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optimistic expectations ...

optimistic expectations ...

optimistic expectations ...

From Flight ... "Vertical confident on 2024 certification for VA-X4 as first flight shifts into next year"

good lord !? such a complicated drive system, and a "novel" power system ?? maybe they have "all" the certification issues agreed (but I doubt that),
maybe they're hoping (against hope) that there'll be no surprises in testing ? maybe they have already run the drive train on a rig and have flogged out a tonne of details ?

I expect this has fly-by-wire at least for the transition phase ? flight critical software ...

always one to rain of a parade ...

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

RE: optimistic expectations ...

the whole damn thing amuses me !

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

RE: optimistic expectations ...

I've been working on 3 different programs with normal old school flying test aircraft... All of them have been flying for 2-3 years... The smallest one MIGHT be done 2nd quarter next year.

RE: optimistic expectations ...

Quickly plugging the numbers into the Abbott aerospace spreadsheet for a "Risk Review of Urban Mobility Vehicle Concepts" it appears slightly better probability of success than I would expect due to market appeal

Slightly more seriously given they are UK based & the joys of Brexit, will the UK CAA actually even be able to issue the Design organization and Manufacturing organization approvals by 2024 let alone certify a non typical airframe.

RE: optimistic expectations ...

Latest newsletter from Abbott Aerospace on this very topic.

Yes, it is that time of year again! This newsletter is given over to a comprehensive update of the celebrated Aerial Urban Mobility Rankings. There are many more projects out there to examine so this will contain a lot of data.
These eVTOL rankings were first issued back in August of 2019 (Aerial Urban Mobility Projects - Global Rankings) and updated in December 2020 (Aerial Urban Mobility Rankings (2020 Update))


Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o We believe to be true what we prefer to be true. [Unknown]
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation,Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", Homebuiltairplanes.com forum]

RE: optimistic expectations ...

One issue that I have with the assessment is the market size question.

Since there really is no personal VTOL vehicle market, it can't really be compared to even something that's ostensibly similar. A similar, apocryphal, tale tells of Intel being told that making a microprocessor chip was going to be a money loser, since the then-market size for minicomputers was only about 16,000 units a year, worldwide. We can now laugh about that silly assessment, but it wasn't the assessment being not correct; it was that the application of the assessment to a distinctly different product wasn't necessarily warranted. The flip side is that had the microprocessor market not materialized, their marketeers could have pointed to their assessment as being righteous.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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RE: optimistic expectations ...

Evtol projects don't really excite me, many of them seem unconvincing.
But there's a critical mass of these projects, and enough funding swilling around that sooner or later one of them will break through technically. As for the market predictions, I don't believe they will become ubiquitous, but time will tell.

RE: optimistic expectations ...

I remember looking at a book my father had as a kid (so published early 50's), it had a picture of a nuclear powered aircraft that was a tug that pulled gliders full of passengers with the note that the nuclear aircraft either crash away from the airport or picked up another glider full of passengers. Thank god the current venture capitalists culture wasn't around then, multi attempts would have been made to make it work, combined with all those other bright nuclear related ideas of the time, the USA would glow in the dark in its entirety...

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