I understand how to calculate the probability of failure using FOSM, FORM, Monte Carlo, etc. methods, and that different material factors will change the probability of failure, but what I want to know is how one might actually derive a material factor using a probabilistic method. Currently in design we appear to just apply the factors based on a codified approach which apparently has/is supposed to have a database behind it. Would it be possible to derive a material factor for design without such a 'failure database'?
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