Per "Pump Handbook",
The critical speed of a drive shaft is determined by the deflection, or "sag," of the shaft in a horizontal position under its own weight. The less the sag, the higher the critical speed. ... Knowing the natural deflection of the shaft, it is possible to calculate the first critical speed from the equation:
Ncrit = 187.7 * ( 1/ deflection)^.5
It isn't clear if this 'sag' should take into account loads imposed on the shaft other than the weight. Looking through other literature left this question open. Machinery handbook for example, discusses load and seems to imply weight only, but is equally unclear.
Knowing the vibration is set up because of the mass revolving around the centerline of the shaft, I might think it is only the mass itself that is important, but deflection of the shaft is also a function of imposed loads due to gearing, belt tension, or other loads perpendicular to the shaft axis. Both weight and imposed loads are of course forces and equally capable of deflecting the shaft, so it is unclear to me what loads should be considered for critical speed.