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short BP
4

short BP

short BP

(OP)
2008 Balance sheet
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=BP+Balance+Sheet&annual

Estimated cost of BP spill (by Valdez standards).

Valdez Data
Clean up     3.8 Billion
Legal        5.0 Billion
Spill Vol    250,000 BBLS
Cost per BBL  35,200 $/BBL
Nobody Killed      0 $
----------------------------
30 days at average of estimated leak rates
5,000 to 100,000 BOPD = 55,000 BOPD
days/month                  30 days
BBLS/mo.             1,575,000 BBLS
Presumed Dead Humans        11
Unknown Collateral Damage    x
----------------------------------------
Cost per day 1989    $ 1,848,000,000
Inflation Factor since 1989 x 1.7893
Cost per day 2010    $ 3,306,626,400
----------------------------------------
Days of spill as of 21 May 2010   31
Total of known damages $ 102.505 BILLION                

From the balance sheet, its obvious not even BP can take any more of this, and nobody knows when it's going to stop.
Looks like it's setting up for a total wipe out at somewhere around -30 Billion.

* Inflation rate from, http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_Rate_Calculator.asp

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.live.com/

RE: short BP

Yet someone (or some machine) continues to buy BP stock.

- Steve Perry

RE: short BP

(OP)
Ya.  Do you remember Greenspan's favorite term, "Irrational exuberance"?  My simple answer to that statement is, people bought Enron, etc. etc. all the way down the track too.  If Enron's numbers were spread out all over the Gulf of Mexico for all to see, it probably would have been a different story.  As it was, maybe even Ken Lay didn't know what the numbers really were.  Here the only BIG unknown is the actual leak rate.  Wanna' bet that somebody knows exactly what it is... well +/- 15%?  Its just a matter of fluid dynamics and running the numbers.... if you had your hands on the well data, you could get a pretty resonable idea of what that rate could be wide open.  I could probably hit it close just by tagging a slow motion of the plume jet... maybe.  Bet someone could do it.  Isn't it a little wierd that they didn't start off with saying 100,000 BOPD (they wouldn't be drilling out there if it didn't have that ultimate capacity) and then tell us some good news when it turned out to only be 52.5?  Just a thought or two.

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.live.com/

RE: short BP

  I'm sure I'm not the only  engineer to have been told early on his career something to the effect " If you cant measure it,  you cant control it".

Someone from BP was quoted recently as saying something to the effect " We cant measure the flow rate". It would have been really amusing to listen to an on-the-ball reporter ( perhaps with an engineering background)  quote that cliche back at BP and await the response

RE: short BP

I can see it now.  Before BP goes under they'll say they didn't know how big the leak was (nobody did, not even the gov't!) and therefore could not say they were going to pay all damages and therefore are limited to the law when the leak occurred.  What was that?  $10,000,000 IIRC.  They waste more than that every month, pre-leak basis.  After all, while the leak was going on they were under duress!

Good luck,
Latexman

RE: short BP

I'm with BigInch, BP knows fully well what the well tested out and can readily estimate the leak rate therefrom.   

RE: short BP

  OK  lets make this interesting. Big Inch suggests somewhere between 5 and 100,000 BOPD and averages it out at 55,000 BOPD.

Lets start an informal group of interested engineers who would be willing to assist BP, the media, the government or the environmental groups in coming up with our best estimates. When BP finally puts out an official number ( not that theres any guarantee it will be an asccurate number) we can see who gets the cigar.

My number is 69,000 BOPD and its not a complete guess but i wouldnt want to stake my proffessional reputation on the calculation either. Any others out there???

RE: short BP

Is this like the Price is Right?  Then I'm going to go with 69,001 BOPD.

- Steve Perry

RE: short BP

Well if we're going to get technical, at what temperature would that 69,001 BOPD  be measaured at??  32 degrees,  70 degrees??  What would be the barometric pressure on the day of measurement and what direction is the wind coming from??

RE: short BP

2
I can't locate the original press release from the Wood's Hole scientists where they offered in the first week to use the same instruments they use to measure flow at all the black smokers in much deeper water.  Here are two tidbits of information referring to the offer.

There is an interesting video from Nat Geo on the sinking of the DWH where towards the end of it just before the water monitor nozzle  moves in if you look close on the left side you can see one hell of a flow of oil.  It's a good thing the riser kinked

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2010/05/15/lesson_from_the_gulf_stop_drilling/

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2010/05/why-bp-wont-measure-the-oil-spill/56848/

RE: short BP

Just a thought:
In project management you very early learn to rank your priorities (time, cost, scope/operability/quality, ...) because that is what you base your decisions on.
What is the ranking of BP's priorities? (get off the headlines, keep the well for future exploitation, stem the leak, ...)
Kind Regards,
hahor
 

RE: short BP

Has anyone read anywhere what the reservoir pressure was before the leak occured?

RE: short BP

Based on an analysis of the fluid velocity out the vent, one of my friends at BP estimated a flowing "wellhead" pressure over 15,000 psig.  That makes reservoir pressure in the neighborhood of 25,000 psig.

People keep saying "why can't they just stick a plug in the pipe?".  It would be much like hanging a plumb bob on the end of a string and trying to force it into the end of an operating power washer.

David

RE: short BP

Ok, well based on a flowing pressure of 15,000 psig I am going to estimate (guess) the leakage rate to be 22,500 BPD.

RE: short BP

They started the "top kill" at 12:00 PM Eastern Time.  No reports yet and the TV feed is still on on the riser leak.

RE: short BP

I keep hearing that BP is the only one that has the technology and equipment needed to  kill this well but if you sort of analyse it BP has nothing really to bring to the table

The rig belongs to Transocean.
The BOP preventer is from Cameron.
The cementing equipment belongs to Haliburton
The ROV"S belong to Oceaneering

According to testimony in Congress BP's contribution has been to use a cheap cement and replace drilling mud with salt water.  There is a also statement that their indecision to hit the BOP switch was made so late that when it was there was no hydraulic power to operate it.  

RE: short BP

(OP)
Change "technology and equipment" to money and you'd abe reading between the lines.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO, BP

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://vir

RE: short BP

Damn, I thought my code was unbreakable.  

RE: short BP

(OP)
You're a Wind Talker?

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO, BP

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://vir

RE: short BP

Flow estimates seem to be "sound bites of the day" for the ABCNNBCBS talking heads - and their "chosen" academic experts.

Rah.

I read everything on TV and the net from 12,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd.

But my calc's for flow velocity seem badly off compared to the very high pressures (22-26 kpsi) above - from readers whose information I trust much more than the TV by the way.

Ignore the 100,000 bpd high number and assume 20,000 bpd.

35,000 gph
1.30 ft3 per second

Assume the 21 inch pipe (wall thickness = ??) has 314 sq inch flow area => get 2.18 ft2
Velocity = 1.30 ft3 per sec/2.18 ft2 = 0.60 ft/sec   

But that seems much too low for the pressures given.

Something I'm missing?  

 

RE: short BP

(OP)
Isn't the actual flowing pipe inside the case a 9" diameter?  I thought I heard that somewhere.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO, BP

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://vir

RE: short BP

The riser is 21" OD, 1" wt (19" ID).  The drill pipe is 6-5/8 OD, 1/2" wt (5-5/8" ID).

No one knows where the drill pipe ends as far as I can tell (there seems to be a lot of confusion about this, they can't tell where the bit was when the elevators stopped due to the explosion).  I would assume that the flow out the end is both annular and drill pipe, and the the flow from the holes in the riser are just annular.

David

RE: short BP

I understand that in all fairness estimated initial oozing out  flow rate might have been  around 20000~25000 bpd ever since the tragic catastrophe.

As liquid entrained un-controlled mixed methane flow images make the estimations wavered.

However with multiple openings/leakage points this may at time go around 30-35000 bpd,but remotely beyond.

The media reported figures of around 85-95000 bpd though seem  somewhat exaggerated.Since accurate judgement very difficult to ascertain from the images,I believe.

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

(OP)
One research ship is taking underwater samples at various depths to try to determine quantity and extents of "plumes".  That may wind up telling more about escaped quantities than actually trying to estimate present flowrates and guessing about what the average might have been since day 1.  Those guesses have been all over the place with many probably having been just thrown out there with considerable self-interests to protect on behalf of all sides.

Until we get a good calculation from the well I can touch, see and eat, I'll go with my estimate from pump capacity at site.  If they can pump up to 80,000 BBLS per day down, well than we should be thinking that 80,000 BBLS could be easily be flowing out.  More or less.  The only variation from that would be via the gas to liquid ratios that perhaps go back and forth from time to time.  I'd just work with the maximums for damage projections, equipment requirements and resulting cleanup response and let the lawyers sort out the actual GTR at some later date.  

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO, BP

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://vir

RE: short BP

Dear BigInch
I honor your conception always as highly valuable and among most accurate one's.

Undoubtedly for considering the environmental pollution and damages this approx. 80000 bpd quantity ma be considered as worthwhile.

I strongly second you indeed

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

what you all forget about is that its not a 21" line, its about a 9 to 11" ID line down hole.  I ran the verticle simulation model and depending on the GOR, the actual oil (oil is defined as those HC chains that are not vapor at 80F and 14.696psi) is no more than 20,000 bbls/day.  More likely to be in the 15,000 bbl/day.

RE: short BP

BP apparently was able to cut the pipe with a hydraulic cutter today, but if they could cut it that way, why couldn't they crimp it closed that way?

TTFN

FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies

RE: short BP

Thank you.

Can we tell why the original attempt at using a "capture envelope" and (later) piping the oil failed?   

Bad bottom conditions (interferences) that prevented it from landing correctly over top of the well head and then sealing to the bottom?    

RE: short BP

Both the riser and the drill pipe are VERY hard steel.  The chance of the pipe crimping shut at the ocean temperature instead of failing spectacularly is very low.  If they were to somehow do that (maybe by heating the pipe first? or some other magical method), the transition of 30°F pipe from 8k psi to over 20k psi in a few seconds would certainly cause brittle failure.

I was curious as to why they didn't cut the riser flange instead of cutting the pipe above the flange.  Seems like that would have been less likely to distort.  I just saw the cut off end and it is pretty ugly (the shear cut is a foot or so above the saw cut and sealing it is going to be fun, it doesn't look nearly as bent up as I expected).

David  

RE: short BP

It was the fog in England ("A bridge too far").

Kind Regards,
hahor

RE: short BP

They supposedly cut as far away from the BOP as possible to give themselves some "error" room, i.e., if that failed, they would still have some usable pipe to work on.  There was still supposedly the option of dropping another BOP on top of the existing one.

TTFN

FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies

RE: short BP

zdas04 (Mechanical)     
26 May 10 12:46
Based on an analysis of the fluid velocity out the vent, one of my friends at BP estimated a flowing "wellhead" pressure over 15,000 psig.  That makes reservoir pressure in the neighborhood of 25,000 psig.

Also: "The riser is 21" OD, 1" wt (19" ID).  The drill pipe is 6-5/8 OD, 1/2" wt (5-5/8" ID)."

---...---...

Based on that, outward force would be =
 3.14/4*(5.625^2) * (15,000 psi) or about  375,000 pounds.
(625,000 lbsf counting reservoir pressure)
"squeeze off" flow, you'd have to counter that net force - though admittedly, you'd be squeezing the flow into an ever-decreasing nozzle-like shape, plus the force to crush 21 inch pipe collapsed, then the force to crush the inner 6 inch pipe to completely collapsed.  
 
But if you squeeze the pipe "almost shut" you still won't have stopped the flow, and now you have nothing available to attach the permanent solution to.   Unless you dig out more unbent pipe from under your collapsed region.   And that "good" pipe has un-isolated oil pressure behind it.

RE: short BP

Simply Great,Dear unclesyd!
 

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

I'm not sure the final cost is linearly proportional to the number of gallons released. There is an upper limit on how much it costs to influence elections, politicians, judges, journalists, and to support a strong legal defense.

Ultimately the decision on the reibursed costs will be a legal/political decision, and such decisions are not neccesarily rational or predictable.

It seems more likely  the company will be spun-off and sold in pieces to competitors long before the legal sut has settled. That spin-off process is great for losing evidence .

RE: short BP

Dear BigInch
How do you consider relevance of my 3rd June post estimations are they now somewhat showing reasonable rationale or what?

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

(OP)
Of course its really hard to say precisely.  My gut feeling is that it was probably close to 60K BOPD at one time, primarily because I counted the number of times Hayward glanced up and to the right during one interview back then.  Then another time, one guy always looked down when he said 5000.  I gave it 10k for each glance, and I really don't think they'd be out there in 5000 ft of water for only $1MM a day anyway.  I'd have thought it would take something more like $ 5MM to get really interested.  20,000 BOPD would be an absolute minimum. OMG.  Isn't it so creepy that 5,000,000 / $75/bbl = 66666.66666666666666666...  Man that can't be no coincidence!

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

(OP)
iTV just says that Cameron is going to try to slap a muzzle on Obama.  Too many pension funds at stake now to sustain that butt-kicking retoric.  This could be the start of some good action.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Close, the new government estimate is 20,000-40,000 bbls/day.  I'm with higher estimate.  

If you go back to the beginning everybody was parroting the line that flow rate was the least of the worries as this number wouldn't help cap the well.  The well still isn't capped and the flow rate has become very important all of sudden as there isn't enough equipment to handle the amount of oil that's out there.  

They have just found oil in Pensacola Bay and running around all over the place.  I don't think anyone is as old as me and can remember that anytime you went through Pns Bay you got oil all over your boat from all the coastal freighters learning cleaning their bilges and correcting the ballast in the bay.  The biggest offender at the time was the training carrier USS Antietam that would dump bunker C by the ton on the outgoing tide. The only thing was that they couldn't tell time and most of it ended up in the bay.  We kept a gallon of Amoco White Gas on the trailer so we could clean the boat as we pulled it.   

RE: short BP

(OP)
Yes, that 40 kbopd would be enough money for one well.  They could supposedly drill quite a few wells from one primary location.  

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Apparaently the heads of a number of other oil giants have castigated bp for its drilling practices.
And now a junior partner in the failed well has this:

Quote:

"The mounting evidence clearly demonstrates that this tragedy was preventable and the direct result of BP's reckless decisions and actions. Frankly, we are shocked by the publicly available information that has been disclosed in recent investigations and during this week's testimony that, among other things, indicates BP operated unsafely and failed to monitor and react to several critical warning signs during the drilling of the Macondo well. BP's behavior and actions likely represent gross negligence or willful misconduct and thus affect the obligations of the parties under the operating agreement" ...

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

RE: short BP

(OP)
Even Shell (they should talk: see Nigeria Delta) has said that they wouldn't have done it the same way.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

BigInch... your initial post on costs/quantity was a month ago to date...

some crystal ball...

RE: short BP

(OP)
Yes, if only I had taken my own advice, you wouldn't be able to reach me right now, or ... probably ever again.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

They do not appear to be any closer to a solution...

Dik

RE: short BP

Solution?
There will never be a solution.
There can never be one.
Oil and water can never be more than a mixture.






Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: short BP

Add a third component mutually miscible and then you can have a solution and which oil some are miscible.  

RE: short BP

(OP)
Just when you thought it could't get worse.
Caps off.  I think they went past my est flowrate now.
And... tropical storms on the rise.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Storm landed in Mexico today.  One down.   ??? to go.

RE: short BP

Agree to Big Inch,
They'll be much above the 80~85000 BPD estimate now.(with no cap or extracting out in-place.

Now we might be heading presumably towards a global level disaster.

since global under currents, may potentially carry polluting oil to almost whole of the oceans-system almost unchecked

Unless& until this well gets intercepted below oozing out area very soon

to successfully cap and seal this at a lower point.

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

The Gulf Stream is somewhere offshore the Florida area.

Dik

RE: short BP

(OP)
Starts in the Carribbean, moves into the southern Gulf, navigates its way between Florida and Cuba then continues up the USA east coast moving farther out, passes east of Iceland before arriving to Ireland and England.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

I know little about the drilling industry; is there a remote possibility that this leak may never be stopped?

Dik

RE: short BP

regarding the initial post - short BP- it looks like rumors of a buyout are inflating the stock price.  

RE: short BP

how do you get 22,000 psi bottomhole?  On the epa website there is a set of data taken before the mishap.  The data shows the shut in pressure below the BOP as 4400 psi.  If they had some heavy mud at say 2.0 gravity, that would add just over 9000 psi to the 4400 psi. or under 15000 psi bottomhole pressure.  There is a well casing diagram and you can model the flow with.  15000 psi to 2500 psi up through a 9" line.  Whip up a feed with 40% nat gas (nat gas with a 75% C1 and componets to C8).

RE: short BP

Back on 11 Jun 10 10:29, I suggested in another thread that this leak may surpass the Itoc blowout. The suggestion was not well accepted. (But, to be fair, the negative voices have since turned positive.)
This week the Globe and Mail reported that the leak may have surpassed the Itoc blowout in terms of the amount oil released.
 

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

RE: short BP

Ok, just don't strain your rotator cuff patting yourself on the back.

RE: short BP

(OP)
waross, never doubted you for second.

dcasto, 26400 ft of soil @ 120 pcf = 22500 psi
pressure on the reservoir

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

A Tiny voice,wild idea was sent by the u/signed few weeks back as my ex-colleague residing in USA asked about "any idea whatsoever" to solve the leakage/spillage issue(s).

I try to put below here for you; experts critique's sake

Quote

My "Wild thought " idea is injecting Crygenic condition Carbon dioxide  Dry Ice under very high pressure deep down through some log tube to protude below the BOP few thousand feet and then release this to frezz the system there.
How to go about this will require some brain storming but there is no risk(s) of any fires or other issues I understand and success possibilities are there.and may be achievable

Unquote

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

... and from the BBC, "The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has so far cost BP a total of $3.12bn (£2bn), the company has said.

The total includes the cost of containing the spill and cleaning up the oil, and the cost of drilling relief wells."

RE: short BP

(OP)
The oil that they've found.

Have they admitted to "plumes" yet?  They have been denying the existance of those.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

I understand that plumes have been spotted/identified, but no reference from BP.  I also don't know about how long it takes for current disbursed oil to travel a mile to the surface... is it a matter of days or months?

Dik

RE: short BP

(OP)
Some oils have a density almost near water, those would be never.  I think this is lighter, so theoretically it would reach the surface someday, "in a still tank".  Currents could displace the eventual surfacing point considerably for slow risers.  See "Stokes' settling velocity theory" for the basics.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Dear BigInch,As always I admire your conceptual clarity and great knowledge,professional expertise wealth.

I will add my little bit;
(1)as observed 'LPG' forms fairly stable hydrates in certain atmospheric conditions with humidity(I witnessed these on a few occasions)

Now in such huge depths under sea water's immense pressures complex behavior might be exhibited by the crude-gas admixture stream(s)
Their oozing out jet(s) might be inducing sea water to create special "unknown nature" yet fairly stable hydrated plume(s) with gravity value(s)slightly higher or almost equivalent to the surrounding sea water.

This is what my "wild" envisaging tells me as the basis of those ultra huge size plume(s)witnessed sub sea and may subsequently dissociate to release oil& gas from physical bondage with water.
(2) I do consider this a real probability since it is almost established fact that vast reserves of methane hydrates are seen/quoted to be present at ocean bed in huge depth under sea water;this gives me the logical/scientific rationale as well.
Forum Giants may guide/comment further    

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

(OP)
The USGS has various hydrate near-mudline deposit explotation studies in progress.  There's supposed to be vast quantities of the stuff in the deeper colder waters off the US' NE coast as I recall.  Some also say, that when they become unstable and float up to the surface, they could be responsible for the strange ship sinkings in calm weather and other disappearences ascribed to the "Bermuda Triangle".

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Nice Info update, thanks indeed!

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

(OP)
Something to think about anyway.

They say as the gas breaks out from the hydrate as it warms in higher water layers as it rises, the sea water in a localized area might reduce in density enough that it no longer provides sufficient buoyancy to float a ship.  I don't know how that applies to the aircraft that have disappeared there, but it could explain the ships.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

"I don't know how that applies to the aircraft "

Big gas bubble displacing air, low flying plane enters the cloud and engines immediately quit, possibly pilot asphyxiated as well.  It's a theory, at least.

RE: short BP

(OP)
Works for me, except the pilot has O2 and finds out about reduced buoyancy and possibly more hydrates the hard way.

Probably time for this thread to end, wouldn't you say?

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying."  Tony Hayward CEO BP
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermitfrog http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco

http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv

RE: short BP

Didn't Myth Busters do a methane will stop an aircraft engine show once. I remember that someone did. If the methane displaces enough oxygen, the engine stops.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

RE: short BP

Interesting discussion seems carrying reasonable value towards resolving "Bermuda Triangle" Myths in some way!

Just a layman's query,has this anything to do with the local extreme gravitational forces labeled as involved; or it's just a myth.

Having said that, Just a point to ponder,whether this gravitational pull has any relationship to help or make difficult "oozing out gusher issue resolution"?

Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)

RE: short BP

Local gravity just seems higher on a tropical beach.  Alcohol plays a factor too.  Don't believe it?  Try getting out of a beach chair there...

RE: short BP

Update about latest plug:

This from

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/15/bp-says-gulf-oil-spill-has-been-stopped/

" Phil says:
July 15, 2010 at 8:09 pm

@kirkmyers says:
July 15, 2010 at 7:03 pm

"Many experts worry that the well casing below has been compromised. If so, the cap could result in a subsurface blowout, jettisoning oil through the ocean floor. They are monitoring pressure to ensure that the well stays at 8,000 psi or higher for 48 hours. This isn't over by a long shot."

According to http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6733#comment-677659, they were expecting about 9,000 psi but only reached about 6,700 psi. It was expected to go a little higher to maybe top out at about 7,000 psi, which may be inconclusive. The lower pressure may indicate a leak in the borehole or it may indicate that the formation has been depleted somewhat by running uncontrolled for so long and the reservoir pressure is no longer the 11,900 psi or so that was originally measured. The good news is that the cap is exceeding the 3,000 psi to 4,000 psi needed to help balance the relief well when the bottom kill is attempted. The relief well is about 5,000 feet higher than the Macondo well, because the mud would be pumped into the relief well from a rig floating at sea level and the Macondo well BOP is at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico."

OilDrum web site appears to be continually updating their info.   See

http://www.theoildrum.com


 

RE: short BP

from the BBC, "BP says drilling mud pumped into its ruptured Gulf of Mexico well is holding the oil down, a major step towards permanently sealing it."

Dik

RE: short BP

... and from the BBC, "The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion has so far cost BP a total of $6.1bn ($3.8bn), the company has said.

The total includes the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, and cementing up of the damaged well."

RE: short BP

Both Modules (Hyd) have been recovered and according to several knowledgeable eyewitnesses they are junk.  

Anything recovered is immediately covered and considered off limits to anyone on the floor. Aside the actual mechanics of operating the deck operations are controlled by lawyers.    

RE: short BP

...and from the BBC, "Investigators may be able to determine why a blowout preventer failed to stop the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill more than four months ago as they get a close-up view of the key piece of equipment for the first time.

A crewman guided a crane Saturday to hoist the 15-metre, 305-tonne blowout preventer from 1.6 kilometres beneath the sea to the surface. It took about 29½ hours for the equipment to reach the surface of the Gulf at 7:54 p.m. ET.

FBI agents were among the 137 people aboard the Helix Q4000 vessel, waiting to escort the device to a NASA facility in Louisiana for analysis.


Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/09/04/blowout-preventer-gulf.html#ixzz0ycpJPTBo"

Dik

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