BEV adoption rates and factors that enhance or detract 1

[Brian Malone]

The thread asking about layoffs in the automotive industry has taken a wide swing away from the OP's question but the data provided by many of the posts is intriguing and interesting. Certainly, some of the data is statistical interpretation and that can sway the conversation - what's the saying about statistics? Stats are like bikinis: What is shown can be very interesting - but what is hidden is crucial . . .

SwinnyGG, GregLocock, Littleinch, lucky-guesser have all put forth compelling data and analysis that show the original data posted by dik was not a complete story. It looks like Norway has some level of BEV adoption but it is not a run away overtaking of their auto market by BEVs.

China is leading the world in BEV adaoption, China also leads the world in electricity production. Could their BEV adoption rate be driven by the population is using what works best for the resource available (though 5/8 of China's electricity is from coal, they are working on other sources). Is it government incentives? Is it government mandates? Norway has relatively small population and derives 6/7 of its electricity from hydro power. Does this affect national adoption?

List of countries by electricity production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think the US market is definitely affected by charger availability and vehicle price. Until a BEV does not cost a premium price and charging is not a possible headache for those who cannot afford to have their charger or do not have access to a location for a charger, BEVs are going to be only for a smaller segment of the population that can afford the vehicle and its charging. These are not the 'joe six packs'.

The links posted by GregLocock seemed to be a good place to continue the BEV discussion:

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Car Sales by Country | Global Car Sales Data | 1. China 2. US

Top 25 countries for car sales per year. This list of car sales by country includes global rank, number of units sold, and top car brands within each country listed.

www.factorywarrantylist.com

There many other good links in the 'Layoffs post - I just don't know how to bring them over enmasse . . .

 

[GregLocock]

BEV in Norway was heavily incentivised by the government.

The Norwegian EV incentives:​

• No purchase/import tax on EVs (1990-2022). From 2023 some purchase tax based on the cars’ weight on all new EVs.
• Exemption from 25% VAT on purchase (2001-2022). From 2023, Norway will implement a 25% VAT on the purchase price from 500 000 Norwegian Kroner and over
• No annual road tax (1996-2021). Reduced tax from 2021. Full tax from 2022.
• No charges on toll roads (1997- 2017).
• No charges on ferries (2009- 2017).
• Maximum 50% of the total amount on ferry fares for electric vehicles (2018)
• Maximum 50% of the total amount on toll roads (2018-2022). From 2023 70%
• Free municipal parking (1999- 2017)
• Access to bus lanes (2005-). New rules allow local authorities to limit the access to only include EVs that carry one or more passengers (2016-)
• 25% reduced company car tax (2000-2008). 50% reduced company car tax (2009-2017). Company car tax reduction reduced to 40% (2018-2021) and 20 percent from 2022.
• Exemption from 25% VAT on leasing (2015-)
• The Norwegian Parliament decided on a national goal that all new cars sold by 2025 should be zero-emission (electric or hydrogen) (2017).
• «Charging right» for people living in apartment buildings was established (2017-)
• Public procurement: From 2022 cars needs to be ZEV. From 2025 the same applies to city buses

 

[Brian Malone]

The Norwegian government has heavily incentivized EV sales and apparently their population supports the legislation. All the tax breaks, and concessions toward EVs mean another segment of the population is footing the bill for services used by all. This is one method to drive product adoption. Fortunately, Norway has extensive hydropower capacity for electricity.

 

[SWComposites]

“Purely market driven” LOL. Right. And I have a bridge for sale cheap. There is massive government influence.

 

[LittleInch]

The Norwegian government has heavily incentivized EV sales and apparently their population supports the legislation. All the tax breaks, and concessions toward EVs mean another segment of the population is footing the bill for services used by all. This is one method to drive product adoption. Fortunately, Norway has extensive hydropower capacity for electricity.

And absolutely shed loads of Gas and Oil to sell at now higher prices to the rest of Europe....

 

[CWB1]

Stateside ~1/3 of new vehicles are leased.

The irony of Americans griping about vehicle costs is that we dont want cheap vehicles. When folks here (including myself) refer to an economy car, econobox, etc they're generally referring to a $25k+ mid-sized sedan with a 2L+, 250hp+ engine. For years OEMs imported the crappy economy cars popular in the European and Asian markets, and sales were horrible despite $12-15k prices bc most would rather buy a used mid-sized than a new economy car. Over the past 2-3 years most OEMs have abandoned that segment stateside. I probably would've missed the news entirely if a coworker wasnt scrambling to order (bc nobody stocks those POS here) a final year Chevy Sonic, IIRC loaded it was $14k in '21(?).

 

[3DDave]

What should drive electric vehicle sales is general lack of having to go to filling stations; general immunity to the Russian Roulette of gasoline prices. For a nation, that would also mean energy independence. If there is no need to import oil for making fuel, there are no exports of gasoline or US military power to protect those foreign sources.

The US, in particular, cannot simply pump it's way to independence as the oil in the US is far less suitable for fuel production than the imported stuff is. That's the main exchange - the US exports crappy oil and imports the good stuff. It literally doesn't matter how much drilling the US does, it's the wrong combination of hydrocarbons and contaminants to make fuel from. When the oil companies say "energy independence" it's misleading. What they mean is, screw the future of the country, let's deplete what is available now for big profits and mansions for the owners and leave the US at the mercy of other oil producers in the future.

What makes electric vehicles less palatable are that they are a bunch of things the ICE based vehicles take for granted. For example, an ICE vehicle doesn't need to carry all the oxygen required to complete the chemical reaction, but the similar process in batteries/cells does, which makes the BEV a literal ton heavier. The ICE has excess heat production and there are a lot of placed in the US where a lot of heat is required to keep occupants warm and windshields clear of ice.

BEVs have to include a competing budget for that; more heat = less range and the colder the battery, the less the range, so it needs to have a budget for the budget. Some are trying to use heat-pumps, but all that an ICE vehicle requires is a crappy heat-exchanger that they have to have to operate anyway, so either rejecting heat to the atmosphere outside or the atmosphere inside; makes no difference. Yes, the electric motor and the battery both generate heat, but not nearly enough for keeping the battery in usable condition in sub-freezing weather. If the BEV battery gets too cold? Too bad. Unlike an ICE vehicle there's no jump starting to make up for a weak battery.

BEVs being heavier there is more damage done to the tires; so those costs go up.

However BEVs can have acceleration performance that only top end super cars used to reach; with that electric motor and battery the CG is lower on a BEV for what should be far better handling. But does the typical consumer really need or can properly handle a 0-60 mph in 3 seconds performance car? Many have trouble with 0-60 mph in 12 seconds.

Of course, because the battery includes the oxidizer, there is a range limit. I can run entirely out of gas, walk a few miles to a filling station and probably get even a gallon of fuel to make it to the filling station with the vehicle and be on my way faster than I can get a tow truck to haul a dead BEV to a charger and get that up to the same range.

In addition, as the BEV ages, the capacity of the battery drops. In an ICE? As long as it is in good repair with normal oil changes, it will be getting the same mpg at 20 years as it did when new. The BEV at 20 years? Maybe half. Though my experience with batteries is the BEV will be essentially dead by 10 years and need a replacement battery pack - probably 2/3 or more of the used vehicle price, if a replacement is even available.

It's weird that those who want to be an energy independent nation don't push hard for BEVs.

 

[LittleInch]

The messy compromise of course is the PHEV which I'm beginning to wonder if this will start to be pushed as an acceptable alternative if they manage to make the batteries big enough to cope with "normal" city type driving, but have the engine for longer runs or to get you home.

It seems battery size is creeping up slowly and if they get to about 20kWh then you've prob got 60 miles + which day to day is going to get you there are back on your commute, especially if you can charge up at work and even at home you don't need an extra charger, just run an extension lead out or similar and charge at 3kW.

As the market for pure EV's starts inevitably to stutter as it looks like doing at the moment, then more pressure will be applied for this messy compromise and for PHEVs, which can be charged most of the time at home or in slow public chargers, but a lot of the other concerns and issues reduce considerably.

Of course it still doesn't help the US with its inbuilt desire for large vehicles, pick up trucks etc. The "crappy economy cars" are indeed very popular in Europe, but then we don't have the huge distances and massive highways and petrol (gas) has historically been taxed at much higher rates (more than double the pump price) hence the desire for much better fuel economy.

 

[dik]

BEV in Norway was heavily incentivised by the government.

...and for reason.

 

[CWB1]

The nagging question in my mind is - why are the OEMs still betting so heavily on EVs? Sales are slow, but there's been enough big reductions in ICE development personnel and facilities over the past few months to suggest they're focused on EVs. Strongly positioned and opinionated execs have pushed backwards agendas in the past, but I've worked with enough first-class marketing folks to wonder if EVs arent coming faster than most think, legislated or otherwise.

 

[3DDave]

Often the bet is because if there is a major shift and they are not with it they will be wiped out.

 

[GregLocock]

"why are the OEMs still betting so heavily on EVs?" Sunk cost fallacy and a reluctance to admit their wisdom was limited. The boards drunk the Net Zero Kool Aid, especially VW and Ford, and deemed in the face of raised eyebrows of the mere minions that BEVs were the future. Having decimated or eliminated their IC development departments, going back is going to take a lot of investment.

 

[Brian Malone]

With the eventual success of Tesla cornering the nascent BEV market and having its heady stock valuation, and some governments indicating or enacting legislations of restricted ICE sales, the BODs and execs at all automakers have had fogged vision. Even in the best of times they have trouble accurately predicting the market trends/wants.

 

[SWComposites]

Everything they do is with the intent to boost the short term stock price. There is NO long term vision.

 

[GregLocock]

Well yes and no. Many things take half a decade to get into production even after they have been officially blessed. So to some extent they do have to crystal ball a fair amount. But yes the worst (possibly) thing that ever happened to US OEMs is quarterly reports to Wall St.

 

[CWB1]

At least stateside, execs tend to be short-sighted bc most publicly traded companies have mandatory retirement ages ~60-65 for execs (not mid-managers or employees). They often only have 5-10 years before forced out, CEOs often hit the limit within 3-5 of getting the top seat.

Adapting to market changes makes sense, so obviously some change in personnel and facilities makes sense as some customers buy EVs rather than ICE. It just seems like the OEMs are ahead of market demand now and pausing cuts to ICE would make sense. The fact that ICE cuts are continuing makes me wonder if I'm not mistaken and they're not truly ahead of the market.

 

[IRstuff]

The main issue, given some experience viewed second-hand, is the lack of chargers for non-Tesla cars. Also, it appears there are "gangs" that hog chargers for their "friends" and not allow others to charge until all their friends are done charging.

 

[3DDave]

I think some of those gangs have EPA bypass software to allow them to "roll coal" to pwn the EV owners.

 

[GregLocock]

Some journo in the UK observed that the shortage of public chargers is exacerbated by the drivers who want to charge to 100% which takes much longer than 90%.

 

[LittleInch]

That was one of my points. Because the length of time you need on the charge is probably at least 25 minutes to get even 50% charge, nearly all the chargers are self policed/ operated and there isn't anyone to say you've had your 25 minutes, now move on.

There were reports here that rationing of time was being done in some motorway services in the summer but if the owner has vanished to get some lunch or similar, how do you move a car which has overstayed its time??

If there's going to be govt money for anything it really should focus on getting a comprehensive charging network set up so that there are enough and then you can limit the time or charging percent whilst still having enough places.

 

[GregLocock]

I believe Tesla fines you if you overstay. I doubt it would be hard to include dynamic pricing for chargers, based on the number of vehicles waiting, and your SOC.