Can hurricanes be avoided? 9

The Coriolis force does not allow the wind to be directed to the centre of a low-pressure zone, but instead the air is swirled around the low.
The Coriolis force, however, is low at the equator. Therefore, the regions between 10 - 35° latitude are particularly endangered by storms because here the water temperature as well as the Coriolis force are sufficient to promote the hurricane formation.

“In an article in the September 27th, 2004 issue of Scientific American, Ross N. Hoffman of AER suggests that an array of earth-orbiting solar power stations could eventually be used to supply sufficient energy for the disruption of hurricanes. By heating an area of ocean, scientists in the future may be theoretically able to "steer" a hurricane off its projected path if it threatens population centers. Hoffman concedes though that the amount of energy needed to achieve such an objective would be substantial.
Since hurricanes draw their power from evaporating sea water, cutting off the supply of warm water available to them could reduce their strength.

Operating on this premise, Hoffman suggests another tactic involving the application of "a thin film of a biodegradable oil" to slow the evaporation that serves as the fuel for a hurricane. A great deal more research is needed to determine where such a strategy is feasible especially with a large hurricane that may cover hundreds of square miles of ocean surface.”


Luis

 

[zeitghost]

There used to be a thing called the Luxembourg effect caused by the high power output of the Luxembourg medium wave transmitter.

It caused localised heating of the ionosphere apparently.

Don't know if it affected the weather in any way though...

 

[rmw]

One of the recent objections that the Governess of Louisiana expressed about locating LNG offloading stations offshore from the coast of Louisiana was that the regasification process that utilized Gulf of Mexico waters would cool the waters down too much.

Now, I have to wonder what effect these supposedly "cooler" waters might have had on these powerful storms as they tracked over this zone of less available energy due to the LNG "cooled" waters?

The effect of reducing the storms fury could be seen as the storms approached the LA/Miss shore line and the water depth required for maintaining such a strong storm got shallow very quickly.

Realistically, as an engineer I certainly realize that the cooling effect of LNG regasification that the Governor objects to amounts to a drop in the bucket-fractions of a degree, but, couldn't we use all the help we could get?

Look at Wilma in the lower gulf vs the cooler gulf north and east of Yucatan.

rmw

 

[IRstuff]

Cloud seeding has been concluded to be a total bust. Whatever effect it might have had is deemed to be miniscule at best.

As for explosives, most of what I've read says that short of a multimegaton nuclear device, the amount of energy available in a hurricane is so large that anything else is like dousing a forest fire with an eyedropper.

According to NOAA, a Category 1 hurricane consumes about 10^17 J/day:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html

1 megaton device would release about 4*10^15 J. So something like a 100 megaton device might be enough to do the job.

AND, it's unclear whether this would actually hurt the hurricane or help it. After all, the hurricane is hungry for heat and a thermonuclear device does exactly that. Although, one might argue that the mild nuclear winter that ensues might keep hurricanes from happening for years to come.

Hah! so maybe that's also the solution to global warming. We let off a few 100 megaton devices and we're good to go on global warming for several decades ;-)




TTFN

 

[MikeHalloran]

The total energy involved in a hurricane is, well, big. But it's spread out, too.

Andrew cut a path of severe destruction through SoFla that was about 20 miles wide. The eyewall missed my house by 20 miles. The house lost maybe five shingle tabs.

Wilma cut a path of somewhat less severe destruction through SoFla that was about 100 miles wide. The eyewall missed my house by a few miles. The entire south face of the roof was denuded of shingles. (We are okay, but wondering what to do about the mildew.)

The worst part took about six hours to pass by/over, and it was traveling at a pretty good clip. I doubt that even a thermonuclear explosion could be big enough to make a difference to a hurricane. Not to mention the collaterial damage....



Mike Halloran
Pembroke Pines, FL, USA

 

[zeitghost]

I suspect that even the Tsar Bomb (60Mt, exploded 44 years ago) is small beer compared to the average hurricane...

 

[RDK]

Hurricanes can be forecasted several days in advance.

Most engineers should have developed an evolutionary strategy for avoiding the consequences of a hurricane by employing a survival strategy known as “running away”


Rick Kitson MBA P.Eng

Construction Project Management
From conception to completion

http://www.kitsonengineering.com

 

[MikeHalloran]

Well Rick, I agree that the best place to ride out a hurricane is ... Idaho. But hurricanes aside, the weather here in SoFla is mostly very nice, and the business climate is also favorable.

Running away is not a totally satisfactory strategy, because:

- Most of the time, the hurricane doesn't come close enough to any arbitrarily selected point in "The Cone Of Death" to cause any damage. If you take off, say, five days to avoid every hurricane that threatens, you won't have a job for long.

- If you wait until you're sure the track overlays your position, you won't make it to Idaho anyway; you'll be stuck in the traffic that's already trying to leave.

[ For family reasons, we were going South in Florida as Andrew approached, and were able to average ~90mph on the deserted Southbound lanes. As opposed to the Northbound lanes, bumper to bumper at 5mph for the length of the state. It's a big state; it usually takes >5 hours to leave SoFla when traffic is light. ]

Second best place to ride out a hurricane is in an armored house on high ground. Which we did.

A fortune awaits someone who can manufacture hurricane resistant roof coverings.



Mike Halloran
Pembroke Pines, FL, USA

 

[IRstuff]

A hurricane is still a chaotic event. Neither actual path nor actual strength can be accurately predicted beyond a single day. Katrina is a case in point. It both gathered additional strength and changed direction less than 24 hrs from landfall.

Additionally, given where most hurricanes start, there is no way to predict whether it will actually end up anywhere. So trying to pre-empt a hurricane will result in large expenditures for a completely unknown result. Moreover, any attempt to steer a hurricane may bring it smashing against a less developed country that'll bound to kill many innocents.

Would you neso sure about what you're proposing that you'll be willing to explain what happened to any survivors?

TTFN

 

[epoisses]

Stopping hurricanes may be a long shot, even though the biodegradable oil film suggested in the original post might be workable. But if the Japanese can build earthquake-proof buildings, I'm sure the Americans can design hurricane-proof buildings, it even appears to be less complicated. Running away should not be an integral part of any emergency plan, after all we're in the 21st century and we're sending people to Mars...

 

[zeitghost]

<we're sending people to Mars>

Really?

 

[IRstuff]

Whether one can or cannot "do" it is irrelevant.

What is the cost of designing a structure that can survive a 20 ft wave surge and 150 mpg winds? How many people can afford to live in a structure like that?

And, I think that you are mistaken about "earthquake-proof." A building can only withstand what it was designed to, which is usually a magnitude 8-ish earthquake. That means that a magnitude 9 earthquake will most likely squash that sort of building. There is no such thing as an "earthquake-proof" building.

TTFN

 

[epoisses]

zeitghost, "we're sending" as in near future, the definition of near is an exercise for the reader

IRstuff, "earthquake-proof" as in the non-engineering version (sorry) of "designed for the strongest earthquake the building will be subject to within its typical lifetime with 99.99% probability" (that percentage can be renegociated by the diligent reader).

BTW, I was not planning to make the buildings 20 ft wave surge proof, I thought a dike would be more cost effective.

 

[IRstuff]

And we already proved that the earthquake code doesn't actually do that. You can't design for something that you haven't modeled. The Loma Prieta quake demonstrates without a doubt that the seismic codes were insufficient for dealing with a measly magnitude 7.1 quake located 60 miles away.

TTFN

 

[jmw]

I must say I was intrigued to watch TV footage of the evacuation and to note that with virtually all the interstate traffic going the one way and virtually stationary while the other carriageway was almost completely empty.
Have the emergency services/state authorities etc never heard of "tidal flow"?
This is where, when the peak traffic flow is predominantly in one direction (e.g. during morning rush hour and which then reverses at evening rush hour) certain "tidal flow lanes" have the traffic flow reversed to accomodate the traffice flow.

If ever there was a time to do this it was during these emergencies.

JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[0707]

Why are the Japanese the most prepared people to fight against earthquakes?
Because they have learnt to live with the situation, they have studied building behaviours, because they have studied land movements, because thy have invested in earthquakes forecast. With these improvements they drastically reduced people died rates during the strongest earthquakes.
I am sure that the Americans soon or later will implement the same attitude to fight against Hurricanes.
Luis

 

[JayMaechtlen]

I think that partway through the evacuation, all lanes were opened for outward flow of traffic.
Amazing that it took so long, but hindsight is usually clearer...

How about directable shades or reflectors in orbit or at (in?) one of the L3 points?
Shut off (shade over) a hurricane, would it die down pretty quickly?
Oh- they don't stop at night, do they? Well, over several days, might that make a difference, or might that be a way to steer the storm?
Hmmm...


Jay Maechtlen

http://home.covad.net/~jmaechtlen/