Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
(OP)
Please read the following article:
htt p://news.b bc.co.uk/1 /hi/world/ americas/4 254877.stm
Any comments?
Will the Kyoto accord coming into effect cause the US to change its position on emissions?
I realize that many people don't believe that the US is a major polluter and that the 3rd world is doing all the polluting. Please refrain from dragging that arguement into this thread. The main issue is that other countries are going to be buy/selling/devloping new technologies to reduce emissions. Will the US be majorly involved?
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Any comments?
Will the Kyoto accord coming into effect cause the US to change its position on emissions?
I realize that many people don't believe that the US is a major polluter and that the 3rd world is doing all the polluting. Please refrain from dragging that arguement into this thread. The main issue is that other countries are going to be buy/selling/devloping new technologies to reduce emissions. Will the US be majorly involved?





RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
1) Is the US likely to engage in the worlwide effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to pre- 1990 levels?
and
2) Will the US engage itself in the Kyoto Accord, which puts in place economic penalties if nations do NOT meet this goal by the stated deadline?
The answer to 1) is no. The US will make token efforts, perhaps better than the efforts of some Kyoto signatories, but when push comes to shove they will not put in the effort required to meet this target. The US is ideologically and politically incapable of doing so at this time. Businesses dependent on the pyramid scam known as "economic development" have near-complete political control in the US, and they also determine a significant portion of both the perception AND the reality of public sentiment in the US.
The answer to 2) is HELL NO! The US will not become a signatory, regardless what half-hearted pressure the rest of the world puts on them. The US feeling is that its money is better spent at home reducing its own emissions rather than subsidizing the non-consumption of developing nations. This is in line with the US's position on most multilateral issues like the Landmines Treaty, the International Court of Justice etc. etc. Not great foreign policy, and not in its own long-term best interests, but at least it's consistent...
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I work in the Fossil Power industry, so from my slant I am tired of all the blame that gets placed on Fossil power plants in the US. Yes, we do emit combustion by-products like simple and combined cycle units, like other industries, like automobiles, buses, trucks, airplanes and homes that burn fossil fuel in the winter, and so on and so forth...
I am all in favor of a cleaner environment, and are you and others willing to pay for advanced air emission upgrades at US Power Plants or perhaps building new units using coal gasification technology or supercritical fossil units? Someone will have to pay for this because these air emission upgrades or new fossil units are certainly not for free. Of course, when it comes to "pay up" or "shut up" most tend to prefer the latter.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
When real science is used, the Kyoto accord becomes an unrealistic and usless goal to achieve in a world theater based on the underlying goal of reducing global warming and this is where I believe the US based its decision not to join.
Junk science (and engineering) is pervasive in todays society. This accord prooves that main stream science can be manipulated to achieve laypersons goals.
To answer your quaestions: I believe the Kyoto accord will have an impact on how the US manages emmissions, but not throught adopting the accord. I think restrictive trade limitations imposed by others will force the US to modify its current practices.
The US should not sign to Kyoto based on poor science and the unconnected goals it is trying to achieve which are all based in junk science.
I believe the US is already involved quite heavily in reducing pollution that affects people, all over the world. The US is leading the way, unlike the signatories to Kyoto that will trudge forward harming the very people they inted to protect.
Just my informed opinion.....
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
why is the science behind Kyoto junk,
and what is the US doing to reduce pollution
and how is it leading the way?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The US, under pressure from both domestic and foreign interests, is, through the EPA, advancing technology that reduces pollution from the proposed worst contributors, mainly cars and power generation.
The US is leading the way with respect to technology that is used to treat and remove pollutants from dischagres.
The Kyoto accord is a political document, which has been sadly mistaken as a scientific document. We (engineers and scientists) need to remain on the path of letting data speak the truth through our eyes for the world to see.
Yes I do have a strong and informed opinion on Kyoto, because it is so sad for me to see that our profession is manipulated so easly by others for their own benefit or political agenda. The accord will fail, and the sooner the better in my opinion, so that the real science has a chance to make it out to the world.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I have not seen the hockey stick data, but I do know the earth cannot support infinite growth of population and industry. Ultimately it comes down to the fact that we need to eat and breath and up to now we only have one planet on which to do this. If the direction we are headed now is compromising both of those needs, should we not work towards adopting a less destructive behaviour?
does it not worry you
-that there are more violent storms than there once were,
-that the ice caps are melting at an alarming rate and that the rain forests are being clear cut (this will have a definite impact on regions way beyond where these events are actually taking place)
-that there are actual data showing that there has been an actual increase in temperature (not going to go look for the data but heard on the radio that the 4 warmest years on record have occured in the last seven years or so, with 3 of these 4 being these past three years)
As engineers should we not stop being manipulated by sales&marketing and insist that more efficient methods&technologies be used wherever possible. In many cases, the technology is there - we simply need to embrace it.
ha what a coincidence - my husband just emailed me from home to tell me that it's +11C (52F)outside, and the robins have returned to the yard. Robins and +11C did not happen in the middle of February in Eastern Canada when I was a kid. Climate change is happening.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
You and Kyoto assume that we (humanity) are the root of the problem. This conclusion has not been supported by scientific data to date, nor do I believe it will be supporten anytime in the future. To have the people behind the Kyoto Protocol define their complex computer modeling of the future conditions used to support Kyoto as "fanciful storytelling" is more scary than the topic of global warming as they have defined it.
Where does your concern for violent storms come from and do you feel Kyoto will address this? My feelings from the limited (i say limited because I am a scientist and the data set for storm tracking goes back only to the mid 19th century with any accuracy) data is that there is no significant increase in storm activity and this is supported by scientists for the insurance underwriters industry here in the US. This is a Kyoto farse and scare tactic of the environmental left.
Deforrestation is a bad thing however, I do not see Kyoto imporving this and in fact, I see Kyoto increasing deforrestation as it allows developing countries to industrialize over and above their current status. Some science shows that as levels of CO2 increase, vegetation shows a corresponding increase in density due to the availability of this nutrient.
As for temp increase, again, with the limited data, one can not draw accurate scientific conclusions as rise or fall. Using the argument in Kyoto, I would argue that during the 1970's, we were in danger of entering an ice age which was predicted to last several thousands of years and that global warming would be a good thing. Again, the data do not support drawing conclusions about future conditions as the past 100 to 200 years of data compared to the real historical record that would impact us of 2 to 5 million years ago is merely a tick on the earth time clock.
Your Robins are responding to a change in climate that we scientists and engineers know is driven by natural cycles of climate and time. Kyoto places inhumane restrictions upon the human race that will reduce the quality of life for hundreds of millions, with no benefit to anyone. Is this human suffering worth the cost, with Kyoto I say no.
I do agree that climate change is happening, I don't agree that we are influencing this change with the significance as demonstrated in Kyoto.
this is an interesting conversation...professional sparring keeps us all on out toes...
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Kyoto makes me sick to my stomach, and my non-support for the protocol is what I am doing to save the environment!!!
All too often, people don't look at both sides of the issue. I look at both sides, which are always extreme, to understand the middle ground. I like being on the moddle ground, because I feel that society is best served from policy makers who are also on this middle ground with me.
I like you synopsis on air pollution. With the current regulations, the state of Florida is non-compliant with EPA regulations due to background concentrations of particulate matter that blow into the state of the trade winds from Africa. Now, even though there are high levels of particle concentrations in the state, industry must still clean the air to lower levels of particulate than is ambient just so they can discharge polluted air into the "clean" environment. It is this type of madness that is so pervasive in Kyoto only the madness isn't even based in science which makes it environmental propaganda.
BobPE
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
One side has money the other side has science. It's corporations with money and various RWWS vs a few Nobel Lauriats.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
You make reference to the two extremes in the issue and the extremes create junk science, but as I stated, the truth is in the middle somewhere as the middle excludes junk science by defination.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I do not believe that
helping the environment = human suffering.
How have you come to such a conclusion?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Read up on Kyoto. As it is written, Kyoto will not improve or help the environment, again, based on real science, and not what is included in the Protocol.
The cost to comply with Kyoto is astronomical for all those involved. Costs are now starting to be incurred by those that ratified the protocol. This diversion of monies away from those people that need it for real issues that impact their daily lives will cause human suffering, in the case of Kyoto, on a massive scale.
I find the topic of CFC's (refridgerants) to be a good example to use. CFC's were banned (again on junk science) world wide. Everyone believed this was great for humanity. What I found most disturbing is that the majority of 3rd world countries were just getting refridgeration that was dramatically improving their lives. The elimination of CFC's drastically impacted (and continues to do so) these people as their source of refridgeration (which was made available due to the combined efforts of thousands of good hearted people in the early 21st century) is now unaffordable to them. They cannot upgrade to other refridgerants as the equipment will not accomodate them and the cost is too great. Now, in following the junk science of banning CFC's, many people and governments made drastic changes that allowd CFC's to be eliminated drawing funds from the very people that need them the most. Their continued suffering to this day is our (scientists and engineers) fault for letting laypeople manipulate data that belongs in our world to be interpreted by us.
I firmly believe that helping the environment does not equate to human suffering.......and subsequently, should never equate to human suffering.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Can it also be possible to keep the topic on a technical matter as QCE intended, and not just on gossip?
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I am glad I could shed some light on the impact of CFC's to those fellow humans in many 3rd world countries, it is not a lack of refridgerators, it is a lack of redfidgerant. Now that you are aware, you may be sensitive to the data available and may find more information.
The Kyoto protocol is a large document, by design to confuse. A digested version I often use goes like this:
"The expected increase in temperature with business as usuall vrs that with Kyoto is 1.92 degrees C (higher for the business as usuall approach) in year 2100." Reference Source: Wigley 1998.
It is unwise to justify such a tiny slice out of the predicted (with science other than that used for Kyoto) temperature rise as this is a poor use of resources and the funds could be used more effectively to eliminate human suffering in the developing world.
Read both sides of the issue...
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
-that there are more violent storms than there once were-
What gives you the impression that the climate on our planet is static? A scientist would be a fool to state the climatic change is the exception on our planet in the past (and using logic, in the future). Why would anyone be so insecure as to believe that mankind cannot adapt to the natural changes in climate? Note: I said natural. The earth has gone through cycles that have been both warmer and colder than it is now. So who are you going to blame for the climate changes in the past?
-that the ice caps are melting at an alarming rate and that the rain forests are being clear cut (this will have a definite impact on regions way beyond where these events are actually taking place)-
Canada logs aggressively on the West Coast with limited environmental concerns. In contrast, it is no longer profitable for logging in Southeast Alaska due to stringent environmental regulations. What are you doing about the environmentally insensitive logging that takes place in Canada? Who is to blame for the ice caps melting 6,000 years ago when most of Canada was under ice? Do you think if the Kyoto accord was enacted 6,000 years ago, that Canada would still be under ice?
Seeing that the ice caps have been retreating over Canada during the last 6,000 years, it would surprise me if the planet wasn’t under a warming trend.
My recommendations for global warming:
1. Don’t waste time trying to affect the planets weather. The unintended consequences of such action may be disastrous. There has been a history of unintended consequences when looking at political action in the past.
2. Invest in technology that will enable the world to adapt to the changes.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Back to your original question.
"Will the Kyoto accord coming into effect cause the US to change its position on emissions?"
The question should be "Will the Kyoto accord coming into effect have an economic effect on the US?" and the answer is yes, weather or not we sign on.
If your the owner of a smoke stack industry it causes you problems in the short term ( and short term thinking is the norm for american corporations).
The enire Koyto accord is 33 pages long and doesn't say much.
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As engineers we should look at it as an opportunity not a problem.
We have a few well financed groups who are trying to convince us that it's voodoo science an we shouldn't make them clean up their act ( again American short term corporate thinking- we don't want to miss our bonus next year).
In the meantime the rest of the world is going ahead. Right or wrong a lot of the equipment, processes and other engineering needed to comply with the provisions of the accord are going to be engineered and manufactured somewhere else. We could do it better here but if our leaders have their head in the sand, I'm sure the engineers in India, Germany, France, Canada etc will do a fine job.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Countries that ratified with a surplus of credits; countries that have experienced a contraction in industrialization since 1990 (Russia, France and Japan) have much to gain from this.
Another minor issue is that CO is NOT pollution; it's not toxic and is required for plants to thrive.
The protocol is a form of wealth redistribution on a global scale.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The main issue for engineers in the US is that they will slip even further behind the rest of the world in developments in energy efficient systems.
[aside] I was watching a military parade the other day, and was amused to hear a proud father shout out 'Hey look everyone - my son is the only one in step!'[/aside]
Good Luck
johnwm
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RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Are you denying there is a direct relation between CFCs and stratospheric ozone depletion?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
What I am saying is that the potential for damage caused by CFC has been drastically overstated. The data used as the frame work for the rule banning CFC's eliminated the top 2 contributors to stratospheric chlorine in the statistical analysis of CFC's. When these top two contributors are added back into the equation, CFC are several orders of magnitude away from the top sources of chlorine that is available to react. But of course, the top two sources are caused naturally, so an assumption was made by scientists that although these two sources were the primary reason chlorine is available to react, it didn't fit their pre determined conclusion and they wre omitted, and I might add these scientists, at least in early reports, stated this assumption (good science, poor assumption, but not junk science). It was not until the rule was generally presented to the public that this assumption was ommited (the scientsts involved at this point were junk scientists).
Yes, chlorine contributes to stratoshperic ozone depletion, but CFC's do not significantly contribute to statospheric ozone depletion when all the data is analyzed. I am not denying the CFC link, the data is.
I believe that was one of the biggest environmental scams undertaken to date. now that is a tough opinion to have since that is not the main stream opinion, that is the fun part about being and engineer, we know to look for the data, determine its accuracy, and can understand what it is telling us. What we do with that knowledge is what concerns me.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It is interesting to note, for me at least, that most regulations on air pollution aren't all-embracing.
For example, people spend about 70% of their time inside buildings, for work or leisure, and especially at home.
Air pollution norms do not refer to closed places such as those.
It has been shown, that in a regular house kitchen where petroleum-derived gases are being burnt, the concentration of NOx is 3 to 4 times that found on regular surroundings ! Pollution-fighters have nothing to say about that ?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
LOL...everyone knows that the Bedouins are a nomadic peoples. Their need for refridgeration centers on communities that they reach out to. Most of these communities have organizations that can afford upgraded refridgeration.
My friend just came back from Africa where they visited several remote communities being assisted by the PeaceCorps. Refridgerant there is a black market item that consists primarily of recycled CFC mainly the USA. Often times, more money is spent of CFC than for medicines storred in the fridge. These are only a few remote locations, but when you consider that most of the population of the world lives in similar remote locations, the need becomes evident. Mechanical equipment has migrated to these areas over many years. The drastic stopping of CFC production impacts these people as new mechanical equipment will take years to filter its way to these people to replace what we have regulated out of existance (it is tough for most of them to call Sears to order a new compliant fridge). So, I can imagine, a population that has grown accostomed to medications that need refridgeration will just have to grin and bare it till some new do gooders replace their equipment. My opinion is no and it is a travesty that the misinterpretation of science is harming these people.
You don't read about this in main stream press, which is probably why you are busting on me (i dont mind BTW).
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Yes I do think that Canada seriously needs to review the way it is managing its forests.
I am not here to criticize the US position, simply to better understand the reasons behind it and to understand what Americans intends to do while we tackle the Kyoto goals.
I am surprised that this thread has not had more input from countries involved in Kyoto.
bye, it's been interesting.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
My question was looking for answers towards questions such as:
1. Denmark and Germany have pulled way ahead of the US in wind power technology because there government is supporting green energy industry. Other "Kyoto" countries are going to be focusing on green power. Will the USA miss the boat on this type of technology because they don't support "Kyoto"?
I'm not saying Kyoto is good or bad but it is a fact. It does not matter if countries that have joined make the quota or not. We are talking about technology development and spending on this technology development.
Someone mentioned that the US is leading the way in emission reducing technology. I don't see this. I see the US sitting they’re saying we are right for not joining Kyoto and you are wrong. All the while green power companies all over the world are developing away. Countries like Denmark may actually benefit from Kyoto because they are making so much money from wind power development. So much for the huge cost of implementing Kyoto.
Yes the left is fear mongering that the world will be destroyed but the right is also fear mongering that your economy will go bust if you reduce emissions. If a country chooses to be a world leader in reducing emissions I think there economy will be just fine.
I don't think Canada or the US has chosen this road.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
"EU15 greenhouse gas emissions decline after two years of increases." The news release explained that in 2002 the EU15's emissions were 0.5 percent lower than the year before.
If it is true the European economy must be in a mess compared to the US economy!
It is the US opinion that - "The Kyoto Treaty will cause the signatures major economic problems."
Any comment Bob? I only select Bob because he has been so good at replying to these types of challenges and he seems to holding up his argument pretty well.
Bob I would like to point out that for years Americain were convinced that DDT and smoking was not bad for you. In particular the majority of Americains believed that DDT being bad was "junk science". Is there a chance that global warming is "junk science" that is partially correct? It is just so weird to here someone be so confident in knowing the answer when noone knows the answer.
Also an open question:
If global warming is a hoax - would it not still be good to reduce emissions?
I think that most will agree that emissions are not good. I don't think that Canada will be as successful in reducing its emissions but at least they will give it a go. It may be econmic bust it might be economic success. However I don't agree that like many think "It WILL be economic bust!"
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Funny, I wonder what all those thousands of towers with propellers are doing out there in the desert between San Antonio and El Paso Texas if they aren't generating power. Especially when they belong to a company called Green Mountain Power.
Also kind of funny, last time I was in Holland, the Dutch were talking about removing wind turbines. Seems they kill birds, make noise, and pollute the view.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
EEA Report
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Other countries will be spending more on technologies to reduce emissions because of Kyoto (don't focus on the Kyoto part). Do you think the US will also start to spend more on these technologies?
I personnelly think that they won't. Next question:
Do you think that if the US does not start spending more on these technologies that they will fall behind in these technologies?
Next question:
Do you think it matters if the US falls behind in these technologies?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I've been hearing for years that reduced emissions and economic success is just impossible! IMPOSSIBLE!!!
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I appreciate the peer to peer sparring, it is great that we get to talk about things like this.
you asked:
Bob I would like to point out that for years Americain were convinced that DDT and smoking was not bad for you. In particular the majority of Americains believed that DDT being bad was "junk science". Is there a chance that global warming is "junk science" that is partially correct? It is just so weird to here someone be so confident in knowing the answer when noone knows the answer.
I am not confident I know the answer to much, and certainly not what we are talking about. I am confident that I understand the data, and it is the data that tell all who understand, what the truth is.
Is the mean global temp rising? Yes. Can we determine what this trend means? No. You have to remember, the mean global temp was falling in the 1970's and we engineers were devising ways to tap undersea methy hydrate deposits tin order to relaease methane into the atmosphere to inchrease the green house effect. Do we know more now that then? No. Global cooling discussions were just as silly as global warming discussions. These discussions make it to the frot line media and laypeople interprete them to suit their needs at the time, thus Kyoto.
I would argue the DDT issue, I believe that a lot of people are now dead and people will continue to die without the use of DDT. It is still used in parts of the world becuase of its ability to save lives. If used properly, it was a wonderful chemical. I think if we focused our efforts on its proper use, the world today would have even a better place for a lot more people.
Smoking, well....I won't argue that one...again, the data paint the true story, in my opinion.
You also asked:
If it is true the European economy must be in a mess compared to the US economy!
It is the US opinion that - "The Kyoto Treaty will cause the signatures major economic problems."
For the first part, I give you the EU.
For the second part, I don't believe the US was initially driven by economic concerns. The government asked our scientists to look at the data and render an opinion on Kyoto. Our government listened to the scientists that looked at all the data and not to those scientists that looked at the corrupt data set. I think it was a good decision.
I live in the middle of no where, an I have a wind farm right down the street. What am I missing with GE's pioneering wind turbine technology? Have the Germans invented a way to make the wind blow more steadily?
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
BTW, a large part of the fuel cell technology being developed today is being done here in the US, there must be some incentive for that.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Yes, but not through govermental mandate. If there is an ecomonic gain (profit) to be had, the private sector will investigate and develope new "green" technologies without govermental directive in the US.
"Do you think that if the US does not start spending more on these technologies that they will fall behind in these technologies?"
Yes, 'IF' they do not start spending money. But I think that by having Kyoto force the EU15 to meet standards, who's to say that a US company won't develope new technologies and export them to the Kyoto members? This ties into my answer to #1 above.
"Do you think it matters if the US falls behind in these technologies?"
Yes.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It's not about science, it's about money. It's about people who are paniced becasue someone thinks their going to have lower their life style degraded because some guy in Africa get a fridge to keep his beer in.
The real science, here and around the world is in direct oppositon with the "science" being cited in oposition to Kyoto. If it's junk science it ain't near as bad as "political" science.
While Americans are moaning and groaning somewhere someone is designing photvoltaic roofing that will power a thermoelectric refridgerator. That's just one opportunity. There was a time when we would be leading the way with products and technology and capture the markets that go with them. It's an opportunity to act, unfortunatly were just using it to cry in our beer.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Do you think if the first Kyoto is successful we would just stop and wait to see what will happen?
I always hear from groups - Kyoto will not work - we need a better plan. Well why doesn't the US or any other group that opposes Kyoto suggest a better plan. Let me guess it is in the works. Well while the US works on the "plan" that will be better some other countries have gone ahead and started to implement something. I hope the US will try and catch up.
Back to Bob:
Do you really think that the government can't direct the development of new technology? I agree that the private sector would do a better job once it is developed.
Wind technology has greatly improved since those fields full of 1000's of 250kW wind mills went into the states.
Noise and bird fatalities are no longer major issues with the new technology. The eye sore will be an issue. I perfer a field of wind turbines to a coal fired power station.
250kW to 4.5MW - now that is progress!
Are you talking about Enron Wind - GE Wind?
Do you think California is silly to try and reduce emissions?
Do you think California's economy will be hurt by the reductions?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Which claims are right-wing junk, which claims are left-wing junk, and which are scientifically motivated?
Hg
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
2 Unproven hypothesis: it is increasing rather more rapidly than usual, over the last century or so.
3 Unproven hypothesis: increasing average global temperatures is a bad thing.
4 Unproven hypothesis: mankind's contribution is significant
5 Unproven hypothesis: feasible reductions in mankind's contributions will make an improvement, or at least slow the rate of increase, if it is increasing.
I don't think anyone argues with (1)
(2) is somewhat controversial, partly due to the 'hockeystick' controversy, and more generally lack of good evidence.
(3) is taken as read by many. That doesn't mean it is right.
(4) is somewhat controversial as many models ignore (or downplay) the rather large contribution from the variations in solar output. There is also some evidence that burning coal tends to increase the albedo of the Earth, reducing its temperature by reflecting more solar heat. There are estimates indicating that burning coal is actually reducing the net temperature.
(5) The pro Kyotoists say a small step in the right direction is worth taking. The others usually argue that the tiny positive effect is not worth the investment.
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Even those who have signed, have no clue what lies ahead and how to go about it. India and China, the large populations living on coal are practically exempt from the targets. Have they signed just as a token? Everyone seems to be sure, at least in India, that what they want more is some development now than a cooler environment 100 years down the line. Are the people sure in developed countries that they are willing to pay the price, the fruits of which may never come in their lifetime? And when such consent was taken? Or the governments are misleading the public?
This make one wonder whether the huge gala is for something real or just rhetoric.
Ciao.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The decisions about Kyoto and green house gasses etc. is going to be made by politicans and PHD types. The politicans are about money, the scientist have honest disagreements. We as engineers are maby a little more cognizant of what there talking about but not really involve other than in November (in the US that is).
I still think you gotta stop looking at it as a problem and look at it as an opportunity.
I recently did some work on a plant to process cow manure into ammonium nitrate. PArt of the reson was just to get rid of the gas, the other to get rid of the methane.
Whether you like it or not it's comming. We ( I talking to US engineers now) can build the processes and equipment to get it done, or let the _________ ( insert French, Indians, Russians Or whatever in the blanl).
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It was mainly achieved by moving from coal fired electricity stations to CCGT gas fired power stations, and was pretty painless for everyone except coal miners.
So meeting Kyoto doesn't necessarily result in economic penalties...
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
India, China, Brazil, Australia, the USA, and Lichtenstein, have not signed up to the Kyoto agrement.
Even though the USA has not signed up to Kyoto at this moment they are looking to 2012 to sign up to a Kyoto part 2 agreement, and are making steps at this time to reduce carbon emmissions with an unlikley alliance between green's and neo-cons, as they are called in the US (refer to the BBC and Channel 4 news in the UK). Including the 141 countries that have signed up to Koyoto Part 1, it seems that not every country thinks that global warming is junk science.
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
QCE, I really don't understand your position at all. What are you trying to get at? Your arguments are all over the place. I get the feeling that your assumption is that no advancement in emissions reduction technology can happen without government investment, and that it is a problem if the US government does not invest. If so, your assumptions are flawed and underestimate the power of the free market (IMHO). How would you answer your original question?
At least Greg Locock (as usual) has done a nice summary of the situation. Thanks Greg!
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
30 Kyotos would change life on the planet as we know it. Is that good or bad, I do not know, I have not seen the data to support something like that. I would think with something like that, we would have regulated breathing days where we would use CO2 strippers to regulate load. The cows that were discussed earlier...that would become a hugh problem, no need for them, the exponential growth of population to 2100 wont have use for them. I would see the engineering potential as I would love to be on the project team that designes the treatment systems for the various active volcanoes in the world. It seems like that is where we would have to focus a lot of effort with 30 Kyotos. Maybe so much so, that mans contributions would pale in comparison?????????? HMMMM what a thought....maybe we will have to factor out natural sources from the data AGAIN, to allow focus on the insignificant????
I was a part of the EPA review panel for the revisions to the Clean Air Act here in the US. I devoted a lot of time to the subject and one issue still sticks with me to this day. All the PhD's who were intpreting the data focused narrowly on one topic for days. It was a tremendous concern for them because their models predicted tremendous particulate loading that was going to lower the quality of life for millions around the world. They presented models, data, health statistics, then called the subject a "red herring" issue...Their solution, written into the 3rd or 4th draft of the ACT.....Use of outdoor gas and charcoal grills would need to be alternated during summer peak usage periods. A comprehensive plan to establish an enforcement scheme was critical to subsequent drafts of the act. Now, this is not in the current ACT, and I like to think I helped in some little way and get a good laugh everytime I use my grill.
It was at this point that I became aware as a professional and thus my fervour for understanding data and applying common sense to ints subsequent use to protect people.
We talked about indoor air pollution earlier, I think that to be a worthy undertaking since it impacts people directly and in a time frame that allows engineering to solve the problem. I would propose Kyoto - INDOOR, if the real benefit is to be for people.
QCE:
I think Californians are already suffering from poor decisions based on junk science. The worlds 4th largest economy is an the brink of bankruptcy.
I love my wind farm, but in reality, the capacity cannot begin to replace the base load requirements of the US and it will continue to be a frindge politically correct source for those people that wish to pay higher rates for green power.. I prefer nuclear power to coal, but love coal too. Gas turbines, where are we going with that? They make great peaking facilities which I think help to regulate emmissions at coal plants....But the impact here in the US with natural gas futures impacts people at their wallet. People switch to heat sources like coal, wood and oil as they become more affordable. With little or no environmental control in the home, I wonder...
I think if more of us lowely, non PhD engineers got involved in making people write policy that works and demand that politics remain at arms length in intpreting data...that would be worthy of our talents.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Can anyone provide a link to the actual data where we can see the CO2 impact, the chlorine impact, CFC impact, and other pertinent data? What are all of the greenhouse gases and how does the Treaty handle them. How are these data mapped into which climate models?
I agree with BobPE and the data does speak for itself. I think it would be helpful to this discussion if we could actually see the data.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Helios is the most significant player in the game.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Would the world have a better future if we just dropped the
global warming concern and not give it another though??
Since the Earths history is so old and many temperature
variations have happened before SUV's maybe we should just
assume that any warming or cooling is due to circumstances
outside of our control and just go on with economic prosperity
as our only motivating factor.
I find it hard to imagine the level of this conspiracy that
we are witnessing. Just today the Financial Times of London
is on board with more propaganda about this Gloabal Warming.
Every day it on some news channel. I doubt if the
government or business could devise such an effective campaign
Excuse me for now I am off to buy A larger SUV.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
These guys are really laying it on thick
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I was looking at Hummers, they are cleaner burning that most all of the cars on the road in China. The way I look at it is it will be that much sooner that fossile fuel reserves will be depleted, so in essence, you are doing a good thing for the environment by upping that SUV you have by burning as much fuel as possible through that environmental friendly motor, rather than leave the fule to be consumed by the smog belching cars in the developing world.........
Again, let the data guide you.....
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
One point that has been brought up several times that concerns me is the assumption that a technology developed by a Koyoto signatory would not be available to a non-signatory and vice versa. If the German wind turbines advance the art, then the world will beat a path to their door to acquire the new art in places where the technology makes economic sense. If a U.S. "cow fart" technology is more than an interesting sideshow, then it will be employed in signatory countries.
The discussion of California is an interesting one. One of the California utilities had a contract to buy power from a coal-fired plant near my house. When a law went into place that limited the power the Calfornia utility could get from coal-fired plants, the contracts were reshuffled and the power from here went to Phoenix while the offset requirement from an "acceptable" source was diverted from Phoenix to California. The rate per kWh in California tripled for that chunk of power - for a zero net improvement in the air quality of the planet. That is a real economic impact.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
That's what the Kyoto protocol has cost the world in order to achieve the potential of saving us 0.000009899 °C in temperature increases. The cost is going up fast. That's according to the Kyoto Count-Up over at
www.JunkScience.com
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
You post illustrates what I have been saying. Steve Milloy is an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. IF you think the Cato Isntitute is an unbiased organization you need to do more research.
Here' a couple of links on Steve Milloy. He was among other things a lobbiest for the tobacco companies. IF he gets paid enough he could find junk engineer to cover whatever it is you do.
http:
http://www.info-pollution.com/milloy.html
If your going to infromed you can't just read the bumper stickers. Given enough money you make anything look bad. If you don't have science on your side, hire engough spin doctors and go for press.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
In fact, your sourcewatch link is from the Center for Media and Democracy....not the most unbiased group either. (understatement)
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
If you mean living life large to mean living life with improved quality and minimal suffering, yes, that fits my thinking. It sounds like my middle ground is different than your middle ground, and that is ok...The concept of finding middle ground is the key to us all moving forward. A lot of people just don't realize that there is middle ground and that is a big part of the problem.
BobPE
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
We don't know much about global warming.
I personnelly don't have a great opinion on the Kyoto agreement. I don't ask weather it is good or not. I know that it is active in the world and I wonder how I can work with it and benefit from it.
I have pushed people in this thread that think they have all the answers but it was in an attempt to understand the logic.
My thinking for this thread was that the USA is usually leading the way in cutting edge technology. In the field of green power production I see them following behind other nations. On Feb 16th/05, 55 countries including the one I live in put Kyoto into effect. I belief that these countries are going to make a greater increase to green power production technology. This will likely cause the US to fall farther behind in this area. Of course the US can buy this technology. If you use that logic than the US should stop spending on reasearch and just let other countries do the research and then buy the technology.
Very few have commented on this.
I live in Canada and I am considering taking a masters program in Europe. After that I hope to work in the wind power industry. I was personnelly wondering if people thought that green power production was going to be improving in North America. I will probably end up working for a European company.
Hey maybe I'll be the guy selling the technology to the Americans that didn't want to spend money on research.
Maybe I will benefit from the US not joining Kyoto.
SMS wrote
"I get the feeling that your assumption is that no advancement in emissions reduction technology can happen without government investment, and that it is a problem if the US government does not invest."
I don't think that but I think that development has a better chance of happening with government backing. I think some of the 55 Kyoto countries will choose this route. That is were I may choose to look for my job.
Thanks for the debate. It has been interesting.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http://
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Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
Have you read FAQ731-376 to make the best use of Eng-Tips Forums?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Fossil fuels are a finite resource and so enormously valuable as a feedstock for the manufacture of things we need to make life bearable here on earth. Burning them in the wasteful way we do now isn't good engineering- it's pure idiocy.
Do a simple HazOp on global warming and you'll see why such an enormous number of nations are at least trying Kyoto:
- there's a possibility that the consumption of fossil fuels and other human activities will cause significant, detrimental and irreversible effects on the earth's climate. The vast consensus amongst climactic scientists agrees that although this connection is not ABSOLUTE or CERTAIN, it is credible if not probable
- the same activity creates other enormous harms: massive trade imbalances, wars to control resources, human health effects from smog and toxic combustion byproducts, etc.
- the majority of the behaviour is unnecessary: it's the result of WASTEFUL, unnecessary use of this finite resource for STUPID purposes
What we have here is a credible, even probable, scenario for an enormously detrimental outcome. Countermeasures would be strongly recommended, and mere cost wouldn't be allowed to set this aside...
And you're forgetting the obvious self-interest motivation here. Any idiot can solve a problem by throwing energy or materials at it- but it takes an ENGINEER to produce a safe, optimal solution. Putting an end to the wasteful use of energy could result in another golden age of engineering!
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I would like to comment on the fossil burners; the technology exists to improve the emissions to reasonable levels. Of course, the fine needs to be something that affects these companies. I would be willing to pay more for fuels if this were to really happen. Refineries are another big one that requires close attention. I live in an area with three of them and all of them are in violation of EPA standards. They just pay their little fine and carry on as normal. I looked at the EPAs site and was amazed at the POUNDS (Benzene, toluene? etc) of pollutants coming out of the stacks and in the ground water. It is appalling. People in the area of these refineries are suspect to high asthma rates AND cancer. They claim no link.
I am in the middle concerning the reduction of ozone, however. One of the big concerns I have has already been pointed out; the age of the earth compared to the length of time we have been industrialized. It just does not match. Weather is dynamic and is constantly changing. Let me illustrate; we had an ice age - presumably the ambient temp was very cold for a long time creating HUGE blocks of ice. As the temps slowly increase, the ice melts slowly but their mass is so large that it takes a while. We are merely just now getting back to normal as far as weather goes (ice almost all melted). I mean how can something as large as antartica freeze over thousands of years and then expect it to melt within the same amount of time? Not logical. You can not correlate affects of anything happening on the earth in the fraction of time we have been here.
As far as the US developing green power, we are doing this. Certainly not leading the area yet but I think we will. I see evidence in all the wind turbines up here in my neck of the woods. Also, George W increase the budget this year for green power development (hydrogen), maybe not enough but it was increased. He still wants to cater to big business so I don't expect much to happen with his administration. However, Exxon is providing funding for some green power research (so they told me when I interviewed with them a year ago).
Oh one other thing that I remember reading in this thread is someone supporting an International Court. I am totally opposed to this and am glad Bush is too. No offense but I see the rights of Europeans compared to those in the US and I like it better here, no need to drag their agenda into the US.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I think I'm going to run for the hills.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
2 Unproven hypothesis: it is increasing rather more rapidly than usual, over the last century or so.
3 Unproven hypothesis: increasing average global temperatures is a bad thing.
4 Unproven hypothesis: mankind's contribution is significant
5 Unproven hypothesis: feasible reductions in mankind's contributions will make an improvement, or at least slow the rate of increase, if it is increasing.
OK, now here's a link announcing a paper that should address 2 4 and 5.
http://
So when it comes out we can test its claims. I'll be interested to see what statistics they've used.
That still leaves point 3 unaddressed, given mankind's inherent conservatism I guess that we'll never see a sensible discussion of that.
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Good article, it will be interesting to see the data in the unamed "peer reviewed journal". Let's hope that the "journal" is not the "National Inquirer".
David
David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering
www.muleshoe-eng.com
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
The Plural of "anecdote" is not "data"
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The oceans could rise 23 ft in a matter of weeks.
Could be lots of engieering opportunities. Lots of opportunities for catographers as well.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
As for your career in wind power, don't under estimate the potential in the US. Wind may be a small part our our electric supply, but I bet we have more MW in wind generation in the US than Holland does.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The western half of North and South Dakota plus part of Nebraska have the wind energy to supply ALL the power the US requires. When the wind does't blow we'll all have to go home or develope some kind of hydrogen system to store power.
I heard this in a presentation by a Vesta engineer. If and when I find the source I post it.
I like the first option best, kind of the oppostite of "windfall" that developed in midevil times. But a day off is a day off.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I used to live in North Dakota and know the revelations about there being enough wind energy there to support the whole United States. The only problem is transporting that energy across a wire. Line losses will make it impossible to transmit the power over the United States. Of course super conducting wire will solve that problem.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http
Cheers
Greg Locock
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
A lot of government money went into these technologies in the 1970's in the US, and wind farms started popping up, as well as solar cells on peoples' houses. Without the government subsidies, however, the technology was not efficient enough to be self-sustaining, and the companies that produced the technology could not stay in business.
Like others have stated in this thread, I believe in the free market. If there is money to be made in the wind and solar business, then companies will get into that business and stay in business. Money can only be made if the technologies are efficient (i.e., you get more energy out than you put in). And if they are not efficient, then they are not "green energies" afterall.
Upon further reflection, let's group hydrogen fuel cells into this as well.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Technologies already exist in both sun and wind that pay for themselves in short time spans.
Also, as with any technology, as its popularity grows production costs will go down even further.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http://www.lcra.org/energy/windpower.html
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Again, it is necessary to define terms.
There are millions of square feet of PV cells in use in remote locations around the world today. This is a technology that (in full cycle costs) yields power for around $0.80/kWh. When you only need a few dozen kWh/year this price really beats the capital cost of running wires to the ram pasture. If I have to compare $0.10/kWh from a utility for my house, PV technology does not "pay for itself" - ever. Paying 8 times as much for each unit of power does not leave much room for recovering capital.
Wind has similar results. Hydrogen fuel cells only make sense if you can find a source of gas that does not have the power demands of electrolysis and you can find a way to transport/store the stuff. Geothermal projects occasionally make great sense, but often don't.
The "debate" is always that "wind (or solar, or waves) is free, so once you install your equipment you get 'free energy' forever". The reality is that the widget you're installing won't last "forever" (ever try to clean bird droppings or bullet holes from a PV cell?, it is often impossible and the cell has to be replaced).
The power you can recover during the operating period has to be "priced" at a unit price that recovers the capital during the operating period. While doing this analysis, remember that you will have calm/cloudy days, night happens, rain can last for weeks - you have to have backup systems to cover these contingencies (and the environmental impact of heavy-metal storage batteries is huge both in terms of toxic wastes and the fossil fuels used in their manufacture).
I've yet to see the generally-applicable "green" energy source that actually costs less per kWh than a coal-fired power plant can deliver the power. If you want that to happen, you have to provide government-policy incentives that make it painful to pollute or wonderful to avoid pollution. Koyoto just doesn't do that. Too many loopholes, political answers to technical questions, and poor assumptions.
David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering
www.muleshoe-eng.com
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
The Plural of "anecdote" is not "data"
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Given that 2000 miners are killed each year by coal dust then I think they've underestimated the benefit of using the alternative of wind power, to say the least.
The other arguments given by zdas04 just aren't worth the effort, to be frank, though I would recommend not shooting at the turbine blades.
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I'll choose to ignore that my comments are not worth the effort. Everyone will have their own opinion on that (by the way, the bullet holes actually are a frequent occurence solar panels in the U.S.).
MSNBC is always a fine technical source of information, I mean they even delared John Kerry the winner in the recent presidential elections based on the science of exit polling.
Can anyone figure the amount of generating capacity the boys at Stanford get for their $338 billion up front and $4 billion/year? I got lost in my assumptions.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
However, I find it astonishing that a country that has less than 5% of the world population, yet produces nearly one quarter of the world's CO2 emissions, considers it economically unviable to reduce them any, and even refuses to undertake not to increase them. The rest of the world looks to the US to take a lead in these, as in many other matters, and reducing usage of non-renewable fuels makes sense regardless of whether it leads to global warming or not. Whenever I have visited the US, which has been my priveledge on several occasions, I regular see what appears to be huge waste of energy resource. Not so much in industry, which (on the plants I have seen at any rate) are no better or worse than anywhere else in the world, but in people's daily lives. It is the lack of political will (in both political parties) to attempt to educate the public in energy reduction, that I find quite astonishing.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
When I lived & worked in the US, I was often amused by the perception of what it's like in Europe (and the very idea that 'Europe' is a single country!)...for example, compared to the UK arguably the only additional right in the USA is the right to own military style semi- automatic wepaons!
But the misconceptions go the other way too- a common sneer is the low percentage of Americans who have passports; well imagine if a passport wasn't needed to travel within Europe (not just the EU)..... the number of Brits with passports would drop drastically too, if a passport wasn't needed to go skiing in Swizerland or drinking in Ibiza!
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Ten-year demonstration project (FutureGen) to create the world's first coal-based, zero-emissions electricity and hydrogen power plant
www.climatetechnology.gov/library/ 2003/tech-options/tech-options-2-1-1.pdf
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
So once again QCE what evidence do you have that the US is falling behind in energy technology?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Do you have any links or references for this additional information? As you can see above, "studies" published in the popular media don't seem to carry much weight with this group. The "fact" that a "new" study exists supporting some facet of the Koyoto conference that is reported in Newsweek doesn't really add much to the discussion because few people here believe the popular press very much.
There are several links posted above that purport to be something that they really don't seem to be (at least no one has followed up with a link to a peer-reviewed publication). Whether Global Warming is: (1) a real, long-term trend; (2) caused by man; and/or (3) a danger to the planet are all contentions that many of us following this thread continue to be unwilling to accept on the evidence thus far presented.
I don't know who might be involved in a conspiricy, but short-sighted environmentalists and greedy scientists are as good a straw dog as any. I'd add self-serving media orginizations to the list. I'll never forget the scene early in the movie Armagedon where Greenpeace is in a boat which burns a couple of hundred gallons of diesel per hour picketing an offshore oil drilling rig--looks like short-sighted environmentalism to me.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
When I was a child all the farmers around me used to cut and store hay for the winter as feed for their cattle.
Over the years the summers have become very wet to a point where the farmers have been forced to abandon hay making and switch to silage.
Now even the silage harvesting falls behind time because the fields are to wet to drive on.
If I've seen this change in only twenty years, what is it going to be like in the next twenty?
It seems that too many people just want to bury their heads in the sand when this subject is raised
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Man, I hear the "bury their heads in the sand" slam often in this thread. I don't think that anyone participating in this forum actually falls into that category.
If I say "the 'science' behind this debate is flawed, and has been rife with outright fraud" I say it because that is what my review of the literature points to. If you disagree, I could say you have your head in the sand, but I won't.
If I say that the last ice age ended toward the end of the 1800's and that the record in the glacial ice suggests that there are several cycles documented where an ice age ends, the earth heats up steadily for many years to a peak, then cools until the next ice age begins.
The last time this happened it was called "The Renaissance" because the global warming had reduced the effort required to feed the population and enabled more effort to be applied to creativity and scholorship. In the period leading up to the Renaissance the population of mankind on the earth was very small compared to today, and the amount of carbon burned per capita was insignificant. The earth stil warmed and agricultural techniques evolved.
The climate does change. The glacial record is very clear on that. Where the discussion gets very murky is determining the impact of man on that change. The argument has been made several times above that the methane released from biological processes (termite mounds and cow farts are big sources mentioned) is a huge quantity that could dwarf the impact of man-made sources. Frozen vegtable matter in Alaska will eventually thaw (with or without our contribution) and release more CO2 than the average volcano. Oh yeah, volcanos are huge sources of "greenhouse gases" that will happen with or without our burning carbon products.
The changes in crop choices over 20 years are interesting, but the fact that these selections have changed does not necessarily prove that mankind burning carbon products was a contributor to the climate change that has been observed.
The Koyoto discussion is very much an arrogant assumption on the part of mankind that our trivial activities are the only possible cause of global change. There are local impacts that clearly seem to be man-made (but I wouln't be surprised if the occasional temperature inversion in the Los Angeles basin caused dinosaurs to cough and have their eyes water), but the proof that these effects are even regional is very tenous.
As my previous signature said "the plural of anecdote is not data". Observations and anecdotes are important indicators that something is hapening, they are not indicators of the root cause of those events. Personnaly, I'll keep my head in the sand of scientifically verifiable, reproducable facts and data. Pulling it out into the slime of the popular media is just too ugly.
David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering
www.muleshoe-eng.com
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.
The harder I work, the luckier I seem
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Take this global warming scam for instance. Dr. Mann (the guy who put forward the "hockey stick" chart that showed a long slow progression of cooling over the past centuries and then an abrupt upturn in the last 100 years) would never fully reveal his analysis or methods for study. In fact, messages passed around the eco-groups include all sorts of candid discussions about "getting rid" of data that don't back up their warnings or predictions.
The hockey stick is dead and one should always remember that ecology-minded groups rely on continual crises to keep the funding coming. And one big deep pocket that just wouldn't go along with the Kyoto treaty was the US (thankfully).
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
There have been benefits derived from the European and Japanese decision to accept Kyoto. That decision has added impetus to improve technologies that increase the efficiency of power plants , and in building systems ( lighting, hvac) that reduce energy consumption. Their decsion to penalize oil consumption ( by import fuel taxes etc) has also led to developing a transportation sector that is slightly less sensitve to sudden and permanent increases in the cost of oil, compared to the US.
As H Termuehlen has stated in his books on modern power plants, the US could reduce its CO2 emisson from coal fired power plants by over 30% by replacing nearly all existing units with modern, high efficiency units,but it is not likely that level of investment will be forthcoming.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Global Warming
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Thanks for the web site. It is hard for people to understand data and what it tells us and conversely, it is a lot easier just to manipulate it to tell a story of yours or others liking.
It is very dangerous when scientific research in censored and we should all be concerned as engineers. The referenced publications are more and more falling out of main stream scientific significance and are being relaged as mouth pieces for non scientists and persons with agendas. They should carry warning lables: "Use with caution, material may be non-scientific!" LOL
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
To read how Hnery Kissinger is a communist, how the royal family in the UK can get you cut-price heroin, and how global warming isn't happening, then visit http://w
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
PERC is an environmental-research organization whose basic tenets are:
- Private property rights encourage stewardship of resources.
- Government subsidies often degrade the environment.
- Market incentives spur individuals to conserve resources and protect environmental quality.
- Polluters should be liable for the harm they cause others.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
- private property rights encourage stewardship of resources ONLY IF a proper regulatory system exists to ensure this. Without regulation, an exhausted gravel pit becomes a natural toxic waste landfill from the point of view of a landowner: the land is useless for much else, and accepting toxic waste maximizes the owner's private gain from this otherwise worthless land. That's not "stewardship", that's a time bomb left for future generations to diffuse!
- government subsidies may well degrade the environment, but narrowly-defined economic cost/benefit analysis which assigns zero value to an ecosystem and equates human health with lawsuit costs does MORE harm than any government subsidy program I'm aware of. Businesses are algorithms for the maximization of profit, and cannot be counted on to do good out of conscience, so society needs a means to enter their economic equation and ensure that society's values are represented properly in the calculation of the "bottom line". Government is the voice of democratic society, and its role in both taxation AND subsidy is totally legitimate and necessary.
- market incentives spur individuals to conserve resources and protect environmental quality: yep, I buy that one, but only if all factors in the economic analysis have values associated with them. And clearly, government has a role in adjusting these values by means of taxation to ensure that all costs and impacts of economic activity are borne by those who consume the resources rather than by future generations or the public purse.
- polluters should be liable for the harm they cause others: wow, what a wonderful motherhood statement. But I bet these guys set the standard for the "proof of harm" so high that nobody would be liable for anything! And again, it becomes a major issue of values and definitions. Like who is the polluter- the consumer of the goods or the producer of the goods? And how do you assess the monetary value of human life, for instance? Or animal life? Or the balance of an ecosystem? Or genetic diversity? Or the extinction of species?
That said, I do agree with Crichton that environmentalism as practiced by certain nongovernmental organizations and famous individuals out there is a religion, plain and simple. It's full of absolutes (one of which is that human technology is somehow inherently suspect and evil), and takes little or no account of the fact that humans have a right to exist on the planet and use its resources. I have no patience for people who bring religion, whatever its nature, into public policy discourse.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Full of absolutes (one of which is that human technology is somehow hard to figure out), and that they think that humans have a right to use all of the worlds resources.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It probably wouldn't be a good idea if that is what you mean.
Well I started this thread to talk about alternative energy but made the mistake of putting the word "Kyoto" in the title.
I'm glad I don't live in Kyoto. Think of all the bad press.
People get so worked up trying to prove there point on global warming that it is perfect for these kind of threads. People can argue in circles for years on this stuff. The fact is that we don't currently know what is going on.
The Kyoto accord was basically a political tool for governments to bring in emission reducing goals.
I personnelly belief that reducing emissions is good.
Therefore I'm proKyoto. That doesn't mean I believe that global warming is occuring.
It really has nothing to do with global warming. Governments need reasons to do things these days. The reason for reducing emssions is simple to say global warming. People buy it and the government gets reelected.
It is like someone said earlier:
"It is not science it is politics."
I'm not saying that politics is a good thing just that it is something.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The emphasised portion is the most honest said in this thread.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
There are enough PROVEN harmful consequences of this idiotic wasteful energy consumption behaviour that frankly global warming need not be one of them. But so far, thousands dying yearly from smog in my city hasn't been enough to motivate people and governments to take action to reduce fossil fuel consumption in any significant way. If the global warming bogeyman is more effective at doing so, frankly I don't care whether or not it's real.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Let science prevail....and data rule....
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The truth is that there will never be enough logical proof to prove things like this to everyone.
I'm not saying weather it is right or wrong to join the accord. I'm just saying that Bob seems to think that the USA didn't sign on because of science.
The fact remains that the USA is the world's largest polluter and even if there was plenty of evidence to prove global warming I still doubt it if the USA would agree to sign the Kyoto Accord. It is not for scientific reasons that this did not happen it is political.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Also, moltenmetal - I just don't agree with your underlying logic (hope I'm interpreting you correctly here): That if there is suspect risk of something bad happening then we should ere on the safe side and do something right away to avoid the risk at all costs. The reason I'm reluctant to have this knee jerk reaction to risks is that over and over again we have done this sort of thing only to have even worse results occur. And we never really know what the true risks are of doing something, doing everything, or doing nothing. Too many times we screw it up even worse.
Take DDT - banned because we "thought" that there was a big risk. What happened? Millions of people have died from Malaria due to an increase in mosquitos. And now there is serious doubt that DDT was as dangerous as once thought.
There isn't a "significant risk of something enormously bad and irreversible resulting from our wanton consumption of fossil fuels". The air in the USA is cleaner now than it has been in years. We have responded to the issues in measured, science-based ways. We have more trees in North America today than have been in hundreds of years. All this with an increase in fossil fuel usage.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I do love how people are so outraged by one side not producing facts and then they launch into a bunch of arguements supporting their point of view without any facts.
By "air is cleaner" do you mean less smog or less emmissions. Because less emmissions is just wrong. I also heard this stuff on CNN. Please post the CNN website to back up your arguements. CNN home of the science based reporting. I would also like to see the tree thingy. I live in a logging community. I would like to see what they consider a tree. For every full grown tree that gets cut down they plant a few seedlings. However a seedling is not really a tree as it has a small chance of making it. I'm sure you would agree if you saw a 500 year old cedar tree next to a seedling.
For your info DDT is banned in the USA not the world. Some nations still use it.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Good deal, except the article went on to say that the junk in the air had been reflecting a lot of UV and the doctors were reporting increased skin problems and the average temperature in the basin was increasing.
I'm all for not polluting. I've done numerous big projects that reduced emissions significantly in my little world (tons of improvement, not kilotons). I'm all for mainimizing total energy converted to unused waste-heat (I've been working on beneficial-use projects as long as I've been in engineering). The economics of not venting saleable gas and of capturing waste heat are never stellar, but they often meet hurddle rates.
It is simply amazing to me that the politicans can make policy on "Dan Rather Science" when the marketplace will always eventually eliminate wasteful processes (sometimes "eventually" takes a long time though).
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
President Bush and Michael Crichton can keep their heads buried in the sand all they want...just wait about 10 years when China and India are "swamped" with cars and factories...you will see the effects of global warming then.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I remember watching him anchor the evening news back in the 1980's as he read a story about nuclear power. The story itself was written in a straightforward matter-of-fact manner. The anti-nuclear point of view was discussed, and at the end of the segment he said that the nuclear industry claimed that nuclear power was safe.
Then he added, "Of course nobody believes that anymore." This was while he was reading the news, not during an opinion or an editorial segment.
I quit watching because I no longer trusted Rather's ability to remain objective. So did many other Americans - CBS News was usually in last place while Rather was the evening anchor.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
What an awsome tag line...Dan Rather Science....Thank you for that, I am going to have to add that to my arsenal of catch phrases!!!!!
As far as the US it is like which came first, the chicken or the egg....In the US the science came first, then politics took over and we rightfully avoided the Kyoto disaster.
I do watch China and I agree, there is a big problem brewing there...not as much with global warmning since there is not data to support that, but with the deterioration of the quality of life for the poor people in that country.
May Dan Rather can fix the problem there....
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
With all the emission controls that the US now has, with none required in many countries - I just find it hard to believe that the US leads the world in "pollution". Just a joke - but maybe the US emissions are cleaner that other emissions - but I'm beyond my own knowledge here I admit.
Good website on forests (note this is forests, not total trees): http://w
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
BTW..I don't waste my time watching the evening news any more.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Sound like a politicain with things like: We emit the most emmissions but we are not the biggest polluter. Our emmissions are cleaner then other places emmissions.
Your arguement shows that you just watch the news and spout facts. If you look at release of almost every emmission including ground and water contaiminents. The USA is very high on the list if not number one.
Well guess what people the news is also political. It is not always based on science. News facts are not always scientific facts. They are sometimes scientifc but always with considerable spin. People can make the data show what ever they want.
That is why this discussion will go on and on.
How about these questions:
Is it good to reduce total emmisions in the environment?
Is it possible to reduce emmisions without economic damage to the reducing countries economy?
I would say yes it is good and yes it is POSSIBLE to do it economically. So we have a problem to solve. Well we are engineers and we should get on with solving it.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I have personally done something about it, but I have no conrol over the thousands of idiots in this country (USA) who drive a full-size truck with a huge engine in stop-and-go traffic to work every day.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM340NKPZD_index_0.html
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Dan Rather??? you want him, we will ship him to France for people to enjoy there...he is about as one sided as they come. And I love my big 4x4 F250 with a big block 460 motor, but you are right, holding that clutch in stop and go traffic is a real pain....
QCE: To put your argument in simpler terms, I would rather a barrel of fuel oil (coal, natural gas, etc.) be burned in the US than in China. We will emit less pollutants on a whole for that barrel of oil.
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http://www.vulcanhammer.org/spp/solution.php
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
But what do I know... I'm just an idiot who drives a K2500 Silverado with a 454 Big Block to work.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Typical commute to work: (in the fast lane) - accelerate to 60 mph, slow to complete stop for about 10 seconds every 1/4 mile, repeat - average speed = 25 mph. Does it make sense to have an overweight vehicle with a 400 ci engine for this?
Now I am an engineer, and the above doesn't make sense to me at all. Most trucks in cities are bought for "vanity" purposes.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
If you have a 400+ ci engine spewing out double the exhaust volume than a normal engine, you are spewing out twice the pollution, irregardless. The emissions law are written only for ppb per given volume, not for crud/per hour. As usual, the USA gov't is confused about the real issues. They are on a tight leash being yanked by Big Corporation.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
So I should want less fuel burned here in our clean Hummer engines and more fuel burned in dirtier Chinese engines? Tha is Kyoto at a consumer level.....What nonsense, you are right!!!!
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The government, or more to the point, the people in government, are acting quite logically towards their objectives. The illogic comes is assuming that their objective is based on your desires.
==> As usual, the USA gov't is confused about the real issues. They are on a tight leash being yanked by Big Corporation.
The USA government is not alone by any means, and the real issue is economics. Every government seeks its own best interests, and economics is always at, or very near, the top of the list.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The USA has been trying to reduce emmissions by increasing the efficiency of emmission reducing equipment. This is a good step. However they have kept increasing the amount of fuel burned. The total emmissions in the USA are still going up. Therefore it is not an ideal system.
The best way would be to reduce consumption and improve efficiency of filters, scrubbers, esp's, etc.
I think the best way for the consumption to go down is for the price of gas to keep increasing. In Canada we pay $3.20US/1USgal. What is the price in the US? I would guess around $2.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Nothing wrong with economics driving Government policy - the problem in the USA is a few very powerful corporations driving it to destruction for their short-sighted, greedy objectives a la Enron / Caspian Basin oil exploitation disaster.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
When Kerry (in the only point he and I ever agreed upon) said that he would put a $2/gallon tax on gasoline to pay for his silly programs he was shouted off the stage and never mentioned it again. That would do more to reduce emissions than a hundred Koyoto's, but it would never get out of Congress.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
As long as the world economy is based of oil, the price rising will only induce economic hardship on those that are at the lower end of society and can not afford the cost...should we balance emmissions on their back while the rich continue to use oil...I don't think that is the answer as long as there is oil to be had. We are about 2.15 us dollars average where I am at...
I would still rather see the an equivelent volume of oil burned in the US using clean technology than somewhere else, like China and their paper tiger Euro1 emissions program or south and central america where even a paper tiger emission program would be better than what they have.
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
If gas went to $4/gal I think people would start selling their Ford 350's.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The reality is that China is gobbling up huge amounts of oil from Venezuela, Iran and eventually the Caspian Basin area. The USA can't do anything to stop that, especially with their outlandishly incompetent foreign policy has gotten most of the world angry.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I agree that China is a black hole consuming every resource in sight, including oil, with little or no oversight by the world community, let alone the US. And I have to agree that China's foreign policy is a joke...and is getting to the point where us professionals are the first to see the problem on the horizon.....but Kyoto supports China's behavior....
QCE...So, I sell the F250, and save 100 bbls of oil a year. That oil goes to China and gets burned there....the environment would have been better off with me keeping that F250 since once China burns that oil and create those increased emmissions, I can't get them back.
Lets say I got a bike and burned no oil. China burned what I saved...where are we going???? My point is to put all the oil through the cleanest equipment possible...I dont care how much that clean equipment uses because for everything it does not use dirty equipment will.
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Whereas that may be true, the total emissions per capita is the USA is going down. The rate of population increase in greater than the per capita emission rate decrease. I would also point out that whereas the USA is still the world's largest emitter in real tonnage, the USA is no longer the largest per capita emitter, and its share has been cut almost in half to about 25% of the world's total emissions. Yes, there is more that can be done, and should be done, but the USA is not behaving nearly as irresponsibility as many would like to believe.
==> the problem in the USA is a few very powerful corporations driving it to destruction for their short-sighted, greedy objectives a la Enron / Caspian Basin oil exploitation disaster.
True, but what industrialized nation is not at the mercy of large corporations? That problem is not unique to the USA. It is a problem for all nations, especially industrialized nations, where the GDP is so affected. The problem will also get much worse as countries, such as China and India, become more and more industrialized, therefore, increasing their economic dependance on large corporations.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I think most people will agree that reducing consumption of oil/ energy is good regardless of the country!
Apparently not burning the oil at all is not an option. Apparently China using the same equipment as the USA is not an option.
Apparently all those Asian cars in the USA are smog machines.
Apparently the world cooperating on emission reduction is not an option.
Thanks for being so open minded.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Most people would agee with you QCE, reduction in oil usage does not make the oil go away however. This is not the first time someone missed my point...thats ok though...
I think Asin cars that are imported into the US meet current EPA emission standards quite well...Even though they may be smog machines in Asia as you claim we have pretty stringent standards here.
Why would China use the same equipment as us, why in the world would they possibly want to do that to make us feel better? Certainly not for econoimic reasons, they are not going to spend a government dime on something that willmake them no money nor will they require industry to do anything and jepordize their production???? Possibly to open up control of the country to their own people and make life better for their people...yes....that must be the reason, and China would be all for that...I am thinking they could give a rats ass about the environment,,,,
And I dont think we have come up with a way to cooperate in the world on emissions...Kyoto pretty much proved that for the time being....
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Why does this discussion have to get acromonius? No one said that Asian vehicles imported into the U.S. are smog machines. Quite the contrary, as a group they have better emisisons numbers than U.S. made vehicles (because as a fleet they have lower hp). A Toyota in Bejjing will not have the same emissions control equipment as one in California because there are no regulations to cause the consumer to bear the excessive extra costs of that equipment. I understand that the government of China really wants to clean up their air, but the hurddle of getting hundreds of millions of people into the 20th century (to say nothing of the 21st) is slowing the progress on that front.
Cooperation from the world will always end up with the substitution of politics for science. It ain't helping.
The article that I mentioned yesterday evening is at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4520831.stm it is a pretty even-handed report by the BBC which suggests that global dimming has stopped over Europe and North America and gotten worse over China and India.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
As I said in a separate thread, the US manufacturers should try to incorporate their innovations, instead of trying to save their arses by pushing big trucks on the US public. American cars are generally of such poor quality, I suspect that is why many Americans buy a big truck rather than an American car.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
This is basically the arguement that I am hearing from some. It is pretty hard to reply to this type of logic.
Step up and be a world leader.
Actually China adopted the Euro 1 emission standard in January 1999, engine management systems and catalytic converters have become a must for domestic cars to meet emissions standards.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Can anyone find me more info on this volcano stuff:
I've heard such funny numbers on this fact.
Many websites say that the CO2 from a volcano is not the issue it is the sulfur emitted. However one website I found said that the CO2 emitted from a volcano is more in one day then from humans in the last 500 years.
Sulfur that is bad but some websites say that the sulfur emitted is a lot more then others.
Check this out:
Washington state's top polluter isn't a pulp mill, a power plant or refinery. It's the newly awakened Mount St. Helens. Since the volcano began erupting in early October, it has been pumping out 50 to 250 tons a day of sulfur dioxide, the lung-stinging gas that causes acid rain and contributes to haze.
Those emissions are so high that if the volcano were a new factory, it probably couldn't get a permit, Clint Bowman, an atmospheric physicist for the Washington Department of Ecology, told The Seattle Times.
All of the state's industries combined produce about 120 tons a day of the noxious gas.
Normally, the state's No. 1 polluter is a coal-fired power plant near Centralia owned by the Canadian firm TransAlta. The plant churned out 200 tons a day of sulfur dioxide until regulators demanded $250 million worth of renovations, bringing the level down to 27 tons a day.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It maybe hard to prove this one also.
More info found but not saying it is 100% reliable:
Worldwide, sulfur dioxide emissions from volcanoes add up to about 15 million tons a year, compared to the 200 million tons produced by power plants and other human activities.
Worldwide, people and their activities pump 26 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year into the atmosphere, he said. The total from volcanoes is about 200 million tons a year — or less than 1 percent of the man-made emissions.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The US lowers both taxes and emissions standards for the civilian equivalents of military vehicles. Simple fairness demands that those who seek special privileges should earn them by providing special services in return. Any person who insists on driving a vehicle that weighs over 6000 pounds and gets 10 miles per gallon has no right to complain if Uncle Sam sends his ride on a tour of duty to guard oilfields for a year.
All owners should be allowed to volunteer to go to Iraq themselves in lieu of their vehicles if they to wish to spare their beloved machines from dangerous and dirty duty in a distant land.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
COMMENT: Even as oil costs rise, horsepower trumps ecology
http:/
You'll also notice Toyota and Honda are now building and selling full size Trucks. Why? They make money off them. By the way, compare the fuel economy and emissions on these vehicle with their US counterparts.
Chris
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It is because I use it as a truck... novel idea. Haul firewood? No problem. Haul landscaping supplies? No problem. Help you move? No problem (as long as there is beer and pizza involved).
In short, I have a truck because I need a truck. Not all truck/SUV drivers are the enemy here folks. Would you rather I own five vehicles? One for each purpose? That wouldn't be environmentally OR economically sound.
You know what, just tear all of the emissions crap off of a smaller engine and it would have as much power as my 454. Smaller engines mean less pollution, correct?
End rant.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I read in the new paper (off beat environmental one I get) that the EPA is considering suing mother nature to clean up her act... Actually, natural emmissions are excluded from determination of overall pollutant loadings because one would find immediately that mans contribution is nill. It is a data trick that I personally find outrageous. The "volcano" numbers are the most basterdized sets of data I have seen yet, but I would think the numbers you are seeing are some type ofe time averaged loading to downplay the major emissions during activity or erruptions. Volcanoes are aslo a major source of stratospheric chlorine...remember the ozone hole our spray can propellents caused? I enjoy taking a hard look at the non-mainstream (and usually scientific) end of the argument, as you can probably tell...
China is a big pollution monster...if you don't believe that then you are right, why argue...
American cars got a lot better in the last year sacreBleu, we gave renault back ...
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
http://ww
To the defence of americans, they are ranked third in the world for spending on pollution control, though they do have cause to. I don't see much in general to bash the chinese or french though but those shifty-looking Luxemburgers need watching!
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I agree that China is a fairly big polluter considering it has the largest population in the world and is in the process of developing.
However I don't think a developed country with 1/4 the population that has larger emissions should use them as an excuse not to clean up their act. It is childish. "Why should we clean up if they aren't going to?" This is one of the big reasons why the US did not ratify Kyoto.
"mans contribution is nill"
This is the information I'm looking for. I actually believe it is probably correct but I'm looking into it. I want to see the data used for the volcano arguement.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Let me dig my references out and I will see if I can get you onto that volcano track, it hase been a few years since I looked at that meterial.
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I would consider it lucky that it is only energy production. If it included transportation emissions. The USA would be far gone. It is hard to find this type of data. I think you will be hard pressed to find current data that is this thorough. I would not expect much difference in current numbers. With China bringing in all those large hydro projects I'm not sure what there energy emissions would look like.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon.html
This site shows some data on CO2 from petrol burning for each country listed upto 2002.
The USA is about 4X that of the USA or 16X per capita.
It is also interesting to note that the USA is 25% of the world emission from burning petrol. The USA is less then 5% of the world population.
Top World Oil Consumers, 2003*
Country
Total Oil Consumption
(million barrels per day)
1) United States 20.0
2) China 5.6
3) Japan 5.4
4) Germany 2.6
5) Russia 2.6
6) India 2.2
7) South Korea 2.2
8) Canada 2.2
9) Brazil 2.1
10) France 2.1
10) Mexico 2.1
*Table includes all countries that consumed more
than 2 million bbl/d in 2002.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I am not French. I do have an open mind about what is being done in other countries. (Something you never see on American major network news )
Genset Guy -
Didn't mean to offend you. If trucks are needed to haul stuff, that's cool. I got the impression (based on some local info) that a substantial number of folks in the big SW USA city where I live buy big trucks for "vanity" purposes.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I don't remember calling you French...if I did I am sorry, my bad...I too keep an open mind, but I do not mince words when it comes to telling it like data tell me to see it with regard to other countries policies....and you can't be daying the FOX network isn't fair and balanced...LOL
I drive my Corvette for vanity reasons...my truck is just a daily beater..but they all pass emissions testing every year....and have all the OEM emissions equipment in working order....
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
From Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Petroleum, Natural Gas, Coal, and the Flaring of Natural Gas, All Countries, 1980-2002, for the year 2002, the per capita numbers are as follows:
1 Gibraltar 144.11
2 Virgin Islands, U.S. 114.55
3 Netherlands Antilles 52.89
4 Qatar 46.08
5 United Arab Emirates 43.53
6 Bahrain 33.07
7 Singapore 27.22
8 Kuwait 25.49
9 Trinidad and Tobago 23.71
10 Luxembourg 22.96
11 Australia 21.00
12 United States 19.97
13 Canada 18.92
14 Netherlands 15.94
15 Brunei 14.83
It also show that the per capita consumption in the US has been going down over the last several years.
==> It is also interesting to note that the USA is 25% of the world emission from burning petrol.
That's true, but just a couple of years ago, the USA share was almost 45%.
I agree that it's hard to come by reasonable numbers that we call can agree on. All of the numbers that I've seen show that the USA is making progress as fast, if not faster, than any other region or country. Per capita emissions are down, overall world emission share is down and things are moving in the right direction. There still is a long way to go, but the USA, and other as well, are moving in the right direction.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Could a vehicle made in 1995 not pass the 2005 emissions controls in the USA? Has the technology improved that much in 10 years?
I will look at the Euro 1 emission standards vs the USA standards and the Canadian standards. I will have to find the high and low for the USA and Canada per state/province. The good sign is that appears that everyone is improving.
Does the USA have an emission reduction target on a country wide basis or is it only state by state?
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The US system focuses intense efforts in what are called EPA non atainment zones. the zones cross state lines and all states affected must meet stricter standards for emissions control.
I do not believe China meets Euro 1 standards, they wont verify and they do not share data that would look bad...the joy of communism I guess....
Bob
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
The big hydro projects in China are bringing clean energy (at a significant price of displaced farmers and fishermen) to a very few locations. The country is unimaginably large and the electric grid is very limited.
David
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Ok the China vs USA emissions comparison thing has come up with some intersting debate.
Do you think it is a valid arguement that the USA won't ratify Kyoto because it does not make China, India and Brazil reduce greenhouse gas emissions in its first round?
China and India have both signed onto Kyoto if I recall. However they don't have targets in the first round of reductions.
I really think that we should have a worldwide agreement on emissions. Kyoto is as close as we have come. I think the USA could have given it some strength. It will be interesting to see what the results are in 2012.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
It's difficult to compare China with the USA, however, as China is classed as a developing country, and as such was exempt from the Kyoto agreement.
corus
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
That part of it. Another part is the economic cost to meet the goals outlined for the USA. When you look at what it would cost the USA to meet its government and treaty imposed objectives, in conjunction with the exceptions allowed to other countries, the USA would be spending a tremendous amount of money locally, with very little world-wide effect or improvement. In essense, the treaty front-loads objectives and costs to the USA, with very little benefit to the global environment.
Of course China and India signed the treaty, as they are exempt from compliance. Russia didn't ratify the treaty until being granted exemptions as well. There are provisions in the treaty for one country to 'buy' unused emissions from another country. In other words, it allows a developing nation to sell its emissions quota to an industrialized nation. That's nothing but a handout, with again, no benefit to the environment.
At the end of the day, the treaty is nothing but political fluff, and does nothing to address the real environmental issues. It simply moves money around.
Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
Yes.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
I thought reducing emissions was the environmental issue. I agree that the treaty should have been more focussed on technilogical advances then on other factors. Well we will see how things go. I think the USA will be involved at some point when the money starts to fly.
RE: Will Kyoto cause the US problems?
That is supposed to be the issue. However, one has to wonder how seriously committed they are to that when several countries are granted quota exemptions, and any country can buy unused quota from a nation which is under their quota.
It seems to me that if you're serious about the environment, you don't allow either of these.
** NOTE **
No more posts in this thread. Use the other Kyoto II thread which is a continuation of this discussion