From the hardenability curves (Rockwell C versus distance from quenched end) that I have on hand, the 4140 alloy should hit about 47 HRc at the core (center) of your 13mm shaft diameters (0.5") with a water quench. For the 15 to 17 mm (0.6-0.67") shaft diameters, it will be closer to 42 HRc.
Keep in mind that 4340 alloy steel provides excellent toughness and increased fatigue strength in addition to increased hardenability in comparison to 4140 alloy steel. These also need to be factored into your material substitution.