Perception of risk
Perception of risk
(OP)
Not trying to ressurect a thread but readers of
thread 730-226965 (Scares - taking science out of proportion) may be interested in the following
ht tp://www.a mazon.co.u k/Risk-Sci ence-Polit ics-Dan-Ga rdner/dp/0 753515539/ ref=sr_1_1 ?ie=UTF8&a mp;s=books &qid=1 241781120& amp;sr=1-1
which is a look at the way the brain processes "gut feeling" vs rational thoughts! It also retreads some of the "scare" material but it makes interesting reading.
Regards, HM
thread 730-226965 (Scares - taking science out of proportion) may be interested in the following
ht
which is a look at the way the brain processes "gut feeling" vs rational thoughts! It also retreads some of the "scare" material but it makes interesting reading.
Regards, HM
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam





RE: Perception of risk
Of course, risk is simply severity times frequency. Politics over-emphasizes severity and de-emphasizes frequency.
How is it that we tolerate over 35,000 highway fatalities?
There might be some justification for this. A high severity low frequency event is usually very unpredictable - the margin of error is very high. Unpredictability is most feared.
RE: Perception of risk
One of the examples that the book considers is the example of the aftermath of the September 11th / twin towers - many people decided that driving must be safer than flying - and illustrates that more than a thousand more people were killed because of this perception translated into reality.
The author talks quite a bit about how the public is affected by the media focus on extreme consequences without any balanced focus on frequency - leading us "all" to believe that the next disaster is not only likely but that we will be affected.
I spend quite a bit of time at work looking at risks but i still learned a few things from this book. The info about how the brain processes information is fascinating / weird!
Regards, HM
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam
RE: Perception of risk
I think if we actually risk assessed driving the same way we do on projects then cars and driving would be very different.
I mean what would you say if I said to you I was going to put you inside a large chunk of metal weighting two tonnes, accelerate that object to 60mph, and aim it a couple of metres to the side of a similar sized object coming the other way, with only a white line to separate them?
RE: Perception of risk
I cycle daily through one of those laybys that seems to offer a short cut past the queueing traffic. White vans steam through it (yellow sports cars stop and the drivers investigate the undergrowth for some reason). These people are simply adding risk for little reward (the van drivers, not the others).
- Steve
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
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If we learn from our mistakes I'm getting a great education!
RE: Perception of risk
ornerynorsk, the book trys to educate as to WHY the world seems to be becoming such a fearful place, namely because the people in government / media / standards bodies are human too...and their perceptions of risk are moulded in a feedback loop to swamp their rational brain.
The issue of how litigious society is becoming is another post!
Regards, HM
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam
RE: Perception of risk
Ultimately, the failure to define acceptable risk is the cause of excessive over-legislation which imposes a huge financial burden on manufacturing - and under-legislation that leads to high mortality and morbidity rates in other areas of our lives.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
some mondays i can't string two words together until a reasonable amount of caffeine is in my bloodstream...
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam
RE: Perception of risk
So I can be incredibly stupid all on my own, without any help from the government or the media, would this book help me understand why?
RE: Perception of risk
I've been not playing since the start. On average my returns are 2x the average player.
- Steve
RE: Perception of risk
Some prople can and do make decisions without all the facts.
Fewer people can't make decisions until they have all the facts.
And still some people can't make decisions reguardless of all the facts.
So it seems most people make decisions based on how much control they have, and how they feel. And because of positive reinforcment they believe they are great.
So what's the risk, I'm driving.
RE: Perception of risk
cranky108 - that's kind of how i felt before i read the book but there were a few surprises in there...e.g. the author discusses how psychologists have shown that we can be asked two unrelated questions, the answer to the first (a high or a low number) WILL influence the answer to the second despite the fact that they are unrelated. Apparently this is exploited by marketing and advertising people in a big way.
They have an example where shoppers were shown a sign saying something like you could only buy 12 cans of soup under a particular offer, shoppers regularly bought 4-6 cans...without the sign they bought 1-2. Ok not a brilliant example but there were others talking about sort of subliminal influences!
Cheers, HM
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam
RE: Perception of risk
I'm all about rational evaluation of chance, outcomings, risks, dangers and benefits.
But I can't but observe that many suppossedly "rational" evaluation of future risks is based on arbitrary weighing of factors. I have seen this amongst my engineer colleagues, at my company and at the newspapers.
Rational people makes a model to try to predict a future event, calling all the factors involved, and when they have all of them sorted out they think the model is consistent, but I have observed that commonly they make a subsequent mistake: They assign arbitrary importance to any of those factors, or they discard the importance of others.
It is oftenly overlooked how sensitive their model is to the different factors affecting it. And, commonly, they assign this sensitivity based on emotions, previous isolated experiences or just pure intuition.
So, what I mean is that frecuently rational people introduces emotional randomness by not weighing factors properly.
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
I guess Amazon also has the book on there US site, so I'll have to look.
Less than 50% emotion for engineers? What an uncareing bunch.
I guess numbers don't lie.
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
Consiter not all engineering is science. There is a great deal of art involved, and they can't take that away.
And still life is but a joke.
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
I heard lottery is called the extra-tax on fools (Schopenhauer said it)
RE: Perception of risk
The lottery is indeed an optional tax. I've declined to opt in.
- Steve
RE: Perception of risk
Well, that being said, I bet 1€ every week with my workmates.
So far, the government is wining us by far, but hope is priceless.
RE: Perception of risk
I am guessing the attraction of the lottery is the big payout. And people play because it gives them a goal.
Do you also call radio stations to win prizes? The odds are better, but just dosen't seem like as much fun.
RE: Perception of risk
The above link appeared in WIRED magazine a few months back. The premise of the article was that a single formula "The Gaussian copula" formula has a significant contributor to the flawed understanding of risk in the credit markets.
Reading the article, you will infer that a poor to mediocre at best understanding of the mathematics of Probability is shared by an entire generation of market analysts.
The fundamental math skills of those who wield the authority of granting credit backed by the assets of the rest of the country is so lacking that it is scary.
The anecdote that 'math is only for engineers and scientists' has poisoned the professional ranks so completely, that serious flaws in practice are not being discovered until they break. In fact, the scope of the problem has been greatly amplified due to the willingness of an ENTIRE INDUSTRY to rely on the mathematical assumptions of just a few analysts. Why? Because no one bothered to learn or undersand the nitty-gritty relationships in the construct of the equations that were used. Travesty.
Where is the 'Perception of Risk' going in the next 5 years? Well, I can boldly certify that it will not improve until some statistical fundamentals and mathematical science is adhered to and upheld in modern business theory. Sometimes that which we don't understand DOES kill us in the end...
RE: Perception of risk
But remember, not everything you read in books applies to engineers who are allegedly more rational and logical than emotional, according to studies....
http://www.bly.com/Pages/documents/STIKFS.html
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Perception of risk
The stock market is based on the feel of the enviroment, and company the stock in based on. So understanding of those conditions is the basis of the market. However, the traders don't consiter what if's, and it maybe the perseption of to much complexity.
But what are computers for if they are not used to compute numbers.
RE: Perception of risk
Unfortunately engineers are a small percentage of society!
No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam
RE: Perception of risk
Managed risk is driving on empty, hopeing you will get to a gas station.
Worth the risk is gambling.
Risk investment is insurance.
Risky is eating two week old food left in the fridge.
RE: Perception of risk
"Does this dress make me look fat?"
RE: Perception of risk
- Steve
RE: Perception of risk
RE: Perception of risk
Or have you tried: "Who did you have to fight to win that belt"?
RE: Perception of risk
- Steve
RE: Perception of risk
If I get a question, any question, along the lines of "Does my bum look good in this?" "Should I wear this dress tonight?" (or one of the 43 others she has already tried on and accessorised in the last two hours that I have been standing by the door, car keys in hand) I have learned to answer a question with a question: "Did you just buy that? I've not seen it before." (Ok so I see it every time she tries it on when we are late being somewhere else).
This is known as risk management. I move the contention into familiar areas and then let the usual polite discussion play along its normal path. I am never (now) so intemperate as to actually answer a direct question... that is where we get into the area of uncharted risks; I could end up in hospital.. or jail.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com