What's the plan for EVs?

[GregLocock]

At the moment Tesla is driving the EV market in the West and on social media, while BYD and some others are busy in the Chinese domestic market. GM and Ford have announced they'll pick up Tesla's plug and chargers, a significant step forward in commonsense.

Meanwhile Toyota has been conspicuously keeping almost entirely out of the pure BEV space, which is odd since their PHEVs are rather good.

So while Tesla chases after irrelevancies like big glass cockpits (should be illegal) and autonomous vehicles that aren't autonomous, there's still plenty of work to do on battery tech (and tesla is working on that as well). The Holy Grail is solid state batteries which offer about twice the energy density, and don't burst into flames as much. They still have a lot of energy stored in them, but at least they don't have the organic fluids which cause most of the issues when a fire starts.

So Toyota has announced a strategy for solid state batteries, and how it proposes to redesign the car around them. When I get on a high bandwidth connection I'll watch it

https://youtu.be/v4ZSuO1UQ4k

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[BrianPetersen]

Nothing really new in there.

They want to build something with 1000 km range, through a combination of new batteries and aero. Mercedes EQ already built a prototype which does that with today's batteries and other manufacturers have long range vehicles, though not quite 1000 km (Ioniq 6, VW id7). It will not be a big square SUV...

Modular construction. Hyundai, VW, GM are already doing that or have it in the works.

Multi material unibodies. Tesla is the leader here.

New vehicles coming to market starting in 2026.

Toyota needs this re-think. Hydrogen is not happening, customers are buying EVs of other brands, the BZ4x is sub-par, and Toyota is being left behind.

 

[TugboatEng]

The CEO of Toyota has been somewhat candid on his opinion of electric only vehicles. Toyota is going to continue developing their combustion engine portfolio so they can gain market share when the grid capacity limits are reached and other manufacturers won't be able to sell vehicles at all.

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/t...-of-auto-industry-is-doubting-ev-only-future/

 

[rb1957]

somewhere I saw some interesting data about eh CO2 equivalents of EVs (being pretty awful, and maybe breakeven with gas cars after many years).

Luckily when I bought my EV I didn't do it for the CO2 ... I did it for the $s ... I figure the EV breaks even after about 4 years (given my usage and the price of gas), and the price of gas is only going to go up, and the govt subsidies will get removed sometime (like they were in the past, only to be reinstated with the govt changed ... 'twas ever thus)

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[dik]

I didn't read the article, just skimmed, but apparently the head of Toyota has stepped aside (I think he's Toyota's grandson) and the new CEO, from a high end car manufacturer is taking the helm. They are going big on EVs with an improved battery system that allows much longer range and much faster charging times. I'll try to locate the article.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

This isn't the article that I saw, but has part of the info

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/26/business/japan-toyota-ceo-steps-down-intl-hnk/index.html

and more

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-ev-strategy-new-ceo-takes-charge-2023-04-06/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

I wonder if he was pushed out for daring to challenge the narrative.

 

[BrianPetersen]

Thing is, he's not wrong in stating that in a situation of limited battery-raw-material resources, hybrids can be a better use of that material.

Problem is, the market is speaking, usually once people make the decision to electrify, they want to go all the way.

 

[GregLocock]

My personal situation is such that a 'heavy' hybrid, such as the Volt, or a BEV with a range extender is the biggest step I can take towards electrifiation, but the Volt is a good example of where that concept falls over. Expensive, complex, and rather small interior for a reasonably large car.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[TugboatEng]

Problem is, the market is speaking, usually once people make the decision to electrify, they want to go all the way.

The problem might be that it is not actually the market speaking but a cabal, maybe involving members of the G7, IMF, IPCC, and whatever conferences all of those private jets fly to.

 

[BrianPetersen]

??

https://www.motor1.com/news/669135/tesla-model-y-worlds-best-selling-car-q1-2023/

 

[dik]

It only makes sense if your source of power is not fossil fuel based...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

One could argue that the market is being manipulated to create that result. Look at all of the states passing legislation to ban fossil fueled cars in 10 years. That might create a fear of a lack of gas stations to fill up yet. Of course the governors signing this legislation are the ones with private jets.

 

[BrianPetersen]

It only makes sense if your source of power is not fossil fuel based...

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-a...cial-territorial-energy-profiles-ontario.html

About a third of the way down.

There's a spot of trouble on the horizon, with one of the big nuke plants scheduled to be decommissioned in a couple of years; they'd better figure something out to replace that.

 

[SnTMan]

Not to worry, the boffins will pull something out of their, well you know

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[dik]

More about Toyota... still 5 years away...

"Toyota, the Japanese automotive giant, is making bold strides in the electric vehicle (EV) sector with plans to develop an EV powered by a solid-state battery that boasts an impressive range of nearly 1,200 km (750 miles) and a remarkably short charge time of only 10 minutes.

In comparison, Tesla’s Superchargers can also provide approximately 200 miles of charge in 15 minutes. But, Toyota is aiming for a far better range boost.
Toyota’s ambitious goals were revealed as part of its new technology roadmap, which outlines the introduction of high-performance lithium-ion batteries for their next-generation EVs by 2026."

https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/toyo...ves-932-mile-range-in-10-minutes-of-charging/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BrianPetersen]

Re EV range vs charging times ... The range matters less if there are charging stations everywhere. It's all well and good for the battery to charge up in 10 minutes, but current charging stations can deliver 350kW (CCS vehicles with 800v architecture) and if the full voltage and amp ratings were simultaneously delivered (doesn't happen in reality) that would be 500kW. Tesla does not use 800v yet. (Max 250kW charging for now)

If the car has 100kWh battery and can take 350 kW charging all the way to full then that's about 20 minutes to charge, usually less because you usually don't start from completely empty. Higher powered charging would make connectors and cables heavier and there's already complaints about that.

And ... from someone who actually has an EV ... it doesn't matter. Mine is outdated tech with slow fast-charging (about 50 kW) and about 400 km range. And ... It's fine. In 33000 km 95%+% of charging has been overnight slow charging at home. On the long trips, after 300 km I'm ready for a break. I pull into the charging station in an OnRoute motorway service center. I plug in. I tap my RFID card. I walk over to the Tim Hortons coffee shop. I wait in line, order, get my order, have a coffee, go back to the car, 25 minutes have gone by and it's ready for another couple hundred km. Yes, it would be nice if it charged faster but it's not far off as is. It doesn't need megawatt charging power. It doesn't need a thousand km of range.

What's needed from an actual EV owner.
AC slow charging everywhere including apartment buildings and street parking. Fast-ish chargers 50 - 100 kW everywhere, at restaurants, theatres, shopping centres. High power fast chargers at motorway stops (we already have those although they will need more charging spots). There needs to be ONE payment method for ALL of them (no apps, no dedicated RFID tags unless they work EVERY charging station) and those charging stations need to be trustworthy and reliable!

 

[TugboatEng]

Does nobody understand the absurdity of "50-100kW" everywhere? That's 3/0 wire if you're servicing it with 480V.

A motorway stop servicing 10 chargers at 350kW each would require it's own friggin substation.

 

[dik]

More news from Toyota:

"Toyota’s stock skyrocketed on Thursday to an 11-month high and posted its best single-week gain in 14 years, after the Japanese auto behemoth unveiled plans for its next generation of electric vehicles to compete with other automakers amid a surge in EV production."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianb...eration-of-electric-vehicles/?sh=782ac3a33b52

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BrianPetersen]

You don't need 350kW chargers everywhere (or even higher-powered than that, in a vain attempt to accommodate the people who still have petrol-engine "fill it up in 5 minutes" mentality. Those are only needed on long-distance travel routes, and not everyone passing by is going to be stopping there ... only those on long trips. You need lower-powered charging everywhere.

In 33,xxx km over 9 months - I'm driving near double the average - I've relied on DC fast-chargers TWICE. That's it. It isn't like combustion-engine vehicles that are paying a visit to a petrol station once a week (or more). The EVs need longer visits to such places but fewer of them (due to slow-charging at home overnight).

If you can "always be charging" the power demand for the average driver in a sensible EV (not a Hummer!) with average driving per year can be satisfied with a 120V outlet ... (Proof: 20,000 km per year, 20 kWh per 100 km which is more than what mine uses, = 4000 kWh per year, that's 11 kWh per day, about 8 or 9 hours of charging at 120V x 12 amps) It's only on the longer road trips that you need the higher powered DC fast-chargers.

A few (two or three) 50 kW "fast" chargers at places where people can be expected to stay for an hour or two (restaurant, theatre) will let drivers get a FULL charge while they watch a movie. That's a customer convenience. (Not everyone visiting a restaurant will be coming from 400 km away! You don't need one at every parking spot.) Lower powered "level 2" 11 kW AC chargers (Even my Bolt can make use of an 11 kW AC charger) would let people get a partial charge while eating a meal ... couple hours on such a charger would get my car 150 km down the road. You still don't need one at every parking spot ... just a few, to accommodate the people in the midst of road trips.

Norway is furthest on the way to personal-transport electrification, and they're getting it done.

edit: I don't even bother plugging in my Bolt every day. It wasn't plugged in today, and it isn't plugged in tonight, because the half-charge that's in it now is way more than enough to do tomorrow's shopping errands. I'll plug it in Sunday night. Monday's travels should use around half a charge.