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The oceans are warming faster than we thought

The oceans are warming faster than we thought

The oceans are warming faster than we thought

(OP)
… and scientists suggest we brace for impact.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/11/...

From the link:
"Sea level is rising with observable consequences along the East Coast and around the world, both physically and financially. Trenberth and his colleagues say if society continues to emit greenhouse gas at its current rate, oceans will rise one foot by the end of the century on top of the rise expected from melting land ice on Greenland and Antarctica.

Scientists have started to pin down how climate change is loading the dice on extreme weather. After Hurricane Harvey, researchers found the storm’s deadly and costly effects were probably made worse by warmer oceans. And, as The Washington Post reported in December, “a drought in East Africa that left 6 million people in Somalia facing food shortages was caused by dramatic ocean warming that could not have occurred without humans' impact on the environment.”

After several studies published over the past couple of years, some of which included errors that needed to be corrected and published for the record, “we felt the need to do a more general assessment," said Trenberth.



“Yes, we need to try and stop emitting greenhouse gas. But the inertia is large,” Trenberth said. “Therefore the climate is going to continue to change.” He believes adaptation is the way forward, rather than geoengineering, which is “not thought out well at all and problematic.”"


Apart from reducing GHG emissions, what changes should we make to current standard engineering practice to minimise the total cost of extreme events associated with the climate, including winds, floods, extreme heat, fires, and droughts?

Doug Jenkins
Interactive Design Services
http://newtonexcelbach.wordpress.com/

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

(OP)
IRstuff - I think we must be talking about different things.

I'm talking about changes to design codes, how we calculate the level of event for a given return period, and how these things are applied in practice.

So I see it as applicable at every level from the individual design engineer upwards.

Doug Jenkins
Interactive Design Services
http://newtonexcelbach.wordpress.com/

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

Doug, yes, I understood what you were saying. I'm saying that the codes are not sufficient, in of themselves. Much of the Gulf coast has design requirements that were put in place to prevent flood and storm damage, but business interests have managed to get politicians to waive or negate such requirements.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

One obvious thing we as a society could do is stop encouraging bad practices such as building in flood zones and in forests. (says someone whose house is surrounded by fire prone state forest).

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

I've often thought that, but the reality of the world is driven by economics and the ability to feed one's family. 40% of the world's population lives within 100 km of a coast, because ports are necessary for commerce, as are fishing or sea-farming for food. Likewise, the historical flood plains of Egypt was its breadbasket, so people lived in the flood plain to provide food for themselves and others. Wholesale migration, barring any removal of available land from semi-permanent flooding, is unlikely, unless insurance companies eliminate coverage or governments refuse to allow (re)construction.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

In the 70's, Louisiana got a lot of rain and parts of my home town flooded. Recently they got another downpour and more of my home town flooded. All of these creeks feed into the Sabine River below Toledo Bend Dam, if I remember right.

Flood zones change and have been for years, in my experience. In Lake Charles, I lived on the water and experienced a 100 year flood in the early to mid-80's, from heavy rainfall. It was quite bad and caused a lot of damage. Clean up was a lot of work. Not long after, another 100 year flood happened. Then another. No one expected to be flooded as we were and even some that were very cautious were flooded.

Insurance companies and government are backing away, from what I've read over the years. They increased rates in the 80's, after those floods from heavy rainfall. Some insurance companies dropped flood insurance, which forced getting it from the government. They changed the rules in the 80's, in Louisiana, once flood zones were changed because of hundred year floods in rapid succession. When I bought my first home in Lake Charles, I made sure it was not in a flood zone and had enough elevation to not eventually end up in a flood zone. The highest elevation in Lake Charles is about 20'. More information about Lake Charles and floodplain management is here: City of Lake Charles Floodplain Management

We're going to have to change and I can't see any way around it. Dr. Kevin Schaefer's presentation had some slides about coastal areas no longer being inhabitable due to rising sea levels. It's going to be significant change, which makes me think our adaption is inevitable.

Pamela K. Quillin, P.E.
Quillin Engineering, LLC
NSPE-CO, Central Chapter
Dinner program: http://nspe-co.org/events.php

RE: The oceans are warming faster than we thought

I suspect we'll adapt when forced to, sometime between 11:59 and 12:01 (12:00 being the crisis time).

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

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