Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
(OP)
Hi everyone,
please excuse me if this is discussed somewhere else, but i thought this part of the forum would be appropriate
i'm just looking at this ~90B$ in US infra spending over the next 2-3 years from the Obama plan and wondering what you guys take is on how it will impact the US E&C Industry? I have found the members here to be of high quality and intelligence so will be interesting to get your feedback and thoughts.
thanks!
please excuse me if this is discussed somewhere else, but i thought this part of the forum would be appropriate
i'm just looking at this ~90B$ in US infra spending over the next 2-3 years from the Obama plan and wondering what you guys take is on how it will impact the US E&C Industry? I have found the members here to be of high quality and intelligence so will be interesting to get your feedback and thoughts.
thanks!





RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
1. Will the short term gains be oversdhadowed by the enormous debt burden we are incurring?
2. Are we ready for stimulus? We are still nursing a debt and risk hangover. We are not ready for spending. To me it seems like planting seed with snow still on the ground.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
It's easy enough to talk about the potential impact of $800 billion in deficit spending, regardless of what is or isn't in the bill.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
so it would seem to be that even under best case scenario, the US E&C industry will still see negative revenue growth in 2010.
your thoughts?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
1) This money is "black hole" money, it will disappear largely without a trace.
2) The quoted figure "X million jobs saved or created" is fiction.
I have nothing to add and I doubt I would respond to any challenges to my statements:)
Regards,
Mike
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I cannot see how this is black hole money, more money needs to be spent on infrastructure in the US as it is deteriorating faster than it is being repaired.
Any money spent on this is better than nothing, surely.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Investing borrowed money into infrastructure and projects means you get something for your money and that is what the French propose.
Just cutting taxes, as Brown proposes, and bailing out the debt ridden banks does actually acquire anything but debt.
That's not to say either is necessarily going to work but if either was to have less long term negatives I'd say at least have something to show for all the money you've spent, like a dam or two, a bunch of nuclear power stations, some new roads.
But one things for sure, I don't think we need $140million dollars worth of new climate computer models.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I agree that more spending should be on infrastructure, but per the news, this figure is only about 6% of the total. Outrageous.
If we are going to spend public money, I want stuff we can put our hands on in 5 or 10 years time.
Regards,
Mike
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Now these were multi-million dollar booms. The "stimulus plan" is nearly a trillion dollars--four to six orders of magnitude bigger than the booms that one industry was absolutely unable to manage. This fiasco has the potential of making Oil-For-Food look like a church social. Many BMW's will be purchased/leased by bottom feeders who have never produced anything in their lives.
I agree that if the package was 90% infrastructure it could possibly do some amount of good (except where to you find the workers to do that magnitude of skilled effort?). With 6% of the total going to things that you can touch and feel I'm thinking that little of the money will ever leave the beltway.
David
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
What really needs to happen is the US Gov't needs to suspend their mark-to-market accounting rules on banks. What this generally means is this. Currently, under mark to market rules, a bank must value all its assets per the CURRENT market, not a historical market value.
For example....Suppose you own a $600,000 house near a forest and have some other money assets. You go to borrow money from someone, full of knowledge that your house has a historical value of about $600,000.
A forest fire suddently looms up and approaches your house.
When you go to a bank for the loan, the bank sees the fire and doesn't accept your use of your house as collateral as they are "marking" your house to the current "market" as worth nothing....i.e. its going to burn down.
Historically its worth $600,000 but the bank, in its response to a potential fire on the house says its worth $0.
Suddenly the fire turns and your house is spared. But you couldn't get the loan as the bank only looked at the current, fluctuating value of the house and not its historical value.
In the banking industry, the government forces banks to have a level of reserve on hand and banks can only loan out so much money based on their "marked" assets. In this down market, those assets are VERY undervalued when compared to historical levels. So money is tightened since the banks are limited in what they can finance. The economy then further sinks, further reducing the assets the bank holds, further reducing available money, and the snowball down the hill occurs.
By suspending these mark to market rules, the money in the US would be freed up and certainly help the economy...much more than a ridiculous stimulus package that is really, truly a further attempt to strengthen government, not the economy.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
To me, the main problem (with regards to jobs) is that the U.S. has no hold on a specific technology. Meaning, there is nothing that can be designed and built here, that can't be someplace else in the world for 4 times as cheap. Unless they start using some of this money to create jobs that will last, indefinitely, they're all just phantom jobs. (Not saying I know how to do it, but I'm not an all-knowing politician.)
V
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Lots of IT employees were laid off recently to make way for this deal.
The stimulas plan is a good idea, but US companies need to keep the work force here to make a difference.
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
where do you guys get that 6% number? i get 90B$ on a package of ~800B$, or 11.25% of the stimulus bill aimed directly at US infra
if you read the bill it has ~90B$ explicitly meant to be spent on US infra, and 50B$ of it is very focused and targeted even down to the state level of who is supposed to get the money.
FYI, suspending mark to market could ruin the international financial system. the banks already don't believe each other as to whats on the books, you get rid of the only accounting we have you'll see LIBOR go to 10% and more banks fail. the bank issues are not accounting, the problem is the levered up and bought illiquid assets at the top of a bubble. anyone who had done that with tech stocks in 2000 would be equally insolvent regardless of what accounting methods are used.
and they are cutting taxs AND spending money, but the basic gist of gov spending over taxes is that people save some of their income and don't spend it all so the multiplier effect is less. this is very well documented.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
you guys thoughts?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
So congress is tossing money into the fire the federal reserve made.
I believe we should lay all the blame on the congress. But sence very few people read enough history to understand when the problem was made, we are doomed to repeat history.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
In other words, it was expedient then to promote some dubious economic theories for political advantage and now those chickens are coming home to roost.... but why should we expect that he is now able to deliver the solution? did he learn something more about economics in the interval? and what has changed?
Back then it was about getting the banks to lend money to people they didn't consider a good risk and now the need is to bail those banks out and put the economy right....
http://w
http:
http://o
In the UK we have the same situation, the chief culprit is now expected to suddenly be sufficiently smarter now to be trusted to fix a problem he caused.
To be fair, I suspect it is not going to be an easy presidency because peoples expectations far exceed what any one man can deliver and he may be unfairly judged as failing when he may achieve more than any other person could do but fail to deliver what people expect him to do.
This doesn't seem like an auspicious start.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"Higher Education:
The maximum Pell Grant, which helps the lowest-income students attend college, would increase from $4,731 currently to $5,350 starting July 1 and $5,550 in 2010-2011. That would cover three-quarters of the average cost of a four-year college. An extra 800,000 students, or about 7 million, would now get Pell funding."
Do I understand this correctly? Is someone really saying that the average cost of a 4 year college education is under $8000.00 (1/3 more than 5500)? I think that this is firm evidence that whoever cranked the numbers here did not attend any accredited four year college - possibly an on-line college? Twenty years ago, I was paying over 4K per year for my son to attend the UW as a resident. I understand the costs have gone up to $1500 to $2000 per quarter now, just for the tuition, let alone for any books and lodging.
This is ridiculous. Someone is not being realistic here. I don't thik it's me.
Mike McCann
MMC Engineering
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Mike McCann
MMC Engineering
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I'm no economist, but on the cusp of a depression probably isn't the best time for the county to all sudden get some religion about spending borrowed money. If we can borrow 5 billion with Bush for...i don't know what....I'll give Obama and the Democrats a shot with their stimulus plan.
Anyway, my company is definitely expecting some benefit. The're capital improvement projects I know that are on hold right now that will be released once some funding becomes available. I'm certain there's a lot small businesses out there like ours where a couple modest infrastructure projects could be the difference in our doors being open or not in 2010.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Put the money into SOMETHING THAT WILL PAY OFF! I don't care if it's new military equipment (assuming we will sell equipment to allies, not use it hold the world hostage), the auto industry (increase US market share), biological research, drug research, new or more efficient forms of energy, a new pet rock, whatever...
-- MechEng2005
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The money will go into two main areas:
One: to bail out the banks who were made to lend sub-prime and now have to foreclose on properties that aren't worth the money lent to buy them
two: to secure those properties for the poor folks who never could afford them in the first place.
How much money will be left that is actually spent on something that is "wealth generating" is the question. The trouble is that socialism spends on services not wealth generating so it is a bad time ion the US and the UK.
Truly speaking, it is all good money going after bad.
If these guys played poker, I'd play poker.
They forget that it doesn't matter how much money is in the pot, it isn't yours any more. You only put more money in if you can win the pot, not because you have an emotional attachment to the money you already put in.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I thought this was funny:
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Overall impact for US E&C will be poor compared to a 7-10 year plan like it needs to be.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I am disgusted with the deficit spending by both the democrats and republicans. For those who choose to blame the last 8 year increase squarely on the republicans, you should rethink what has taken place the last two years when the democrats were responsible for much of the deficit. Now let's see how much the deficit rises with Obama kowtowing to the congress.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
oooh, that ought to cover books.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I am hearing that the "tax cuts" work out to about $8 to $13 per week. Stimulating.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Ah, good. I can afford that value meal I always wanted.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
-- MechEng2005
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Wind farms for our electric cars.
Get real, the best way to get out of this is a war.
Bomb Mars now!!!
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
My recolection of current history has two years when the budget was both balanced and the national debt reduced by 363 billion, 1999 and 2000. This was a result of a good economy and a congress vs president of differing parties. (Then came George W. and the 5 trillion growth in debt.)
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Unfortunately for the USA, during the good times of the last 20 years there has basically been deficit spending (except for the 2 years mentioned above) in both the good and bad years along with major underspending in some important areas. Thus, when the really bad years come along, like now, the country is basically bankrupt before you start the real decifit spending. And it is not just the government, companies like GM etc have done exactly the same. They were losing money in a boom market, so now they have no chance. I hope you all have deep pocketrs to pay it all back beacuse the brilliant individuals who made fortunes out of it all will not be donating it back!
I feel sorry for you, but you voted for them (50.1% of you anyway), even though their policies are effecting (and stuffing) the whole world.
In Australia we have had surpluses for most of the last 10 years so a little deficit spending in the current times should not hurt too much as long as it is spent on the right things. Unfortunately, the new idiots in power here have got that part wrong.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Now I'm not dumb enough to think that contractors etc. can necessarily go from building timber framed houses to refurbishing/replacing bridges & the like, but they should be able to do refurbishment of schools and other government owned buildings, shouldn't they?
I've started to wonder if the bill should have been broken out, rather than a ridiculously large amount of $ in one go it could perhaps been split up, something like:
- Short term stimulus such as infrastructure projects ready to go or even in work but lacking/soon to lack funds, defense projects in a similar state and maybe even some planning for further infrastructure projects to potentially be funded. Essentially things that can be started within a few months and generate things of long term value to the country while keeping a few people off unemployment (and off course hence giving them money to spend to generate more jobs...)
- Short term 'bail-outs' to states or federal agencies etc. to maintain essential services.
These 2 to have been arranged in about the current schedule.
- Medium term stimulus similar to above but covering jobs that still need some planning/engineering before ground is broken etc. Perhaps jogs that can't start before the end of this year but could start by 2010 and be complete within a year or two of then. Some ability to vary the amount actually spent depending on how the economy is doing at the time it comes to be spent would be nice but may be impractical due to the uncertainty it implies.
- Long term recovery plan. Including money for education, research, studies (real ones not bottom less pits for partisan think tanks etc.) into things like a comprehensive energy policy, possibly some longer term infrastructure but based on needs/logic etc. not just pandering to lobbyists be they from the oil industry, environmental groups or anyone else fixed on only their narrow view point.
Honestly, I have my doubts about the benefit of 'cut taxes across the board' approach/elements or the 'tax refund' like last year, for reasons stated by others above.
At the risk of sounding like a Philistine, I'm not sure the 'national endowment for the arts' is worthy of funding under cover of 'stimulus'. Although I have some sympathy for design studies for new Coast Guard ice breakers and even contraception for those on benefits (that second should get some flames from the average eng-tips member).
However, I'm sure the above breaks to many fundamental rules of economics/politics...
thread769-236603: 'Buy America' clause announced in stumulus package is related.
KENAT,
Have you reminded yourself of FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies recently, or taken a look at posting policies: http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The trouble with building infrastructure is that to politicians it's sexier to build new than to fix the old crap our forefathers built for us.
So we'll get NEW stuff- new bridges etc.- when we already are having trouble finding the money to fix the OLD stuff...nobody wants to put money into operating grants for transit systems or for fixing roads and bridges, because nobody wants to raise taxes to pay for it.
To you Americans: try supporting the physical infrastructure you need for a country physically much larger than yours but with 1/10th the population (ie. Canada), then cry to me about an "infrastructure deficit"!
At least our banks were regulated and kept more or less out of the sub-prime mess. Sure, they took a few write-downs and their share values took a tumble, but none of the major Canadian banks is anywhere near collapse. Sometimes regulation actually works...
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
There ain't no such animal as "bringing forward".
The idea that you are "bringing forward" something you'd have to do anyway is that you'd have to pay for it anyway.
True.
However, as a "there, there little taxpayer, don't worry about high finance, leave it to the experts. Just think you'd be spending this money anyway." it sucks because it doesn't tell you you still have to find bundles of cash for something to replace it in the future (unless they do it so badly it has to be done again).
OK, it was something you figured you might be able to afford in a year or two and you are going pay a penalty by doing it now anyway.
But you can't then leave a void in the future and that means replacing it in the future with something that probably wasn't so essential and which you couldn't afford anyway and which will be priced in a sellers market - government funding for economic stimulus fix-ups doesn't have to be justified like ordinary jobs which means the cost/benefits will be way out of wack and the costs will probably go way over budget anyway and everyone will "justify" it as "necessary" ergo, a seller's market.
Of course, it may be that the Iraq reconstruction game has proven so good a money spinner for some that the chance to play the same game on home turf has some influence here... just a different quarterback and coach.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The irritating part is some of us are paid less than the top of the industry in good times, but our jobs are more stable. And we have to carry these top earners in bad times.
Maybe they should have put some money back, so we would not have to carry them.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I still like the tax on people who don't vote. After all who is going to vote agenst it.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"I still like the tax on people who don't vote. After all who is going to vote agenst it. "
HAHAHA!!!!!
do you guys think that the big companies who will be bidding on these government contracts will get very low margins on the projects they DO end up winning since the government obviously has all the negotiating power here?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
http://www.stimuluswatch.org/project/by_state
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Also while I perhaps wasn't explicit enough I agree that improving existing infrastructure whould probably take priority over completely new items. Though the amount of money in the current plan you might think there'd be at least some for both.
Probably wishfull thinking tough.
There are some fairly significant road works near where I work, that will stop in a few days because the State is in a financial crisis. This seems an example where some federal money might be of benefit - rather than stopping it and restarting it in X years when the state gets their poop in a group.
KENAT,
Have you reminded yourself of FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies recently, or taken a look at posting policies: http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Now one thing the American citizen should look out for is that which we see in the UK.... the money gets spent in the ruling party's strongholds....
e.g.
http
http:/
So if you live in a democrat state, you're OK.
Of course, if the same traits are found in US politics as UK, it will help you personally if you or your company donated to the Democrat cause....
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The basis of this has to be that the taxes are set at the correct rates to end up in balance over the long term. Unfortunately for USA, this has not been the case. The taxes are so low compared to government spending that the country is in deficit in the good times rather than in large surplus, so yes, your taxes will have to increase and by a lot more than they should have, because they have been too low compared to spending (doesnt feel like it does it) for decades.
RE the infrastructure being brought foreward and therefore not there to be done in a few years when it would normally have been, that is the idea. The infrastructure is built in the bad times and when the economy recovers private sector production takes over.
It is all very logical as long as the tax rates/government spending logic is correct. Unfortunately USA's is not and you are now in hock to the tune of $12trillion and increasing by trillions per year.
The idea is that the government goes on a debt binge when the private sector goes off it and vice versa. For the last couple of decades in the US, both the goverment and private sector have been on debt binges and you have nothing to show for it.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Somehow it seems a bit unfair that any fool can get us ino a recession without knowing how they did it but why should it require knowledge and skill to get us out?
One wonders to what extent recovery will be "accidental", a normal part of the continuing cycle of things.
Of course, politicians will always be around to claim credit and apportion blame, as necessary, but who knows what is true? Certainly politicians wouldn't know the truth if it bit them. They do recognise the opportunity to make a quick buck for themselves and their cronies.
A recession is a great excuse to spend money, if not wisely, then well. Some very questionable expenditures will be made which normally would be frowned upon but which will be "justified" as "it was necessary".
On the other hand, given the politicians need to keep the people cowed and frightened, a depression is as useful as any other scare. Perhaps they won't need the AGW scare any longer and we can at last let that drop? I mean, come on guys, one scare at a time please.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
htt
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Li published his work but did not seem to use it himself and cautioned about its improper use. It almost seems as if it was a passing fancy.
Every body is busy saying he is not at fault but really speaking, if you give a loaded gun to an imbecile kid, do you have some responsibility for what then happens?
He seems to have published this and then just sat back and watched.
On the other hand, the AGW computer model came with no health warnings or reservations from its creator.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The politicians now have to find a way to spend all this money withut appearing more piggish than usual- the line at the pork barrel feeding trough will be crowded indeed.
It would be useful to spend it something other than make-work projects that do not contribute to the major changes in infrastructure and lifestyle that will likely be needed 20 yrs down the road. Rebuilding the same old highway bridges might not be the smartest procedure- if in fact mass transit ( commuter) and improved rail ( freight) would be required in a new economy that needs to burn less fuel.
In the US, converting over to a single payer medical insurance industry ( paying for it thru a VAT) , and paying off the new super debt via a (gasp) carbon tax might also be in works.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The EPA have apparently received funds from the stimulus plan to help reduce emissions from existing diesels. Through the EPA regions, qualified applicants can get as much as 75% of the cost of a repower (from an older engine to an engine w/current certification) paid by the government. You can also get 100% of the cost of an emissions upgrade kit or aftertreatment retrofit, but they must be on the verified tech. list. Applications must be submitted by about mid-April, according to the website. You also have to be working in conjunction with a government agency or nonprofit (who must submit the application) to qualify. I'm wondering whether anyone in here is planning to take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade existing horsepower and reduce emissions?
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/grantfund.htm
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
8% of the stimulus money will end up as something useful.
We loaned AIG 30 billion, they just lost 60 billion. They don't even know where it went. The government people in charge don't know where it went. I think I'll try this with my bank tomorrow. Wish me luck.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I expect in 5 yrs there will be a cry for increased federal funding to pay for empty buses driving around town, that are not adequately funded by fares.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
However the question sticks in my mind, who pays for the up keep on these buses? Probally you with higher taxes.
Seems to me we should consiter projects that don't have a major up keep impact, or will pay for there future up keep.
Maybe something like sidewalks.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
KENAT,
Have you reminded yourself of FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies recently, or taken a look at posting policies: http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I completely agree. Unfortunately both Republicans and Democrats are to blame. Neither can really be trusted. I don't know anyone who is upset at what is going on AND willing to vote for a third party. Most just shrug their shoulders and go 'oh well, what can I do?' We live in a country where we can vote these morons out if people would take a stand and take a chance. I expect we will be akin to marxist Rrussia in not too many years if this spending and money printing continues.
I completely disagree with the stimulus package. We will have to pay for it eventually, then where will we be?
There are a number of site you can go to to get another perspective and argument to all this spending and bigger government craze. Cato.org, reason.com and reason.org are my favorites.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Don't sleep another night believeing this is solely a U.S. misadventure. The collapse is truly an international effort.
European banks were leveraged even higher than U.S. banks. British banks were the first to fail. Italy, Austria, and Switzerland speculated heavily in eastern European mortgages and lost. Likewise for speculators in consumer credit in the Balkans. Britain and Spain had housing booms that busted.
German and Canadian banks were most prudent and their economies are suffering the least. This will likely translate into a shift in power toward Germany, which makes France nervous enough to rejoin NATO.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
But what excuse does Obama's government have, witnessing what happened in the UK, finding itself in the exact same situation with regards AIG and the bonuses being paid for out of tax payers money.
You might argue that they were committed before they discovered the UK outcome but it is not encouraging that these governments both make the same simple errors and are expected to solve the worlds economic problems.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I was not talking about bank problems, I was talking about the US government and the US fiancial situation. The US government simply has not been collecting enough taxes to pay its expenses for the last 20 years or more to keep the public books even or in credit over the length of the financial cycle. And neither have many major companies such as vehicle manufacturers. Now that the governemnt needs to spend money to prop up the country it is already bankrupt and getting close to insolvent. If they had to deal throuigh the same lenders as us, they would have been closed down long ago. In the long term this has to result in the end of US financial dominance and I doubt that the US Peso will be wort what it is today when it is all sorted out.
Regarding the European and other banks etc, yes some are in trouble but they were simply following the lead of the US banking and investing community and got caught out. But I do not think they invented the problem, just thought they saw a way to get rich quick following the lead.
RE China, yes, I do think they will end up being the financial centre. I do not think Australia will have much chance of getting quite that powerful, with our 22 million population and no industry. Eventually we will be simply a big hole in the ground after we have exported the whole place to China.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
As to our rediculous spending over the last 20 years. Yes, that has only empowered our current situation and BOTH parties are to blame. Which is why I hope that people would start voting for third party candidates. This mess can be traced back to the 70's and Carter, and some might even argue to the early part of the last century (ca 1907).
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
China, meanwhile, is making definite moves toward expanding their military sphere of influence. It may take a generation or two (a blink of an eye on China's timeline), but they are working on a navy capable of extended power projection.
Australia lacks the population, location, and nationial will to be more than a regional power.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
http:/
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
How it all started...
"The way it is"
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Mike McCann
MMC Engineering
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
We dug this hole, we let it happen.
Outsource because it's cheeper. Why not improve our own internal processes.
Reduce costs by reducing quality. Gee consumers don't like our product as much.
OK safety isen't so bad, but it sure cost us.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I agree.
Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
The reason why most people don't vote for a third party is because they don't believe they will ever get in power, but they don't have to. Australia had a situation last cycle where independents held the balance of power and the major parties had to pamper to them in order to get their bills passed. That is all you need to keep them honest.
I think the world is now far too complex for the old two party system.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I will disagree with you on the usefullness of minority groups in government having the balance of power (in most cases). They are normally one-issue individuals/groups and insist on getting their interest satisfied to allow anything to get passed in voting eg Green groups, Gun Lobby, legalise cannabis, etc. So they are normally not improving the actual legislation or keeping them honest, simply getting their little bit added to satisfy their self interests. This may actually make the legislation worse but it does not matter to them. If you want a good example, look at the governments where there are a lot of parties (eg Italy).
They already have 5,000,000++ lobbyists in Washington doing this. They do not need extra independents having the balance of power as well.
We are stuck with what we have until elections stop being a popularity contest and are able to actually find the most suited person for the job. Would you buy shares in a company in which the CEO was elected to run it based on his TV adds, financial backing, sincerity of his smile and the propaganda (read lies and BS) he produces?
Unfortunately I do not have a solution either.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Of course, such governments can be pretty ineffectual and the Italian is one such where they recognise the weakness and have been attempting to limit the extent of PR in the hopes of achieving stable government.
Blair, obliged create the Welsh and Scottish National Assemblies as his price for inheriting the John Smith mantle of leadership, took care to ensure they were elected via PR thus poisoning any real effectiveness. Maybe.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
If we enact a special tax on people who don't vote, then they maybe more likely to vote. Which will bring, hopefuly, new ideas, issues, and candates into the process.
A third party is possible and may fracture the news reporters more into reporting, and not trashing candates.
What's this got to do with Stimulus Plan? Well I'm just unhappy enough about it that I would vote agenst any incumbent in anything other than a city election.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
KENAT,
Have you reminded yourself of FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies recently, or taken a look at posting policies: http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
I often voice the opinion we would be much better off to just pay these people to STAY HOME.
Regards,
Mike
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
KENAT,
Have you reminded yourself of FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies recently, or taken a look at posting policies: http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
In some South American countries they effectly have a reverse pole tax. How else do you think they have 98% voteing records.
The problem with write in's is in some places they require you to spell the names correctly, or they count the vote to the wrongly spelled name. This makes it difficult for a write in canadate to get elected.
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
And ewh, we don't get a write-in.
I think we should have a "None of the Above" choice on the ballot and if this choice gets the majority of the votes, the office goes unfilled until the next election. We could then begin to see which of these offices are really necessary:)
Regards,
Mike
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
RE: Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan....
Regards,
Mike