News from California
News from California
(OP)
California passes new auto emission rules
This article is AMAZING. The regulators in California have mandated that 1.4 million electric cars be on the roads of the state by 2025. I tried to count the number of times electric cars were called "zero emissions" in the article and got to 8 before I lost count. One of the comments after the the article hit the nail on the head by saying "Electricity comes from coal and natural gas, why don't they call these cars 'coal fired vehicles'?".
Why do regulators insist on pretending that they can ignore the laws of nature?
David
This article is AMAZING. The regulators in California have mandated that 1.4 million electric cars be on the roads of the state by 2025. I tried to count the number of times electric cars were called "zero emissions" in the article and got to 8 before I lost count. One of the comments after the the article hit the nail on the head by saying "Electricity comes from coal and natural gas, why don't they call these cars 'coal fired vehicles'?".
Why do regulators insist on pretending that they can ignore the laws of nature?
David





RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
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RE: News from California
Despite the number of models available and apart from the lovies love affair with Prius, actual sales aren't exactly something to write home about.
Of course, what they could do is give away a G wiz with every Hummer Sold.
There must be something that will be found that will enable owners to exploit some sort of residence in other states. Or special leasing deals. For example, Rental car companies buy so many cars that they are able to negotiate very low factory prices. They then rent them for a brief period and then sell them. The resale price of the used cars is below the low factory price they paid for them.
There must be some sort of out of state deal that would deliver the same. Possibly a car owners club operated by the car rental firms. You simply own the vehicle registered out of state until your time runs out.
California's politicians are no brighter than anyone else's. You have to wonder what the unintended consequences will be.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Renewables are 26% of the state's consumption, but hydro and geothermal combined are 76% of that number (19.9% of total consumption). They aren't building any more dams, hell the Greenies want to tear the existing ones down. Large-scale geothermal seems to be built out, so somehow you have to parlay 6% of consumption into a resource that can supply "motor fuel equivalent" for 1.4 million vehicles. Not happening.
40 of 66 MW of capacity allocated to California comes from natural gas-fired power plants. This is due to a law that prohibits electricity from Coal plants from being used in the state--the law didn't cause a single coal-fired plant to close, it just caused apparent sources of power to move around. NIMBY says that the increase in conventional power generation that this bone-headed law requires will happen outside of California. My guess is that it will take longer to get water rights for cooling towers and EPA permits than is available to the people of the great state of California.
I just can't wait until a REALLY hot summer (the earth is warming, remember?) when everyone wants their AC on full blast and the police ban electric cars from the roads because their power consumption is increasing the shortage of power and the brownouts have become blackouts. I figure that will happen in 2012, 2013, or 2014. The 2025 goals are going to be tough to achieve in the face of that.
David
RE: News from California
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
For example, in the case of Wind Power:
htt
For Solar Power (a figure which included both photovoltaic and photothermal capacity):
http
However, on checking it appears that the Geothermal number was a bit out-of-date, being from 2000 so that figure could be higher today:
http://
And in my reinvestigation I found data on Hydroelectric production, and as you see, the generation capacity in California is not insignificant, being greater for example than the 8 so-called mountain states combined. Only one other state produces more hydroelectric power and that's Washington state with their extensive series of Columbia River dams.
h
So again, I make the point that by 2025, the total amount of renewable energy being produced in California could be very significant indeed.
John R. Baker, P.E.
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Non-EIA sources of energy data are made up of guesses, partial understanding of trends, and extrapolations. I work with energy data as a central part of my job. I look at a lot of it. It frustrates me that I have to wait 2 years to get data, but that is a fact of life. I've trolled the web and built some of those "guesses, partial understanding of trends, and extrapolations" data sets and when I got verifiable data I was never very close.
California does have significant hydro (13.6% of total consumption n 2009), a large part of that comes from their allocation of power from Hoover Dam (55.9% of 2,080 MW) and Glen Canyon Dam (power allocations not readily available), but they do have a large number of smaller dams in the Sierra Nevada's. When was the last time you heard about a new one being built? Wikipedia has a list of 24 major projects under construction and not a single one is in the U.S. let alone in California. I think you have to call hydro "base load".
David
RE: News from California
Do we assume that one of the actions they will be able to take is to shut down the car charging circuit?
Or will owners of electric cars be exempted from intervention?
What about those who don't own a car (assuming such individuals do exist in CA - I know it is usually the cue to ring 911 whenever anyone confesses to not owning a car or not being able to drive or who wants to pay cash for something, but there must still be some in CA who are not homeless people)? How do they establish their green credentials to the power companies and Al Gore?
Do they have to have car charging circuits installed and hook up stuff to charge so as to fool the smart meter system?
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
I'm pretty sure there was another earlier thread but the Eng-tips search won't find it for me.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Doing a full site search with Smart or smart plus as search terms will find you several different threads.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
As far as what regulators can demand, they can't demand that people buy one thing versus another. They can, however, prohibid the sale of things which don't meet the regulations, and they can put pricing pressure in the market to shift behavior in the direction they want it to go. Given that what they're after is a reduction in the emissions, including the CO2 emissions, from fossil fuel combustion for transport, the best way to give people the market feedback signal they need to make proper decisions would be a fossil fuel tax. That would make fossil fuels themselves more expensive, as well as making fossil-derived electricity more expensive as well.
RE: News from California
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
You are dead right about that one. The European governments don't seem to do much that makes sense to me, but ramping fuel taxes up since the mid-1970's was an energy policy that has pretty much worked (people complain bitterly about it, but they have altered their energy consumption because the price was high enough to matter).
If Jimmy Carter's response to the Oil Embargo had been a dime tax on a gallon of fuel (that could increase every year), back when imports were under 10% of U.S. consumption, imports never would have gotten to 75%. We wouldn't currently be exporting a half billion dollars a day to purchase foreign oil. Cars would be smaller, and smarter. Long-haul trucks would from 50 years ago would not still be on the road because they couldn't compete with the effeciency of today's diesels. Instead our lovely govenrment put restriction after restriction (some of them even made sense) on the U.S. Oil & Gas industry and 3/4 of our motor fuel comes from imports. Fix that and the economy fixes itself.
David
RE: News from California
BTW, there's a reason for BOTH of these situations; AMERICAN oil companies get an EXTRA tax break when they refine foreign crude and then ship it back out to a foreign buyer (remember, the oil coming out of a Keystone pipeline would be Canadian in origin). For federal tax purposes, the refining of the crude in this case can be carried on the books as if it occured OUTSIDE the US and therefore exempt from federal taxes. And yet the Right continues to complain about subsidies for companies in the renewable energy business.
After all, it's been over a hundred years now. Don't you think that American oil companies should be able to compete without having to depend on taxpayer money?
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
One of the bad things about a 4 year election cycle is you can't plan more then 4 years ahead or you lose.
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RE: News from California
Don't forget, after entering office Reagan immediately started to dismantle Carter's energy initiatives including going so far as to order that the solar panels, which Carter had installed at the White House, be removed AND DESTROYED. However, since they were technically government property some GSA official had them declared as 'surplus' and put in a warehouse instead. Years later they ended up at a college in New England where some of them are still in use to this day.
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
One of my classmates from engineering school just retired as head of the Financial Giving foundation for one of the community colleges up in Silicon Valley and one of his last programs he was responsible for was finding donations to help fund installing solar panels on virtually all the available roof area of the colleges buildings.
It's these sorts of siutations where technology like photovoltaics is ideal as it can be done in an incremental manner, as resources are available and it promotes energy production at the point of usage which in the end increases the overall efficiently of the proposition. There are virtually thousands of opportunities like this around the country where this approach could be leveraged. What we need is something like Germany's 'Million Solar Roofs' initiative which could a long way to reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and would increase the overall efficiency of the 'grid' since production will be geographically better integrated with where the energy is actually being used.
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
As far as I know the only "pure" electric vehicle on sale now is the Chevy Volt. (correct me if I'm wrong).
I personally know one of the engineers that developed the battery management system. He mentioned it's life between 4-5 years max, with a substantial drop in life if the temperature varied even a degree south. There are multiple heat exchangers on the car just to cool the battery packs.
Battery technology will continue to be a bottle neck for electric cars. Unless of course we only keep our vehicles for 2-3 years and don't drive more then 300km on a trip.
The industry has to do a lot better then that if 1.4 million are foreseen as daily drivers. That's IMO.
Fe (IronX32)
RE: News from California
Fe (IronX32)
RE: News from California
I think electric cars are great, regardless of the whole CO2 thing. If you can get some of the energy from renewable sources (or nuclear) then all the better, but if you can't, they're still worthwhile for two big reasons:
1) Air quality,
2) Foreign oil dependence.
The more we in the US can disassociate our economy with the fluctuating prices of crude oil, the better we can weather a dollar-crash scenario.
The only thing I don't get about the Fruits and Nuts initiative, is how they plan on enforcing it. The devil is in that detail.
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
Gasoline contains around 114,000 BTU/gallon. Electric cars are heavy and you would expect a small sedan of the same weight to get around 20 mile/gallon so 5700 BTU/mile. At 50 miles/hour that would be 342,000 BTU/hr. That is 100.2 kW each hour. My last home electric bill showed home power in my area to be $0.12/kW-hr, so at today's prices an electric car would cost me $12/gallon-equivalent distance.
On the other hand is the zero-emissions assertion. Most electric cars will be plugged into home electric circuits. That power is generated somewhere (with a thermodynamic effeciency just slightly better than today's internal combustion engine). Then it is transported over wires with a non-trivial transmission loss. Then the voltage is stepped down in several steps, each of which convert some amount of the electricity to heat. Finally something like 50% of the power generated gets to the plug. Central power plants are more effecient both in terms of usable power out per unit of input energy and in terms of mass of pollutants per unit of input energy, but not twice as good. Net result of electric cars is significantly more pollution per mile driven than with a gasoline vehicle of the same size and weight driven similar distances.
Not quite the "zero emissions" that the lawmakers are looking for.
David
RE: News from California
The Leaf is the ONLY fully electric production car on the North American market. The Volt is an extended range hybrid, which operates the gas engine at highway speed as a means of energy management. The best I could hope for on my commute, which is part highway part city, is about 1.5 L/100 km with the Volt. Unfortunately, the Leaf is VERY expensive, even with signficant government subsidy to help fund the purchase. And with only a 4-5 yr life for the battery packs (I'm figuring 1000 full charge/discharge cycles being the most you're likely to get, no different than a laptop battery), battery pack replacement rather than electricity becomes the major operating cost. But improvements are inevitable over time.
RE: News from California
Comprehension is not understanding. Understanding is not wisdom. And it is wisdom that gives us the ability to apply what we know, to our real world situations
RE: News from California
As the then largest consumer they were able to regulate what they paid for imported gasoline much as supermarkets can dictate prices to their suppliers.
This kept the price at the pumps low.
Deregulation meant a hike in prices as they finally paid the market value - though it then became a seller's market with OPEC as practically the only legal "ring" allowed to "fix" prices.
But did this happen or do I misremember it?
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
I also believe there are restrictions on oil drilling, which would, if allowed, reduce our current import of oil.
But if we are exporting oil products, and importing oil, isen't there some pass through that may not be reported or accounted for correctly? It would seem to me that if we are exporting oil products, then we really are not consuming all that we are importing.
RE: News from California
Besides, if one wanted to take a pure Machiavellian view of this, perhaps we should STOP ALL domestic oil production, using ONLY foreign crude so that once the world passes the point of 'peak oil', which some say may have already occurred, that the US could then eventually become the 'cartel' which controls to whom and for how much will oil be sold.
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
I don't know where to start.
Average return on capital in the Oil & Gas industry is around 5%. Yeah, companies occasionally make a LOT of money, but it takes a LOT of capital to do it. It is not uncommon for a deep offshore well to take $20 billion dollars and 15 years to get from engineering design to first delivery. Quite a drain on the bottom line for a really long time. If a movie company (for example) ever got as low as 5% return on capital top management would be fired the day the numbers were published. Similar risk profiles, but very different expectations.
The much reported export of gasoline is proof that complicated concepts should not be reduced to sound bytes. Crude moves to excess refining capacity. U.S. refineries are REALLY old and no one really knows how much longer they can last, but while they last they are quite effecient at turning certain crude oils into marketable products. There are refineries in the world that do a better job for certain kinds of crude, so that kind of crude is exported to those refineries. Other kinds of crude fits the capabilities of U.S. refineries and it is shipped here (shows up as an import) refined (shows up in the GDP), and shipped home (shows up as an export). The refinery gets a processing fee. These values are netted out on the U.S. import/export balance and the net is 75% of U.S. consumption is imported. All of these movements are efforts to make the global supply/demand balance as effective as possible.
Undrilled acreage is another concept that shouldn't be reduced to a sound byte. I live in the San Juan Basin of Northern New Mexico. In this basin there are nearly 40,000 wells. Some formations are fully drilled. Some aren't. One formation that has huge drilling potential (in terms of number of undrilled blocks) is called the "Dakota". The Dakota formation is very resistant to flow (we call that "tight") and a good Dakota well will make 100 MCF/day--the wells cost $1-1.5 million to drill and equip. If gas is $2/MCF (which is where the EIA says prices are heading) then it will take 13 years for that well to pay off. Most companies see that kind of a return as unacceptable and don't drill them. If the government expired those leases it would be unlikely that they would sell again. That is the reality. There is not a queue lined up to get Dakota leases.
You make the insinuation that the industry is somehow evil for taking advantage of legal tax loop holes. Congress writes the tax code. One example of a "loop hole" is the Section 179 tax credits. This program was created in 1988 and said that since unconventional gas production contained a very high risk (because no one knew how to operate it), it was not economic to drill it at $0.80/MCF prices currently in effect. The tax credit said that if the industry would take the risk, then we could deduct an amount about equal to current sales price from our taxes. Heck of a good deal. It caused companies to reconsider drilling CBM, and tight gas. By the time the tax credits expired in 1998, we had learned enough about these tough plays that we could start looking at Shale Gas with a reasonable expectation of success. Today unconventional gas makes up over 50% of U.S. natural gas supply. Without the Section 179 tax credit we would not have learned how to develop these resources (with the tax credit we had to start over about 4 times after going down dead-end paths, without the tax credit most of us would have stopped at the second or third failed attempt).
Congress writes the tax code to manipulate the economy into directions that Congress desires. If people follow the tax code how the hell do they become villains. If Congress is so weak spirited (and they are) that they are susceptible to influence, then why do we hate the people who legally try to educate them instead of the Congressmen themselves? I think the villains in Washington are the people we've elected.
David
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Elected officials are human, as such they are imperfect, with limited knowledge. Lobbyists serve to bring the views of a group to the attention of a policy maker with all of the deeper understanding that group has on an issue. Are lobbyists always truthful?, always give the unadulterated facts?, No. Yet they still play an important role in our governance.
Anyone running for office who says they have all the answers, doesn't.
Back to the OP, America's lifestyle, in particular, is unlikely to change before our fuel options do. What is wrong with some government intervention spurring electric vehicle adoption? It creates a market for the infrastructure that needs to be built, speeds up advances in the technology, softens the losses early developers of the technology will likely suffer. It sounds eerily similar to your defense of O&G tax breaks.
Comprehension is not understanding. Understanding is not wisdom. And it is wisdom that gives us the ability to apply what we know, to our real world situations
RE: News from California
Ca has been down this road before of specifying how many battery powered vehicles had to be allowed but as I understand it technology didn't keep up with the dreams of the fruits and nuts. I guess true believers can't even learn from their mistakes.
Why all this talk of battery power and hydrogen cells.
Perhaps if they'd focused on encouraging NG use in vehicles they'd have done more to actually improve the air quality.
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: News from California
The regulation that started this thread is saying that 1.4 million electric vehicles WILL be on the road by the deadline. If the people of California don't want to purchase that many electric vehicles then auto manufacturers will be fined. This looks like an example of a stick and a bigger stick.
As to Congressmen becoming all-knowing by virtue of a beauty contest, that is just nonsense. Voters have no reason to expect omniscience. They do have a right to expect that the Congresscritter will attempt to represent the will of his constituents and will vote that way. Folks in DC say "my district is divided on the subject so "I'm voting my conscience".
My representative did that. On one major piece of legislation, four different polls said that around 72% of his constituents were against it. His mail was running 4 to 1 against so the polls were pretty well matched with his mail--a clear mandate to vote "NO". The leader of the Democrat party was pushing for the bill. My invertebrate congressman voted "yes". And then he got reelected. Since reelection he has not voted in line with his constituents a single time--why should he? There is no recourse for ignoring us, and going along with the party is soooo easy.
David
RE: News from California
Do you actually live in California? If not, do you visit here often?
I ask because with your last comment you seem to think that we haven't been doing anything to "improve the air quality". My wife and I have been here nearly 32 years and I can assure you that the air quailty, at least here in SoCal (LA and Orange Co), is MUCH better today than it was 32 years ago. Back then it was not uncommon to have 3 or 4 'Smog Alerts' during the Summer and into the Fall. Right now I can't recall the last time we had one (it's got to have been 10 years or so). When we first moved here, it was 6 months before we realized that there was ANOTHER mountain range BEHIND the one we could actually see from our house. The smog had obscured it. Now I would say if you went a week without being able to see the mountains it would be considered unusual and probably only happens now if it's cloud cover from a lingering weather system and not the air quality itself which would prevent us from seeing the mountains for longer than a few days at a time.
As for NG powered vehicles, they are all over the place. Virtually every municipal bus, garbage truck, airport shuttle, public utility owned vehicle, etc are already running on Natural Gas (or in the case of the electric company, many of their vehicles are either plug-in hybrids or pure electric). There are NG refueling stations located in several places around the area and more and more private vehicles are seen on the road with an 'NG Powered' decal on the rear fascia.
While we can do a lot more to improve the air quality here in SoCal, it would be wrong to think that we haven't already taking steps to do so or that we've not made significant progress based on those steps already taken. In fact, it may be the progress that HAS been made in the last 30 year or so which is motivating public officials to propose even bigger and more controversial steps since we now know that even over a short period of time, policies change can and do have an effect.
John R. Baker, P.E.
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Sure things have improved, but a day trip to Bakersfield can still have my wife coughing and wheezing for a few days.
(Yes I know there's more than vehicle pollution to that.)
However, my point about NG stands. From a CO2 point of view it's not a big big winner. However, for other pollutants given you can burn it in the kitchen I'm guessing it must have advantages.
My point wasn't NG V everything they've done, it was NG v their obsession with 'zero emission vehicles'.
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: News from California
I was born in Long Beach 59 years ago. Moved out when I was 13. Moved back with the Navy in 1973. Left again in 1977. Now I visit 3-4 times a year. The difference in the air quality between the mid-60's and mid-70's was a pretty marked deterioriation. The difference between the mid-70's and now is a huge improvement. It still shocks me to come out of San Bernadino and drive into the muck, but the muck is much thinner than 1973.
There definately have been good results. Any idea what actions had the biggest impact? Is it the allowable particulates in diesel? Getting rid of lead in gasoline? Banning coal-fired power plants (I don't think there were any in the LA Basin, but maybe)? Mass transit? Carpooling (it looks to me like virtually every car on the freeway has one occupant, but I know that isn't true)? Something else?
David
RE: News from California
What happens if they miss their target? Nothing?
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
One thing that can't be discounted is the number cars that have been taken off the road in the past 32 years which were equipped with little or no emissions controls. Even though the number of vehicles on the road has increased in those same 32 years, the AVERAGE emissions per mile driven has got to be down by an order of magnitude, if not multiple orders. This fact alone has got to have had a significant impact on the overall air quality.
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
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UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
David
RE: News from California
While all cars, once you've owned them for more than 5 years, must be smog-checked every 2 years, if the car was originally sold in California and it has not been 'tampered' with then as long as you can continue to pass the normal tests you're OK (BTW, the pass/fail standard for that test is set based on what was required at the time the vehicle was sold as new, not what a car sold today would have to pass). Only when a car reaches a certain age, it used to be 25 years old but it could be longer now, you had the option to register it as an 'antique' or 'classic car' and it would either be exempt or moved to a lower standard.
Also, if you could find figures on the rate at which the emissions were being reduced based on the cars being taken off the roads, I suspect that this would not be a linear curve, but perhaps something more exponential, at least for the period from the late 70's and well into the 90's.
John R. Baker, P.E.
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To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
David
RE: News from California
htt
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: News from California
That is not a bad assessment. I especially like the quote
and
and finally
I did a materials analysis on electric cars as my senior project in college in 1980. The assumption back then was that electric vehicles would have a bank of lead-acid batteries (we were not allowed to assume breakthrough technology which LiIon batteries would have been back then). We looked at techniques to maximize battery life and decided that two battery packs per vehicle was the only alternative that provided adequate battery life (the analysis showed that charge rate had a significant impact on battery life so if you could take 24 hours for a normal charge the batteries would last 4-5 times more charges so the pair of batteries would last 10 years instead of a single pack lasting one year). We were told to list, but ignore, minor issues like where the heck someone would set the second battery pack while charging and how we were going to prevent houses from burning down due to hydrogen off gassing. We looked at the number of new batteries that were needed and the components of the batteries. We found that there were two trace elements (antimony and another that I can't remember) that were vital, but that were only available from places with very unstable governments. Our findings were that lead-acid batteries were untenable power supply for an 1 million + EV Fleet.
David
RE: News from California
htt
Comprehension is not understanding. Understanding is not wisdom. And it is wisdom that gives us the ability to apply what we know, to our real world situations
RE: News from California
I agree with David: California IS the land of fruits and nuts...Well intentioned initiatives taken to such a ridiculous extreme that it is now a parody of itself.
Take a look at this warning I found on a piece of plywood I received as a piece of packaging material. Californial Prop 65 requires this labelling. This is so mind-numbingly stupid I can't get over it!
RE: News from California
I was born in California. I lived there three different times as an adult. I visit frequently. I like the place. There is a lot of crazy in the laws. There is a lot of crazy in the choices the electorate makes.
The state did give us Ronald Regan. The family that I still have there is just about as conservative as I am. The public face of California is pretty wacky, but the majority seems to be just folks.
David
RE: News from California
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: News from California
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
In terms of air quality, it makes quite a bit of difference. Coal is cleaner per unit of energy than gasoline is, and coal effluent goes up a smokestack and gets spread very thinly, while gasoline goes out a tailpipe and into my face.
It also makes quite a bit of difference where the energy originates, for future scenarios where the dollar may tank. If the dollar tanks, all oil (even domestic oil) is going to be stupendously expensive, because it's all sold on a global market. But the cost of electricity generated here will scale with our ability to buy it, since it's made here and can't be exported.
His points about rare metals may have some merit - I'm not particularly knowledgeable about those things. Then again, he's a Swiss lawyer, so I'm not sure how much he knows about them either.
His points about the ROI are correct and obvious, until the price of oil changes. Electric cars are a hedge bet against oil staying this cheap.
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
But you also made a good point about coal being cleaner than gasoline.
If the dollar tanks, there are other alternitives that an auto cycle engine can consume. While not popular, or desirable, they are available (coal is one of them. Remember town gas).
The shame is all the money they spend on mass transit and they still can't get people out of there cars. There is some issue that is not being addressed, which we seem to be over looking.
RE: News from California
But in retrospect, it might have been nice if something like this had been posted back when asbestos could be found most anywhere simply flaking from the ceilings of schools, shopping malls, factories or even in your own home, particularly if you had hot water or steam heat. Or like when I was working in Michigan back in the 70's when my boss's son got a job working in the shop one summer while in college and he was handed a can of solvent and a wire brush was told to crawl inside a large casting and clean out all the rust and other crude before they moved it to the paint shop. When they broke for lunch someone started to look for him since he always joined them, they found him dead, overcome by the fumes from the unmarked can of solvent.
And while you might laugh at some of the laws and rules enacted here first (or at least get blamed for being first) sometimes things work out OK. I think 'Right-Turn on Red' was first legal in the 'Land of Fruits & Nuts', as was the first seatbeat laws, car pool lanes, handicap access rules, smoke free workplaces including bars and restaurants (after all, they're also 'workplaces'), etc.
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Regards,
Mike
RE: News from California
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
Putting warnings on pieces of wood is much, much worse than merely ineffective: it trivializes the real hazards that are there. Too many false alarms and warnings and you start to ignore them all. People will likely die needlessly as a result.
I'm confident that this piece of plywood would be harmful if taken internally too, but I'd like to test it to be sure. We can't test on animals any more- that would be cruel. I suggest that we test this on the jackasses that trivialized the entire notion of protective health and safety by applying this kind of warning to a piece of wood, rather than to the pieces of machinery which actually generate respirable wood dust in large quantity!
The "respirable crystalline silica" warnings weren't enough, obviously. The largest source of that particular hazard in our facility, by several orders of magnitude, is sweeping our concrete floor, but you can't battle the perception these warnings generate in people's heads with mere reason.
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
David
RE: News from California
Really? Coal is cleaner than gasoline? Are you sure that an EV charged 100% by a coal fired power plant will be cleaner than a modern Tier2 Bin5 compliant vehicle?
If we estimate that an EV requires 0.25 kW/mile, and ignoring all transmission and charging losses, I figure this is roughly 0.68g/mile of NOx alone. This would not come nowhere near passing the FTP standards. (0.07g/mile)
Does it really matter if it comes out the tailpipe or a smokestack when it comes to generating smog? Should we also ignore the heavy metal pollution that is emitted by coal fired power plants?
RE: News from California
Fe (IronX32)
RE: News from California
I see that you've never participated in a discussion about global climate change
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
http
So does this mean we should only allow EV in areas supplied by powerplants that would meet automotive standards?
"Facts" in complex issues are always open to interpretation.
Comprehension is not understanding. Understanding is not wisdom. And it is wisdom that gives us the ability to apply what we know, to our real world situations
RE: News from California
Good points CastMetal.
Fe (IronX32)
RE: News from California
It would be interesting to compare the natural gas--> electricity--> EV cycle to natural gas --> LNG --> IC hybrid in terms of both bulk fuel economy and total emissions. In that comparison I'm not sure the EV would win, but it would probably be close. Any use of renewables or nuclear in the grid supply, particularly renewables which are generated off-peak when they are currently more of a nuisance than truly useful, would tip the balance in favour of the EV. The use of coal would tip the balance back in the other direction to some degree.
RE: News from California
However, when attempting to assess particulates and such like as a factor in morbidity studies there is a lot of data missing.
One factor is that a lot of the data is historical and they have yet to figure out how modern living standards affect the data.
Back when Britian's air was dirty (most people tend to assume pollution is getting worse all the time but in fact the first major change came from smokeless fuels then the shift to gas from coal as a domestic fuel).
Interesting for example is the fact that before we had ring roads and everyone had cars industry was located in the towns where the workers lived.
Cars and ring roads meant factories moved to the peripheries. A move in most cases of a very few miles but despite the extra pollution form more cars, the net effect was a substantial lowering of local pollution in the towns with a significant reduction in life time exposure rates and such that, in the UK, it is only in a very few areas, at peak times and only at certain times in the year does anyone experience pollution levels in excess of the safe level and not for long enough to make a major morbidity impact.
Now the new factor.
In many parts people increasingly live in sealed homes and work in air conditioned sealed offices.
Air conditioning and central heating means people no longer experience as much outside polluted air as they once did.
Most people now drive in closed cars or buses and closed trains.
What they recognise they must collect data on is the comparative pollution levels in the home and workplace, shops etc and how much time they spend there now as compared to the past.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
Also how can the NOX concertrations from a central power plant be much different from a car? After all the NOX generation is dependit on the burn tempeture, and any removal process that the power plant may have. So in a central power plant the burn tempeture is controlled to reduce the NOX, and it may have a system to remove them.
What do cars do to reduce NOX? I know they use an air compressor to inject air into the exaust, but that just delutes the NOX, not reduce it. The air also adds oxygen so the converter can reduce the unburned hydrocarbons.
Something isen't making since.
RE: News from California
Water reduces the temperatures which limits NOX production.
This is being done with some marine engines.
The thing about NOX and other particulates is that from a health perspective the further you are from the source the better.
And not much further at that.
The few miles some industry moved made a big difference.
peak pollution levels occur adjacent to busy roads at rush hour.
NOX itself is predominantly natural but not in your face.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Agreed that the NOX conceration from an auto is deluted from the air injected into the exaust. But that dosen't reduce the amount.
RE: News from California
That's some fascinating stuff, GMIracing. Thanks for sharing it.
Do you happen to know how much effluent is produced by the process of refining crude into gasoline? If we're talking about total pollutant load from powering cars with alternative sources, that certainly has to go into the equation as well.
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
They are not zero emissions on an ashes to ashes accounting. Though the figures are disputed the early Prius came 60th in a list of lifetime pollutants and near the top came some kind of 4x4.... standard steels and they run a couple of times round the clock before they die and often as not they are kept running.
Battery disposal is also an issue.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Well pollution from the creation of the car itself is yet a whole other can of beans. We can open that can too if you like, but at some point you have to draw a line, or you end up drawing some pretty grim conclusions. How much pollution is created by the car owner, not just throughout the car's life, but throughout the owner's life? If you move the goalposts far enough back, the best thing to do for the environment is shoot yourself.
But lets say we decide to draw the line at car manufacture and that's it. We'd also have to look at durability and expected life of the car, as well as the pollution that went into each of the car's maintenance items. Batteries are a thing, but so's engine oil, transmission fluid, etc. And the longer the car itself lasts before you have to junk it, the more its pollution due to manufacture is spread out per mile.
Anyone know where I can buy a horse?
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
B.E.
The good engineer does not need to memorize every formula; he just needs to know where he can find them when he needs them. Old professor
RE: News from California
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
flashback to 1978...
It doesn't seem unreasonable that a modern car would have lower tailpipe NOx emissions than the power plant down the street. Comparing emissions standards, the power plant may have an NSPS limit of 1.6 pounds of NOx per MWh = 725.7 g / MWh = 0.7257 g/kW-hr. Looking at a 2004 ULEV vehicle: NOx limit is 0.07 g/mi, so about 2.1 g/gallon fuel @ 30mpg. The energy content of the fuel is about 36.6 kWh/US gal, which would give 0.06 g/kW-hr, if you based it on the energy in the fuel. Based on flywheel power output, you have more like 10 kW-hr mechanical per gallon, giving about 0.2 g /kW-hr.
How can tailpipe emissions be so low from a car, without water injection? Around here the device is called a three-way catalyst, and every gasoline vehicle has one. Can't recall seeing air injection into the exhaust since about 1985...
RE: News from California
That is a really promising study CastMetal, thanks for sharing. It looks like coal does have much potential for being a clean way to meet our future energy needs. It is also a good point that my assumption was using our current average emission rates, and I do expect that these will improve, just as the traditional ICEs will improve with the next generation of standards also. I just wanted to show that the "zero emissions vehicle" label is a bit misleading, and that currently coal generated power isn't really a green method to charge EVs.
Also a very good point you have moltenmetal, and I am not that familiar with the dynamics of emission gasses. I guess the idea I was trying to present is, that by replacing traditional Tier2Bin5 ICEs for the newest EVs, we would be moving 500,000 sources of "micro" pollution that is spread over a rather large city, to a single source point and at possibly increased quantities. Maybe it is better for the city, but what about inhabitants near the area of generation? Does releasing pollutants out a stack mean that someone downwind won't have to breathe them in significantly higher concentrations? As for monitoring, all federal compliance must be demonstrated by the OEMs to meet the standard for a lifetime of 150k miles. Outside of those that tamper with the equipment and violate the laws, monitoring isn't necessary.
Quite right, I've drove by enough refineries to know with my nose that everything coming out of them isn't all rainbows and butterflies, but I don't know the details without researching it. I simplified my boundary conditions for the calculation, because the equation grows rather complex when looking at it in a "raw material-to-driven mile" complete cycle analysis for both traditional and alternative sources. Finding, shipping, refining, shipping, and finally burning petroleum for transportation is an energy intensive and possibly quite dirty process. But EVs are not saints either. Lithium for the batteries is mined, creating a possible source of pollution. The increased electrical demand will also have to be generated somehow. Coal and gas are likely going to provide a majority of these increasing demands, at least for the short term, and they have to find their way out of the earth in huge operations and then be transported to the source of use. I wonder how much pollution is produced by the typical coal mining operation?
To get back to the original post: I wonder if California has any idea how their infrastructure will meet their "mandate" of 1.4 million cars. More back of the napkin calculations, 1.400.000 x 5kW-h nightly (20 miles at 250W/mile) = additional 7,000MW-h of energy per day, or = ~2500GW-h per year Will they be able to ramp up additional renewable energy in the same 2025 timeline?
I realize that California has a historical problem with smog and pollution, but I fail to see how this "mandate" does anything to really improve their current situation? The mandate will force the manufactures to insure that they are compliant at whatever means necessary, and they will then transfer the cost onto the consumer. This will most likely increase all new car costs across the board, which will then cause the less affluent to hold on to their older polluting cars even longer. Wouldn't it be a quicker improvement in air quality by offering incentives to update the true problematic older vehicles today instead of forcing the well off to buy a new EV (with a generous $7500 Fed kickback of course) and then wait for another 10-15 years for them to trickle down to the owners of the current dirty cars? Another question, will these EVs even last 10-15 years?
RE: News from California
A twenty year old 4x4 could do nicely if fitted with another large lump but a more modern lump with improved efficiency and better smog compliance.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Is this energy content at carnot limits, or actual efficency?
RE: News from California
Nox limits for power plants used to be based on fuel heat released (like LHV) but I think NSPS has changed that (more familiar with NSPS for gas compression engines where its based on bkW of the engine.
RE: News from California
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
It certainly bypasses some of the energy consuming intermediate steps. Smile!
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca
RE: News from California
"Same as the costs of special steels batteries etc has to go into EV evaluations.
They are not zero emissions on an ashes to ashes accounting. Though the figures are disputed the early Prius came 60th in a list of lifetime pollutants and near the top came some kind of 4x4.... standard steels and they run a couple of times round the clock before they die and often as not they are kept running.
Battery disposal is also an issue."
Embodied energy is trotted out often in this sort of discussion to "prove" one thing is more virtuous than the other. Unless the auto manufacturers are paying a great deal less for their energy than I'm paying for mine, given the prices being charged for the vehicles, simple economics indicates that there's no way that the embodied energy in a vehicle comes close to the amount of energy it consumes during its lifetime.
The Prius has only 20 kg of nickel in its batteries. True, there's more energy in making a kg of nickel than in making a kg of steel, but probably not by more than an order of magnitude- say about the same as the cost of an extra 200 kg of steel. That's roughly the weight difference between most SUVs and the Prius, i.e. the embodied energy of the batteries is moot.
Battery disposal for the Prius is also no problem, as nickel metal hydride batteries are very different in the toxicology department when compared to nickel cadmium batteries or even the ubiquitous lead/acid batteries. Recovering the nickel from these batteries is far easier than recovering it from the ore. Lithium ion batteries are not used in the Prius, but are also not a particular toxicological problem. Lithium supply might be a problem once we have millions of EVs, but that's more a price issue than anything else.
So yes, "the figures are disputed" in that study.
What's put in and what's taken out of the analysis and what assumptions are made can entirely determine the outcome of studies like this. What I'd like to see instead is a carbon tax at the source on all the fuels, regardless whether those fuels are used to make electricity or car parts or to drive the vehicles themselves. Then all you'd need to know is the purchase price and some estimate of what your fuel and maintenance costs will be to determine what makes the most sense to buy.
RE: News from California
If it's free, then it might be worth looking at an electric car. However, if it's not, what is the cost compairson of fuel?
They just made a big deal of installing one of those charging stations here. Although I haven't made the time to see it for myself. If the usage is big, I can't believe it would be free (on the other hand they give away those funny light bulbs for free).
RE: News from California
We have a charging point outside our main entrance and it's always plugged into a vehicle. A bit like having an electric patio heater permanently on.
- Steve
RE: News from California
Maybe some road repairs won't get done, that other wise would. Could be the same with natural gas vehicles.
RE: News from California
Where will you charge?
There are a lot of car owners who do not have off road parking but must on street park where they can find a space.
Unless charging points are installed on street, with meters, then a lot of people just won't be bale to operate an EV.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
MSRP for a Leaf in Canada is about $39,000 + tax. Government subsidy is about $7,500 off that. If that's $39,000 plus tax minus $7,500 PLUS a $200/month battery lease, this isn't a car- it's a rich man's toy. Forget about the cost of electricity- $200/month is more than I pay for gasoline for my Prius, and I'm a long distance commuter. Until those numbers get a lot more favourable, even a die-hard EV fan such as myself won't be buying one.
I'm betting the EV doesn't take off until the Chinese begin mass-producing them. And they will.
RE: News from California
The prospect of the Chinese "Rover" factory producing EVs isn't exactly enthralling.
Rover was part of British Leyland.
What happens when you apply "quality fade", for which Chinese Manufacture is famous, to a Rover....? It doesn't bear thinking about.
Besides, whose design will they copy?
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
Hidden in the cost of petroleum based transportation is that the US is stealing from future generations to wage a semi-permanent global police state action to drive the price of oil down to the margins we see today. As that falls apart in the next decade, our costs for gasoline are going to go way up, and the same comparisons in this thread that seem unfavorable for EV are going to suddenly look very favorable. All y'all laughing at the Chevy Volt owner are going to be begging him to borrow his car when gas goes to $20 a gallon.
I don't know about you guys, but I simply don't see how spending a trillion dollars a year in global police state actions is sustainable.
Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East - http://www.campbellcivil.com
RE: News from California
Pulling a number out of the air, but we'd probably need at least $250 billion to be comfortably safe. So our savings are half a trillion dollars. Also, it will take some time to wind everything down even if the political will existed and there would be an issue with employment.
Regardless, the US budget including defense is unsustainable as you pointed out with our current level of taxation. Guns or butter, as the old saying goes. We have suicidally chosen as a society to spend money on two wars, expand the social safety net, and cut taxes. I don't think even two of these items would be economically feasible, let alone all three.
RE: News from California
The higher price per barrel is what unlocks shale oil etc.
The ongoing demand is what enables genuine cost increases which makes new recovery methods feasible.
The growing size of the market and the higher prices are a necessary part of our path toward energy sufficiency such as fusion power. Fossil fuels are the investment capital that along with population growth (market growth) makes the end goal realisable.
I have serious doubts that we will be able to fund the future if we are forced down side roads and forced, as with coal, to leave the greater part of our fossil fuel capital in the ground.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
God knows why they are excluded from the "congestion charge" in London, more tax exemption, although they still cause as much congestion as all other cars.
- Steve
RE: News from California
He thinks this is how to get rid of Boris.
Worryingly, he is ahead at the moment.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
David
RE: News from California
B.E.
The good engineer does not need to memorize every formula; he just needs to know where he can find them when he needs them. Old professor
RE: News from California
So I assumed the term was well established.
- Steve
RE: News from California
David
RE: News from California
How could they flag it to management?
Why should management fall over?
There are many good reasons for a red flag process but one of the biggest problems in society (not necessarily here, I could not possibly comment on the Eng-Tips policy) is the abuse of such systems where a minority of one can have the power over millions.
'Nuff said.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
(1) I actually thought, if the double meaning was intended, the title was pretty witty and very tongue in cheek. I don't think it was meant to be mean spirited in any way...
(2) ...but it is understandable why it was changed as I'm sure the moderators have rules on certain terms not being used.
(3) As to who would be offended, maybe the same group that California decided would destroy the "sanctity" of marriage if they allowed them to marry? I'm not offended by it but if you put yourselves in their shoes, it would be understandable.
As to the actual topic, I think there are a lot of good points with regards to a lack of foresight in a lot of these decisions. I work for a utility and we (unofficially of course) dread mass EV's on the road in a short period of time because the grid is not designed to accommodate them.
There will be a huge, spread out, increase in demand which will cause the utility to scramble to find a way to satisfy the demand. The solution is usually by the cheapest (dirtiest) power from a neighbour...for an inflated cost of course.
However, if the policy makers work hand-in-hand with utilities to help aid in the transition to heavy EV use, then it could work out. I just don't know if that is happening in California.
The problem is that these decisions have technological, political, economic, sociologic and environmental elements to them. One person (yes, even us omnipotent engineers...but especially politicians) cannot fully understand all of them; you need cross-discipline input.
RE: News from California
which is very generous to politicians.I am not sure they ever even partially understand anything.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
I've been providing gas to public utilities and power plants my whole career, and I've heard some of the same concerns that you mention, but rarely with numbers. I'd love to hear anything you are willing to share about what your industry thinks the sequence of events will be. I see two possible scenarios
(1) upgrade generating capacity; (2) upgrade the distribution network; (3) increase the number of EV.
Or: (1) increase the number of EV; (2) decrease the reliability of the power grid; (3) blame the utilities; (4) increase the number of EV more; (5) start the permitting process for new plants; (6) increase the number of EV even more; (7) build the new plants; (8) increase the number of EV; (8) decrease the reliability of the grid further; (9) start permitting upgrades to the power grid; and finally (10) increase the number of EV).
My gut feeling is that we'll do the second.
David
RE: News from California
haha, yes, I stand corrected.
zdas04,
The two major concerns are how fast EV's gain in popularity and how people charge them.
We are expecting to see about 80,000 EV's by 2030, resulting in 195 GWh increase. This is not an issue for generation because that increase is spread out over 20 years. Another study showed that a 10% switch over from light-duty vehicles to EV's could increase the load by 4.7%. So, if you had a sudden, mass injection of EV's (such as that described in the article) then, yes, it could be a problem for generation capacity. However, the bigger issue is probably distribution and localized brown outs.
The more complicated (and maybe more important) problem is how people will charge them, namely uncontrolled versus smart charging.
Uncontrolled charging means people can plug in whenever they want, into any suitable outlet. Here people will most likely come home after work and plug in their car, during peak hours. This will cause an even greater spike to occur during this time, magnifying the possibility for brown outs. It may also force utilities to turn on higher cost forms (or dirty forms) of generation to meet the spikes. An utility wants nice flat demand profiles so that you can have generating stations running and near optimum levels for the majority of the time. The greater the peaks and valleys, the less efficient your generation is.
On the other hand, smart charging means that charging is regulated to smooth out the demand. This allows utilities to keep plants running at near optimum efficiency and also means that non-controllable renewables, such as wind/solar, can be used to curtail the increase caused by EV's. The result is lower cost to the utility (on a per kW basis) and lower total emissions. However, implementation is much more difficult/costly here.
A study on a fictional utility, with only small amounts of renewable generation, found that the uncontrolled charging strategy would increase the cost of generation (per kW) by 24% while increasing emissions per miles to 284 g/mile. While smart charging would reduce the cost of generation (per kW) by 19% and decrease the emissions per mile of EV's to 220 g/mile. Note an average light-duty vehicle has emits about 412 g/mile and a prius is about 176 g/mile. If the study was changed to a utility with 100% natural gas CCGT plants, the emissions from the EV would be 144 g/mile, and much lower for nuclear, wind, hydro or solar.
However, these numbers would be much different depending on the base load profile for the utility and the method of generation. The true benefit is different location to location; this is an important concept for people to think about when talking about EV's, that often gets overlooked.
For example, the utility I work for is:
- primarily hydro power
- publically owned (low domestic cost/kWh, higher incentive to be a corporate citizen)
- a big exporter of power, which is a huge contributor to our revenues.
So with that in mind, EV's in our area:
- Greatly reduce overall emissions
- Are attractive to local clients due to very low domestic electricity costs (but cold weather climate is a hindrance to EV's)
- Increases are local demand which reduces are exports = reduced revenues, for the same generation (however, with the US economy in the toilet, the cost of electricity has dropped which effects the severity of this reduction and possibly provides more stable revenues)
RE: News from California
Until something upsets the mix.
Superbowl night could be one....
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
B.E.
The good engineer does not need to memorize every formula; he just needs to know where he can find them when he needs them. Old professor
RE: News from California
Thank you for a clear descriptoin of the waterfront. What is g/mile, I'm not familiar with those units?
I actually expect that smart chargers will be the norm, maybe something like when you plug the EV in the charger asks you when you need the car again and then talks to the grid to minimize its contribution to spikes within that window. That technology is not far fetched at all, and seems to have a larger impact than most of the really Buck Rogers stuff people are talking about. Utiliites have been talking about the benefits of level-loading and off-peak demand for at least all of my life.
David
RE: News from California
I know that the negative effect of CO2 is a point of contention but the numbers, relative to eachother, also corrolate to mile/gallon. In otherwords, it paints a good comparative picture of consumption per unit of useful output.
My knowledge of the actually specifics behind the implimentation of smart charging is limited (I work in generation) but I know there is work along the lines of what you said. Maybe implementation is easier than I think.
Either way, if you put the cart (EV's) before the horse (charging system, grid modernization, clean generation) then you could actually have a negative impact on the $/kW (first to generate then later, as a result, to consume), system reliability and environmental impact. With the horse before the cart, the opposite can be true. The extent, as stated before, is very dependent on the local utilities situation.
If you are concerned with the environment and you live in an area powered by renewables, then EV's can make sense. If you live in an area powered by coal, then buy a Prius.
RE: News from California
It makes me sad that you have to say I know why you have to say it, but why can't we engineers just accept an objective measurement as objective without all the damn baggage. Mass of CO2 per mile driven is absolutely a number that can be usefully correlated to relative energy effeciency and there is nothing inherently evil about it--complete combustion results in water, CO2 and heat, why do we keep forgetting that?. That shouldn't be controversial, but the discussion has gotten so strident that we're backing off from talking about CO2 in any context but AGW. That is sad.
David
RE: News from California
If we were concerned at all about CO2, then we must also consiter the CO2 emitted in the manufacture of the steel. In which case driving an old car is more efficent than a new car.
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
I think that is the point, to get to a common denominator. The g/mile number is dependent on fuel chosen, but it is also dependent on vehicle design and driving style. Seems like a more effective measure than $/mile (since the cost of fuel is so variable across the globe) or mpg (since converting that number to apply to an EV is so contaminated with political BS). So if you look at the CO2 exhausted by the power plants (per kW-hr), get the weighted average g/kW from the mix of power plants serving an area then you get a direct (disregarding line losses) comparison of kW used per mile times g/kW to get g/mile.
Going into the CO2 used in steel manufacture seems like it would be about a wash between ICE and EV. CO2 generated in transporting fuel to the end user may or may not be a wash (in some markets virtually all the gasoline and diesel is pipelined to distribution stations that are reasonably close to end-user fueling stations; coal comes in on trains generally--including a transportation component might be useful in differentiating, but I'm not certain of that).
Seems reasonable to me.
David
RE: News from California
And why is $/mile a bad way to compare, other than it changes? If you use the price of fuel on the futures market, at the time frame you are interested in, the values should be good.
RE: News from California
$/mile doesn't work very well because the cost of fuel and power is so heavily manipulated from place to place. In most of Europe fuel taxes make motor fuel at least twice the average U.S. price while in places like Indonesia government policy puts motor fuel prices at a fraction of U.S. prices. Even within a country local prices can vary substantially both from place to place and with time.
David
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
RE: News from California
I completely agree with you; I actually added the comment to avoid it turning into a discussion on the effects of CO2. But in hindsight, all it may have done is bring attention to it.
I intended on saying that no matter whether your primary concern is emissions, the economics or basic efficiency, the unit will, comparatively, tell the same story.
cranky,
emissions/mile, $/mile or kJ/mile are relatively porportionate and shouldn't change the overall conclusion. It's interesting that those three units match up nicely with the three "primary concerns" I said above.
RE: News from California
emissions/mile depend on what you consiter emissions. If you neglect water/steam as emmissions, then carbon fuels have a disadvantage. Not because of the carbon, but because of the method.
One, or two, valid emmissions/mile comparison that would be interesting is SO2 or NOx per mile. Not because of anything other than these may not be related to the fuel, but the fuel source.
I really don't think carbon is a global problem, but inefficency is.
Question: what are the efficencies of different cars at say 5 MPH?
RE: News from California
RE: News from California
John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
http://www.siemens.com/plm
UG/NX Museum: http://www.plmworld.org/p/cm/ld/fid=209
To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.