Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
(OP)
See title. An open question to all. What will we be driving in 10 years time? (I'll have added another 20k to my '87 Volvo, but that's another matter).





RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
In an ideal world, we should be getting our electrical power from nuclear and all be driving 100% electric cars. It will never happen.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I was just looking at a list in an automotive magazine showing the top ten selling vehicles in the US.
Four of the top sellers are large pickup trucks or SUV's.
It looks like the Prius is number 45 on the best seller list- not a very impressive performance.
European gas and diesel fuel prices are roughly double what they are in the US. There are not many hybrids there either.
Why? Unless fuel prices are VERY high, hybrids don't make economic sense. Drivers are better off financially if they chose a small conventional car with a gasoline or diesel engine.
Diesels will become more common in the US over the next ten years since they have a lower cost premium compared to hybrids. Several automobile manufacturers have plans to introduce diesel versions in the 2009 - 2011 time frame.
Diesel fuel & gasoline made from plant matter, waste products, tar sands, and oil shale will become more common over the next ten years, unless oil prices collapse like they did during the early 1980's.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Therefore, unless AGW (anthropgenic global warming) gets taken seriously (no I don't feel like arguing that one today) my guess is we'll be driving much the same cars as today, albeit with slightly more efficient engines.
$100 per barrel is $2 per gallon - ie the gas price in the USA might increase by another 60c per gallon, unless they do the unthinkable and raise taxes. We already know what sort of cars people drive with petrol at $8 per gallon, and they look remarkably familiar. Perhaps the frame based SUV with a 5 litre V8 may no longer be the shopping trolley of choice, but a 2.5 litre turbo in a unibody will do the same job.
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I predict the mainstream car of the future will be utterly conventional, but smaller, less comfortable, and more expensive.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
hydrogen power.
http://www.bmwworld.com/hydrogen/stragegy.htm
"The hydrogen age is here. Mankind's search for increasingly
environmentally-friendly individual mobility and
independence from fossil sources of energy has led to a
world-wide search for the fuel of the future. To ensure
both environmentally-friendly mobility and a smooth
changeover to a long-term, sustained supply of energy, the
fuel used must be fully sustainable, that is suitable for
ongoing regeneration in a constant cycle. It must also
fulfil a whole range of economic, qualitative and
quantitative criteria. Researchers and experts around the
world have found only one single source of energy able to
reach this ideal: hydrogen."
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The retail price of fuel is only one item in the equation.
Add in energy independence , greenhouse gas emission targets and promises and domestic manufacturing base and the whole argument changes , usually dramatically.
The trend will be evolution not revolution.
Expect somewhat smaller cars (but drivers and passengers are getting bigger remember)which are both more fuel efficient and "smarter".
Expect also a lower level of direct involvement by drivers.
Pete.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
My problem is entry and exit. I find the cross over type 4 wheel drives most comfortable when entry and exit is considered, however when under way, the lower slung cars certainly ride better due to their extra stability.
Regards
eng-tips, by professional engineers for professional engineers
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RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Hydrogen is a joke fuel - distribution is awful, and no on- board system has been demonstrated with better efficiency than a diesel.
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
"BMW have cars that...
Run on water"
No wonder Joe Public gets confused and points to an oil company conspiracy.
Also on that page is a nice description of how liquid hydrogen tanks are allowed to vent when they reach 5.5 bar "in a process comparable to the evaporation of gasoline from a conventional car tank when parked in bright sunshine". I wouldn't like to be stuck in a traffic jam in a tunnel with all the cars around me "venting" hydrogen.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
BMW has completed a 100 car restricted production run of the
powerful BMW Hydrogen 7 model. With a 260 HP dual fuel V12
engine and top speed of 143 MP, the driving range is 125 miles
on H2 and 300 miles on gasoline.
http
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
When looking at the facts, it's easy to consider conspiracy.
VW can no longer sell the 46 MPG turbo Jetta in the US
because it does not meet emissions standards.
On the other hand I cannot purchase Honda's ultra-green
Accord that emits near-zero pollution. Under terms of the
Clean Air Act, anyone involved in a Partial Zero Emissions
Vehicle sale could be subject to civil fines of up to
$27,500. That is, unless you live in California, New York or
six other northeast states that follow California's tougher
pollution rules.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
http://www.teslamotors.com/
(What energy is needed to produce hydrogen, transport it, liquefy it and how much energy actually ends up on the wheels = what is the wheel to wheel efficiency?).
http:
The future might lay in a hybrid, where a tiny and light IC-engine is only used for long distances (but then at high load and maximum efficiency). E.g. having a 150 kW electric motor and a 40 kW IC with generator.
Most distances are short distances, so the comparatively inefficient IC engine is usually not needed to drive about.
If the high energy density rechargeable battery is ever developed, it'll probably displace other technologies (ultimate future).
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
automobile is in the hands of our leaders.
"The most difficult item to pinpoint is the direction of
political policy which is also one of the most influential
in this arena."
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
1) Hydrocarbon fuel will continue to be the fuel of choice for the next 20 to 40 years. This will change as oil supplys are much less than demand causing a steep increase in price.
2) Somewhere along the way, someone will figure out that the ony viable alternative energy source is solar (solar cells primarilly). Electricy has many benefits but the primary one is that energy is needed to produce alternate energy forms (say, make hydrogen out of water).
3)Oil, coal and natural gas will become feed stocks for material production (plastics).
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
realize that current gasoline fueled engines have higher
potential that what we see in production. Here's a quote
from David Vizard on the subject, when reading remember
this was 30 years ago:
"In 1975 I was the lead engineer on an economy project. The
subject was a 1275 Mini GT. That’s a direct relative of the
original 1275 Mini Cooper."
h
"The goal was to see if we could get this car to do 50 mpg at
50 mph. Once that had been achieved it would be taken on a
3 month round USA drive at normal highway speeds (not fuel
economy test speeds which would take forever to go anywhere)
and see if we could get 50 mpg.. An independent test at
MIRA (Motor Industry Research Association) on a truly lousy
wet and windy winter day recorded 55 mpg at 50 mph and 99
mpg at 30 mph. OK that 99 mpg is real close to 100 but do we
all want to drive at no more than 30mph – no! Not only that
but that 99 mpg was achieved with a 1600 lb car. The same
size car today weighs in at over 2100 lbs and the average
mid sized sedan at 2800 lbs plus."
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
If one can easily double the efficiency of a gasoline or diesel engine with or without hybrid and even much further increase it, with a plug-in hybrid, why would hydrogen ever be a viable alternative?
Hydrogen distribution is not there.
Hydrogen efficiency is not there.
Hydrogen storage is not there.
Hydrogen costs are not there.
Gasoline, Diesel and Electricity distribution is there.
Electric efficiency is there.
Gasoline and Diesel storage is there.
Gasoline, Diesel and Electricity costs are there.
VW already sold a 78 mpg diesel car (Lupo) without hybrid. So reaching 100 mpg with hybrid doesn't sound like a technical stretch. A plug in hybrid could easily double that and would probably still be considerably less costly than a hydrogen fuel cell car.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
It takes electricity (lots of it) and water, neither of which are plentiful in many places. The Pacific NW? Electricity production takes more water.
Coal-to-LNG looks like the most practical solution to me. But it takes water too!
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
It follows that huge profits can be made by deliberately manipulating the price of crude oil. This manipulation is easy when supply exactly meets demand. Any technology which potentially unbalances this perfect ratio, by increasing supply or reducing demand, is a direct threat to a potential $100 trillion business.
Why are there no electric cars on the road? Why have there been no new oil refineries built in the last 25 years? Why has there been no significant increase in average vehicle fuel economy over the last 20 years? Why don’t we have more nuclear power plants? When such huge profits are put at risk, the answer to all these questions should be obvious. Who has the power to influence such decisions? Would they be aggressive in exercising this power to protect their $100 trillion?
What are the unintended consequences of using all this crude oil? We suffer from urban air pollution, asthma/lung disease/cancer, increased global warming and a strategic weakness for foreign oil.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Regards
eng-tips, by professional engineers for professional engineers
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
http://www.teslamotors.com/"
Except, of course, you can't buy one at any price.
* We are currently in the midst of the important and time-consuming safety and durability testing for the Tesla Roadster. While we are confident of our numbers, this testing may require design changes that affect the final specifications.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Equivalent to what exactly? Un-taxed domestic electricity vs taxed pump gas perhaps?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I've heard that the energy required to make solar cells is very high. So it takes 15-20 years of the solar cell operating to make the energy required to produce the solar cell.
Anybody got any accurate numbers?
Hydrogen is not a fuel source, it is a means to store energy, and a lousy one at that. You have to use some real energy source (solar, wind, nuclear, coal, natural gas, etc.) to make the hydrogen.
Check out this analysis of hydrogen as a fuel source:
http:/
j2bprometheus
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
http://en.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The hydrocarbon fuels would be easy to compare but what about Fuel Cells, Hydrogen and battery power. Of course it would have to be amortized over five years or so, to account for the source cost and infrastructure.
That is the problem of comparing apples to oranges. If a relative price/cost is analyzed it would have to be based on just economic measures, and then ecological advantages.
Cheers
I don't know anything but the people that do.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
135 mpg is explained here:
http:
Actually you should surf their site - it's pretty interesting. I bet you won't find this much information about the development process of any car on any other car manufacturers website.
@ j2bprometheus
As far as energy payback of PV is concerned:
actually thinfilm cells can have an energy pay back time of less than one year and obviously even less if they substitute part of the building structure (e.g. roof, facade or even windows).
http
It's interesting to see that Applied Materials and Oerlikon receive lots of orders for solar thinfilm factories. Both companies have been providing the semiconductor industry for decades with coating equipment (hardly any ICs, storage devices, CDs, DVDs, flat screens etc. without them).
htt
http:/
The applied materials equipment actually produces thinfilm solar cells with a size of 5.7 m2 (one cell). (Compare this to 0.02 m2 of a typical crystalline silicon based cell.)
Their business modell is not to sell solar cells, but to sell equipment to produce solar cells (as with the semiconductor industry). Some of these factories will reach an output of over 100 MW annually.
(Of course, this will not have much of an affect on the automotive industry, but it will eventually have an effect on the power industry.)
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
http:/
(this is crystalline - not thinfilm).
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
We need to think how to build the retrofitting industry that will speed up the turn over. We can't wait 20 years. Once particular solution is find it should be introduced as fast as possible.
I just wait when the hub motors will be in mass production. That should start true revolution in automotive industry. The $18 000 for custom build hub motor is still way too high. The hub motor are not that much complicated then regular electric motor, so I expect that in mass production the price should drop to couple thousand dollar .
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
How about some external combustion in hybrid configuration.
I start a thread about steam engine for cars:
http://www
I will recommended to callously examine the steam engine from Cyclone Power Technologies – very promising.
http://cyclonepower.com/enviromental_concerns.html
That might be one solution among others that can give us some edge utile something better come out.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
* Much more unsprung mass.
* Electric motor will endure severe accelerations.
* Less space to accomodate brakes.
* 2 electric motors are heavier, more complex and less efficient than one.
* A gearbox is not really an option with a hub motor (an electric motor has an efficiency curve as well).
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
But yes, there are disadvantages, not least the financial problem when you kerb a wheel.
Cheers
Greg Locock
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
http://www.theaircar.com/
See also http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmqpGZv0YT4
(My apologies for resurrecting an older post)
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The air is almost 100% plastic so it gets great "mileage" but it won't ever be here for safety reasons.
Plug cars with nuclear plants will be the answer. Unless you need to go cross country. Then liquid fuels.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
So, if you can design a valid aircar, then you could design a valid electric car (except for the recharging problem).
Demonstrably people can't, using lead acids.
There is also an efficiency problem with the aircar.
If you charge it quickly then you'll heat the air in the tank. If you don't cool it down you reduce the range. If you do cool it down then you lose that energy.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
- Steve
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The problem is the infrastructure will still be the one used by the dinofuel monopolies to supply the extra biofuel, so the price will be set by them. I predict that a smaller company (e.g. not BP or Esso) will see the market advantage of being able to supply higher concentrations of bio-fuels to an already converted market (in engine terms) at a lower price than normal pump fuel whilst beng able to use the 'green' marketing strategy. The trillions of dollars tied up in the remaining oil is enough to pay these people off of course.
Hydrogen will not make it. As suggested it is just an energy store and a poor one at that. Also there has been little mention of the devastation caused when a hydrogen cell ruptures during a collision in real life. The damaged area is in the order of 40x larger than a conventianally fuelled vehicle, i.e. the shop across the street from a car accident will be damaged!
The future is in highly efficient, small biofuel sipping SI(GDI) and CI engines with supercharging and energy recovery systems. These technologies can evolve from their already mature markets rather than being a huge upheaval like hydrogen or electric power would be. This will also keep the oil companies happy until their prices can no longer be tolerated. In the UK the price of a gallon of diesel is already at £5 ($10). I have been using rape oil from the supermarket as 50% of my fuel for almost 10 years now, and know plenty of people who do also. The market is there for anyone who takes the plunge into biofuels for real. Production of biofuel stock is still a risky issue as poorer countries will chop down rainforest to grow it and sell it back to us. There have been advances in other production areas, such as turning waste into fuel using genetically engineered bacteria.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
My guess is that it is a two way street - MDI get production expertise (sorely needed), development expertise (ditto) and vastly improved access to Indian manufacturing. Tata get a toe in the water if the aircar ever becomes a saleable product. If...
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I think we will see some form of energy recovery, a bit like KERS being introduced in formula one, but I don't know what form energy recovery will take on the streets.
My understanding of flywheels is that for a street car, a flywheel would have to be on the engine side of the gearbox, whereas for F1 it's being designed to go wheel-side. I estimate it can be used from about 75 MPH to 225 MPH. Below that you might not need it due to wheel spin from eight or nine hundred horsepower. On the street you'd want to use recycled energy at low speeds, eg in start stop traffic - that's very different.
Supercapacitors and electrc motors?
I don't know enough about it. The energy capacity of the top supercapacitors looks good on paper, but whether they can be made at those power densities at a low cost I don't know; I have my doubts.
If you recover energy with an air tank, can engine and exhaust heat be used to increase pressure and thus provide a form of waste heat recovery in a practical manner, and could something like that lie behind Tata's interest in the air car, rather than Tata thinking of the air tank as the prime mover?
Apart from that I just see incremental improvements:- more gears, electronic control of the gearbox being used instead of manual or mechanical control, aggressive shift logic, more use of economy overdrive ratios, dual clutches and similar, battery charging on braking only, engine off when stopped, more diesels, smaller engines, electric oil devices used as much as required where mechanical oil pumps etc follow engine speed, electronically controlled valves, ...
Basically, I envisage energy recovery and incremental improvements. Electronically controlled valves should allow real compression ratios to vary to avoid knock and oxygen sensors should allow AFRs to vary to adapt to different fuels, so I imagine we'll see cars that car run on a variety of fuels.
Even if there is a switch from one fuel (hydrocarbons) to another (hydrocarbon agrifuel mixtures, more carbohydrate), there would logically be a time of mixted fuel availability and so the logical choice of vehicle would be one that can accept multiple fuels, eg gasoline/petrol and ethanol, but once gasoline/petrol is direct injected at pressure where it will autoignite, the real difference between fuels is eroded, just like electronic control erodes the difference between manual and automatic gearboxes.
=
The Tesla, with its ability to go 200 miles downhill and a its otpional diesel generator to recharge it? Nah, I don't see that as the future. It's a milestone in the history books, marking a change in battery technology, but not much more than that. I do 600 mile journies at times. The solution for that with the Tesla would be to buy the optional diesel recharger and to recharge while driving to reduce stopage time. That would in my opinion make the Tesla a diesel. Yes, you can burn the diesel in a power station, and yes the power station could be coal powered or whatever. That makes the Tesla nevertheless a disel or cola powered car. It could be nuclear. But in my opinion, use the nuclear electricity for houses and take an oil power station out of service and use the oil for cars - it makes more sense than using the oil for homes and electricity for cars.
There will always be some guy living on a hill with a wind turbine or by a river with a waterwheel. I think everything including the Tesla should be developped. I just see those things as niche market rather than mainstream. But as life gets harder with the easy oil disappearing and population increasing, diversification will be more important and there will be more of a market for niche technologies.
The advent of automatic transmissions that will fit small cars will cause a change in American city driving habits. Where small cars were only available as manuals and rejected by the American public in the times of cheap oil, new small car automatics sales will explode in US cities in the years to come when oil starts to become expensive.
In many places a litre of the world's non replaceable oil still costs less than a litre of renewable organic milk. Although I love to quote that one, I think finally fuel here costs more than milk, but it is still an illustrative example.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
We will continue to rely on the internal combustion engine for a vast majority of vehicles. Hybridization in various degrees will become very commonplace, almost ubiquitous like fuel injection, air bags and ABS have. Plug-ins: see hybrid above. Compression ignition engines will capture a bigger share globally, but multi combustion mode engines (HCCI/CAI/PCCI) will begin to come on-stream. Engines will be substantially downsized from current norms, about 3/4 to 1/2 current displacements, and a large percentage will be force-inducted. V8s will still be around but fewer in marketshare percentage. V10s and V12s will be all but relegated to extreme niches.
In North America, automatic transmissions will feature more gears; 6 will be minimum from 4 today. 8 will become fairly common for more premium cars and we may see 10-speed automatics. Dual-clutch automated manuals will see lots of growth, but CVTs will increase weakly or remain stagnant. We already see 7-speed DC-transmissions, 8 will be quite likely. Manuals will still be around but marketshare-wise declining in percentage.
Vehicles themselves will not get significantly smaller, but there will be a wider spectrum between the largest and smallest on North American streets, with growth on the latter. Unfortunately, I don't see weight trends going down significantly; the trend is still for an increase, but this will flatten out and maybe (hopefully) reverse itself rather slowly.
I believe most of the fuel efficiency measures embraced in terms of largest user base will be in transit vehicles, trucks, and taxis.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
with fully electric for those who can afford it as those are way too expensive for an average customer at present time.
www.acpropulsion.com
www.teslamotors.com
150 mpg hybrid is a reality now
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-cPHtQ0tTw
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Most Plug in hybrids will be plugged in at night. Most night time electricity is generated by base load generators - coal and nukular.
http:
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
- Steve
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
A sensible mass or volume of diesel (ie a tankful) will get you 1000 km in most cars. And it takes 5 minutes to refill for another 1000. 60kg of batteries will get you to the shops and back.
Even with their low combustion efficiency characteristics, HC fuels are here to stay, even if they become even more expensive.
In UK, diesel now costs £1.10 per litre - that's about $8 per US gallon. And we still buy loads of it!
John
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
thanks
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Algae would be a good source for biodiesel as opposed to soybeans or canola. See this article:
http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html
Estimated required area to supply the USA:
"15,000 square miles (3.85 million hectares) of algae ponds would be needed to replace all petroleum transportation fuels with biodiesel"
That's a pretty large area, about four times the area of Connecticut, but still doable.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
There's always an unintended consequence - although that would allow the US to cut it's CO2 emissions. :)
Bob
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Biomass burn, at least the way I calculate, could pay the farmer double what he is getting per acre year for growing corn and beans and cut back sharply on the atmospheric load of anthropogenic carbon. This would bring on the age of pluggable hybrids.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
A very recent study of total CO2 emissions indicates that ethanol production from food crops DOUBLES the total CO2 emissions over the next 30 years compared to continued use of oil. The main source of the increase was the burning of forests and plowing of marginal farm lands in 3rd world areas for food production to offset the loss of cheap crops from the US. I can't vouch for the math but it is supposed to be credible.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I have noticed the following:
1. We don't have all of our electric power plants in one place
2. We don't have all of our milk production in one place
3. We don't have all of our grain production in one place
So I suspect that it would not be wise to put all of our biofuel production in one place --- just my opinion.
The algae is grown in salt water, so some (perhaps most) production would be off-shore.
ATALOSS -
Do mosquitos lay their eggs in salt water or only in fresh water?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
In order to produce a fuel with a energy content, algae does make a lot of sense.
However, photovoltaics is still more efficient than algae is. Besides PV has no moving parts and there's no harvesting necessary. Also, an electric motor is more efficient than any combustion engine and the area on a roof is enough to power an electric car (or a hybrid) with photovoltaics alone.
Still, I don't think we'll see trucks or aircrafts running on electricity anytime soon. Clean electricity is not the solution to everything.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
- Steve
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Personally, barring any drastic changes and given a short term timing of 10 years, I fully expect to have 300k+ miles on my ’03 TDI and in a 5-6 years maybe I will also have their newer CR TDI in my stable after VW proves out the durability on the new engine and/or fixes any bugs.
Short term (i.e. next 10 years), I don’t expect the offerings at the North American dealers to change drastically. More offerings of downsized engines, a slow decrease of vehicle weight, start/stop technology (i.e. mild hybrids), a few expensive full hybrids, plug in hybrids, better energy storage (batteries), and more 6-8 speed transmissions. The real question is, will it be cost effective to the consumer for these more advanced technologies? When talking current or slightly higher US fuel prices… NO.
Politics and CAFE will force the Automakers for these development changes anyways or they will penalize the automakers, so I fully expect people to hold on to their used cars longer and resort to having them re-built/overhauled more. People will also start to drive less and try to work closer to home, but will always have the need to drive. This same thing that happened in the 80’s with the then increase of CAFE.
Because EU and Asia markets are not controled by CAFE legistation, but instead by higher fuel prices, I would expect a slow change. Barring any new development in political CO2 controls, there is no need for changes. LPG/Erdgas is the current upward trend in Germany, as Diesel was a decade ago, but this is all to do with taxation regulation. I think most in the EU realize that all of this improved technology costs money, is not worth the cost of the amount of fuel saved.
My long term solution is a little pessimistic. In 40 years, given the current rate of population increase, we will have 3-4 billion more mouths to feed. Our resources (food/water/energy) will not grow at the same rate, and may have already reached their peak.
I would like to think that some countries learn to live will much less (yes, my home country of the US being the worst offender), and hopefully are not resorting to burning FOOD in their SUVs and burning away the worlds supply of Natural Gas for electricty to live their lavish lifestyle. I would also like to think that we all learn to live at an equal standard of living, but I do not put much hope into this.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Biomass burn is the burning of biomass directly, not going through the efficient ethanol process. Use existing thermal plants to burn corn stocks instead of coal, natural gas and oil. CO2 in this process is neutral. The growth of corn removes the same amount of CO2 as the biomass burn produces.
Turn up the heat and let them make Nitrogen Oxides. It could be made to come out in the scrubbers and be the fixed Nitrogen needed to grow the corn. P and K should also be returned.
The problem we have today is that fossil fuel is increasing CO2 in our atmosphere.
Obviously steam engines with the processing needed to reduce environmental impact are not candidates for auto power. This would have to be done in fixed plants and the product would be electricity.
See http://www.chevrolet.com/electriccar/
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Right now there's a run on silicon to make all those cells. Of course it's plenty easy to make electricity without solar cells. Concentrated solar plants can generate power 24/7.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Given just two parameters in auto design - aerodynamics and engine efficiency - we could easily double both right now without much effort, and get mileage that's 4X current standards. But, like anything, manufacturers are reluctant to change once they establish a production line, and fuel costs must rise enough to get them to budge (or our Government has to force them to up the mileage and efficiency ratings)..
What's really odd to me - I drive a 1984 Chevrolet Cavalier, and I managed to get 37-38 MPG traveling out to Washington two summers ago. This is 24 year-old technology! Hats off to the Spanish VW that gets 60 MPG - we ought to all be there by now!
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Even if it was "easy" then very few people would buy the resulting car. But it isn't "easy" in the first place.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The thin layer (less than 5 gramms per m2) is applied with Silane (SiH4) and Silane is already produced in abundance.
And solar thermal plant don't need silicon at all.
It's mainly a question of the regulatory framework. Germany installed about 1500 MW PV in just one year.
The Seat Ibiza Ecomotive achieves 61 mpg on average.
h
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
As soon as they and the automotive industry make it so that the average joe out there can just come in in the evening (or while parked near the favorite pub or even evening shift job) plug in a simple device and recharge at the utilities whim (multiplexer control of who charges when during the night) plus dealing with the odd need to get enough recharge to get home if caught out during the day, I think Electric Cars are here to stay. I think it is closer than we think.
My humble opinion only.
rmw
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Also, until we have a massive multi-terawatt expansion in our energy producing grid, (in something other than gas power plants) we're not replacing gasoline. I really can only imagine this happening with nuclear energy. You'd have to pave over Texas with solar panels to get that much energy out of solar.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
After that, it depends on the politics and science of the situation 100 years from now. We could be gassifying coal using nuclear driven processes. We could have some sort of battery with high enough energy density by then. We could put the nuclear reactors (beta-voltaic batteries? super RTGs?) directly on the vehicles.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
The only problem then is the power grid in US. That is not an issue in many other countries though.
In 3, not 10, years time we will have full hybrid cars with small ( 1 liter?) turbo chared engines generating electricity if needed.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Wind is less costly than new nuclear:
This report funded by the nuclear industry states that new nuclear power production costs are between: 8.3 and 11.1 cents/kWh
http://www
However this report assumed capital overnight costs of only $2950/kW and new nuclear power plants to be built in Florida already assumed capital costs of over $7000/kW.
h
According to the Department of Energy the costs of wind power are between 3 and 6.4 cents per kWh. Average capital costs of Windturbines are $1480/kW (2006).
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41435.pdf
South dakota alone has enough wind to power half the US:
htt
And interconnected Windfarms can provide baseload:
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/aj07_jamc.pdf
Thinfilm photovoltaics is claimed to reach costs of below $1000/kW by 2010.
http:
120,000 km2 of the US is built. If only 10% of that area has roof area, that leads to a maximum solar flux of 12,000 GW or 1,200 GW max photovoltaic power at only 10% efficiency.
92 sq mi x 92 sq mi (or about 8% of Nevada and less than 10,000 sq mi) is enough to power the entire US with solar thermal.
http://www.ausra.com/
HVDC can transmit power from coast to coast with losses of only 3% per 1000 km at costs of €70/kW per 1000 km (transmission line only).
http://www
www
Aircrafts, trucks and commercial ships will probably still be oil powered in the far future, but there's no reason to keep on powering heating systems and private transportation on oil.
Btw, China has significantly more solar hot water capacity installed than nuclear power:
www.ren21.net/pdf/RE2007_Global_Status_Report.pdf
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Actually, though I don't have the reference, I believe my old thermodynamics textbooks had the maximum possible efficiency for a compression driven (diesel) IC engine at about 80%. Large generators approached 70% in practice, and smaller vehicles weren't really all that far behind them.
The gains that you can make with efficiency improvements aren't all that large, and you can't beat Carnot efficiency for a heat engine no matter how it's constructed.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
However, the air standard efficiency is NEVER reached in a real engine, nor even closely approached. Inventors that devise new engine ideas that still run on some variant of established thermodynamic cycles think they can return to or exceed the ideal efficiencies, but they're flat wrong. For automotive Diesel engines, a best point of 43% BTE has been reached in production. For large engines, it can be appreciably higher, culminating in 55+ percent for marine engines. Research has been taking place to bring efficiencies in on-highway trucks to 60% BTE by carefully identifying and addressing all sources of losses, and employing some sort of exhaust energy recovery system like turbocompounding, a bottoming cycle or thermionic converters.
In contrast, many like to malign the "wastefulness" of ICEs, and wax lyrical about fuel cells and EVs. Well, in a PEM fuel cell, the ideal open-circuit cell efficiency can be over 90%, but again, this is NEVER attained nor approached by a long shot. After accounting for all the sources of losses, the electrical output of the fuel cell stack yields an efficiency of about 50%; values as high as 65% have been attained in labs and is dependent on conditions, but this is not the end of losses. Some power is use to drive an air blower or compressor that is used in a PEM-FC to increase the power density, then there losses in the power electronics and electric motors (the latter between 80-90% efficient over a wide operating range). These losses are fairly fixed, and at very low demanded load, the system efficiency is accordingly very low to offset these parasitic losses, even though a FC is theoretically most efficient at low current loads. All this doesn't even consider the energy conversion efficiencies of the hydrogen fuel from a primary energy source that fuel cells need (either generated somewhere or reformed onboard).
Ditto EVs. Many people claim efficiencies of 80-90%, but consider only the losses at the electric motor. There are also losses through the power electronics (~90% efficient), as well as charge- and discharge losses (~80% each, mostly depending on battery type). Considering only these losses, the system efficiency drops down to something more like 45-55%. Hmmm... not so far off from the best ICEs. Again, the primary energy source has to some from somewhere. If it's generated from an ICE acting as a range extender, then your limiting factor is actually the efficiency of the ICE(!); if the electrical power comes from the grid, the efficiency depends on the mix of generating sources, but an efficiency figure of 40%-50% is typical for a wide range thermal power plants that include steam- and gas turbines using coal, oil, natural gas or nuclear as the primary energy source.
So let's recap. We've seen that regardless of the technology used, we come to a total efficiency wherein still a big chunk if not a majority of available energy is actually lost. Nobody has credibly come up with (nor probably will in my lifetime), any solution so revolutionary that will raise total, real-world efficiencies far above where they are today. And that's not the problem: as "wasteful" as all these current solutions are, the bigger problem is that transport applications are rarely operating anywhere near the potential best efficiency points of ANY of the abovementioned solutions. Regardless of ICE, FC or EVs, if these "wasteful" devices could only operate close to their (still terrible) peak efficiency most of the time, the real-world fuel consumption -- and your fuel bill -- could be reduced by as much as half. And the thing is, there is ABSOLUTELY no magic in it.
That's what hybrids are trying to do: trying to get the wasteful ICE to operate more frequently at operating points that are more efficient, and less or not all all when it isn't. It really is all it comes down to.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
1 liter of gasoline corresponds to 9 kWh. Therefore 1.2 liter / 100 km, which is already pretty impressive.
However and more importantly: Assuming one has a parking spot with a roof (2.5m * 7m and a 30 degree incline = 20 m2) and covers them with PV cells.
With a PV efficiency of only 10% and 1500 hours sun hours per year one ends up with 3,000 kWh per year.
3,000 kWh is enough to drive 27,000 km.
No one will ever be able to grow enough biofuel-plants in a little backyard to power an ICE engine of a small car and cover a distance of 27,000 km with it.
PS: One single 3MW wind turbine requiring a foot print of 20m2 and 2,500 hours of wind per year produces 7,500,000 kWh. Enough energy to do the same as mentioned above but with 2,500 cars.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
In the case of photovoltaics, kWh/$ (unsubsidized) and W(e)/m^2 need to be significantly improved from the current status. In the case of wind turbines and other alternatives, the NIMBY movement needs to be pacified.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
But as soon as thinfilm PV factories in the GW range will be online, prices will drop.
http:
http:
At this point photovoltaics can already compete with electricity produced from a diesel engine.
W per m2 is really not that crucial for most applications. A PV efficiency of 10% is sufficient to power an EV with the parking spot area available. Even 5% PV efficiency is sufficient to cover the electricity needs of a one family house with the roof area available. More important are costs per Watt of PV.
In addition cooling and heating needs should mostly be covered with solar hot water capacity, rather than photovoltaics which already has an efficiency of over 80%.
ht
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
TDIMeister makes good points about vehicle efficiency. All vehicles are far less thermally efficient then the laboratory efficiency numbers published. To my knowledge no one has actually bothered to do this type of testing. I built a pair if wheel torque sensors to install on a garbage truck to determine the energy used for acceleration, what is available for recuperation and what the actual thermal efficiency is. So far no one is interested in allowing me to collect the data. One company is concerned about being sued by the vehicle or engine manufacture, another does not want the competitor to know the results.
In 10 to 20 years the throttle will not control any engine functions, there will be all wheel regenerative braking and chemical fuel delivering your products to the store. As to personal transportation, it will depend on what energy form each government chooses to support with tax incentives and, or subsidies, or penalize with taxes, and, or hamper infrastructure construction.
My suggestion is to not allow governments to choose one preferred energy solution, but nurture all. The most efficient and lowest cost will become obvious after a few years.
Ed Danzer
www.danzcoinc.com
www.dehyds.com
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Moving on... where an alternative mechanism IS indeed advantageous is where it can realise an Atkinson/Miller cycle, and permit adjustable compression ratios, all the while being low in friction and mass. However, I am personally not a fan of VCR concepts that vary the CR with the effect of altering the clearance- or squish volume. IMHO a small range of CR adjustability can be equally effectively controlled by altering valve timing, which can be implemented cheaper than some newfangled mechanism.
Going back to the original topic of the thread, I see ICEs continuing to kick 20 years from now. They will be greatly downsized from today; majority forced-induction and very sophisticated electrification and electronic control of subsystems (e.g. valvetrain) filtering down from expensive engines to the entry-level; direct-injected with a limited HCCI operating mode at low- and moderate loads; little distinction from today's Diesel and Otto engines; hybridized in different degrees; and exhaust aftertreatment becoming one of the most complex and expensive subsystems in the entire engine.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Ed Danzer
www.danzcoinc.com
www.dehyds.com
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
I think focusing on producing more energy per-capita by whatever method is going to be more productive in the long run.
In the end, I'd like to see a state where energy is produced in sufficient abundance that everyone can enjoy a 1st world style of life. Not one where we are pushed into more and more limited lifestyles in the name of "efficiency".
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
After that, much of the same. Just on diesel from coal for awhile.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Diesel/electric worked for submarines WWI and WWII. Works for railroads today. U.S. Military runs everything now on JP-8, jets to generators. Stochiometric efficiencies of diesel are approaching what? 40%.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
Much of the price in fuel these days is due to the heroic logistics required to make sure everybody has some, including that enough crude gets refined to the right products in the right places. Therefore, actual production costs of low-sulfur diesel are only poorly related to what is happening in the market.
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?
RE: Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end?