Weather meteorological forecast
Weather meteorological forecast
(OP)
From my search, meteorological 24 hour forecasts have 86% of accuracy. 5 day forecasts have 80 % accuracy. In the north hemisphere in the beginning of summer we always hear sensionalistic announces saying that heat waves will grew up on the contrary in winter the announces are for more and more cold.
With a four month delay usually all the forecasts for Europe are inaccurate and instead of heat we have cold and also the contrary. Most of the times this inaccuracy is attributed to Azores Anticyclone dislocation versus north or versus south.
For oil refineries, for air conditioning sellers, for tourism, for fire fighting, for civil protection and for clothing is important to know in advance how will be the weather behaviour during the summer and during the winter to adjust their business planning accordingly.
With all that geo stat ional meteorological satellites and computational programmes why cannot whether forecast be more accurate beyond 5 days?
luismarques





RE: Weather meteorological forecast
I think we know quite a bit, but there is much more to discover still.
Last week I was sitting out on my deck in the sunshine and got rained on. It was a partly cloudy day and my hypothesis is that upper level winds carried the precipitation away from the cloud and so kindly deposited it on me. There was only a slight breeze at ground level.
Regards,
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
seriously tho', weather is a chaotic problem, small differences in the initial conditions make significant differences to the future predictions. that and we don't know all the interactions (so we aren't measuring the right things).
but somehow ground hogs have managed to do this (at least once a year when people (well, americans) are watching).
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
I also expect that weather models can be correlated to the sun, so a good 6 month predictive model of the sun would probably be required to do a good 6 month predictive model of our weather.
No offense cs72, but I don't agree that "straight forward" is a reasonable adjective to use with "climate change."
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" Oddball, "Kelly's Heros" 1970
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RE: Weather meteorological forecast
The climate is amazingly complex with hundreds of independent variables, and many thousands of dependent variables (most with varying dependencies). Hell, we can't agree on what happened last year, let alone tomorrow or next month.
On this canvas of complexity, I find it amazing that people say with a straight face that they know what will happen to the global climate over the next decade. Certainty in the global climate change discussion is the rankest form of hypocrisy.
David
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
In our region where the weather is extremely simple (binary: northern wind = dry, southern wind = wet, no other winds exist and the wind changes only after an odd number of days as old locals say) but 5 days forecasts are completely useless. 2 days is already stretching it.
Predicting climate change on a global level is fairly accurate, experts say, but regional (say: a continent) effects are still difficult to predict.
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
A couple of words that haunt all the guys who work in meteorology etc
Navier Stokes Equation (summation of 5 Partial Diff Equn.s) + Non linear dynamics.....
Scary stuff, but the upshot of the whole thing is that your sampling size (in this case grid seperation, I read somewhere that the box size is 10km square) determines how good your prediction is going to be. Even with that 'huge' grid size, we are pushing what the best computers can do computationally with the NS equation. Throw in non-linear response and its very easy to lose your predictabilty as time goes by....
Kevin
“It is a mathematical fact that fifty percent of all doctors graduate in the bottom half of their class." ~Author Unknown
"If two wrongs don't make a right, try three." ~Author Unknown
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
Predicting climate is akin to putting a pot of water on the stove and solving a differential equation to determine when the water boils.
Prediction weather is like dropping a bit of food colouring into that same pot and trying to compute how the colour trails will unfold over the next 10 seconds.
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
On this subject I share the sites bellow with all of you.
ht
http:/
luis
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
Well some do:
http://
See table on page 8, see definitions of degrees of likeliness etc.
RE: Weather meteorological forecast
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" Oddball, "Kelly's Heros" 1970
Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of the Eng-Tips Forums.