What are the odds?
What are the odds?
(OP)
There is a 50 percent probability that the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season will have above-normal activity, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) said in its outlook," Reuters reports.
1. Do we mix percentages with probabilities? It sounds clunky to me.
2. What is the sentence trying to say, and what does it say?
Is "normal" the mean, median (or any of those other precise statistical words)?
The sentence sounds like a Yogi-ism. Why not just say, "We flipped a coin?"
1. Do we mix percentages with probabilities? It sounds clunky to me.
2. What is the sentence trying to say, and what does it say?
Is "normal" the mean, median (or any of those other precise statistical words)?
The sentence sounds like a Yogi-ism. Why not just say, "We flipped a coin?"





RE: What are the odds?
- there will be a 50% chance of rain today. Does this mean that at any given time I have a 50% chance that it will rain today OR 50% of the TV viewing area will receive rain?
RE: What are the odds?
As it stands this statement is telling us nothing. It should be quantified by saying, perhaps, that in recent years hurricane activity has been above or below average or even on average.
JMW
www.viscoanalyser.com
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RE: What are the odds?
It is not necessarily true that "50% is below average." With specific distributions, such as a normal distribution, 50% is below average. Take the series "1, 1, 1, 2." 75% of those numbers are below average.
I suppose that the intelligence of drivers may be normally distributed, but I swear that about 75% of drivers have below average intelligence.
Haf
RE: What are the odds?
Nice comments on the distributions!
Best regards,
Matthew Ian Loew
"I don't grow up. In me is the small child of my early days" -- M.C. Escher
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
RE: What are the odds?
RE: What are the odds?
Jesus is THE life,
Leonard
RE: What are the odds?
"I continue to be amazed at how MUCH the meterologists (sp?) can predict."
Do you mean, how many of their predictions they get right?
Regards
pennpoint
RE: What are the odds?
I take that to mean they don't know if it will rain or not.
In SE Michigan, they predict temperatures quite well, but fail at predicting precipitation.
jimbo
Buy a dictionary, keep it nearby and USE it. Webster's New World Dictionary of American English is recommended, and Webster's Collegiate Dictionary.
RE: What are the odds?
RE: What are the odds?
From metengr: "Just like weather forecasting;
- there will be a 50% chance of rain today. Does this mean that at any given time I have a 50% chance that it will rain today OR 50% of the TV viewing area will receive rain?"
In addition to the possible meanings that metengr raises (Just like weather forecasting;- there will be a 50% chance of rain today. Does this mean that at any given time I have a 50% chance that it will rain today OR 50% of the TV viewing area will receive rain?), I would add: Or does that mean that it will rain 50% of the time in the TV viewing area?
RE: What are the odds?
It says, in part:
"A POP of 40% means that the forecasters have calculated that in a 100 similar weather situations, rain has fallen 40 times in the forecast area. POP is for any point in your forecast area, not the whole area. So, for instance, a POP of 90% for rain means that 9 times out of 10 when this weather situation is predicted, you ought to get rain somewhere in the forecast area, e.g., at your home, playground or at the airport. "
So essentially, for any "probability of precipitation" greater than 0%, if one single drop of rain falls in an area of a hundred square miles or so, the forecast was correct. The only way the forecast could be wrong is if there's a 100% chance forecast and it fails to rain even one single drop in the forecast area, or if there's a 0% chance and it rains that one single drop somewhere.
Pretty tough standards to live up to. Do you suppose they carry errors and omissions insurance?
RE: What are the odds?
Ray Reynolds
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
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RE: What are the odds?
And usually a "driving rain" means I shouldn't be driving. Visibility nil.
RE: What are the odds?
Ray Reynolds
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?
RE: What are the odds?
RE: What are the odds?
The odds of rain are largely dependant on whether or not the top on the convertible is up or down.
I would add:
Or whether you have just washed your car.
RE: What are the odds?
The original statement is correct --- however, it says nothing.
In a normal distribution of events, the average, or mean, is located at the midpoint of the range of possible events. Any random outcome selected has a 50% probability of being above the average --- it also has a 50% probability of being below the average.
Rich Geoffroy
Polymer Services Group
POLYSERV@aol.com
RE: What are the odds?
They apparently are trying to say that the activity will be above average. They should have just said so. Of course, when someone asks "how much worse than average?" they should be able to answer:
"don't know" (more probably "We need to await the results of further evaluation before we can answer that in detail.")
"10% higher probability" (more probably " marginal/somewhat/significantly/don't buy a trailer home)
JMW
www.viscoanalyser.com
Eng-Tips: Pro bono publico, by engineers, for engineers.
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
RE: What are the odds?
Therefore, it says that their models are split on whether there will be higher activity, wherease in other years the models might vote for 25% probability of above-average activity.
TTFN
RE: What are the odds?
Sorry to answer so late. Let me repharase my earlier comment. I am amazed that the forcasters do as good as they do. Not that they do that good.
Jesus is THE life,
Leonard
RE: What are the odds?
Bung
Life is non-linear...
RE: What are the odds?
My grandpa used to tell me that there are only two professions where you can say what you want and not get caught in a backlash if proven wrong, meteorology and politics. So, why do we only trash the meteorologists? I guess politicians should have their own thread eh?
"When in Rome, do as the Romans do.....keep one hand on your wallet"
RE: What are the odds?
Whereas typical accuracy of weather forecasting is only about 60%.
In other words, they would be better of not using all the technology and ENORMOUS expense - just say it will be the same as it is today !!
RE: What are the odds?
Does MadMango live in Massachusetts?