More bad climate models.

[GregLocock]

In 2018 somebody used CMIP5 to predict what happens to the circulation in the North Atlantic

MIP5 says the big Atlantic current should be getting weaker. In fact it is getting stronger.

This current, AMOC is responsible for transporting cold water south and warm water North, and affects the entire Northern Atlantic climate.

Faster, real

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15485-5

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725

Slower, rubbish computer models

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5

Of course the funniest is this one, comparing real data with CMIP6

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001281

The literature drawing attention to an upward bias in climate model warming responses in the tropical troposphere extends back at least 15 years now (Karl et al., 2006). Rather than being resolved, the problem has become worse, since now every member of the CMIP6 generation of climate models exhibits an upward bias in the entire global troposphere as well as in the tropics. The models with lower ECS values have warming rates somewhat closer to observed but are still significantly biased upward and do not overlap observations.




Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[TugboatEng]

This is what happens when you use temperature when you should be using heat. If only climatology majors included a course in thermodynamics.

 

[dik]

I guess it depends on who has the best 'snakeoil' or who's information is more correct...

"For the first time, we have combined a range of previous studies and found they provide a consistent picture of the AMOC evolution over the past 1600 years," says Rahmstorf. "The study results suggest that it has been relatively stable until the late 19th century. With the end of the little ice age in about 1850, the ocean currents began to decline, with a second, more drastic decline following since the mid-20th century." Already the 2019 special report on the oceans of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded with medium confidence "that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened relative to 1850-1900."

https://www.realclimate.org/index.p...eakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation-amoc/

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-gulf-stream-weakest-millennium.html

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...t-has-ever-been-in-the-past-1000-years/908377

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

I guess from a thermo 'point of view' we have a very complex system that heat is being added to it because the greenhouse gases are preventing heat to 'leave'. Who knows what the outcome of that will be.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Combining models that don't work until you get one that gives the results you want to show is BAD SCIENCE, dik.

What you have are a bunch of data scientists (not physists, not engineers, not anybody without a conflict of interest) trying to correlate numbers they know nothing about. Temperature and warming are not directly coupled.

Who knows what the outcome will be? We could start here.

http://www.flycarpet.net/en/psyonline

Notice that the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of air by 1°C from 20°C to 21°C is 6.5x greater at 90% humidity than it is at 0%. That's a huge difference. That's why we need to be talking heat, not temperature.

 

[dik]

I'm well aware of that Tug... GIGO, if I recall. Unfortunately, their data seems to be supportive of change. We're in new territory and they likely don't even have 'yardstick' to set as a criteria, other than change is happening that appears to be greater than that of the past.

Just because they don't have a 'name' or designation doesn't invalidate their observations.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Notice that the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of air from 1°C to 21°C is 6.5x greater at 90% humidity than it is at 0%. That's a huge difference. That's why we need to be talking heat, not temperature.

My guess is that this is the 'dumbing down' of the science by journalists that aren't very knowledgeable of science and thermodynamics.

I find it hard to believe that the models would be based on anything other than "conservation of energy". Otherwise, the entire field would be absolutely obliterated by any physicist who reviewed their concepts / models.

 

[dik]

I'm not sure the information is accurate enough to require the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. It's fledgling at best, but there are strong indications that 'something is afoot' (with apologies to Sherlock).

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

That's very optimistic. Even a google search of scholarly articles reveals almost zero returns on enthalpy. There is only talk of temperature. When you tell people every day that they're hot, eventually they'll believe they are too hot. If you tell them every day that there is too much enthalpy, I don't know what conclusion they're going to make.

 

[dik]

The models might, or should, include that added heat required because of the increase in humidity, which comes, automatically, with climate change.

Just because enthalpy is not referenced, doesn't mean it's not included.
It's obscure enough, that it might have been missed by the reporters, or not included (or dumbed down, as Josh notes) by the presenters.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

The increase in specific enthalpy caused by increased evaporation would tend to temper the warming. Think of it as a moderator. If that effect were ignored it would explain why the climate models all overestimate the degree of temperature change.

 

[dik]

It may be that it is already moderating and that without it, things could be a tad worse, and that the effects are already included.

I suspect the models are so complex that the effects of entalpy would be included and would be one of the more simple features of the program. It may be a big assumption, but collectively these guys are likely knowlegable scientists and the work is peer reviewed, strenuously.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

The increase in specific enthalpy caused by increased evaporation would tend to temper the warming. Think of it as a moderator. If that effect were ignored it would explain why the climate models all overestimate the degree of temperature change.

Well, I tend to agree that the climate models have not been good. The climate reporting has been worse. And, the political posturing and fear mongering around the around it is even worse.

I have often see reporting on speculative "spiral effects" (i.e. methane from thawing permafrost or such). But, I haven't seen almost any reporting on moderating effects. Some potential moderating effects:

a) More heat means more algae growth, which removes CO2.
b) More CO2 means more plant growth, which removes CO2.
c) Potential effects of higher humidity (which is what you mentioned). But, I think of this as other methods of energy dissipation. More wind, more clouds, stronger ocean currents or such.

I'm sure there are a dozen others, as well as a dozen other reasons why we should be skeptical of doomsday predictions.

Regardless, there is a real need to be smart and efficient in our response. Mitigation of the effects of climate change is likely to cost a lot less than any attempt to completely prevent it.

 

[Tomfh]

A big problem is that everyone wants to show warming. No-one wants models and papers that say "global warming not as bad as we thought". That bias is there all the time. Hence the models tending to overpredict sensitivity to CO2.

 

[TugboatEng]

Regardless, there is a real need to be smart and efficient in our response.

And that's it in a nutshell. We need to reduce energy consumption by making existing processes more efficient. However, with the doomsday proficies, they seem to have two unrelated goals. The first is to profit financially off climate change and the second, which dik alluded to with his Socialist China link, is the advancement of the CCP throughout the rest of the world.

 

[dik]

Socialist or not, they are a big part of the problem, albeit not the biggest on a per capita basis, and they seem to be doing something about it:

https://www.ft.com/content/3eb8aee7-6cd7-4811-97de-f16390b75c17

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Re Item a, every bit helps... I don't know what the effects of moss will be on CO₂ level. There may be vegetation that may be better, and there may be unintended consequences. This also needs a sustainable water source, that may not be available.

Re Item b, the leaf growth may be compromised as noted here:

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-forests-carbon-uptake-compromised-climate.html

Re Item c, The items observed may already include the effects of higher humidity, and without it, things could be a lot worse. China was planning on 'cloud seeding', but I haven't heard the results of their efforts. The US tried cloud seeding a couple of decades back with desasterous results. With the increase in moisture in the clouds, there could be some interesting results.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Tmoose]

'something is afoot'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhmeroR20lc

 

[dik]

I'm a big fan of Buffy... first saw her in a little 'hole in the wall' in Toronto in the late 60s... She sung 'Universal Soldier'; I still find it haunting.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

Is this the sort of thing you are talking about, edmondx?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/green-group-influencing-biden-admin-deep-ties-chinese-government