So I have a medium-voltage AFD fed from an ungrounded delta supply. Is there a zero sequence current path from drive to motor that would result in significant GF current for a GF in the motor, even with an ungrounded supply?
If the output of the AFD is a separately derived source then the delta supply would be an irrelevant red herring. If the AFD can produce zero sequence current it will produce zero sequence current and feed the fault.
You need to consider the high frequency paths, not just the low frequency paths. Although there may be a very high impedance to ground at 50/60Hz, there may be a very low impedance to earth at 20KHz due to capacitances in cables, transformers filters etc. This can result in GF currents (High Frequency only)
Best regards,