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The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

(OP)
I've always been in love with the combustion engine, as probably most of the men and women in this forum (maybe even on the planet).  I'm a BSME with an interest in returning for an MS, but unsure of the focus.

A few years back I called an old professor asking if he had any upcoming open opportunities in his field of research (the study of combustion and mechanics and how they related to the combustion engine in particular).  He told me that indeed his research assistant was finishing his degree the end of that particular semester, but his funding was cut such that he wasn't going to be able to continue the following year with another assistanceship.  I don't know what happened after that.

Where do you all feel the industry is going in regards to the combustion engine as a consumer power source?  Is there any REAL value in hybrid or electric technology vs. combustion engine design mindful of efficiency (both fuel and power delivery in combination).  Technology like catalysts, fuel injection, computer-controlled throttle, valve/cam and ignition timing, etc. all seem to have made  leaps and bounds in efficient power generation over the past 20 years.  Lately the improvements have been particularly amazing...a mid-sized SUV that can get 30+ mpg highway?!  Some of power of modern V-6 engines?!  The reliability of turbo and supercharged engines?!  Wow!

I would love to be in this arena, but is there a future?

--------------------------------
Fitter, happier, more productive

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

My career is very bright and exciting.  I don't lose sleep that it will go the way of the Dodo, at least within my working lifetime.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Regardless of what politicians and environmentalists want.  The internal combustion engine (by necessity) will be here for a very long time.

So far, it is unmatched in its convenience, cost, simplicity , weight and power density.

 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

The ICE may exist perpetually. Fuels are just a form of energy storage, not energy, so although we may back off of crude oil as our energy source we may produce fuels long after that (algae-based diesel looks like a contender).

We've tweaked the ICE to have very good efficiency at the final source, and anything else will have to compete with our extensive knowledge and reliability that we've built up over 100+ years of using them. It may well be that electrical takes over in some areas, e.g. in crowded areas to reduce smog etc., but even that won't be for 25-50 years. I think the ICE has at least 75-100 years left, and probably will last much longer than that.

There is REAL value in hybrids and electrics, but they all have their sweet spots in terms of ideal operations and duty cycles, and their own drawbacks. Electrics are severely limited by the total on-board energy storage, hybrids are limited by the length of time they can output peak power, since they run into their non-combustion energy storage limit during sustained high power output situations.

There is far more than a career-length of interesting stuff left in any of the areas you mentioned, so you should just follow what you like to do.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

BigTank,

The combustion engine will be the prime mover of choice for automotive applications for several decades to come.  Hydrofluoric summed up the reasons nicely.  Market forces will mostly determine what powers our cars, but government regulations will also continue to have a greater impact going forward.

By all means, continue with your education as long as your circumstances permit.  Try to become familiar with as many aspects of engine design as possible, such as controls, simulation, mechanical design, fluid dynamics, heat transfer, tribology, kinematics, combustion kinetics, metallurgy, etc.  

Also, try to spend some time interning with companies that manufacture engines.  Your classroom and lab work will give you knowledge about the technical issues of engine design,  but working around an engine production line will help you  understand how to design an engine that is also cost effective and profitable to manufacture.  

As an engineer with a strong technical background, as well as a good understanding of what it takes to manufacture a quality production engine, you will never have a problem finding excellent paying work.

Best of luck to you.
Terry

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

And chemistry.

- Steve

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Perhaps the question is not 'whether the ICE' but 'where the ICE'.  Adding a foreign language to the curriculum and willingness to relocate perhaps deserve consideration . . .

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

ICE ? ICE may stay, but not in automotive apps, turbines and jets are ICE as well, and that is where they will stay. The powers to be don't want them in cars and trucks.
And besides there are better more effcient power sources.  

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Trucks and probably agricultural tractors are both automotive and they'll stay with IC.

Turbines are too inefficient.

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Ineffcient, I fully agree.
Trucks and Ag machines owners won't be able to afford the taxes if they retain the same sort of prime movers. I forsee burning of any sort of fuel will be pretty much banned, for personal, commercial or other wise well unless its for education or antique demonstrations.  
 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

What do you see as a more "efficient" alternative to the ICE then?

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

After looking at the Ecoboost 2010 Ford SHO Taurus last week with the direct injected turbo six....Absolutely NOT the end of the line for internal combustion engines.  Not even!

I love that fuel pressure. A leak won't take long to find...

Rod

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Contemporary Diesel engines operate with injection pressures 10X that of direct-injected gasoline systems (2000 vs 200 bar) and have for about a decade or more.  Leakage has not been a problem.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

(OP)
i'm w/ TDI...and i'm betting we know these things for the same reason, judging by his name...but VW has had a direct-injected gasoline engine on the market for a couple of model years now in the states, and longer in europe.  same goes for BMW, i believe.

the fuel pressure was never a problem, as is indicated by the popularity of diesel engines.  detonation supression technologies and the lack thereof are what kept the direct-injected gasoline engines from consumers for awhile, if i understand correctly, that is.

--------------------------------
Fitter, happier, more productive

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Gents, I believe evelrod was making a joke winky smile

www.auto-scape.com

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

I just gotta be more subtle with my humor.....


Rod

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

My 2 cents (as an infrequent poster)

All passcar OEM's are looking to migrate to EV's in the long term, but the cost of high energy density battery storage will remain high for the foreseeable future and range anxiety from the consumer is likely to limit take up of these (by definition) expensive vehicles.
In the interim, mild to dominant hybrids and range extended vehicles are likely to become a lot more prevalent. Of interest to BigTank may be that designing and operating conventional IC engines for these applications but with minimum cost/best BSFC is still not well understood.
The likely migration of conventional IC engines to limited speed/load generators (APU's) operating in unconventional engine cycles and under some very strange duty cycles, but still at minimum cost is going to keep engine engineers in employment for many years to come.....

Anyone fancy discussing novel architectures for dominant hybrids/APU's?

 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Toyota roadmap to sustainable mobility 2008.
Renault Powertrain Strategy (Goldman Sachs) 2009.
TNO report for the EU showing requirement to move to hybrids to meet EU CO2 legislation (Oct 2006).
UK King reports for the All Party Parliamentary Motor Group.

These are public domain. There are many others out there.

Long term EV migration (inc dominance of PHEV) may not actually happen, but that's where the investment is currently focused . The trade mags (SAE AEI, ATZ, MTZ etc) show how much money is being thrown at EV powertrain systems.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

All doesn't mean some. eg

BMW - hydrogen IC
Honda - hydrogen fuel cell

I would guess that most companies don't know what will happen, and have fingers in many pies. I think there is a case for EVs, but in 20 years there is time for any sort of strange development to occur. In 20 years time the fleet will still be 50% gasoline according to a study I vaguely misremember.
 

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies  http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

50% ?  I would put money on closer to 75% ! Perhaps more?
  
Twenty years is not all that long.

No bullet trains, no hover cars.  No mass move to EV's except in major metro areas, absent any BIG breakthrough in technology...I mean a breakthrough NOW!

Twenty years is not all that long.

Rod

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

I was reading a report the other day about future trends in the auto business.  The subject of EVs was touched upon.  One comment went something like:

OEMs feel obliged to develop EVs, because their customers seem to think they want them.
 

- Steve

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Since IC engines also run on methane and ammonia and since there doesn't seem to be shortage of natural gas, gasified coal/wood, biogas or ammonia anytime soon, it's doubtful IC engines will disappear anytime soon.
http://www.ammoniafuelnetwork.org/

Also, (besides being necessary in trucks, tractors and commercial ships), reciprocating engines have become increasingly popular in the power market:
http://www.dieselgasturbine.com/pdf/power_2008.pdf
As opposed to large power plants they are not only more flexible, they can also sell their heat and can reach a combined efficiency of over 90%:
http://www.cat.com/cda/files/698811/7/CPGS_Bramming.pdf
 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

I can see electric cars possibly matching IC cars in power, endurance, weight etc. etc. because with modern lipo batteries they already match (or even surpass) the performance of the IC types in the model world - planes, helicopters, cars etc.
However I can't see them ever being really practical because of the recharge time - I think people want to be able to refuel/recharge once a week in 5 or 10 minutes - not 6 to 8 hours every day. It is also hard to imagine a power supply grid capable of recharging every vehicle once a week in 5 or 10 minutes.
  I think the IC engine (in some form) is here to stay for a long time yet.    

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Well, no cell phone charges in 5 minutes and yet people use them anyway without exchanging batteries.

 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

It's a tad different to "run out of juice" on a cell phone and a automobile half way between Palm Springs and LA, is it not?

What I meant when I posted the part about needing tech advance tomorrow  (if not sooner?), is the need for some affordable power source, batt, fuel cell, whatever, that can power up the EV in a moderate time and provide a range of several hundred miles.  Out here in the west, that can mean at least 400+ miles.  As it stands, that is just not possible and, even if it were, even if the technology to build a power source capable of such mileage were available today, it would be decades before it could become "mainstream".

The IC engine, in some form, will be with us for much longer than just 20 years (for me, 20 years ago was like last week!!!), probably at least the next 100.

Rod

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

"Twenty years is not all that long.
. . .
Twenty years is not all that long."

Well that gets me thinking- 1990 we already had EFI and ECUs pretty much standard.  Maybe electronic transmission control starting to surface?  Anyway, lots of refinement since then but maybe as Rod argues not much 'paradigm shifting' going on.  But jump back to '70 in the pre oil crisis/tetraethyl lead days and autos start looking considerably more 'primitive' in terms of both design and overall performance.  Maybe it depends which 20 years one is talking about?

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Vehicle LiIon batteries (currently) 100-150Wh/Kg,
Gasoline ~12,000Wh/Kg.
It's going to take a lot of batteries to get a 400mile range....

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

evelrod,
of course it is and that's why plug-in hybrids have an range-extending IC-engine and that's why EVs will mostly be used on short commutes.
What I was trying to say: If these vehicles won't sell, it's not because people are too lazy to plug them in overnight...
 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Not to mention the cost of Li Ion batteries.  They need to come down by a factor of 4 which is highly unlikely.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

And the volume of batteries required:

Gasoline ~9,100Wh/L
LiIon ~320-250Wh/L

And the extra weight/volume of batteries pushes up the vehicle size, which reduces the range etc etc.

 

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

I'd put my money on Exxon-Mobil's bid to develop designer fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet A, etc) from algae. You can run your 57 Chevy on it,and your 31 Packard,and any Prius as well.

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Watched "60 minutes" last night (during the ENDLESS commercials on NBC's coverage (?) of the Olympics).  
Even if this power cell technology comes through,
even if it is totally as depicted,
even if the car companies and, of course, Exxon/etc., can come to agreement,
even then it will take decades to perfect and longer to replace the ICE!

Gave up on all the crap on NBC and watched the new Star Trek again...love the part with the Vette...

Rod

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

Anyone want one of those EV's here where the temperature drops below 0?

Kind of like those who think Mass Transit is the answer......... Will work splendidly for part of the country, but what about the rest of us?

RE: The future of the combustion engine-OP ED

One major problem with the EV is the cost of what substitutes for the the long cord. The 18650's cost is close to bottom. Compare the cost today with what it was in 2000. Check out 5.3 to begin.

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