It is well known that decreasing the carbon content decreases the transition temperature in ferrite-pearlite steels. This trend is less prevalent in ultrahigh-strength steels if strength is maintained at a constant level by tempering. The effect of carbon content on the fracture toughness transition curves for alloy steels containing 0.28, 0.35, and 0.41% C, with strength maintained at 1175 MPa (170 ksi), is illustrated in Fig. 47. There is little effect in the transition temperature range; however, there is a substantial effect in the upper-shelf region, where microvoid coalescence (ductile rupture) is the fracture mode.
Unfortunatey figure 47 could not be copied and pasted here.
The above extract is relevant if you are operating warmer than -25F where the upper shelf region applies.
Following is a listing for tempered 4130 steel:
UTS YS
C F MPa psi MPa psi El RA HB
205 400 1627 236 1462 212 10 41 467
315 600 1496 217 1379 200 11 43 435
425 800 1282 186 1193 173 13 49 380
540 1000 1034 150 910 132 17 57 315
650 1200 814 118 703 102 22 64 245
As you can see, the 800F temper will provide the strength level mentioned in the above discussion and therefore will have the upper shelf fracture toughness characteristics mentioned and because it has the lower corbon content discussed will be the toughest of this variety of ultra-high strength alloy steels.
If you use a factor of .55 x uts for a conservative shear strength, you will have .55(185,000)(.313x.313x3.14/4)= 7,825 with no factor of safety allowed. If you have the torque applied and the radius to the pin, you know what to do.
If this is not strong enough, you could temper as low as 400F if you can tolerate the lower toughness which is not terribly much lower if you consider that one measure of toughness is the area under the stress-strain curve.