Not politics, legislation of the wrong kind.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Not sure I’d trust the Conservation for an impartial assessment of climate politics. The Conversation officially forbids any sort of climate skepticism on their site. This includes their articles, and any public comments.

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-deniers...

You must worship gravity tower or face permanent ban.

You're not far off, unfortunately.

More news from elsewhere...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BM9-Q8xnrEU

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

and...

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/06/colorado-...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Even in '87, when my mother rafted the colorado with a women's group, it was stressed. They had to schedule it a certain time or or something because of irrigation and generation draws from the river. Maybe it was certain rapids were only passable if the generation deductions were small.

It seems to be getting worse... they have less than two months to decide how they will address this before the federal government steps in.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I know... you get rain all the time...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11011193/...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik,
Having a hard time following you. Who is/are “you” in that post?

I'm just highlighting some of the ugly 'coming up' and it could get a lot uglier.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Surprising how hard it is to convince adult engineers what is happening in front of their eyes.

Keep the faith dik

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

“Adult engineers” are convinced by facts and evidence. It is a fact that Death Valley is a hot location, and it is also a fact that flash flooding occurs in the ridge and valley topography of Appalachia. But are those facts evidence of worldwide climate change? I think not, but dik is influenced by many anecdotal events.

The Dismal River. Wonder how it got that name?

The pictures I see appear to be houses built on a flood zone beside the river. I'm not sure what the message should be, but I'm not going right to climate change. It appears to be stupidity more than anything.

Sorry Hokie... the anecdotal stuff (ie. facts and evidence) just corroborates the science.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Soooo…what’s the temperature in Death Valley today? Because it is crucial to the debate.

Although only deniers call it a ‘debate’.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

not really germaine, but approximately...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

...more anecdotes:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/1...

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/longform/2022/7...

and

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-wors...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Lionel,
Dismal River is an apt name for a stream that flows through that dismal part of Appalachia. Ever seen the movie ‘Deliverance’? Similar sort of country and people.

At some point, you have to wonder what evidence it takes for some people to reevaluate their position.

One end of the country has had a half dozen 1% storm events in the past 30 years, and the other end is enduring a 0.1% drought.

Ask highway maintenance engineers if they've noticed weather patterns changing.

My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5

Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. - http://xkcd.com/319/

Cherry picked anecdotal stuff (ie. facts and evidence) just corroborates the sciencey sounding scare stories.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Yes Greg, and it could even get scarier...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Yes, the stories you and others are spreading do tend to scare some folks.

Hokie, not enough it would appear.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Quote (GregLocock)

Cherry picked anecdotal stuff (ie. facts and evidence) just corroborates the sciencey sounding scare stories.

That’s your story and you’re sticking to it.

If you’re not scared you’re not paying attention (or have your head buried in the sand. Possibly the magical energy storing kind).

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

In the 1990's we talked about terraforming mars. I guess we gave up on human driven climate change.

It is the new religion. The climate changes, therefore a belief formed that we can reverse the changes, otherwise we are doomed.

"The climate changes, therefore a belief formed that we" are responsible for the change and we "can reverse the changes, otherwise we are doomed."

Maybe we are responsible, maybe it's primarily a natural process.

Maybe we can reverse it, maybe we can't (that we've initiated some natural process, the "tipping point", and we're already doomed).

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

The only thing that is certain is that we are an adaptable species therefore we are not doomed.

Quote:

It is the new religion. The climate changes, therefore a belief formed that we can reverse the changes, otherwise we are doomed.

The new religion is Denialism

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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Denialism of what?

when did questioning something become "denialism" ?

when did questioning "it's obvious ..." become denialism ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Can we get back to examples of effects and examples of Climate Change.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

But that's what we get bombarded with every day. It's more constructive to share counter-examples.

Once someone calls themselves a "climate scientist" they can no longer be trusted. Their career and livelihood is solely based on how much shock and fear they drum up. Any climate scientist that concludes everything is fine or this is normal is essentially saying their career was superfluous.

Tug... I'd appreciate any postings where there has been a marked improvement in things... a new item:

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/...

Lorenz' butterfly, anyone?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Anthropogenic: it’s a thing, google it.

In one way denial is a natural response to problems that have a massive scale. Our brains prefer to switch off in the face of seemingly overwhelming situations. We do the same with (for just a few examples) the opioid epidemic, the toxic legacy of slavery, and violence against women.

That becomes aggravated in a milieu that is saturated in the mythology of self-determination, authority over nature, and exceptionalism (yes I’m talking about you, Yanks).

When you live in Disneyland, expect Mickey Mouse solutions.

I suppose I have now set the cat among the pigeons here.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Here is one that won't make people happy:

https://www.nersc.gov/news-publications/nersc-news...

The warming is caused by our energy consumption, not our CO2 emissions. As a result, renewables won't improve the situation.

They need rainfall, depending on how much... why unhappy? Maybe warming is caused by a combination of several issues?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

TBE, I actually read the link to the news item (it’s not a report or paper) and I call BS.

You’re not even cherry picking, you’re totally making stuff up.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Play nice...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Doh, I posted the wrong link.

https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.asp...

This is the one about energy consumption causing warming.

...and to reiterate...

Maybe warming is caused by a combination of several issues?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

The qualitative analyses presented here have shown that the use of so-called renewable energy sources does not necessarily lead to the avoidance of global warming. It can be expected that some techniques will have no or even small effect.

But these are extremely important issues to consider. It's worse than small or no effect, though. The amount of energy we release to go renewable is not going to be reversible if we find there effective reduction in heat output.

Quote (TugboatEng)

The amount of energy we release to go renewable is not going to be reversible if we find there effective reduction in heat output.

I consider myself to be 95 percentile in literacy among engineers but I can’t make sense of this, technically or otherwise.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Building wind, solar, and battery farms while replacing all vehicles on the road is going to consume a lot of energy making global warming worse, not better.

Is that clear enough for you?

Yes!
Your nonsensical conclusion is now more understandable.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

So what is nonsense about it? Put that 95th percentile group brain to work.

I don't know where this is going, but I suspect there will be some major changes in the next couple of decades. I won't be around to appreciate them, but the changes will directly affect my kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

...a sign of good things on the horizon...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11016143/...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Not gonna look at it but the Daily Mail is one of the worst of the UK redtop snotrags. That’s saying something, because the competition is ferocious.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

TBE,
Your twisty words again, not mine.
What keeps it in tip top shape is not over exerting it chasing diversions and arguing imaginary points with committed deniers. I recommend it to everyone.
Think I’ll go for a lie down, then afterward attempt to break my own Rubik’s cube world record. Tomorrow I’ll finish my paper on string theory.
Cheers

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote:

Tomorrow I’ll finish my paper on string theory.

Might you work on your Unified Field Theory paper instead? That might be more useful

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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Dik,
Have you seen the light? Good to see that you agree with Senator Manchin.

It just gets better and better...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/15/how-the-u...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Have you seen the light?)

Not yet... still gloom at the end of the tunnel... I'm waiting for that freight train, any time now...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

...and seem to be getting hotter.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11016869/...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Too busy getting stoned to entertain any thoughts?

What does temperature have to do with wildfire? That's a humidity problem. More gaslighting I guess.

Anyways wildfire has always been a subject in Mediterranean climates, we share the same here in California.

https://www.nps.gov/subjects/fire/indigenous-fire-...

Also, dik, the stoner does not approve of your source.

Brim, my accidental link did have a link to the study.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...

Top carbon footprint producers... gotta start loppin' at the top!

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3559...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (What does temperature have to do with wildfire?)

Maybe the heat dries stuff out so it burns easier?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Some good news...

https://theconversation.com/australians-are-instal...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik,

All this news isn’t real, it’s just you and your downer attitude, cherry picking trivial climate events from obscure conspiracist news outlets like the NY Times and the BBC. You must remember that at this moment, over 99% of the land surface is NOT burning up and NOT under water. Wouldn’t you agree 99% is a very good score? Focus on the positive!

If you could just adopt a sunnier disposition all these problems would evaporate. (Sorry if I hurt Lake Mead’s feelings there with those last words.)

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

brims... these anomalities for the 1% of the planet, don't seem to be letting up. Being bright and cheerie, and ignoring the effects, will not diminish the outcomes.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik, regions like Vietnam are very hot yet don't burn so much. Maybe the temperature (heat means something else) isn't the problem?

Hilarious, classic Tug!

Dik,
Your heart and brain are in the right place, but seriously, you need to raise your sarcasm detection game!

Cheers

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

No sarcasm. The Sahara is also very hot and doesn't burn much. Temperature doesn't cause fires.

Tug,
Try to read more carefully, was I talking to you about sarcasm?
You may think you are doing sarcasm, but it comes off as a desperate compulsion to rebut any and all news presented here by others that conflicts with your rigid worldview, by any tactic necessary. Stuff that you might get away with in competitive debating or interweb fora but not in the realm of scientific discussion.
I know this because (among my many other talents) I am a past master at applied sarcasm. You would not believe the fraction of my mental energy that i have to devote to self-monitoring for sarcasm at the office, toward people who really really need to hear it.
But something I’ve discovered is that the folks who need sarcasm the most are the ones least likely to register it. A great pity that!

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote:

The Sahara is also very hot and doesn't burn much. Temperature doesn't cause fires.

Crock, of course, since the Sahara is nearly devoid of trees; some claim that's because people burned all the trees to do farming.

Try to start a fire without a heat source.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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Hypergolic.

Nowhere on Earth is the atmosphere hot enough to "start a fire". And it still won't be after climate change, either.

Well that rules out spontaneous combustion as a trigger for starting fires in forests or humans.

We’ve advanced the discussion here.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Lightning strikes are the most common natural cause of fires.

Blaming fires on 1 degree of temperature rise is silly. That is all.

Quote:

Blaming fires on 1 degree of temperature rise is silly. That is all.

the hotter the temperature, the less likely wood retains any moisture that might have slowed down ignition/combustion. Properly hydrated plants resist burning; dry wood burns quite well..

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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Quote:

Lightning strikes are the most common natural cause of fires.

Where's your data? US Forest Service says otherwise 85% caused by humans

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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I said natural cause.

High temperature can also increase the moisture content of the air. Most rain forests exist in the tropics. It's a bit of a reach to say higher temperatures will cause aridification.

1 degree rise in average temperature over the planet has a massive impact, which you should acknowledge if you’re being honest (and because you are always lecturing on thermodynamics).

A figure from a very old TV doc has stuck with me: a 1 deg C rise in mean temperature in a particular agricultural region in E N America increased (statistically) the growing season from 90 to 105 days. I’d say that’s a very big impact. In my lifetime I’ve observed the frost-free season increase dramatically. When I was a kid there would be frost in May and September, with the odd exception neither has happened in 30 years. I’ve several times seen April and October be frost-free. Frost is the kind of thing even a small child recognizes, yet adults argue about it.

1 degree also increases the moisture carrying capacity of air significantly, contributing to more intense tropical storms.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (TugboatEng)

Lightning strikes are the most common natural cause of fires.

And it is safer to be thrown from the vehicle in a collision than to be restrained by a seatbelt.

It took 30 years of campaigns, data collection, and finally laws to overcome that no brain behaviour, so what will it take to change fossil fuel behaviours when vehicles are a de facto pillar of our belief system?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

...and on the other side of the pond. 30 years ahead of their time; I wonder where this will end?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/15/weather/2050-uk...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

dik,

Please explain why you think the article from Australia about all the problems with rooftop solar maintenance is 'good news'. Or was that some sort of sarcasm, like brimstoner's? Maybe you just don't read your own links.

They are trying to address the problems with fossil fuels in a positive fashion, I think. Every little bit helps.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Like I thought, you just read the headline, which does not reflect the subject matter of the article.

The mean anomaly between the 2050 'prediction' and 2022 actual is a mere 6.4 deg C, approximately 4 centuries of warming.

Has this thread reached peak stupidity yet? No, I know it'll get worse.


2050 2022 delta
30 19 11
38 27 11
32 26 6
38 32 6
39 37 2
43 34 9
40 40 0

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Talking to Americans

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

This thread is pathetic. I'm not even looking at any more links because apparently every single hot day, cold day, rain storm, heat wave and forest fire is now caused by climate change, and yet the people pushing this agenda by spewing that nonsense wonder why they get push back. Sure, CO2 has gone up and sure the world seems to be warming, but pointing out that every single weather event that makes the news is proof the climate is changing is complete complete and utter hogwash. You'd think engineer would know this more than the average person but apparently not.

Lionel, very well said.

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

It is Hokie, but it's a move in the right direction.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"No, I know it'll get worse." ... true dat ! arguing with an engineer is like wrestling with a pig ...

wot, you get lipstick on yourself ?

the whole point to this argument (it gave up being a debate a long time ago) is that the climate is changing and we are burning FFs. Some people link the two either because it's obvious or because it suits their personal outlook or because they have some data supporting this linkage. Others don't link them because it is not obvious or because it suits their personal outlook or because they have some data refuting the linkage. And then there's politics and money.

The issue is that to stop burning FFs will impose an unacceptable cost on our civilisation (my money is still on civil unrest will be the ultimate downfall of our civilisation, and will usher in a new dark age, but hopefully not in the next 30 years) and may not fix the problem either. We can't even agree on relatively modest (but still painful) measures like a moratorium on mining and burning coal. But we can have trading schemes (or scams) such that some people get rich and the expense of others with no real change to anything and we keep playing the game.

sigh ...

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

I wish brimstoner hadn't derailed this thread so badly. I tried to post an interesting observation that the warming that we have seen can be accounted for by our energy consumption and is not connected to the source of the energy. Even if we were to go 100% solar we would not reduce our contribution to warming. We need to focus on conservation, not renewables.

more heating up...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11022169/...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik, could you please include commentary in your posts? We want to know your thoughts, not dailymail's.

Pot kettle black TBE.

Carry on helping mankind with whataboutery and conspiracy politics.

I have full awareness and self-awareness. You don’t have a clue. You have to open your ears before having any possibility of opening your mind.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

rb1957,

That should the last word. I know I’m done with this cluster of a thread.

p.s., FFs is the appropriate term for this

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Sums it up.

Have a good life brimstone.

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

Pud... the BBC has similar news, and I don't think the Daily Mail photoshopped those photos:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62196045

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik, photography is an art, it does not always represent reality.

Yes tug... but some people at the UN are starting to get concerned...but, they are probably overreacting... whoda thought there would be over a million American fatalities from Covid?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/1...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

1 million fatalities "with" COVID...

semantics; he didn't die from cancer, he died with cancer... most of them avoidable, nonetheless

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

You beat me to it dik.
Just one small data point.
I wouldn’t worry too much.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Avoidable? That doesn't make any sense.

Not just semantics. I've got a persistent hangnail on my right foot that I'll probably die with, and not from.
It's been a popular sport to try and second guess the authorities on what exactly the causes of death are. Link

If one dies from hypoxia, due to suffocation, due to pneumonia, due to covid; some would say to put this in one of the three categories that are not covid.

It sure does... based on per Million population... China's total death rate is 4, India is 373, New Zealand 348, and the US is 3169... a whopping difference, and yes, most deaths, taking proper care, were avoidable. Considering the better medical care available they should have been down at the bottom, but no so.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

steve... you can manipulate the numbers a little bit... but, not that much. Good luck with your hangnail, fortunately they are not often fatal.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Steve, interesting that your link says Influenza accounted for 48% of COVID deaths. How is that possible?

I know some of you will rabidly disagree with "data" but these are facts. The only cherrypicking is happening by people claiming "this is all normal".

Citing a China death rate number as fact in an argument.

I know of someone run over by a car while riding a bicycle whos cause of death was covid and another who just died and the doctor wanted to put covid on the death certificate but the family refused to allow it. Around here they got paid extra for every covid case.

That enough talk of Covid in a climate change forum.

Quote:

The issue is that to stop burning FFs will impose an unacceptable cost on our civilisation (my money is still on civil unrest will be the ultimate downfall of our civilisation, and will usher in a new dark age, but hopefully not in the next 30 years) and may not fix the problem either. We can't even agree on relatively modest (but still painful) measures like a moratorium on mining and burning coal. But we can have trading schemes (or scams) such that some people get rich and the expense of others with no real change to anything and we keep playing the game.

Yes, everyone cries about how we have to end CO2 emissions, but very little is spoken about how difficult and imposing it will be to actually stop. Not just posture about doing good, but actually stopping. Fossil fuel usage is an incredible amount of energy that wind and solar don't have a hope in hell of replacing. TBE is correct, we'll only get there if we figure out how to conserve or massively cut our energy usage.

Lionel... I concur about China's numbers, but they're the only published data I could find... they could be open to interpretation... the US number is still 10x as high as India or New Zealand which I have more confidence in... to reiterate there is a whopping unnecessary loss of lives.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RVAMeche

Nicely cherry picked data. The mass media will be proud of you.

Here's a longer term picture of real data from the UK Met Office, showing that recent rates of change are not unusual, at least in the UK
https://res.cloudinary.com/engineering-com/image/u...


and here's a reconstruction of temperatures since the last ice age from NASA , unfortunately it doesn't use the same proxies throughout leading to the usual cut and paste error. We are a tiny bit warmer than 7000 years ago.

https://twitter.com/nasaclimate/status/12755599817...






Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

...and a whole bunch warmer than 22,000 years back... with no sign of it diminishing, it would seem. That to me is the scary part. As they say, Chicken Little only has to be right,
once.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

My thoughts on this topic are (somewhat) complicated. Verbally, I get attacked by both sides before they hear me out. (But this being written out....maybe I'll get a fair hearing) Up front I'll tell you: we are likely changing the environment.....and doing something about that should be near a top priority for every government. And I think nuke is going to have to be a big part of the solution too. (Something even James Hansen is on board with.)

That being said.....I kind of wince at the proof that gets thrown out there. To say we are having these all time records.....when we don't have a lot of temperature data prior to just a few hundred years ago isn't good. At lets not pull any punches here: the wrong predictions of some people on my side of the aisle undermines our credibility. I remember back in the 80's/90's (for example) there was this magazine cover that showed NYC under water by this point due to global warming. (Remember the movie The Day After Tomorrow?) In more recent years I remember some guy on Bill Maher's show talking about "where will we get another Iowa?" [when the mid-west is 150^oF at some point in the future; the numerous problems with that statement being quite obvious].)

So yeah, I think it's enough to say we should be addressing this.....but I would put it quite simply: if one-side is wrong, so what? We get a cleaner environment with (possibly) cheaper sources of energy. If the other side is wrong....we got problems.

Anyway....my 2 cents.

I concur with you WARose... and add a couple of items. There can be huge geopolitical changes brought about by starvation, caused by drought, and lack of land, and I have no idea of where this goes... even so far as if a country has water and arable land and the neighbour doesn't... It could get very interesting.

It's not just a matter of finding alternate sources, it's a matter of cutting back. That includes transportation, vacation travel, development of high speed trains, building things with a lifetime (no more disposable fridges, etc.) and huge social changes. I don't know if we're up to it or if this can be done in time.

Covid gave the world and excellent opportunity to work as a 'united world'... see how far that got.

Off my apple box...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

WARose, thanks for that breath of realism. I definitely agree with your last points; the probable outcome is indeed grim, and there's really no upside to pretending there's no "there" there.

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If Wolfram Vogelsberger from my previous link is correct and our warming can be attributed directly to heating from energy consumption then nuclear/solar/wind/hydro will not be an improvement.

Vogelsberger is incorrect; if the enthalpy today can cause the temperature rise, then the temperature shouldn't have risen anywhere near as much as it has.

https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-stati...

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IRS... if you look at the OECD data on a per capita basis you get a lot more appreciation for the 'mess' we are in.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

That's exactly what he says, though. The energy consumption should have raised our temperature by 1°C at this point in time and that's about what we have observed. Greenhouse gasses may also be a factor but chasing them down may make the situation worse as they aren't a primary contributor.

Quote:

That's exactly what he says, though. The energy consumption should have raised our temperature by 1°C at this point in time and that's about what we have observed. Greenhouse gasses may also be a factor but chasing them down may make the situation worse as they aren't a primary contributor.

Vogelsberger is basically assuming, then, that every climate scientist is incorrect and incompetent, and ignoring the energy balance equation, and only he is smart enough to do it correctly. And if his calculation is that this is where we're supposed to be based on enthaply, then he's still wrong, because most models had underestimated the amount of heat sunk by the oceans, so the only reason we're only +1°C is because the oceans sucked up way more heat that previously assumed possible, so the amount of heat that's out of balance is much more than what the temperature anomaly indicates.

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Quote (RVAMeche)

I know some of you will rabidly disagree with "data" but these are facts. The only cherrypicking is happening by people claiming "this is all normal".

That bell curve is one thing, but we're constantly told that climate change increases the amount of extremes at both end, hot AND COLD. This is the reason given for snow storms, cold winters, heavy rains, etc. It ALL the result of climate change.

Yet the bell curve indicates a simple reduction in the amount of cold. So which is it? Is it getting hotter with a corresponding reduction in cold? Or is there are gain at both ends, with more hot AND more cold?

IR, climate scientists, what we see of them in the media, lack the most fundamental understanding of thermodynamics. The constant talk of temperature instead of heat is evidence. You even said it, they underestimated how much heat the ocean can sink. It's as if they don't appreciate the specific heat of water vs. air.

I don't think they even understand the basic mechanisms. Evaporation increases the specific heat of the atmosphere which does slow warming. Maybe the heat isn't being sunk by the ocean at all. Has the specific heat of our atmosphere increased as a result of global warming? What is the quantity of energy stored in our atmosphere? Why are these basic thermodynamics questions never asked?

What types of degrees allow one to call themselves a "climate scientist"? Is there even a definition of a "climate scientist"?

Quote:

climate scientists, what we see of them in the media, lack the most fundamental understanding of thermodynamics. The constant talk of temperature instead of heat is evidence.

No, that's because the measure of heat IS the temperature; there is no surrogate for heat in units of megajoules that can be measured. Temperature rise IS the indication of heat rise; even Fourier's Law is written that way.

The fact that you ignore that and attack scientists belies any serious point you could possibly make.

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I see you've never used a psychometric chart.

No, heat can't be measured directly but heat is absolutely not temperature. However, knowing the composition of the atmosphere, water content being the most variable component hence the psychrometer, one can make a very reasonable estimation of the "heat".

I'm not attacking scientists. I don't think climatologists are scientists. I'm attacking climatologists. We have an entire segment dedicated not to understanding the mechanisms of climate change but instead trying to predict how bad it could be. The more dire the prediction the higher their paycheck. Climate scientists absolutely need to be scrutinized at every level. They are a conflict of interest.

I suspect strongly that entalpy is not a fixed value and that it is increasing significantly... any thoughts on that?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

A new report on the fauna of Australia... Why am I in this handbasket, and where am I going?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/19/australia...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

you know what, I stand corrected.

civil unrest would be the downfall of our civilsation. it'll fall as a result of the endless vitriol spewed over this climate change "issue".

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

and more problems on the horizon... we have to start addressing them rather than let them accumulate...

https://marineindustrynews.co.uk/atlantic-ocean-pr...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Dik, that's exactly the question I am asking. Why is there no data on enthalpy?

Quote (it'll fall as a result of the endless vitriol)

I suspect millions of people starving and dying of thirst might have a bit of an impact, too. Whatcha think?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Why is there no data on enthalpy?)

Maybe they cannot keep up with the changes? or maybe recording the changes may be very difficult? I'm surprised that there is not a computer model of this in somebody's basement...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Tomfh's question is certainly applicable to Australia. The whole continent is registering record low temperatures, and the scientists say the most likely reason is buildup of ice in Antarctica.

Yes, we all know you people love to cite "the media" in creating panic and hysteria on the issue while also conveniently claiming all the data is faked.

How about this source - The Artifical Production of Carbon Dioxide, by G.S. Callendar, 1938. Surely "big media" wasn't already influencing scientists almost a hundred years ago? Yes, numbers/calculations vary due to the field in its infancy, but the point remains that the base concept (humans are creating massive amounts of CO2 -> this mostly ends up in the atmosphere -> this has an impact on temperature) was well established even by 1938. Everything since has been trying to figure out precisely HOW BAD things will get and increasing confidence intervals. Hell, simple experiments with glass jars (exactly like it was done in the mid 1800s) will show that CO2 captures more heat than air, nitrogen, or oxygen. Yet otherwise smart people on this site continue to say that even the greenhouse effect itself isn't real.

Excerpt from 1938:


Letter to the President by Office of Science & Technology in 1977 (shocker, the Chief of Staff said that "economic impacts" due to policy change would be too severe":

"I suspect millions of people starving and dying of thirst might have a bit of an impact, too. Whatcha think? ponder" ...

that's what I envisioned with "social unset". now I reckon we won't make it that far ...

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Good letter, RVA. 45 years later and we are nowhere approaching the 5°C in 60 year normal temperature swing. I guess it's a good thing the Chief of Staff ignored the letter.

Quote (The whole continent is registering record low temperatures, and the scientists say the most likely reason is buildup of ice in Antarctica.)

The key word is climate change... some places will get warmer, some will get colder. The net result is that the earth is warming and overall the temperature is going up, with unpredictable results... Hold on to your hat...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Record highs in uk today. My son and me have spent the afternoon in a 200yr old pub with 3ft thick stone walls. Nice and cool, no aircon.

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

Quote:

Record highs in uk today. My son and me have spent the afternoon in a 200yr old pub with 3ft thick stone walls. Nice and cool, no aircon.

Not a global warming thing, so just ignore it; everything is as it should be

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IRS... what happens when it gets hotter and for longer periods of time... just ignore it, too?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Not sure about global warming. Step outside and it's like getting off an aircraft in Spain, Corfu or Canary Isles. Never known it this warm.
Apparently the Romans when they were here, had vineyards as far north as York. Vineyards only in South of England now.(They left in AD410).
Went rabbitting yesterday, even they were staying underground!

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

It appears that Greenland is becoming green again...

https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/07/19/greenland-...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

what happens when it gets hotter and for longer periods of time... just ignore it, too?

Of course, this is all natural and no human was involved in its creation, so revel in it

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IR, dik, you write us off as denialists. But, we think your policies are going to make it worse. We don't like being flooded with daily observations of temperature because they're being used to drum up fear. Fear makes us do irrational things like scrap our energy grid in favor of one that will make things worse both economically and environmentally. That's why we roll out eyes at your sources and question their motivations.

Quote (dik)

The key word is climate change... some places will get warmer, some will get colder.

So which is it? Are some places getting warmer and some getting colder (i.e. the bell curve is widening), or is the bell curve shifting in the warming direction, as per RVAMeche's chart:

Quote (RVAMeche)

It's doing both, the mean is moving up, and the extremes are getting more extreme.

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Quote (IRStuff)

It's doing both, the mean is moving up, and the extremes are getting more extreme

RVAMeche's graph does not show an increase in places getting colder. The graph shows a reduction at the cold end. Is the graph wrong?

Does insulating your house increase the extremes of temperature from one room to the next? There is zero evidence that greenhouse gasses will make climate more extreme. The opposite should happen. With even temperatures we will not see the barometric variations that drive our storms. Extreme weather is just a cop-out when the models don't work.

It appears that Greenland is becoming green again

Precisely. We've been here before. It was called the Holocene Optimum.

Cheers

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Posting while making dinner. Maybe it was a bit too hot in the kitchen. Correction made.

Optimum? If we reach that we can only have decline afterwards. We should do our best to avoid this optimum.

Quote:

The graph shows a reduction at the cold end. Is the graph wrong?

His graph is of average temperatures over the globe, so no extreme temperatures are shown. Nevertheless, the distribution is broadening, so there are positions whose temperature differences are increasing, which implies a possibly greater heat flow between any given two points, which could imply more extreme highs or lows.

However, EPA reports fewer cold temperature extremes, relatively https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-cli....

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@tbe ... I don't think your analogy (comparing the earth's climate system to the inside of your house) is valid.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (Tug)

Extreme weather is just a cop-out when the models don't work.

Yes we see this a lot in Australia. We were told for a long time the models are predicting hotter drier conditions. The local climate scientists told us we were entering permanent drought and desertification was underway on Australia's east coast. Then we get a run of cold wet conditions and they claim it's what the climate science has predicted all along.

Quote (So which is it? Are some places getting warmer and some getting colder)

It can be either... but the net result is that things will get warmer globally.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (IRStuff)

His graph is of average temperatures over the globe, so no extreme temperatures are shown

dik said some places will get colder (a common claim). That statement is inconsistent with the graph. The graph does not show any increase in places getting colder.

Quote (Precisely. We've been here before. It was called the Holocene Optimum.)

That took a little time... this time it will likely occur in our lifetime. Climate change will occur in decades, rather than millinnia.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

rb1957, perhaps I should have compared it to a greenhouse? Do greenhouses have extreme varying temperatures within their enclosure?

I'll admit that there is an extreme variation but not in the way climate scientists would care to acknowledge.

Quote (That statement is inconsistent with the graph.)

Take a gander at AMOC... it is possible that Europe may become colder. We don't know where the pendulum will swing...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

....possible...may....We don't know..

You were very certain a few posts ago.

Quote:

some places will get colder (a common claim). That statement is inconsistent with the graph. The graph does not show any increase in places getting colder.

Given the presumption that significantly hotter temperatures are occurring as indicated by historic heatwaves in places like England, but only an average temperature anomaly of 2 degrees, then there must either be a lot of places with somewhat colder temperatures, or places with commensurately colder temperatures, ala "Polar Vortex" conditions.

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@tbe .. no, greenhouses work completely differently to the atmosphere. They work, AFAIUI, but controlling the moisture inside the greenhouse.

greenhouses are not a good analogy for the atmosphere.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

tom... there is a wide gap of what I suspect strongly, and know for certain. They are largely a series of anecdotes that strongly indicate there are serious problems on the horizon. The first inkling I had about climate change was on a tape recording of a series of cybernetics lectures given by Dr. Ken McLachlan of the University of Southhampton. The recordings were made about 60 years ago, and his reference was that 'we may already be on that slippery slope'. I've noticed a big change in the last decade, and I don't think it's because of better information available.

I'm convinced that we have caused global changes, but I don't know what the end result will be. I've very concerned that they may be catastrophic, not for my sake (I'm nearly out of here), but for my children, grandkids and great-grandkids as well as humanity. I envision huge changes in lifestyle caused by transportation issues, food production, geo-political matters, etc. Little real effort seems to be made to prevent, or even slow it down. Even more concerning, because it can be a huge change, the 'little' changes have become political. Even the courts are acting to prevent implimentation of needed actions. It does not look good.

As one of the posters noted, I think IRS, that to err on the safe side is still good, but to ignore may be 'not so good'. I'm thinking it could be as bad as the next mass extinction. I have no idea of how this stops, it it ever gets going. One of my few serious moments...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Data point

We really should cease labeling (and thereby dismissing) significant data as ‘anecdotes’. Data (mountains of it) are the raw material for the model. The model in turn predicts future direction, and the scientists have been consistently conservative with that - events have outpaced their warnings. The mechanisms and tipping points should be understandable to anyone with technical training (I hesitate to describe university as ‘higher education’ when it is essentially job training, but I digress).

Anyone disputing that may have trust and comprehension issues, very possibly assisted by the cyclone of excrement that is politics, media, and corporate interests, multiplied and accelerated by The Algorithm.

Some here will protest that we are smarter than that, are objective, and have complete independence of thought, blah blah blah, but I’m sorry, we all have a lot less agency than we are told and want to be told. Does anyone ever notice the root message advertisers relentlessly beat into our heads? (Hint: gambling companies are the worst offenders.)

Expecting flack incoming in 3, 2, 1 … because I know this flies in the face of centuries of American self-mythologizing and the engineer’s ‘I can fix this’ mindset.

Quote (greenhouses are not a good analogy for the atmosphere.)

It kinda is, if you consider the upper atmosphere as being the glazing for a greenhouse and the earth as being the space within.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (either be a lot of places with somewhat colder temperatures,)

It's not a zero sum... there will/are places that are experiencing colder weather, but the net result is +ve temperatures. One of the problems is the arctic is heating fastest of any place on earth and will release methane from the frozen permafrost. Methane is far worse than CO₂. I've seen clips of where they have released methane from bubbles frozen in ice and ignited them.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

@dik ... ok, but I disagree, but meh !

what in the real world models the opening of the glass panes to let moist air out and dry air in ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

I hope I'm wrong!

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

@dik (15:21 post)

We agree that the future is very uncertain. The precautionary approach is all well and good, until you impoverish yourself for potential fears.
How much life insurance to you have ? How much health care ? These are things that will almost certainly be needed during your life (or to help your loved ones immediately afterwards). You've made a decision to spend so much on these certain expenses and use the rest of living today (and maybe tomorrow).

I agree that humans are affecting the environment in many ways. Who's to say that CO2 is the critical interference ? Who's to say that if we "fix" this CO2 problem that something else won't bite us ?

I agree that we should be sensitive to the impact we're having on the environment.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (The precautionary approach is all well and good, until you impoverish yourself for potential fears.)

By impoverishing myself, you are referring to doing things properly 'to leave no trace'. Indiginous thought is 'that you don't own the earth, but you borrow it from your grandkids'. We've even 'cluttered' space. My potential concerns are a lot worse than your's are. I hope you are correct, but have a sinking feeling that you are gravely in error. I can envision things getting far worse. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out, and I hope you can tell me, 'I told you so!'.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (We really should cease labeling (and thereby dismissing) significant data as ‘anecdotes’.)

There's lots of 'good' data... the 'good' anecdotes simply reflect the results of it and indicate the data is likely correct.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

I know this much, Big Oil favours the precautionary approach.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Yes, it's in their financial interests, and no one else's. Being one of the main perpetrators, you might think they would have that approach. The coal producers are of the same opinion...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

Who's to say that if we "fix" this CO2 problem that something else won't bite us ?

There's two aspects
> Pareto analysis -- there are a number of other heat trapping mechanisms that will likely have to be dealt with
> Unintended consequences -- as with fossil fuels; great efficiency, but tons of CO2, and many of the "green energy" solutions require their own energy/environmental costs as well as creation of waste that's environmentally unfriendly.

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Quote (Unintended consequences -- as with fossil fuels; great efficiency, but tons of CO2, and many of the "green energy" solutions require their own energy/environmental costs as well as creation of waste that's environmentally unfriendly.)

IRS, we have to be careful as not to create other more damaging 'dragons'... I don't have an answer for it, I think I'm aware of some of the problems, but not all of them.

Snakeoil salesmen, and entrepreneurs will be coming out of the woodwork, too.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"I know this much, Big Oil favours the precautionary approach." ??

really ?? the precautionary approach to this (AFAIUI) is "stop burning FFs today" ... scarcely in "big oil"'s interest.

Though, of course, if they are smart then they'd see themselves in the energy business and so motivated to develop the next energy source.

Don't want to be the best buggy whip manufacturer as cars are entering the market.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

@IRS focussed on fuels and energy. what about land use ? new microbes (possibly released from the melting permafrost) ? sea use/abuse ? etc

there are literally a million ways "nature" can get rid of us.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

at the risk of getting red flagged, indigenous examples are all well and good, but our population far exceeds the number that can be supported by indigenous ways and means.

you could say that this is the problem, but who are you going to cull ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

agree... but it's the attitude. I got an eMail two days back, that illustrates the wisdom in 'the background' and part of the eMail was:

The Two Wolves

An old Cherokee grandfather is teaching his grandson about life.

“A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy.

“It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.”

He continued, “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

IRS focussed on fuels and energy. what about land use ? new microbes (possibly released from the melting permafrost) ? sea use/abuse ? etc

there are literally a million ways "nature" can get rid of us.

Wasn't "focused" per se, just picking low lying subject. But, sure, there are tons of ways; even a non global fire/dust creating asteroid could kill upwards of 80% of humanity just from big enough tsunamis. The microplastics generated from our waste that are now endemic in the environment might prove to be life-limiting to humans, or some nasty bug might develop that feeds exclusively on them and then infect us with something nasty.

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Quote (there are literally a million ways "nature" can get rid of us.)

and the good news is that we may have unleashed them by our actions. We have to take ownership of that!

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Don't want to be the best buggy whip manufacturer as cars are entering the market.)

I suspect there will be big changes in transportation in the future, both with automobiles, and aircraft.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Unintended consequences are no longer unintended after you learn the consequences but continue.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

sorry, but the point to the expression is that you don't want to perfect a dying technology, but rather transition to the new tech by expanding your business definition.

Shell isn't in the petrol business, it's in the energy business. Thus as the petrol based business looks to have run it's course, (not saying it has) then transition to the next energy business. Whilst these new energy businesses are in their infancy, and petrol hasn't died out, it is still time to look to the future.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

rb1957,

Read between the lines: ‘precautionary’ is a euphemism for ‘foot dragging’.

But in the Big Oil example it is a lot worse than foot dragging, it is lobbying, disinformation, and covering up science that might hurt profits or threaten their future. Exxon scientists knew about global warming decades ago and informed their overlords, who started looking for ways they could leverage it to their business advantage.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Shell is in the business of maximizing returns to shareholders, by whatever means are tolerated by the law and public. The key term to understand is ‘externalizing costs’.

Some publics have more power than others: if Shell operated in N America the way they do in Nigeria it would be shut down in a week.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Looking at Vantusky, nearly the entire US is between 30C and 40C... I haven't seen that in a while. Next year, it could be between 35C and 45C. What does it take to get people to do something?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Big Oil example it is a lot worse than foot dragging)

Same could be said about the coal industry...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"Next year, it could be between 35C and 45C." ... next year it could be between 25 and 35 ...

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

"Read between the lines: ‘precautionary’ is a euphemism for ‘foot dragging’." ... your lines are very way apart !

"precautionary" has been widely used here are "take immediate steps now, in case (as a precaution) the worst starts to happen"

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

rb... semantics, does not change the problem or issues...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (next year it could be between 25 and 35 ...)

maybe in December...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

maybe in July

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

‘precautionary‘ could be taken to mean ‘wait for the science is in’ = delaying tactic. I see your point but I’m saying that is how Big Oil would define it.

That view is no longer tenable. If the science isn’t in by now it will never be in.


"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Could be both... or maybe January; we'll have to wait to find out.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

brimstoner,

Your definition of the 'precautionary principle' is just that, yours. rb1957 has given the widely accepted definition. If you want to denigrate Big Oil, fine, but you need a better label.

Take a deep breath there hokie

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Just trying to help you.

Thanks for reaching out
Can we move on now?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (rb1957 has given the widely accepted definition.)

often given as the accepted definition, I think brims is suggesting that it is often occasionally used for something different.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Show me where I said ‘principle’.

But I acknowledge my brain fart in registering cautionary when it read precautionary.

And yes I know what precautionary principle means.

Can you ever forgive or do you insist on making this your reason for living today?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

The precautionary principle is brilliant politics. No need for a cost benefit analysis, or evaluating alternatives, or even feasibility, because "think of the children".

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Yep, it is just DO SOMETHING!! Do anything.

Greg,

You say "think of the children" like it’s a bad thing.

What should we be thinking of instead?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

I’m driving along the interstate and I sense a slight vibration. It’s not too bad so I carry on at the same speed, but the shaking gets worse. Since I am ignorant about vibration causes it shouldn’t concern me.

Should I follow the precautionary principle by reducing my speed, or blame it on gremlins and carry on like nothing bad could happen?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (brimstoner)

Should I follow the precautionary principle by reducing my speed, or blame it on gremlins and carry on like nothing bad could happen?

People aren't saying to gradually reduce speed. They're saying to slam on the brakes. Pretty good way to cause a highway pile up.

Quote (dik)

tom... there is a wide gap of what I suspect strongly, and know for certain......I'm convinced that we have caused global changes, but I don't know what the end result will be.

I agree completely. We have burned a lot of fossil fuels, and there is a corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2. Barring some other explanation the extra CO2 is due to human emissions. There is a corresponding net increase in temperature of about 1 degree.

All that being said, it is unscientific to attribute cold weather to global warming and to pretend that the theory predicts an increase in cold weather too. Climate alarmists predicting hot weather and then pointing to a snow storm and saying "See! What did we tell you!" is why there is so much skepticism towards climate alarm.

The net effect is global warming. The name you should be using is Climate Change. The results can be unpredictable, but the end result will be climate change.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Yep, it is just DO SOMETHING!! Do anything.)

That's almost as silly as doing nothing...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

If Lake Mead drops another 100' it will no longer be able to produce electricity and if it drops 150' the Colorado will cease to flow... It currently provides water of 40million people, as well as the agriculture, and hydro for 1.3million people. What sort of cost benefit do you do for that? I don't know if it will happen, but there is the potential.

See the attached...

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-con...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Don't you worry about that. Ol' Joe is on the case.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/20/biden-spews-co2-on-t...

If that's the case, you might really start worrying...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

The net effect is global warming. The name you should be using is Climate Change.

Yes I know the semantic games. It's been going going on since the 1980s. "Greenhouse effect" vs. "global warming" vs. "climate change". Not to mention all those people who feel that more exciting phrases like "Climate Crisis" and "Global heating" are the more appropriate terminology:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/1...

and things have changed in the last 4 decades, and not for the better...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

and things have changed in the last 4 decades, and not for the better...

Things are better in 2022 than what they said they'd be. Hence this new strategy of reframing statistically normal weather events as proof of climate disaster. Floods in 1900, 1910, 1940, 1950, 1980, 1990: NORMAL. The same size flood today: CLIMATE CHANGE.

I thought my analogy was pretty idiot proof, so it looks like I overestimated.

My mistake for insufficiently dumbing it down.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

I appreciate the new, more humble attitude.

I think you’ll appreciate the dumbing down approach even more

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

How do you expect people to learn when you dumb everything down?

the problem with your analogy is that it is too simple. What's the cost of slowing down ? What's the cost of stopping ??

The cost of stopping burning FFs is enormous ... so much so that we don't mention it, although it is the appropriate precautionary measure if burning FFs is (maybe) going to cause the destruction of our environment. And some say that even this isn't enough.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (How do you expect people to learn when you dumb everything down?)

Depending on the people, you may have to, and even slow down your typing so they can catch up.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Things are better in 2022 than what they said they'd be.)

In what manner?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Politically, things have degraded greatly in the past 18 months. Environmentally, we're having a mild to cool summer here in California. As someone who works on the waterfront I have noticed zero warming and zero sea level rise over the previous 18 years. I do admit the last 2-3 years have been windier than previous.

Quote (dik)

In what manner?

Climate alarmism has a long history of issuing exaggerated predictions. Reality generally fails to match their doom and gloom forecasts.

Quote (Tomfh)

Climate alarmism has a long history of issuing exaggerated predictions.

Examples please.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (Tomfh)

Reality generally fails to match their doom and gloom forecasts.

Whose reality? Yours? Rupert Murdoch’s? Real reality?

We are seeing ‘doom and gloom’ playing out in real time. It’s impossible to dress up IPCC projections and current events in any way resembling ’nice’ or ‘cheerful’. Are you saying those dedicated folks are merely suffering from bad attitudes or defective personalities, and that that is the real problem here?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

LOL, I've read and heard lots of doom and gloom that hasn't come true yet. I continually see weather events blamed on climate change, with further research finding that it was the second worst event right after the one that occurred 80-100 years ago. Spewing this alarmist BS needs to stop if you want to be taken more seriously.

Anyone recall a number of years back when the earth quit warming for a bit. There were lots of claims and explanations about how you can't use short term measurement trends as an indication of climate change slowing down. But, a few days of hot weather sure leads to a huge amount of climate change accelerating claims.

Shell is in the business of making money for the stock holders, not the energy business. They know damn well that green energy doesn't make as much money. It's sad that people here can't understand that. It's the bane of allowing publicly traded companies to have free range.

Now, if only the doom and gloom claims about running out of oil by now had actually come true.

TBE,

In all seriousness, has anyone ever observed that you are very easily distracted?

I don’t recommend you embark on a career in failure analysis; I expect something like ‘faulty politics’ would be your go-to root cause.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (TBE)

How do you expect people to learn when you dumb everything down?

Thinking up analogies for inexperienced engineers to understand loading scenarios and failure processes is a thing I regularly do.
Part of the teaching process involves helping them unlearn half understood technical concepts.

K.I.S.S. almost never fails, in every sphere of activity. Maybe you have heard of it?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Lionel,

So in conclusion, we are not seeing a planet on fire, just an excess of negativity. Attitude adjustment will fix any problem.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

brims... you have to type more slowly... so they can catch up.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

My keyboard skills can be described as ‘hunt and peck’.
I can’t go any slower or I’ll stop!

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

I'm down to about 20wpm... I used to do about 40 or 50... but, I'm getting old. My son, on a good day does over 120wpm... blazingly fast.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

But which would you rather have to listen to?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

I think dik is referring to the old joke ... an irishman words his mum a letter "I know you can't read well so I'm writing slowly"

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (brimstoner (Materials)21 Jul 22 15:13
Quote (Tomfh)
Climate alarmism has a long history of issuing exaggerated predictions.

Examples please.)

really ? you don't think Tom's statement is valid, without examples ? Any response will be met with "cherry-picking" 'cause no list will be complete.
Both sides of the argument are replete with examples of exaggeration.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (rb1957)

Both sides of the argument are replete with examples of exaggeration.

There’s no debate, there’s no symmetry and there’s no equivalence.

Only one side practices denialism, has no supporting science, is corporate funded, and sponsors lawmakers. None of this is helped by brain dead corporate controlled MSM and the chaos and discord generating Algorithm.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Well, you got what you wanted. The rhetoric created enough fear that we are willing to give a guy with dementia carte blanche with $2.4 billion of unfunded money in the midst of sky high inflation.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statement...

"Only one side practices denialism, has no supporting science, is corporate funded, and sponsors lawmakers."

yeah, and the other side is as pure as eh driven snow, seeking only pure unadulterated knowledge.

as bill cosby would've said (in his stand up comic days) ... "rightttt".

you can have your truth, and you are welcome to it.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

rb1957,

Appreciate your science and fact based response; it was informative. But are you able to refute any part of my statement while staying within the bounds of basic logical argument?

Can you name any federal or state elected officials who are sponsored by corporate climate fearmongers? Didn’t think so.

Meanwhile in Virginia, Sen. Manchin (DINO) is wielding an obscene amount of power over the entire nation.

(Bill Cosby stopped being funny some time ago, for reasons that are way off topic.)

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Sierra Club have $183,000 directly to federal level candidates.

https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-commi...

@brimstoner ...
you win, I defer to your superior skills.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

$183,000 is not even coffee money for the Koch bros.

And this money is not dark.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

rb1957,

It’s not about me. I want truth to be the winner.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (we are willing to give a guy with dementia carte blanche)

That's a totally different problem and a symptom of a failed...

Quote (@brimstoner ... you win, I defer to your superior skills.)

No one is winning... we might all be losers. Time will tell.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

is this argument like the 3rd law, paraphrased "you can't leave the game" ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Another anecdote... "Blistering heat waves have smashed temperature records around the globe this summer, scorching crops, knocking out power, fueling wildfires, buckling roads and runways, and likely killing thousands across Europe alone."

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/07/21/105629...
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Lake Mead from the LA Times...

"Recent satellite images from NASA show the dramatic water loss that has occurred over the last 22 years at drought-stricken Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir and a lifeline for California, neighboring states and Mexico.

The images show how a deep blue strand of water snaking through the Nevada desert in August 2000 has drastically receded and narrowed amid the parched landscape by July of this year. Lake Mead and much of the Colorado River Basin are in the midst of a 22-year drought.

Water levels at Lake Mead — formed by the Hoover Dam — are at their lowest levels since 1937, when the reservoir was still being filled. As of July 18, the lake was at 27% capacity, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

The lingering drought has brought with it a reduced snowpack, massive dust storms, persistent wildfires and vegetation that requires more water just to stay alive. The effects of the drought are exacerbated by climate change and accelerated carbon emissions, which in turn makes it more difficult for reservoirs to recharge, according to Michael Cohen of the Pacific Institute.

The way people live in the West is now being threatened, he said.

“Our way of life is already impacted,” Cohen said. “You can certainly argue that people’s lives are changing right now, because of climate change. And a lot of climate change just gets manifested in water, which means hotter, drier, less water available.”

Severe water restrictions are in place across the Western states as reservoirs and other sources of water dwindle. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton said during a Senate hearing in Washington last month that larger reductions in water usage are needed to maintain reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell.

“A warmer, drier West is what we are seeing today,” Touton told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. “And the challenges we are seeing today are unlike anything we have seen in our history.”

Cohen said agencies that regulate water use and irrigation are grappling now with the effects of climate change. He says those agencies need to reach out to state lawmakers and federal counterparts to push for more action on carbon emissions and climate change, because reservoirs will not be able to recharge.

“Because without that, we’re not going to catch up. What people associate with life in the West, it’s just gonna go away,” Cohen said.

Lake Mead serves approximately 25 million people in the West, including California, Arizona, Nevada, tribal lands and northern Mexico. Approximately 74% of nine Western states are experiencing some form of drought, with 35% seeing “extreme drought,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Over the last several months, the lake’s receding shoreline has revealed sunken boats and human remains, including a probable homicide victim.

Water levels at Lake Mead have precipitously dropped from 1,204 feet in June 2020 to 1,043 feet in June 2022, according to federal data. The last time the reservoir approached full capacity was in the summer of 1983 and 1999, nearing 1,220 feet.

Current projections from the Bureau of Reclamation shows that next summer could see a 20-foot reduction in water at Lake Mead.

A white band of dried rock surrounds the lake like a bathtub ring and tells a story of where the water levels once reached. The exposed lake bed reveals a sweeping pattern of cracked mud baking in the sun, mineralized areas of the shore that were once underwater, now littered with dead fish.

The latest satellite images confirm the alarms climate scientists have sounded about climate change and overuse of the Colorado River, which feeds into Lake Mead. The current situation may present one of the worst droughts in the West in the last 1,200 years, according to climate data."

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

And a lot of climate change just gets manifested in water, which means hotter, drier, less water available.”

Interesting phrasing there. Even water seems drier than it used to be.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

What ever happened to warm wet tropical air?

Quote (Brimstoner)

Examples please

How many examples do you want?

Quote (What ever happened to warm wet tropical air?)

In places, there is a lot more of it caused by the heating of the oceans... this causes more intense storms, etc. Unfortunately, the water doesn't always fall in the right spot. Calif can use it, and New York doesn't need it.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Interesting phrasing there.)

Just bad English... I got the drift of the message...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

It would be neat to see the run-off hydrograph for the Lake Mead watershed; does anyone have a print of this? Just to compare run-off slopes (a measure of the power it can generate).

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Tomfh)

How many examples do you want?

If you think you have too many examples then maybe we’ll have to negotiate. The only stipulation is that they be fact based.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Depletion is long term probably even more serious underground. Not just overdrafting but pollution of major aquifers.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (brimstoner)

If you think you have too many examples then maybe we’ll have to negotiate. The only stipulation is that they be fact based.

How many examples do you want? I am reluctant to provide you any examples when you are setting things up to move the goalposts. As rb1957 notes Any response will be met with "cheery-picking" 'cause no list will be complete.

This thread is best left to dik and brimstoner. But wait, brimstoner promised to quit it several days ago, so dik, talk to yourself.

I've done that for years...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Somebody seems to be taking this seriously...

"SHANGHAI, July 21 (Reuters) - China built nearly 31 gigawatts (GW) of new solar power capacity from January to June, up 137% from a year earlier, with full-year installations on course to hit a record high, an industry group said on Thursday.

Total solar power capacity now stands at 340 GW, up 25.8% compared to last year, Wang Bohua, the honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said in a presentation."

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

China built nearly 31 gigawatts (GW) of new solar power capacity from January to June, up 137% from a year earlier,

Their total coal capacity is 1100 GW, with another 250 GW in the pipeline.

Their overall energy mix:

Some cheery data I picked on Lake Mead

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

China is building and permitting many new coal power plants. No amount of solar and wind can cancel that out. China cannot make the sun shine at night (yet).

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Tom... their energy carbon footprint, on a per capita basis is less than half the US.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

brims... are you cheery picking, again?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

Tom... their energy carbon footprint, on a per capita basis is less than half the US.

They more than make up for that with their population size. In terms of climate change, it's the TOTAL emissions that count.

If you really want an amusingly presented list of necessarily cherry picked failed climate predictions then read this. You won't of course. Or claim they are cherry picked because somehow identifying failures is cherry picking. Or you'll hate on the website, even though it is cutting and pasting from real sources. I would add that if you ignore anything Ehrlich says then you'd save 50% in reading time.



https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-faile...

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Precautionary principle. New tires grip better than old tires, ok? So you are risking your life, the lives of your passengers, and the rest of society, if you don't fit new tires to every vehicle you own every year. That's the precautionary principle. Damn the expense.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

No fair! Not a single one of Professor Tim Flannery's predictions were mentioned!

The dams will never fill again! Tim's got a nice little house on the banks of the Hawkesbury, he obviously isn't too worried about rising sea/estuary levels.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

Fiddling with "per capita basis" statistics is the favourite technique for leaders of any country of smaller population than China's to do nothing.

We went through 10 years of that bulsh!t exercise up here with PM Harper, who doubled down on filthy Tar Sands bitumen production. 10 years of effectively going backward and breaking every international commitment.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Greg,

So I thought I would humour you by following the link, eventually to the CEI home page where I read 'Our Mission is to Reform America's Unaccountable Regulatory State'. Kind of says everything you need to know. But amusing it was, in a cute but strained way, because it manipulates these snippets to support the outright lie that "None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true." The wiki page for founder Fred L. Smith contains some pretty comical statements he made, but very typical of Republicans in that he substitutes clichés for reasoned argument.

You do know how "think tanks" work don't you? (I can never say or write "think tanks" outside of quotation marks.) There are hundreds, mostly corporate or privately funded, created to put an academic sheen on one ideology or another. Libertarian is a common flavor, and these endlessly bang the drum for more and more deregulation of the corrupt 'Nanny State'. The US has had 4+ decades of deregulation, including repeal of Glass–Steagall that indisputably led to the 2008 financial crisis that we all are still paying for in 2022. Yet these "think tanks" bleat endlessly about Big Government, the lie started by Reagan.

Well if you had a patient suffering from poisoning, would administering more poison be a sensible remedy?

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (GregLocock)

That's the precautionary principle. Damn the expense.

That is NOT the Precautionary Principle. The cost of doing nothing about Global Heating will far exceed the cost of slowing down the car. In the car accident analogy we can recover in hospital and replace the car, but for the climate there is no Planet B.

We are seeing it play out in front of our eyes. (Has dik not provided enough evidence to satisfy you yet?)

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

brimstoner - I'm not engaging you, you clearly only want to disparage and attack others here.

Quote (brimstoner)

But amusing it was, in a cute but strained way, because it manipulates these snippets to support the outright lie that "None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true."

Your challenge is to find us one single prediction that has come true.

I also think you need to quantify the environmental damage all of that marijuana you burn.

I feel like Ironic is a devout follower of Paul Ehrlich.

https://www.climateone.org/audio/population-bomb-5...

Funny even his own supporters admit he was wrong.

Quote (CimateOne)

The book was criticized at the time for painting an overly dark picture of the future. But while not all of the Ehrlich’s dire predictions have come to pass, the world’s population has doubled since then

And the world has still not collapsed. No credibility.

Quote (Brimstoner)

In the car accident analogy we can recover in hospital and replace the car,

You may be happy to crash the car to slow it down as soon as possible, but we have to think of the children in the car too.

Quote (Brimstoner )

The wiki page for founder Fred L. Smith contains some pretty comical statements he made, but very typical of Republicans in that he substitutes clichés for reasoned argument.

Reasoned argument like ignoring the examples and instead engaging in ad hominem attacks?

No doubt, tom... but both countries output is too high... Canada is up at the top, too, mainly because of our cold climate, small population and long travel distance. I should have added that India is often included, but their per capita carbon footprint is about 1/10 of the US.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

more fear mongering... this time from down under.

https://theconversation.com/natural-systems-in-aus...

and also from this neighbourhood...

https://gizmodo.com/greenlands-recent-ice-melt-cou...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

yeah, those evil Canadians ... no surprise that we fail that statistic ... a lot of heavy industry, long distances, extreme climate (already), small population.

makes nonsense of the per capita statistic ... why should each human expect to have the same CO2 output ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Because “climate justice” and “climate equity”. The usual nonsense.

...per capita is the only way to measure carbon footprint; it shows where the excesses are... India for example has a large carbon footprint, but when you look at it from a per capita basis, it's relatively small...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (why should each human expect to have the same CO2 output ?)

collectively, it's a measure of how well a country is doing at looking after their output... no rocket science to that.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

The problem with the whole per capita argument is: it's pretty misleading. We in the USA do have a pretty big footprint per person. But the USA is about 15% of the world's total emissions. Too much of the commentary going on makes it seem like the whole thing hinges on us. It doesn't. We need to be doing our part (no doubt about it)....but the USA could disappear and this problem would still be there. Everyone (all nations) have to commit to this.

I think the per capita approach clearly shows where the problems are... it prevents a country from using the excuse that a country with 10x the population is outputting twice the carbon and we are using that as an example for not doing anything. The US should be setting the example; as it stands, even their courts are presently preventing this.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"collectively, it's a measure of how well a country is doing at looking after their output... no rocket science to that."

and yet Canada fails and yet Canada is doing something to help (sure, not enough for some)

Should Iceland be charged with the emissions from airlines flying tourists to Iceland ? and shipping bringing goods to Iceland
or are these charged to the states that own the planes and ships ?

it's not rocket science. it is a simple statistic that flattens a very complex situation down to a simple number,
to (IMHO) send a message look how bad the developed nations (and particularly NA nations) are.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

Quote (Should Iceland be charged with the emissions from airlines flying tourists to Iceland ? and shipping bringing goods to Iceland
or are these charged to the states that own the planes and ships ?)

I suspect that's something that will drastically change in the future... There will likely come a time, in the not too distant future, when we will no longer to put up with these excesses.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

I think the per capita approach clearly shows where the problems are... it prevents a country from using the excuse that a country with 10x the population is outputting twice the carbon and we are using that as an example for not doing anything. The US should be setting the example; as it stands, their courts are presently preventing this.

Why can't the producers of 85% of the world's emissions set an example? And furthermore, this still gets played like it all depends on us. I've seen all sorts of news articles saying Joe Manchin has "doomed" the planet and so on. Sorry, but that's just not the case. Other nations have to do their part. No way we can fix this by ourselves.

What's this 85% stuff? It looks like...



I'm sorry I don't have more recent numbers. Twice the output with 5 4x the population. The 2018 numbers are 8.0 for China and 16.1 for the US.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote:

What's this 85% stuff?

Right here:

https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2020

And actually (as of 2019) we are at 13.4% of the world's total emissions.

Thanks... good reference, too.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

"you'll hate on the website"

my prediction came true!

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

More recent data than I had...



China is trying to catch up, but the US is still ahead; now, by less than a factor of two. The US pretty much remains the same... no reduction.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Other nations have to do their part. No way we can fix this by ourselves.)

I concur... Canada and the UK have dropped a tad (we're no longer ahead of Australia), and we have a way to go. China is increasing, but in the 3 years betwen 2016 and 2019 the US has remained the same. At the same time in China, in the last 30 years they have moved about 70% of their population from below the 'poverty line'. No matter how you cut it, it is not looking good, and almost no improvement on the horizon.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

collectively, it's a measure of how well a country is doing at looking after their output... no rocket science to that.

per capita emissions don't reflect a country's commitment to reducing emissions, they reflect its economic status. This is why the more honest climate activists are calling for the end of industrialized first world society.

That's definitely not CO₂ per capita...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Dik)

That's definitely not CO2 per capita

What do you mean?

The sizes are all wrong... the area of the sphere for the US would be twice that of China and the area for India would be about 1/10... this is even correct based on the new information provided by WARose...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Dik)

The sizes are all wrong... the area of the sphere for the US would be twice that of China

The size of the sphere is population, but that’s not really the point of the graph. The graph is showing you GDP (x axis) vs. per capita emission (y axis). The relationship is very linear. Rich countries = high per capita emissions. Poor countries = low per capita emissions. I.e. per capita emissions is primarily a reflection of how economically developed a country is, not a reflection of how well a country is managing its emissions.

The important thing is the carbon footprint, and the graph should clearly show that, not obfuscate things... What's happening in the Netherlands may be indicative of things to come worldwide... not sure, but possible.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/2...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

sigh, this it the thing with statistics. You can create whatever statistic you want to demonstrate whatever you want.

Australia and Canada may be the highest per capita being possibly the smallest in population, and the largest in landmass, developed nations.
But this doesn't mean that Australia and Canada are the evil villains of the piece (as a representative of both populations I'd be doubly damned).
The magnitude of their output (pollution?) needs to be taken into account. Though I think Australia's coal exports should be taken into account.

Coal is clearly the worst FF to burn, so measures should be taken to reduce/minimise/prohibit? it. The problem is it's a cheap fuel.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

We suffer from extreme climates, low population and long travel distances... it's easy to understand why... I keep making excuses for it... but we're not 'lily white'.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (LionelHutz)

brimstoner - I'm not engaging you, you clearly only want to disparage and attack others here.

That would be funny if it were no so disappointingly upside down. Help me out here by pointing to an example that is not demonstably true and therefore warranted. (Sadly truth has become an endangered species on eng-tips.)

Quote (Pud)

"eff off _____"

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

I just keep posting 'anecdotes' that indicate climate change may be in the process. Only time will tell what the end result will be. I suspect it will not be good and will be pleasantly surprised if nothing happens. For my kids, etc.I'm concerned things may be a lot worse... we'll have to see how it plays out.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Seems like a lot of engineers don't do RMECA

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

Probably not, whatever that means.

Quote (Dik)

The important thing is the carbon footprin

That’s exactly what the graph shows. Per capita carbon footprint. That’s the vertical axis on the graph. Isn’t that your preferred metric? Per capita emissions?

It shows per capita carbon emissions graphed against a countries wealth. The linear relationship shows the way in which carbon emissions are largely a function of a countries wealth. Hence why more strident climate activists are calling for de-industrialisation and a radical reduction in our standard of living.

As for the spheres, they are simply a secondary piece of information in the graph; population.

Does that graph capture the imported CO2 emissions? For example if yo buy a thing made in China who gets the CO2 assigned to them?

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

R adical
M alicious
E nergy
C onservation
A ctivists
?

R epublican
M others
E ncouraging
C razy
A ctions
??


I am acronym challenged to begin with, so help me out here. Seems even google has not heard of that one.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (Tomfh)

calling for de-industrialisation and a radical reduction in our standard of living

Those things being linked is not an immutable law of nature, but believing they are is the biggest stumbling block for many posters here. Try to imagine other ways of living than the only one you have known.

If de-industrialisation means ingesting and absorbing less chemical pollutants, then in one way at least my quality of life has improved. (I prefer that metric over ’standard of living’, which is strongly linked to monetary wealth only.)

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

We are down the ’per capita’ rabbit hole here. That quickly devolves into a political argument between nations, and a rationale for some to do less than they could and should.

The planet has absolutely no interest in that metric.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

What do you want to discuss, brim?

You’re trying to be condescending TBE, but it’s not coming off for you.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (a rationale for some to do less than they could and should.)

I think that hits the nail on the head... my excuse for doing little, less or nothing.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

dik,

We saw those shenanigans play out in Canada under the Harper regime starting around 2005. He was only interested in serving his Alberta base.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Quote (brimstoner)

That quickly devolves into a political argument between nations, and a rationale for some to do less than they could and should.

Sometimes less is more...

Well there’s another misapplied cliché!

Unless you mean `less carbon footprint means more chance of not burning’.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Acknowledge the carbon cost developing carbon-free energy.

Quote (Brinstoner)

Those things being linked is not an immutable law of nature

The data suggests otherwise. Seems your commitment to data and scientific rigour goes to water once we’re discussing the hard link between economic development and associated emissions.

Tomfh, you win the prize for Epic Point Miss of the Week!!

That was not a data-based statement! (Does everything need to be?) The fact you cannot understand what I wrote just underscores my point, that our commitment to our ’lifestyle’ bears the hallmarks of deep quasi-religious belief, and you seem like a true believer.

Spare a thought for my facial muscles please; having to explain such things makes me cringe.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

brims... it hasn't changed... like the US, they are still playing to the tune of big oil, and still thinking of doing stuff for the oil sands and pipelines projects.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (Sometimes less is more...)

for the potential seriousness of this problem, I don't think you are correct, but only time will tell. If you are correct, my apologies for doubting you.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (dik)

my apologies

Don't be so Canadian!!

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

If I ever grow up... I promise I will remain a Canadian; I don't know what else to be, and I'm too old to change. I really don't know what's happening, but I can see it getting really ugly, and no one seems to care.
There's nothing I can do about the final outcome, anyway... so in the words of Alfred E. Newman, "What, me worry?", but I ponder.

Time to move on...

thread1618-497017: Things are Starting to Warm Up Part III

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

Quote (brimstoner)

Spare a thought for my facial muscles please; having to explain such things makes me cringe.

Do you have to speak while you type? That must irritate your coworkers immensely, more so than a mechanical keyboard.

I think cringe does not mean what you think it means.

That could also indicate you have natural immunity; consider that a blessing.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

Sorry, I guess my eyes rolled back in my head before I got to the second half.

I was watching 60 Minutes yesterday and there was this story on the Bahamas that illustrated what I was talking about. (Granted I didn't make it all the way through, but this was about enough for me.) Some politician from the Bahamas talked about America and the European union paying some sort of insurance for them due to our contribution to global warming. Note not one word about the world's number one CO₂ emitter. Just the usual BAF (Blame America First) stuff.