You need to also check with the ITA concerning trends this year.
1. There is a sponge shortage (all of the stockpiles in FSU are gone).
2. There have been multiple price increases this year totaling over 50% on many product forms.
3. I know on tubular products (CP grades) right now mills are quoting deliveries in Aug. (36-40 weeks).
4. The aircraft build rates are going to be higher than in many years (alloy products).
Just like with Carbon Steel, Stainless and a few others, in the last 18 months prices went from the lowest levels in modern history to some of the highest. We saw it coming, but you can't keep it from happening. What drove it:
1. Increased world wide demand. For toolong we have only considered the G7 when we were forcasting.
2. Reduced capacity. There was no incentive to install primary extraction capacity and much processing capacity has been idled.
3. No inventories. Everyone in the supply chain from the mines to the finish mill have reduced their inventory levels. This means that any slight increase in demand causes imediate shortages. No one wanted to take the risk of building inventories even though they were forcasting increased demand.
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Corrosion never sleeps, but it can be managed.
