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Uncontrolled rocket
6

Uncontrolled rocket

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Don't we have design loads to accommodate this? It will not likely cause any problems, but there is a remote chance it could do terrible damage. Mars a lago... Donald duck!


Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Nothing is really left to chance. Everything going up for 30-odd years has had the capability of deorbiting itself, and various militaries have tracked space junk and stood ready 24/7/365 to step in if necessary. Some made fun of Joint Space Command being reflagged as Space Force stateside, yet preparing for contingencies like this is exactly why those branches continue to grow. Most everything that goes up will eventually come down, and someone has to control it.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

2
Why would China care? They have plenty of people, and if it falls on another country, so be it.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Agreed

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

It probably wasn't meant to be left to chance - my guess is that there was a control system meant to use a final residual fuel to de-orbit/control re-entry, but this has failed. Without the command to stabilize and/or de-orbit, it's just ballistic, now. Likely the Chinese care about the negative consequences (eg. "losing face" for the failure) but don't expect them to admit to any error if it just burns up harmlessly. If debris actually does land, and (heaven forbid) does damage, then I'll be keen to see how they react to that. None of us will ever know, however, how they react to this internally. The western world will see only the message directed outward.

Please remember: we're not all rednecks!
www.sparweb.ca

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
The last one they sent up was the same, and although it dropped in the Atlantic it wasn't that far away from hitting the ground on none china territory.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (They have plenty of people, and if it falls on another country, so be it.)


...and there are too many 'other' people.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
they have killed people near their launch site.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Maybe death raining down from the sky will divert attention from flapping out a lab

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

China has been careless with the use of space before. In 2007 they did an anti-satellite weapon test which left debris in low Earth orbit.

Quote (IRstuff)

...since the launcher core was never intended to achieve orbit, so it has no deorbiting hardware nor controls
China has a rocked core capable of getting the payload to the intended orbit, but the required orbit would leave the core in orbit as well. Rather than delay months to add complex attitude controls and and de-orbit capability, they just went ahead and launched.

To mis-quote that old Vulcan proverb: "The needs of China outweigh the needs of the many."

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (they have killed people near their launch site.)


They're not the first to put a low value on human life... and, likely won't be the last.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

It's interesting that yesterday India had 3500 deaths and China recorded 0. Maybe they don't count so well. Maybe India didn't handle the pandemic very well... same could be said about Canada... our government screwed up badly, too...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

So by that I presume you would prefer the Chinese system?

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

...over the Indian, probably

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

That's pathetic. The CCP does 'manage' its people, while people in democracies manage themselves.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

or India...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I suspect that that picture is NOT from India. In India, it is tradition that the dead are cremated.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-'Product Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

That altitude is dropping fast, this thing is coming down soon. It's speeding up rapidly, maybe if it gets going fast enough it will break it apart more and less will reach the surface.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (it is tradition that the dead are cremated.)


The caption said it was from India and I understand cremation cannot keep up with the fallen...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Really neat site, Alistair... it does cross some fairly dense population areas for about 1/4 of its path... altitude dropping and also speeding up due to gravity I assume... Is there anything that can 'take out' a high speed 'projectile'? Is 275 km the altitude where gravity kicks in big time?

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
May 20th plus minus 2 days I was reading somewhere.

Also since the 90's its been international common agreement to not let anything de orbit uncontrolled over 10 tons. This thing is 21 tons. And they loads more of them to send up to complete the station.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Maybe chicken little was right...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

IRS... the caption said India... I'll see if I can find the link. Brazil is trying to catch up to India and only 1/5 the population.



Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
I suspect its a stock photo, doesn't really matter. The fact is there is loads of people not with us any more.

A internet photography friend who I admin a photography group with I found out this morning has passed away after catching covid at Christmas and then spent the last 3 months in a support home I think they are called.

Anyway I have just got my appointment through to get vaccinated on the 10th even though i seem to be immune to it any after not catching it when all the family around me were testing positive. One of them still has lung issues.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Even though the Indians cremate their dead, Muslims live there as well and they often bury theirs.
Not claiming to know anything about the picture.

Read in the first article that as much as about 20-40% of the mass can make it back to earth so there might be as much as 4,2 - 8,4 tons of debris coming down.

What is happening with the air traffic when things like this happens?

Best Regards A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
Absolutely nothing to my knowledge they run on a big sky small aircraft principle.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I thought I read somewhere they thought it would take about two years before it came down.
Well at least they keep track of it, so hopefully no one gets hurt.

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote:

the caption said India
Again, Brazil, not India. The photo is from Reuters, copied onto the Indiatimes gallery

Quote (https://photogallery.indiatimes.com/news/world/bon...)

Bone-chilling pictures of mass graves for coronavirus victims

Gravediggers open new graves as the number of dead people rose after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, at Vila Formosa cemetery, Brazil's biggest cemetery, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, April 2, 2020. REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli
https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/id...

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
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RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Not really, Spar. When we discuss failures of engineering stuff, we try to find out why. In this case, it is the CCP's callous attitude to human life. The only thing off topic is the attempted diversion to India's Covid disaster, and that can be traced to the same root cause.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

To reiterate... they are not the first, nor the last... all major countries can have their feet held to the fire.

Quote (They're not the first to put a low value on human life... and, likely won't be the last.)

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Maybe not the first or the last, just the worst, at least in modern times.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

An update:

The Pentagon is tracking an out of control Chinese rocket expected to crash into Earth

The Chinese Long March 5B rocket is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere around May 8. No one knows where. But don't panic!


https://www.cnet.com/news/the-pentagon-is-tracking...

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-'Product Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I guess they were modern times back then, too... Future generations will be making the same observation... Interesting how someone arbitrarily set the limit at 10 (tonnes?)tons, as opposed to 20 tons ... I would have thought that the rules would preclude anything 'dangerous'(not totally controllable) from coming down.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

The space shuttle Columbia was 80 tons.

It’s not a good precedent to set to do it on purpose. But as worry goes, there’s hundreds of tons of stuff flying over me on any given day of the week that could come down unexpectedly.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I was aware of the bunch of space junk... just don't give it much thought.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Looking at the tracking data, it's maximum latitude is around 43 degrees...I'm up here around 47, so no worries for me. Sucks to be the rest of you guys nearer the equator, though. Maybe the Chinese space agency should yell "fore" before each launch?

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

"fore" lol atom

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Yes, we're closer to 34˚ N latitude sad

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-'Product Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

You can move... summers are generally pretty good in Canada. We're north of the 49th...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I'll be sleeping in the lava tube.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
looks like its going to be 8th or 9th of May.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Donald duck!

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Booked.

CNN said it cound leave a 100km long debris field.

Does China have insurance for that kind of thing?

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote:

...as worry goes, there’s hundreds of tons of stuff flying over me on any given day of the week that could come down unexpectedly.

I often gave tours of a former employer's large engine plant where one line ended with ~10 ton engines hanging ~20' up from a rail traveling across a main aisle. It was a busy plant so folks rarely noticed the engines going overhead in that area, allowing for one of my favorite jokes - pointing up and reminding folks of their weight just as we walked underneath. Some of the facial expressions and walking routes were priceless (but never concerning) but I suspect there was complaint bc the aisle was eventually rerouted for no perceivable reason.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (CWB1)

the aisle was eventually rerouted for no perceivable reason.

Quote (CWB1)

just as we walked underneath.

I think that was the reason. My experience in industrial environs - steel mills and ship yards - you don't walk under suspended loads, period. It could be an empty BTH device, you walked around. And when nothing was on the hook, it was parked such that a sudden failure of the cables wouldn't drop the hook onto a walkway.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

We suspend energized power lines over roads and walkways all the time.

Is it just a matter of perception, or the risk involved?

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Good point, cranky. Probably a bit of both. Qualitatively speaking, we started stringing up power lines over our heads even before we were free climbing the Empire State Building's frame and riding the hook on the cranes, and I'm guessing the track record for performance of that cabling is much better than for rigged loads.

There's also a risk/reward aspect: in a factory, a worker loses 45 seconds every hour because they have to go around column A to the left instead of the to the right. That math works out for me if there's a risk of being crushed by something because somebody was a little too tired that morning and didn't thoroughly complete their pre-shift rigging inspection. But if you have a cable that doesn't move (except for wind, birds landing on it, etc.) that's fixed in place using methods proven to work over a century of experience with a vanishingly small failure rate, I'll walk under the power line if the alternative is to cut off power to a million people just so I can walk my dog.

With that said, there is a push where I am to move electrical infrastructure underground. Granted, this is more for reliability in a hurricane prone environment than everyday safety, but the latter is a positive if unintended consequence.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (CNN said it cound leave a 100km long debris field.)


There goes Brooklyn...flush2

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

In Alistair's link it disappears here the 14 of may not sure how accurate it is.



/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
Thats just a cut off point, no point crunching the numbers after that it will be down days before that.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

That is just a cut off point ??? meaning..

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
They have to put an end point to analysis run. No point running it any further because they are 99.999% sure its going to be a smoking lump of melted metal days before that.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Okey smile Thanks.
I saw it "disappear" a second time, this time earlier.. hmm

Well I guess there is no flying for you, to Cyprus the.
It's seems to pass over the Mediterranean a couple of times a day.

It would be quite ironic if it fell down over Peking though.

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (We suspend energized power lines over roads and walkways all the time.)


A suspended energy line hardly weight anything...lol

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
Nothing published on notice to airmen system. I shall see if there is anything tomorrow. But I doubt it.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

An estimate of the actual landing area should be possible tomorrow (Friday), with it coming down Saturday or Sunday. It's a chaotic system though, so predictions will be pretty big ranges.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I can't find any one taking Bets, giving odds. on impact zone ponder

IF it hits east coast US, was it really "uncontrolled"

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (IF it hits east coast US, was it really "uncontrolled")


A lot of Americans wouldn't think so...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
I am more concerned about it hitting US soil than I am about it coming anywhere near me in the air.

The thing is its not just this one they have multiple more similar missions before the space station is complete.

I suspect the next ones they will have a lump of explosives onboard and blow it up in the final stages of re entry.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

by starting the space program with something more than zero tolerance for space junk debris, the door has been opened. The imp is out of the bottle.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

The calculations don't seems much better now.

Estimated Reentry Date: predicted between 0100 UTC May 8 and 1900 UTC May 9.

2021-035B, CZ-5B R/B, 2021 May 9, 02:52, ±360 minutes, TIP Message 2021 May 8, 02:22



I guess it is still up there.

/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

You're trying to scare me now. In my case that's a margin of error of either -4.5 or +10 minutes, or no worries. depending on if that's an upswing orbit, or a downswing.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I found a site with a more up-to-date prediction. https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/eu-sst-monitors-reen...

Southern Europe keep your eyes open. Even if it doesn't land there (hope not), there's a fair chance of being able to see it streaking through the sky ...

Doesn't look like it will go back home to China, but there are still plenty of landmasses within the re-entry window.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Well right now you seem to be safe 1503-44, by the way didn't you get a lava chamber?

From Brians site.
The current window of 2021-05-09 02:11 UTC ±190 minutes



But then there are these +-190 minutes.. atom

BR A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

I just realised, the irresponsibility of people can be boggling...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

2021-05-09 02:32 UTC ±139 minutes




/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

ITS £_÷/=£#%&^£ GETTING CLOSER!!!

Now its more like +/- 1.5 minutes!!!

Maybe I'll just get some Swedish vodka, climb up on the roof and take pictures.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

(OP)
maybe it will take out that rock of yours

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

It might take out the south side of the mountain. Maybe the 1000m high ridge to the south will shield me. Geeeeeezzzzzz!!! Hope it comes in at a really flat angle. Man. The south side of that ridge is not the place to be.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Whats its ETA? Is it that 02:30h GMT. Thats 3h 38m from now.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

We have to set are hope to the +-139 minutes.
But then again it gives it four more chances, ponder

Yes Swedish vodka and Tenerife lemon "vodka sour" that will do the trick.

With a bit of luck you might be able to sell of some "space" junk.
There might be a collectors market for it?

Best Regards A



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

2021 May 9, 02:04 ±60 minutes UTC

https://www.zarya.info/Diaries/Launches/Decays.php



Not shore if is good or bad that they do not have the same picture.



/A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

+/- 60m is a pretty wide bulls eye. Yeah, almost 2 orbits.

There were too many spiders in the tube.

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Missed!

Statements above are the result of works performed solely by my AI providers.
I take no responsibility for any damages or injuries of any kind that may result.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

from CNN:

"The good news is that debris plunging toward Earth -- while unnerving -- generally poses very little threat to personal safety.
"The risk that there will be some damage or that it would hit someone is pretty small -- not negligible, it could happen -- but the risk that it will hit you is incredibly tiny. And so I would not lose one second of sleep over this on a personal threat basis," Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Astrophysics Center at Harvard University, told CNN this week."

My original thought... but with the hype I changed my mind into thinking it was something far more serious (if it lands on a populated area it could still be problematic). I have no idea of how much information we have out there is 'political tripe', anymore. We'll know in a few hours...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Reminds me of the COVID sensationalism.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Good news! Hopefully the Chinese don't write this one off as a success.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

2
Sorry Tugboat... no sensationalism... just political interference... there are over 3M deaths attributed to it that didn't need to happen. The indifference and lack of care is part of the same problem...just like carbon footprints.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

From Saudi Arabia https://twitter.com/i/status/1391240888727244801

https://www.zarya.info/Diaries/blog/tracks.php?eve...

I'm thinking that in the video from Jordan, the rocket was still high enough up to not encounter enough drag to start melting and disintegrating, the video from Saudi Arabia was in the midst of the main melting and disintegration, and the video from Oman was probably from whatever heavy bits were left after that (still about 10 km up). Those still went another 2000 km before hitting the ocean.

RE: Uncontrolled rocket

Quote (TugboatEng)

Good news! Hopefully the Chinese don't write this one off as a success.
But it was, it crash as far as possible from Beijing!

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