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America's High-Tech Quandary
10

America's High-Tech Quandary

America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
"In technical and academic circles, the word is usually spoken in a whisper: a million. China is headed toward a million engineers a year, the experts say. The number is so big, so far from our own experience, that reasonable people hesitate to say it too loudly for fear they'll be accused of exaggeration. But the truth is, China's closing in on the figure now and may have already reached a million.

Then they add the kicker: Yes, China's heading toward a million . . . and India isn't far behind. Usually, they say it with a shrug, a plaintive look, as if to add, what can we do?

Indeed, what can we do? With China's educational system cranking out engineers like toy soldiers, with India simultaneously graduating some 350,000 engineers a year, and with the U.S. at just a small fraction of that — 75,000 is the best guess — questions about America's future competitiveness are inevitable.

Increasingly, those questions are being asked by some of this country's most knowledgeable leaders: University deans; chief executives; military officials. They're worried, they say, because the United States is a country of lawyers and business executives, not engineers. So where will our competitiveness come from? How will we out-innovate countries that are graduating five, ten, maybe 15 times as many engineers as we are?"

http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6286283.html

Does anybody have any suggestions on how American engineers can compete with several million Chinese engineers and win?

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

"Win" in what sense?

While not knocking the Chinese education system, I woud have thought the average American engineer had a better technical education, better working conditions, more training, and better tools, than >>99% of the Chinese engineers. So, what's your excuse for NOT performing?



Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
I will define "win" as:

"making a product in the United States which produces more sales revenue in the global market than a similar product made in China."

Arms sales do not count because they are conducted primarily for reasons of politics, not commerce.

For example:

Cisco competes directly with Huawei and sells more products, so the US wins (at least for now - Huawei is growing fast).

For auto parts makers, it appears to be close to a tie, with China pulling ahead soon (please feel free to correct me if I am wrong).

American textiles are not competitive with Chinese textiles, so China wins.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Any engineer coming out of school is an engineer in the raw and still needs good, solid, experience.   My first question would be - how is China going to employ all these engineers and just how many are going to get good experience practicing engineering.  I suppose many will work for companies providing products for other countries like the USA..but that many?  I wonder if the China gov't got a little carried away with their central planning.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

BitTwiddler,
Just need to correct you on something, the arms industry while more politacally motivated than others is still a big money business, and it's a business that the US thrives in.
The economics of the arms industry are different from more common industries. VERY dangerous weaponry is sold at a HUGE profit while others like, common handguns barely break even. The value of the equipment doesn't depreciate much and since innovation is relatively slow in the industry and the rarity of a piece of equipment rises (due to battlefield losses), it's not uncommon from equipment to actually appreciate considerably.
Basically, the US is still the top dog in the international arms industry, the domestic isn't doing all that well though.

As for textiles, China is the leader in constant production jobs, but when it comes to one off orders, the shorter lead times in Latin america and Eastern Europe mean that they're catching up quickly.


Contrary to popular belief, China is not the supreme being of the world, it has its bonuses, but there are better options out there for certain tasks, especially JIT tasks.
As for 1 million fresh engineers....from my experience with the Chinese, no one dares to innovate, Communism has killed creativity in all but a few people. That's if they actually get a job, and that's if it is actually in design. I have a feeling that alot of it will be in documentation control ie. poring over pages upon pages of boring specs.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

2
The US was for many years a leader in production and innovation. The aftermath of WW2 left the US with the only major economy with intact infrastructure.

Now the US has surrendered this lead to become a nation of business men and is in essence living off the wealth acquired in the glory years. The result of paying too much attention to short term economic gain at the expense of long term profitability is starting to show, the accumulated debts both public and private and the large negative balance of trade will erode tie wealth of the US to the point where it cannot recover economically.

Quite frankly the US needs to lower its standard of living to accommodate its current means, get out of debt and start taking the long term view of things.

However with the culture of instant gratification and short term thinking I do not see this happening for a long time, perhaps not until it is too late to do anything about it if it’s not too late now.

Rick Kitson MBA P.Eng

Construction Project Management
From conception to completion
www.kitsonengineering.com

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Market share depends on economics.
Few people can aford the time or money to identify the best product at the best price.

What most people settle for is a product that does the job exected as near as possible without costing the earth. The fatc that there may be a better product or a cheaper product isn't a negative, thos cost of identifying it may be more than the benefit of doing so.

In that circumstance, and in most areas of industry, price can be king.

With that many new engineers and a top to bottom comitment to developing an engineering dominance (a lack of which commitment is notable in countries such as the US and the Uk where the "service industry" appears more attractive to politicians) they will surely suceed, as things stand, whatever the product quality.

Just go into your local hardware store and see how many products there are that are ridiculously low priced, made in China and inferior in many respects but one, they are the right product at the right price.

But where quality is an issue you can bet the top quality engineers will be involved.

Making "me-too" products  involves transferable skills.
That leaves us with the more problematic question of what skills and what kind of working environment etc are required for innovation.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

==> However with the culture of instant gratification and short term thinking I do not see this happening for a long time, ...
I think in many ways, that's a side effect of our political process.  The President of the USA has a maximum of either years to establish a legacy, and faces a re-election process after four.  That doesn't leave much room for a long-term agenda.  It's not much different for Congressional offices, nor for state and local positions either.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Agree with ziggi on the business part of military industrial block in the USA< but I do not know about elsewhere.  

However, I disagree on the Communism killed creativity.  In general that is true.  But it is based on the quashing of anything that will complete the supreme power of the state.  It is possible that any religion competes with the concept that the state is the do all and the end all.  But since the state needs innovation to advance technically, and engineering innovation does not compete (IMO) with the state, then engineering innovation can flourish.  I have witnessed this in the electronics business.  There is motivation, high moral, and dedication to a good product in the engineering and in the marketing.  Also, witness the Russian missile program.  They developed the Volga River project entirely without German rocket scientists.  It was a highly innovative solution and successful and completely Russian.

On the other hand I saw no sense of earning your stripes in China.  The some young men were very arrogant and just assumed that if they were educated by the state and were given a job to do that they somehow had the background and experience to do it.  This part was very sad, but might be part of having a large growth rate in new engineers and any culture would have symptoms of that problem.

I do not think China is missing innovation in engineering.  They are not complacent (as happens as a result of long term socialism in general) and they do strive to do good.  There is an odd blindness or inability to see any wrongdoing on social issues by China.  It does not seem to be fear, but they are truly blind.  They think that if the results of competitive superiority are a result of the policies, then somehow it is justified.  There is such a great lack in individual morals.  Not immoral, but just amoral.  Maybe as religious freedom grows there could be a solid foundation of morality as a side benefit.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

A communisitic economic environment is not conducive to innovation and creativity, because you're dependant upon the power of the state.  If the state is not willing to offer the rewards commensurate with innovation and creativity, then neither will happen.  Yes, Russia developed its own missile program, but even then, the only innovation that received reward was that which benefited the state's missile program.

Innovation and creativity foster far better in a free market economy because it's the market the provides the rewards.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Quote (BitTwiddler):

So where will our competitiveness come from? How will we out-innovate countries that are graduating five, ten, maybe 15 times as many engineers as we are?"
  The business executives are the ones to blame for the outsourcing issue.....they are the ones that try to increase their stock prices all for the good of the stack holders but extremely shortsighted when technical knowledge is lost through layoff, downsizing and other worthless mergers.  we should be outsourcing business executives not engineers.

Quote (Greg Locock):

So, what's your excuse for NOT performing?
  Their is no excuse every engineer has a technical responsibility to stay current in his/hers field.
I think it's our responsibility as engineers in industry to mentor young people and expose them to the field of engineering.  I happen to work for a company that creates INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS for SCIENCE LEARNING.....so the engineers inside our company are encouraged (paid) to take the time to lecture inside the class room regarding our science specialty.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

2
The theft of intellectual property is rampant in China.   Innovators will cease to innovate, even in a free market, if their investment in research and development is basically ripped off before they get a chance to profit from it.  If you're amoral and your state has no respect for the rule of law, it's far easier to steal what you need to know than to develop it from scratch.

China's tyrannical oligarchy will either deal with the state-tolerated theft of intellectual property, or China will merely rise to become a manufacturing ghetto for cut-rate versions of last-decade's products.  That still makes China a serious threat to manufacturers in the so-called 1st world, but less so than if they'd get their act together and respect the rule of law.  

China could train 2 million engineers a year and nothing about that would change.  The mere presence of engineers in the marketplace does zero to stimulate innovation- lots of other conditions are needed as well.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

All the lawyers in the US will just litigate China and India to death. wink

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I was involved in early talks to get the concept of patents, how they can actually help a company and a country, and the mind set that is needed, in China.  I thought there was a serious plan to support intellectual property once China began to be a major producer of IP and not predominantly a beneficiary of other peoples IP.  I got the impression that there was a great deal of pride in heading toward that goal.  It was embarrassing and uncomfortable (but not difficult) to dissuade people returning from China to bring their illegal disks of stolen SW of all sorts into the plant.  The young people doing this were using the laws of their state as a moral guide, a thought that I found sickening.  They truly believed that there was nothing morally wrong with stealing, if the state did not make a big deal about it.  These were people who would follow you out into the cold to hand you some spare change you had dropped.  They were very nice and personable people in all other regards.

As a reference point, it was at one time common to find great books from other countries reprinted in India without agreeable recompense.  Those days are long gone.  India somehow found a way to have low cost technical books available without extremely high western prices and all done legally.  I think that benefits everyone.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

So, can you (generaly, not VisiGoth) explain why the USSR was able to educate creative and effective engineers whereas Chine does not seem to, to the same extent? Blaming communism or socialism seems a little too pat.

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I'm not sure of the evidence that Chinese engineering doesn't have some good engineers ( I just don't know) though i have experience of working with Russian engineers and found them to be excellent (ame caveat as my ealier post; don't know how representative they were).

However, is there a risk in assuming that communism has stifled innovation?

Notice that when the Russian collapse came they seemed to lurch from the worst excesses of "communism" (soviet socialism) to the worst excesses of capitalism... I am still not sure how someone like Abramovitch managed to "own" Sibneft etc. I remember when I saw his picture on the wall in one of the siberian refineries, wondring why they had some unshaven popstars portrait on display. "That's our owner" they explained.

In China there is a much more structured approach to capitalism, a sign that they want, for the state, the advantages of capitalism or trade but are going to take great care not to let their culture be driven by it in directions they don't want to go.

Chinese engineers I have met, (very few) seem to be doing very well out of the new conditions and seemed open and ready to embrace everything that made them wealthy and by comparison even with wetsern engineers seemed well off, by local standards exceptionally so. This suggests to me that there will be every incentive for onnovative thinkers and entrepeneurs and no-one should not be complacent.

But whatever the endeavour, it thrives when it has government support and ambition behind it, and dies a slow death without. That I think will prove the real difference, the number of engineers being educated isn't a probable cause but a symptom.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Chinese /Indian engineers graduating in large numbers is good for the country. However, only about 1% of these are really good. Rest are just absorbed in the main stream life. Most of the engineers aspire to join the government services for very obvious reasons. Also due to socialistic pattern of society, the service is assured until death/retirement. No penalties and also the temptation for filthy lucre arising from government contracts.

US need not be too worried as you have a very congenial atmosphere to work and the bet facilities. Only you need to motivate the young to perform and perhaps an incentive scheme introduced to dissuade engineers from becoming beans counters.I find it a waste of talent and time for engineers to become beans counters/management gurus.This US trend is being aped in india too.

Perhaps the mantra for being labelled successful or Achiever is an Engineering dgree with a MBA in Financial Analysis. What a dichotomy?

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

PSE:  if we could only export your lawyers to China and India,we'd all be better off!  It's a pity for all those shipping containers to be returning empty!

Seriously, all the lawyers in the world are worthless in a nation wherein a contract with a foreign company is viewed as merely the basis for future negotiation, and the intellectual property portion of what you're providing is viewed as having a zero value and open to theft.  Unless they've got assets here to sieze, there's no point in even thinking about the courts.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I am not sure what the  concern is . 30 yrs ago you needed 500 engineers sitting in a rented auditorium ,working elbow to elbow along several very long tables ,in order design a large power plant. Today the same work can be done with a few dozen trained engineers at a few computers.

The fact that we have a lot fewer engineers than 30 yrs ago  is partly due to the dumbing down of our educational system, partly due to the availability of other distractions  that are more interesting than reading a textbook, and partly because the productivity imporvements caused by computers has eliminated the need for a massive engineering workforce.

If the concern has to do with innovation or growth of key industries, the availability of engineers is not the only determinant. The availability of funds to be applied to risky investments, the countries' legal system and stabiliyt, and access to other resources besides manpower play major roles. The fact that all essential scientific and engineering discourse is undertaken in english is a key advantage we have- if it changed to mandarin, we would be in big doodoo.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Visigoth,
While I agree that the Russians developed missle tech in exceptional time, they did it b/c the government mandated it, much like the US mandate to get a man on the moon pushed the aerospace industry to new limits.

My experience with Russian engineers and other technical people has been that they are extremely knowledgable, I think alot of that has to do with the very high level of mathematical education in Eastern Europe up until a few years ago. East European kids learn calculus a full two years bfore north american kids do. Actually North America is way behind the world when it comes to mathematical education, I digress. My experience with the Taiwanese and Hong Kongers has been that they are exceptional at mathematics and physics, however they were terrible with puzzle solving....I'm not a career counseller so I don't know what that means.



On the topic of mentors, I'm a young engineer and I know when I started I desperately wanted an older Engineer as a mentor, just so that I knew what the hell I was doing. Instead I got a management type as a mentor....he was willing to give me his time....and am thus moving towards the business and management side, I think that an Engineer mentor may have swayed me to stay in Engineering though.



Anyway my main point is that the present situation with China and the US is similar to Sparta and Athens after the Peloponnesian war. Sparta won, due to its sheer strength, however Athenian culture and wealth was so overpowering that it corrupted the stolid Spartan society and led to its downfall 30 years later.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I have been to China and Russia and worked with folks over there designing packing crates for large fragile art objects for The National Gallery of Art in DC. There is a very ridgid class system in both countries. The upper classes of both country's are very corrupt as well as upper management which is run by the ruling class. I agree with the previous posters about the Russians being a little more creative.  One thing the Chinese will have to face in the next 20-30 years is threat of a Chinese Civil War. This could be a big problem for China and the world. We fought ours 140 years ago.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Mrpbody44,
Why would the Chinese have a civil war?

They already had one during WW2, thats how the commies got into power, Taiwan is where all the Nationalists went to. My understanding of the Chinese is that no matter what their beliefs or geographical location, they still consider themselves Chinese.
Actually during their civil war in WW2 they stopped hostilities to fight the Japanese together.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Hi Bit Twiddler

Here is another thought. I have relatives who went to MIT, and University of Central Oklahoma State. People in general are very impressed with a MIT degreed graduate. However, from what my relatives tell me, the top 5 graduates, in math, from MIT are very close to those from UCO.

From a personal experience level, I have met excellent engineers from MIT, and some really not so excellent ones.

I think that there are excellent engineers from each and every engineering school (US, China, where ever), and there are not so excellent engineers from the same school (that is why buildings fall, bridges collapse, computers fail, etc).

The fact that China is producing 1 million engineer means that they are probably producing more good engineers than the US, but then again, they are also producing more not so good engineers than the US.

The trick is to get those good engineers (Chinese, American, British, etc.) to come work in the US, and not in China.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
My comment about arms sales being more political than commercial was based on the fact that most countries don't sell their best stuff (H-bombs, stealth bombers, F22 fighter aircraft) to any other country. Even close allies of the US such as the UK are frustrated by the export restrictions the US imposes for second-best items such as F35 fighter aircraft.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/2005/12/itar-fallout-britain-to-pull-out-of-f35-jsf-program/index.php

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
The US is running a huge trade deficit with the world (about $700 billion per year). Our trade deficit with China is $160 billion and rising fast. Even in areas where the US once dominated, such as the high technology sector, the US has deficits. We run a modest surplus only in services. We have deficits in virtually all areas of manufactured products, except aerospace and defense.

China appears to be making a coordinated effort to rebuild its economy and move "up the value chain" into areas of increasing technical sophistication. The US appears to have resigned itself to become a service economy and is neglecting to invest resources in manufacturing. Even high technology manufacturing plants such as fabs for Intel chips are now being built overseas.

Can anyone point out any areas where the US is investing more resources (money, research projects, bright people with technical degrees) in building things than China is?

The areas I can think of are nanotechnology, biotechnology, and medical devices. I think that the US nanotech industry is more or less in a tie with China right now, but the US appears to be ahead in the other two areas.

Also, will the US be able to invent new industries fast enough to generate enough revenue to close our trade gap by 2015?

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Why another Chinese Civil War? The farmers in the outer provences have things worse now than anything in 40 years. There is also a large single male population that will never have families due to the shortage of women in the country. This historicaly has been a major factor leading to civil unrest in societies world wide. The inequality and the stranglehold that the ruling families have on the society is a revolution waiting to happen. All that is needed is a burp in the world economy and a charasmatic leader for it to reach a tipping point.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Bit Twiddler,

"Can anyone point out any areas where the US is investing more resources (money, research projects, bright people with technical degrees) in building things than China is?"


The U.S. is building more casinos and maybe more shopping malls  than China I would say. Probably more suburban health care facilities also.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Bittwiddler:

a) the trade gap will close as soon as the rest of the world stops lending us money

b)the resources in the US are allocated using the "invisible hand" of the free market as opposed to state control in China. For example, in the US a working couple with no children will borrow $600K (ultimately from Asia)to buy a 2 BR townhouse in San Fran while the same $600K in China would be used by the state to build 3 apartment blds to house the farmers that are migrating to the cities. Same money , different priorities.

c) as long as there is no incipient revolt, who cares how it is distributed?

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

The problem is the widgets made by the company employing the people living in the $600k townhouse will necessarily be more expensive, all other things being equal, than the ones built by the farmers who live in the much cheaper apartments.

It used to be important for labor to be 5 miles in one direction, repair parts 5 miles in another, and repairmen 5miles in a third.  Now we have reliable equipment and UPS.  The same widget can be made where land and raw materials are cheapest.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

Drug companies are investing billions into new drugs.

Polymer LED's are new areas of interest.

Airborne networks both commercial and military are being developed in the US.

High tech metal casting processes are being developed.

These are just a few areas where new products and processes will emerge but then production of the technologies will move to foreign countries and the intellectual properties will be stolen and Walmartized because of the corporate greed of Wall Street. Corporate responsibility and ethics is at an all time low in the US. The revision of the bankruptcy law was driven by the credit card industry. Heaven forbid the credit card company lose money because somebody who should never of had the huge credit line the company bestowed on them files for bankruptcy.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

China is growing fast as we speak.  Having lived there for 4 years there is always something new.  The landscape of shanghai seem to be changing constantly - there is always a new building erected almost every month.  China is actively recruiting overseas Chinese to help the country develop.  The country is moving a lot faster than the world can blink its eye.  Before anyone knows it, China may come close to a developed country (an exaggeration yes, but it is not impossible...China has made the impossible possible).  Of course there is always the social hiearchy gap...but which country isn't facing this problem?  What does it matter to a country if it can grow fast?  

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

The trouble comes from public ownership of the largest
corporations. The stock market in other words. No
corporation can afford to lower todays revenue for a
project with a 5 year return. People would simple take
their investment money elsewhere.
To develop technology today takes massive cash. It is hard
to do in a back room with a dozen people.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I have to agree on moltenmetal's comment IP theft is a key issue. The biggest problem is the affect on smaller and mid-sized engineering and manufacturing firms who do not have the financial means to defend their IP. Even if they did the US federal government seems to care more about Chinese interests than the US's. Innovation is how to compete with China, but why should we, if the huge cost of IP won’t allow for protection in our own internal markets or countries we have IP agreement's with?

The real issue is how the middle class is getting squeezed. Soon enough Chinese companies will merge with US and huge muli-national things having more power than the governments to give them charter to exist. The middle class local companies (any ware in the world) won't be able to compete, and salaries will be normalized (or shall I say slashed). We will all be wage slaves of the WTO & world bank!

The original Declaration of Independence called for life, liberty, and the pursuit of property. In spirit, this includes intellectually property. What we need in the US is for "Atlas to Shrug" a little!


flame cursehairpull3soapboxflame curse

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

About twenty years ago everyone thought the Japanese were going to dominate the world economy.  Japanese industrial growth seemed limitless, and they were buying up much of Hawaii and the west coast.  But the growth was fueled by an unfair exchange rate.  When I first visited Japan in 1987 the exchange rate was ~250 yen to the dollar, artificially set.  When economic forces were allowed to set the exchange rate, it fell to under 100 yen to the dollar, and the Japanese economy went into severe recession.  Like Japan, China's growth is in part fueled by an artificial exchange rate that grossly undervalues the yuan.  When this is corrected, China's growth rate will fall rapidly.  What happens then is unclear.  Japanese companies still had a large domestic market to service, mostly because their employees were well-paid, so they had a large middle class.  Chinese employees are not well-paid -- their industry is dependent on cheap labor -- so the crash could be quite severe.

Jim Treglio
Molecular Metallurgy, Inc.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

What makes you think China is ever going to really let it's exchange rate be set by the free market?  America has made token efforts at pushing for it, and China has made token efforts to comply.  However, when it comes right down to it, America seems to be able to exert no influence whatsoever into China's behavior, and it is costing the U.S. dearly.

Edward L. Klein
Pipe Stress Engineer
Houston, Texas

"All the world is a Spring"

All opinions expressed here are my own and not my company's.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

China is not a democracy and has no free market, no free press, no functioning internal legal system and no respect for human rights.  Forget these things at your peril.

The international community has limited ability to influence this oligarchy on any front.  And that's getting worse rather than better as China's economic clout grows.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

moltenmetal,

Free press, human rights and social justice are not the things a nation is born with. Such thing ultimately develop as the economy grows. I am not defending the ills of the countries doing injustice to themselves but am hopeful that situation will improve.

Look at the history of Hoover dam -- the deaths were concealed, reasons of deaths manipulated. But those were those days and times and are over for US. China may be able to address these problems as it grows. Why do you think that with progress more suppression will come?

Ciao.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

2
Stand up and deliver.  If you are competitive, you win.  How does one become competitive ?  By doing things differently, in a most efficient and cost-effective manner as possible.  Ultimately it boils down to who is able to do a task better as economically as possible.  He/She wins.  If there is a feeling that America's engineers are going to be jobless, because China and/or India are producing more engineers, then America should start producing smarter engineers, with all the technology and knowledge acquired over the years.

HVAC68

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

flamby:  who'd have thought that you could suppress the free exchange of ideas over the internet?  But China's oligarchy figured out a way to do it to an amazing extent.  They will spare no expense to keep control of their population and keep themselves in power.

Will China ultimately change for the better?  Yes, I'm hopeful it will- it's a question of when, and to what degree.  If I see China become a true democracy in my lifetime it will be a very pleasant surprise.  And I don't delude myself to think that it will occur merely by virtue of the functioning of the so-called "free market".  Economics alone won't save China.  International pressure with economic sticks and carrots attached has some hope, but not if nations like mine are unwilling to exercise this influence for fear of jepoardizing their access to China's growing market- even though the current trade deficit of western nations with China is enormous and growing daily.  

That's why I don't believe that JTreglio is right that China will go the way of Japan by virtue of the valuation of the Chinese currency.  China's oligarchy has no reason to let the Chinese currency "float" and let the market determine its value relative to other currencies unless other nations force it to do so in order to maintain access to their markets.  From what I've seen, western nations like mine are too worried about what China can do to limit their access to China's growing import market to exert any effective influence over China on any front- human rights, currency policy, intellectual property, the rule of law...

HVAC68:  the free market works only if it's free.  You can be the most efficient and offer the best value for money and still lose to cheaper goods supported by subsidy or produced under inhuman conditions.  You can also lose if your goods are subject to tarrifs that your competitor's goods aren't subject to, or if your competitor can take your technology for free without paying any part of your R&D investment.  It's easier to cheat than to run the race fair and square, especially if your competitors let you get away with it.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

You are making an assumption that cheaper goods means

(a)  Supported by subsidy
(b)  Produced under inhuman conditions
(c)  Lower tariff
(d)  Cheating and taking away somebody else's R&D investment.

Not sure how you can make such a general statement.  Maybe true in some cases, but not necessarily in all cases.


HVAC68

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

You forgot the initial assumption in the statement - "You can be the most efficient and offer the best value for money and still..."

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

moltenmetal,

I agree that the Chinese situation is different from Japan's.  China certainly cares less about international norms, but at the same time remember that the exchange rate cuts both ways.  Sooner or later the Chinese middle class will want to improve their standard of living.  This means that they get paid more, or the currency imbalance is corrected, or they leave the country.  Consider that in leaving China they can live in a freer society, have more than one child, and get paid a lot more, this is not a small problem for China.  Japan never really faced this problem -- few Japanese engineers ever wanted to leave Japan.  My guess is that the Chinese goverment will move toward currency balance rather than see a large brain drain or have to increase wages.
It will also be interesting to see how both India and China deal with the shortage of women.  China has been "importing" wives from North Korea -- something the North Korean government is not very enthusiastic about, to say the least -- helping women leave North Korea is a capital offense.

Jim Treglio
Molecular Metallurgy, Inc.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

HVAC68:  as LCruiser points out, my point was that being cheapest by means of being "best"- most efficient or smart etc.- doesn't necessarily guarantee your success in the world market. Your argument is based on the assumption of a free and fair marketplace, and it's an invalid assumption often enough even here at home in a Western nation with intellectual property rights, the rule of law and a free press etc.  Bring an oligarchical regime with enormous economic clout into the mix and your assumption is even farther off the mark.  

If you want to hang your livelihood and the economic future of your nation on such an idealistic assumption and try to apply it to an unregulated global marketplace, good luck to you.  Personally I'll be looking for better international policy to ensure fairness in the process of trade from ALL nations, including China.  

JTreglio:  I wouldn't count on China's oligarchy putting the brakes on their wanton economic growth over fears of a "brain drain".  Perhaps they'll let the currency appreciate suddenly to enrich themselves personally, but I think power and control is sexier to these folks than money could ever be so I don't see such a move as at all likely.  The economic growth they're promoting isn't just for national pride or personal gain- it's to permit them to wield enhanced international power.  

If they're worried about people leaving the country, they'll simply stop granting exit permits and put the offenders in jail.  Chances are they won't even bother to do that.  With 1.3 billion, China's got lots of shortages to be concerned about, but it has no shortage of smart people.  Women, perhaps...maybe their "government" will just mandate that you can have as many female children as you want, but only one male?!  Population control will tend to improve as the standard of living of the average Chinese person improves.  But unfortunately, per capita consumption of resources will grow faster than the population was growing before which bodes serious trouble for the planet.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

to answer the original question posted by BitTwiddler:

Breed more Americans!  =P  China has the world's largest population, it's not surprising they can graduate more engineers than the US...China would spend all the money on their people as long as they are on the road to FAST improvement and development...so the more the merrier! =D

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

If you have to compete and win, you have to be competitive.  Period.  If your law doesn't allow you to compete, change the law - I know, it's easier said than done.  Compete, win or perish.  But, that's what competition is all about.  You need to innovate, find out ways and means to become competitive not necessarily cheap - it helps if you are also cheap.  Again, lot of assumptions are being made saying that China is not bothered about lot of things.  Look at the progress China has made, despite having a communist outlook.  Another general statement being made -

Quote

It will also be interesting to see how both India and China deal with the shortage of women.  "

Unquote

The female to male ratio in India as per 2001 census is about 93%.  I don't think it's so alarming to import women into India !!!  

Out of the 4 assumptions made, am sure "subsidy" and "lower tariffs" are entirely in your control (I mean the Government).  I don't fully agree with the other 2 assumptions - "working under inhuman conditions" and "Cheating and taking away somebody else's R&D investment" in its entirety.

HVAC68

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

BitTwiddler, your premise is incorrect. Where did you get your numbers? It appears that the number of engineers that are graduated in the US on a yearly basis are more or less on a par with the number that are produced in India. There are nowhere near 1,000,000 engineers graduationg from China. On a per capita basis, since the US population is so much smaller than that of either China or India, the US churns out more engineers per capita that these other countries currently do. See the article below.

http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=14849&amp;hed=U.S.+Engineers+Undercounted&sector=Industries&;subsector=Computing


Maui

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
The numbers are from the "Design News" article I hyperlinked to in the original post.

From a table from that article, the National Sceince Foundation counted the number of four-year engineering degrees granted in 2000 as 219,563 in China versus 59,536 in the US.

The "Red Herring" article you hyperlinked to is based on a study written by the same fellow who wrote this article:

http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2005/sb20051212_623922.htm?campaign_id=search

Most people in the US define an "engineer" as someone with a four-year degree from an ABET-accredited college of engineering. Mr. Wadhwa counts workers with two-year and three-year technical degrees as "engineers" instead of "technicians". He also appears to count some science degrees granted in the US as "engineering" degrees.

Additional links:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1220/p01s01-ussc.html?s=yahw

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2005/nf20051223_7594_db039.htm

http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/05/1222/art1.html

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/news/editorial/13488935.htm

http://www.edn.com/article/CA6280033.html

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/dec2005/id20051227_257940.htm

http://portland.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2005/12/12/story2.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/05/AR2005120501548.html

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

"Most people in the US define an "engineer" as someone with a four-year degree from an ABET-accredited college of engineering."

LOL.  First off, most people in the US have no clue what ABET is.  Secondly, most *courts* define an engineer as a P.E.
Third, how many ABET accredited schools are there in China?

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

(OP)
Actually, if you walk into a bar in America and tell the first girl you see that you are an engineer, about half of the time "So you drive a train?" will be her response ...

Perhaps I should have written that "Most informed people in the US consider a four-year degree from an accredited engineering college to be the minimum standard required to train an engineer".

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is a topic for another thread.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

LCruiser,

World society as a whole pretty much defines an engineer as someone who does engineering, regardless of credential. Most of the engineering being done in the world, as well as in the USA, is done by persons so described. Seems to me that engineering licensure serves little purpose.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

The report entitled "Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate: Placing the United States on a Level Playing Field with China and India" is contained in the following link:

http://memp.pratt.duke.edu/downloads/duke_outsourcing_2005.pdf

On page 3 of this report it states,

Quote:

Typical articles have stated that in 2004 the United States graduated roughly 70,000 engineers while China graduated 600,000 and India graduated 350,000. When cited by the popular media, these numbers were rarely documented or verified. Our study has determined that the above comparison is inaccurate, or tells only part of the story.
The graph labeled #2 on page 7 of the report is a histogram comparing the number of bachelor's and subbaccalaureate degrees in Engineering, CS and IT awarded annually per million citizens in the US, China, and India. Note that in terms of bacheor's degrees the US produced more graduates per capita than either China or India. On the same page you will find this statement

Quote:

The Chinese Ministry of Education is considered to be the definitive source for information relating to Chinese graduation data. We spoke with the Ministry of Education at length and learned several important points about its engineering graduation data. In 2004, the ministry states that 644,106 engineers graduated, 351,537 of which received bachelor's degrees and 292,569 of which graduated from short-cycle programs. Short-cycle degrees are two-three year degree programs similar to US associates degrees. However, these statistics are still misleading. There are questions about what qualifies as an engineering program. As a result, any bachelor's or short-cycle degree with "Engineering" in its title is included in these numbers, regardless of the degree's field or the academic rigor associated with it. This means that the reported numbers of engineers produced by China in 2004 may very well include the equivalent of motor mechanics and industrial technicians.
I have taught in the Engineering College at Syracuse University for the past consecutive nine years. I have not seen any significant decline in enrollment during that period of time. In fact, I had to be assigned a lecture hall for the first time this fall because my junior level engineering course doubled in size from the previous fall semester. I believe that what is discussed in the media regarding this topic has been distorted. I do not see any shortage of graduating engineers. Perhaps our Canadian friends could tell us if they are experiencing any shortage of engineers. I suspect that their answer will be no, they are not.

Maui

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

http://www.indianchild.com/engineering_colleges_in_india.htm

The link lists almost all the engineering colleges in India and my estimate is no more than 100,000 engineers graduate in India. Taking all unrecognised degree courses also, I may revise my number to 150,000 but no further. The figure of 350,000 is incredible.

Ciao.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

maui:  no shortage here in Canada.  In fact, when the yearly supply of engineers from both bachelor's level graduation and immigration are combined, we're probably adding 10,000 more engineers to the workforce pool yearly than we can hope to use properly as engineers.  That's a big number, considering the yearly bachelor's graduation rate for all of Canada is only about 10,000 engineers.  The result is that thousands of recent grads seek employment outside of engineering, and thousands of recent immigrants cannot find work as engineers and end up as factory workers, taxi drivers etc.  It's a problem which worsens yearly and there's no real solution in sight.

Have a look at www.geocities.com/martinsmoltenmetal/index.htm for the supply-side stats and analysis for Canada.

RE: America's High-Tech Quandary

I just read an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about India expecting a shortage of about 500,000 IT workers by 2010, despite graduating huge numbers of engineers/techs.  While India's 17000 colleges and universities graduate many engineers, the schools are poorly regulated and only the top dozen are so schools in the country are comparable to top level schools here, and after that, the Indian education system falls off dramatically.  From the article: "Many of those who go to university find colleges that haven't evolved much from the British colonial era."

Other quotes from the article:
India produces a huge number of engineers, says L&T's chairman A.M. Naik, but most are graduates of mediocre private engineering colleges. "I spend more time on human resources than actually doing work".

"There are huge numbers of fresh [university] graduates who are just not hirable," says Anand Saraf, managing director of Iqura Technologies.

Competition for talent is fierce. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., the subcontinent's largest construction company, loses 800 experienced engineers a year to software firms and multinational engineering companies, despite having doubled salaries over the past couple of years.  In response, the company has launched a global head-hunting campaign to woo back staffers lost to foreign rivals by offering salaries of as much as $100,000.



The article can be read here: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB113633832044837103-iDWRacxxS4_UTtVcQXT6s0uODWw_20060110.html?mod=regionallinks

If that doesn't work google for "indias talent pool drying up".  It's an interesting article, and has some insight into China's talent shortage too.

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