Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
(OP)
Where is Engineering going in the next 5 years?
The single most important issue that will dominate engineering in the next couple of years is the unavoidable depletion of the world's oil supplies. Hopefully, engineers everywhere will rise to the challenge by helping with the development of alternative sources of energy.
Of course, engineers can help, but we also need to radically rethink our way of life. Unless, we change our wasteful ways, we risk decades of resource wars.
What do you think of this?
For more information visit:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
The single most important issue that will dominate engineering in the next couple of years is the unavoidable depletion of the world's oil supplies. Hopefully, engineers everywhere will rise to the challenge by helping with the development of alternative sources of energy.
Of course, engineers can help, but we also need to radically rethink our way of life. Unless, we change our wasteful ways, we risk decades of resource wars.
What do you think of this?
For more information visit:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/





RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
http://www.enviromission.com.au/index1.htm
Wind farms are also "growing" in numerous locations around the world and providing an alternative whilst there is some debate about efficiency of these farms, most of the debate in Australia has more to do with the visual impact.
The real problem for our energy resources is the internal combustion engine. Whilst many engineers are looking at improving the road networks to improve efficiency of travel. (by reduction of grades, stop start driving, surface frictions, etc) there does not appear (in the general press) to be much effort placed on getting rid of the internal combustion engine. We have the hybrid car (still needs the ICE) and we have had battery only cars (extremely poor performance). If there are other options out there I have not come across them yet.
The world is looking for alternative fuels that can be provided efficiently and cheaply, but to date nothing appears to be suitable for the ICE in terms of durability. Sarich has tried improving the ICE to be more efficient with his orbital engine and has had success with small engines for motorbikes and marine applications, but we still don't have a useful car. Still it is only about improving efficiency, not replacing the ICE with real and improved technology.
Remember mankind has inherited the earth and then set about destroying it with a series of short term views. We don't need short term alternatives we need long term technology changes.
Regards
sc
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Twaddle
If it dominated engineering then more than 50% of each engineer's time for the next two years would be spent on that useless goal.
Yes, we are using oil up. We are also discovering more oil. It is a moot point whether we are discovering more than we are using.
We are developing alternatives. The turkey guts process looks pretty good.
We are making ICEs vastly more efficient. All that has to happen is for the price of oil to rise and we will start using 30-36% efficient engines as used in the Prius, rather than the more typical 25%.
The reason that we are not chasing efficiency in vehicles is that oil is as cheap as, if not cheaper than, it has ever been since World War 1, in real terms.
The problems are political and social. We have the technology.
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
"We are developing alternatives. The turkey guts process looks pretty good."
I'll bite. What is the turkey guts process?
Blacksmith
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
The "turkey guts process" is slang for Thermal depolymerization, a process that turns waste (e.g. including plastics, tires, turkey guts,and agricultural waste) into oil.
Although Thermal depolymerization, has some strong qualities (i.e. turns waste into oil), it is not a solution to oil depletion. Simply, because "waste" is a product of high grade oil. For example plastics, and diesel in tractors used for agriculture. The "turkey guts process" may give us a couple years, but it will not prevent the crisis.
Furthermore, although we are discovering more oil, the oil that we are discovering is getting more and more expensive to extract (i.e. more inacessible). So the crisis will not occur when we deplete oil reserves, but when it no longer will be cost effective to "mine" oil.
Yes, we can make the internal combustion engine more efficient, but that will only have a minimal impact as oil costs skyrocket.
Greg wrote, "We have the technology."
No, we do not have the technology. Once we realize this, we can tackle the problem.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
josephv wrote:
The "turkey guts process" is slang for Thermal depolymerization, a process that turns waste (e.g. including plastics, tires, turkey guts,and agricultural waste) into oil.
There is a good article on this in the May 2003 issue of Discover Magazine. I think josephv is missing a point. The materials listed above are not the only source that can be used to produce oil. The process turns carbohydrates into hydrocarbons. In the future, municipal waste treatement plants will not "dispose" of sewage, but convert it to oil. There is not shortage of raw material for this process.
We do have the technology. In the past technological innovation because a practical alternative has presented itself. It is not very practical to scrap existing infrastructure for an equally usefull system. Major technical revolution occurs several decades after initial technology emerges. The car took about 20 or 30 years to take off. The computer took at least 30 reach revolutionary status.
It's never physics that innovates, its engineering. In this case a good portion of the engineering is out the way. Looking at previous timelines of revolution we are no more than 15 to 20 years away from converting to this process. Right about the time that the worlds oil reserves are expected to run out.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
You have horses anyhow.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
uleam wrote:
There is a good article on this in the May 2003 issue of Discover Magazine. ... In the future, municipal waste treatment plants will not "dispose" of sewage, but convert it to oil. There is not shortage of raw material for this process.
I read the Discover Magazine article. Please note that in order to produce the advertised 4 Billions Barrels per year one would require 18,000 plants the size of the one in Missouri.
Right now, there are plans to build 1 or 2 plants per year, yet to truly slow down the crisis we would need to be building 1,000 plants per year, right now, today.
The critical point of the curve (i.e. when oil demand is greater than supply) will most likely come this decade.
We are not technologically, politically or economically prepared.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
I recall great concern in the 1970s that natural gas reserves were desperately low and that at then-current usage rates, the reserves would be gone by the early 1990s. Quite stringent restrictions on usage were proposed to preserve the precious supply for the most important uses. Interestingly, prices increased and "magically" more resources were found and developed. Gas usage increased yet reserves in the 1990s were significantly greater than during the period of near panic in the 1970s.
The recent rapid deployment of natural gas fueled high efficiency gas turbines and combined cycle units for electric power generation seem to be putting some stress on available gas resources, but if history provides any guidance, rising prices will probably justify the discovery and development of more resources.
Where politics, natural resources, and the environment are involved, it is wise to consider when "concern" for the environment is really more a tool than a cause for some of the key players to provide political leverage. Quite often it seems that well-intentioned but semi-informed people are readily drawn in and used for political and public relations advantage.
The politically-correct desire to do away with Otto-cycle and Diesel-cycle internal combustion engines is admittedly one of my pet peeves. In the size range and applications where they make sense, they are really quite excellent machines particularly in their cleaner forms that have been developed in recent years. Their efficiency, emissions, and burden on all resources (when all aspects are considered including their materials, manufacture, recycling, etc.) actually compare favorably to alternatives.
New and alternative machines and systems should and will be developed. These should and will be deployed when as as they make practical sense. Isn't that the way things have been in the past?
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
what was the deal with that imaginary natural gas crisis in the 70's? You are very right though in that in was a markey driven crisis...I am overstepping my area of expertise, but dont our refineries make a high percentage of natural gas from oil then store it in depleted goelogical formations for peak high cost usage?
I agree with your point of trouble when mixing politics, the environment, and natural resources..It's all too common an occurance on the minds of all the environmentally minded SUV drivers out there. I drive a redicously high power sports car and not an SUV so I do my part in saving the environment...lol
As I recall, we were supposed to be out of oil by the end of the 90's as my brainwashed teachers told me in grade skool. I agree its a non-renewable resource and will eventually go the way of the typewriter, but it's what we have to work with right now. I agree with GregLocock that we do have the the technology in place to deal with oils gradual depletion and the ICE will be here for some time. I argue with people all the time about developing resources where ever they are, but the environazis seem to be in control at the delight of oil companies that artifically inflate costs based on their victories. Technology cannot fix this, but common sense could...something that most environmentalists seem to be lacking.
My prediction on oil is that it will be around for quite some time, my rational for this is the fact that I have not seen any of the top 5 oil producers diversify to other business plans like Vivindi leaving the worn out utility market and going to the entertainment industry instead.
I would have to disagree with josephv with the idea that oil will be the basis for future conflict. A majority of the words population is third world with little or no use nor benefit from oil and by the time they do develop the need, the industrialized nations will have the oil gone. Rather, water will be the stuff wars are waged over. We see it already although most of the combatents in the war die rather quickly without too much ado from the non third world in general.
The middle east is ripe with conflict over water with Isreal threatning war over water diversions Jordan is making. Isreal had anounced plans to bomb a water pumping station making agreed upon withdrawals which is just unbelievable in my mind.
We as engineers will have our hands full there is no doubt. Espically since fewer and fewer people are becoming engineers just who will we pass our knowledge on to.
this is a pretty good discussion though.....and these are just my rambling thoughts....
BobPE
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Too bad we can't edit our posts.
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
However, there are some common misconceptions that I would like to dispel.
1) My prediction on oil is that it will be around for quite some time, my rational for this is the fact that I have not seen any of the top 5 oil producers diversify to other business plans (BobPE)
This is not true. BP (British Petroleum) now stands for "Beyond Petroleum". Shell is investing 5 billion into Solar and Wind Energy.
2) ... we do have the technology in place to deal with oils gradual depletion ... (BobPE)
There is no alternative fuel technology that has the Net Energy of oil. Hydrogen and Thermal Depolymerization require lots of Energy to produce, and the Net Energy obtained is relatively small. Other alternatives sources, such as wind and solar are excellent, but do not have the ease of transport or convenience that oil has.
3) "The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil." Sheikh Yamani (Saudi Arabia's former oil minister)
This is the old apples with oranges comparison, that completely shows a complete lack of understanding of history. The "Stone Age" lasted tens of thousands of years. The "oil age" will last less than 2 centuries. In fact it is incorrect to call it the "oil age"; "oil interval" would be more appropriate due to its short duration.
4) Where politics, natural resources, and the environment are involved, it is wise to consider when "concern" for the environment is really more a tool than a cause for some of the key players to provide political leverage. Quite often it seems that well intentioned but semi-informed people are readily drawn in and used for political and public relations advantage. (ccfowler)
I would not call leading petroleum geologists "semi-informed". Personally, I trust their opinion more than the opinion of some "semi-informed" economists that believe that petroleum is a infinite resource. Please see the following link for a list of engineers and scientist who warn of the coming global oil crisis.
http://www.oilcrisis.com/experts/
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
The natural gas supply situation of the 1970s wasn't imaginary, and it did not involve any great conspiracies. It was mainly the result of an overly regulated market where prices and production/delivery costs got too far separated from reality. The deregulation of the market restored some reality-based balance to the situation.
The current situation of conventional vs. alternative energy systems has significant characteristics. For the inderminable future, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy sources can function with prices high enough to remain significantly profitable yet low enough to forestall rapid development of alternative sources currently under consideration for substantial deployment. This does not imply the operation of any great conspiracies, it simply reflects the current state of resources and development of technologies.
Alternative energy sources are not free of significant burdens and impediments. When considered with a reasonable measure of skeptimism and proportion, the costs of various energy sources tend to provide useful indications of the relative resource burdens associated with their implementation and operation. For example, alternative energy sources tend to have relatively high capital costs because they tend to involve relatively low energy density sources. Thus, they tend to require relatively large amounts of materials, relatively large land areas, etc. Political considerations can bias the situation for a while through subsidies, tax credits, preferential legislation, etc., but reality must ultimately prevail. (Legislation is not likely to cause gravity to cease its pervasive functionality!)
When new systems reach the point of development where they make realistic sense, they tend to be adopted. An excellent example of this is shown in the case of the railroads of North America in the years following World War II. Coal fired steam locomotives were very quickly and universally replaced by Diesel-electric locomotives because of overwhelming practical and economic considerations.
Environmental considerations are very properly important, but reality is still reality despite politics, political correctness, or good intentions. An alternative energy system should not be deployed just because it is an alternative system. It should be deployed because it offers net benefits compared to the conventional system(s) that it may displace. An alternative energy system may be developed on the basis of good intentions, but good intentions do not assure that deployment will result in net positive benefits. This is where politics and political correctness can do real and substantial harm.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Best estimates of the recoverable reserves are in excess of 1000 billion barrels of crude oil.
Demand is about 77 million barrels per day.
This gives, /at current rate of use/, 35 years of oil.
If the price goes up demand will fall.
Currently nobody is looking for more reserves, because oil is about as cheap now as it has been since 1985, when US oil production peaked. In 1985 residual fuel oil ex refinery was 60 c per gallon. 2001 55c per gallon. Those prices are in absolute dollars, not inflation adjusted. I chose that rather unsexy product because it is apparent that no-one is interested in it, yet for little real investment it can be cracked. No sign of an oil shortage there.
All figures taken from
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html
Do you think that the DOE is a reasonable source of information?
I do agree to some extent, oil is a finite resource and it will get more expensive until replacements are found. Then people will lose interest in it and it will become an irrelevance. Practically speaking you will start building PWRs again. I hope that happens rather than coal fired power stations.
By the way your second website is connected to the first, it is not an independent source of data. It has an interesting paper
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/Petrotech090103.pdf
Figure 7 suggests that the world peak oil production is likely to occur in 2012, and that oil production (and hence consumption) will fall back to present day values in 2022. Over the following 23 years the production will fall to half the current figures.
Now, I have no idea what the price elasticity curve for petroleum is, but if you are telling me that we have 42 years in which to prepare for a halving in the supply of oil, I have no nightmares. Yes, the alternatives are more expensive. However more expensive isn't necessarily worse. Last time we had an oil crisis cars got better. We threw away carbs and got fuel injection. Now we drive around in small cars with 100 hp instead of 40. They get 35 mpg instead of 25. That's fun.
Figure 8 shows the effect of adding in some other liquid hydrocarbon sources like shales. This rolls back the 50% of present day to 2050-2060.
Finally adding in natural gas as well rolls the 50% number back to 2075.
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
is available at www.gsenet.org/library/17pop/grthenvi.php
While some of the examples and references are somewhat dated, there is still a lot of truth in the article. Energy consumption was increasing at 7%. ( I don’t know what the current growth rate is.) Simple arithmetic tells us this means a doubling of the total consumption in about 10 years. In each doubling the total consumed will be exceed the previous total consumed. If we have say 1,000 times the total previously consumed, at 7% growth the supply will last less than 10 doublings or 100 years. Two thousand times the total previously consumed will only last 11 doublings or 110 years. Four thousand times will only be good for 120 years.
We are faced with exponential growth in the consumption of a finite resource.
Yes we can find more oil. This is part of the finite quantity of oil available. Even if the earth was a sphere of oil floating around the universe, it is still a finite amount of oil.
Given exponential growth in the rate of consumption of this finite resource, we will eventually run out of oil.
There is a lot of misinformation out there. Industry claims that the reserves will last thousands of years <small print on> at present rates of consumption <small print off>. This then is used to justify low rates, no increase in energy efficiency of homes, vehicles and processes, resulting in continued exponential growth.
Oil is fat too cheap to be worth conserving. This is because short sighted politicians are responding to the demands of an equally short sighted electorate. The producing nations, also with often short sighted leaders, can produce oil at rates far below current selling prices and this increases the pressures on increased consumption of the finite resource.
To me there is no question, if the human race is to continue to develop.
We have to reduce oil consumption.
We have to find more reserves.
We have to find alternate sources of energy.
Rick Kitson MBA P.Eng
Construction Project Management
From conception to completion
www.kitsonengineering.com
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Regards
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Thank you for you post. I agree with your math, but not with the interpretation.
In your first calculation you mention that there are 35 years left of oil. But you did not mention that with these numbers, oil production will still peak this decade.
Please note that the problems will occur not the day that oil runs out, but when demand exceeds supply. This is unchartered waters.
Our economy is based on growth and is completely dependent on oil; even poor countries need oil for agriculture. Once we hit the peak, there will a world crisis caused by a bidding war for the remaining oil. Every year there will be less and less energy for transportation, heating, agriculture etc...
Regarding the charts, you also did not mention that the addition of natural gas and shale oil (although may help extend the "oil age") will not change the peak by more than a couple years.
Further, please note that replacing oil with another nonrenewable fuel (natural gas) that is also peaking is not a wise choice.
Also, note that shale oil requires lots of energy to produce. For every 3 barrels that are recovered, 2 barrels of energy were spent.
Finally, no fuel efficient cars, oil substitutes, oil discoveries will change the peak.
We will reach this peak (and world crisis) sometime between 2004 - 2008.
I could go on and on... but there is an excellent book that describes this...
http://pup.princeton.edu/chapters/s7121.html
Cheers,
Joseph
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
"Efficient use of ANY resource should always be an Engineer's priority irrespective of that resources availability or scarcity."
Yes, so long as the you use a valid definition of efficiency. It would be very efficient, from an oil use standpoint, to force all American schoolchildren to cycle to school, and all engineers to cycle to their offices.
In society's terms that is not efficient.
Basically if I burn one gallon of fuel, cost two dollars, and get to work 20 minutes earlier, so I can work 20 minutes longer, that is a net improvement in productivity for society of 78 dollars by not cycling.
Similarly, the additional social benefit of driving the fat kids to school must outweigh the (trivial) cost of fuel used.
Joseph - the crisis will not occur at the peak. Prices will start to rise, in real terms, as we approach the peak, because the cost of production will rise as the easy sources get used up.
The reason I chose the level of half present day useage as the measure of when things will get interesting is that present day technologies can already get us to a 50% reduction of oil useage AS SOON AS THEY ARE ECONOMICALLY VIABLE. They cannot become viable until the price of oil has risen. I don't know what proportion of oil and gas is used for heating and powering stationary plants, but that is plain ridiculous. Nuclear, coal and assorted green power technologies should be used instead, as a matter of priority. When that happens I'll believe that the world population is even slightly serious about oil useage.
With the exception of aircraft can you give me an example of an oil burning system for which a non-oil based alternative does not exist already, or for which a 50% reduction in oil use is not already available? Why will we have an oil-use crisis in 9 years time (Laherrere's figures)if the technology to reduce our oil use by 50% already exists?
It may not be cheap, but we can do it when we want to. We (society) don't seem to want to.
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
In my viewpoint time is also a resource (after all I work as an industrial engineering type) so you help me prove my point. You want to optimize your most valuable resources first and then work to improve from there. Oil seems to be the current hot topic within this thread but there are many other resources to consider as well.
Of course the excercise gained from cycling to either school or work has its own benefits and value
Regards
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Although, the technology exists, we would still have to put it into place. So there would be a transition period, where we start replacing oil with other technologies (solar, wind, nuclear, etc...)
Well, let us not fool ourselves. This transition / implementation will be very costly. We are looking at gigantic costs here.
Realistically, it could take decades to make the transition. The problem is we do not have decades.
Our society is heading towards a collapse. Here is an excellent quote from Joseph Tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Societies":
"However much we like to think of ourselves as something special in world history, in fact industrial societies are subject to the same principles that caused earlier societies to collapse."
All through out history all Empires eventually collapsed (e.g. Roman, Ancient Greek, Ottoman). Why should our industrial society be any different?
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
~NiM
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
We are currently trying to design a biodiesel facility that will use animal fat as the basic raw material. The players in this operation are strangly arrayed to say the least. There are the owners, an architect they trust and then the engineers. Then me the "drafstsman"
We are currently bogged down over really simple things like how much separation there needs to be between the various hazardous material storage tanks/vessels and the buildings near them.
The hazardous materials are: Methane, Sulfuric Acid, Caustic Soda, and I am afraid, others that which I am not yet aware. All of the materials are be stored above ground in tanks outdoors.
If you care to respond to this post I will be glad to provide any furthur details that I can.
Streek
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Last I checked, there are billions of tons of coal laying around in various parts of the world. It's messy and damaging to mine, but can't we focus on improving our methods?
It might not be the uber-fuel of low sulfur coal that is in such short supply, but why not examine how to make what we have a bunch of burn cleaner and more potently?
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Iraq anyone? anyone?
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Right now we are lucky in that we have plenty. We should be preparing for the future when there isn't any - even if that is 200 years away, now is the time to start. I don't think that moving to more efficient carbon machines is any kind of answer because the small linear improvements are insignificant compared to the global, exponential population increase.
My conclusion is that there is no engineering solution to this. It is a social problem, not an engineering problem. I can illustrate the point easily: Imagine someone invents cheap, clean fusion power. No more power problems. The population thinks 'great' and keeps on consuming and growing. You then start running out of fresh water and land space - this is already starting to happen, take an easy example, the depletion of the rainforests on all continents, the water conflicts in the Jordan valley.
We already have ALL of the technology that we need to be sustainable, it's really easy for us now. Nothing new needs to be invented. We have wind, tide, hydro, bio-fuels, all easy. As a simple example, if you wanted to replace all of Europe's oil with bio fuel you would have to plant an area the size of Germany with oil-seed rape. This is impractical. If the population of Europe was 1/5th of what it is now then that is nowhere near as big a deal. And it is carbon neutral with the atmosphere.
In conclusion, we do not have a technology problem, we have a people problem. There is no engineering our way out of this mess so you may as well all put down your drawing pencils.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
And for those doubters about the motives for Iraq (and there are some very good reasons other than oil, don't get me wrong), you don't see a similar clamour to occupy Sudan, Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, Zimbabwe, China, North Korea et. al, where similar attrocities are being committed. Wonder why that is? Maybe because there's no oil?
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Iraq anyone? anyone?"
"Sudan, Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, Zimbabwe, China, North Korea et. al,"
Come on. Talk about politically biased thinking.
We are in Kosovo (without UN authorization I might add.) We are in South Korea, tried Mogadishu and Vietnam too. There are literally dozens of other countries we have a military presence in. Where is the oil there? Given the problems we are having in Iraq, I would suggest the above mentioned countries (gwolf) would be far more difficult to "assist" for vastly varying reasons. We can only accomplish so much. Surely as an engineer you understand "best bang for your buck."
Just to be clear, I have no doubt any administration would do as you are indicating if necessary tho. (Ok, maybe not Jimmy, can you say nuclear north korea, Carter.)
Oil shale answers all your questions!! Git er done!! Just kiddin. Does sorta support Gregs supposition tho.
http://www
ht
Life is what happens while we're making other plans.
Wally
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
It seems that the issue of peak oil is being taken seriously by the various governments, and its rate of decline is sufficently slow enough that a catastrophic shock to the economies and populations is not likely .
There has been no major oil discovery since about 1970 , of the size of the saudi arabian fields ( go ahead, check the size of the fields discoverd since then). The largest increase in available oil will likely be due to "tertiary" recovery efforts and also deep sea rigs, while the potential for canadian and venezualen shale oil is enormous but an energy inefient process. The tertiary recovery processes generally require a market in cheap, liquid CO2 to move forward, and this seems to dovetail with recent efforts to build IGCC's with CO2 recovery. This has the potential to nearly double the recoverable oil from existing fields.
The deep sea fields have not been harvested to date due to associated natural gas releases, but this can be now overcome by barge mounted gas liquifaction technology ( as per IHI offerings).
As far as population control goes, there was a step change in fecundity of China and also western developed nations following the publication of the "Club of Rome " report on population issues in the 1960's. The China approach was the "one child one family " policy while the western approach was a (probably deliberate) culture change that included women's lib, attitudes toward abortion and birth control, and "raising the value of women" by incorporating them in the workplace. If one discounts immigration, western countries have negative rate of increase in poplulation.
These same types of population control efforts can be used by those contries that retain the medieval practices of treating women as baby factories.
Also, it is to be noted that some EU countries currently are demosntarting that one can have an incrasing economy while also having a decreasing rate of energy consumption per capita, so that old connection between energy consumption and economic growth has to be questioned.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Instead of so effortlessly dismissing the idea of bicycling to work as being "inefficient" time-wise, consider the health, quality of life, and environmental advantages of cycling.
I typically cycle 4 days out of the 5-day work week. Round-trip per day is 34 miles. With the increased cost of fuel, I can increase that ratio of cycling 9 days out of 10.
It takes me about 74 minutes (one-way, 17 miles) on bicycle vs. 44 minutes by automobile. Plus, I don't have to spend any time going to an athletic club to work-out.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Edward L. Klein
Pipe Stress Engineer
Houston, Texas
"All the world is a Spring"
All opinions expressed here are my own and not my company's.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
I take all of your points graciously, but I resent insults like "Come on. Talk about politically biased thinking".
My points about resource depletion, over-population, and the USA only seriously comitting when oil is involved are fair and true. Don't drag Korea and Vietnam into this, they were clearly ideaological not resource based conflicts based on the Cold War 40-50 years ago. They are not relevant to this discussion. You give yourself away with the comment "best bang for your buck."
As we're on the subject of wars, p.s. Thanks USA for saving Britain from initially Hitler and then probably Stalin. Especially as it was an old-world conflict which was rightly not your responsibility. If it wasn't for the USA, Britain would have fallen very quickly. You would be surprised how many older British people are convinced that we did it all and that the USA "just helped out a little bit with supplies".
gwolf
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
This thread has been "Godwin'd".
Interesting how it always becomes relevant down to the matters of a generation before our own.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
It rather torques me when U.S. motives are simplified and twisted. We may be as hegemonic as the next culture, but if there is one culture in this world that can be said to be nonimperialist, that would be us.
As has been said, resource depletion and overpopulation require poltical and social answers as well as engineered answers. All of which require money. Doesn't everything?
Life is what happens while we're making other plans.
Wally
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Iraq may be about a lot of things,including middle east stability and that certainly effects oil supply, but ultimately it is not about taking their oil. We will pay for any oil that comes from Iraq, over and over and over again.
Don't believe everything you read.... The US Government and George Bush in particular is not as stupid as the world press would have you believe....
-The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Wally, apology accepted. The cute and humourous emoticons helped. By the way, how do you incorporate these things into posts, is it part of the
sms, "we just buy oil and happily" - are you serious?
rhodie, This thread has been "Godwin'd". I'm unfamiliar with the origins of this specific term but I think I know what you are saying.
Back to the thread, I maintain my stance that population growth is the real problem, you may be able to ease the problem for 100-200 years by being clever but you will still ultimately end up back at the same point, but this time with an enormous population instead of a huge one.
I have no solution. Maybe engineers should become politicians - now that would be a first.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.
There is a tradition in many Usenet newsgroups that once such a comparison is made, the thread is over, and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress. Godwin's law thus practically guarantees the existence of an upper bound on thread length in those groups. Many people understand Godwin's law to mean this, although (as is clear from the statement of the law above) this is not the original formulation.
From wiki
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
As developing countries grow economically, more and more poor people will lay claims on the energy resources to improve their lives and this is quite capable of offsetting all future predictions.
"The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!" sums it all.
Ciao.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
And what happens when countries don't want to sell oil to the USA because they have been bullied by the USA's foireign policies????
Are you really suggesting that the USA plays fairly on the world stage as far as trade relations go. They don't even play fair with Canada their largest trading partner. Imagine how they treat other countries that are not friendly. Take a look at the softwood lumber dispute and the mad cow issues in Canada. Notice the president of China is in Canada this week asking for more trade with Canada. Considering the trade relations with the USA I would bet Paul is all for it.
I think the Hitler/ Nazi thing is related with so kind of time factor. Do you think in the future it will be 9/11, Iraq war comments that cross the line.
I notice these threads have a certain threshold for political debate. 9/11, British bombings and Iraq war are still beyond the threshold unless of course you support the war.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
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RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Emoticons/Smileys page.
Top of page has various other page choices.
If you are not a liberal when you are young, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative when you are old, you have no brain.........Winston Churchill.
Wally
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
> If you are not a liberal when you are young, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative when you are old, you have no brain.........Winston Churchill.
One of my favourite quotes
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
QCE: "And what happens when countries don't want to sell oil to the USA because they have been bullied by the USA's foireign policies????"
We'll either buy elsewhere and pay more, solve the engineering problem and make oil obsolete, or get serious about pumping our own oil. If you really think that the US would start invading middle eastern countries to steal their oil you are either naive, or have no concept of culture and politics in the USA. The people of the US would not let it happen. There will always be those willing to sell oil to the US. Too much money involved not to.
QCE: "Are you really suggesting that the USA plays fairly on the world stage as far as trade relations go."
I did not suggest that at all, business is business. What does fair have to do with business or international politics. Depending on how you define playing fair, I would suggest that China does not play fair, neither does Russia, or the European Union. In a way the Mexican government encourages their people to head north so they don't have to take care of them. Is that fair?
In fact countries all over the world have invited US oil companies in to explore fields and start production, only to nationalize those assets and kick the US firms out. Nothing fair about that, but it is business in the modern world.
-The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
"Facts" - At current (end of 2004) consumption rates and based on proved reserves, the world has 66 years of gas, 40 years of oil, and 164 years of coal. Source is BP annual survey which matches US DOE EIA fairly well.
"Opinion" - Growth in world oil consumption is not exponential. from 1990 with projection to 2015 it is linear with an annual growth rate of about 1.3 MMBPD. Source is EIA.
The current high prices ($60-$70/bbl) are likely caused by production limits not reserve limits. It will probably take 1-2 years for production to catch up. I think the production facilities got behind due to surprising demand from China and India while areas with large reserves got behind in production capacity due to political problems. The prime examples are Iraq and the former USSR.
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
The 1100 billion barrels of reserves quoted in the EIA website and in the BP Statisitcal Energy Review are PROVED reserves, ie those reserves which current engineering and geological understanding indicates can be recovered under existing economic and operating conditions.
So there is an explicit influence of the price of oil- if the oil price goes up, the amount of proved reserves also goes up, without any exploration effort at all! Proved reserves have increased year on year every year apart from a couple of wobbles in 1990 after the price crash at the end of the '80s and again in 1997 when the oil price dropped to $10/bbl (god 1997 was awful!)
Then there are the other types of reserves: Probable and Possible....the USGS suggests there is at least another half a billion barrels to be discovered (ie the average of the sum of the probable and possible around the world). Then you add in the non conventional oil sources: heavy oil, tar sands, oil shales, marine gas hydrates, coal bed methane etc.
There have been large discoveries regularly (large is generally accepted as over a billion barrels): Girassol, Shakhalin, AGT, Chriag, even a mature province like the North Sea threw up Buzzard a couple of years ago, and Chevron are rumoured to have found something very big West of Shetland. Ture, there haven't been many discoveries like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, or Cantarell in Mexico, but these super giant fields are the exception rather than the rule- there's only a handful of them anyway!
Finally the Hubbert Peak only works once you've gone past the peak- it can't predict where the peak will be....and it only works within a closed system; change the sytem and the peak changes: how come oil prodution from the US lower 48 is increasing compared to a decade ago, when the Hubbert's peak for lower 48 production shows that it peaked in the 70's and should be on a steady, unstoppable decline? Answer: there's a new province, the deep and ultra deep Gulf of Mexico.
Hydrocarbons will be important as a source of energy at least until I retire, and proabaly at least until my children retire too.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Then we had better start changing ****ing quickly because those time scales are a blink of an eye in human civilization terms, non-existent in geological terms.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
"Next best alternative" is something we all have to deal with. Total cost, cost effectiveness, ROI and such are a fact of life whether we are dealing with individuals or companies, sex, alternative energy or wars. Mr. Locock and others have oft said that the IC engine is ~20-40% efficient, yet we go on using it. Power plants are in that range also I believe. Why do we go on using them? What is the next best alternative? Right now there are none.
Those in the world that espouse the dire need for replacement energy sources no doubt still drive IC engined cars, have AC and petrol-fueled home and work climate controls along with all of the other petrol-based accoutrements of modern-day living (everything from socks to hair gel.) It is a rare enviro-...character that puts his money where his mouth and then only to some small extent. Greenpeace even interferes with petrol-powered boats.
Govt. will always warp the free market as it warps everything it touches. That is not always a bad thing. Govt. can quickly change things for the better if the will of the people is behind it. Unfortunately, people can rarely see past their own avarice. Predictions of coming crisis IMO have always always been motivated by something other than benevolence
Life is what happens while we're making other plans.
Wally
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
If we also could persuade the average soccer mum to delete 4wd from her bus, and use a modicum of technology in the structure, and use sensible road tires not off-road ones, we could probably get another 10% off her fuel bill, and increase her safety and that of other users.
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
-The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
There were a few swivel eyed Neo Republicans who dreamt of invading Iraq and privatising the Iraqi oil industry as a way to break OPEC, but no US oil man is ever going to want to destroy OPEC- the only reason there's a long term US oil industry at all is because OPEC keeps the oil price artificailly high (although right now OPEC isn't needed to maintain oil prices, but soon, say 2007, it will be). The ex-Shell USA guy who was put in charge of the Iraqi Oil Industry by Bremmer blocked every move towards privatisation that was tried by the CPA because of this.
The easiest way to get oil is to buy it; the US buys it quite happily from people it despises (Venuzuala) or that despise it (Saudi Arabia) or places that are run by meglomaniac madmen (Turkmenistan).
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
-The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Chavez is a very good populatist politician, gaining massive support from the poor of Venuzuala by talking of Bolivariran revolution, taking on the establishment (PDVSA, the middle classes etc), using emotive language about foreign oil companies owing back taxes and so on. For Chavez, using the threat of gringo invasion and interference in Venuzuala's affairs is very useful politically (even his opponents in the middle classes would probably unite with him to oppose direct US interference in their country).
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Oil shortages, alternative energy and resource wars
Saudi light sweet crude rises to the surface under its own pressure. It's easy to recover and to make gasoline from- by "easy" you should read "requires a smaller fraction of the product be burned to make the energy necessary to get these things done". This means fewer tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energ delivered to the end user, whether that be a powerplant or a fleet of SUVs.
Fuels like light sweet crude, land-based sweet natural gas etc- these are carbon efficient fuels, but they're also finite and are being depleted rapidly by growing consumption.
Tarsands, oil shale, stranded gas liquefaction, methane hydrates and coal- these are less carbon-efficient fuel sources. More of the product has to be burned to recover the product, hence more moles of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy derived. There's enough tarsands in Canada alone to fuel the US for 100+ years at predicted rates of consumption increase, and enough coal probably for 300+ years after that. Again, the question is not whether we have enough, but DARE we waste these resources dragging two tonnes of metal around with us everywhere we go?
Waste to fuels projects are merely a distraction, not a solution. Beneficial relative to "wasting" these secondary resources, but a mere drop in the bucket in comparison to fossil fuels consumption. "Thermal depolymerization" is merely pyrolysis wearing a Salvation Army dress and high heels. Many of pyrolysis's problems have been swept under the rug in that Discover magazine article, like referring to PAH-laden "char" as "solid carbon". One thing is certain: you get more energy for less cost out of burning these wastes directly to satisfy stationary energy requirements than you do by converting them to liquid transporation fuels and THEN burning them!
Many of the so-called "alternative energy" sources are distractions also. Hydrogen falls into this category, as does biodiesel, grain or sugarcane ethanol etc.
The only thing which will drive efficiency and alternatives is increased cost of fuels due to a combination of natural market forces AND taxation. Unfortunately, the political will to do this is lacking. We'll all be choking on our own filth long before the politicians get their act together and do what's necesary. But that won't stop me from lobbying for it.
We technical people need to be honest with the politicians: there is no "technological fix" here- no magic potion or technology which will allow us to continue to squander energy in the wanton way that we North Americans do without growing costs- both economic and "intangible" like the affect on the climate and the effect of smog on health etc. Not hydrogen, not fusion, not wind or solar or the freakin' zero point energy of vacuum space. But there ARE engineers and technologies to actually SOLVE the problem of energy waste, if we put the money into using them!