is the most recent I can find, and it is peer reviewed. If you or Tom have peer reviewed data that is more recent, please post me a link. I'd be happy to look at it.

I think they are maligned so that Western governments can use them as an excuse for not wanting to do anything. I see how fast the governments are acting on this real serious problem.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (China look bad to use recent rate of change.)


Not at all Tom, when it comes to renewable resources they are way out front at bringing them on line... as I noted in the last 40 years they have increased their on line renewable resources by a factor of 30, while the US has only increased their on line renewable resources by a factor of 2 in the same time period. They've done a lot in the last 40 years...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Incredible site... just to 2020 data. Can get data for a large number of countries and can download a *.csv file.

https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel#per-c...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Neat site, Greg... will take a closer gander... They do not appear to be a government organisation or academic one. Do they have any creds? From their site:



Contrary to other information, their coal usage seems to be going in the right direction... will take a closer look.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
and more from China.









total carbon from China 10.67 B tonnes for a population of 1490 million. and from the US is 4.71 B tonnes for a populalation of 331 million. This gives a per capita carbon footprint of 7.41 for China compared to one of 14.23 for the US, or again, about half... Just out of curiosity, should we be looking at the cumulative amount... the area under the curve? Dunno... ponder



So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Dik)

I'm looking at the per capita values; these don't penalize a country for their large populations and are representative of individual usage.

Are you able to at least acknowledge that changing which type of statistic - cumulative value or per capita rate - you prefer to use, with the data you present always appearing to support the idea that China is good, appears disingenuous?

I've watched this debate now for weeks. Whatever your motivation is, from the perspective of an outsider who doesn't really care, you absolutely do not appear to be giving an impartial opinion based on data alone.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

Neat site, Greg... will take a closer gander... They do not appear to be a government organisation or academic one. Do they have any creds?

Neither of those two things contribute to credibility.

Quote (dik)

Contrary to other information, their coal usage seems to be going in the right direction... will take a closer look.

What are you looking at? Your graphs show China's coal consumption ratio is going down not because they're burning less coal, instead they're burning more oil and gas in addition to the coal.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Swinny)


Are you able to at least acknowledge that changing which type of statistic - cumulative value or per capita rate

If only there were just two. There’s a full suite of metrics being employed here:

*Total
*Per Capita
*Total increase
*Per Capita increase
*Total increase relative to 20 years ago
*Etc

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Leads me to coin a new acronym, CDS, Climate Derangement Syndrome.

Can be used interchangeably to mean Carbon Derangement Syndrome.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Per capita is nonsense. Getting back to WWI per capita is in striking distance but no per capita advocate would be happy because still 5x absolute.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Per capita is not nonsense... it puts the focus on the individual contribution to climate change, and makes a correction for countries with large populations. India's carbon footprint is up there, and they are cited for being terrible. But based on their huge population their carbon footprint, per person, is about 1/10 that of the US.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

They also poop in the streets in India. I'd rather have a carbon footprint...

Dik, please give us examples of how you have reduced your per capita emissions as you have direct control over those. Otherwise please don't guilt us about our per capita emissions which we don't have direct control over.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Per capita by country isn't the individual. It's just a different measure by country. Do it by physical size of country for a better match to the actual problem.

Restated: make large populations take 'individual' responsibility for their large populations.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It's a measure of the individual output... it not exact... Jimmy can be more resourceful than Fred... it's the best way to approximate the efficiency at controlling that. A resource concious country will have a smaller carbon footprint thanf one that isn't. It's also a meand of keeping track of how a country progresses with an increasing population and accommodates that.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

A resource conscious country would look at the total. An irresponsible country would refuse to face up to its irresponsible population size.

For myself, I advocate for sustainable population size in Australia. Both political parties are against that though. So much for individual responsibility - not actually possible without true revolution.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You also need to correct for exported and imported emissions. Sanctimonious western countries that import Chinese steel and aluminium are driving up China's CO2 emissions (and GDP) while reducing their own CO2 emissions, yet they are the ones deriving the benefit from the material. Wind turbines and solar cells are good examples of this.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

@Smoulder ... "I advocate for sustainable population size in Australia" ... and what is a sustainable population ? and what do you do to the surplus ??

@greg ... and Australia should take responsibility for shipping coal to China. Sure, I understand the economic and political suicide that would mean (ie stopping mining coal).
But if Coal is the worst FF, then maybe the first step is to stop using it ? that is if we are serious about this CO2 "thing".

my personal take is ...
1) climate change is real, (of course it is, when has the climate been static ?)
2) climate change is way more complicated (than a single issue, like CO2),
3) Almost whatever we do about CO2 is unlikely to have much significant impact on climate (within centuries).
4) There are so many other ways that humans are impacting the environment, that we need to be equally aware of.
5) whether or not CO2 and FF are responsible for climate change, we should still be sensitive to our impact on the environment.
6) we can rearrange our lifestyles to reduce CO2, whether it has a real impact or not.
7) I don't want the government rearranging my lifestyle, overtly. I know they are manipulating things (with taxes and subsidies and ...).

I wonder if cavemen worried about climate change (as the glaciers melted) ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Dik, what have you done to reduce your carbon footprint?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
About 30 years back, I quit driving for 12 years, prompted by my children, because it wasn't essential for the work I did. I used public transportation and GO Train to travel from Oshawa to Toronto. I had to take up driving again because my work status changed and I had to travel. I quit driving about 5 years back and use public transportation, or walk. I don't travel much, either nationally and internationally. I just recently (a month or two back) took my portable air conditioner down to the basement, not to be used again. I've very conscious of the use of plastics and plastic waste. Paper and paper waste. Nearly all my work is digital, not paper. When shopping, I use my backpack and four cloth shopping bags. All the bulbs in the house are LED, with the exception of 1. I also keep the house 'cool'; I don't like high temperatures anyway... not much, but it helps.

Manitoba is quite fortunate; nearly all our power is hydro, which is one of the greenest forms of power generation.

Most important is that my children and grand children have a similar approach and outlook', as noted in the tagline I copied from one of my son's eMails.

What do you do?' ponder

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
rb... I like your list, and concur with everything but item 5. There is a clear correlation between climate change and the CO2 footprint. Mayby item 3... If we don't do anything, it could likely get a lot worse. Unfortunately, we have no idea of what our current actions will cause.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Added problems for some coastal areas:

""Many of these fast-subsiding coastal cities are rapidly expanding megacities, where... high demands for groundwater extraction and loading from densely constructed building structures, contribute to local land subsidence," the study says.

Sinking cities are not of themselves a result of climate change, but researchers said their work would give a better insight into how the phenomenon would "compound the effects of climate-driven mean sea-level rise".

More than one billion people will live in coastal cities at risk of rising sea levels by 2050, according to UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-asian-coastal-cities...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (Didn't the Chinese build a dam that caused the rotation of the Earth to slow?)


Based on last timing... the rotation has increased a tad, if you recall. pipe

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

About 30 years back, I quit driving for 12 years, prompted by my children, because it wasn't essential for the work I did. I used public transportation and GO Train to travel from Oshawa to Toronto.

That's a funny example. 30 years ago cars had strict emissions controls including catalytic converters. Fuel efficiency was also very high by then.

Instead, you chose to ride around in a diesel powered emissions exempt bus spewing particulates and nitrogen oxides. At the same time, I'll bet the bus was seldom full or I doubt you would be so willing to ride it. I ask, were you really reducing your footprint?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
They still polluted... even back then... they were much dirtier than today. Cars have improved, but not enought... many still have a big carbon footprint. Yes I do... because most bus traffic going into Toronto was reasonably full except at night, the GO Train was relatively empty. Public transportation is much better than using conventional cars and trucks. This will likely be the means of transport in the future, like it or not. pipe

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

@dik ... "rb... I like your list, and concur with everything but item 5" ... then you missed the point of 5). The point being whether or not you accept CO2 drives climate change, something I disputed in 3), we should not burn FFs like sailors on a weekend pass. Burning FFs has an impact on our environment and so we should be sensitive to this. Modifying our behaviour, as we have already for so many environmental things, should be expected. This is not stopping burning FFs, but as the price of energy raises then modifying to reduce our cost (and not to save the world ... as George Carlin said "don't worry about the world, it's doing fine").

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

There's two ways of looking at that rb197. If I sell you a lump of coal then it is your responsibility for any CO2 created when you use it (The Smith and Wesson argument). Or, yes you could say that it is inevitable once it comes out of the ground. The latter encourages use of domestic coal, I suspect, rather than traded coal. This drives up CO2 emissions since Australian black coal in particular is better quality than most countries domestic deposits. S&W tends to depress the price of coal, as the user needs to recover the CO2 tax incurred, whereas the second argument increases it, as the miners have to pay the CO2 tax. So I suspect the second is a better policy.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

dik, with all the carbon baloney, We have pointed out Co2 has zero to do with weather. Its all about high and low pressure area's. They no longer are moved or created by the past mechanisms, its now all artificial.
Please ask why.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
The high and low pressure areas are features caused by heating and cooling of the oceans and landmasses. CO2 has a big effect on these... Climate 101. pipe

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Sorry Greg... It's the guy that burns it (gun argument).

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

That's not climate 101. That takes some advanced indoctrination to link CO2 and pressures.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Maybe 201, then... we learned about this, initially, in Grade school, with added info in Grade 10. It's not difficult... It's the heat produced created by the added CO2 insulation, not the CO2 directly. pipe

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

CO2 doesn't produce heat? The production of energy does produce heat regardless of CO2. Perhaps you do agree with the alternative climate change theory I posted earlier?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I corrected that... it acts as an insulation layer that prevents heat from leaving... the good old sun does the rest. It just adds a little more insulation... just like people will have to do to their homes to prevent heat loss and heat gain.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

How is the heat created if it's not produced? We still need to do some work on your terminology.

Anyways, I wonder if this process still works?

https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2018/07/09/h...

It shouldn't because of global warming.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Given:
1. US and China have similar land areas
2. China’s population is ~5x the US’

Find:
Why is the US environment relatively pristine and China’s filthy?

Cleanliness = filth/filtration

Filtration = greenery mi^2

Filth = people * per-capita emissions

Ans. Environmental cleanliness is obviously more a function of population than per-capita emissions —-> per capita stats and greenie efforts don’t matter.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
The point being? ponder

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
The heat is primarily created from radiation from our sun, passing through our atmosphere.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Sorry dik that does not explain a high pressure area that is held in place for months and especially now with all the night time cooling, and lets not forget the jet stream is not allowed to move it.
The heat can also be generated by other means than cold northern seas, as is obviously is. Strange thing since I have been mentioning seeing the depicted pressure areas on the local news weather,
the weather person has not shown that for many days now. Just an interesting coincidence.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
"The jet stream flows high overhead and causes changes in the wind and pressure at that level. This affects things nearer the surface, such as areas of high and low pressure, and therefore helps shape the weather we see. Sometimes, like in a fast-moving river, the jet stream’s movement is very straight and smooth. However, its movement can buckle and loop, like a river’s meander. This will slow things up, making areas of low pressure move less predictably.

The jet stream can also change the strength of an area of low pressure. It acts a bit like a vacuum cleaner, sucking air out of the top and causing it to become more intense, lowering the pressure system. The lower the pressure within a system, generally the stronger the wind, and more stormy the result.

On the other hand, a slower, more buckled jet stream can cause areas of higher pressure to take charge, which typically brings less stormy weather, light winds and dry skies."

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/w...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Warming? This last winter huge probably record snow falls in the Yukon, Gold miner show on tv all the old timers from the area saying the most they have seen.
Jet stream, and like damming a river just do the same with the jet stream, by creating a high pressure, that is what causes the buckling you mention.
And no matter what affects the jet stream, you yourself just proved that GASES or Co2 has absolutely nothing to do with weather or climate. So thanks for that information.
Unusual weather is done via manipulation of the jet stream per your post.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (enginesrus)

Gold miner show on tv all the old timers from the area saying the most they have seen

This is maybe the best source of climate data ever cited in the history of the internet

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
There's a new book coming out...

"Thunberg, who is still studying, said her least favourite subject in school was economics , because it is 'this thing that we humans have made up and we now worship it'.

The activist is due to release her first book 'The Climate Book' on October 27 and it is intended to be the manual for understanding what is happening to the world, why, and how to change it.

The book includes input from a host of experts including Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organisation; Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development; Silpa Kaza from the World Bank; economist Thomas Piketty – to write on their specialist subject."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Is that the same WHO that covered up the outbreak of the COVID causing virus? You sure love your Chinese propaganda.

Please do answer, you dropped some big names as specialists. Can you please explain what their specialism is?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It's not Chinese propaganda... Greta did this all by herself, she was not prompted by anyone. Just because you disagree with something, it doesn't have to be Chinese.

As far as the experts go, the article stated that they had commentary. I'll have to wait until the book comes out. Remarkable for a youngster.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I like her description of economics, but it applies equally to the climate religion.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It may have an impact on your future, Hokie. Like it or not.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Water, water, everywhere... (with apologies to Coleridge) Part of your world Hokie... I know you've had floods before...

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/austral...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Yes, when we get flooding, California has drought, and vice versa. La Niña and El Niño cycle.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

here's a new book coming out...it is intended to be the manual for understanding what is happening to the world, why, and how to change it....Remarkable for a youngster.

Posts like these make me wonder if we aren't being trolled.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I can't believe anybody believes she actually wrote the book.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
She might surprise you, Tug... In another matter another winter may be coming, as expected. This is from Fox, so I'd consider the source.

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/la-nina...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (we get flooding, California has drought, and vice versa)


Hokie... The gods giveth and the gods taketh away... just maybe a little more of each.



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Did you have time to write a book while studying in university? I didn't think so. She's either getting a fake degree or is a fake author

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I could have if I had have wanted to... just didn't feel a need for it. I still haven't. I have no idea what her work load is or what her work ethic is... it seems to be pretty high. In my final year, I had time to do up a 200 page thesis... almost like a book, and only 1 year. I'll wait until the book comes out and see what it's like...I just pre-ordered the book. It's out in Feb... 464 pages.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

do you "really" think she wrote 464 pages ?

we already know that an array of experts contributed as well.

is it possible (or unreasonable) that she wrote a foreword and maybe contributed some pieces and there was an editor pulling it all together ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You're talking about a person who sailed across the Atlantic to prove a point. Whether you agree with her opinions and approach or not, it would be disingenuous in the extreme to not at least acknowledge that she's very determined.

In my opinion, the insinuation that she didn't write the book is being made only because some people want to put an aggressive climate activist in the 'low work ethic idiot' bucket.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I have no reason to disbelieve it. It is likely the case, because one of the first thing that detractors would look at was to see if she wrote it. Failure of this one item could be almost as catastrophic as climate change. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Swinny, I don't know about other's opinions on the book, the first I heard of it was here. However, there has been a new trend lately and that is book deals as a method of laundering money. Do some political favors and get a multi-million dollar book deal. See "Promise Me, Dad" for an example.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

"You're talking about a person who sailed across the Atlantic to prove a point." ... you're talking about someone who was a passenger on a sailboat.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
picky, picky... it was still a sailboat, and being a passenger doesn't detract from her actions. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (rb1957)

you're talking about someone who was a passenger on a sailboat.

Think about how many pages you could write when you're sitting around on a sailboat for 10 days or whatever

Look taking the stance that there's no possible way an adult person wrote a 400 page book is the most obvious possible take.

It's a lame attempt to invalidate whatever the book says because "there's no way she wrote it, man! after all she's in college now!".

I obviously haven't read the book and I'm no huge fan of hers; there's a good chance it's 400+ pages of bullshit - but come on. This is lame intellectual dishonesty at best.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It won't be out until Feb of next year, but I have one on order. The cover even has a climate change 'bar code' from U of Reading:

https://www.reading.ac.uk/planet/climate-resources...




-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I didn't mean to invalidate the book ... only the hype that she wrote it.

personally I think the book will invalidate itself, if indeed it was written by an 18 year old.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
What hype? She likely did write it. She's done more things in her 19 years than most people do in a lifetime. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

and what ? the experts gave her notes, and she put words in their mouths ?

and what ? give us the benefit of her vast experience and worldly knowledge. "Knowledge" that leads her to say things like "Thunberg, who is still studying, said her least favourite subject in school was economics , because it is 'this thing that we humans have made up and we now worship it'. I can't wait.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Don't forget "listen to the science".

Funny listening to someone who has been bankrolled by her wealthy parents complain about taking an economics class.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I'm sure we'll be told what the science is ...

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

So does this new book coming out, cover climate engineering? Or just social engineering?
Nothing like a good engineering topic right?
dik is on board, lets see freon is out and what comes next?
And not to forget the ozone layer and damage to it from?
And this had no affect right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Argus
And then other such tests never mentioned.

More info on the topic
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environme...

The cause of climate change they wish not to talk about
https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/1065/nuk...

Again bye bye freon, and then the real cause of the problems.
https://www.livescience.com/tsar-bomba-secret-test...

What is needed is more of this type of clean energy.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/7758/has-the...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

do you mean electric cosmology ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
They're like Lorenz's Butterfly, but different...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (So does this new book coming out, cover climate engineering? Or just social engineering?)


I'll let you know when I read it... it has some world class authorities, attached. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

We all got to see what world class authorities know during the COVID pandemic. 🙄

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Even with all the experts, the US had over 1,000,000 fatalities with Covid and still climbing. We'll see if they can handle climate change any better.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

That's my point. The experts didn't didn't stop anything and caused a lot of societal harm in the process.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (TugboatEng)

The experts didn't didn't stop anything

Oh boy. Why am I not shocked you're on that side of that argument.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The experts told us the vaccines would stop transmission. The experts told us inflation was transitory. The experts told us Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation. The experts are telling us climate change is existential.

The experts don't have a very good track record right now.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

We get it, you know more than everybody about everything.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...until the experts know more and more about less and less.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

The experts...caused a lot of societal harm in the process.

To be fair they only harmed the paranoid, those choosing to live under dictatorial politicians, and their own reputations. Most of us just ignored the politicos/media and went about our lives, albeit with 1-4 weeks extra paid vacation, cheap travel, a huge amount of additional concerts/events, and other perks. IME someone's 2020 experience says a lot about them - whether they binged Netflix out of fear of the outside world or had an amazing spring and summer.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

So the supply chain shortages, inflation, child learning loss, 20% jump in murder rates didn't happen? The expert recommendations led to bad policy decisions.

We just need to be mindful of the consequences.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Sorry... Tug, this might get a lot worse. Something to ponder... ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

So says the "experts". Did you miss my point entirely?

Many have accepted activists, politicians, bureaucrats, governments, and snake oil salesmen as experts.

We still can't define what an expert is. What qualifications does one need to be a "climate scientist".

Curiously, you started with the name authorities. Authorities are simply those authorized to speak about it. It does not imply expertise.

Back to the climate subject, has there been a single expert prediction that has come true with regards to climate change?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
No point to be missed.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

If we ban oil what will we make our face masks out of?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Things are heating up faster in the North...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/explorers-camera-yuko...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...and not moving quite fast enough.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-united...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

If you suddenly take everybody's cars away you're going to experience untold human suffering. I guess the UN is right for once. The trouble is, they're going to directly be the cause.

As for your other article, it should be concerning that the snow level has receded to a level seen within the last 85 years? Do you get concerned when your Cheerios box is less than half full?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Nothing compared to the human loss from droughts and starvation. Things may change drastically, depending on what may be coming.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Dik)

Nothing compared to the human loss from droughts and starvation.

In reality global crop yields are up 30% due to the extra CO2. You don’t about that though, do you.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It's a completely illogical assumption to think that global warming is going to lead to drought and starvation. Extra CO2 is good for plants. Plants tend to grow better in warmer climates. The higher temperatures will help put more moisture into the atmosphere to reduce drought. Notice that any of the hottest places are also the wettest places.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

So the supply chain shortages, inflation, child learning loss, 20% jump in murder rates didn't happen?

Most of us really haven't been impacted by any of that nonsense. Murder rates are irrelevant when you dont live under the aforementioned dictatorial politics that drives most of our societal ills. Children weren't out of schools any longer than a normal holiday break, so classifying the brief COVID shutdown as a "child learning loss" is rather needlessly dramatic. High fuel prices don't equal inflation, and prices otherwise haven't increased significantly unless you're ignorant enough to fall for the rampant price-gouging. As to "shortages," lead times have been amazing since 2020. I'll admit a few days of concern until the initial TP claims proved unfounded, but those claims anymore usually mean somebody's either scamming or talking out their backside.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

Most of us really haven't been impacted by any of that nonsense

You have been affected more than you think. Consumer goods haven't been hit so hard but industrial products have. Lubricants, adhesive, and finished products all have long lead times or are impossible to get, still to this day.

Quote:

Murder rates are irrelevant when you dont live under the aforementioned dictatorial politics that drives most of our societal ills.

There is absolutely a correlation between the public acceptance of face coverings and the number of bandits running around shooting at each other and mobbing shops.


Quote:

classifying the brief COVID shutdown as a "child learning loss" is rather needlessly dramatic.

I can't believe I'm sharing a UNICEF link but they seem to think schools were closed for close to a year.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/schools-more...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/25...

Quote:

High fuel prices don't equal inflation

Wait, what? Fuel (energy) is one of the fundamental components of cost. Fuel prices go up costs go up... for everything. Isn't that inflation?


RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

Lubricants, adhesive, and finished products all have long lead times or are impossible to get, still to this day.
Granted, I'm not buying thousands of gallons of anything but also haven't seen any significant issues getting drums and smaller of special products.

Quote:

There is absolutely a correlation between the public acceptance of face coverings...
Folks in the PRoC may have worn them, but here in the US most folks didn't do that.

Quote:

I can't believe I'm sharing a UNICEF link but they seem to think schools were closed for close to a year.
More like 3-4 weeks, schools had to reopen when businesses did so parents could work. MI has school choice so most parents dont even waste their breath on school administrators and boards anymore, they just send the kids to another and the local district has to cover the cost. Several local districts proposed requiring masks and immunizations until the numbers started to drop.

Quote:

Fuel prices go up costs go up...
But they didnt. Our budget has only increased ~10% in 10 years, and that's mostly due to buying progressively larger homes.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (Folks in the PRoC may have worn them, but here in the US most folks didn't do that.)


and you have over a million deaths to show for it.pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

That's a load of crap. We had 1 million deaths due to PIC (Pneumonia, Influenza, and COVID). Breathing without a mask did not cause anybody to die.

Why influenza deaths were coded as COVID deaths is another question.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...not according to worldometers... 1095K fatalities... as of today? pipe



Even if wrong by 50%, which in unlikely, you are still higher than India which has a population of nearly five times as much.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

dik what is coming is more weather engineering. So we "believe".

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

dik, please familiarize yourself with the definition of a COVID death. In the USA we call it death with PIC, that's pneumonia influenza COVID. The numbers are inflated because they include more than COVID. And why do you think masks had any contribution to anything? There has been zero correlation between mask mandates and COVID deaths.

The problem is that the people dying of COVID were on their last legs to start with. The people dying from the 20% increase in homicide during mask mandates are young and otherwise healthy individuals. This is a problem.

These are the same experts that tell us climate change is existential. No credibility.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...and another source of carbon: pipe

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nasa-fin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (dik, please familiarize yourself with the definition of a COVID death.)


Whatever... you have over a million of them and counting. Tell that to the sod that has passed on. If you seasonally adjust weather, you will eliminate winters... feel any warmer? ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
This may be a possibility on the horizon. We just don't know how far this will go, and no one seems to be really addressing the matter. pipe

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2344912-the-u...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Are you allowed to post Daily Mail articles? Aren't they a trash news outlet like Fox? New Scientist is a subsidiary.

On a brighter note, we just got our first big rain this year, very early in the season, and with more on the way. Perhaps this will be the drought buster year. These things are cyclical, after all.

-cheers from the heart of the mega drought.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Read the article... it makes sense, too.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
More on methane...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It looks like the warming process rate of 2 isn't restricted to the Arctic...pipe

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/2/europe-wa...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

What exactly is a heat wave? We need to have a formal definition otherwise we could call everyday a heat wave day.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Maybe an anomality where it may be slightly warmer? Dunno... ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I wonder what COP27 will bring? More of the same? ponder

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/climate-c...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI



The climate agenda is going to require a substantial amount of authoritarianism to be effective. I guess that's for the better. 1° is existential, authoritarianism is not.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I'm pretty sure this will not end well. 'Democratic countries' are largely responsible for this mess, so yes, they should be responsible to 'fix' the problem. It's not going to happen, so we'll just have to wait to see how this turns out. COP27, in particular, should be using teleconference methods for meeting. It's the really green thing to do. Just a government 'circle jerk' where all the politicians are standing in a circle expressing what a wonderful job they are doing... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It continues, unabated...pipe

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11392795/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Are you suggesting we do tornado abatement in Tornado Alley?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
This can end badly...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11395273/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It shows...



https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/15-countries-m...

and from elsewhere... Canada consumption 42.9BT, per capita 1179T, US consumption 731.1BT, per capita 2263T, and Australia consumption 129.6BT, per capita 5343T.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Which is it, millions of tons production or BT consumption? Only a bunch of zeros.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

If the price of coal is $220 USD, that works out to $4400 USD per person per year. That's actually not an unreasonable amount.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Simple fix for all this goofiness, just shut down all weather and climate engineering.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I would suspect that would be the total amount, including industry distributed... and that would include coal power generation, if Australia uses that...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

and you have over a million deaths to show for it.

If Canada had a capitalistic medical system you'd have had far more. 75% of COVID deaths stateside were from non-hospitalized senior citizens whose deaths in prior years would've been ruled "natural causes." Categorizing deaths as COVID during 2020 however was very profitable.

JMO but I'd be more upset over the real deaths caused by unnecessary lockdowns than irrelevant stats.

Quote:

More on methane...

So your answer to methane is to blame coal? That doesnt make sense. Moreover, the subsidizing and regulatory-push for CNG as an alternative transportation fuel along with comparably low standards for HC emissions shows that methane is of little concern for greenies or govt today.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (If Canada had a capitalistic medical system you'd have had far more.)


A really good reason for having a socialistic one, I would think. A couple of years back I broke my ankle (turned 90 deg) Two weeks in hospital, a bunch of titanium fittings and screws... totol cost to me $500 for the ambulance to the hospital...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (So your answer to methane is to blame coal?)


Absolutely not... both are problems with methane being about 30x a greater problem... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

totol cost to me

And there it is. Perception is bigger than reality.

Here in the USA I had a problem in my hand that requires an excision. It took 5 office visits including the surgery. It cost me $125. The actual cost was closer $30,000. I'm sure your case is the same.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Now, there's a thought... I wonder how far it will go and who it will affect? ponder

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11397045/...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (And there it is. Perception is bigger than reality.)


No perception... paid for by taxes, by one and everyone. But the total out of pocket expense was just under $500. Same accident in the US would likely have cost me over $100K.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Poor old Ed fell for the lies.

"Observational facts do not verify the story of a rapidly rising sea level in the Maldives. On the contrary, stability in sea level is well documented for the last 30-40 years."
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279432868...
Failed politician. failed climate science.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
India seems to be the only country doing well...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-cop27-solar-pow...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (I doubt that using the Daily Fail as a news source is doing much for the credibility of your arguments.)


It's on par with Fox... but the story is likely true, and may be a sign of things to follow. It's too soon to know.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

But the total out of pocket expense was just under $500

That's entirely false. Are you not a taxpayer? Have you not paid many thousands of dollars towards your $500 surgery?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I fully appreciate the need to share certain costs as a community but insulating the consumer with a "$500 out of pocket" sets up the environment where costs increase out of our control. In that case, the lobbyists get to set the cost instead of the consumers. That is not capitalism.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Extreme weather becomming more common? pipe

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5960314

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

COP27 UN Climate Change Conference which kicked off yesterday 6th of November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

During COP1 in Berlin, with representatives from 117 countries, the Berlin Mandate was established, which had as its main focus the consensus of all countries to take more energetic actions regarding the mitigation of the greenhouse effect.

Among other resolutions, it was defined that the commitment of developed countries to reduce their emissions to 1990 levels, by the year 2000, would not be sufficient to achieve the Convention's long-term objectives.

On December 11, 1997, delegates from more than 150 countries signed the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to lower the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. Human activities release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which have been proven to cause climate change.

The COP26 international climate conference took place in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November 2021. The main goal was to secure global net zero by mid-century and keep a maximum of 1.5 C degrees of warming within reach. Net zero means total emissions are equal to or less than the emissions removed from the environment.

Other goals included accelerating the phase-out of coal and mobilising at least $100bn in climate finance per year.

Why does COP27 matter?
In short, in order to keep the goal of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C, we need to cut emissions in half by the end of the decade. Overall, the commitments laid out at the last COP event didn’t come sufficiently close to limiting warming to 1.5°C. Scientists agree that the window for this is closing, and the current plans as they stand put us on track for a 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century. It’s better than the 4°C we were on, but there’s still a way to go to keep 1.5°C alive.

Since COP 1, This is COP 27. There'll also be COP28 and 29, and 30 and onwards, meanwhile global warming is going warmer and warmer
With climatic devastation everywhere: Droughts in Sudan, floods in Pakistan and Italy, fires in California and Amazonas, Hurricanes in Florida, Droughts in Portugal and Spain, pollution in New Delhi. Is it still a way of of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C by the mid-century? I guess not.

https://unfccc.int/cop27

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
COP27 is a total greenwashing 'circle jerk'...pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (What if I told you the average temperature of the earth has not increased in 8 years?)


I would suggest you were in error...

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understandin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

well, they haven't included the dailies from this year, which is running cool, but even Blind Freddy can see the last 7 years on that plot have a falling trend.

Math is hard.

here's the plot for the last 7 years from the source data for your plot.




Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

What are the consequences when a climate scientist gets their model or predictions wrong? An engineer can lose their license, even be held criminally liable for botching their calculations. Climatologists conveniently project out 25 years so that they can be comfortably retired before their credibility can be evaluated. There is great incentive to fabricate the worst numbers and zero consequence. The only consequences are for those that dare be skeptical of the agenda.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

None of course. IPCC in 1990-1992 said

“under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3 C° per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 C° to 0.5 C° per decade). This is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1 C° above the present value by 2025 and 3 C° before the end of the next century. The rise will not be steady because of the influence of other factors.”

The actual to date is 0.19 deg/decade, just outside their uncertainty range, but a full 1/3 different from their central estimate. So, if reality is outside your uncertainty range for your model, then what does a responsible person do? They withdraw the model from public gaze and work on it.

One reason is that CO2 has only risen by 60 ppm (360->420), scenario A assumed we'd be at 508 by now. Presumably that is because they have overestimated the half life of CO2 in the atmosphere, or got the anthropogenic CO2 wrong.

At least half of that sentence is right assumption for manmade emissions is 7 billion tonnes of carbon in 1990 to 12-15 in 2025, the reality is they flatlined at about 10 since 2011.

Finally so far as climate sensitivity goes, a figure of 1.2 deg c/doubling fits the real world data better than 3, which is nice because the laboratory measurements suggest ~1. Paleoclimate estimate is that 7000 ppm was about +15 deg C, giving an estimate of CS of 1.55.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

Same accident in the US would likely have cost me over $100K.

Nah. Stateside you'd likely be in the 90% with insurance and a max out-of-pocket ~$5k, which would take a bad year to reach. $3-500 is prob normal for what you're describing.

The interestingly absurd bit of climate discussions for me is when folks insist we've made great progress by spending trillions, but also insist that we are approaching doomsday at an ever-increasing rate.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
You might be taught to believe that, but the reality is that everyone is not covered by insurance and to the same extent. This is reflected in the numbers for infant mortality where Cuba has a lower infant mortality rate than does the US. I think that the US is down at #50 from the top.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I've been a serious athlete for most of my life and have been injured A LOT. I know the insurance system in the US on an intimate level; I USE mine in a way a lot of people (most people?) don't.

I've never spent more than $4500 out of pocket in a single year. Never. Not once. Including years where I was under the knife three times in 12 months for major joint repairs.

Dik, you're talking out of your ass.

Also, dose of reality on infant mortality statistics:

The WHO defines an 'infant death' as the death of a child at any point between conception and 42 days after birth. The CDC in the US, who reports to the WHO, defines infant death as the death of a child at any point between conception and the child's first birthday.

Effectively the time period where a death counts as an 'infant death' in the US is twice as long as countries which use the WHO standard - which is all of Europe, Japan, Australia, etc. It's a statistical anomaly. True infant death in the US is on par with every other developed country in the world which has a robust healthcare system.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I'm a ventriloquist, too... Look up the data...



-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

can we remember that we're talking about climate, and the data showing stable global (land and ocean) temp over the last 12 years.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It's kind of relevant. It's the same twisted data coming from the same activist sources. Maybe this data is more relatable to our experience and discussing it will help us better recognize the misinformation in the climate data.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

I'm a ventriloquist, too... Look up the data...

Go read my post again.

WHO and CDC count infant deaths differently. Period. It's a fact.

It pains me to agree with anyone in this thread given the bullshit that's been spread thin, but, I'm with Tug here. If you can't understand why this infant death rate conversation is nonsensical, its indicative of why your opinions are what they are.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

If we who deal with models for our professional living can't see how models can be twisted (maliciously or not, intentionally or not) then arguing about how other data can be misrepresented is as futile as the gallons of ink spilt on this matter already.

The thing that kicks this out of the real engineering/scientific arena is ... no one knows what will happen. We don't know the mechanisms of climate, we discover new ones each year/paper. This is a purely political topic, with both sides having data that supports their opinion (and of course both sides slag off the other as "cherry picking").

sigh

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I assume great care was exercised in the assembly of the data, so everyone else (the first 50) would look good. Finland, Japan and Iceland have a real vested interest in this. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Engineers using the first FEMs thought they were being very careful and diligent and were (at times) mislead by believing their own results.

It seems very odd to me that you select three nations as having a "real vested interest" when this issue (by your statements) is an existential threat to everyone, a truly global issue.

From my own reading on the topic there are clearly many well intentioned researchers. There are also some less well intentioned. Then there are the charlatans and the "click bait" fishermen. These groups are to be found on both sides of the debateargumentcontradiction.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

well, they haven't included the dailies from this year, which is running cool, but even Blind Freddy can see the last 7 years on that plot have a falling trend.

If this is accurate, it seems we only have one option. Back to our previous playbook. Increased CO2 is going to cause another ice age!

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Looking at both WHO and CDC definitions of infant mortality posted here, they both start at conception. Do they count abortions in those totals? Or do they retroactively become non infants and not counted?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (rb1957)

It seems very odd to me that you select three nations as having a "real vested interest" when this issue (by your statements) is an existential threat to everyone, a truly global issue.

I believe he's mentioning those three nations in reference to the infant mortality non sequitur - not climate.

Doesn't change the fact that the infant mortality data is a non-equal comparison of values. Period. End of story. To continue to stand on that ground is farcical.

Quote (rb1957)

From my own reading on the topic there are clearly many well intentioned researchers. There are also some less well intentioned. Then there are the charlatans and the "click bait" fishermen. These groups are to be found on both sides of the debateargument.

The fact which none of the major ink-spillers seem to be willing to acknowledge in this thread.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Canada plans? on addressing the carbon footprint from the manufacture of cement (Countries are not often successful with their intentions):

https://www.constructioncanada.net/industry-and-go...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
An article on high speed rail like it should be done, as long as the power is not by fossil fuels... pipe

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/worlds-fastest-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Another potential threat... pipe

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-63655140

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Eh, now they're just playing on the irrational fears of the face maskers. Very few bacteria are actually harmful, many are quite beneficial.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I agree... and some can kill you. You never know what's floating around out there. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

These bacteria were not world ending before they were frozen, why should they be world ending now?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Maybe we were tougher back then... I dunno, and I don't know what damage they did back then... there's nothing like more ingredients in the primordial bacteria stew. At very least, they cannot be good for you. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

At very least, they cannot be good for you.

This is very wrong. Most bacteria are harmless. Some are beneficial. Few are harmful. Odds are that they will be anything but not good for you.

Again, they're playing on your post pandemic fears.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Corrected... "At very least, they may not be good for you."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

This thread needs to die.

You two are never going to agree. I don't understand how you can both continue to piss up this rope.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

were humans around when the permafrost froze ? (IDK)

why would we (today) have immunity to these ancient viruses/bacteria ?

what happened to the indigenous peoples of the "new world" when people from the "old world" came to "visit" them ? they exchanged viruses and many people died (as both populations encountered "new" viruses).

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Even if the freezing predates humans, we have inherited immunity from our ancestors.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC84522...

If there was reason to believe there was something scary lurking down there wouldn't you expect to see more bio-security around such operation as ice core sampling? Or is the article just an example of science fiction?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

"we have inherited immunity from our ancestors" ... really ?

immunity from viruses our ancestors were never exposed to ? (if freezing of the permafrost predates humans)

and even if it didn't how do you explain what happened after the Spanish discovered the new world and the two populations, separated for thousands of years, mixed ? (ie mixed new viruses with each other).

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
The sharing was mostly one way...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Exactly, explorers brought new viruses and bacterias. These viruses in the ice are ancient. Our ancestors most likely have been exposed to them or they don't infect our ancestors. That includes our pre-human ancestors. Remember, the human race has one or two originations and spread from there. If that is the case, we have lots of common immunity.

There seems to be a lens of negativity applied to all of todays problems. The truth is, we'll probably be fine.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

The sharing was mostly one way

Why do you think this was the case?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Living beings since they appeared on earth are carriers of bacteria which product cyclic viruses that evolve in parallel with climate change, some of those living beings are extinguished, by men action, and its extintion, by hummans guilty, origenates other viruses, as a never ending story.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

I don't understand how you can both continue to piss up this rope.

The rope must be wicking.

I'll need data before making judgements about explorer & native deaths. Just a reminder that we're entering the two deadliest months for the elderly thanks to exposure to grandchildren during holidays.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

"The sharing was mostly one way..." ... yes, Europe had the advantage of being several weeks voyage from North America, so much of the infections literally died out. Still the new viruses had a significant impact on the Europeans exposed to them.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

At what point do we accept the infections as inevitable? Should explorers never have made contact? Should North and South America be cut off from the rest of the world like the Sentinelese?

With the benefit of hindsight, there were some deaths due to new virus exposure but it wasn't existential to the races.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
He's got it wrong... "You cannot push on a rope!" I actually think you can... you just reduce the effective pre-stress... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (tugboateng)

With the benefit of hindsight, there were some deaths due to new virus exposure but it wasn't existential to the races.

Uh.. the primary virus that europeans brought over literally destroyed multiple entire civilizations. Completely erased them from the earth.

I'm not in this ridiculous 'ice cores will kill us all camp' but at least get the history right.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Can you provide a source for such a claim? Google is all over the place with numbers ranging from tens of thousands to 90% of the total population. Semantics matter here. The sources claiming genocide like to use terms that group viruses and violence. It's very reminiscent of COVID deaths.

And now that we've witnessed modern science's total failure to prevent transmission in of viruses can we really accuse much more primitive generations of maliciously spreading endemic diseases?

The real takeaway here is that the world would be better off if the Europeans had encountered the indigenous Americans earlier, before their immunity had such time to diverge.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
There was an article on that in a TVO educational series titled 'Origins-A History of Canada' about 50 years back. The population of the Natives was diminished from 6 or 8 million to several hundred thousand.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Why did that happen? Our history books love to tell legends of native American warriors. How did they earn such skills and reputation? Perhaps they practiced on other tribes?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...or maybe that's the way we'd like to see things, instead of maybe an ugly truth? pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

What is more ugly than a bunch of tribes in perpetual war with themselves? The white man unknowingly spreading viruses amongst the natives would be the less ugly truth. Whatever, in the times of revisionist history, there are no truths. Even the Wayback Machine is controversial in this modern day.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (TugBoatEng)

Can you provide a source...had such time to diverge.

No one said anything about genocide, or conflating any of this with 'violence'. The historical record is extremely clear. Your attempts to cloud the point are also clear.

The Aztec, Mayan, and Incan civilizations were decimated by smallpox, to the point where their populations were practically eliminated and their cultural norms and practices were erased. They were wiped so clean that even though these events happened less than 500 years ago, major physical structures were completely lost and started being 'rediscovered' in the 1800s. This is a set of facts that are not really under any reasonable dispute at this point.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Swinny)

The Aztec, Mayan, and Incan civilizations were decimated by smallpox,

That's simply not true. It's not known what wiped out their populations. Smallpox seems to be removed as a possibility. It might not have even been a virus.

Quote:

On Monday scientists swept aside smallpox, measles, mumps, and influenza as likely suspects, identifying a typhoid-like “enteric fever” for which they found DNA evidence on the teeth of long-dead victims.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/16/mexi...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

For fucks sake go READ that article and not just the headline

Quote (Arrticle that YOU posted)

a smallpox epidemic killed an estimated 5-8 million people in the immediate wake of the Spanish arrival.

A second outbreak from 1576 to 1578 killed half the remaining population

And even then... your point is that... a different european-introduced pandemic is what killed them?

You are off the reservation and you don't even see it. At this point I almost feel sorry for you. Endemic ignorance is impossible to fix without an open mind, which you clearly don't have.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You seem hyper focused on the European introduced aspect. That is indicative of a closed mind. I enjoy finding alternative information. For example, I don't think any of us knew that salmonella was the final straw that brought down the Aztec empire.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/04/une...

Quote:

"The duality of war and agriculture was crucial for the Aztec economy."

"When the Spaniards came, Tenochtitlan had approximately 200,000 people. It was one of the world’s largest cities in the 16th century."

If the Aztecs had an agricultural based economy and the largest cities it's possible they developed their own strain of salmonella that wiped them out.

https://www.science.org/content/article/farming-ga...

Quote:

By settling down in close quarters with domestic animals and their waste, they gave Salmonella enterica, which was lurking in an unknown animal host, easy access to the human gut where it adapted to humans.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Swinny... play nice.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

Swinny... play nice.

This is playing nice.

Identifying ignorance isn't personal. It's a simple statement of fact. Both of you are clearly motivated to disregard any information that doesn't suit your particular narrative - neither of which appear to be based in any form of abject truth.

It's dissappointing.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Not to disregard, but to look at the material and re-evaluate my own considerations if nessary, or to reinforce them.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

"Not to disregard" ... that's the same as "with all due respect".

reinforced by "but".

can we agree that viruses change over time ?
that new viruses evolve for which we have no immunity ?

can we agree that our immunity changes over time ? Smallpox is reemerging as a threat because we immunised against it, but now we're not ('cause it essentially disappeared) but now it's reappearing (as we lose immunity but not vaccinating our children).

then isn't possible that the permafrost contains viruses for which we have no immunity ?
not that this is an existential threat to our population, but it is a possible hazard.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It is a hazard in the sense that everything has some level of hazard associated with it.

Didn't they swab some dudes belly button last year and discover like 50 new bacteria/viruses never seen before? (Edit: I went and looked it up and it was like 10 years ago and there were over 1,400 new species never before seen. The point I was trying to convey was that there are more bacteria in more places than we can likely ever prepare for.)

Trying to anticipate/prepare for some ancient viralpocolypse seems like a waste of bandwidth to me when we've got real, modern, and treatable viruses that are doing harm today. But then again, they just don't capture headlines the same way.

- Andrew

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Viruses trapped in ice don't change over time. Our ancestors survived these viruses without medical intervention so it is unlikely for them to be seriously harmful to the modern world.

It is possible that there are viruses in the ice for which we have no immunity because they developed in inhospitable places where humans didn't live. With that said, these viruses probably couldn't infect a human for the same reason. Maybe avian viruses would be the biggest threat.

It doesn't seem that the ones taking samples and bringing these viruses to the surface for study seem very concerned about it. It's most likely that some think tank came up with the idea of a deadly pathogen emerging from the ice and ran it as a headline for clicks.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I haven't been able to dig up info on whether they can mutate, but apparently there can be some new 'old ones'. As long as they haven't been killed, I suspect they can mutate, too.

https://www.the-sun.com/tech/3329260/ancient-virus...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Mutation requires a host. The mutation happens during replication and viruses can't self-replicate. Therefore, a virus frozen in ice can't mutate.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Thanks... didn't know that they needed a host.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
More on aging viruses (viri?)...

https://globalnews.ca/news/9305181/50000-year-old-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Have you not seen Jurassic Park?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

That's a good source of vetting information, I've heard...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It's a relevant comment. Your article says researchers have revived a virus from the ice. That's not very different from reviving the dinosaurs in Jurassic Park. It doesn't sound like they let the ice melt and the virus started spreading itself. It does sound like they recreated the virus using the same technology that added a spike protein to a coronavirus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Much as I enjoyed the memes about Monkeypox, I'd love to see what the internet would do with Dinopox

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Hot off the press...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/water-boil-order-ho...

It's a start... is there more on the horizon? pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

How is this relevant to climate change? Maybe post it to the engineering disasters forum?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It and what is going to follow is likely related to the effects of climate change... It may get more severe over time... we'll just have to wait and find out... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

You've lost me.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I'm not sure how many of you saw this, but the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe was spruiking this graph in his speech last week:



https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-1...

Th graph was picked up, published and retweeted by all the usual suspects - ABC, Guardian, etc...

Isn't it astonishing, a graph which claims a ~3000% increase in flooding has already occured since 1940, and not a single media outlet questioned it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I don't know if the data is correct... but, Australia's position, in the middle of a nice warm body of water that may heat up, makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even in nice 'cool' Canada, we may not be safe. We'll see what the future brings. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The trick is that the data is correct so it can't be refuted. The problem is that they likely changed the definitions along the way. What is the definition of flood, storm, fire, drought, and extreme temp? How can these all go up when some are mutually exclusive?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

I don't know if the data is correct

It's not. There are not ~20x as many natural disasters happening today as there were in the mid 20th century. Floods do not occur ~30x as often as they did back then. These are artificial numbers.

Quote (Tug)

The problem is that they likely changed the definitions along the way.

Yeah, it's partially that (but not only that). One of the definitions of disaster is to declare a state of emergency (https://www.emdat.be/explanatory-notes). That now constitutes a natural disaster according to the database in question. You may have noticed this increasing willingness for governments to declare states of emergency. It has filtered right down to local government level in Australia. I'm sure it's the same around the world.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It would be interesting to know the original source for that data. I don't imagine there were many weather satellites spotting storms in the deserts in 1959.

I'll have a look but I suspect it is a ridiculous graph.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
What is the Emergency Events Database and who are RBA? ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Reserve Bank of Australia and the chart is based on fake data. from the report

Globally, the frequency of extreme weather and climate events has increased over recent decades and it is likely
that this trend will continue (Graph 7).[3] Over the past 20 years, the number of major floods has doubled and the
frequency of extreme heatwaves and droughts has also increased significantly.

ref 3 is See IPCC (2021), ‘Summary for Policymakers’ in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, pp. 3−32. Available at <https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/repor...
IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf>.

Which does not include the data to back that chart up. He lied. Again.

I do know where it comes from and the people who created acknowledge that it is not robust historically, as anyone can see, we do not get 10x more bad stuff than in the 1940-1959 decades, it just gets observed and reported.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Greg)

It would be interesting to know the original source for that data

https://public.emdat.be/

It’s just a database of disaster events. The records get patchier the further back you go, hence the apparent exponential increase in natural disasters over 100 years.

It’s concerning that Philip Lowe considers it a reliable measure of extreme weather events, and of the economic cost of climate change.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Dik)

What is the Emergency Events Database and who are RBA? ponder

Emergency Events Database:

https://apdim.unescap.org/knowledge-hub/emergency-...

RBA (The Reserve Bank of Australia)

https://www.rba.gov.au/



The graph appears to be the RBA’s, based on data from the emergency events database. If you download excel records from EMDAT the number of events in each year appears to correspond to the approximate size of the bars in the graph. So I presume that’s what they did.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

It and what is going to follow is likely related to the effects of climate change... It may get more severe over time... we'll just have to wait and find out...

Seems like a golden opportunity...

https://babylonbee.com/news/experts-warn-we-have-only-12-years-left-until-they-change-the-dates-on-global-warming-again

Quote:

"If we don't take action, then in 12 years we will have to explain why the world hasn't ended and come up with a new number," one UN scientist warned.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Things winding up or down? ponder

https://theintercept.com/2022/12/03/climate-biodiv...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

There is a good chance that energy efficient lighting is a cause of biodiversity loss.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Call climate change what it really is. Geoengineering, cause and effect. Make the problem to fix the problem.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
A really good article on Climate Change:
Wrong link and I cannot locate it... will try... thanks Hokie...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Are you sure you got the link you wanted?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Notice the extreme weather chart above, around 1960 is when President Johnson talked about weather control.
All fits nicely, its a fine science now. Its nice and extreme now, to help you "Believe".

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Nothing screams ignorance of the scientific method like unquestioning deference to supposed “experts”.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Whoda guessed...

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/politics/big-oi...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The other side will soon have a chance to correct that.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
not at the rate they are going...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Seems to me I read that the House has been taken by the Republicans. And by the way, the Democrat chairman of that committee has been defeated for reelection.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

No gases other than high and low pressure areas, sure "air" causing this strange weather. Just how are these pressure area's manipulated?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWj2RLe9WYk

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

We are having a normal winter here on the USA West Coast currently. That video is no better quality than dik's links.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I know... you always have snowstorms in the winter... this may be a portent of things to come...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63952802

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Ok, now you must be trolling. An average winter storm is portent of things to come?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...maybe a little more than average... we'll have to wait and find out. Who knows, maybe a White 4th of July is in the future? pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

That's what they like in the New Zealand and Australian ski resorts.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Somebody seems to be smartening up about EVs...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ev-transition-col...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Another example of why the "experts" are not to be trusted.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I know... you've always had weather...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63989303

What if it's a sign of more things to come?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote:

What if it's a sign of more things to come?

More mild storms? Not sure my neighbors care about minor inconveniences on the horizon.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I think for most of the world, storms are how we get our precipitation. I wouldn't call them a minor inconvenience. They're more of a necessity. I don't know where the most recent comments here are trying to lead?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
If that's mild... it will be interesting if they ever get severe!

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Minor inconvenience, a necessarily evil from some perspectives perhaps. After posting earlier I had the thought that my smartassed response should have pointed out the disappointment of fellow skiers and snow-machiners at the lack of promised snow.

And yes, stateside that was a pretty mild storm by all accounts that I've heard.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

dik there is more to come the climate engineering is at peak now. Climate change is key to the agenda.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Those dang climate engineers and their average weather...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
There doesn't seem to be much of an improvement.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/16/world/coal-use-reco...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
and Tug, is weather were seasonably adjusted, we wouldn't have any, it would seem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The greater use of coal is good news for those who would otherwise freeze. When other sources of power and heating fail to deliver, the earth still has abundant coal.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I'm mostly curious about how fossil fuel deposits got so far underground. Did Pangaea have that much biomass? How can anybody argue that CO2 in the atmosphere is bad for life? Perhaps we are living at the end of the worst extinction event ever and things will only get better as CO2 returns to historical levels.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

As to that, in the fairly recent rather cold weather known as the Ice Ages CO2 fell to within a hair's breadth (0.0005%) of (typical) plants being unable to survive - of course they'd have adapted one way or another, mostly by dying and making room for mosses and the like, so they wouldn't be the sort of things we're used to. Proto mammals originated back when CO2 was 5 times today's levels, the current levels are very low from a paleo point of view. Hominids have happily survived for millions of years with levels around 1000 ppm.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Worth noting in these discussions is that there will almost ALWAYS be someone concerned about something in every matter. Concern over potential climate change isnt new nor did modern science/tech/data create it. The ancestors of our modern greenies berated others for not joining their rain dances, terrified prayers against thunder, and other religious ceremonies. The only real change is their shift from an extreme belief in religion to an extreme view of "science."

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Fear is the problem. Fear has been used to sell climate change. Fear prevents rational thought.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I'm just hoping that it doesn't get 'really scary'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

But you are doing your best to scare people. You need to back off.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Just a caution to them... to let them know that 'they should change their ways.'

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Greg... on the down side, the wrath of God may pale by comparison. We just don't know, but we will likely find out (not me, but my grandkids...). Chicken Little, only has to be right, once.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

What does God have to do with this?

Changing our ways because of stupid and unfounded fears is the best way to make sure your grand children return to the caveman lifestyle and a 35 year life expectancy.

The human life expectancy and quality of life has only been improving despite climate change. In fact, the only thing to out a dent in that is gain of function research on viruses. Why do gain of function? So we're ready for that scary future? See how your fear mongering causes a real negative impact? Anti-social kids are running amok in their facemask burglarizing stores and shooting at each other. You want climate change? What climate changed to cause gun violence to be the leading cause of death for minors? Don't worry about fossil fuels. You're grand children are going to have bigger issues to deal with.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Since we are using 'old saws', perhaps it is time to let dik 'stew in his own juices'.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (What does God have to do with this?)


Nothing whatsoever... we did this ourselves; it was used as a comparison...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Copy that, hokie.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I learnt a new phrase the other day. Climate bedwetter. It baffles me that bunch of engineers who claim that CO2 is the bad doggy can't actually propose an economically valid solution for A Simple Challenge. The cheapest seems to be all nuclear. I'm fine with that. Second cheapest is massive overbuild of renewables and transmission lines and some combination of storage and gas peakers to provide the last 10-20%, which for any rational analysis leans towards gas rather than batteries.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Co2 was chosen as the bad doggy, because it is the most common thing released by everything. It is quite the racket and game forced upon the earths inhabitants. The latest I saw was that pets, dogs and cats should be banned do to their carbon paw print. Oil deep in the earth? There was never any sort of life in the depths of the earth, only pressure, heat, and some H2o, and minerals, hmmm and why it always was called mineral oil, until a certain bunch invented the "fossil fuel" term, to fit the agenda. A clean renewable resource that is carbon neutral because it comes from earth.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Sorry enginesrus... but CO2 is bad... it's the stuff that's helping to heat the planet. Maybe someone is catching on... New York may be following California... pipe

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/19/new-york-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Yup New York is another posterboy for the Field of Dreams approach to energy system management. Set the targets, mandate closing down the existing infrastructure, explicitly or implicitly, and wait for solutions to turn up. Currently Australia has proposed a slightly less ludicrous version of the same approach, which failed to meet its first target, while also imposing price caps on fuels and windfall taxes. So I expect the entire energy industry will walk away from Australia's market due to sovereign risk.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

No dik it is not (Co2). Its just something to blame, and to be able to regulate. Mean while the weather extremes continue, pretty much started Jan 20, 2021, like everything else did.
So I guess we are now back to global "Cooling" ? Till summer time anyway.
The stuff that heats the planet is the sun dik. It is the High and Low pressure area's that determine the weather, the weather is the climate. The gases such as Co2 just blow away in the wind and get absorbed by plant life. Really
simple stuff and a good invention to boot.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

NY:
6,000 MW of Solar by 2025
70% Renewable Energy by 2030
3,000 MW of Energy Storage by 2030
9,000 MW of Offshore Wind by 2035
100% Carbon-free Electricity by 2040
85% Reduction in GHG Emissions from 1990 levels by 2050


https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Energy-Sto...

2022 offshore wind: 30 MW
2022 storage: zero (not too sure they mean MW of storage, that's how technically illiterate this plan is)

Average demand in NY is 16000 MW, so they are planning to fail, judging by the numbers I got in A Simple Challenge (8 hours per day offshore, 4 hours per day solar, a week of calm dull days every couple of years). They are also going to make EVs preferred if not compulsory (keeps me in a job but ...).



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The really frustrating part is that the same mentality wants to cripple our energy infrastructure also wants high density everything. High density requires climate control where I could survive year round in my single family home without any energy towards climate control. It just makes no sense.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI


(TugboatEng (Marine/Ocean)
21 Dec 22 22:20
The really frustrating part is that the same mentality wants to cripple our energy infrastructure also wants high density everything. High density requires climate control where I could survive year round in my single family home without any energy towards climate control. It just makes no sense. )

Makes perfect sense. Proves its an agenda not a problem.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (The stuff that heats the planet is the sun dik.)


...and a lot of that heat escapes back into space. The CO2 acts as an insulation layer that prevents it from leaving the earth's surface. The high and low pressure areas will increase and decrease respectively and will cause more intense weather condition. We have no idea of what extreme is possible... even the weather models are not able to represent the changes posssible.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The weather models can't represent the change because the people making the models are incompetent. They don't know the difference between temperature and heat. The exclude enthalpy from their models.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

2

Quote (dik)

The CO2 acts as an insulation layer that prevents it from leaving the earth's surface.

As I understand it, it's related to heat radiation. Where the heat radiating off the surface hits the CO2 which then reflects SOME of the heat back towards earth as opposed to all of it radiating out into space. I supposed that's pretty close to what you said. I just though your statement came a little too close to "greenhouse effect" which was always a false term, because nothing is confined as it is in a greenhouse.

Tug, what you're getting wrong is that these climate modelers are not all idiots and I assure you they do understand these concepts pretty well. Where they fail is that the tend to look at CO2 as the only variable that changes (a huge exaggeration, I know). In a climate, atmosphere like ours, EVERY variable is constantly changing. Even the amount of sunlight that is received. My point, is really that it's an impossible task to get these climate models correct enough to be truly predictive. The point, however, is that we have a good idea where we're headed (increased temperatures) and why (excessive atmospheric CO2 due to carbon based fuel emissions).

The alarmist are both correct and wrong at the same time. We should be alarmed. There is a very real chance that there will be very dire consequences from the increased warming. The questions should be what can we do about it? Can we limit it? If so, at what cost? Then we compare that cost to the cost of mitigation measures?

If sea levels are expected to rise, is it more efficient to move people out of low lying regions and build sea walls. Or, is it a more efficient solution to completely change our economy and somewhat dictate to China, India and all other countries that they MUST change their economies as well.

I personally think our "efficient" solution has to be a little of both. Like, make clean energy changes to our economy as much as is possible for us. This means, among other things, teaching our population not to fear nuclear fission power anymore. It also means being willing to assign tariffs to any country's imports that don't take similar actions. Maybe a global "shipping tax" that can be used to encourage more local production of goods and less shipping them half way around the world.

But, it also means being better prepared for extreme weather events.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
New CO2 reduction. It's a start...

https://www.newsteelconstruction.com/wp/tata-steel...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Thanks Josh... I was trying to put it into simple terms, so more people could understand. I suspect it's called the greenhouse effect because it acts as a greenhouse, a bit. Sunlight comes in heats the surfaces, and the glass acts as an insulator/barrier to trap the heat.

Quote (Where they fail is that the tend to look at CO2 as the only variable)


I'm well aware of many variables and some of the interaction among them. It starts with addressing the causes and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. My concern is that none of this is happening... it's just not a politically 'nice' thing to do. Construction of seawalls, although nice, is not a real 'fix'; and is a trivial consequence compared to some of the others. It's temporarily fixing a problem, not addressing the problem. There could be large areas of the earth's surface that are not inhabitable, and due to drought/high precipitation there could be serious effects on food supply. The geopolitical consequences of this could be unimaginable. These are some of my concerns, with the big one being that no one seems to be addressing the real problem.


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (Josh)

Where they fail is that the tend to look at CO2 as the only variable that changes (a huge exaggeration, I know). In a climate, atmosphere like ours, EVERY variable is constantly changing.

I accept that the process is too complicated to be effectively modeled but there is a most basic and fundamental error that all climate scientists make. They draw a direct correlation between temperature and energy and this simply isn't true. I can't be concerned when warned of a 1°C temperature rise as that is an incomplete description. Get back to me when a climate scientist warns of an average increase with units of kJ/kg.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Is this sufficient? I don't know how many kgs there are in the oceans, but I suspect there are a few... pipe

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Yes, now we're on the right track.

Interesting that the ocean is only reaching energy levels seen 200 years ago. That's hardly the geologic time scale often used to dismiss critics.

Conversely, the temperature and energy content of the ocean are closely related as the specific heat of the ocean doesn't vary much.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The heat capacity of the oceans is 1000 times that of the atmosphere. So even if we had instrumentation in the ocean that gave a good estimate, an unmeasurably small 0.01 deg C in the ocean is the same heat content as 10 deg C in the atmosphere.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
It could be a sign of things to come...

"More than 200 million people, or about 60 percent of the United States population, were under some form of winter weather advisory or warning on Friday, the National Weather Service said. The agency’s weather map “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever”, forecasters said in a statement."

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2022/12/23/photo...

and more from another source

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64083129

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
...maybe climate change, Greg. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Oh we know, it is the theory that can simultaneously explain droughts and floods, blizzards and heatwaves and so on and so forth. So how's the cherry blossoms?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/could-cherry-...

and of of course Pommie kids will never know what snow is
https://web.archive.org/web/20150912124604/http://...

unless they put their phones down and look out the window tomorrow
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/met-o...






Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (Pommie kids)


That's not the usual noun I've heard the adjective 'Pommie' used with. We have snow and about -28C here right now... they're missing stuff...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Maybe not a trendy term back then, but the timing is still within the current 'climate change' envelope. How often do these anomalies have to occur before people realise that there may be bigger issues on the horizon? I sure hope you're right, but I'm not sure... where am I going, and why am I in this handbasket? ponder

Merry Christmas to all... and all the best in the New Year.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Bomb cyclones aren't an anomaly. They are a weather pattern that is endemic to certain regions. They might not follow the typical seasonal pattern because they require the timing of a few normal events to coincide in addition to seasonal patterns. They have always been a thing, always will be.

You said it, climate change is a trendy term.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
dozens of fatalities... and this might only be the beginning. Unfortunately there could be more of this stuff to come. pipe

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64091560

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (They are a weather pattern that is endemic to certain regions.)


...and with climate change, air pressure highs are increasing and lows are decreasing. With these changes, bomb cyclones will become more prevalent. Hold on to your hats, folks. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Extreme weather and climate change from the BBC: pipe

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58073...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I've said it before, cold weather kills more than hot weather. A bit of warming can only be a good thing.

Quote (dik)

and with climate change, air pressure highs are increasing and lows are decreasing. With these changes, bomb cyclones will become more prevalent. Hold on to your hats, folks. pipe

And this is not a factual statement.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Sorry Tugboat... and the rate of change can be greater; this is what causes the bomb cyclone.
pipe

https://www.scidev.net/global/news/climate-change-...

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/01/underst...

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/10/04/attri...

https://medium.com/earthsphere/climate-change-brin...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Oh great, they invented a new type of science, "attribution science". Instead of learning why weather events happen scientist are now researching ways to blame them on climate change. Galileo must be rolling in his grave.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

We drove the western halfway of NY's I-90/Thruway this morning on our way home. Buffalo had about a foot of snow on the ground and the Thruway was officially "closed" per the digital signage yet busy rolling ~75 mph, hoping that means we dont get billed for tolls. Roads up in the Adirondacks were far worse with 3-4' of fresh snowfall a few days ago but overall not bad. We put 1-200 miles each day on mostly dirt roads visiting old friends and only used 4wd a few times to avoid tearing up dirt driveways. As far as winter storms, this one was pretty normal for the area, nvm the political grandstanding.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (As far as winter storms, this one was pretty normal for the area, nvm the political grandstanding.)


Do you usually have 16 fatalities? or, is this just normal? ponder

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/buffalo-new-y...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
That's still within the time frame for post industrial climate change. Is that including the 23 from Texas? or is it the Buffalo area? How many fatalities in the '75 storm? and, any in the Buffalo area? Just curious... ponder

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
New numbers for Buffalo...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64096509

The Edmund Fitzgerald was another issue, and one that could have been avoided... maybe a bit of criminal neglegence involved.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Remember that the population of many areas has more than doubled since 1975 so regional weather is going to be more deadly due to that factor alone.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Depends on the year. Buffalo is one of our poorest cities, in one of the highest cost-of-living states, with some of the most expensive energy stateside, and at the moment we're in a major recession with energy costs significantly above the norm. When the party in charge is hellbent on running up energy costs, running down the economy, and spending like drunk sailors these things happen. The fact that they blamed global-warming for poor folks freezing to death while voting for a $32k/state-legislator pay raise is sadly ironic.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
and technology and medical care have improved to offset the population increase.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I dunno... but it seemed to be as silly an arguement.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

This quote sums things up well.

Quote (Michael Chriton)

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

A distant relative was a journo for a quality UK newspaper. He reckoned the best reporting was in Business and Sports, as they were two areas where the readers had expertise and could and would challenge poor journalism.

Frankly most 'sciencey' reporting should be on the Opinion page, there's usually a distinct sound of barrows being pushed and data being tortured.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Meanwhile the wunderkind in the global stupidity stakes is Germany. Having got rid of coal powerstations, nukes, forests and so on in their pursuit of green Nirvana, they are now proposing to spend 7% of GDP subsidising consumers' energy bills. If I ruled a country the total government shakedown would only be 45%, but hey just another 7%, that's water under the bridge for the chicken littles. Meanwhile the release of the NY state energy 'plan' is attracting negative vibes. Let's see what happens when team moron in Oz release theirs. If you can't make renewables work in Oz, on the basis that the sun is always shining somewhere, and the wind is always blowing somewhere, on a continent wide scale, how on Earth do smaller networks with less spatial averaging hope to cope? Hope is a thing from Hallmark card mottos, not engineering.

Sure, these worked, and are fantastic


But this slightly unfair example


and the like, is why bits of wood and hope are no longer regarded as cutting edge engineering.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

And back to Texas, merely because North Mexico is amusing


Hang on kids, you are peeing in your saddles because electricity reached 50 c /kWh? did you know in the renewable wonderland of South Australia the unemployable munchkins are paying that now, even when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining? Of course they are sucking up as much coal and whatever from interstate so they don't have to fire up the diesels.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Stuk [sik] in the past... pipe

https://theintercept.com/2022/12/24/oil-gas-climat...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Greg,

Could you please start a new thread for your posts? It's kind of a pain to scroll through all the other nonsense to find what you have written.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
and counting... pipe

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64099642

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
I was wondering how insurance companies were handling this:

https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/12/2022/ins...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Carbon footprint of food stuff: pipe

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221214-what-i...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I've seen that chart before, it's an oldie. Anyways, their logic is flawed. Think about this. When a plant dies it decomposes into methane. When a cow eats plants it converts them into fats which don't decompose so readily or are decomposed into CO2 which has less GHG potential. Cows literally sequester greenhouse gasses.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

I dunno... but it seemed to be as silly an arguement.

Unlike many of your posts for the last 6 threads?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Maybe sillier... I'm a big fan of Monty Pyton...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Here's to the New Year...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Yes the Arctic and Siberia has warmed up a bit. Averages are a nice way of emphasising the unimportant.



Now, using your engineering head, as opposed to global warming scream monkey, what would your graph look like if we concentrated on where people mostly live, given what the map shows?

Cheers

Greg Locock


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RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Now, using your engineering head, as opposed to global warming denial monkey, what would your graph look like if we concentrated how the global climate affects where people mostly live, given what the map shows?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

I think the global warming acceptors lack the engineering head as they don't even understand the difference between energy and temperature.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

PS I'm not a denialist, I agree that the largely anthropogenic increase in CO2 (and other correlated effects) is responsible for a majority of the temperature rise since 1880. So according to the bogus studies on consensus I'm inside the consensus.

But

I don't see any sign we are really doing much that is effective about it
It would be vastly better to adapt to any changes (which are mostly trivial and have known solutions) rather than trying to do the impossible.
Transferring manufacturing to 'developing' countries is of no net benefit, in fact CO2 wise it is probably a backward step.
If we are going to decarbonize (especially energy generation) then there needs to be a sensible plan, not Field of Dreams announcements by pollies and their cronies.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (I don't see any sign we are really doing much that is effective about it)


That's the really sad part... and we have no idea of what the end result could be.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

The end result will be: life goes on.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Quote (The end result will be: life goes on.)


I can just imagine the dinosaurs thinking, "My, isn't that a beautiful shooting star!"

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

It would be vastly better to adapt to any changes (which are mostly trivial and have known solutions) rather than trying to do the impossible.

So, forget batteries, switch to natural gas rather than coal, and ideally nuclear instead of natural gas. Mandate EVs if you like, but it is not a cost effective way to reduce CO2

Malaria increasing? bring back DDT

Sea level rising? Stop pumping out the groundwater under your cities, stop draining the marshes around them, build seawalls.

Floods? stop building houses in floodplains you idiots

Forest fires? Vastly increased penalties for deliberate starts, reintroduce known techniques to reduce fuel load. Oh and stop building houses like mine set in fire prone forests.

Droughts? stop growing almonds in California, stop growing cotton and rice in Australia. Desal drinking water is slightly more expensive than riverine water, but taking a look at these

https://www.statista.com/statistics/478870/leading...

the high end is 6 bucks a tonne, so another 70c/ tonne isn't exactly the end of the world. Of course ag expects to pay far less than that for water (typically 20c/tonne in Oz but it varies), which seems to me as though it might be part of the problem. here's a map for California , an acre foot is roughly 1200 tonnes



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Quote (dik)

I can just imagine the dinosaurs thinking, "My, isn't that a beautiful shooting star!"

How is this relevant?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)

Think about it for a bit... I'm pretty sure you will catch on... pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
We should move this on to Part VII...

thread1618-501135: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

So you're saying we should live our best life and damn the consequences because they are beyond our control?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
What consequences? and what are we really doing to try to fix the problem, if it is fixable?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Who cares about consequences when a meteor is going to blow everything up anyways?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

(OP)
Interesting... one event you have no control over, the other one you do.pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up Part VI

Would you consider life on Earth better before or after the meteor?

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