Project simulation
Project simulation
(OP)
Hello All.
I am in Project Controls field. Scheduling and cost control reporting is my main job description. I am currently using PE&C for scheduling and VBA for reporting in Excel.
I am wondering if some body will help me giving some know how of as to how can I use simulation techniques (e.g. monte carlo) and computer modelling techniques (in Excel) for project analysis. I have knowledge of both of these techniques but it is limited to what I have learned during my Masters in Project Management in School.
Any help or guidance will be highly appreciated.
I am in Project Controls field. Scheduling and cost control reporting is my main job description. I am currently using PE&C for scheduling and VBA for reporting in Excel.
I am wondering if some body will help me giving some know how of as to how can I use simulation techniques (e.g. monte carlo) and computer modelling techniques (in Excel) for project analysis. I have knowledge of both of these techniques but it is limited to what I have learned during my Masters in Project Management in School.
Any help or guidance will be highly appreciated.
Raja Ahmed B.E. M.Eng.
Alberta, Canada.





RE: Project simulation
Essentially, you apply random numbers to all your durations to see what pops out.
But a good critical path analysis should do that for you as well.
TTFN
RE: Project simulation
I am familiar with @Risk as well. So what I get from your reply is that I can simulate the project durations, and that will in turn tell me whats gonna be the end date.
How can a critical path analysis will help? IS it that I need to load schedule with simulated durations and see if I have a critical path or not?
Thanks in advance.
Raja Ahmed B.E. M.Eng.
Alberta, Canada.
RE: Project simulation
In Microsoft Project, you'd enter each task with its scheduled duration, provide the precedence links, and so on. The critical path is the one that delays the program on a day for day basis.
A program like @Risk will ask you for additional parameters per task, e.g., best-case/worst-case durations and some sort of probability function.
My earlier point is that if you have a handle on the critical path and have some understanding of the probability of success of each estimated task, which you essentially need for @Risk, you can do a crude estimate of the probable schedule variance by hand by essentially RSS'ing all the probable variances in critical path.
Something like @Risk will do that for all paths, so you might find that a lesser path has a higher probable impact to your schedule.
TTFN
RE: Project simulation
From what you said initially, I believe you have a good understanding of vba. If so, you can create a model of the project in excel and link all the schedules relationships using relational formulas. eg if pile capping has to start 4days after piling, you can say capping start date is (piling finish + 4).
You can also generate random numbers by activating the excel add-in "Analysis ToolPak" and applying the function "=RANDBETWEEN(A,B)" to generate random numbers between A&B.
Like I said, I have not used this approach for schedules but it works very well for reliability and cost simulations.
Greg Akhibi
Clearwaters Consulting Ltd
RE: Project simulation
Anyways thanks again and have a good day.
Raja
AB, Canada.
RE: Project simulation
@Risk's MS Project module allows you to do a Monte Carlo simulation of a schedule (www.palisade.com.au/riskproject/).
Remember though that these are just tools -- garbage in equals garbage out!
RE: Project simulation
Some of the earlier simulation methodologies tried to treat both of these sources of variation in the same way, often with totally disreputable outcomes.
A.