short BP
short BP
(OP)
2008 Balance sheet
http://fi nance.yaho o.com/q/bs ?s=BP+Bala nce+Sheet& amp;annual
Estimated cost of BP spill (by Valdez standards).
Valdez Data
Clean up 3.8 Billion
Legal 5.0 Billion
Spill Vol 250,000 BBLS
Cost per BBL 35,200 $/BBL
Nobody Killed 0 $
----------------------------
30 days at average of estimated leak rates
5,000 to 100,000 BOPD = 55,000 BOPD
days/month 30 days
BBLS/mo. 1,575,000 BBLS
Presumed Dead Humans 11
Unknown Collateral Damage x
----------------------------------------
Cost per day 1989 $ 1,848,000,000
Inflation Factor since 1989 x 1.7893
Cost per day 2010 $ 3,306,626,400
----------------------------------------
Days of spill as of 21 May 2010 31
Total of known damages $ 102.505 BILLION
From the balance sheet, its obvious not even BP can take any more of this, and nobody knows when it's going to stop.
Looks like it's setting up for a total wipe out at somewhere around -30 Billion.
* Inflation rate from, http://www .inflation data.com/i nflation/I nflation_C alculators /Inflation _Rate_Calc ulator.asp
http://fi
Estimated cost of BP spill (by Valdez standards).
Valdez Data
Clean up 3.8 Billion
Legal 5.0 Billion
Spill Vol 250,000 BBLS
Cost per BBL 35,200 $/BBL
Nobody Killed 0 $
----------------------------
30 days at average of estimated leak rates
5,000 to 100,000 BOPD = 55,000 BOPD
days/month 30 days
BBLS/mo. 1,575,000 BBLS
Presumed Dead Humans 11
Unknown Collateral Damage x
----------------------------------------
Cost per day 1989 $ 1,848,000,000
Inflation Factor since 1989 x 1.7893
Cost per day 2010 $ 3,306,626,400
----------------------------------------
Days of spill as of 21 May 2010 31
Total of known damages $ 102.505 BILLION
From the balance sheet, its obvious not even BP can take any more of this, and nobody knows when it's going to stop.
Looks like it's setting up for a total wipe out at somewhere around -30 Billion.
* Inflation rate from, http://www
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.live.com/





RE: short BP
- Steve Perry
RE: short BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.live.com/
RE: short BP
Someone from BP was quoted recently as saying something to the effect " We cant measure the flow rate". It would have been really amusing to listen to an on-the-ball reporter ( perhaps with an engineering background) quote that cliche back at BP and await the response
RE: short BP
Good luck,
Latexman
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
Lets start an informal group of interested engineers who would be willing to assist BP, the media, the government or the environmental groups in coming up with our best estimates. When BP finally puts out an official number ( not that theres any guarantee it will be an asccurate number) we can see who gets the cigar.
My number is 69,000 BOPD and its not a complete guess but i wouldnt want to stake my proffessional reputation on the calculation either. Any others out there???
RE: short BP
- Steve Perry
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
There is an interesting video from Nat Geo on the sinking of the DWH where towards the end of it just before the water monitor nozzle moves in if you look close on the left side you can see one hell of a flow of oil. It's a good thing the riser kinked
ht
h
RE: short BP
http://gl
Steve Jones
Materials & Corrosion Engineer
http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/cv/11499664
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/8/83b/b04
RE: short BP
In project management you very early learn to rank your priorities (time, cost, scope/operability/quality, ...) because that is what you base your decisions on.
What is the ranking of BP's priorities? (get off the headlines, keep the well for future exploitation, stem the leak, ...)
Kind Regards,
hahor
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
People keep saying "why can't they just stick a plug in the pipe?". It would be much like hanging a plumb bob on the end of a string and trying to force it into the end of an operating power washer.
David
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.live.com/
RE: short BP
The rig belongs to Transocean.
The BOP preventer is from Cameron.
The cementing equipment belongs to Haliburton
The ROV"S belong to Oceaneering
According to testimony in Congress BP's contribution has been to use a cheap cement and replace drilling mud with salt water. There is a also statement that their indecision to hit the BOP switch was made so late that when it was there was no hydraulic power to operate it.
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO, BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://vir
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO, BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://vir
RE: short BP
Rah.
I read everything on TV and the net from 12,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd.
But my calc's for flow velocity seem badly off compared to the very high pressures (22-26 kpsi) above - from readers whose information I trust much more than the TV by the way.
Ignore the 100,000 bpd high number and assume 20,000 bpd.
35,000 gph
1.30 ft3 per second
Assume the 21 inch pipe (wall thickness = ??) has 314 sq inch flow area => get 2.18 ft2
Velocity = 1.30 ft3 per sec/2.18 ft2 = 0.60 ft/sec
But that seems much too low for the pressures given.
Something I'm missing?
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO, BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://vir
RE: short BP
No one knows where the drill pipe ends as far as I can tell (there seems to be a lot of confusion about this, they can't tell where the bit was when the elevators stopped due to the explosion). I would assume that the flow out the end is both annular and drill pipe, and the the flow from the holes in the riser are just annular.
David
RE: short BP
As liquid entrained un-controlled mixed methane flow images make the estimations wavered.
However with multiple openings/leakage points this may at time go around 30-35000 bpd,but remotely beyond.
The media reported figures of around 85-95000 bpd though seem somewhat exaggerated.Since accurate judgement very difficult to ascertain from the images,I believe.
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
Until we get a good calculation from the well I can touch, see and eat, I'll go with my estimate from pump capacity at site. If they can pump up to 80,000 BBLS per day down, well than we should be thinking that 80,000 BBLS could be easily be flowing out. More or less. The only variation from that would be via the gas to liquid ratios that perhaps go back and forth from time to time. I'd just work with the maximums for damage projections, equipment requirements and resulting cleanup response and let the lawyers sort out the actual GTR at some later date.
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO, BP
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
http://vir
RE: short BP
I honor your conception always as highly valuable and among most accurate one's.
Undoubtedly for considering the environmental pollution and damages this approx. 80000 bpd quantity ma be considered as worthwhile.
I strongly second you indeed
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
TTFN
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies
RE: short BP
Can we tell why the original attempt at using a "capture envelope" and (later) piping the oil failed?
Bad bottom conditions (interferences) that prevented it from landing correctly over top of the well head and then sealing to the bottom?
RE: short BP
I was curious as to why they didn't cut the riser flange instead of cutting the pipe above the flange. Seems like that would have been less likely to distort. I just saw the cut off end and it is pretty ugly (the shear cut is a foot or so above the saw cut and sealing it is going to be fun, it doesn't look nearly as bent up as I expected).
David
RE: short BP
Kind Regards,
hahor
RE: short BP
TTFN
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies
RE: short BP
26 May 10 12:46
Based on an analysis of the fluid velocity out the vent, one of my friends at BP estimated a flowing "wellhead" pressure over 15,000 psig. That makes reservoir pressure in the neighborhood of 25,000 psig.
Also: "The riser is 21" OD, 1" wt (19" ID). The drill pipe is 6-5/8 OD, 1/2" wt (5-5/8" ID)."
---...---...
Based on that, outward force would be =
3.14/4*(5.625^2) * (15,000 psi) or about 375,000 pounds.
(625,000 lbsf counting reservoir pressure)
"squeeze off" flow, you'd have to counter that net force - though admittedly, you'd be squeezing the flow into an ever-decreasing nozzle-like shape, plus the force to crush 21 inch pipe collapsed, then the force to crush the inner 6 inch pipe to completely collapsed.
But if you squeeze the pipe "almost shut" you still won't have stopped the flow, and now you have nothing available to attach the permanent solution to. Unless you dig out more unbent pipe from under your collapsed region. And that "good" pipe has un-isolated oil pressure behind it.
RE: short BP
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6554#comment-638720
RE: short BP
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
Ultimately the decision on the reibursed costs will be a legal/political decision, and such decisions are not neccesarily rational or predictable.
It seems more likely the company will be spun-off and sold in pieces to competitors long before the legal sut has settled. That spin-off process is great for losing evidence .
RE: short BP
How do you consider relevance of my 3rd June post estimations are they now somewhat showing reasonable rationale or what?
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
If you go back to the beginning everybody was parroting the line that flow rate was the least of the worries as this number wouldn't help cap the well. The well still isn't capped and the flow rate has become very important all of sudden as there isn't enough equipment to handle the amount of oil that's out there.
They have just found oil in Pensacola Bay and running around all over the place. I don't think anyone is as old as me and can remember that anytime you went through Pns Bay you got oil all over your boat from all the coastal freighters learning cleaning their bilges and correcting the ballast in the bay. The biggest offender at the time was the training carrier USS Antietam that would dump bunker C by the ton on the outgoing tide. The only thing was that they couldn't tell time and most of it ended up in the bay. We kept a gallon of Amoco White Gas on the trailer so we could clean the boat as we pulled it.
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
http
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
And now a junior partner in the failed well has this:
Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
some crystal ball...
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Dik
RE: short BP
There will never be a solution.
There can never be one.
Oil and water can never be more than a mixture.
Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
Caps off. I think they went past my est flowrate now.
And... tropical storms on the rise.
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
They'll be much above the 80~85000 BPD estimate now.(with no cap or extracting out in-place.
Now we might be heading presumably towards a global level disaster.
since global under currents, may potentially carry polluting oil to almost whole of the oceans-system almost unchecked
Unless& until this well gets intercepted below oozing out area very soon
to successfully cap and seal this at a lower point.
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Dik
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Dik
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
http://
What are the risks to not seal the well?
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
This week the Globe and Mail reported that the leak may have surpassed the Itoc blowout in terms of the amount oil released.
Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
dcasto, 26400 ft of soil @ 120 pcf = 22500 psi
pressure on the reservoir
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
I try to put below here for you; experts critique's sake
Quote
My "Wild thought " idea is injecting Crygenic condition Carbon dioxide Dry Ice under very high pressure deep down through some log tube to protude below the BOP few thousand feet and then release this to frezz the system there.
How to go about this will require some brain storming but there is no risk(s) of any fires or other issues I understand and success possibilities are there.and may be achievable
Unquote
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
The total includes the cost of containing the spill and cleaning up the oil, and the cost of drilling relief wells."
RE: short BP
Have they admitted to "plumes" yet? They have been denying the existance of those.
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Dik
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
I will add my little bit;
(1)as observed 'LPG' forms fairly stable hydrates in certain atmospheric conditions with humidity(I witnessed these on a few occasions)
Now in such huge depths under sea water's immense pressures complex behavior might be exhibited by the crude-gas admixture stream(s)
Their oozing out jet(s) might be inducing sea water to create special "unknown nature" yet fairly stable hydrated plume(s) with gravity value(s)slightly higher or almost equivalent to the surrounding sea water.
This is what my "wild" envisaging tells me as the basis of those ultra huge size plume(s)witnessed sub sea and may subsequently dissociate to release oil& gas from physical bondage with water.
(2) I do consider this a real probability since it is almost established fact that vast reserves of methane hydrates are seen/quoted to be present at ocean bed in huge depth under sea water;this gives me the logical/scientific rationale as well.
Forum Giants may guide/comment further
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
They say as the gas breaks out from the hydrate as it warms in higher water layers as it rises, the sea water in a localized area might reduce in density enough that it no longer provides sufficient buoyancy to float a ship. I don't know how that applies to the aircraft that have disappeared there, but it could explain the ships.
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Big gas bubble displacing air, low flying plane enters the cloud and engines immediately quit, possibly pilot asphyxiated as well. It's a theory, at least.
RE: short BP
Probably time for this thread to end, wouldn't you say?
"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO BP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
"Being GREEN isn't easy." Kermit
http://virtualpipeline.spaces.liv
RE: short BP
Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter
RE: short BP
Just a layman's query,has this anything to do with the local extreme gravitational forces labeled as involved; or it's just a myth.
Having said that, Just a point to ponder,whether this gravitational pull has any relationship to help or make difficult "oozing out gusher issue resolution"?
Best Regards
Qalander(Chem)
RE: short BP
RE: short BP
This from
http://w
" Phil says:
July 15, 2010 at 8:09 pm
@kirkmyers says:
July 15, 2010 at 7:03 pm
"Many experts worry that the well casing below has been compromised. If so, the cap could result in a subsurface blowout, jettisoning oil through the ocean floor. They are monitoring pressure to ensure that the well stays at 8,000 psi or higher for 48 hours. This isn't over by a long shot."
According to http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6733#comment-677659, they were expecting about 9,000 psi but only reached about 6,700 psi. It was expected to go a little higher to maybe top out at about 7,000 psi, which may be inconclusive. The lower pressure may indicate a leak in the borehole or it may indicate that the formation has been depleted somewhat by running uncontrolled for so long and the reservoir pressure is no longer the 11,900 psi or so that was originally measured. The good news is that the cap is exceeding the 3,000 psi to 4,000 psi needed to help balance the relief well when the bottom kill is attempted. The relief well is about 5,000 feet higher than the Macondo well, because the mud would be pumped into the relief well from a rig floating at sea level and the Macondo well BOP is at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico."
OilDrum web site appears to be continually updating their info. See
http://www.theoildrum.com
RE: short BP
Dik
RE: short BP
The total includes the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, and cementing up of the damaged well."
RE: short BP
Anything recovered is immediately covered and considered off limits to anyone on the floor. Aside the actual mechanics of operating the deck operations are controlled by lawyers.
RE: short BP
A crewman guided a crane Saturday to hoist the 15-metre, 305-tonne blowout preventer from 1.6 kilometres beneath the sea to the surface. It took about 29½ hours for the equipment to reach the surface of the Gulf at 7:54 p.m. ET.
FBI agents were among the 137 people aboard the Helix Q4000 vessel, waiting to escort the device to a NASA facility in Louisiana for analysis.
Read more: ht
Dik