That sounds easy enough to prototype... especially if you don't mind potting a thermocouple in the Sylgard so you can measure the temperature.
Some rusty thoughts...
The question doesn't really seem like how hot will it get, but how long will it take to trip? What is the spec on your fuse (1 hour at 150C, 1 minute at 160C, 1 second at 170C, etc.). You'll have to determine a useful response time first.
From the EE perspective a more meaningful question seems like 'how much power will the resistor dissipate before it trips the fuse?'. Then you can work with thermal conductance (watt/C).
A quick look on the web shows a thermal conductivity of 0.85 watt per (meter degree Kelvin).
At this point I'd have to hit the heat transfer books too to figure out how to convert the thermal conductivity into a thermal conductance for your package.