Log In

Come Join Us!

Are you an
Engineering professional?
Join Eng-Tips Forums!
  • Talk With Other Members
  • Be Notified Of Responses
    To Your Posts
  • Keyword Search
  • One-Click Access To Your
    Favorite Forums
  • Automated Signatures
    On Your Posts
  • Best Of All, It's Free!

*Eng-Tips's functionality depends on members receiving e-mail. By joining you are opting in to receive e-mail.

Posting Guidelines

Promoting, selling, recruiting, coursework and thesis posting is forbidden.

Students Click Here

Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo Analysis


One of project requirements is to carry out risk analysis using the monte carlo method. Anybody have got some idea of what is this monte carlo and how it relates to P3.



RE: Monte Carlo Analysis

Anything on this monte carlo analysis? Has anyone got some experience?



RE: Monte Carlo Analysis


Monte Carlo simulation is a process in which you can run risk analysis based on a random number generator.

For example, say you have a task, 'Build Walls for House'. Based on your experience, you know that the best case scenario is that you can build the walls in 3 days. Worst case, there might be bad weather that will cause it to be as many as 20 days. But typically, you finish in 5 days.

This creates an envelope, from 3-20 days, in which you could possibly fall. The monte carlo simulation goes through 1,000 iterations where one time it might select that you finish in 4 days, another time 12 days, etc.

What the results end up telling you is your most likely scenario.

I work for the company that makes the risk analysis software for P3. I have a rather large PDF that illustrates Monte Carlo here - http://www.pertmaster.com/docs/PertmasterCorporateNEW.pdf (skip to page 9).

But ultimately, what you're trying to get from Monte Carlo is a risk histogram. This tells you, based on the probability of your risks occurring, if you'll come in on time (or to budget, if you're looking at cost rather than schedule).
This can be seen here http://www.pertmaster.com/images/email/Histogram.jpg.

We have people here that will be happy to give you a introductory course to Monte Carlo risk analysis if you need further help. Just let me know and I can get you in contact with someone.

Brooke Browne
brooke at pertmaster dot com.

Hope this helps!

RE: Monte Carlo Analysis

TQ Brooke...

RE: Monte Carlo Analysis

Actually this is my first project that monte carlo analysis is required. Initially I had mix feelings on the usefullness of the analysis. We had performed the analysis twice, 1st one during the basic engr design. The 2nd one, just recently during the detailed engr design.

To me, monte carlo analysis is just another tool in managing the risks. It can be schedule, cost, quality or any other risks. In our case, we used monte carlo to manage the schedule risk. I believe the process of doing this, will be similar with other risk as well.

For sharing purpose below are the activities that we performed prior to and after the analysis:

1) Extablish a level 3 project schedule (fyi we use Primavera 3.0). There are about 2000 separate activities with 1000 linkages in the schedule...from start to completion of the project.

2) The schedule must be validated by the respective discipline engineers. This is important to ensure the correct linkage has been established.

3) Run the critical path analysis. Definition of critical path is zero float or nearly zero float. From this critical path analysis, we get about 100 activities considered "critical" by P3.

4) Next is to establish the 3 scenarios (optimistic duration, most likely duration, pessimistic duration) for each of the 100 activities.

5) We believe the effective way to come up with this scenarios is to carry out a multi-discipline review about 5-10 discipline engrs. In our case, we conducted a half day review session....go activity by activity and finally agreed on the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic duration.

6) During the meeting we also developed a document called risk register. The objectives of this doc are to identify the potential risks, assess the risk (H,M,L) based on its consequence + likelihood, propose mitigations, assign the person in charge and due date. The document is a life document. The status will be reported to the management.

7) Once having the information on the scenarios, the next thing is to run the software. We used PERTMASTER. The end result is the probability of achieving the target date. This will be presented in terms of P10, P50, & P90.

How useful is the analysis? I personaly believe it's useful, however it depends on the inputs i.e. garbage in garbage out. The basic schedule must be right and the persons involved during the review session must have adequate experience to determine the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic.

Definitely having monte carlo analysis is much better than based on our guts feeling...it takes time though...

RE: Monte Carlo Analysis

Hi Norzul!

Can I ask - did you use Pertmaster previous to my post on the 14th?

We'll be happy to help you further if you need.


RE: Monte Carlo Analysis

Yes we used Pertmaster. Actually our consultant i.e. Foster Wheeler UK used. I try to learn from the downloaded version of Pertmaster.

Red Flag This Post

Please let us know here why this post is inappropriate. Reasons such as off-topic, duplicates, flames, illegal, vulgar, or students posting their homework.

Red Flag Submitted

Thank you for helping keep Eng-Tips Forums free from inappropriate posts.
The Eng-Tips staff will check this out and take appropriate action.

Reply To This Thread

Posting in the Eng-Tips forums is a member-only feature.

Click Here to join Eng-Tips and talk with other members! Already a Member? Login


The Low-Code Digital Transformation Guide
Change the way you develop apps and, in turn, change the way your business operates and engages with customers, leading to new channels of revenue. This ebook is the culmination of 14 years of experience with 4,000 customers that have all transformed their business through low-code development. Download Now

Close Box

Join Eng-Tips® Today!

Join your peers on the Internet's largest technical engineering professional community.
It's easy to join and it's free.

Here's Why Members Love Eng-Tips Forums:

Register now while it's still free!

Already a member? Close this window and log in.

Join Us             Close