This is one way to do it. The volume of flue gases in relation to the volume of natural gas burnt depends on excess air, the natural gas composition, and the combustion characteristics. Assume, as an example, this ratio is 13:1.
Now [Θ] ppm NOx on flue gases would be 13[×][Θ] ppm on natural gas, e.g. 13 [Θ] cf/106 cf natural gas.
Convert 13 [Θ] cf NOx into lb, using a molecular weight, and 106 cf natural gas into Btu using its net calorific value.
It is assumed stack-emited NOx is about 90% NO and 10% NO2.