What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
(OP)
The EIS (Energy Information Service) advises (what we already know) that while it took a long time to break the $100 a barrel target, the £200 a barrel barrier won't be long following.
What I wonder is what new changes the rising price of crude will bring and what the critical values are.
For example, Shale oil: when does the price make it too attractive not to exploit on a major scale?
Back in 2006 when crude was $40 a barrel someone asked whether shale oil would ever be viable. (http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/index.cfm)
(http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/OilShale.html)
Shale oil is profitable in some processes at $30 a barrel. The USA has some of the largest deposits of shale oil in the Green River deposits. This means that it is increasingly attractive as a means to recover energy self-sufficiency.
The downside is environmental.
One thing I anticipate is that truth is going to take a further hit and there will be some shifts in the Environmental Propaganda war which already obscures the truth to a remarkable degree.
One might argue that there is a vested interest in energy self-sufficiency that means that the USA, for example, could find it expedient to exploit its Green River deposits.
To that end, the Anthropogenic Global Warming fanciers might find themselves a embarrassment, Al Gore could end up in Quantanamo Bay..... (I'll go along with that).
Of course, this also means putting a lot of support behind the ideas that temperatures have fallen and been falling for the last 10 years and disproving the claimed causal link between CO2 rises and a consequence temperature rise (Shale oil production releases a lot of CO2).
On the other hand, the environmental issues are a handy tool with which to attack the western economies which means that the environmentalist groups could become more obviously under the control of the anarchists.
The interesting question then isn't simply shale oil, but what are the critical price levels for other changes, innovations etc and what are those innovations or major changes we can expect?
What I wonder is what new changes the rising price of crude will bring and what the critical values are.
For example, Shale oil: when does the price make it too attractive not to exploit on a major scale?
Back in 2006 when crude was $40 a barrel someone asked whether shale oil would ever be viable. (http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/index.cfm)
(http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/OilShale.html)
Shale oil is profitable in some processes at $30 a barrel. The USA has some of the largest deposits of shale oil in the Green River deposits. This means that it is increasingly attractive as a means to recover energy self-sufficiency.
The downside is environmental.
One thing I anticipate is that truth is going to take a further hit and there will be some shifts in the Environmental Propaganda war which already obscures the truth to a remarkable degree.
One might argue that there is a vested interest in energy self-sufficiency that means that the USA, for example, could find it expedient to exploit its Green River deposits.
To that end, the Anthropogenic Global Warming fanciers might find themselves a embarrassment, Al Gore could end up in Quantanamo Bay..... (I'll go along with that).
Of course, this also means putting a lot of support behind the ideas that temperatures have fallen and been falling for the last 10 years and disproving the claimed causal link between CO2 rises and a consequence temperature rise (Shale oil production releases a lot of CO2).
On the other hand, the environmental issues are a handy tool with which to attack the western economies which means that the environmentalist groups could become more obviously under the control of the anarchists.
The interesting question then isn't simply shale oil, but what are the critical price levels for other changes, innovations etc and what are those innovations or major changes we can expect?





RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Unfortunately, the UK is keeping the lid on it - and, as a result, millions of people are starving to death because of the increased price of corn etc. because of the ethanol boom.
Hopefully, soon, global warming alarmists will become embarrassed at all the deaths they are causing.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
When the market is in contango, refiners tend to operate at the top of their tanks.
A skilful trader can quite possibly buy a cargo of oil at a rather low price to quickly resell it at a profit, if others need the cargo more than he does and are ready to pay the price. So, it is not rare for a cargo of oil to change ownership during transport, sometimes several times: destined initially for the United States, it is purchased during transport by a refiner in Rotterdam in the Netherlands and finally finishes up at the Fos-sur-Mer refinery, which had a more pressing need for it.
All of these situations are also responsible for oil price increase.
Oil for food? Peak oil? governement taxes? speculation?
Crude oil will be more and more expensive, nowdays is impossible to preview its price
luismarques
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
The media hysteria has created an environment where everyone thinks the sky is falling and we will all be eating grass by next winter because of the "high" energy prices. There are some current hardships, but those are totally caused by 30 years of outrageously inexpensive energy and the expectation that it would always be this cheep.
One unintended consequence of cheep energy is that research that would have had a very good chance of providing truly cheep energy (i.e., something with an attractive balance between cost of finding, cost to deliver, cost of using, and longevity) has not been done. In the 70's every large Oil company had R&D folks. After 1986 only the very largest oil companies still had research departments and those were operating under sharply curtailed budgets. Today the rare research center is staffed with people who's job is to dole out funds to research projects at universities and Joint Industry Projects.
With "Windfall Profits Tax" and similar noise, I don't see any oil companies re-establishing their research departments--the future is simply too uncertain. Bringing any of the tar sands or oil shale projects on line tends to be a multi-decade undertaking and no one is taking the long view here.
I think that if there is an effective alternative fuel developed it will come from somebodies basement and it is really hard to predict when and where someone with both the technical talent and entrapanurial fervor will come from.
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
(Sorry, this was kind of off topic).
Bob
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http://www
I hope they dont do it... I kinda like the current arousal that is causing people to think about life... and the future... and the past, which has been brought about because of high fuel prices. Increased fuel prices will cause problems only for a short time... then they will be hopefully all fix by the time my kid (or kids if I have another) are older.
...and more people are biking so its becoming safer!!
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
I hear a lot of sentiment lately that the US government should be removing the barriers to exploration (off-shore, Alaska etc). But I don't here the same sentiment toward establishing a productive business and regulatory environment to encourage research and exploration. In fact the windfall profit buzz is still going on.
One thing was brought to mind lately - the oil market it global. Becoming more self sufficient sounds good. But in reality the benefit only comes to the extent that we increase supply enough to bring the world-wide price down, right? Since US is a relatively small player in the global supply, even a substantial fractional increase in US supply wouldn't have a lot of effect.... would it?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
How do you do it? Simply create a political environment where where the industry is not quivering in fear of Draconian regulations.
I learned today that during a time that I'm getting 6-10 headhunter calls per week, several of the big oil companies are laying off engineers (one recently cut 30% of the engineering staff). Why? Because their 7-8% return on capital is seen by the market as sub-par. Because the market is expecting government intervention up to and including nationalization. Because the engineers are not terribly effective in an environment with reduced delegation of authority. Because they can't make themselves see any long-term future.
I just wonder who is going to be willing to invest the capital to drill in ANWR, offshore Florida, or offshore California if the political football does eventually come to rest.
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
We gotta think out of the box
Its not even that difficult:
I was driving back to LAX airport one afternoon last week on Highway 91 - 5 lanes in each direction. The LH lane was signed HOV (High Occupancy Vehicles) which means 2 or more, and was just about empty - I would guess that at least 50% of the very small number of cars in the HOV lane only had one occupant
The other 4 lanes going towards LAX were nose-to-tail large SUVs and pickups, all with one person in.
With the numbers being discussed, just a small increase in fuel efficiency (or using smaller cars) will result in huge savings.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Unfortunately, the UK is keeping the lid on it - and, as a result, millions of people are starving to death because of the increased price of corn etc. because of the ethanol boom.
Really?? - got any (non-hysterical) evidence that the YOOK is causing milions of people to starve to death?.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
- Steve
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
the UK is keeping the lid on it - and, as a result, millions of people are starving to death
Millions? Really? and its all the fault of the UK?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Kenat - the answer I get when I ask about why it's not used is that the UK govt holds several patents on the process and other information is "trade secrets". I will continue to push for more information.
TPL - that's the weakest straw man I've ever seen. Surely you can do better than that.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http
From what I understand, there has been a lot of investment in solar development lately, so certainly investors think there is a big long-term upside to solar. It is one area where the raw input (sun) is already widely available. All we need is the technology to figure out how to effectively harness it. Efficiencies down somewhere in the range 10-15% now (fraction of incoming sunlight converted to electrical power). Lots of room for improvement.
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Whereabouts in the world are all these people starving to death?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
With these technologies where there is a more or less limitless source of energy (wind, sun), I think the concept of efficiency is a bit misleading. Surely the important parameter is usable energy produced per dollar running cost (correctly calculated). For instand, a solar cell that is 24% efficient will cost roughly double what a 22% efficient cell costs, per unit area. So in a rational approach to a solar power station one would use 22% cells, given the choice of those two cells. Ultimately there will be a point where large acreages of poor quality cells are more expensive than more efficient cells. I don't know where that curve sits at the moment.
Hydrocarbons from coal is likely to get more popular. There are proposals to create 20% of Australia's diesel fuel requirement at a plant in the next five years. An argument against it is it creates 8% more CO2 per gallon of fuel delivered than digging oil out of the ground. To my mind that is not a bad tradeoff (if it matters, different thread), since the fuel alternatives for aircraft, and heavy transport and farming, have a much greater impact than that.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Chris
"In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics." Homer Simpson
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
If you don't think there are many millions of people on the verge of starving to death over the world you are heavily immersed in the golden billion and not even watching the politically correct TV news.
http://lib
Your strawman was that they are all blamed on the UK govt.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
automotive and transport fuels
electric power generation
plastics
other
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http
So almost half for automobiles. Oil-burning electricity plants I assume must be buried somewhere inside that 23% heating oil. I guess those are a relatively small portion of total electricity generation, compared to coal, gas and nuclear.
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
I guess heating is one area where some people have a direct choice of oil (heating oil) vs electricity. Among cars, there are the very small number of electric cars here today with probably increase in the future. And discussion of hydrogen in the distant future which might be produced from nuclear or electricity. But at present, I don't understand the big link between electricity market and oil / gasoline market.
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Pipeline quality gas is almost all .990-1.0 MMBTU/MCF.
So when gas sells for $12/MMBTU (this month's opening price at Henry Hub) then you can get the same heating value as a barrel of crude for about $72. Since natural gas is a fairly crappy motor fuel, I guess a 40-60% price penalty makes sense.
Consequently those industries that are "fuel switchable" get nearly twice the bang for their energy buck by switching to $12/MMBTU natural gas instead of $22/MMBTU #3 Resid. The biggest fuel-switchable consumers are power plants and rust belt heavy manufacturing. My guess is that none of those guys has had their oil bunkers full in the last 3-5 years.
So, yes, crude and natural gas are very different commodities and the relationship between their is very tenuous (some people can see a leading/lagging relationship, but I don't have their calibrated eyeballs).
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http://
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Thanks for finding that, the EIA has so much stuff and much of it is hidden pretty well, I'd never seen that table before.
It is interesting that while natural gas has increased in price by nearly 7 fold (about $1.25 in 1995 and $8 in 2006) the amount of power generated with it has nearly doubled.
It is also amazing that nuclear has remained strong over the period with no new plants in many years.
Renewables remain at a whopping 2%.
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
but LCruiser, instead of getting all cranky, why don't you just re-read what you posted:
Coal is also a viable option - even more so if the British government allows the use of the Liquid Solvent Extraction method of converting it to syncrude, at over 95% efficiency.
Unfortunately, the UK is keeping the lid on it - and, as a result, millions of people are starving to death because of the increased price of corn etc. because of the ethanol boom
You may not have intended it to be interpreted in this way but, I read your posting to say that the UK government has technology that can prevent millions of people starving to death but choose not to make it available: if they did release this technology then the milions would not starve to death. If I have misunderstood your intent then I apologise.
I am well aware that there are many people all over the world starving and going hungry each night. The divide between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' has always existed and is not a new phenomenon.
Zimbabwe, North Korea, Darfur and Burma are all politically inspired humanitarian crises inspired and driven by political despots and nothing to do with the cost of energy. Even if energy was free in these countries, their leaders would still impose suffering on their countrymen in order to stay in power. In Zimbabwe for example, food aid is currently only given to supporters of the opposition MDC party if they hand over their ID to representatives of the ruling ZANU party – however, without ID they would have been unable to vote in the upcoming (possibly) presidential elections – starvation in that country is nothing to do with energy and all to do with manipulating the voting process.
BTW good link, but totally unrelated to this posting
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
electric pete, I'm not sure about your math. 47% to gasoline 23% to diesal/heating fuel. Now I don't know how much of that diesel/heating fuel is used in automobiles as opposed to trucks, trains, boats/ships, heating... but I'd suspect enough of it is used in automobiles to mean that over 1/2 the total amount is used in automobiles. This may depend on whether the above figures are for the world or for the US though, as US has fairly low usage of diesal in passenger cars.
What are the reasons LPG and Natural Gas (both liquid and compressed) aren't used more in automobiles and other road transport? I'm aware of some of the issues such as lower fuel density, concern over leaks/how to fight vehcicle fires etc. but are there others/what are they. Given that it's generally regarded as cleaner burning why haven't places like California, which seems to have one of the highest levels of concern about auto emmissions, done more to encourage its use?
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
"Millions? Really? and its all the fault of the UK?"
as if all the millions of people starving to death on the planet are the fault of the UK.
His second, more reasonable, concept is that:
"I read your posting to say that the UK government has technology that can prevent millions of people starving to death but choose not to make it available: if they did release this technology then the milions would not starve to death" which I believe to be true. There is a lot information on the cost effectiveness, but nothing bulletproof on the UK govt restricting the process that I can find. Here are some links:
h
http://www.coalresearchforum.org/crfnews38.pdf
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
As you point out in your last post, I don't see any real fuel to the fire that the UK govt is involved in some conspiracy to keep this technology down. (Not that I'd necessarily doubt it given the UK goverments relationship with the mining industry/unions since the mid 80s)
Also, unless I'm mistaken the second link suggests that the Chinese are doing if not exactly the same process something similar.
That said the current $ per barrel is around 5 times what both articles seem to suggest is necessary to make LSE economically viable. Even allowing for the inflation over the last few years, that would suggest it's worth looking at.
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
The way I view it in my smplified approximate world is that electricity sources and oil/gas supply two different markets, not very interchangeable. It probably will change in the future, but I don't see a lot of crossover possibilities at present.
The only natural gas powered vehicles I have seen are forklifts for use in warehouses (like the one at our plant). Apparently the exhaust of those are more tolerable indoors than a gas combustion engine.
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
I guess my point, and one I think Greg or someone has implicitly made before is that Natural Gas can be used in vehicles relatively easily. Not as easy as diesel or gasoline and the infrastructure for vehicle use isn't anywhere near as developed but from a basic technological point of view no giant leaps, unlike some of the work required to make electric vehicles or hydrogen vehicles work which seem to be the flavour of government etc.
Instead of using it for fixed power generation we could use it in vehicles. We could replace it in fixed power by wind, solar, wave, nuclear, coal... There are lots of potential options for fixed power but currently for vehicles the options are limited so why are we using the NG for fixed power?
I know a lot of it has to do with hitting certain polution targets for fixed power etc but if we were sensible about looking at where pollution is emitted V where it causes problems etc it would make more sense to me to use the NG in vehicles and just use cleaner technologies on coal power and the other fixed options.
Rant over.
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
I'm sure that with some work on timing, valves, and fuel delivery the fuel could have been made to work, but after 1 million fleet miles (and twice that many complaints) in three years, the systems were pulled from the trucks.
A gathering company in this area tried a test with LNG at the same time. We were hearing that the fuel had many fewer performance issues, but after a couple of years those vehicles left the fleets as well. I never heard what that issue was.
So far natural gas hasn't made the cut to compete with liquid fuels for motor transport.
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_vehicle
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/
Suggested price only around $25,000 for that Honda.
It was mentioned in one of the links that it would be easy to install a fixture in your home to fuel up these vehicles (assuming you have natural gas piped to your home for heat). So this one is not dependent upon building an infrastructure for refueling (unless you want to travel far from home).
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RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
h
This is the one mentioned in Electric Petes Honda link.
I agree that the performance of vehicless/engines designed for conventional fuels and converted to NG or even LPG will generally not be favourable. However, an engine designed from the start to run on Compressed Natural Gas would I suspect be OK. Not sure how that linked Honda is.
I think I read somewhere that CNG may suit the diesel cycle as it favours high compression ratios but I can't remember the source.
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
LPG is 'easy', in fact Ford of Australia makes LPG sedans on the production line which meet emissions and crash and so on.
Over here LPG sells for about 70 c per litre, as against 1.70 for gasoline (roughly). You use at most 30% more per km. You lose a bit on max power and torque.
Refuelling is a bit more technical than with a warm liquid fuel, but less smelly.
The suspicion is that the government will increase the tax on LPG when the user base is large enough.
You can also get aftermarket conversions, these probably would not pass emissions.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
I can't help thinking of Corporal Jones truck on Dads Army, you know the episode where they're all in the back and stick their bayonets up through the roof, puncturing the gas bag above.
http://www.squidoo.com/dads-army for those of you who have no idea what I'm on about.
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
that is exactly the attitude in the UK toward LPG (it is terrible thing not to be able to trust your government...) and I believe it is something the SMMT were moaning about at one time, that and why in the UK diesel was more expensive than petrol while in Europe it was the other way round, which is why they have substantially more diesel cars in Europe than the UK.
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
You can have a multi-megawatt NG-fired gas turbine dropped on your lot (or just parked on its flatbed semi-trailer) in a week from today, and be generating the next day. Having a plant start generating income so quickly really makes investors salivate, and is not possible with any other fixed generation scheme. The longer it takes to get the plant generating, the more that plant has to produce (in the way of profit) to make the investment attractive...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
KENAT, probably the least qualified checker you'll ever meet...
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
David
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
today oil price
http://w
luis
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
http://www.pickensplan.com/
I guess we would develop massive storage facilities. I heard San Luis Reservoir is 90% efficient at storing energy. Anybody know anything about that?
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
Maybe if one of the state goverments builds a pumped hydro plant.
Oh wait that was proposed but deemed unfeasable because of the low cost of energy on the market.
RE: What will the price of crude bring next....shale oil?
statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdf
This is available annually, free, from the BP site, the link is
htt
HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca