The chemical engineering plant cost index ( Guthrie's method) for several equipments can be found in "Chemical Engineering" magazine. I have not 2001 indexes, and i am looking for them but in febrary '00 were these:
CE Index ==========> 391.2 Equipment ==========> 435.9 Heat exchangers and tanks ==========> 371.0 Process machinery ==========> 434.5 Pipes & valves ==========> 540.5 Process instruments ==========> 367.1 Pumps & compressors ==========> 669.3 Electrical equipment ==========> 338.7 Structural supports ==========> 409.4 Construction labor ==========> 292.6 Buildings ==========> 384.6 Engineeering & superv. ==========> 340.3
I have updated my Excel sheet on the CEPCI and I have added Note 2 which provides the detailed breakdown of the index for Jan 2002 (Preliminary). You can download the file from http://members.rogers.com/fhcurry/CEIRev3.xls I have not seen such a breakdown for a whole year. I would typically take a set of mid year numbers, say June 2001, but 2001 was not a good year for averaging such statistics. Post again here if you want data for say June 2001.
You may need to reference the Jan 2002 copy of Chemical Engineering. It contains an article describing how the indices were revised in 2001. It was a major revision and update. So 2001 is a really tough year to deal with.
I am also looking for the same equipments cost estiamtion values. I also need the detailed technical data for the equipments such as heat exchangers, seperatos, combustors, pumps,expanders, compressors etc. .
Does anyone knows about this subject ? I would appriciate if you help me ..
Greetings, try www.matche.com/EquipCost, it has a lot of info. Order of magnitude, but still a good start. I have not been able to find anything else on the web......so far.
Thank you very much PAD123. I know www.matche.com/EquipCost tool. But I dont think they include catalyst cost or additional costs. Anyway, it can be found the company price list catalogs from the internet may be..!
I need some additional info about the technical info according to cost. I have estimated design data for all equipments.
Sounds like you need to take your major equipment costs and multiply by a Lang factor to get total installed cost. Lang factors are in the range 4 to 5.
The cost index CEPCI won't be published until 2002 is over. Then the data has to be collected and processed. Expect the index for 2002 by about May 2003.
vynn (Visitor)
10 Aug 02 9:28
does anyone know where I can get price of different reformers for a methanol plant?
I just checked out http://members.rogers.com/fhcurry/CEIRev3.xls and it works OK. Try right mouse, Save Target as, that should download the file to your HDD. Then you can open it in Excel.
CEPCI for Feb 2003 (final) is 397.2 CECPI for March 2003 (preliminary) is 398.2 CECPI for 2002 was 395.6 A comparison of March 2003 with March 2002 (391.5) shows plant cost inflation running at 1.7% for the 12 month period. This data is from June 2003 issue of Chemical Engineering.
I have just updated the graph of CECPI versus year from 1950 to include the value of the CECPI for 2002 which was published in the May, 2003 issue of Chemical Engineering magazine. The graph can be downloaded from http://members.rogers.com/fhcurry/CEIRev3.xls or from the download section of my website.
I came across a cost estimating program that some of you Lang and Guthrie fans may be interested in. Check out http://www.chempute.com/ftp.htm and download a 15 session maximum, almost fully functional demo of estpro. The help and manual files are worth reading since they discuss the development of the Lang and subsequent Guthrie approach to process plant cost estimating. The program seems out of date with files dated 1998. However it contains indices which allow updating. Give it a look. You could probably run a few real estimates on the demo.
hi owg.. i try to download the file from http://members.rogers.com/fhcurry/CEIRev3.xls but it just not working. It keeps informed me that the web site does not exist. Actually I'm looking for the cost index (equipment) for 2002, and you said that it could be download from the mentioned website. I've tried so many times but still not there. So, I would like to ask for your kindness to send me this information regarding the cost index to my email address here: zamir_y2k@hotmail.com . That will most appreciated as I really need those information as soon as possible. Thank for your help.
OWG...I'm very thankful for your quick respond to my requested. It will help me a lot..sometimes I wonder what make you so being a helping person. Maybe that's a nature of yours. Anyway, the information that you gave me is really important for me and my friends. May others help you as much you help them. sincerely, zamir.
The link referred to in this thread http://members.rogers.com/fhcurry/CEIRev... contains an equation trying to fit cost index data from 1950 onwards to a sixth degree polynomial. Come on! This is not good engineering practice for any such set of data. 1. Most of the parameters in that sixth degree equation are not significant 2. A cost or price index curve should be expected to be exponential, rather than polynomial, as this would be the case for a constant growth rate (or rate of inflation in this case). 3. Looking at the data they seem best described by one exponential (i.e. constant rate of inflation) for the years 1950-80, then a new exp curve (reduced inflation rate) for the years thereafter 4. Any model should be tested by its ability to predict. The polynomial predicts a sharp price increase in 2003 and the years ahead. Is that credible? If you just want to interpolate, a simple linear interpolation between adjacent points will do.
A footnote on item 2: I once saw an attempt to fit gas density vs. temperature (constant pressure) by using a high degree polynomial, disregarding the ideal gas law which tells us that including a 1/T term would explain most of the variation (not to mention the work done on equations of state to model deviations from this ideal behavior). Linear regression (aka curve fitting) is a wonderful tool, but a little insight and critical sense are necessary too.
Harg - Thanks for the constructive criticism. The real message in the link is the point data. I sure would not want to try to predict the future of the economy.
Hello, I really need any way to predict or estimate this year's Index and next year's too... I sure agree that a potencial adjustment to th data is not the best way to do it, so I wonder if the best way is to have a linear adjustment of the las three or 4 points and then calculate this and next year's index...
Governments and banks usually produce predictions for inflation into the near future. That might be a good basis for an estimate of future CECPIs. Since inflation is very low, you won't be far out if you assume 0 to 2% annual inflation. One client has assumed 3% per year for the past few years just to be on the conservative side with project cash flow estimates.
I'm having a little trouble finding relatively recent cost estimation data for a jacketed, glass-lined, stainless steel reactor (stirred). I'd like to estimate the cost for each of several sizes.
Hi I´m looking for a preliminary estimate price for the following equipment, unsuccessfully so far, can anyone help me? Nauta type mixer (atmospheric/jacketed/10m3) Steel plate belt for resin cooling/flaking
The latest I have at hand is Feb 2004 preliminary at 434.2 from the May 2004 issue of Chemical Engineering. The annual CEPCIs are shown below. 1998 389.5 1999 390.6 2000 394.1 2001 394.3 2002 395.6 2003 401.7 (Just published May 2004)
The latest I have is M&S Equipment Cost Index for 4Q2003, it is 1133.2. It was up only 0.7% from 3Q2003. I won't have later data for a couple of weeks.
I noticed a couple questions about forecasting future inflation rates. Boy, if you could do that, you wouldn't have to work!!
Seriously, I worked for a major petrochem company 25 years ago, and came up with a survey of suppliers for projection of cost increases into the future. Wasn't very accurate, but it was based on a consistent method.
Inflation forecasts are like weather forecasts. A good forecaster can make an acceptable good job in a short term forecast, but predicting the mid term is other history. If you are working in an organization, financial of accounting guys will estimate this for you. When doing an economic analysis of a project, what is normally done is to consider this inflation "forecast" as an allowance. Later, doing a reapprisal (like to see one) of such economic analysis, you will realize that you never thought that the nickel prices are sky-rocketing, or crude oil has turned down (???). So, it would be an interesting exercise to start such survey of suppliers here. Any suggestion, Larry? Have a safe day J.Alvarez
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