Forecast Methodology
Forecast Methodology
(OP)
Hi, Any suggestions on improving our manufacturing forecasts. Currently it is mainly based on word of mouth occurring between our sales guys (girls) and the customers. Can anybody refer me to good literature on the subject. Our forecasts seem to be plus/minus 50% off and I hope we can improve on this. Thanks for the comments!
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Nate
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Nate





RE: Forecast Methodology
A simple plot of data by month for year after year data should at least show if your business is cyclical and/or growing year after year.
TTFN
RE: Forecast Methodology
Regards,
RE: Forecast Methodology
One of the best places I've found is trade associations. They tend to track sales by industry against various factors. Once you understand what these are you can begin to compare your company's performance against some norms to see if the variation is internal or global.
Also check with them as to whether they look at "Best practices". Might get you started.
Griffy
It ain't necessarily what you know but how quickly you can find out who does!
RE: Forecast Methodology
RE: Forecast Methodology
Since your business is cyclical, you can simply project historically by month, e.g., collect all historical data by calendar month and see where they're going.
TTFN