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Potential Disaster in the Making
10

Potential Disaster in the Making

Potential Disaster in the Making

(OP)
Cumbre Vieja, a volcano on La Palma in the Canaries, just erupted a couple of hours ago. National Geographic did an episode on it as part of a 'Disaster Earth' series a few years ago. Essentially, there's evidence of a massive landslide on the island a few hundred millennia ago, the likes of which would have formed a tsunami large enough to hit the east coast of the US. A recent earthquake seems to have restarted the process and formed a large fissure along the island.

Here's to hoping it doesn't move any more....

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Nothing can go wrong... go wrong... go wrong... go wrong... go wrong...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Not just a

Quote:

tsunami large enough to hit the east coast of the US

when it hits the US east coast it's expected to be 1km tall.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It's been on the local news all day. Quite a rapid progression. Lots of pyroclastic explosions reaching 200m AGL. Cloudy with very light rain here, so we have not been able to see the smoke column yet. It is 60mi (100 km) away, but we can see La Palma, or rather its typically close cloud cover from here most every day.
Spain's volcanic institute had delineated a magma volume of 11MM m3 (a vol = 1x1 km x 11m thick) moving upwards during the last week along with 25,000 seismic events, including two 3.x yesterday and a 4.2 at 10am GMT this morning. Yesterday GPS monitoring instruments registered surface vertical displacements reaching 10cm, which increased to 15cm this morning. Finally it broke through at 15:04. Now 23:00h and it has increased to 8 lava fountains.

Everyone, apx 3000 (and their goats) have been evacuated from the local area now with no injuries. Medical staff, psychologists and vets are standing by to treat anyone in need. Several boat loads of civil guard, national police, fire and military personnel are leaving Santa Cruz, port on Tenerife tonight. The president has already arrived (at 19:00) to personally supervise the efforts.

Currently no one is predicting any danger of kicking off the infamous megatsunami that supposedly could wipe out every port city connecting to the North Atlantic, including London and Rotterdam, but I'm looking around for some high ground just in case. We're at 180m MSL here, but there are marine clay deposits from an ancient tsunami on my property from 100K yrs ago, so that might not be high enough. We can reach 1500m msl within 5km.











The Radio TV Canarias has a live stream here https://rtvc.es
Stay tuned.

Geology of La Palma https://academic.oup.com/petrology/article/58/6/12...

I'm putting it right about here.


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

(OP)
1503-44: thanks for all the info. Nice to have a local voice when things happen.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I'm glad it's not any more local than it is right now. I was looking at some property over there in Fuente Caliente, but thought twice because that island is active. Tenerife is pretty quiet. Some micro seismic and occasional gas, but nothing more... knock wood.

I might try to fly over there and get a better look at it though, if things progress smoothly and calm down some... and it's ""safe". I've seen smokers, but never live lava flows and the fire works look pretty awesome. The reporters are saying the noise is like an A380 flying around your head.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Lava flows are 1050°C and moving at 700m/h 0.42mph

The estimated quantity of magma within has now doubled to 20MM m3

Surface deformation is now +19cm.

Saying this may go on for several weeks.


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (itsmoked)



when it hits the US east coast it's expected to be 1km tall.



And how was that height derived?

spsalso

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

This morning reports of 100 homes, some 2 story, have disappeared under lava flows 6m thick.

The location may be a bit farther south. The views in news reports have been from flat angles to the south and no aerial fotos, so it's hard to locate precisely.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Interesting. I have my doubts about pyroclastic flows. I watched probably 4 hours of live video thinking, "Absolutely zero pyroclastic flows of any kind". I don't even see how they could occur with a volcano of this style. Simple venting no explosions really. Not even any blasts to drive pyroclastic flows. Venting - massive freaking venting!

Amazing to see the lava rolling down the hills and wrapping around areas of street lights. Blocks with street lights bordering the destruction. Emergency vehicles were driving along the lava perimeters.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

There were some significant explosions during the first 6 hours as it opened up with 8 fountains, but now most of those have grouped into 2 main flows about 200m apart. It does appear to be high pressure flow at this time, however there are many layers of solid basalt interposed with pumice layers above and below all over these islands, so the composition can vary with time and location. There is one 300m high free standing cone a few km away from me that is composed entirely of pyroclastic pumice and "picone" ranging from solid pebble type material to solid surface-encased gas bubbles. Much is lightly stuck together and is easily worked into large building blocks that used to be used for light building construction, but it doesn't wear well. A lot of that stuff floats, yet I have also measured specific gravity's of the basaltic varieties between 2.8 and 3.2 Some of the lower density rock is multicolored and finely crystalized, whereas other, more rare ones, have larger green crystals that are worked into local gemstone jewelry. Occasional localized high mercury bearing ores are found around the high peaks, which were mined for local medicinal purposes in years past, but otherwise no significant commercial grade minerals are present.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

^ I sometimes see light pumice cut into planters or footscrubbers, it does seem pretty friable.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The volcanologists here are calling those explosions mixing straight up flows of lava with air rather substantially as pyroclastic, as opposed to lava that more or less leaks out the side of a slope with little air mixing.

I found some nice foot scrubber pumice up at around 2200m elev. Lots of small gas bubbles in a strong black matrix material. Wanted to take more, but its a national park. Just grabbed a couple, but they've lasted several years now. The lightest pumice is easily crumbled, loosely bound and white, light grey or yellowish. Nice for making light weight concrete.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (Nice for making light weight concrete.)


any sulphur content? may not be so good...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

1/2 way + predicted to reach the ocean at around 8pm GMT tonight.

Differential interference study indicates elevated activity began 10yrs ago.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82292-3...

Still not entirely clear, but I can make out an unusual white cloud top lower in a blurred column with a more grayish background than usual issuing from from the general vicinity..

The reporters are getting peppered with 3-4mm diameter pyroclastic pebbles. A carpet of it is building up all around where they are now located about 2km WNW.

I think I heard that it's emitted around 12,000 tons of sulfur dioxide gas so far. CO2 also present. Going to make some sulfuric acid when it hits the water. Pyro-type explosions are characteristic of its high gas content.

The creator is at 1500m elevation with lava fanning out from W to NW. It is expected to contact the ocean somewhere between Playa Nuevo and Tazacorte.

Reporters (w/o hardhats) are running for the truck.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Luckily the tsunami threat is overhyped.

Quote (wikipedia)

The findings of Ward and Day 2001 have gained considerable attention,[19] amplified by increased concerns after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake about the hazards posed by tsunamis,[102][103][104] and in turn increased awareness of megatsunami risks and phenomena.[34] The coverage of the risk of a collapse gained criticism for exaggeration,[105] in particular the coverage in North American and English media.[106] They have triggered debate about their validity and the landslide and wave scenarios employed. Various models with different physical specifications have been used to simulate the waves induced by such a landslide.[23] Later estimates have questioned the assumptions made by Ward and Day 2001, mainly with regards to the following:[107]

The authors employed a linear tsunami model that may not properly reflect non-linear processes such as wave breaking that could reduce the height of the resulting tsunami by a factor of about 10.[108][7] Wave dispersion might also act to reduce tsunami height since the wave induced by the Ward and Day 2001 landslide behaves as an intermediate-water depth wave.[109]
The estimated speed and acceleration of the landslide may be unrealistically high for the slopes it would move on, and this inadequate to establish effective coupling between the tsunami and the landslide.[110] Later research has found evidence that sufficient speeds have been reached during collapses at other volcanoes.[111]
The landslide modelled by Ward and Day 2001 may be implausibly thick given the known volumes of Canary Islands mega-landslides, and collapses may have occurred in multiple steps rather than a single failure[112][7] or may have a smaller volume.[113] The thickness of the landslide is a particular issue, as different estimates have been obtained at various volcanoes.[114] Another issue is whether giant landslides occur as a single step failure (as argued for Hawaiian giant landslides) or multistage failures (as appears to be more common in the Canary Islands)[115] and stacking in turbidite deposits generated by landslides are a reliable indicator that these landslides occurred in piecemeal fashion.[116]

In general, many of these studies have found lower wave heights at distance than the original Ward and Day 2001 paper.[117] There are also questions about the southern limit of the width of the unstable zone,[118] about whether creep might stabilize it[119] and about whether it actually exists at all.[120]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami...

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Good news.

Yeah. EVERYTHING is overhyped these days. It's all designed to distract you from your primary mission and plant someone else's idea in your head. So everybody goes around making decisions based on other's thoughts. Turn off the Facebooks, Instagram and Tweeters. Keep your thoughts your own. Keep your decisions your own.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Plume in the sunset.
Desde mi azotea. From my rooftop.
Volcano is at 2 O'Clock, plume blowing south then SE to Africa.


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (Luckily the tsunami threat is overhyped.)


and there is not a lot you can do if it happens...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote:

volcanologists here are calling those explosions mixing straight up flows of lava with air rather substantially as pyroclastic, as opposed to lava that more or less leaks out the side of a slope with little air mixing.

Guess I have to adjust my definition of 'pyroclastic flow'.

Any feel for how many homes have been toasted? Some of the pre-belligerence houses appeared to be sitting directly on prior flows but it's unclear if that's where these new flows are.

Good to see that any potential tsunami would only be 1/10th of a kilometer high.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

100 houses so far is all that they have reported in the news. I've been trying to find a flow map all day.
I can only find this probability plot. It seems to have covered most of the red tinted zones. There are really a lot of houses and farms in there.

I've attached the Google Earth File of the map overlay picture.
Right click on "Lava Flow Probability" in the Places Box to the left and select "Properties" and then you can make scale adjustments and change the transparancy.

Yeah. 100m tsunami height ... just get out the Hawaian long board and turn up the music.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

(OP)
For what it's worth, this didn't come from facebook or any other social media for me (I swore those off years ago). My young son loves all things earthquakes and volcanoes, and at the age of three he could explain plate tectonics better than most high school students. Just so happens we'd watched the nat geo episode together a few weeks ago and I recognized the name of the volcano when I saw it in the news yesterday.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Hey my town is one in the song Surfin' USA.

Thanks for the map 44.


Gotta admit this looks eminently inconvenient.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

So about this landslide… how high do I have to go? Worst case vs. most probable?

Getting to anywhere during normal rush hour around here is a nonstarter. Let alone a panic.

The rich will all take to the skies. Is this something I can ride out in my kayak? Or should I be looking into a DIY sub to stay below the debris field?

What about a 5’ diameter watertight hamster ball of sorts(with air supply)? That would probably get buried below the all the debris. Not how I want to go.

Other ideas?

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

They used to go over Niagra in beer barrels. Wear your Go-cam.

It's not over till its over. Another fountain reported opening, with a 3.9 earthquake, that is expected to affect the Tacande area lava flows. New evacuations started in that area. They are saying it has completely unpredictable and could go on for weeks or months.

Now 20 KTn of SO2 gas has been released.

With the fan out of the lava and flatter slopes, the advance has slowed to 240m/h, so still has not reached the ocean. The lava is Aʻā type.
In contrast to Pāhoehoe, Aʻā lava has a very ough surface
Has a high volumetric and high velocity flow rate,
Has large flow channels,
Has thick flows (2-10 meters or 6-30 feet), 6m here.
Has higher viscosity, and is slightly cooler than other types..
A non-Newtonian, Bingham plastic type flow. Viscosity is not constant. The faster motion creates faster motion as viscosity reduces with increased rate of deformation. Hot ketchup.

Finally found a good map of the lava flows!
21 Sept 04:30h

https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-co...

https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/sites/defa...



PDF of that image file link.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well apart for all the tragic it's quite spectacular and fascinating looking at it, mother nature at it's best and worse at the same time.
Maybe it's the same as with fireworks you can't stop watching because you never now what to expect and what will come next.



/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Man & womankind have been staring into the campfires for eons. It's from somewhere in our DNA.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes I think so too. smile

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Lava 101 https://www.universetoday.com/31387/lava-viscosity...

When lava has low viscosity, it can flow very easily over long distances. This creates the classic rivers of lava, with channels, puddles and fountains. You can also get bubbles of lava filled with volcanic gasses that burble and pop on the surface of the lava. And over time, volcanoes made from low lava viscosity are wide and have a shallow slope; these are known as shield volcanoes. Classic examples of shield volcanoes are Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa in Hawaii, as well as Olympus Mons on Mars.

When lava has a high viscosity, it’s very thick and doesn’t flow very well at all. Instead of rivers of lava, you can get crumbling piles of rock flowing down hill. It can also clog up the volcanic vent and form blocks that resist the flow of lava. Viscous lava will trap pockets of gas within the rock, and not let them pop as bubbles on the surface. But most importantly, highly viscous lava is associated with explosive eruptions and dangerous pyroclastic flows.

An example of a low viscosity (fast flowing) lava is basaltic lava. This flows quickly out of a volcano at a temperature of about 950 degrees Celsius. This flows out for great distances creating shield volcanoes or flood basalt fields. An example of high viscosity lava is felsic lava, like rhyolite or dacite. It erupts at lower temperatures, and can flow for tens of kilometers.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

At least the wind is stay from the NNE.

Going to be some nasty gasses when it hits the sea

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Lava rock round me black as you can get, goes for a tidy sum for sauna rocks.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Great post and link 44... repeated below.

Lava 101 https://www.universetoday.com/31387/lava-viscosity...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks dik.

Tenerife (Mt Tiede 4817m msl) is higher than Everest when measured from the seafloor, as are a couple of the Hawaiians (taller still), so this lava is the thick stuff. I think we're the 3rd or 4th largest mountain in the world. The sea floor near La Palma is lower, as is its sumit, so actually both are really huge mountains.









RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

1503 just watch where the wind is coming from.

Currently its NNE which is perfect for the other islands.

If its changes you are fecked from the East or NE. Poo loads of SO2

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Another explosion and new jet. Don't know exactly where it is yet.

Fortunately the wind very seldom comes from due west.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Here they say El Paso ?

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

that's cause your Swedish

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

ponder So what is the village of El Paso on La Palma called then. ponder



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Always interesting (albeit scary) to see these things happen in real time. In Auckland around volcano cones there are basalt flows where underneath the flow there is peat / tree debris etc. Also (hasn't happened to me specifically but I have heard of this happening) where the boundary of the basalt flow happens to run through a specific property you can have some pretty interesting undiscovered conditions if it turns out your three boreholes all hit the basalt flow but half the site doesn't have basalt completely screwing your planned foundation.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It's been increasing during the last 4 hours. Continuous huge explosions.
4 km2 (3km2 of bananas) and 200 houses destroyed.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (So what is the village of El Paso on La Palma called then)


El Paso, I would guess...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

4 km^2 or 4 sq.km.?

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (Alistair)

that's cause your Swedish
Was it a joke/comment about Old El Paso Taco dinner?
The Swedes first chose for Friday night dinner the last fifteen years. lol
I most have been really tired it just came to mind after I went to bed.

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The new vent is 1km to the north of the main vents.




Now 2x size covering about 185 structures in aa area of 4 sq km.

Map publishing delays. This is from yesterday.


I'm going to rescale and post a GE overlay.

Here it is. The elevation Scale is 1.25 reality. Remember, this is yesterday. I wish they were faster making the maps.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It's interesting to note the shear number of old cinder cones in the area. I count upwards of 30, but I'm sure there are more.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Tenerife has some 460+/- old craters. Almost as common as rain in geologic time scales.

Word today is that it may be entering an explosive phase. Lifespan estimates range from 20 to 80 days.

300 some structures destroyed.

GE File lava flows, preliminary damage assessments, roads,
infrastructure, contour lines, hydrology

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well.. That's not even half of the homes lost in my local area in last year's fire though any number sucks. If that lava ever makes a real run at the ocean that 400 will probably be doubled.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes. Not the worst total, that's for sure. And no deaths or injuries either. But i'm guessing it might be 1% of the houses on the island.

And about 7500 ppl at least temporarily evacuated from surrounding areas. So it's directly and severely affecting around 10% of the pop.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The people that got there houses destroyed, I mean they stil own the land but how was it done before do they build new houses on top of the lava bed or do they need to get new land. ponder
I remember your lava rock it wasn't easy to deal with.
And all the roads that are destroyed.
The area that was flooded with lava the last time how does it look today?

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

they have issued this now which is tells pilots about the ash.

Fingers crossed the wind stays blowing from the east.

LA PALMA - 2021-09-24 12:53 utc
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20210924/1253Z
VAAC: TOULOUSE
VOLCANO: LA PALMA 383010
PSN: N2834 W01749
AREA: CANARY ISLANDS
SUMMIT ELEV: 2426M
ADVISORY NR: 2021/23
INFO SOURCE: SAT IMAGERY, VONA, PILOT REPORTS
AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED
ERUPTION DETAILS:ERUPTION AT 20210919/1410Z WITH ASH EMISSION ONGOING
OBS VA DTG: 24/1300Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL100 N2842 W01754 - N2836 W01741 - N2821 W01656 - N2800 W01654 - N2821 W01806 - N2842 W01754 MOV SW 5KT FL100/170 N2842 W01754 - N2827 W01626 - N2745 W01621 - N2754 W01718 - N2815 W01754 - N2842 W01754 MOV SE 15KT
FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 24/1900Z SFC/FL100 N2842 W01754 - N2842 W01754 - N2833 W01739 - N2818 W01656 - N2757 W01700 - N2821 W01806 - N2842 W01754 FL100/170 N2842 W01754 - N2827 W01603 - N2742 W01611 - N2800 W01724 - N2812 W01754 - N2842 W01754
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 25/0100Z SFC/FL100 N2842 W01754 - N2842 W01754 - N2833 W01739 - N2818 W01656 - N2757 W01700 - N2821 W01806 - N2842 W01754 FL100/170 N2842 W01754 - N2827 W01603 - N2739 W01611 - N2800 W01724 - N2812 W01754 - N2842 W01754
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 25/0700Z SFC/FL100 N2842 W01754 - N2842 W01754 - N2833 W01739 - N2818 W01656 - N2757 W01703 - N2821 W01806 - N2842 W01754 FL100/170 N2842 W01754 - N2827 W01603 - N2739 W01611 - N2800 W01724 - N2812 W01754 - N2842 W01754
RMK: UPDATE DUE TO PILOT REPORTS NW AND NE OF LA GOMERA. SIGNIFICANT ASH EMISSSION IN THE VICINITY OF THE VOLCANO BELOW FL100. A SO2 CLOUD IS STILL DRIFTING EASTWARD.
NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20210924/1600Z=
VAG (png) VAG (csv)

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It's coming this way a bit today, but is expected to be on a NE track tomorrow, so that's a miss.
Seems to be the heavies are dropping on Gomera some and the lite ash is passing over us. No Ash on the car yet. Bitter Air is cancelling flights this evening. Holiday makers are advised to cancel all reservations if they are to stay on La Palma. We need the housing.

No. With 1 to 6m of lava on your property, it's totally useless, even if it went around the house. Basically you can't walk on the stuff at all. You have to pole jump from spot to spot. It has extremely rough, sharp and broken surfaces. In contrast, Hawaii's lava is smooth. This is "Ah Ah" lava, cause you say that if you try to walk on it. Seriously it is a Hawaiian technical term. "A-a".

Viscosity is greater than initially thought. It traveled 700m on day 2, 400m on day 3, 100 on 4 and now its almost stopped in its tracks at 4km from source. It was cone building last night from which some lava broke away and is running crawling at 30m/h seemingly to a SW direction.

New vent to the north. More being evacuated.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The cone is 250m high (820 ft).
Opened two streams from the base on the NW side.
27,000,000 m3 of lava emitted, averaging 60 m3/s (2100 cfs).

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes you can se on the direct feed that the lava flow is really fast.






“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

44; I can't believe that first video ended before the shockwave arrived. LAME!
This vid is the full-monty

Shock wave at about 4 sec and arrival about 16 seconds later.

How. How?! Does a shockwave like that get generated and the yet nothing physical appears to happen? That fountain doesn't even waver? No rocks come raining down. I've been scratching my head on this since it happened.


The lava speed is exactly what I'd guess would happen. As the flow covers a larger physical area the leading edges are the coolest and their viscosity is the greatest. This causes everything behind to back-up to inflate rather than flowing forward. Interesting situation.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Now that's a blast wave arrival. It might be from an explosion last night though. It looks much darker and there has been a lot of them going on since yesterday afternoon.

Only a very small part of the blast energy is travelling at ground level. Most of that is getting directed upwards.by the creator walls. I can't otherwise explain it. Airspace is closed to aviation. Don't want to shoot anybody down.

Surface sheet flow can do that. It's more complex if the lava forms tubes as it cools and hardens above while hot lava flows underneath. Rock pipeline, lava tubes, are an efficient means to move large quantities of it at high velocities. There are tunnels here that go for 10 km. There is one you can visit. 500m is open to the public. It gets to a diameter of 50ft at some points. Most is around 25ft. They may need steeper slopes to form though. That one is probably a 30° slope. There are many, visible exiting at the ocean cliffs. A lot of the reviews here have formed when their tops collapsed, but you can see the semicircular bottoms still remain. Natural pipelines. Who would have thought? Obviously a very interesting subject, no?

Some ash has shown up this evening. Not too much yet.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It's not the shoot things down.

The engines melt the silica in the ash and it forms glass on the turbine blades and kills the engine.

You can't see the ash to boot.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

There is a 160km long lava tube in Australia!

Don't test my shoot-down theory.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I think both phenomena is best to stay away from.
The glas blasting and clogging of aircraft motors which could affect big areas and many altitudes.
This blast waves must be quit lokal around the volcano, I guess they have the same effect as columbus nimbus clouds the swift rice of air pressured upwards make the air that is already there get pushed down on the sides to take its place, so if you fly over it you can get "sucked" down when you passed the high pressure point.
Not sure though how far up this can go though.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

30-40 cm rocks are landing 1-2 km away with 10-20 cm impacting at 4-5 km depending on the winds.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I hope it is a well known fact to keep away from volcanos when they are active, there is a lot of airspace, so no need to use it if there isn't any high emergencies.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Finally a location for the new fountain.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Ash is up to 17000 ft now

Sort of but like the big Icelandic volcano it can shut down huge amounts of airspace.

Thankfully it's no where near high use airspace or has a Jetstream near it to spread it.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The map is a bit strange it is like it is two different maps with different proportions one for the landscape and one for the roads.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The cone just broke. Low viscosity, high temp lava is flooding previous flows. Flows thicknesses reaching 12m heights.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

This morning at 06:50

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making



If your interested this is the latest ashtam.

Looks like nothing much has changed aprt from the height is dropping

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The runway is closed and covered in ash. Yesterday they had 10 guys out there with ... leaf blowers. People are lining up at the ferry docks.
Yesterday 07:00 - same map actually, with the ash field added.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Lava temperature went from 1050 to 1250°C.
It may also be flowing more to the southernmost lobe.
Reaching 15m height.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

1503... I don't know about the others, but I really like your daily updates, and pass them on to other engineers in this area.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks dik. Nice to know somebody cares.

I'm trying to find out the details of engineering interest, but there isn't much actual data or quantification that's out there. Copernicus is one of the few. the rest are comments that a reporter or interviewee might have noticed and mentioned on air.

Here's another map hot of the Copernicus press. As of this morning 0708 UTC.

Just heard that the Todoque church tower went down. The frontal lobe is on a slow move again at 30 to 40m/h. Movement on the southern flank has begun again and took out some more houses. 514 Damaged structures and 18km roads.

Ash on many houses is beginning to accumulate to the point where it could be threatening some structures. Residents have been advised to keep a watch on it and phone for assistance in removing it as necessary. Residents on the north side have been advised that they can return to their homes, as the lava flows are predominently to the southern lobe. The probability map showed that they were rather low risk, but I guess better safe than sorry is the rule of the day.

The ash has buried all traffic road stripes and is supposedly pretty slick to drive on, so a number of "driving experts" have been on the news today.

Around 20MM cu meters of lava has been emitted. That's 50% of the total of the San Juan Eruption of '71. It is estimated to be 10% of what's to come on this one. Lava is being supplied to this one from deeper levels, 20km or so. They initially only saw 11MM m3 moving up, but it used that up in a few days.

Airport is in service, but all operators have cancelled every flight. Winds continue to be to the North and a weak SO2 cloud is making its way over western EU.

We are getting no more ash here, but I thought I could smell a slight burnt oder this morning.



Google Earth kmz file is attached.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I can't seem to upload files today.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

if you have a lazer pointer at home the icelandic blokes at work say it the best thing for seeing if there is ash in the air.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

... and that from a pilot?ponder

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

:D we do use them a fair bit teaching ground school. They also use them in the sim to point things out on the instruments while strapped in.

We are just quite anti pointing them at people and aircraft.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It seems that the main volcano has come to a bit of a rest right now just some smoke showing, maybe just the calm before the storm. ponder

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

0730 UTC No smoke, no lava. There were 100 seismic event registered towards the South point of the island.

On hold ... for now.

Shields are up.

..............
1200 UTC Back online. A siesta. "Entirely normal".

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The smoke is back..

Last night



This morning



Now

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

This one's in false color from the Pleiades 1-A bird. Yesterday 1158 UTC


Quote (https://www.eng-tips.com/postedit.cfm?id=8731407&a...)

Pleiades is an optical satellite constellation that consists of 2 twin satellites – Pleiades-1A and Pleiades-1B, launched on 6 December 2011 and 2 December 2012 respectively. Pleiades proved very high resolution product (50 cm) with a 20 km swath, high-precision location — less than 4.5 m (CE90) without using ground control points, and the ability to automatically obtain orthorectified products for 30 minutes.

To continue the Pleiades mission, Airbus Defense and Space 2020-2021. plans to launch 4 ultra-high resolution optical satellites, which will have Significantly improved technical characteristics, compared with the currently operating satellites.

The leading edge is following the revine at the point below Todoque and is almost 1km west of the point shown, which is where the church got knocked down yesterday.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Something's wrong with the file posting.
I have to copy the E.com link myself and paste it here,

Google Earth Lava Flow
The latest lava flow is apparently being presented in four parts to differentiate areas that are being filled on top of old flows. No explanation was provided, so just my guess that's what they're trying to give us. Now that its 15m high in some places, some idea of height and overflows would be good.
https://files.engineering.com/getfile.aspx?folder=...

now the E.com link has appeared there. Well. Both are to the same file.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Some explosions have opened new vents just to the south, towards the direction of the seismic events. There are suspicions that they are directly related.

Seismic activity this morning was 9 to 13km below. Below what, I'm not sure. No reference is given. As the area's peaks are 2000m msl, that's +/- 20%.

There was one 3.8 event felt on Fuentecaliente.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

<ON> <OFF> ... <ON>

43.6 MM cu meters of lava.

If I remember correctly, almost 1/2 the volume removed from the entire Panama Canal.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It seem to have started up again on the other side of the old cone.



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Mushroom clouds now.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Typical Canary day, except for the active eruption above the farms.

Live LaPalma TV https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=INvrtMg5tSQ

Lava type has changed. Now with Hawaiian flavor. Less viscous and faster running. Still no map available yet today.

Lava is continuing to make its way down into the coastal area where it has encountered some banana plantations with polypropylene coverings, combustible and fertilisers stored on premises. That created a toxic cloud, which has now dissipated, but it forced firefighters to abandon their activities in that area for some hours.

Airport operations have once again shut down 'till further notice.

The Lava supply has not gone short and in fact seemingly in ready supply.

Authorities have prohibited nonresidents from the affected area, as well as unauthorized drone flying. The Youtubers have to clear out. Hotels and guest houses are at full capacity with displaced residents.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

smile Thanks for the update..

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

URWelcome.

New map. Yesterday morning 0650 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Ditto... and thanks. It seems to be getting a little more 'violent'... not sure what the term would be.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes. It's certainly doing more damage now. After overflooding existing lava fields for the past couple of days, it's making forward progress again. If this can be called progress.



The Cabildo de La Palma (infrastructure management authority) made a drone flight this morning at 10am.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fI0rSbbpAGE

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

My Spanish isn't so good winky smile the basics are there, ordering beer, chicken and potato's and asking for the bill.
But finding information where the main source is in Spanish, hmmm no can do. smile
It is just the high lights that maybe comes up in English or Swedish.
So thanks again..

PS. I still think there is something wrong with the maps. winky smile

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

it might be coming your way

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

...about 800m to the 'big lake'... then see what happens; I don't know how much or how many gasses there are in volcanic flow, but I suspect there can be a couple. I also don't have a clue about the interaction of lava with sea water... there could also be some 'surprises'.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

thanks, Alistair...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

big explosion depending on temp of it. If its hot enough you start making O2 and H2 in rather large quantities.

And there are loads of gases not many of them are pleasant. And get even less pleasant when water is involved.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Found a bit more on the worst case tsunami scenario. It seems that the US east coast doesn't have to worry about any tsunami over .. 10–25 m ft =(3–8 m) in height. 500 km3 is one hell-of-a-lot of material.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251431945...

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

the Icelandic guys were saying its the acid vapour which is the big problem with it going into water.

It will strip paint in seconds.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks... hydrogen chloride, I would suspect and others... and react with lung mucous, etc.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

There is loads of sulphur as well

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Sulphuric acid is not as volatile... mind you, you cold get sulphur dioxide, etc... which is pretty pungent. It could get really unpleasant.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making



To be honest I though water would have need to get over 2000 Deg C and lava was about 1000 C

But when it comes to volcanoes and hunting whales I will take the Icelandic's word for it.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

They expect the nearby surface water bulk to heat +20C. It's around 24 today.

Boiling currents may cause undercutting and cliff erosion.

There were more 3.x earthquakes occurring at the 12km depth to the south at 1800 UTC.
More lava percolating up???


Since the islands span over a distance of 500km, most other things are pretty normal.
I'll bet a lot of you don't know that we play baseball here. Puerto la Cruz won the playoff.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The lava is really picking up speed.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (But when it comes to volcanoes and hunting whales I will take the Icelandic's word for it.)


No doubt about it... I can see acid being produced and causing major corrosion issues... just think HCL rather than H2SO4...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote:

Authorities have prohibited unauthorized drone flying.

Typical govmt short-sited heavy-handed imbecilic BS. There are no planes allowed so why would they care about drones. Drone forte is getting into hazardous locations for high def results. Drones could map the flows easily, quickly, and hourly. They could also provide up-close details of how the lava is physically moving and changing.

I'd invite drones to have-at-it as long as all data was provided to a clearing house for officials and volcanologists.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

latest ashtam

Looks like its staying in a good direction.





"chlorine, sulphur, carbon and hydrogen sulphide, hydrochloric acids, carbonic acids, CO2 will be formed"

That's from one of the Icelandic's who's brother is a volcanologist in Iceland.

Anyway to be honest I agree with you..... more interested than anything else. As the Icelandic said its worse than a Russian mother in laws Fart. Which got him elevated to sage levels of knowledge transfer in the crew room in my book as pretty much everyone grasped the toxicity level.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Russian mother in-laws .. smile
They write that the lava has reached the sea now..


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (latest ashtam)


Is that what they're called?

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Right. Its reached the ocean now, via a south route around 3 Peak Mountain. Have to see what the dawn brings. Sun just coming up.
There is a large cloud bank holding just offshore here, so I see nothing.
Winds have been rather strong from the east since yesterday afternoon, so any toxic clouds are all going to Brazil.

Yesterday 0708 UTC


Only private, unauthorized drones have been prohibited. The gov INVOLCAN, IGME, Cabildo LaPalma agencies are flying. There have been too many UTube and tictokers out with their toys. Bushcraft Bear should stick to the Alps. He's taking up hotel room. First post he was going to find out the exact location of the volcano. Result: "Can't see in all that smoke. Its somewhere over there."

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

smile
Yes and talking about the smoke it's a bit fascinating that the color of the smoke can be so different even when the craters are so close to each other.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The 300m tall cone has entirely collapsed to the WSW, sliding down the slope and leaving an enormous revine in its wake.

More earthquakes to the south. 3.8

Apparently the feeding system is complex and involves several magma chambers at the 9 to 12km depth. Different materials have been progressively welling up into the magma supply chain over geologic history, as the island moved slowly to the north over the hot spot. The Cumbre Vieja, or old cone ridge to the south is actually the youngest region on the island.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

There is notam

Which is notice to airmen which is temporary info of things that will effect a flight.

Ashtam

Which is volcanic ash to airmen.

Snowtam

Runway conditions due snow contamination to airmen.

There is I think 12 offices world wide that issue ashtam. Met office UK covers Iceland North Atlantic east, and Toulouse covers South Europe Africa Etna and Canaries.

UK has a Bae 146 set up for atmospheric sampling which does loads of work but can also do volcanic ash surveys. Don't have a clue if Toulouse has something similar.

Don't think the 146 is down there the Cranfield pilots are all still at home that fly it.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Winds are wrather strong from the east, but the steam is backdrafting over the (unoccupied) houses near the coast before reaching the upper westerly flow.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

That's your funny winds round the big rock doing there thing

There will be a low pressure zone behind it causing circulation back.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Island in a stall.

No hang gliders for the last 10 days!

I'm wondering why we have no geothermal power stations here. There obviously must be geothermal potential.

Maybe too much, if anything.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I was vaguely aware of some.. rather unproductive studies having been .. thought about( ?). Too much thinking and not enough action. Lots of local PhDs involved. Kind of typical for these parts, including the mainland. Base load here is LNG gas generated and is going to get expensive, probably sooner than later. Maybe all this publicity will get the ball rolling and the pot boiling, so to speak. Then will come the anti-drilling for anything advocates. They may have a point, but I'd at least like to know if there are any viable options.

Solar and wind are well entrenched, but its base load that always turns out to be the most difficult nut to crack.

If Kenya can do it, we just need ... Japanese capital.

Maybe I've chanced into something more productive than "Engineering Disasters".

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Mate they started talking about tidal power in the pentland firth between Scotland mainland and Orkney island before I went to uni over 30 years ago when they started shutting dunray nuke down. Still hasn't happened although they have had a few prototypes out.

Maybe I need to get our Icelandic lads to bid for TFS they are bound to be related to someone that does it at home.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Those latitudes have some nice tides. There were some old tide powered water mills around these parts and the Azores, but that was a long time ago. Normal tides here are not more than 2m and there is not much storage potential, as there are no large bays that the tides move into and retreat from, so no large volumes of water to work with either. Wave power, a maybe at best. A little power 'till the big ones come, then they're gonna disappear in a winter storm. Occasionally they get up to 5-8m that I've seen.

The boil off is nontoxic .. so far.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks, Alistair...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (I'm wondering why we have no geothermal power stations here. There obviously must be geothermal potential.)


to drive air conditioners? Ground source heat pumps don't likely work very well either...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The house is gone...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58733854

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

dik this isn't ground heat pump. This is water getting pumped down at 5 bar then getting super heated and then expanded through a turbine. Its basically a nuke with no nuke kettle.

The feed temp pre expansion is 250 to 300 deg C if its anything like Iceland.

oh and the other one which is actually more important is Sigmet which standards for significant weather.

Its imbedded thunderstorms, mountain wave and clear air turbulence and the like.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks... that's what I understood... I was trying to be humourous... but failed.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Oh and the pentland firth you can see a slope in the water at full tide run. Its basically the Atlantic ocean V the north sea through 5 miles of shallow water. The tide run is colossal you struggle sailing against it its well over 7 knots.

Having dived it the bottom is scoured rock completely featureless and no life.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

:D its ok you know how even ex engineers get when talking tech. I think the geo term is high empathy heat source. Apparently when the valves screw up with it then there is a fecking colossal bang because there is no way of turning down the heat input unlike other thermal fuelled plants. Your only protection is a pressure relief valve and if the pumps fail your in deep poo. BUt at least when you vent its clean until you run out of none saline water. After that the ph drops rapidly to 2 or less and there is colossal volumes getting vented.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Re: The lone house. Looks like vindictive lava. One little tendril targeted it!

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks for your comment, however this topic has been the subject of lengthy discussions above. A tsunami might be possible in some kind of extreme doomsday scenario, however realistic east coast wave heights are thought to be limited to 25ft.

A series of earthquakes again struck the Fuentecaliente area to the south. Residents are preparing for evacuation. Some think they could indicate a potential for another eruption towards the South.

1 million kilos of bananas and all the natural salt in process of evaporative collection at the salt works below Fuentecaliente are lost, salt is blackened due to ash contamination. All N-S roads are cut, power lines damaged and important irrigation supply lines are out of service.

Air service is back... as long as the winds cooperate.

La Palma is getting bigger. A half km2 surface area was added by the solidifying 90m high lavafalls cascading into the Atlantic.

Apparently the stream of lava is solidifying along its edges and forming natural dikes, which hopefully will constrain future flows to within these banks.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

can see them being able to fly for long

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

This is the time of year when the winds are lightest and the most variable. They should get around to more consistant northerly direction in a month or so.

The immigrants take advantage of the lack of Northern winds that make coming up from Senegal difficult. Not that it's easy in any case. We get a thousand a week during this season.

Dark Ash cloud. Overcast today with some very lite rain. The plume was drafting low clouds from the Eastern side of the island over the ridge and up into the plume.
[

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

DESTRUCTION/CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESS
29 09 2021 11:58 UTC


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks for the update...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

1000 per week?!. Are they sent to the mainland?

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

That's actually peak rate during the high season. So far 17,000 this year, (https://www.antena3.com/noticias/sociedad/por-que-...)
so yeah, +/- 500/wk average, but they don't attempt those voyages during winter, so yes, some weeks a K or more arrive. Often over a 100 per boat.

Some stay for awhile until most get shuffled off to the peninsula sooner or later.

I think over 2000 more didn't make it this year alone. Its the most dangerous route to the EU. Spanish Maritime Rescue often tows in boats that would have drifted past the islands entirely, from the open ocean a few hundred miles or more to the south. If they drift past us, they're finished. Nothing out there for a long long way.

This boat only had 60. They drift for weeks out there.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I suspect the lava, now that it's reached the ocean, will keep a hot melted channel flow going so a river will be maintained, unlike when it's just wandering in the flats. Let's hope so, so more homes are preserved.


After watching hours/days of the LiveFeed It seems like more tons of gas have been puked out than tons of lava. Even when little lava is being ejected you can see a continuous steady MASSIVE gas jet going.


There is no road going around the other side of the island? I'm kinda shocked if that's the case.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

All the blue is roads so you will be able to go round.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I do have my headset connected just laying on the side of the computer and the sound is on from live feed from the volcano.
And I can hear that something is happening the sound has changed but when I look at the live pictures they have zoomed out but it doesn't feel like the picture goes together with the sound. ponder



It looks to peaceful, the smoke is slowly going up but the sound is much more like a roar..
Maybe someone turned up the sound on the microphone. ponder

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks for the roads Red!

The picture NEVER goes with the sound on these videos because the microphones are about 16 seconds away from what you're seeing. You watch the spewing volcano and look for events that likely will cause unique sounds and start counting while listening to the ongoing sound track. Often you will see the correlation about 15~17 seconds later.

Watch this video start counting when you see the shockwave.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well I know about the "thunder effect" smile but it was a constant high rumbling and roaring for quite a long time but the smoke coming out was just like from a chimney a calm day. winky smile

It was really quiet when this was going on ?...



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It recharges its batteries every so often. Yesterday was the explosive phase.

There is a new vent discharging lava outside the natural dikes made by the previous flows. Where will it go???

80 million m3 of lava has been discharged. Twice that of the 1979 eruption in 15% of the time.

There are roads around the island, but its not easy. All are two lane and low speed limit, full of slow drivers and banana trucks. One lost tourist ahead and that 50km around will be two hours. It took us 50m to go 30km today and there is no volcano here. Just normal off-expressway travel on curvy roads. Not even a banana truck today. In general the roads here are curvey and slow with steep grades. There are a few expressways, but all on the other side of the island. We have 50kph limits for most. There are tunnels, curves and going inland there can be 20%+ grades on the less traveled roads 17% on heavily traveled roads. Tiede is 3718m 12,000 something ft. high and its hard to get farther than 15km away, so that's an average grade of 25%, which is why there are few roads going directly inland. Most go around and around. One road here has 22 hairpin turns rising a 500m cliff. We don't even notice any grade less than 10%. Its not often we can do better than a 60kph average speed, which is probably more like 45. I used to get an average of 50kph in the Colombian Andes, so we could be worse than that here. Straight line distance from me to the south airport is 45km, but about 90 by road. An hour and a half if I cross the mountain on a good day with no fog up there. If I go around the island, I can pick up an expressway at KP30 but its 122km, so that's still 1.5 hrs. La Palma doesn't have any expressways and probably a higher percentage of banana trucks. Going around isn't going to be convenient. A few snaps from Street View for that go-around route. Keep in mind that this is the ONLY alternate road and probably full of cars and trucks all trying to do the same.





This is one road outside my town below on the "Isla Baja". N 28°22', W 16°50'. No street view, so a Google Earth 3D view. It goes around the point on the NW corner of Tenerife. 250m 825' STRAIGHT drop to the ocean rocks below, 3 tunnels and a bunch of hairpin turns. There is a tomato farm round the point, so often a few trucks on it. Do not pass, or ... sleep with the fishes!



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well I looked at the live feed 2 hours ago before it got dark and it looked as it had started to burn in the trees in this area.



Looking at the live feed now I can also see a lot of birds flying around, can't really determine how close they are neither to the volcano
or the camera, but my thought was that they are catching flying insects that are trying to escape the burning trees.


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The vents are changing.

29 09 2021 11:36 UTC


30 09 2021 12:17 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

1 10 2021 12:09 UTC
Now with ash accumulations.
Some talk about degrading air quality and SO4 oder.


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Thanks for the road update!




Questions, questions, inquiring minds need to know.

A) Where was this cool smoke coming from or is it fog?

B) Is THAT another lava flow??!

C) Is this a day-old newer flow or is this the same old one been going for more than a week?

D) Is this another vent or something burning?

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

A.) I have been thinking about that one too.
I think it is ash, it is a very defined area so I guess that it is warm enough and there is enough pressure from the volcano there to push out small particles of ash or something looking like "fog" if it had been moist it would evaporate going over volcano top.
It should be hot enough there to make it disappear. ponder

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I think it ornagraphic lift cloud.

All that heat pulls air in to replace it which comes from off the sea and is near its dew point. Air cools at 3 Deg per 1000 ft raised so cloud forms as it condenses

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I was thinking that too, but I decided it does not fit, the area where they form would be much warmer then area bellow since it is closer to the crater and the lava gravel is probably much warmer there and warms up from the volcano.
If it had been a normal mountain then it would be natural with these lift cloud since it gets colder the higher you get, but it isn't the case here I think...

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I have also noticed that where this lumps of lava falls down there also becomes this white smoke drifting away.
It is not easy to catch it in a series of pictures but you can se it here in the left side beneath the crater.




“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

[Clouds] Assuming it's not steam.

We get a lot of clouds forming right at the top of the lower ridges. We have a rather clean, laminar air flow upstream of the islands. It hits the islands and starts building waves as the wind blows up the slope and over the ridge. Its not the typical vertical lift of warm air that builds mainland cumulus clouds. Here, its the rise up the slope, a drop of temperature as Alistair mentioned, plus the venturi effect. We usually get breezes off the ocean that are at or nearly at 100% humidity, totally saturated, so all it takes to condense the water vapor is just any tiny drop in either temperature, or pressure. Sometimes we see clouds form just as they go over the ridge, without any great change of temperature from one side to the other. No clouds upstream, clouds immediately downstream. I figure there is a low pressure zone on the lee side of the ridge that condenses any water vapor by the pressure reduction and poof, a cloud is formed. I've seen that landing in Dubai and Jeddah, and Houston. Alistair probably has seen it too, although not from the pilot's seat. When you lower the flaps in extremely humid weather, you can see water vapor condensing off the trailing edge. Surely the temperature is roughly the same in front and behind the flaps, so its the pressure change. Those clouds on the ridge there in that picture can also be the initial primary formation of a wave of a series of clouds that often form at regular intervals downstream of a high ridge, especially without other topographic features to introduce turbulence. The clouds will keep their original wave length and form at the same distance interval between them downstream of a ridge and will generall get higher as distance from the ridge increases. Below ridge level, there is often a rotator effect that I mentioned somewhere above was backdrafting the steam from the cascade into the ocean back over the town. And I saw one ISS space shot somewhere of the huge vortex that was being generated by this volcano. So, it is possible that in this case the volcano is the motive force for an uplift, although the prevailing winds will easily drive the air over the top of the ridge by itself. I'm on the north side of Tenerife, so I see the prevailing winds climb up the cliff every day. There's most always clouds forming up at the ridge elevation, only 700-800m high. They rise a bit as the daily temperature goes up, but then come back down during the evening and night. I learned a lot about clouds since I got here! Some nights we get so much condensation, you'd think it really rained. Most of the plants survive here by condensed water from their leaves, or in the case of the Canary Pines, needles. Most of our drinking water is also condensed and collected in volcanic caverns up on the ridge.

All that said, in this video it looks like they are gases escaping from the uphill creater remains of the first cone that melted and went sliding down the mountain. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k6LyK223Uxo

This thing has vents opening, closing and moving all the time. I was curious about this as well and this morning I actually did a plot of all the vents since day 2. It is in the Google Earth file I am attaching. The latest lava flow is from a vent that opened up 400m from the original group, to the NNW.

That new lava stream is flowing more or less parallel to the original stream. I was confused by that myself, as there has not been much flow of technical information in the news channels lately. Everyone wants to know what kind of economic assistance will be made available. Anyway, I found some drone flight videos made yesterday and I was able to determine their flight path as they took footage of the new flows. I have plotted the path of the new flows in the same google earth file in yellow. There are 4 placemarks that should give you the same view of the drone photos at the times indicated. The Youtube URLs for two videos are referenced to the placemarks, double click on the placemarks and you will see the URL. Click on that and it should open to the drone video. Scroll to the time indicated on the placemark.

I think D is something caught fire. Anyway, you can try to compare that location to the vent locations. Its kind of a flat angle, so it won't be easy.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It look like it's going to break throw here in the white circle.



Yep it's a hole..



And it's getting bigger.



AND BIGGER..



AND EVEN BIGGER..



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I wonder if the crater wall on this side will be there tomorrow?

And this ball thing was a bit funny..




“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

looking at the better picture I think its steam/some other gas coming out the ground as well now not a normal air lifting/pressure change effect. Although it could be its higher pressure under ground and then expanding as it escapes. So maybe super heated water coming up then turning to wet steam as it expands.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Hey I got it to upload!
I think 44 and Alistair are correct in that it's jacked air-pressure clouds.





Red that lip of the cone melted and failed about three days ago and completely drained the lava down the hill. By the next day it was "repaired"!

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Hmm it was on the LIVE feed last night, so if the https://rtvc.es/en-directo/ Live feed isn't the a Live feed what is it then. ponder

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Could be decompressing CO2, etc.

Entering an explosive phase again.

The main irrigation system was cut by the lava flow. Seems that they are thinking about bringing in a floating desalination and water supply ship to save the banana crop and supply water to the south fields and houses until the water distribution system can be repaired.

Air quality is improving. .

Seismic events over the last 24h continue with several 3.x tremors in the region above the magma supply.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

02 10 2021 12:02 UTC
The new vent and its stream are mapped now.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Detail of the 7 vents active yesterday and the flow from the newest vent to the north.
It looks like the view of the clouds above is along a line of sight of all the vents, so I'd say it looks like the vents must be the source of that cloud.


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Active vents on and all combined lava flow to 02 10 2021

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Local vulcanologist confirms that the clouds are formed from gas emitted from the vents, or their rock piles. These same gases, when prevented from exiting the vents freely by heavy magma build ups, are what cause the dramatic explosions typical of these types of volcanos. "Don't worry. Don't be alarmed. This is a textbook volcano and everything is normal."

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

smile that is good to know. lol

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Makes sense now as that smoke would actually be kind of too localized to just be adiabatic cloud.

That would be a lot of fun getting the water to run next to the lava.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I found this Live stream on youtube where you can go back 12 hours, and the pictures above is from last night according to this feed but they will soon be gone.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Pretty large blasts 11.5h ago.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Must have been after I went to bed then..
My last screen cut 3 Oct 21 00:45 then there wasn't coming any lava it was mostly smoke.
Here much lava has come from the new hole..

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The whole cone just lit up. This is a zoomed out view. Lavas going all over the place. Yes. Just now rtvc.es reporting that the cone broke. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=INvrtMg5tSQ


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

smile It's about one and a half hour ago, to much smoke so it wasn't easy to see.

It is easier after it gets dark..



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well .... it just got a lot worse. They're aaying a large explosion 40m ago and the cone broke 15m after. Whatever happened, its easy to see now, that's for sure.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes it is really spectacular.
And there is someone speaking with someone on the phone I wonder if he knows his being recorded. smile



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The earthquake specialist. Said the seismic activity in Fuentecaliente during the afternoon probably initiated the fireworks we see now. There's a bit of severe violence going on now. Really high bursts. Or now we can see the full height with the frontal part of the cone gone.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yep but the sound is on ... ?
Now it's coming back .. maybe the lins is full of soot
It was like some one turned the volcano off with a dimmer and now they have turned it on again.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

44 can you specify what time on that last link that the blasts occurred? I'd love to hear what they sound like but I can't find any occurrences at all.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Well this and the youtube seem to be the same the others I do not know.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INvrtMg5tSQ

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

-2:20:22 on RedSnake's link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INvrtMg5tSQ
That's a live feed, so I guess that is relative to my post time???

It should be around 19:10 UTC according to the time stamp on my RTVC report picture above. But I think that time stamp is UTC, because it happened at 20:10 local time, UTC+1, because of daylight savings time.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Timestamp test.

Yeah, that's what happened. The time stamp I see on this post is one hour behind local time, cause I just posted this and its stamped 21:41, but the local time is 22:41

So I think the melt down was at 19:10 UTC +/- 5min.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Some talk about a large lava lake forming in the crater. No doubt. Its pumping it out like crazy. This could be a big mess by tomorrow morning.

Don't know the zoom setting on that camera, but they look even bigger now. Holieee!

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Timestamp test.

I posted at 8:28pm (20:28) and ET states The UTC which is 3:28.

SooooOOoo If the current YouTube time is 0:00 on the feed then I need to go back on IT..
You estimate "19:10 UTC +/- 5min". Right now is 3:35UTC. That's 3:35 + 24:00-19:10UTC = 3:35 + 4:50 = 8:25

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

The lunatic commentary on those live Youtubes is almost as startling as the volcano

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Hmm the only one commenting in "my" youtube is the rooster going about his daily business around seven eight waking people up to a new morning.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Commentary on YouTube is about the most idiotic there is. Internet access is too cheap. It wasn't that bad when we had to pay by the minute. Cover it up with Notepad.

Waiting for the first daylight drone flights to get posted to see what the heck happened last night. There were some blinking lights from police vehicles below the big stream that cleared out very quickly. 300 more people evacuated last night from the north side.


3 x 3.x earthquakes at Mazo , opposite side, across the ridge slightly to the south and down to Fuentecaliente

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I wonder if this phenomena that it's always so much smoke during the day that you cant se anything is because the sunlight has more light frekvensens reflecting / lighting up the smoke, so when the sun is down the lava and the flames get more visible and the smoke is not. ponder

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I'd just attribute that to the background effect. Flames are more visible when contrast with the background is increased. Maybe why stars and fireflies come out at night, but I admit that both could be active in the day time and they're just very hard to see. I could be wrong, because I don't know what frekvensens is. smile

I am estimating the height of the eruption is reaching 200 to 250m. I have not seen any estimates of that.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I guess wave lengths would have been better. lol winky smile

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I seem to remember reading that the color you see is the one that simplified isn't absorbed, so if you look at an red apple in the daylight all other wave lengths gets absorbed but the red excites the electrons in the atoms of the shell so they jump between different layers in the atom and by doing so they emit the wave length of red so the apple looks red.

So in a dark room you cant se white smoke because there is now light, lava has so mush energi that it makes it's own light and can admit it's own wave lengths that can make things appear or not if they are the right "color".
ponder Just from my head, might be in deep water now.. fish sadeyes fish ...

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Right, the color reflected is what you see when an object is illuminated by an outside source. Lava color would be from the wavelength its radiation is emitting. Obviously bright yellows, oranges, reds and the infrared we can't see at all. I think it's just getting lost in all the reflected light we see in the daytime. No completion at night from all that reflection going on during the day. White smoke is a good reflector of light, black smoke absorbs most all, so during the day all we can see are reflections and some little bit of red. Even the yellow gets lost. Viewers on site have said they can see a number of other colors at times, green and purplish tones.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

It feels like it is on the clock, now it is really starting acting up again.
And it has been digging it self down the side.




“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Some very dirty solar panels.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

03 10 2021 18:56 UTC
Yesterday's flows over new territory were mostly into the SE quarter of El Paraiso. That area is only 1km away from the last vent to open up on the north side of the group.
Also looks like its setting up to take out some nice houses on the north side of the south cone in La Laguna. Hard to give them much of a chance.

The volume of lava emitted so far was reported yesterday at 80MM m3. Rughly 60 m3/s.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Is that ash the type that locks-up if left alone or is it more like sand?

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Now it is starting to get hot..

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Oh I think it's been hot all day. Now that near infrared is visible again.

I think the dust is somewhat "reactive" or maybe electrostatically charged. Or it's just the very fine particle size that makes it hard to clean. Sahara dust also has very fine sized particles.

Light rain today left some fine black streaks, so we are getting some of it.

17 3.x earthquakes today from Mazo to Fuentecaliente. 2 x 3.7

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Regarding the discussion above
Scattered light of of the particulates likely is a large part of the difficulty of seeing the lava fountain. The daytime scattered sunlight is brighter than the black body radiation of the lava fountain, which is also scattered. This screen shot shows some of the scattering. - The illuminated smoke on the right side of the image that is mote likely to result in colored smoke than further obscuring the fountain.
I do not discount the effect of gas to act like a light filter, but I think


There are published estimates of the temperature of the Lava at the cliff side as being 1000 C. Has anyone seen a real number for lava temperature at the vent?? I do not trust comparing the black body color chart, as the camera is probably saturating in the bright (hottest) spots.

Quote (https://blog.inspiredled.com/wp-content/uploads/20...)



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Black body temperature is reasonably OK if you could see the thing live and/or use an optical pyrometer. The published melting temperatures of basalt magmas are around 1000 C - 1300 C and from my own experience with kilns this looks about right for the colours in the images.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Talking a bit beyond my knowledge here but it would be entirely expected that the magma exiting to the surface is a fair bit above the melting temperature. If it was AT the melting temperature then the boundary layer would be increasing in viscosity and solidifying and you'd get reducing flow. To have maintained flow or increasing flow you are going to need to have the exiting magma at temperatures sufficiently above the melting point that it maintain fluidity for an extended length of time.

Explosively ejected particles would be expected to cool to the solidifying temperature fairly quickly hence the red outside with the yellow interior.

My 2cents. But feel free to tear apart my seat of my pants assessment.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

You're on the right page. Discontinuities can't exist in nature. With that said, the air in contact with the surface of the lava is at the same temperature as the lava. The inside of the lava flow must be much hotter than the outside in contact with air. Only at the vents, where the lava is moving with great velocity and in small chunks,is the surface temperature close to the core temp. Also, if there are any combustible materials such as iron, the surface may then appear hotter than the core as it's exposed to oxygen and burns.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (human909)

You are right enough. Assuming the magma is (partly) melting its way up, and spent some time at various intermediate depths it will be near whatever equilibrium temperature fits the mix of crystals and liquid chemistry the last magma chamber contains. (draws elaborate phase diagram in the air). The last magma chamber will be hotter and deeper than the vent so yep, the stuff inside the throat will be significantly hotter than the melting of that exact mix. Not sure how much of that is visible though. Viscosity might also be more to do with contained volatiles than just pure temperature. It is a very dynamic system as volatiles come out, and some minerals crystalize out preferentially. I suggest we run

Quote (1503-44 )

up there with an optical pyrometer and some very thick clothes.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

and safety goggles?

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I haven't seen any temperatures published since the first few days of the eruption, which was 1237°C. The lowest I'e heard mentioned 1050°C during thick lava flow events. Lately the lava flows have been fast and hot, so I assume it would be back in the 1150-1250 range again.

These will have to do ..











RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Speaking of clouds,
"Mysterious waves that have appeared over the volcano"

This video shows the interaction of the eruption plume with the Sahara Air Layer temperature inversion capping the top. It makes the plume flow horizontally at 5300m msl. The volcanoes pulsations at different intensities causes these waves.

/Este video @cielodecanarias muestra la interacción del penacho eruptivo del #VolcanLaPalma con la inversión de Tª del tope de la "Saharan Air Layer" que le obliga a un desplazamiento horizontal a 5300m snm. El volcán emite pulsos de diferente intensidad lo que provoca esas ondas!/

https://diariodeavisos.elespanol.com/2021/10/que-s...

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Rocks up to 400mm have been tossed 800m. I estimate a 250-300m torch height. 820ft. 70m/s vent exit velocity 233 fps. Exit pressure of 1000+ psi, 70 Bars Hard to say for sure due to gas and possible two phase flow within the vents.

413 ha covered with lava, 14ha in the last 24h.
The lava has formed two pipelines. Since the solidified crusts of the tubes act as insulation, only losing 1°C/km traveled, they should keep lava from collecting upstream by maintaining low viscosity and high velocities within the pipeline.

1047 buildings destroyed and 4000 ha covered with ash. 30ha of new area has been added at the beach.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Gas exit pressure of 1000+ psi under a slug of molten rock would surely look like an explosion (or sometimes cannon shot), a larger slug of gas would explain the periodic shock waves. As gas must fizz out of the lava as it rises, two phase flow with slugs seems almost certain.

Some of the earlier images seemed to show gas and burping (rock and cinder ejection, and larger fountains) present more at the higher vent while the lower vent was calmer but with much more liquid flow. The underground plumbing may have been doing some phase separation.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

only 1°C/km? Seems too good. I'd think more like 100°C/km.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I would think that with the reduced pressure (weight of rock over) that the gas pockets would expand prior to popping...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (These will have to do ...)


@44... what is your source? Excellent information.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Some theories I've been reading lately propose both slug and annular flow, depending on type of volcano, determined by all of the following interdependent parameters, gas and water content (3 to 6% typical range) flow rate, temperature, 750-1250°C pressure, viscosity, 10k to 100k x water,and chemical composition of the lava.
"Low viscosity magmas, such as some basalts, can form very long lava flows very rapidly. In contrast, rhyolite magmas are viscous enough to limit bubble movement. Rather than escaping by buoyantly rising through the magma, gas bubbles are trapped in rhyolite magmas, expand, and eventually create very explosive eruptions."

It's the slug slow that is predominately responsible for the explosive characteristic. La Palma is rated as explosive Cat. 2 of 8 categories, where each Integer value is 10x the magnitude of the previous. Yellowstone caldera is an 8, so tread carefully there.

Sources are from Duck Duck Go search engines image feature. Sort through a bit of junk and there is some useful info there. I think the climate change deniers, antivaxers and flat earthers haven't figured out volcano antiscience yet.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

02 10 2021 12:02 UTC


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Nice to see all this geology. I feel quite at home

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Welcome home.

Overnight seismic activity has been reported to be from a depth of 29km. Very deep, as previous activity has been at half or less that depth. It could be a sign that there is still more to come. They will continue to monitor for signs that additional magna may be making its way up to the surface.

I checked the temperature loss data for a lava tube.
1/2 meter is strong and isflamecurse sufficiently insulated to permit a quick measurement.


Oh, there's a wiki for lava tubes ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_tube
"Lava tubes can be up to 14–15 metres (46–49 ft) wide, though are often narrower, and run anywhere from 1–15 metres (3 ft 3 in–49 ft 3 in) below the surface. Lava tubes can also be extremely long; one tube from the Mauna Loa 1859 flow enters the ocean about 50 kilometers (31 mi) from its eruption point, and the Cueva del Viento (Cave of the winds). 10 km from me.) system on Teide, Tenerife island, is over 18 kilometers (11 mi) long, due to extensive braided maze areas at the upper zones of the system. "
https://cuevadelviento.net/en/galery/

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Can you visit the Cueva del Viento ?
Can't remember hearing or seeing anything about it when we where on Tenerife.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes, you can visit the lava tube. About 500m is open to the public. We took our geologist PhD friend there when he came to visit last year. The short easy hike into the Canary pine forest to reach the entrance is also nice.

Several more earthquakes last night at 13 and 29km depths, one 3.8
The end is not in sight.

I was also surprised myself that the lava only loses 1"/km. Staying in the high temperature-low viscosity region keeps it moving so fast that it has no time to dissipate its heat. We use the same technique to move heavy and wax laden crude oils. Sometimes with only the burial depth of the soil providing insulation, sometimes using additional insulation, depending on the oil's solidification or wax deposition temperatures. You need high pressure and heat to 80°C to move it until the soil gets warm, but after a week of liquid flowing inside a soft oil core adhering to the pipe wall you eventually get it all liquefied and can half the pressure as the flow rate doubles. Pumps were arranged to change from series to parallel configurations. The Orinoco heavy crude would reach maximum flow at the lowest operating pressure range after about 3wks. A 24" diameter pipe with no insulation. After thermal stabilisation, we would lose 0.2°C/km over 200km pipeline starting at 75°C and arriving at the refinery at 35°.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote (1503-44)

A 24" diameter pipe with no insulation. After thermal stabilisation, we would lose 0.2°C/km over 200km pipeline starting at 75°C and arriving at the refinery at 35°.
This is the more amazing temp differential to me...

Dan - Owner
http://www.Hi-TecDesigns.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

3 to 4 feet of dirt is pretty good insulation. It's been a long time ago, but those are the numbers I think I remember. Should I run the simulation again???

It's been running 25yrs with numbers very similar to those, if not exactly so.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Speaking about lava tubes, I just this thermal image of the lava field.
Would the tubes appear to be hotter or cooler in the image? I suspect hotter than their surroundings, but I'm not sure. The hotter lines might be surface channels.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Things have more or less calmed down. The eruption is "maturing", meaning less explosive and a more constant lava flows. Flows are remaining within established surface channels and two pipelines.

The vulcanologists say that there are two independent magma supply pipes, one "Hawaiian", with hot, lighter lava that supplies the white smoking vent, the other Strombolian, heavier more viscous lava with the more explosive characteristic that supplies the black smoking vent, which has reduced its explosivity ... at least for now anyway.

Winds have changed, becoming more southerly, and ash blowing to the NNE again has closed the airport.
SO2 levels are increasing.

If the SO2 drops, it might be time for a quick visit.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

4.3 earthquake at 35km depth. The strongest and deepest one yet.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Below is a graph from the Kilauea volcano in HI that shows the number of EQ/month over the last five years. You can see the sharp increase during it's spectacular activity in 2018. Any plots like this for Cumbre Vieja?

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I'd expect tubes would appear cold, as you'd be seeing the cooler wall of the tube, not the high temperature inside.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I have not seen any public rendering of the quakes history, but I am sure at least 10 of the army of seismologists and vulcanologists over here are watching that. There is an earthquake registry website that probably has it, but I'd filter it for > 2.5 before trying to download. They have reported as many as 5000 total in 24h, but most are totally impreceptible to anything but the most sensitive instruments. 50 events were registered within the last 24. More data might be published on social media which I have not seen. I am antisocialmedia, so don't have a clue what they put there.

It is also believed that high SO2 emission levels is a signal of a longer term event as well. That's still going relatively strong.

Another is landmass vertical displacement. That's up by 10cm over the general vicinity.

Some lava has jumped the channel and is now paralleling the south side setting some new structures on fire there.

I can't decide what the thermal signature of the tubes should look like. As you say, there's some logic for darker, or lighter too, if they are warmer than the adjacent lava to the tube's side. Losing only 1°/km, the tubes must be relatively hot in comparison to that, but they may also be deeper. 3 to 10m below the surface.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Just turned on the live feed and saw this in upper corner. Not sure where this is coming from. It only goes back 15 days but the trend looks upward.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Where do you see that?

You inspired me to search around.

This is Spain's National Geographic Institute's quake log for the region.
There's a year of data there.
https://www.ign.es/web/ultimos-terremotos

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Still think the optical part of it is fascinating and mesmerizing..

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Great. You took a picture of the volcano goddess. Hope that doesn't make her mad. Now we must prepare appropriate sacrifice.indianbowbowright chickenbowleft

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Ooopppss sorry lol

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yes. That's the same Spanish National Geographic Institute.
I had looked at that a week ago and didn't see all that quake data. Plenty to play with there.

I'll try a 3D plot in GEarth replacing depth with altitude over the Lat,Long.with an icon scaled to magnitude, give it a time stamp and run a playback.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Those top two charts, though, looks suspicious. The M<2.0 EQ's seem to be either excluded, or are only partially included. Am I seeing that correctly?

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Looks like <2 data was deleted from the first chart entirely.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Once it broke through the surface, that allowed the lower magma to move up from those lower levels 13 to 16km deep. They originate below the SSE area and slant NNW to the vents.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Guide to Lava Collection
1) Carry at all times a 12 ft. extendable pole.
2) If all you have is a 6 ft. pole use any nearby object for support, like fence posts.
3) If objects like fence posts provide inadequate support, trust in your buddy to retain a firm grip on your rear pants pocket while you reach for 1000 C liquid rock.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

07 10 2021 12:13 UTC


The north face of the cone has been falling most of today releasing a vast quantity of lava in a new stream to the north of the existing flows affecting more residences and the industrial area. Huge partially melted rocks are flowing in this new stream
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh3pOS8yD0s
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oavSNNzXAuo&pp=Q...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ-r8U32xkU&feat...

I'm trying to find out exactly where the new stream is flowing. The recent southern stream is now almost at the Atlantic, having gone off the main cliff and flowing onto the previous franja made by the 1949 eruption.

There was at least one quake >4 today.

Winds have shifted to the south again and improved air quality, which was getting pretty severe in the valley. Residents were told to block door and windows with wet towels. We had a light dusting all the way over here, 100km away, last night.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

08 10 2021 12:06 UTC


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Chunks of material as large as a 3story houses are flowing down in the lava today. It's moving 700m/hr and temperature was measured at 1240°C. Apparently all that was left in Todoque is now gone.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I saw an edge of the crater melt off and role down the slope yesterday that was probably twice that big.


It's incredible to me that at least three times the lava volume of gas is driving this whole mess. I can't understand where that much gas can come from deep in the earth! How did it get there in the first place? What's generating it?

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Even if I have looked at it a lot it is still difficult to get a feeling for the size of things, on my screen it looks like a small and cozy fire with a bit to much spruce in it. winky smile

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

This new lava flow that broke open last night is really large compared to others I seen..



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

2
All volcanos have different gas signatures, but the 3 largest components are CO2, SO2, H20

The Earth's crust and upper mantle (7-50+/-km typ range of depth) have been mixing it up for 1-2B yrs. It's a regular teapot down there in the geologic time scale. At pressures reaching 100Kpsi, everything behaves like an extremely viscous liquid, complete with convection currents. Of course they may take 50-100M yrs or more to roll over. The gasses have been trapped at the surface, subducted, mixed with water and held for millions of years in the upper mantle. They are connected upwards in the magma when they pass over the lower mantle's hot spots. If there can be any free gas at 20mi depth with pressure of 4-5 X Youngs modulus of steel, (That's out of my know everything golder), it must be some kind of dense phase or at 2000+C plasma), they would expand 100 times by reaching the volcano's throat and another 66x when depressuring to atmos pressure, so there's a lot of potential energy stored up in that gas.

Volcano Gas 101
https://www.sandatlas.org/volcanic-gases/

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Now could be the time for a quick visit.
Checking the ferry schedule for this weekend.
One guy said he had been to each of these points.
Point 2 is 750m away. "The noise is really bad." A mountain trail at night. ponder
Point 3 is 1.2 miles. "Camera station and police barricade."


Viewpoint 2

Viewpoint 3

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Cone has broken again to the north face with two falls last night. Two vents appear to have joined together. Lava streams have increased with another 800 people evacuated.

Seismic activity continues strong. A number at the 37km depth.

Drones have located some animals isolated on a patch between two streams and they are delivering food and water.

10 10 2021 11:50 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Quote:

Drones have located some animals isolated on a patch between two streams and they are delivering food and water.

Outstanding.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I guess not so good if you like medium-rare...pipe

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

12 10 2021 06:50 UTC


RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Another explosive phase, seismic events: a 4.4, highest yet, at 35km depth preceded by a 4.2 at 9m m earlier at 13km. Around 35 events total yesterday. SO2 and lava continue at unprecedented rates. The northern flow is slowing, but expected to reach the Atlantic later today. Evacuees number 6700, some now having been evacuated more than once, the most recent from La Luguna, just NW of center in front of the advancing flows originating from the north face that collapsed on Monday. That lava flow appears to be continuing its push from the north central area into La Laguna, just to its NW.

13 10 2021 06:50 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

@1503-44, those maps being put out do not indicate, or at least it is not clear to me, which regions of the flow are active. Is there any graphic that shows which are active fronts? Also, when viewing the eruption online there is the reference to 3 vents. They even indicate it on the map above. But how is the lava moving from the vents to the active fronts? Are all 3 vents feeding one stream? Maybe this is not known or unclear or changes too rapidly to map. Watching the lava jet eruption online is fascinating, but it would also be interesting to be able to visualize where that molten waterfall goes after it leaves the screen frame.

This might be beyond your pay grade, but it was just a question I had. Thanks.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Nothing's beyond my pay grade.

The vents were feeding two streams flowing on or close to the existing one on the north side up till yesterday, but the latest collapse appears to be mostly going along the north side. It has also overflowed the existing channel, which caused the entire town of La Laguna to be evacuated, just before it took out the grocery store and football stadium.

The details about lava flow, what little there is, is is the underlying GIS data, which is published in several formats. I download that in KML to display in GEarth. Sometimes they publish the lava coverage using several polygons, sometimes overlapping, which isn't exactly explained why, but I take it to mean each poly represents the principle flow coverages since the last data was published. I give them some transparency and then they kind of appear as contour lines, although I really have no idea what thickness is actually being represented. There is no accumulated elevation data published.

I'll publish a picture of what that looks like and the link to the data base when I get back to my desktop.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making



The Link to the data download page is,
https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-co...
latest issue on top
Click on the zip of the issue of interest. All 3 zips listed in each issue are the same file.


When you doubleclick on the zip, all the files and formats are there.
Lava coverage is in "observedEventA"
Vent locations are in "observedEventP"
"physiography" are contour lines, but for the original landscape, no lava heights.
"transportation" are all roads and highlighted damaged roads within the area of interest.
"builtup" are all structures and highlighted damaged structures within the area of interest.
etc. etc.
I doubleclick on any "kmz" file and that opens Google Earth and displays the data within that file.

There is a way to give each flow a time stamp, then you can run an animated sequence in GE as it steps through the time stamps.
I should try that. Its a bit of a pain because the kmz files are a jumble of lines of KML code all wrapped around into one line, so it helps if its parsed to sort it out line by line before trying to add time stamps to it. No other way. The kmz files are zipped kml files, so you have to add ".zip" to the filename, then unzip or extract a text "kml" file from the binary kmz. Then you can edit, resave as kml and load back into GE.

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making


thanks 1503...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Yeah, thanks 1503-44. My questions stemmed from more personal interest. At this time I don't plan on doing any plotting myself, but you never know.

Edit>> Also. that twitter link great. I hadn't thought of looking there.
This from a few days ago is interesting. Graphic tracking the seismic activity. https://twitter.com/involcan/status/14471750266298...
While I'm at it here's one from Sep 28 https://twitter.com/involcan/status/14428545690594...

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

I like that earthquake depth display. I was going to do that, but now I don't have to.
14 10 2021 19:02 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

15 10 2021 12:10 UTC

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Geezz. It just keeps getting better.. The prior flows are so thick that new flows really don't like running down the prior ones and run off the sides making new pseudopods.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Right. That's been the problem since the cone broke on Monday. The accumulated flow layers are up to 10 to 15m thick in some places, have already filled in the primary revines, starting to cool and slow down, plus the ones that hit a bunch of houses get slowed down a bit with all the rubble as well. Previous channels are slower and backing up the new stuff, which there has really been a lot of lately, so they are now overflowing their banks upstream, going sideways at times. At 3000kg/m3 it prefers to flatten anything in the way.

The earthquakes are getting more frequent and more powerful. Another record quake of 4.6 this morning, which was the greatest magnitude ever recorded at La Palma and that came just a couple of hours after a 4.5 and after 3 x 3.7-8 yesterday.

They are still feeding the dogs with drones and trying to work out how to rescue them. A special rescue team is arriving tomorrow.

https://diariodeavisos.elespanol.com/2021/10/el-vo...

Volcano today had some powerful blasts of Ash and the airport is closed.
Video here,
https://twitter.com/i/status/1449399761950461952




RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Found some info on lava flow channels.



Now to compare that with the previous thermal image to look for the lava tube thermal signature.
Of course we are not sure that the diagram is correctly indicating the tubes.



RE: Potential Disaster in the Making

Bright yellow tracks on the diagram appear to be surface channels.
The thin lighter yellow lines of the diagram correspond to what must be the thermal signatures of the tubes.





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