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The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

(OP)
This isn't meant to be UK-centric but here goes.....

I just wanted to get a feel for what my fellow Engineers  thought about the present credit-crisis and the affect it has had on your own jobs and job prospects.

Do you feel that the job market has been squeezed?

Or is there any difference between now and twelve months ago?

At a time when we in the UK have had a few decreases in mortgage rates (nothing as aggressive as those in the US) but are suffering a rapid rise in basic costs such as electricity, gas & food, I have been wondering......

Where do I go from here?
 

Kevin

"It is a mathematical fact that fifty percent of all doctors graduate in the bottom half of their class." ~Author Unknown

"If two wrongs don't make a right, try three." ~Author Unknown
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I still don't know what the "credit crisis" actually is.  My mortgage hasn't really changed, my credit card interest rate (academic really) may have gone up (don't know).  Some things cost more (unrelated I suppose).  Sounds like hype to me.

All I can think of is that some people who assumed they could borrow huge amounts of money find they no longer can.  Why is that a crisis?

 

- Steve

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

You probably won't feel the "credit crisis" until you try to buy or sell real estate.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Here they still have openings for power engineers. So the slowdown hasen't been an issue.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

No effect at all.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I'm in New York, USA, and as far as the job market, I can't say it has been bad.

However, I'm looking to buy a house, and that's where I can see a "credit crisis" of sorts. I haven't been a a working engineer for very long, and therefore, don't have access to a lot of cash for a down payment. Without going into much detail, people think that there house is worth a lot more than it is, and cling to this notion. With a higher house price, comes a higher down payment (which I don't have--not many younger buyers do.) So if you have a WHOLE LOT of people who need to sell (but won't sell below a certain price, which is outlandish for the most part), and a lot of people who want to buy, but can't get a decent mortgage that they can afford... you have a credit crisis--at least in real estate.

V

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Well, there's no real crisis there that I can see.  Young people can't buy - they'll have to save their money, or tap retirement plans to come up with the money.  People with inflated prices on homes will have to sit tight and wait for buyers (and anybody who bought a house intending to sell again in less than 5 years is a speculator in my book), or lump it and sell at a loss.  Life goes on.  This whole "no money down" mortgage thing is a loopy mess, but the only people being really hurt by it are the speculators, and the real-estate agents.  I don't cry for either breed of parasite.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

btrue, any chance you could convince my wife about the no money down thingwinky smile.

KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

From what I gather, the "credit crunch" will prevent small business from borrowing for growth.  Without the capital, it cannot hire people and buy equipment.  The banks are just not taking the chances and the Small Business Administration has less money/tighter underwriting standards.


 

Don Phillips
http://worthingtonengineering.com

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I think that the 'credit crunch' in the UK has been a long time coming and, for many average householders, is to do with borrowing on the basis of the increase perceived in property values.
Where this 'borrowing' has been used purely to fund that £30k car or that month-long holiday to Hawaii or that time share in Spain, there's nothing of lasting value to show for it and when the market value of their "property" (I call mine my home) falls, they're shelling out real money for things that have little value.

My first married home cost about 4 times my annual income.
That same house now sells for about 5½ times the equivalent job income, say a 37% increase in 'value' that some mugs would borrow against, just to fritter away.
 

Bill

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

In the UK it is the greed of the money lenders un-regulated (or unenforced) by the government.
It used to be that you had to have a substantial deposit and you could then borrow twice annual income. Of course, this meant your choice of properties was pretty limited.
So then they start to lend more, and to help out those first few years, special interest rate deals so you could afford to pay a higher mortgage while your income wouldn't support the true value.
SO there is the first assumption:
that as time goes by income will increase to help pay the mortgage.
But, as income increases, so too do expectations. Of course, when you have sat in a house for a while, the price goes up due to supply and demand. SO you ow have equity to boost the deposity value for the next.
Increasing property value is the next assumption In fact, on occassions, it can go down.
That property values haven't gone down so foten as one would expect is because the money lenders have more  money to lend.
Now you can borrow more than twice income and you need a smaller deposit.
Of course, this doesn't mean you can afford a better house, it just means that there is more money comp-eting for the same house and the effect of lending more moeny is to increase the selling prices, not to increase the borrowers range of options.
Then we come to self certification. The day they put "financial advisers" into estate agents was a bad one.  
Theoretically, you had to prove your income. However, some self employed people could self-certify. This meant that some people would see a property they wanted, work out what they needed to borrow, work out the income they needed to show to get that money and that is the amount they'd certify. It would appear (and I have been told this myself by an "advisor") that they do not check too closely.
Why? because the lenders money is safe.

Why is the lenders money safe? because they lend only part of the property value. So if the borrower defaults on day one they can get their money back and all that is at risk is the borrowers equity or deposit. (Sadly, sales of repossessions are managed by the lender which means that so long as they get their money back they could care less about the borrowers deposit).

Now we come to the next problem.
Because house prices have been rising and rising significantly, the borrowers need more money and the lenders need to lend more.
Every one is pursuaded that house prices can only rise.
Enter the 100% mortgage. Lenders are so convinced that prices can only rise they forget that they are the ones responsible for the phenomenal house price rises so they are convinced that even if the borrower defaults at once the months that have elapsed since the sale was agreed and the default the price will have risen by a few thousand (especially as part of the borrowed amount probably includes improvements).

Now comes the crunch and the whole house of cards start to tumble.
But, where will it end up?
What is the true price of a house?
The victims are not all speculators. Yes, there have been some who decided that because property prices were so rapidly increasing they would borrow every penny they could, modernise the property and then sell it on for a fast profit.
Now enter TV. Once it was cookery shows, then it was holiday shows then gardening. Now it is property development. Countless shows looking at buying and selling, buy to let, in short, how to be a "property" tycoon with no other skill or resource than aspirations and access to easy money.

In the UK many many simple people have been caught out because of the combined greed of the property speculators and money lenders but mostly a lack of regulation by government which for years abdicated its responsibilities.
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

My father was a financial advisor.  My college buddy was an Asset Secutitization lawyer (unitl he married his boss and retired, but that's a different story).

Neither of them could explain in terms that an engineer could understand/believe where the money comes from when you sell a house at a higher price than you bought it for.  When I bought my house ten years ago I paid £86k for it.  It was recently valued at £230k.  So if I were to sell it and buy another similar house, no "real" money would be created or destroyed - the "value" is purely theoretical.  If I were to sell it and spend the proceeds on fast cars, women and holidays, the "value" becomes real.  The system has coughed up £150k for me to burn and then I go back to renting.

My question is: Who has contributed to my £150k spending spree?  It's real money.
 

- Steve

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Securitization, damn fingers!

- Steve

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

On the West Coast, USA, we're seing a slow down of public jobs (water treatment, wastewater treatment, etc...)

As people's houses are "worth less" there's less tax revenue for cities to spend on project.  Also most cities plan projects on future growth.  As those growth numbers have been lowered, lots of projects have been cancelled.  

It hasn't really hit me personally yet.  My company was too busy to begin with, so we're just now getting to a comfortable level (lots of projects cancelled).

On the private side, there are fewer developments and high rises being planned, which has reduced the backlog in that area.  Again, most companies were overloaded, so I don't think anyone will be going home empty handed.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Quote (btrueblood):

but the only people being really hurt by it are the speculators, and the real-estate agents.  I don't cry for either breed of parasite.

That's simply just not true. There are first time buyers that are being hurt by it, whose only mistake was trying to buy a house at a time when the sh*t hit the fan because stupid people bought houses they couldn't afford, and were financed by lenders who should be fired, and then shot. I assume you're a home owner, btrueblood. This means that you don't have to worry about buying a house, and even if you did, you'd have the equity in your house (assuming you bought it at a lower price than it's presently worth) to put a nice down payment on a new house. Believe me, I'm not trying to argue with you, and I agree that the speculators and unsavory lenders should go jump off a bridge, but I'm just relaying personal experience, because I'm really annoyed that I can't get a decent mortgage on an overpriced house because I don't have $30,000 in cash.

V

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I would love to be a first-time buyer right now.  A buyer's market (especially in foreclosures) with no house to unload...  how does it get better?  Maybe by waiting for the bottom to fall further...

The downside is that it is harder to get a decent mortgage.  The easy money is gone.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

vc66, I'm not trying to justify it, but the old rule was, as jmw stated, that you needed to come up with 20% down and could borrow no more than 2x your annual income.  That's how my wife and I had to do it back in the day.  We managed to find ways to scrounge that money a little quicker, but it took us 2 years of living cheaply and saving pennies before we could afford to buy.  We didn't buy ANYTHING in those 2 years that we didn't need; no new dress for her, no toys for me, no cars/bikes/cameras/tvs/vcrs etc. etc.

"...because I'm really annoyed that I can't get a decent mortgage on an overpriced house because I don't have $30,000 in cash. "

Yes, the change from the old rules to the "new rules" of no money down, and now back again, causes you to not be in a house today (somebody "moved your cheese").  Sorry for that, but you aren't really hurt, just "annoyed" (you are out no money, and thank your luck that you aren't in a home now, that you can't afford, and looking at the only option being defaulting on your loan because you lost your job, or got sick).  There are people in my shop who bought a year ago, and are "upside down", and they are worried...but: they bought their houses to live in, and the value of the house as a house has not disappeared.  They will struggle, but likely be alright.  They may eventually be out some money when they have to sell in 5 or 10 years, but not as much as if they planned to sell the place in less than a year, expecting to make a profit on a place that they couldn't make the mortgage payments for in the long term anyway (house flippers = speculuators in my book).  Being upside down on a house or any other credit purchase is not a new thing, it is the RULE for ANY credit purchase:  you are BETTING that you will have money in the future that you don't have now.  There are many ways for that not to be true, and you should be prepared to deal with the consequences should those bad things happen.  

Yes, I'm in a house today, it is our second home.  Its value doubled or better since we bought it (in funny-money terms, we've never even considered selling, but homes around us have), but I expect prices to drop back to normal in a few years, once the bubble in the Pac. NW pops, and it will, eventually.  We didn't buy the house expecting to make a profit, we bought a place to live, expecting to spend the next 20 or 30 years here, raising a family.  Even if we end up "upside down" relative to what we paid for it originally, we still received the value of living here for the last 15 years.  And, we didn't sit on our butts paying the minimum payment on a 30-yr. mortgage, either.  The best time to make double payments is when you and your mortgage are young.  It also hurts the most then, because all of your friends are out spending their home equity loans on fast cars, trips, etc.  It hurts to do the smart thing, and delay gratification.  But we owe less than 1/3 of what we paid for the house now, so we are comfortable...now.  When that mortgage was hanging over my head, I was worried and had trouble sleeping, and put up with a lot more crap from my bosses...and worked my rear end off to make all of that go away.

So, sorry for you vc66, but I'm not crying for you either.  Shag your ass, earn some extra money, get your husband/boyfriend to take a second job, cut corners, eat macaroni -- do what you need to do.  30k is what, half your annual income or less (I'm pretty sure there's two of you from what you've said elsewhere in these fora).  What would you say if I told you that you should have a MINIMUM of 1/2 your annual income in savings?  What would the two of you do today if you both lost your jobs, how much do you have saved up?  What if you got sick, how would you pay bills?  Do you have a household budget, do you stick to it?  How many espressos do you drink at Starbucks each day, do you eat out several times a week?  Not that I care about any of that, nor am I picking on you (as an engineer, your finances are likely well managed compared to a lot of people).  But there are always ways to cut corners and save some money, it just depends on how much you really want to.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

vc66,

Also, I forgot to add:  my wife and I had to walk a mile to the mortgage offices, in the snow, uphill both ways....

In other words, forgive a COF his ranting...

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Quote (btrueblood):

get your husband/boyfriend to take a second job

What the hell gave you the impression that I'm a woman?!

Believe me we're saving every penny, but you're definitely right in saying  that I'm not hurt, just annoyed. And to clarify what I meant about people who bought houses that they couldn't afford--I'm talking more about people who took the easier road with ARM's, not necessarily the people who unfortunately lost their jobs, got sick, etc.

I appreciate your rant, but, in all fairness, I hate Starbucks. hourglass

V

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Man btrue, if I could just get you to explain some of that to the Mrs...

That said, I wonder how the ratio of house price to salary has changed and if it's made it harder.

Here in Santa Barbara to hit a 20% down payment I'd need close to twice my annual salary even for a pretty basic, maybe even fixer upper.  Fortunately back in the Desert where I spend my time when not working it's less than 1 years pay to hit 20%.  Heck if BRAC don't hurry up it may even hit half.

KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Vc66, somewhere I thought I read a post where you said you "were pregnant".  Maybe I'm mistaking your handle for another one very similar, or maybe your meaning was collective and not singular, I apologize either way.

Kenat, yeah.  That's why we got the h%^^ out of SoCal, or Cal in general; we were DINK engineers with Master's degrees, and were still looking at about 5 years of saving on our combined income for anything "close" (< 1 hr commute), and those were crumbling shacks on postage stamp lots.  Even houses in the desert are too dang expensive, and no way could I survive a 1- to 1.5 hour commute, that is heart attack city for me.

Dunno.  Everybody wants a house, everybody wants to live close, own two cars.  I think with fuel prices going higher, we are going to start to see a resurgence in inner-city living, there is some already happening in downtown Seattle with old warehouses being converted to condos (and boy are they pricey).

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I grew up in the South of England so the CA house prices aren't quite as alarming to me as others but still, in many places out of reach unless we're really willing to slash our standard of living.

KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I purchased my first home less than 1 year ago. I do think it was a good time. Home prices in my area hadn't really dropped, but they had stopped increasing and homes had been on the market for some time that there was certainly more room to negotiate with sellers.

As far as cost, the total cost was about 2.5x our annual income. Though we did have savings and did not borrow the full amount.

I do think that the economy has hurt some people that didn't do anything "wrong" or planned poorly. However, I know a number of people that bought more than they could afford. When my wife and I went in to get pre-approved for a home mortgage, we told the lender how much we wanted to be pre-approved for based on what we determined we could afford after looking at our budget and spending. I'm pretty sure that we could have gotten a loan for 1.5-2 times as much. It seems that if you have a fair amount for down-payment, the lender isn't too worried. They know that between the down-payment and repossessing the home, they will get paid. This means the buyer has to be very cautious. The lender isn't going to be looking out for them. And making sure you can afford things you buy should be a personal responsibility anyways. It is somewhat disgusting that the lender would set people up and tell them they can afford things that they most likely cannot though.

Anyways, I'm rambling, so it's time to end this post.

-- MechEng2005

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

The mortgage interest deductibility for tax purposes in the US added fuel to this particular little fire.

In Canada, where there is no mortgage interest deductibility from taxes, it hurts badly to take on a big mortgage, and it makes sense to pay down your mortgage as fast as humanly possible.  No guaranteed investment of any sort gives you an after-tax return anything close to what the banks want for a mortgage up here.  Of course, the financial folks still suggest you max out your RRSP (our version of the US 401K plan) before you make extra payments on your mortgage, but that's only good advice if you're getting awesome returns in your RRSP.  The bank always gets their piece- guaranteed- and ultimately that piece is after-tax dollars.

We have no corresponding "credit crunch" in Canada, though a few of our banks got their fingers caught in the "commercial paper" cookie jar, or when the bond insurers threatened bankruptcy.  But we're still so tied to the US economy that our boat will sink along with theirs to a significant extent regardless.   

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Wonderful, the goverment wants to help.

You know what they say, politations like babies should be changed often, and for the same reason.

Personally, I think that on the back of your property tax assement there should be a box to check that is said sold.

 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

... and guess what their slipping in with that bill... ALL credit card transaction to be reported to the IRS

Senate bill summary text:
"Payment Card and Third Party Network Information Reporting. The proposal requires information reporting on payment card and third party network transactions. Payment settlement entities, including merchant acquiring banks and third party settlement organizations, or third party payment facilitators acting on their behalf, will be required to report the annual gross amount of reportable transactions to the IRS and to the participating payee. Reportable transactions include any payment card transaction and any third party network transaction. Participating payees include persons who accept a payment card as payment and third party networks who accept payment from a third party settlement organization in settlement of transactions. A payment card means any card issued pursuant to an agreement or arrangement which provides for standards and mechanisms for settling the transactions. Use of an account number or other indicia associated with a payment card will be treated in the same manner as a payment card."
 

Believe it if you need it or leave it if you dare. - Robert Hunter
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

ewh,

Why should we be concerned about credit card transaction being reported to the IRS.  I would not have a problem with just about anyone taking a look at my credit card transaction records.  Is it a identity theft issue?
  

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

It isn't just credit cards, it is any electronic transaction.  Since when does the govt have the right to examine our bank accounts just because it can?
It is not worth the angst of going into it here on these fora, as many people don't care that our basic rights are rapidly disappearing.  Why worry if you haven't had to use them?

Believe it if you need it or leave it if you dare. - Robert Hunter
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Good ol big brother.  Shaw was just off by a couple of decades, give or take.

KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

The purpose of the transaction reporting looks like a way to check for unreported income based on how much someone is claiming as income on their taxes vs what they actually are spending.  Spend more then what the IRS thinks you should and suddenly you are audited.  The FBI uses this method to look for drug dealers and has caught some spies this way. The reasoning is, spend more then you should and there is likely some illegal activity going on.  I can imagine many business travelers will be caught up in unnecessary audits if that is what they are going to use it for.  I just hope the states are not allowed access to this, think of all the out of state transactions they could start collecting "use" tax on that we "forgot" to claim on our income tax.  

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

The purpose is pretty much understood.  So is the purpose of a concertina wire.  It won't hurt unless you do something "wrong".

Believe it if you need it or leave it if you dare. - Robert Hunter
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Next, the states will want to review the credit card records to verify no out of state internet transactions with no paid state taxes are slipping by.   

Don Phillips
http://worthingtonengineering.com

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I was thinking of that too, unpaid sales tax on mail order goods.

- Steve

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Shaw or Orwell?

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I wouder if this would include paypal? For everything else just use cash.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

It depends on how you use Paypal.  I have mine set up for checking accounts and credit cards - depending on what I am buying and when, to manage cash flow.

Don Phillips
http://worthingtonengineering.com

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Incidentally, it seems the money lenders are their own worst enemies.
Having  embarked on a campaign to lend as much money to as many unsuitable credit risks as possible (and some in the US are to be investigated by the IRS is it? the same should happen in the UK)they now have apolciy to further exacerbate the problem.
It appears that the number of mortgage applications they have approved has fallen dramatically.
Of course, you can see their point, if property prices are falling then even if they drop 100% mortgages and require 10-20% deposits, the rate of fall is such that pretty soon the borrowers 10-20% has been wiped off the value and then the remaining equity won't cover their 80-90% lending.

In the past, when you went to buy a house in a rising market, the mortgage company's valuer just walked through the valuation process and approved the money. Of course, the estate agents want to sell houses and that means they need sellers and the way to get sellers is to promise them they can get a good price. SO now we have a potential conflict between the estate agents valuation and the Mortgage company's valuer's evaluation.

The nett effect is fewer buyers with less money looking for and expecting falling prices.

The very change in mortgage company attitudes is actually going to force prices even lower and we have the makings of a full scale property price collapse. Now whatever property values should be, it isn't good for the economy to allow a collapse. However, while the UK government is quite happy to bail out Northern Rock and even nationalise it, how ready will they be and how pro-active can they be in helping stave off a meltdown? One suspects that committing to the enormous cost of god knows how many wind farms is going to take every available penny.

On the other hand, you have a sneaking sympathy for a government that has discovered, in Google Earth, a unique way to revalue everyone's properties and put up rates only to find the house prices starting to collapse, though possibly the government's property valuers will have a completely different formula for calculating values for taxation purposes.

If you travel around the Uk you may see a number of older houses apparently featuring blind arcading in their architecture. Actually, this is not a design feature, it harks back to the time the government introduced a window tax and property owners promptly began bricking up their windows. One suspects a good few swimming pools will get filled in in in a similar manner. (Another good reason is that apparently. on Facebook, certain people are using Google Earth to identify houses with swimming pools and then arranging "flash parties" (who wrote that SF story about Flash Riots... made possible by Start Trek style "beam me up Scotty" transporters? well it appears you don't need the transporters, you just need Facebook and Google Earth to have the same devastating effect).
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I've tried one of those value my house on line sites, and according to them it's value is $0. Which is much less than what the tax people say it's worth. But maybe the $0 figgure is right as I haven't had an offer on it for the 4 months I've had it on the market.
I also looked it up on Google earth, and it shows the old roof, so I know the photo is several years old.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

I was surprise by how old those aerials are.  My uncle in Youngstown dismantled his old above ground pool and gave it to one of his son-in-laws over 5 years ago but the aerial as of yesterday shows the pool.
 

Don Phillips
http://worthingtonengineering.com

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Any thoughts on how the fires will effect home prices?
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Advertise as having free heating.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
 

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Won't work as my house isen't near any of the fires.

RE: The Latest Global Down-Turn (or whatever the latest buzz word is)

Reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Marge takes a job as a real estate agent, and her boss (Lionel Hutz) tells her the difference between telling the truth (head shaking side to side) and the truth (head nodding in agreement).  

She is shown a picture of a house on fire, to which she replies, "That one's on fire!"  To which the boss replies, "Motivated seller!".

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