Good points by all - in the respective point of view. In summary, Settlement of roadways consist of:
1> Foundation settlement due to overlying loads. This has least control but is for all intents and purposes a static load situation (viz., soft clays overlain by moderate embankment). This occurs whether the embankment is "well compacted" or poorly compacted other than the influence of the density of the well vs poor placement
2> Embankment settlement due to self consolidation and/or compaction due to transient loadings leaving residual deformations on release. Obviously it happens more with clayey soils that are poorly compacted than with granular soils even if poorly compacted. Better compaction usually means less self-consolidation - unless you build up too much porewater pressure in compaction of clayey soils - then you can get more even if you think that you have densified quite a bit.
3> structural pavement layers undergoing repetitive loading. I found that base course and wearing course asphaltic pavements 'densify' some 2% during secondary compaction - i.e., traffic. If we placed it at 97% Marshall, then later it would end up (say in a couple of years) as 99%. This translates into a settlement although it is minor. It could be calculated but need to consider 3-d effects - not just 1-d loading. Well compacted base courses will settle very little if properly compacted. Subgrades a bit more - as less attention is paid to them.
4> pavement material deterioration. Can be due to rutting - as per Ron's note above; can be due to shoving due to softening at high ambient temperatures (poor choice of binder). As years go on - it is lateral differential settlements (channelization) in my view that manifest themselves.
What is hard is to find out what is acceptable settlement for each condition - especially with foundation settlement where you have, in practical terms, little real control.
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