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Americans need to get serious again about space!
11

Americans need to get serious again about space!

Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)

I wanna toss my hat in for American getting serious again about space!

American's gotten a pretty black eye from industry shifts away from home, and now with chine being soooo good at aircraft manufacturing thanks to the traitorous folks at Boeing, seems to me there's one last area where - at least for now - America leads the way, and that's SPACE!

Sure would be great if GW or the next Prez would come out - like Kennedy - and say "Let's do this!"

In '69 with Armstrong kicking up dust on the Moon, Stanley Kubrick's "2001 Space Odyssey" was seemingly a No Brainer and a lot of us kids envisioned working for NASA and us being as far as Mars if not at leaset mining the Moon.

Something went wrong somewhere - now all we have is a junker shuttle and a program lacking vision.

Perhaps we ought to hassle our legislators about this screw up - so younger engineers have a field to work in in 2020.

Let's go for space again and leave the Earth to China!

Cheers!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Humanity's home and future rest upon planet earth. Our engineering efforts should be centered around this fact. I don't like a large segment of my taxes being spent upon gathering scientific facts that are useless to the vast majority of humanity.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

It's a very intesting discussion whether this is a waste of money or not.

Of course the benefits of the few discoveries mostly on materials science level that were made thanks to space travel do not outweigh the huge cost. Space travel cannot be considered "economically justified" in that respect.

The aim is a different one and the discussion is about the very fundaments of what is useful and what is not.

As a comparison, one might state that the entire Hollywood movie industry, as well as the music industry, is a waste of money. Movies and music are not economically justified at all, people spend lots of money (probably much more money than NASA's biggest yearly budget ever) on watching nonsense stories or CD's with crap they listen to a few times, then put them on a shelf to rot.
Yet nobody would say this is a worthless industry that should be closed down (as a matter of fact, this is a line of business where competition from China has not made it very far but that's a separate thread).

So why then are there so many objections against space travel, which is probably cheaper and probably more useful (least useless)?

As soon as our basic needs (the lower half of Maslov's pyramid) are fulfilled, we can find further satisfaction in more "sophisticated" activities, music, sports, you name it. Why would space travel, which has inspired humanity since the prehistory, not be one of those?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

China are way ahead in space technology too. They have their manned mission planned !

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Whotmewory,

Where have you been?  
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/01/20040114-3.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3950099/
http://www.marsnews.com/articles/20040124-mars_society_responds_to_bush_space_initiative.html

Highlights:
Complete the International Space Station by 2010.
Develop and test the Crew Exploration Vehicle by 2008.
Conduct the first manned mission of CEV by 2014.
Return to the moon by 2020.

I don't agree our ultimate future rests upon planent Earth, but yes, the tangible future does.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Space technology cannot  be ignored by arguments from an accountant regarding their worthiness or return on investments. It is the grand vision of policy makers and scientists which helped progress. Though not all of space technology can be used in everyday life,. The urge to know about outer space is thrilling.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

It is great for China to give a gift to humanity. The far future of mankind will benefit. It will also give China some pride and will do it without any wars.
Unfortunatly, part of the plan is for China to take away the IP and knowledge from Taiwan in order to have the on shore technology to really pull big things off and that could be a big detrement to humanity. China is experimenting with new ideas, maybe one of them is to give back all of the property and ownership rights and pride back to the people of China, and if the space program is a step in that direction, then I am all for it. China is delivering quality products and low prices to the entire wolrd, that is something to be thankful for, not bitter or jelous of. It can only be hoped the human degradation of implementations of socialism is one of the benefits that China will derive from it's space program.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I would like to see the U.S. pursue space exploration, but at a rate that can be sustained over a many years, not the short term high cost, high waste projects such as the moon landing and the shuttle.   As exciting as they were, a more measured approach would have been better.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

China has made great advances in modern music and the arts.  Have we already forgotten William Hung's contributions?

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Spending on moon landing is far better than spending all the resources on Iraq/Iran etc I guess. Reduce expenditure on war fare and utilize it on more meaningful avenues.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Some people critize the space program as a waste of money, however there was no pile of money left on the moon. The only thing left probably amounted to less than the beer cans tossed away on any given weekend in any large city.
Was the space program really wellfare for engineers and scientist?  Would you have the computer you have if there was no space program?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I think manned missions, such as the one to Mars, are pretty darn close to utter uselessness.  I don't think we need to make efforts to inhabit Mars anytime soon (the moon is another story as it is a satellite of our planet).

However, I still think they should continue with space projects.  Have you all heard of the "space elevator" concept? I think that would be a worthwhile effort.

Now this is where I get SciFi:  What if we could use such an elevator to economically lift millions of modules into space to collect the Sun's energy (the origin of all renewable energy sources on Earth)?  Since the Sun's intensity drops off in proportion to distance from the Sun squared, we could place said modules as close as possible to tap the largest "fusion reactor" in our solar system.  The collected energy would then be concentrated and transmitted via laser beams to the moon (or somewhere outside of our atmosphere). Another space tether can be used as a transmission line(maybe). As an added bonus, the independent & self-orienting modules can also be used for NEAR purposes. Also, the Sun is 2/3 the distance than that between Earth and Mars.  Forget Mars, we don't need any more dirt!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Nothing is ever really useless, some things are just more cost effective than others. Without the space program, computers would not be what they are today. Without World War 2 there would be no space program and no jet planes and no nuke energy. Even the recent Iraqi war is beneficial to the world of technology. Mind the benefits of any action are also economic and cultural.

Personally I completely agree with the privatisation of space, a giant hulking behemoth like NASA just doesn't have the drive and cheap infrastructure to pull off a space program again. I say leave it to the innovative little guys.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Quote:

China are way ahead in space technology too.

Yeah, that 40-yr-old Russian technology that they bought is simply awesome.

Personally, I'd rather see the NASA money going toward energy-efficient vehicles, alternative means of electrical generation, etc.

Heck, we live in a country (us Americans, that is) where 30% of the population can't afford care through the medical system that we've developed. How 'bout dumping money into means to drop the cost of medical care?

Personally, I think the manned mission stuff is a colossal waste of time and money. Cool, yes -- just a waste. Let the Chinese go to the moon; let them go to Mars.

We've got a current deficit of something like $250bb and a national debt of over $6tt. In the face of that, how can anybody really be advocating dumping money on Mars exploration?

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RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Your right on Beggar
The first spaceship to fix is "Spaceship Earth".

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Was it a waste of money to develop the space technology that allowed weather satellites to exist?  Would you like to argue this case to the millions of humans worldwide that have personally had their lives saved by such space tech?  

You can't start out to say, "I will solve this problem and no other".  Everything learned helps the whole in time.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

How exactly do manned space missions help develop weather satellites?

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RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
What a lot of great feedback!

Please know this is not an anti-China post. China though is entering the space race and we should recognize that "superiority in space" - military and commercial - is that trump card of the leader of this planet in the coming centuries.

PS: Many of the computer technologies we have, chemical compounds, building materials, and aircraft, as well as composites for so very many applications - cars, toys, industrial products, etc. - are the decendants of discoveries made in our space travel and time spent in zero-gravity.

Kchida: There were folks of your opinion who felt "the New World" was a hilarious and insane proposition. Thank god there were men and women of guts who - dismissing the "flat Earth" concept of their times - looked beyond their own horizons.

But really, this isn't just about "adventure." It's about tourism, industry, more "ground" to live on, taking those first "planetary footsteps" to the outer reaches of our universe. Yeah, yeah, it won't be in our time, but we can have fun starting.


For me and looking back at my childhood hopes of space age employment - I would love it if - at 80 or so - affordable lunar tourism had developed enough such that - prior to my demise - I could look back at the Earth from the dusty lunar landscape.

Cool!

Then I'd slap a golf ball!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Hey, isn't William Hung a civil engineering student at Berkeley.  He'd be the PERFECT person to send to Mars.

I'll be the first to downlod 'She Bangs, the Martian remix' to my iTunes!

"If you are going to walk on thin ice, you might as well dance!"

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
casseopeia:

I have walked on thin ice and I did fall through! Brrrrr!

And here's one for great moms: mine let me back on the ice skating! Yeah!

PS: So, who sings 'She Bangs, the Martian Remix?' If it's a joke, forgive me - I'm a rockabilly fan!

Here's to KEXP and Shakin' the Shack!

Cheers!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

'She Bangs' is a Ricky Martin song that William Hung sang on American Idol.  Click on MadMango's link for William Hung above, then go to Music in the list on the left and scan the list of songs for all the versions of 'She Bangs' he has done.  A quick sampling will reveal THEY ALL SOUND EXCTLY THE SAME.

Here's a link to the lyrics for the song, in case you need a bit of help understanding William's enuncation.  And if you have never heard of William Hung....dude, you gotta get out more!

http://www.extractando.com/entretenimiento/musica/Martin_SheBangs_I.htm

"If you are going to walk on thin ice, you might as well dance!"

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

It's like I said in the second part, every problem you solve gets you that much closer to all other solutions.  

Anyways, I'm all for Space expansionism over the Long Haul.  Try thinking about it this way:  Judge progress, since caveman days, as the ability to preserve the species against all threats.  Modern medicine, food tech, power tech, all of that has basically just been for that reason.  We are at a stage where if a catastrophic meteor collision (which we have proof of happening in the past) were to come for us on Earth, we at least have a small chance of seeing it coming.  

I want to get us to the point where we have a chance of surviving such an event, get all of our eggs out of the same basket as it were.  I'm not saying NASA as it is (full of bueracracy (as is the health care system)) is the one to do it, but Somebody should be.

Finally, what other Frontiers do we have left?  The ocean is a good one, but what about after that?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

time of death 4 Nov 05 16:36

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

We've only explored like 10% of the ocean, still lots to discover there.  It still leaves us in the "same basket" if a killer asteroid were headed towards Earth.

Space exploration just isn't a means to find new places to live or exploit.  It helps technology leap-frog existing technology by discoverying new methods and materials and applying these to problems here.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

This whole discussion is centered around which technology we should be spending federal research dollars on. Currently there are billions being spent on research by private concerns so that companies can make many more billions of dollars. Examples are bio-medical research, computer development, plastics research, and a multitude of other research projects.
Beggar the reason health care costs so much is because of the research and improvements done in the last 40 years. 40 years ago if you had a heart attack you died. There wasn't coronary bypasses, artificial hearts, heart transplants. 40 years ago there weren't burn centers or ICU's. I had a brother die because of burns which today he would have survived along with a huge medical bill.
BJC you would not have known about "spaceship earth" except for space technology.
Space technology has not only added to material sciences but to many other cost saving and life saving technologies. Communication satellites are not only used for normal communication but also for search and rescue. Communication to trucks and ships for better routing and information sharing. GPS which is also a technology used for killing people but also for saving people. Satellite imagining for a myriad of functions.
Why do we have many of these technologies, because of space exploration in the 60's. Mundane products such as metallized mylar, sun reflective coatings, and velcro came out of space exploration. Inertial guidance systems, high speed data communication and planetary physics also came from space exploration.
Space exploration has brought us not only technology but also created the desire and will to do something beyond what we are capable of today. It is money well spent.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

2
"China will make a manned moon landing at a proper time, around 2017," leading scientist Ouyang Ziyuan was quoted by the Southern Metropolis News as saying.

The United States unveiled a $104 billion plan in September to return Americans to the moon by 2018. Its Apollo program carried the first humans to the moon in 1969.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051104/sc_nm/energy_space_china_dc

The US is already one year behind in a twelve-year race.

The International Space Station was started by Ronald Reagan. "Tonight, I am directing NASA to develop a permanently manned space station and to do it within a decade." he said on January 25, 1984.

http://history.nasa.gov/reagan84.htm

The Space Station still is not finished. It may never be finished if the shuttle can't be fixed.

If we match our perfomance with the space station, we will need to obtain a Chinese stamp on our tourist visas to visit mankind's first lunar colony.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I'm sure many of you have read about this by now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator

I hope I see this within my lifetime (let's see....I've got 60+ more years).  I would even venture to say that the space elevator concept is far more feasible than a commercially-viable fusion reactor.  What do you think?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Correct me if I am wrong but I have thought about the space elevator. The biggest issue is getting the material into space to build the space elevator. Lets assume that the concept will work. The elevator must be 22,000 miles long to reach a synchronous orbit. Lets say the elevator has a mass of 100 lbs per foot of length. 22,000 miles x 5280 ft/mile x 100lbs/ft= 11616000000lbs = 5,808,000 tons. I am really a dreamer about space but have a hard time understanding how to get this much material into space to build the space elevator. Asteroids could be moved into position or mined for the material but again this is another new technology. Other technical issues would be the wind velocity that the elevator would experience in the atmosphere, earthquakes at a ground attachment site, tides at a floating attachment site, energy delivery to the lift mechanism of the elevator and orbital changes of the planet with this much mass in orbit above the earth. I believe this may be a great idea but creates enormous other technology issues.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Here's another article from an engineer's point of view:

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/aug05/1690

Also, how did you figure a linear mass density of 100 lbs/ft.  At the moment, a proof of concept hasn't even been established. It is said that within as little as 5 years, the feasibility of a space elevator will be determined.  The primary obstacle is in developing and manufacturing the carbon nanotube tether.  

I don't claim to be an expert on this subject, nor do I follow it religiously, but I can definitely say that it would tremendously impact humanity.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

kchida, maybe you need to check out the laws of spacecraft design, one of which says

"10. When in doubt, estimate. In an emergency, guess. But be sure to go back and clean up the mess when the real numbers come along."

Bill guessed. He came up with a huge final resulting mass. I think his guess was wrong, for all sorts of reasons, but at least it has given a context for answers. We aren't talking about spaceship technology, we are talking about a functioning manufaturing base in space of the same order of magnitude as the entire automobile industry of the USA.

That being said I am in favour of pursuing the space elevator.

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I think "serious about space" AND "manned mission to Mars" are not compatible concepts.  We need to crawl before we run.

"Getting serious" would first mean developing safe (for people, cargo, and planet's environment) and economical means for popping in and out of orbit, and maintaining a viable and useful manned presence in orbit.  Ultimately, it needs to be profitable, which means no NASA needs to find a comfy chair in the back of the history books.

I could be the world's greatest underachiever, if I could just learn to apply myself.
http://www.EsoxRepublic.com-SolidWorks API VB programming help

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

2
BillPSU is corect, but I would like to add that the original reason for the 1960's space rush to the moon likely had a different reason.

At that time (1960), there was a growing consensus in gov't that we needed to improve rocket launch technology in order to realize an effective nuclear deterrent. At that time, the failure rate of US rockets was of concern and marginally competitive the the Russians.

Not only did the huge amount of research dollars point the US universities in the direction of supporting the goal of better launch vehicles, but JFK's verbage added a vision that was probably in the minds of many college science students, and that vision ( of flying to the moon) was probably a more attractive thought than the real reason, ie, building a bigger and better strategic missile system. The vison thing worked, and there was a huge increase in science and engineering students in the 60's.

The missile and space industry  is now mature and does not need the same jump-start as was required in 1960, but it needs to address the normal issues of regeneration of staff as the grey hairs retire. There are other technology fields that might need a jump start, but it is hard to imagine that anyone in gov't feels as strongly about those new issues as was felt in 1960 regarding the "missile gap".

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)

Thank you BillPSU for your very lively adds to this discussion!

What astounds me is all the "logic" banter among so many of you: dollars, dollars, dollars! Where is all your sense of "challenge" and "adventure?" Have you been scrambling away at the rat race too long to sit back and star at the sky at night and allow yourselves to think about "what's out there?"

I'm not at all suggesting Federal dollars alone pay for this - private enterprise will take us farther and faster: it just has to have some assistance for the investment.

But for those of you "rational" thinkers out there - without even looking at the "hot button" social programs or corporate welfare programs our media hypes every election year - please PLEASE consider the "unheard-of" of OUR dollars. For example, while WE cannot even get forgiven a couple thousand dollars in back 401-K early withdrawal penalties or back taxes or whatever, WE somehow can ALWAYS and CERTAINLY afford to FORGIVE India's $4B debt to YOU and ME, or the BILLIONS in debt owed to us by so many other countries - 1st, 2nd, or 3rd world.

THAT'S where the money can come from: those who OWE you and me.

Chris in NC NASCAR Country

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)

$%^*((#$#! Blasted spell check!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Or better:

Don't forgive public debt AND don't waste money on NASA. How 'bout retiring some of our own public debt?

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RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Quote (whotmeworry):

What astounds me is all the "logic" banter among so many of you: dollars, dollars, dollars! Where is all your sense of "challenge" and "adventure?"

Isabella did not finance Columbus out of the goodness of her heart, nor did Columbus venture forth merely for the thrill of it.

Are we not trained to discern the driving forces behind what we wish to achieve?  As a driving force, money moves from where it is to where there is more money to be made.  "Serious about space" also means being serious about mastering the economic forces that will put us there.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
Nor did Columbus "discover" North America. When will the schools stop that nonsense?

How can any people stare at the Moon or at Mars or Saturn in a scope and - knowing we've ste foot on that dusty ball in our sky - shrug it off as not being a totally tossed off opportunity shamefully forgotten and wasted?

There are so mnany driving factors behind every "adventure" of humankind (PC term there). NASA this - NASA that. Get off the NASA thing. They're not the only option.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

NASA does have competition these days at OSIDA.

Look at what those Oklahoman's are doing at OSIDA:

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ok_spaceport_011210.html

Whats next, nuclear power plants in space, mining the moon and Mars, launching mini-planets from mars back near earth's orbit for inhabitation?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

We are at a point where our scientific dollars need to be spent carefully, since they decrease on an almost. The orbital program needs to be privatized and replaced. The last century we saw a rise in big defense contractors like bechtel and Haliburton, this century we'll see a rise in the private space companies. The first one to get a man (or men) in an orbit where satallite mantenance can occur will make oogles of money in the next few years. Then our govt. can award these companies big contracts to keep our fleets of sats flying and can spend the science dollars on genuine (non "immediately" commercial) ventures.

Hell, maybe we can even sell the "space station" to a "pharmasutical company consortium"!

Wes C.
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In this house, we OBEY the laws of thermodynamics! - Homer Simpson

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Great post just keepgiviner. We need a few more laughs around this serious group.

I hear Dilbert signed up for the Google job (trying to get away from the pointy hair guy).

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Getting serious about space is no longer easy. Even if we travel at the speed of light, we are not going past the crap of solar system to any useful thing. Given our present level of science and if one great president exclaims someday, "lets go to Jupiter" it may excite scientists but not the general public (votes) hassled with the taxes.

During sixties, it was a cold war period and public support for such programs was very high because of ego embedded in human nature. In present times, I do not think the political will can be garnered for such big missions.

Ciao.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I would love to see NASA shut down for two consecutive years, and their budget spent on alternative energy. Man we would have cars that ran on the exaust from our home generation units that run on the sewage generated by the household (or something like that).

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

When my Grandmother heard that humans had landed on the moon, she was angry because we had found another place to pollute. The 60s space race was more for political bragging rights than for humanity's benefit. The real question is whether the funds proposed for the space program can be put to better use elsewhere. I think they can and so do most people.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

To properly evaluate the space program and its benefits, I think you need to factor in the value of "space spinoffs".  Space spinoffs are those products and technologies that are by-products of space investment.

A Google search for "space spinoffs" should yield lots of reading material.  Here is one for starters:
NASA Spinoffs Bringing Space down to Earth

Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Cajun, I've always considered that line of reasoning flawed because it presumes that such spinoffs would/could not have been otherwise developed in the pursuit of other technologies.

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RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Anyone can say they might have happened otherwise, or that they might not have happened otherwise.  It is just as flawed to presume that such spinoffs would or could not have been otherwise developed as it is to presume that such spinoffs would have actually been developed otherwise.

In most of the spinoffs, it was the the unique and hostile environment of space that defined the need, or at least the circumstances around those problems in need of unique solutions.  The problems of getting you and everything you need into space, functioning safely in the hostile environment of space, and getting back home safely drove many of the technological developments.  

"Necessity is the mother of invention", and space travel created a lot of necessity which in turn, led to considerable invention.

You cannot argue with the spinoffs that DID happen, by whom, when, and under what circumstances.  Nor can you discount the benefits to us because of those development, and the length of time we've been able to enjoy that technology.

Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

The trouble with that, is that /if/ you regard nuclear power as a good thing then developing and using atomic bombs was a good idea.

The ends do not justify the means, necessarily.

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

==> The trouble with that, is that /if/ you regard nuclear power as a good thing then developing and using atomic bombs was a good idea.
That's a non-sequitur on several levels, the most basic being that just because something had a less than auspicious beginning doesn't mean it hasn't evolved into something quite useful.  Nor is it practical to throw away a technological advancement because you don't like who, how, or under what circumstances it was originally developed.  Further, if a beneficial application is the result of a spinoff, then it doesn't really fit into the means-end paradigm.  History is replete with serendipitous invention.

Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

several levels?

initial desired technology -> useful spinoff

spaceflight -> teflon (etc)
atomic bombs -> nuclear power (etc)

I think that works reasonably well as a broad brush comparison.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

==> The trouble with that, is that /if/ you regard nuclear power as a good thing then developing and using atomic bombs was a good idea. (emphasis mine)
The first non-sequitur is assuming that just because the ending spinoff is good, that the initial desired goal was also good.  The atomic bomb does not have to be good in order for nuclear power to be good.

A second non-sequitur is the "and using" attachment of use to development in making the comparison.  I submit there is no inherent lack of goodness in the development of atomic bombs, but there is considerable question about the goodness of using them.  The use was, although perhaps inevitable, not a necessary condition for the further and positive development of the spinoff.

Finally, why is that notion if troubling?

Good Luck
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As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

What is the engineer's estimate of the military superiority gained from space superiority (to take a phrase from air superiority)?

What are the ramifications of an imbalance of space control by governments?

Is there another technology that could give military superiority that would trump space superiority? (like quantum computers breaking all other nations crypto)

While the US slept peacefully after WWI, Japan and Germany advanced military technology to dangerous superiority levels.

What is the safe level of spending to limit the disaster of that could take place if the wrong people got too much power.

I would posit that it is incumbent upon the responsible people to make sure a dangerous gap does not exist in space superiority.  Of course the responsible people would take the blame for not spending the money on obvious good things for the poor and those that do not want to take care of themselves or just can't.  But it is also irresponsible to not take care of those very same people by not letting the "bad guys" gain too much of a superiority.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Visigoth asked: What is the engineer's estimate of the military superiority gained from space superiority (to take a phrase from air superiority)?

I think that the first nation that establishes effective control of space and deploys large numbers of weapons in space will establish effective control of the oceans. This will give that nation the same advantages of sea power that allowed Britain to defeat Napoleonic France and the Allies to win both World Wars.

For example, what happens if China decides to invade Taiwan in 2015? The US Navy has about 250 ships. It is estimated that in ten years China's Navy will be roughly the same size as the US Navy. This would normally create a balance of power, but space-based weapons could change everything.

Imagine that China launches several hundred one-ton payloads of antishipping weapons into low Earth orbit. If China develops radar satellites (RORSATs), then they could locate US ships anywhere on the planet. The weapons would be guided by the Galileo navsats which China and Europe are building already. If China deorbited all of the weapons at the same time, then 250 US Navy ships would have at least one warhead moving at more than 7 km per second headed directly for them. Larger ships such as carriers would have multiple weapons targeting them. I do not know of any existing defense that could stop such weapons.

The US Navy could suffer a global version of Pearl Harbor. It isn't too far fetched to assume that most of the US surface Navy could be sunk or severely damaged in a single hour. American supercarriers could become the 21st century equivalent of WWII battleships: dangerous at close range but extremely vulnerable to attack by weapons with a longer range deployed from a new environment.

After that, the Chinese could take Taiwan and then blockade the Persian Gulf and take over the world's oil supply. In ten years Europe will be effectively demilitarized, so they won't be able to stop them. The Russian Navy is rusting to death. Who else has a significant Navy? Japan? India?

It isn't too fantastic to imagine the Chinese building 500 or 1000 orbital antishipping weapons. The US deployed thousands of ICBMs during the Cold War. China has demonstrated that it can launch heavy payloads into orbit. China will be the world's largest manufacturer by 2015. If they decide to outbuild the US in a new arms race, they will have many more trained engineers and a greater manufacturing capacity.

What is the US doing to meet this potential challenge? The Shuttle is grounded. Congress just authorized the purchase of two Russian spacecraft and rockets to keep the space station operating. The space station was ordered in 1984 and still isn't finished and delivered. NASA plans to go back to the moon - one year later than the Chinese, in 2018.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

BitTwiddler,

Are you really sure that China plans to do this? Does China desire world domination or merely regional domination? Should the USA plan for this scenario in advance or should it wait until it draws closer to reality? Other countries don't seem to be worried, why should we? Why does it seem that there is always some enemy out there that the USA needs to fight to protect the world?

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I don't know what China intends to do. I was simply answering the questions VisiGoth asked.

Other countries implicitly rely on the US to keep the peace in the Pacific. China wants Taiwan and has a longstanding policy to use force if necessary to reclaim it. China is the only country in the Pacific which is a plausible threat to US interests in the near future.

The US doesn't seem to be fully aware of the growing might of China. Perhaps China will remain at peace for the rest of the century. Perhaps not. If they choose to fight the US, we would have a real problem stopping them, and control of space could be the key factor in deciding the outcome of the conflict.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

BitTwiddler,
thanks for the excellent analysis.  I always wondered just what good space did for the military, I thought it was great for surveillance put poor for delivery of rocks or fire.

EddyC,
China has already proposed their increasing circle, and the move to Taiwan seems to be in 2008 or 2009.  I tend to agree with those who think the arrogance level as exhibited in the Chinese American clubs (between the original Chinese and the new pro Beijing Chinese gaining power in the clubs) is so high that they will attack before the Beijing Olympics.  Hitler waited. He had both winter and summer Olympics in 1936 but waited until November to invade.  Also, Bejing needs the intelectual property boost of Taiwan for it's space program, so they would need to invade before they can gain massive space superiority.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

It's not just surveillance.  It also includes meteorolgy, communications, navigation, and others.  If you could knock out the GPS satellites, and kill the communications satellites, losing TV service would be the least of your problems.  

Another aspect that we've not touched on yet is the value of basic scientific research.  Having the ability to look back at the earth from space has been immeasureable in our studying of the environment, global warming, ocean currents, weather forecasting and warnings, and who knows how much else.  Further, what we've learned by looking out, without the distortion of our atmosphere, or from other launched probes has been invaluable in the growth of scientifc knowledge.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Scientific megaprojects are ALL a waste of our collective resources.  Space exploration, supercolliders, nuclear fusion- you name it- they may be interesting, but they're hardly a defensible way to spend public money.  Those PUBLIC monies could be much better spent for the betterment of the human condition if they were broken up amongst tens of thousands of smaller, more narrowly-focused technological development projects.  Such projects are not only easier to manage (ie. they're less likely to be corrupted for private gain), but they're also far more likely to yield products of near-term benefit to humanity.

For the record, Teflon wasn't developed for the space program.  It was an accident of materials research in the 1930s.  Many of the technological developments attributed to the space program are made on very tenuous causal links as a political means to justify further expenditures of public monies.  Those monies predominantly flow into the hands of large contractors whose principal other source of funding is military spending.  Funding space exploration for the technological benefits derived therefrom is the "trickle-down" theory of technological development, and it's just as much bunkum in the technological sphere as it is in economic terms.  

New materials, and novel uses for existing materials- both arise daily in response to new and existing needs.  The capitalist marketplace funds this process.  There's no more need for space exploration to spur materials development than there is a need for another world war for the same purpose.

All space exploration or war does is provide a focal point for public opinion to loosen the public pursestrings.  More worthy causes related to the actual reduction of human suffering somehow aren't as "sexy" as they're not tied up with national ego.  That fact speaks volumes about how twisted our values have become.

If you want space exploration done, set up a charitable foundation and put your own discretionary spending into the pursuit of your interest.  Leave public money, collected using the taxation powers of the state, for uses of wider public benefit.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
Hey Visigoth:

Regarding your statement: "What is the engineer's estimate of the military superiority gained from space superiority (to take a phrase from air superiority)?"

I cannot tell you.

But nor could the Air Mail "Jenny" flyer or the barn stormer of the 20's and 30's have estimated / anticipated the Messerschmidt Me-262 "Swallow" jet fighter, the V-2 rocket, or even flying so high as to require Oxygen masks.

How depressing there are so many people mired in "temporary humanity" that they cannot see the riches in scientific and economic adventure.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
Ahhhh, bit Twiddler!

How refreshing is your scholarship and geopolitical foresight! A fine breath of fresh air sweeping over a swill of commentary from "socially minded" nay-sayers!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
Eddy C:

I hope your questions are retorical regarding China. Stunning how many Americans have no concept of the Russo-China agreements of 1996-2001. They may make pretty kitch and cheap clothes, but they are not at all our friends.

Remember Neville Chamberlain!

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)
Moltenmetal:

That's quite a chip on your shoulder.

Regarding your Comment that we "leave public money, collected using the taxation powers of the state, for uses of wider public benefit," there will be arguments ad-nauseum for time ad-infinitum about defining that better good.

We all get mad at programs we don't feel we should pay for, and there are surely a multitude of tax-funded programs under the guise of "social welfare" or "public good" that are as equally corrupt as you allude to about non-socially oriented programs.

You might be surprise to know that in the Federalist and Anti-Federalist arguments in the later 1700s and early 1800s, our Founding Fathers abhored the idea of Federal taxation. If you revisit these arguments, you'll be surprised that Madison, Washington, Adams, and especially Jefferson feared that these taxes would become the pig troughs of special interests and corruption by a greedy public all looking for their share.

Sound familiar. We've made the very mistake they attempted so very hard to prevent.

As for corruption, as long as religious institutions remain as corrupted as they are, I'm sorry that you and I will have to wince at corruption for a long time.

cheers!


RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

whotmeworry:  I've earned my cynicism fair and square, like all frustrated idealists.

I'm not against taxation and government expenditure as a principle.  Far from it- taxation is the only means we have to redress the natural tendency of capitalism to concentrate wealth in fewer and fewer hands.  Rather, I'm against the use of significant quantities of public funds for projects of questionable societal benefit.  When the argument is made about a project that there is little to no direct public benefit, but we should trust that vast benefits will "trickle down" from the public expenditure of vast sums of money, my bullsh*t detector starts ringing.  I agree that it's better to "waste" this money on scientific megaprojects than it is to not collect it in the first place and leave it in the bond accounts of the super-wealthy.  Even "wasted" taxation money circulates to some degree in the economy.

I'm not against space exploration or pure research- there is definitely merit in doing work to enhance our understanding rather than merely to solve smaller technological problems.  What I am against is scientific megaprojects in general.  I'd rather see the public money distributed amongst larger numbers of smaller projects.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

I am surprised that a collection of engineers would offer opinions on a mega project without asking or stating what the costs and the benefits are expected to be. One would think that such a decision would require justification and planning.

There are suppressed rumors that we have a budget deficit of rotund proportions, and that it would ( or rather, should) have long term implications on planning for discretionary mega projects. If such projects are pursued without a stated rationale or justification, we could expect that spending  trend would lead to an inflationary spiral that would make the 1979-1982 period look conservative.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

The lowly sewer has contributed more to humanity than the space program. But the space program is technically more interesting than the sewer and therefore more appealing to engineers. But public money raised via taxation should go to projects that have more bang for the buck than the space program.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Are you serious?  The American's went to the moon?  I thought that was a hoax!

I thought this thread was going to discuss the urban space issues facing America today, such as suburban growth taking away all the farmland.  Now that's space in which to be concerned.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Farmland in Illinois USA is being covered over quite quickly.  It is cutting into some of the lushest deep dark dirt farmland in the world.  It seems to be a real shame.  There are some low level local efforts, but the economics seem to overrule.  Maybe some day we can peal back the black top from the strip mall parking lots and start to spot farm them.  Maybe when the housing bubble bursts the growth will slow down and the trend will be to move back into the cities.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

There was a city mouse.... and there was a country mouse... there never was a suburban mouse. Even if there was, we'd die from boredom reading about his life...

Sometimes big projects that would advance science have gotten short changed for bigger projects that would appeal to the "american public." An example of this is the superconducting supercolider... it was axed for this so called space station. By the time NASA and it's governmental consortium gets around to completing it, that guy from Vegas, will be offering you and me discout weekends for his orbiting hotel.!

Maybe if we Americans really wanted to get serious about funding science (not just space) we would take up a national bond measure. That would tie congress's hands from porking out the science budget, and fund some major project to completion (as opposed to the several half complete half brained billion dollar baby hueys that we have now). We can all spare $1 per month for 3 years... as sally struthers says, "it's less than 4 cents a day." I mean 10.8 billion could complete at least one of the projects....

Wes C.
------------------------------
When they broke open molecules, they found they were only stuffed with atoms. But when they broke open atoms, they found them stuffed with explosions...

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Maybe is the right time to open those locked drawers and bring back to light the ideas and inventions of Nikola Tesla.

Transmitting energy from one point to another without wires, that could push realy forward the humankind.

-Hora

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Aye, or we could make little harnesses and fit them to fairies to lift the spaceships up.

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

Get your own faeries!  Mine are all booke sinning perpetual motion devices.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

(OP)

Egads, Batman! I've created a monster!

Look what this thread has degenerated into!

chris in NC Wine Country

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

To be fair, if Tesla were as good a salesman (read bull___er) as Edison was, we might be sitting around balking at Edison's ideas.....hmmm scratch that, Edison stole most of Tesla's good ideas anyway.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

To try and make a point back on the original thread, I honestly believe that we need to pursue space travel and exploration for one simple, selfish reason.  At some point in time, we as humankind on Earth will go extinct.  You can speculate about the reason behind it - several options are even presented in this thread:

- China decides to take over the world and we have to fight them with nukes (both land and potentially space-based)

- Big asteroid smacks into our planet

- Our current modes of energy use eventually make our planet uninhabitable

But the one consistent thought is that Earth is a single point of failure.  Once it goes, humankind does too.  Now I realize that the timing of this may be on a geologic scale or that life may rise again (depending on your views on that whole debate) but honestly I seriously believe that humans should be investing in their perservation on a long-term basis.  Yes, we can also invest in alternative fuels, affordable healthcare, feeding the starving people (many more of those that ones that are worried about space travel) but none of that gets us out of our current one-planet situation.

I recognize that we as humans with our massive brains and complex societies have an ability to react to and possibly even control these cataclismic events that threaten our existence.  I also believe that we as humans are sometimes a little full of ourselves or don't know as much as we think.  We should be hedging our bets that this arrogance doesn't cook our collective butts.  Let's use that arrogance to our advantage by saying "Yep - the solar system, much less our galaxy, is a huge place and we have no idea how to explore it right now.  So let's see what we can come up with."  I'd be happy if we spent 1% of our annual defense budget in the USA on space.  Notice I didn't say NASA - we have to use those funds wisely and their track record of late doesn't look "wise" to me.

Feel free to label me dilusional or idealistic or anything else that pokes holes in my argument.  We can accomplish truly great things as humans once our society decides the costs are worth it.  History has proven that sentiment, particularly in the areas of science and engineering when it comes to perceived threats outside our borders (the Manhattan Project comes to mind).  You want to see our space program kick into high gear?  Let some astronomer spot an asteroid the size of Texas that will smack us in a year.  Too bad we're only scanning something like 3% of the sky right now.  Or if you really want some action, let some alien race show up in orbit.  Even if they are totally peaceful, we can count on our warmongers to start directing SERIOUS funds into space-based research.

RE: Americans need to get serious again about space!

PsionSaint: Yes.

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