Rule of thumb used to be 10 years, but in practice I am sure it is more than that since the fleet is not actually getting any more efficient on a model for model basis - the new version of my car has airbags, better crash, climate control, more loudspeakers, a bigger engine, bigger tires, electric windows, maybe an electric seat, etc etc etc, so in the real world I suspect its fuel consumption is only a fraction better. It is a much better car, but that is not quite the point.
Cradle to grae analysis is incredibly difficult to do well, it is very easy to bias the result by your prejudices, witness the recent one that demonstrated that a Hummer was greener than a Prius.
Perhaps 1% of the money currently being wasted on climate change analysis could usefully be diverted towards answering your question. Fat chance.
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.